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On 20 July, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.

The Conservative Party’s implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election.

Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England.

The results will give an insight into how voters view the government’s effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it’s time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. But, as ever, by-elections develop their own character and local priorities can intervene.

So, what’s at play in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton?

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Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Established in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then. Boris Johnson won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.

A suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The area hasn’t experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour’s favour.

The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. That said, look a little closer and it’s an inconsistent picture.

Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing.

These differences may be one reason why Uxbridge has been ‘sticky’ at election time. In 2019 Boris Johnson was defending the smallest majority of any prime minister since 1924, just over 5,000 votes. Despite Labour’s best efforts he increased that to over 7,000. It means Labour need an eight-point swing, just half that suggested by the national polls, to win the seat for the first time.

But, as ever at by-elections, it might not be that simple.

The most recent elections in the constituency were for Hillingdon Council in 2022 and the results showed little enthusiasm for Labour, despite a record Conservative defeat across the capital on the same day.

Labour won just one of the seven wards that sit entirely within the constituency – Yiewsley. To succeed on 20 July, they need to maximise their vote there and persuade the students of the Colham and Cowley ward to turn out.

But there’s a local factor dominating the contest that could render the national politics largely irrelevant.

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The Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a tax on cars which don’t meet certain emissions standards, is being extended by London’s Labour mayor to cover the area in August. Unlike inner London, this is a constituency where around four in five households have a car and one in three have two or more. The issue has prompted two of the extensive list of 17 candidates to change their names to include the phrases “Anti-ULEZ” and “No-ULEZ”.

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties. It gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox. The Conservatives will hope voters read to the end as their candidate is listed last thanks to his place in the alphabet.

With a declaration not expected until after 3am, those watching Sky News will have plenty of time to consider the turnout. Invariably lower at by-elections than general elections, there’s no way of knowing why people do and don’t vote or who did and didn’t. However, we can estimate a reasonable figure.

Based on contests so far this parliament, we expect turnout to be around 27 points lower than in 2019 in all three constituencies. For Uxbridge that means something in the region of 40%.

Selby and Ainsty

A record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.

Almost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that’s how people here have voted. Nigel Adams’s decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time.

If Labour were to win, it would set a record. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.

But while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote.

The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now.

Turnout could be key too. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections.

With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. Selby provides the perfect opportunity.

The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament. By-elections aren’t ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority.

That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby’s boundaries for 2005, Blair’s last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour’s reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election.

The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather. At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – the so-called Baby of the House.

Somerton and Frome

In the West Country the Conservatives face a different challenger and a feeling of deja vu. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton and now they’re back in Somerton and Frome.

Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree. For 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.

David Warburton was the winner then and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes but this seat has often been competitive.

The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. But they have been trending away from the Tories.

The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. Even the Greens managed two.

And you can’t say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn’t know how to defeat a Conservative. At those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ’s resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale.

Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.

We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.

How to judge the result?

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to emerge from these by-elections unscathed.

On recent form, a loss in Somerton is expected and it will be further evidence the Conservatives could be fighting the next general election on two fronts.

Losing Uxbridge would be a blow to the Tories but no worse than other defeats in this parliament. Should Labour miss out, Sir Keir Starmer will have questions of his own to answer.

But attention will be elsewhere if Conservative rural Selby turns a record-breaking red. Labour could claim to be winning votes directly from the Tories even in their established heartlands.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

By-elections special: Watch live coverage throughout the night on Sky News – with a special programme from midnight on Friday featuring analysis and reaction as the three results come in

Dr Hannah Bunting is a Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at the University of Exeter.

Will Jennings is a Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, as well as Associate Dean (Research and Enterprise), in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Southampton.

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EthereumMax investors secure partial win in class-action lawsuit

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EthereumMax investors secure partial win in class-action lawsuit

EthereumMax investors secure partial win in class-action lawsuit

Four state-level lawsuits against three celebrities and individuals tied to the EMAX token may proceed after a California judge’s ruling.

