By-election battlegrounds: Everything you need to know about this week’s votes in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton

Published

2 years ago

July 21, 2023

admin

On 20 July, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.

The Conservative Party’s implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election.

Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England.

The results will give an insight into how voters view the government’s effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it’s time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. But, as ever, by-elections develop their own character and local priorities can intervene.

So, what’s at play in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton?

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Established in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then. Boris Johnson won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.

A suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The area hasn’t experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour’s favour.

The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. That said, look a little closer and it’s an inconsistent picture.

Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing.

These differences may be one reason why Uxbridge has been ‘sticky’ at election time. In 2019 Boris Johnson was defending the smallest majority of any prime minister since 1924, just over 5,000 votes. Despite Labour’s best efforts he increased that to over 7,000. It means Labour need an eight-point swing, just half that suggested by the national polls, to win the seat for the first time.

But, as ever at by-elections, it might not be that simple.

The most recent elections in the constituency were for Hillingdon Council in 2022 and the results showed little enthusiasm for Labour, despite a record Conservative defeat across the capital on the same day.

Labour won just one of the seven wards that sit entirely within the constituency – Yiewsley. To succeed on 20 July, they need to maximise their vote there and persuade the students of the Colham and Cowley ward to turn out.

But there’s a local factor dominating the contest that could render the national politics largely irrelevant.

The Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a tax on cars which don’t meet certain emissions standards, is being extended by London’s Labour mayor to cover the area in August. Unlike inner London, this is a constituency where around four in five households have a car and one in three have two or more. The issue has prompted two of the extensive list of 17 candidates to change their names to include the phrases “Anti-ULEZ” and “No-ULEZ”.

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties. It gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox. The Conservatives will hope voters read to the end as their candidate is listed last thanks to his place in the alphabet.

With a declaration not expected until after 3am, those watching Sky News will have plenty of time to consider the turnout. Invariably lower at by-elections than general elections, there’s no way of knowing why people do and don’t vote or who did and didn’t. However, we can estimate a reasonable figure.

Based on contests so far this parliament, we expect turnout to be around 27 points lower than in 2019 in all three constituencies. For Uxbridge that means something in the region of 40%.

Selby and Ainsty

A record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.

Almost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that’s how people here have voted. Nigel Adams’s decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time.

If Labour were to win, it would set a record. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.

But while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote.

The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now.

Turnout could be key too. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections.

With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. Selby provides the perfect opportunity.

The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament. By-elections aren’t ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority.

That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby’s boundaries for 2005, Blair’s last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour’s reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election.

The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather. At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – the so-called Baby of the House.

Somerton and Frome

In the West Country the Conservatives face a different challenger and a feeling of deja vu. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton and now they’re back in Somerton and Frome.

Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree. For 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.

David Warburton was the winner then and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes but this seat has often been competitive.

The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. But they have been trending away from the Tories.

The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. Even the Greens managed two.

And you can’t say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn’t know how to defeat a Conservative. At those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ’s resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale.

Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.

We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.

How to judge the result?

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to emerge from these by-elections unscathed.

On recent form, a loss in Somerton is expected and it will be further evidence the Conservatives could be fighting the next general election on two fronts.

Losing Uxbridge would be a blow to the Tories but no worse than other defeats in this parliament. Should Labour miss out, Sir Keir Starmer will have questions of his own to answer.

But attention will be elsewhere if Conservative rural Selby turns a record-breaking red. Labour could claim to be winning votes directly from the Tories even in their established heartlands.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

By-elections special: Watch live coverage throughout the night on Sky News – with a special programme from midnight on Friday featuring analysis and reaction as the three results come in

Dr Hannah Bunting is a Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at the University of Exeter.

Will Jennings is a Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, as well as Associate Dean (Research and Enterprise), in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Southampton.

Politics

Nigel Farage sang antisemitic songs to Jewish classmates, former Dulwich pupil claims

Published

11 hours ago

December 6, 2025

admin

Nigel Farage sang antisemitic songs to Jewish classmates, former Dulwich pupil claims

Nigel Farage sang antisemitic songs to Jewish schoolmates – and had a “big issue with anyone called Patel”, a former schoolfriend has claimed.

Jean-Pierre Lihou, 61, was initially friends with the Reform UK leader when he arrived at Dulwich College in the 1970s, at the time when Mr Farage is accused of saying antisemitic and other racist remarks by more than a dozen pupils.

But Mr Lihou, who is half-German and said he went for a couple of sleepovers at Mr Farage’s parent’s house, told Sky News’ Amanda Akass that it “soon become obvious he was not quite the same person I thought he was”.

