New REBNY report shows strong Manhattan office occupancy numbers

Published

2 years ago

July 20, 2023

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In the summer of 2022, the 1.7 million square-foot office tower at 787 Seventh Avenue was less than 20% occupied by employees of such tenants as BNP Paribas, Sidley Austin and Willkie Farr.

Aldo Sohm Wine Bar, a sister restaurant to three-Michelin-star Le Bernardin, struggled to draw a lunch crowd. But now, 787 Seventh is mostly full except on Fridays, according to CBRE power-broker Howard Fiddle, the buildings leasing agent.

They brought their people back midweek, Fiddle said. And Monday is picking up too.

Le Bernardin chef-owner Eric Ripert, whose restaurant is on the ground floor of 787, confirmed the welcome trend,which he termedgreat news for the wine bar in the building arcade.

The 787 Seventh office influx illustrates broad findings of the Real Estate Board of New Yorks new Manhattan Office Building Visitation Report, to be released Monday.

The data present a more optimistic and nuanced picture than what Durst Organization principal David Neil called certain gloomy headlines about the slow-but-steady office-return trend as more companies, especially in finance and law, bring their staff in at least three days a week — and others plan to make it four.

The REBNY study corrects the common misconception that current occupancy rates cited in surveys (including REBNY’s own and the oft-cited Kastle Systems Back to Work Barometer) are based on what many people believe were full offices before COVID hit.

However, REBNY points out, It would be inaccurate to define full recovery of the office market as returning to 100% occupancy — which it calls a goal line that never existed. In fact, pre-pandemic offices were only occupied by employees at 80% of their total capacity for around four days a week.

Attendance plummeted to under 10% of pre-COVID levels during the pandemic and has since rebounded — although not to 2019 levels. But how strong the recovery has been is open to interpretation.

REBNY used proprietary data from Placer.ai to measure a sample of 50 key Manhattan office buildings (Placier.ais algorithm identifies employees mobile-device visits). It found that employee office visits Tuesday through Thursday in the first five months of 2023 averaged 68% of 2019 levels — much higher than Kastles roughly 50% Manhattan estimate.

The numbers dropped on Mondays to 56% of what they were in 2019 and 37% on Fridays, according to REBNY.

A different REBNY metric called same-day comparison, which compares certain specific days such as the first Friday of April 2023 to the first Friday of April 2019, cited an even higher percentage of pre-pandemic attendance — 73%.

REBNYs director of market data Keith DeCoster, who wrote the report, said it makes even clearer that employee visitation rates continue to rebound strongly during mid-week days, while total office building visitation rates are also growing throughout the week, even amid hybrid work policies.

The total visitation data include visits to office building components such as stores, restaurants, galleries and medical facilities. The survey included them because office buildings have a bigger impact on the economy than offices alone, DeCoster said.

Fiddle strongly endorsed the REBNY findings.

I believe the return-to-office numbers are empirically up,” he said. “Nobody says theyre seeing fewer people in the office.

He noted that Midtowns Class-A properties are in a stronger position than in Midtown South or Downtown because financial and law firms want their people back.”

“Walk up or down Park Avenue and everythings full, Fiddle said.

Not so in other parts of Manhattan with tech and creative industries, which can more easily adapt to remote work.

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What you need to know about Donald Trump’s Gaza plan

Published

2 hours ago

February 5, 2025

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What you need to know about Donald Trump's Gaza plan

Donald Trump’s announcement that he wants to “develop” Gaza and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East” has been described as “absurd” and “entirely unrealistic”.

During a joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu late on Tuesday, Mr Trump proposed that the two million people living in Gaza could be moved to Jordan, Egypt – and beyond.

Gazans hit back at Trump’s plan; US latest

While it is not clear how Gaza will be rebuilt when the current conflict between Hamas and Israel ends – it is equally uncertain how the US would come to “own” Gaza, resettle its population, and redevelop the land.

What did Trump say about the Gaza Strip?

Mr Trump described Gaza as a “demolition site” where “virtually every building is down”.

Laying out his idea of what would happen beyond an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, he proposed: “The US will take over the Gaza Strip and we will do a job with it too.”

He said America would be “responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site”, before it would “get rid of the destroyed buildings”, and “level it out”.

He envisioned an “economic development”, which he described as the “Riveria of the Middle East” – that would create thousands and thousands of jobs”.

“Everybody I’ve spoken to loves the idea of the United States owning that piece of land, developing and creating thousands of jobs,” he added.

