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The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.

Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.

The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.

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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.

So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.

:: Is Labour set to win the next election?

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Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.

But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.

But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.

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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’

:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?

Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.

Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.

So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.

But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.

Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.

Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.

Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.

:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?

Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.

The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.

:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?

Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.

The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.

This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.

Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.

Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.

Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.

Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.

This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.

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‘Nothing short of spectacular’

:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?

Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.

This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.

That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.

But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.

So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.

They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.

:: How likely is a snap general election?

Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.

That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.

What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.

But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.

So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”

Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.

Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club
Image:
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner

:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?

Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.

On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.

Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.

Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.

So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.

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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?

Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.

Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.

Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.

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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge

:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?

Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.

We may hear the result later in the summer.

Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.

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‘Rapper’ who murdered schoolboy recalled to prison after ‘boasting about his violent crime’, Probation Service says

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'Rapper' who murdered schoolboy recalled to prison after 'boasting about his violent crime', Probation Service says

The man who served 14 years in jail for the murder of schoolboy Jimmy Mizen has been recalled to prison for breaching his licence conditions.

It follows reporting in The Sun newspaper that Jake Fahri, 35, was a drill rapper releasing music under the name TEN, who conceals his identity with a balaclava, and was played on BBC 1Xtra.

A Probation Service spokesperson said: “Our thoughts are with Jimmy Mizen’s family who deserve better than to see their son’s murderer shamelessly boasting about his violent crime.”

Jimmy’s father Barry told Sky News: “We’re not gloating or anything, in a way it’s quite sad.”

His son bled to death after Fahri threw an oven dish at him in a south London bakery on 10 May 2008.

The dish shattered on his chin and severed an artery in the schoolboy’s neck.

Fahri was 19 when he was given a life sentence in 2009 with a minimum term of 14 years and was released on licence in June 2023.

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His music was played on BBC 1Xtra less than 18 months later, the Sun reported, adding that DJ Theo Johnson named him an “up-and-coming star”.

Undated Family handout photo of 16-year-old Jimmy Mizen. Comedian Harry Hill will today present the keys of two minibuses in memory of the murdered schoolboy. Just days before the anniversary of the teenager's death on May 10, Hill will hadn over the keys of the "Jimmybuses" which will help Scouts travel around the UK.
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Jimmy Mizen. Pic: PA

Jimmy’s father earlier said he and his wife Margaret were “stunned into silence” when they were told about Fahri’s music, which often features violent themes.

In one song, which appears to reference Jimmy’s death, he raps about “sharpening” a blade.

“Judge took a look at me, before the trial even started he already knows he’s gonna throw the book at me,” the lyrics say.

Another track includes the lines: “See a man’s soul fly from his eyes and his breath gone… I wanted more, it made it less wrong. Seeing blood spilled same floor he was left on.”

The BBC has said the artist’s tracks do not feature on any BBC playlists, and that a track which appeared to reference Jimmy’s death had never been played on its channels.

A spokesman for the broadcaster added there were “no further plans to play his music”, adding: “We were not aware of his background and we in no way condone his actions.”

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A Probation Service spokesperson said: “All offenders released on licence are subject to strict conditions. As this case shows, we will recall them to prison if they break the rules.”

Jimmy’s parents founded the Mizen Foundation after their son’s death. The charity helps young people in London who are escaping violence.

Mr Mizen said: “It appears that if he’s been recalled to prison, he must’ve breached his licence conditions

“What happens next, we’ve absolutely no idea.”

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Madeleine McCann suspect won’t face charges for foreseeable future, prosecutor tells Sky News

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Madeleine McCann suspect won't face charges for foreseeable future, prosecutor tells Sky News

The man suspected of abducting Madeleine McCann won’t face any charges in the foreseeable future, a prosecutor has told Sky News.

German drifter Christian B, who cannot be fully identified under his country’s privacy law, is expected to be freed from an unrelated jail sentence this year while police in three countries continue to search for evidence against him.

Prosecutor Hans Christian Wolters said: “There is currently no prospect of an indictment in the Maddie case.

“As things stand, the accused Christian B’s imprisonment will end in early September.”

Madeleine, aged three, was asleep with her younger twin siblings in the family’s Portuguese rented holiday apartment before mother Kate discovered her missing at around 10pm on 3 May, 2007.

Her parents were dining nearby on the complex with friends and taking turns to check on all their sleeping children every half an hour.

