By-election results: Your questions answered after Tories lose two seats but cling onto a third
The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.
Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.
The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.
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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.
So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.
:: Is Labour set to win the next election?
Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.
But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.
But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.
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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’
:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?
Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.
Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.
So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.
But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.
Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.
Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.
Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.
:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?
Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.
The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.
:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?
Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.
The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.
The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.
This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.
Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.
Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.
Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.
Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.
This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.
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‘Nothing short of spectacular’
:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?
Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.
This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.
That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.
But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.
So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.
They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.
:: How likely is a snap general election?
Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.
That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.
What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.
But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.
So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”
Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner
:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?
Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.
On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.
Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.
Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.
So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.
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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?
Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.
Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.
Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.
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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge
:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?
Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.
We may hear the result later in the summer.
Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.
Victims of child sexual exploitation are “not explicitly within the scope” of the Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) strategy being drafted by the government, Sky News can reveal.
Child Sexual Abuse and Exploitation (CSEA) is a form of child abuse, described by police as a “critical threat” to women and girls.
It includes crimes such as grooming, and can involve both physical contact, such as rape, or non-physical – like forcing children to look at sexual images.
Sky News has been shown an internal Home Office document presented to various stakeholders in the sector.
Screenshot detailing strategy
It’s titled “Scope of the Strategy… Our draft definition of VAWG”, and says that while it recognises “links” between VAWG and child sexual exploitation, it is not “explicitly within the scope of the strategy”.
“VAWG is Violence Against Women and Girls. If you take child sexual abuse out of it, where are the girls?” Poppy Eyre told Sky News.
Poppy was sexually abused and raped by her grandfather when she was four.
It wasn’t until she was 11, after a PHSE lesson on abuse at school, that she understood the enormity of what had happened.
“I remember very vividly when the police came round and told me… this is what we’re charging him with,” said Poppy.
“We’re charging him with sexual abuse and rape. And I remember being like, I had no idea that’s what it was, but I know that’s really bad.”
Poppy Eyre was sexually abused and raped by her grandfather when she was four
Poppy’s grandfather was convicted and died in prison.
She questions how authorities would police crime if child sexual abuse is excluded from an umbrella strategy to tackle violence against women and girls.
“Are they holding child sexual abuse at the same level of importance as they are with violence against women? You’d hope so, but potentially not, because it doesn’t need to be in the figures”, she said.
‘Are they holding child sexual abuse at the same level of importance?’ asks Poppy
The government has pledged to halve VAWG within a decade, by 2035.
“If the government are measuring themselves against halving violence against women and girls – if they’re not looking at the scale of child sexual abuse and child sexual exploitation within that – that will mean we are failing many young victims of abuse,” said Andrea Simon, director of campaign group End Violence Against Women.
The Centre of Expertise on Child Sexual Abuse, which is funded by the Home Office, estimates 500,000 children in England and Wales are sexually abused every year.
‘Danger’ of having separate plan
Rape Crisis told Sky News that “for any strategy to be effective” it “must include all forms of gender-based violence against all women and girls”, suggesting there is a “danger” in having a separate plan for child sexual abuse.
Its chief executive, Ciara Bergman, said it could create a “problematic and potentially very unhelpful” distinction between victims of domestic abuse, expected to be covered by the strategy, and child sexual abuse.
“Some perpetrators of domestic abuse also sexually abuse their children,” she told Sky News.
The government insists the strategy will include action to tackle child sexual abuse, but says it also plans to create a distinctive programme to address its specific crimes.
Poppy’s mother Miranda Eyre says she’s ‘speechless’ and ‘angry’ over the government’s approach
“Sexual abuse is violence against a child,” said Poppy’s mother, Miranda Eyre, who now works as a counsellor specialising in trauma.
“It is violence against girls… and you can’t separate it out,” she said. “I’m speechless to be honest… it does make me quite angry.”
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A Home Office spokesperson told Sky News it is “working tirelessly to tackle the scourges of violence against women and girls and child sexual abuse”.
“These issues are complex and run deep within the fabric of society,” they added.
“The government wholly recognises that they overlap. But it also recognises that concerted action is needed to tackle child sexual abuse which is why we have set out a range of actions… and why we are launching a national inquiry into grooming gangs.”
A British veteran has spoken about how he witnessed Japan’s wartime surrender up close as a 20-year-old sailor.
Reg Draper was off Japan’s coast on the HMS Duke of York when the captain announced the war was ending.
Recalling that moment – 80 years ago today – he said cheers went up from the battleship’s crew.
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Why is it important to mark VJ Day?
