By-election results: Your questions answered after Tories lose two seats but cling onto a third
The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.
Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.
The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.
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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.
So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.
:: Is Labour set to win the next election?
Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.
But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.
But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.
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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’
:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?
Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.
Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.
So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.
But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.
Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.
Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.
Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.
:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?
Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.
The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.
:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?
Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.
The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.
The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.
This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.
Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.
Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.
Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.
Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.
This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.
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‘Nothing short of spectacular’
:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?
Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.
This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.
That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.
But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.
So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.
They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.
:: How likely is a snap general election?
Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.
That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.
What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.
But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.
So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”
Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner
:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?
Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.
On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.
Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.
Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.
So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.
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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?
Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.
Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.
Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.
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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge
:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?
Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.
We may hear the result later in the summer.
Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.
UK
Manhunt for Epping hotel asylum seeker, jailed for sexually assaulting girl, after accidental release
A manhunt has been launched for an accidentally released asylum seeker who was jailed for 12 months earlier this year after he sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping.
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu had been staying at The Bell Hotel in the Essex town, with the incident fuelling weeks of protests at the site.
The Ethiopian national was found guilty of two counts of sexual assault, attempted sexual assault, inciting a girl to engage in sexual activity and harassment without violence earlier this month.
District judge Christopher Williams said Kebatu posed a “significant risk of reoffending” when he sentenced him to 12 months in prison in September.
Sky News understands Hadush Kebatu was being released from HMP Chelmsford as he was due to be immediately deported.
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police / PA
He was released on the expectation that he would be picked up by immigration enforcement, but it is currently unclear what happened next. It is understood that the Home Office was ready to take Kebatu to an immigration removal centre.
Sky sources say the search for Kebatu is within Essex, which launched a manhunt after he was accidentally freed on Friday morning.
Kebatu’s lawyer, Molly Dyas, told Chelmsford Magistrates’ Court during his trial that it was his “firm wish” to be deported.
Under the UK Borders Act 2007, a deportation order must be made where a foreign national has been convicted of an offence and received a custodial sentence of at least 12 months.
Kebatu was accidentally released from HMP Chelmsford. Pic: iStock
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is said to be furious and has ordered an investigation and is supporting police efforts, according to a Government source.
Mr Lammy said in a post on X that he is “appalled at the release in error”, adding: “Kebatu must be deported for his crimes, not on our streets.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “The Epping hotel migrant sex attacker has been accidentally freed rather than deported. He is now walking the streets of Essex. Britain is broken.”
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said Kebatu was released as a result of “the entire system collapsing under Labour”.
Chelmsford MP Marie Goldman said in a statement following the accidental release: “The police must do everything they can to ensure that this man is returned to custody immediately so that he is deported at once.
“Once the manhunt is over, there must be a full, rapid public inquiry into how this happened. This is utterly unacceptable and has potentially put my constituents in danger. I expect answers from the Prison Service.”
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, left, in a court sketch. Pic: Elizabeth Cook/PA
The Prison Service said in a statement that it was “urgently working with police to return an offender to custody following a release in error at HMP Chelmsford”.
“Public protection is our top priority and we have launched an investigation into this incident,” a spokesperson added.
It is understood that releases in error are incredibly rare and are taken extremely seriously by the Prison Service.
But policing and crime commentator Danny Shadow says that releases in error are actually not uncommon.
“Last year, there were 87 prisoners who were released in error. So that’s around six or so every single month. Seventy were released from error from prisons and another 17 from the courts,” the former Labour home affairs advisor told Sky News.
An officer has been removed from duties to discharge prisoners while the investigation is ongoing.
Kebatu was staying at the Bell Hotel in Epping. Pic: PA
During his trial, the court heard that Kebatu had tried to kiss the teenager, put his hand on her thigh and brushed her hair after she offered him pizza.
The asylum seeker also told the girl and her friend he wanted to have a baby with them and invited them back to the hotel.
The incident happened on 7 July, about a week after he arrived in the UK on a boat.
The girl later told police she “froze” and got “really creeped out”, telling him: “No, I’m 14.”