A man, who is a suspect in the disappearance of British toddler Madeleine McCann in Portugal, stands next to his lawyer Friedrich Fuelscher at his trial on unrelated sexual assault charges in Braunschweig, Germany, October 2, 2024. Christian B., is charged with three counts of aggravated rape and two counts of sexual abuse of children in Portugal between June 2007 and December 2000. Moritz Frankenberg/Pool via REUTERS
Image:
Christian B at his trial on unrelated sexual assault charges in Germany last year. Pic: Reuters

Madeleine’s disappearance has become the world’s most mysterious missing child case.

Philipp Marquort, one of Christian B’s defence lawyers, welcomed the prosecutor’s pessimism about bringing charges.

He said: “This confirms the suspicions that we have repeatedly expressed, namely that there is no reliable evidence against our client.

“We regret that we have not yet been granted access to the investigation files. We have not yet been able to effectively counter the public prejudice arising from statements made by the prosecutor’s office.”

Christian B, 47, is in jail and coming to the end of his sentence for the rape of an elderly American woman in Praia da Luz, the Portuguese resort where Madeleine disappeared.

In October, he was acquitted on a series of rape and indecent assault charges after a non-jury trial in Germany, in which several references were made to his status as the main suspect in the Madeleine case.

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File photo dated 30/04/17 of Kate and Gerry McCann, whose daughter Madeleine disappeared from a holiday flat in Portugal seventeen years ago. They have released a statement on the 17th anniversary of her disappearance, saying "the absence still aches". Earlier this week, it was confirmed that up to a further ..192,000 has been granted by the Home Office for the Scotland Yard investigation into Madeleine's disappearance. Issue date: Friday May 3, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLICE Portugal. Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire....
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Kate and Gerry McCann. Pic: PA

The prosecutor said he was awaiting the court’s written judgment before launching an appeal against the acquittal. He believes the trial judges were biased against the prosecution.

If successful, he could apply for a new arrest warrant for Christian B to keep him in custody until a retrial with new judges.

He said: “We hope that the Federal Court of Justice will decide before the end of the accused’s imprisonment. If the Federal Court follows our legal opinion, we could apply for a new arrest warrant for the accused’s offences, so that the accused would then remain in custody beyond September 2025.

Mr Marquort said the defence team would oppose the prosecution’s appeal against the acquittal.

Prosecutor Mr Wolters has said in the past that he believes Madeleine is dead and that Christian B was responsible for her death. The suspect denies any involvement.

The case against Christian B is purely circumstantial; he’s alleged to have confessed to a friend that he abducted Madeleine, he has convictions for sex crimes against children, he was living in the area at the time, his mobile phone was close by when the young girl vanished and he re-registered one of his vehicles the next day.

The prosecutor won’t say what evidence he has to convince him Madeleine is dead, but he admitted he is still trying to find forensic evidence to link Christian B to the girl.

Christian B is acquitted of sex attacks not related to the Madeleine McCann case
Image:
Christian B coming to the end of his sentence for the rape of an elderly woman

Jim Gamble, former head of the UK Child Exploitation and Online Protection centre, said he had expected the prosecutor to charge Christian B soon.

“He’s implied the whole way through that he has something more than the public are aware of,” he said.

“He’s made fairly definitive statements about whether Madeleine is alive or dead so you would expect their strategy to have been to charge him sooner rather than later.

“From what he’s said today I wonder if we’re witnessing the re-positioning of something to manage the disappointment that’ll come.”

Mr Wolters, who is based in Braunschweig, Lower Saxony, is investigating the case with the help of Portuguese police and detectives from Scotland Yard.

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Man arrested after death of woman and two-year-old girl found with serious injuries in Ashford, Surrey

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Man arrested after death of woman and two-year-old girl found with serious injuries in Ashford, Surrey

A man has been arrested after the death of a woman in her 20s and a two-year-old girl was found with serious injuries in Surrey.

The man, in his 30s, has been detained on suspicion of murder and attempted murder, Surrey Police said.

Officers went to a property in Woodthorpe Road, Ashford, at 1.15pm on Thursday following a report of concern for safety.

The woman and child were found at the address with serious injuries and despite treatment from paramedics, the woman died at the scene.

The child was taken to hospital.

Officers said the victim and the suspect were known to each other.

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A forensics officer at the scene at Imtech House on Woodthorpe Road in Ashford, Surrey, after a woman in her 20s died and a two-year-old girl was found with serious injuries. A man in his 30s has been arrested on suspicion of murder and attempted murder. Picture date: Friday January 17, 2025.
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Pic: PA

An investigation, led by the Surrey and Sussex Police Major Crime Team, is under way and inquiries remain ongoing, police said.

Senior Investigating Officer DCI Kimball Edey said specialist officers “are working around the clock to gather as much information as possible,” and that the force’s “thoughts are with the family and friends of the victims at this unbelievably difficult time”.

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