The White House has described the plan as “out-of-the-box” and “visionary”.

What about the population?

Gaza’s two million people would not return to their territory under Mr Trump’s plans.

Instead, he suggested building “various domains” for them to “permanently… live out their lives in peace and harmony instead of having to go back and do it again”.

This could take the form of “numerous sites” or “one large site”, he added.

The only locations he mentioned by name were Jordan and Egypt, which he said, despite their leaders consistently refusing to resettle more Palestinian refugees, would “give us the kind of land we need to get this done”.

He described the new sites as a “beautiful area to resettle people, permanently in nice homes, where they can be happy and not shot… and killed… like what’s happening in Gaza”.

He said “neighbouring countries of great wealth” could finance them – without stipulating to what extent this would involve the US.

There were no details on whether the plans change the current US position of a two-state solution for the Israeli and Palestinian people.

Who controls Gaza – and who has occupied it in the past?

Gaza has been under the control of Hamas since 2007 – after it dominated the 2006 elections and subsequent violent clashes with fellow Palestinian group Fatah.

The area made up of Gaza, Israel, and the West Bank has a long and complicated history – with both Israel and Palestinians laying claim to various parts of it.

In 1917, the British took control of what was then known as Palestine from the Ottoman Empire.

Under the Balfour Declaration, they promised to create a Jewish homeland there.

Jewish people then began migrating to the region in large numbers – accelerated by the threat of Nazism in Europe and the Second World War, which created tension with the Palestinian people already living there.

When the United Nations was set up after the war in 1947, it proposed a partition plan – whereby roughly 45% of the land would belong to the Palestinian people and 55% to Jewish people. Jerusalem, which has particular sensitivities because of its religious significance to both sides, was proposed as a separate international territory.

This plan was never actioned – and instead – the state of Israel was declared in 1948.

The Arab-Israeli war that broke out immediately after the declaration saw 750,000 Palestinian people forced from their homes in what was known as the Nakba – or “catastrophe” in English. They were given refugee status by the UN and fled to neighbouring countries.

The Palestinians retained control of two small areas – what we now know as Gaza and the West Bank.

During the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel occupied Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. They also took control of the Golan Heights, an area belonging to Syria. This saw hundreds of thousands more Palestinians forced from their homes.

During his first presidency, Donald Trump recognised Israel’s control of the Golan Heights.

Different groups have fought for control of Gaza since then – including Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

There was hope for a two-state solution – one Israel and one Palestine – when their leaders signed the Oslo Accords committing to peace in the region within five years.

This never materialised, however, and Gaza has become increasingly cut off from outside resources.

The UN runs refugee camps for millions of displaced Palestinians – both inside Gaza and the West Bank – and in the neighbouring countries of Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.

Before the 2023 war broke out between Israel and Hamas, tensions were high among Palestinian communities as Israel continued to expand settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Trump Gaza plan ‘absurd’ and US has ‘no authority’

Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, which as fellow Arab nations support the Palestinian cause, immediately rejected Mr Trump’s ideas.

They, along with Syria and Lebanon, are already struggling to support millions of displaced Palestinians.

Hamas described the proposals as “ridiculous and absurd” in a statement from one of its officials Sami Abu Zuhri.

The Palestinian Liberation Organisation reiterated its support for a two-state solution.

Sky News Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall said the plans have left politicians and diplomats across the region “speechless”.

“It’s entirely unrealistic for so many reasons,” he says.

Forcing Palestinians from Gaza would breach their right under international law to self-determination – and would constitute ethnic cleansing, he adds.

It would also, according to the chair of the UK’s Defence Select Committee, Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood, require “a minimum of 50,000” US troops in the region for several years.

This would prove a “massive logistical challenge”, as US military resources in other parts of the world have to be redirected there.

It is also out of step with Mr Trump’s previous indications he wants to scale back US involvement in the Middle East – and adopt a more protectionist foreign policy.

Many Gazans have endured horrendous living conditions in the hope Gaza will be rebuilt as part of an independent Palestinian state.

As such, most would not want to leave, Bunkall says, adding: “Ask any Gazan and they will tell you it is their home, however hellish.”

The international community has been involved in the rebuilding of war-torn countries throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. In this sense, the US could be mandated as a “reconstruction power” in Gaza.

However, in cases such as post-Second World War Germany or Japan – allies handed back the territory after rebuilding – not resettled their residents elsewhere.

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