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Donations to the embattled software developer increased after Wednesday’s partial verdict and the possibility of a retrial.

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JD Vance warns against UK going down ‘dark path’ of losing free speech during meeting with David Lammy

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JD Vance warns against UK going down 'dark path' of losing free speech during meeting with David Lammy

JD Vance has said he does not want the UK to go down a “very dark path” of losing free speech during a meeting with the foreign secretary at his country estate.

The US vice president has previously raised concerns that free speech is being eroded in the UK.

However, during a two-day visit to David Lammy’s grace and favour 115-room mansion, Chevening House in Kent, Mr Vance kept his criticism a bit more low key.

Asked about free speech in the UK during a televised meeting of the two men, Mr Vance said he has “raised concerns” about free speech in his own country and accused the West of “censoring rather than engaging” with different opinions.

He said: “I think the entire collective West, the transatlantic relationship, our NATO allies, certainly the United States under the Biden administration, got a little too comfortable with censoring rather than engaging with a diverse array of opinions. So that’s been my view.

“Obviously, I’ve raised some criticism, concerns about our friends on this side of the Atlantic.

“But the thing that I’d say to the people of England or anybody else, to David, is many of the things that I worry most about were happening in the United States from 2020 to 2024.

“I just don’t want other countries to follow us down what I think was a very dark path under the Biden administration.”

Mr Lammy, who has struck up the unlikely relationship over the past few months, did not comment on Mr Vance’s indirect criticism.

The two politicians went fishing on the Chevening estate. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The two politicians went fishing on the Chevening estate. Pic: Reuters

Mr Vance revealed he caught a few fish but Mr Lammy was not so successful. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Mr Vance revealed he caught a few fish but Mr Lammy was not so successful. Pic: Reuters

In February, when Sir Keir Starmer was carrying out a similar televised meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, Mr Vance said “infringements on free speech” now do not just affect the British, but also American tech companies – “and by extension American citizens”.

Sir Keir quickly interjected, saying: “We’ve had free speech for a very long time, it will last a long time, and we are very proud of that.”

Mr Vance and his family are staying with Mr Lammy at Chevening for two days before heading to the Cotswolds for a summer holiday.

The vice president was effusive in his praise for the grand estate that comes with Mr Lammy’s job, saying “being here lifts up the human spirit” as he thanked the “people of England” for having such a “beautiful place for foreigners like me to come and talk about the issues of the day”.

He added that he “loves the UK”.

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The two politicians went fishing ahead of their meeting, with Mr Vance revealing he caught a few, while all three of his children caught a fish but Mr Lammy did not.

He also said his children had fallen asleep on the floor of the large house, and his three-year-old daughter kept asking if she would see Mr Lammy’s daughter.

Mr Lammy posted a picture of him and Mr Vance laughing as they fished, saying it was a “real pleasure” to welcome the Vance family and the vice president “gave me fishing tips, Kentucky style”.

JD Vance confirmed he will holiday in Scotland next week in a trip that could see up to 1,000 police officers deployed as part of security efforts.

He confirmed his Scottish trip during talks with Mr Lammy on Friday.

Sky News understands the Vance family are likely to visit Ayrshire, the same area where Mr Trump recently stayed where he secured a trade deal with the European Union.

Police sources have suggested approximately 1,000 officers will be working across the visit to ensure the vice president and his loved ones are safe, Sky News’ Scotland correspondent Conner Gillies reported.

Police Scotland declined to comment on the specifics.

It is understood the Vance family will not be staying at Trump Turnberry, the luxury Ayrshire resort owned by the US president himself.

A Police Scotland spokesperson said: “Planning is under way for a potential visit to Scotland by the vice president of the United States.

“Details of any visit would be for the White House to comment on, however it is important that we prepare in advance for what would be a significant policing operation.”

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