Warning: This article contains references to antisemitic slurs which readers may find offensive

Another former pupil, Stefan Benarroch, who was in the year below Mr Farage and is Jewish, said that Mr Farage was “not a kid” when he made alleged antisemitic remarks and his behaviour was “unacceptable in any era”.

Mr Farage has said he “never directly racially abused anybody” at Dulwich and said there is a “strong political element” to the allegations coming out 49 years later. Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has called the ex-classmates “liars”.

A Reform UK spokesman accused Sky News of “scraping the barrel” and were “desperate to stop us winning the next election”.

‘People were hurt by it‘

Mr Lihou told Sky News Mr Farage used to direct antisemitic songs at his Jewish friend Peter Ettedgui, who is one of the main former classmates to have spoken out against the Reform leader.

“He used to sing: ‘Gas them all, gas them out, gas them all, into the chambers they crawl’ – and the rest of those horrible words,” he said.

“You think, when somebody is obviously distressed by that, why do you keep doing it? The humour wears off… when you see this, and because I’m German I’m particularly sensitive to anyone making that kind of analogy.”

Mr Lihou also said Mr Farage used to “pass comment on anyone that wasn’t white, particularly Indians”.

He said: “He had a great big issue with anyone called Patel because I think the school had at one point more Patels than Smiths. That seemed to irk him.

“Anybody who wasn’t white, he was likely to have a comment pretty much throughout my school life, especially Jewish people. I think that was the worst thing because you could obviously see that people were hurt by it.”

‘He was truly ghastly’

Mr Benarroch, who was also friends with Mr Ettedgui, told Sky News: “His behaviour as a teenager was unacceptable by any standards and in any era. He was truly ghastly at Dulwich College.”

He said he would never have come across Mr Farage “had I not been a Jew”.

“He and his minions – and one of his minions, in particular, was my tormentor at Dulwich – they would spot us coming out of Jewish prayers on a Friday,” he added.

“So his behaviour at 16, 17, 18 – and you are a man at 18, you’re technically an adult – was truly appalling. So we’re not talking about a kid here.”

The property developer said the racism allegations are “not just about Nigel Farage as a teenager, this is also about Nigel Farage as an adult”.

“His behaviour as a teenager was unacceptable by any standards and in any era. He was truly ghastly at Dulwich College,” he added.

‘These things don’t leave you’

Mr Benarroch, who is no longer a practising Jew, added: “I was terrified of his bullies, he had these guys hanging around with him who were instructed to have a go at us as these young, nice Jewish boys.

“I don’t recall ever having direct contact with Nigel Farage, but certainly I was very much a witness to his tormenting of others, especially Peter Ettudgui.

“He [Mr Farage] was so extreme, these things don’t leave you, they don’t leave your body, as such.”

On Thursday, Mr Farage launched into a tirade at the BBC after one of its reporters asked about the claims, with the politician reading out a letter he said was from someone he went to school with.

He quoted the unnamed Jewish pupil as saying there was “plenty of macho, tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter” and said sometimes it “was offensive, but never with malice”.

The problem for Farage is the story is only getting bigger

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

Allegations about Nigel Farage’s schooldays have hit the headlines since the early days of the Brexit campaign in 2013.

He has always dismissed such claims as ‘politically motivated’ and insisted recently he has ‘never directly racially abused anybody’.

But now with the prospect of Prime Minister Farage looking ever more likely – former classmates have decided now is the moment to speak up about their concerns, almost fifty years later.

The allegations are deeply shocking. Jean-Pierre Lihou told me Farage used to sing a sickening song about the Nazi gas chambers, which began ‘gas them all, gas them out, gas them all, into the chambers they crawl’.

Lihou claims Farage said non-white pupils should be sent home and had a particular issue with the fact that at one point the school had more pupils with the surname ‘Patel’ than ‘Smith’.

Stephan Benarroch meanwhile told my colleague Ali Fortescue he witnessed Farage ‘tormenting others’ and was himself ‘terrified’ by Farage’s ‘gang of bullies’ who he claims ‘were instructed to have a go at us as these young, nice Jewish boys’ on their way back from Friday prayers.

The Guardian – whose investigation last month prompted a renewed focus on the issue – reports that 28 former teachers and pupils have come forward to report witnessing antisemitic or racist behaviour from him.

A group of Holocaust survivors are now calling on Farage to either admit whether he said the words he’s accused of saying, and apologise, or accuse those who said he did of lying.