Mr Draper saw the Japanese sign the agreement on USS Missouri when he went on board to help his friend, who was the ship’s photographer.
“All the ships mustered in Tokyo Bay with the USS Missouri, which was the American ship, and it was on the Missouri where they signed the peace treaty,” the 100-year-old recalled.
“Then we all came back down to Australia and we went and celebrated – we went down to Tasmania and everybody had four days leave in Hobart.
“Everybody wanted to take us to their home and there were a couple of dances in the dance hall.”
Mr Draper still has a photo showing the peace deal being signed. Pic: Royal British Legion/PA
Mr Draper got a letter recognising his presence at the surrender. Pic: Royal British Legion/PA
Mr Draper, who grew up in Leeds, was a stores assistant on the Duke of York after volunteering on his 18th birthday.
His duties included rationing out the rum so all the sailors could get their 11am hit. He said senior crew got theirs neat while everyone else had theirs watered down.
He also recalled being clattered by Prince Philip after the Queen’s future husband, who was on a destroyer escorting his ship, came aboard.
A view looking out over the HMS Duke of York. Pic: AP
Mr Draper met Prince Philip again in the 70s – but the hockey wasn’t mentioned. Pic: Royal British Legion/PA
“We used to have deck hockey on the quarter deck and it was murder playing deck hockey,” said Mr Draper.
“He [Philip] knocked me over once and then the next time he came round he hit me, there’s still a mark there, he gave me a clout with his hockey stick.
“He came to see me just to see how I was. They just put a stitch in and it was alright.”
The pair met again in 1972 when Mr Draper was training sea cadets for the Duke of Edinburgh awards.
He said Philip noticed his medals and recalled escorting the ship – but didn’t mention the hockey game.
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Hiroshima survivor describes moment of blast
Mr Draper’s time on the Duke of York included Arctic convoys to deliver supplies to Russia and sailing to Sydney, Australia, in 1945 before joining the East Indies Fleet.
“We started going up to the islands, kicking the Japanese out of the islands as we went,” he recalled.
Japan surrendered after the US dropped two nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, on 6 and 9 August.
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Mr Draper now lives in Elton in Cheshire. Pic: PA
Mr Draper turned 21 on the trip back to Europe and said 2,000 people were on board as they had picked up prisoners of war.
He went on to become an insurance salesman and said he’s planning to watch today’s 80th anniversary commemorations from his home in Elton, Cheshire.
The King released an audio message in which he said the sacrifices of VJ Day veterans should “never be forgotten”.
He described how the heroic actions of those sent to fight in the Far East, as well as the brutal treatment of civilians, “reminds us that war’s true cost extends beyond battlefields, touching every aspect of life”.
The King will issue a warning that the sacrifices of the VJ Day veterans should “never be forgotten” as they “gave us more than freedom; they left us the example of how it can and must be protected”.
In an audio message, due to be released on Friday morning to mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War in the Far East, King Charles will describe how the heroic actions of those sent to fight there and the brutal treatment of civilians “reminds us that war’s true cost extends beyond battlefields, touching every aspect of life”.
In what could be interpreted as him alluding to current world events and conflicts, he will emphasise the importance of international collaboration, saying that victory in 1945 demonstrated that “in times of war and in times of peace, the greatest weapons of all are not the arms you bear but the arms you link”.
Pic: PA
The six-minute audio message to the Nation, Realms and Commonwealth to mark VJ Day, echoes the audio broadcast made by his grandfather, King George VI, which the King will reference.
He recorded it in the Morning Room at Clarence House earlier this month.
Victory over Japan (VJ Day) was declared on 15 August 1945, following Imperial Japan’s surrender to Allied Forces.
With Victory in Europe (VE Day) declared in May 1945, some have felt that historically VJ Day has been overlooked, undervaluing the sacrifices of those who continued to fight on for another three months.
In his message, the King will say that the service and sacrifice of those who fought and died in the Pacific and Far East “shall never be forgotten”.
He will also refer to the experience endured by prisoners of war and to the innocent civilians of occupied lands in the region.
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King Charles and Queen Camilla will also publicly mark the anniversary by attending a national service of remembrance at the National Memorial Arboretum in Staffordshire.
The service, run in partnership with the Royal British Legion, will be attended by Burma Star recipients, a veteran of the British Indian Army and those involved in the Battles of Kohima and Imphal.
Prisoners of war held across the region and veterans stationed in the UK or Commonwealth countries who contributed to the war effort will also attend. A two-minute national silence will be held at midday.
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