His political opponents – battered for so long in the polls by Reform UK – are keen to pile on the pressure too. Both Labour and Liberal Democrats have urged him to ‘come clean’ and apologise.

The Tories have also argued that if it’s true, Farage should say sorry, though Kemi Badenoch has certainly been more nuanced in her response than other political rivals, making the point that what most people may say as teenagers is very different from what they would say as adults.

The problem for Farage is that far from going away – the story is only getting bigger.

He’s clearly hugely frustrated by this – as evidenced by the angry tirade he launched against the BBC this week when their reporter asked about the allegations. He argued it’s ‘double standards’ to criticise what he was alleged to have said 49 years ago, at a time when broadcasters were still showing blackface in The Black and White Minstrel Show. He also read out a letter he said had been sent to him by a Jewish contemporary pupil, who described ‘plenty of macho, tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter’ – which, while sometimes ‘offensive’, was ‘never with malice’.

Reform have hit back against our story in bullish fashion, accusing Sky News of scraping the barrel in a desperate attempt to stop Reform UK winning the next election.

Of course the question of who will win the next election isn’t down to journalists – but voters.

And the jeopardy for Reform is whether these allegations will deter enough potential voters – particularly wavering Tories – to disrupt what has thus far been an unstoppable wave of support.

‘It was not schoolboy banter’

Mr Benarroch rejected Mr Farage’s claim it was just “schoolboy banter” and said he has continued to show the same views, just in a less obvious way.

“You tell that [that it was banter] to the guys, to Peter who had ‘Hitler should have gassed you’ said to him,” he said.

“Peter Ettedgui was tormented by Nigel Farage.

“The point I’m making is, he’s a grown man now. He’s a highly intelligent politician with nuance when it suits him, and so clearly he’s not going around saying ‘Hitler should have gassed you all’, obviously.”

The former Dulwich student said Mr Farage had “kept the most disgraceful company imaginable” in the US during the 2010s on radio and TV shows.

He specifically named Rick Wiles, a far-right American conspiracy theorist whose YouTube channel was banned in 2020 after calling Donald Trump’s impeachment a “Jew coup”.

Mr Benarroch, who said he is not part of any political party, said “there is no political motivation” behind his allegations, but accused Reform and Mr Farage of making “a political statement” by calling them liars.

On Thursday, Mr Farage said he had received multiple letters from former pupils in support of him.

He said a letter from a Jewish schoolmate, said: “While there was plenty of macho tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter, it was humour, and yes, sometimes it was offensive… but never with malice.

“I never heard him [Farage] racially abuse anyone.”

A Reform UK spokesman “accused Sky News of scraping the barrel”.

He said: “This ridiculous interview has nothing to do with Nigel Farage himself but apparently someone who knew him at school almost 50 years ago.

“Sky News are desperate to stop us winning the next election.”

Politics

Bitcoin treads water at $90K as whales eat the Ethereum dip: Finance Redefined

Published

21 hours ago

December 5, 2025

admin

Bitcoin treads water at K as whales eat the Ethereum dip: Finance Redefined

Cryptocurrency markets saw another week of consolidation following last week’s long-awaited market recovery.

While Bitcoin (BTC) remained above the key $90,000 psychological level, investor sentiment continued to be dominated by “fear,” with a marginal improvement from 20 to 25 within the week, according to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed index.

In the wider crypto space, the Ether (ETH) treasury trade appears to be unwinding, as the monthly acquisitions by Ethereum digital asset treasuries (DATs) fell 81% in the past three months from August’s peak.

Still, the biggest corporate Ether holder, BitMine Immersion Technologies, continued to amass ETH, while other treasury firms carried on with their fundraising efforts for future acquisitions.

*Fear & Greed index, all-time chart. Source: CoinMarketCap*

Investors are also awaiting the key interest rate decision during the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on Wednesday to provide more cues about monetary policy leading into 2026.

Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 62% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

*Interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CMEgroup.com*

Ethereum treasury trade unwinds 80% as handful of whales dominate buys

The Ethereum treasury trade appears to be unwinding as monthly acquisitions continue to decline since the August high, though the largest players continue to scoop up billions of the Ether supply.

Investments from Ethereum DATs fell 81% in the past three months, from 1.97 million Ether in August to 370,000 ETH in November, according to Bitwise, an asset management firm.

“ETH DAT bear continues,” wrote Max Shennon, senior research associate at Bitwise, in a Tuesday X post.

Despite the slowdown, some companies with stronger financial backgrounds continued to accumulate the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency or raise funds for future purchases.

BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate Ether holder, accumulated about 679,000 Ether worth $2.13 billion over the past month, completing 62% of its target to accumulate 5% of the ETH supply, according to data from the Strategicethreserve.

BitMine holds an additional $882 million worth of cash according to the data aggregator, which may signal more incoming Ether accumulation.

*Top corporate Ether holders. Source:* *Strategicethreserve.xyz*

Continue reading

Citadel causes uproar by urging SEC to regulate DeFi tokenized stocks

Market maker Citadel Securities has recommended that the US Securities and Exchange Commission tighten regulations on decentralized finance regarding tokenized stocks, causing backlash from crypto users.

Citadel Securities told the SEC in a letter on Tuesday that DeFi developers, smart-contract coders, and self-custody wallet providers should not be given “broad exemptive relief” for offering trading of tokenized US equities.

It argued that DeFi trading platforms likely fall under the definitions of an “exchange” or “broker-dealer” and should be regulated under securities laws if offering tokenized stocks.

“Granting broad exemptive relief to facilitate the trading of a tokenized share via DeFi protocols would create two separate regulatory regimes for the trading of the same security,” it argued. “This outcome would be the exact opposite of the “technology-neutral” approach taken by the Exchange Act.”

Citadel’s letter, made in response to the SEC looking for feedback on how it should approach regulating tokenized stocks, has drawn considerable backlash from the crypto community and organizations advocating for innovation in the blockchain space.

Continue reading

Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%, calls it high-risk “VC coin”

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a warning over Monad, saying the recently launched layer-1 blockchain could plunge as much as 99% and end up as another failed experiment driven by venture capital hype rather than real adoption.

Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX chief described the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail traders at risk. FDV stands for Fully Diluted Value, which is the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation.

According to Hayes, projects with a large gap between FDV and circulating supply often experience early price spikes, followed by deep selloffs once insider tokens unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” Hayes said, adding that while every new coin gets an initial pump, that does not mean it will develop a lasting use case.

Hayes said most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a handful likely to retain long-term relevance. He identified Bitcoin, Ether, Solana (SOL) and Zcash (ZEC) as the small group of protocols he expects to survive the next cycle.

Last year, Monad raised $225 million in funding from venture capital firm Paradigm. The layer-1 blockchain went live on Monday, accompanied by an airdrop of its MON token.

*Monad’s MON token up 40% since launch. Source:* *CoinMarketCap*

Continue reading

$25 billion crypto lending market now led by “transparent” players: Galaxy

The crypto lending market has become more transparent than ever, led by the likes of Tether, Nexo and Galaxy, and has just hit an aggregate loan book of nearly $25 billion outstanding in the third quarter.

The size of the crypto lending market has increased by more than 200% since the beginning of 2024, according to Galaxy Research. Its latest quarter puts it at its highest since its peak in Q1 2022.

However, it has yet to return to its peak of $37 billion at that time.

The main difference is the number of new centralized finance lending platforms and much more transparency, said Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

Thorn said on Sunday that he was proud of the chart and the transparency of its contributors, adding that it was a “big change from prior market cycles.”

*The crypto lending landscape has seen many new platforms in the past three years. Source: Alex Thorn*

Continue reading

Portal to Bitcoin raises $25 million and launches atomic OTC desk

Bitcoin-native interoperability protocol Portal to Bitcoin has raised $25 million in funding amid the launch of what it describes as an atomic over-the-counter (OTC) trading desk.

According to a Thursday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the company raised $25 million in a round led by digital asset lender JTSA Global. The fundraise follows previous investments by Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, Arrington Capital and others.

Alongside the fresh funding, the company rolled out its Atomic OTC desk, promising “instant, trustless cross-chain settlement of large block trades.” The newly deployed service is reminiscent of crosschain atomic swaps offered by THORChain, Chainflip, and more Bitcoin-focused systems such as Liquality and Boltz.

What sets Portal to Bitcoin apart is its focus on the Bitcoin-anchored crosschain OTC market for institutions and whales, along with its tech stack. “Portal provides the infrastructure to make Bitcoin the settlement layer for global asset markets, without bridges, custodians, or wrapped assets,” said Chandra Duggirala, founder and CEO of Portal.

Decentralization — *Portal to Bitcoin team members, from left to right: co-founder and chief technology officer Manoj Duggirala, founder and CEO Chandra Duggirala, and co-founder George Burke. Source: Portal to Bitcoin*

Continue reading

DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.

The Canton (CC) token fell 18%, marking the week’s biggest decline in the top 100, followed by the Starknet (STRK) token, down 16% on the weekly chart.

*Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama*

Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.