The Bell Hotel has been the site of protests over the summer. Pic: AP
Kebatu was also found guilty of sexually assaulting a woman – putting his hand on her thigh and trying to kiss her – when she tried to intervene after seeing him talking to the girl again the following day.
The incidents sparked anti-migrant protests and counter-protests outside the former Bell Hotel in Epping – as well as at hotels housing asylum seekers across the country.
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An asylum seeker has been found guilty of murdering a hotel worker at a train station in the West Midlands.
Deng Chol Majek was caught on CCTV following Rhiannon Skye Whyte from the Park Inn hotel, in Walsall, where he lived and she worked, to the nearby Bescot Stadium station.
She was stabbed in the head with a screwdriver 19 times, and 23 times in total, on 20 October last year.
Deng Chol Majek. Pic: PA
Mr Majek, who is from Sudan and claims to be 19 years old, had told Wolverhampton Crown Court he was at the hotel for asylum seekers at the time the 27-year-old was attacked.
A two-week trial heard that Mr Majek had previously been reported to security at the hotel after “spookily” staring at three female staff members for prolonged periods.
Ms Skye died in hospital three days after the attack, having been found injured in a shelter on the platform by the driver and guard of a train which pulled in about five minutes later.
Rhiannon Skye Whyte. Pic: Family handout/PA
Mr Majek, who is about ten inches taller than Ms Whyte, walked to the Caldmore Green area of Walsall after the attack to buy beer, and was recorded on CCTV apparently wiping blood from his trousers.
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He returned to the hotel at 12.13am, changed his bloodstained flip-flops for trainers, and was seen dancing with other residents in the car park, within sight of emergency vehicles called to the station.
Asked by defence KC Gurdeep Garcha if he was at the train station when Ms Whyte was stabbed, Mr Majek replied: “No.”
He also denied being “responsible for that fatal assault” on the platform.
CCTV from the reception area of the hotel alleged to show Deng Chol Majek staring at Rhiannon Whyte, left. Pic: PA
Prosecutor Michelle Heeley KC said of Mr Majek’s behaviour after the murder: “He is celebrating, his mood has changed from that prolonged scowl before the murder to dancing and joy after the murder. It is utterly callous.”
Mr Majek said he had spent time in Libya, Italy and Germany before arriving in the UK to claim asylum in July last year.
He will be sentenced at a later date.
‘She was always happy’
Rhiannon’s sister, Alex Whyte, said her sibling “always wanted to make everyone else around her happy”.
She said: “Rhiannon had such a quirky personality. You would hear her before you’d see her.
“No matter what her day had been, she always wanted to make everyone else around her happy. She always prioritised family. That was the most important thing to Rhiannon. Obviously, she has a brother and three sisters. And my mum, who was her best friend.”
She added: “Rhiannon is the second youngest. But our baby sister would always say ‘I’m your big little sister’, because Rhiannon was very soft.
“So, no matter what, we always wanted to protect her. That was our priority most of our life, because Rhiannon never saw danger – Rhiannon never understood how scary the world really could be.
“But no matter what Rhiannon was just happy, always.”
Plaid Cymru have won the by-election in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly for the first time.
The Welsh nationalist party secured 15,960 votes – and candidate Lindsay Whittle cried as the result was announced.
Mr Whittle is 72 years old and had stood as a Plaid candidate 13 times since 1983. He will now hold the seat until the Welsh Assembly’s national elections next year.
This by-election was widely regarded as a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and the result marks a considerable blow for Nigel Farage.
His candidate Llyr Powell received 12,113 votes – denying a victory that would have strengthened claims that Reform can convert a large lead in opinion polls into election wins.
Nonetheless, the party’s performance is a marked improvement on 2021, when it received just 495 votes.
More than anything, the result is a humiliating and historic defeat for Labour, who had held Caerphilly at every Senedd election since it was created in 1999 – as well as the Westminster seat for over a century.
Its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe secured 3,713 votes and finished in third place, with Welsh Labour describing it as a “by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.
Turnout overall stood at 50.43% – considerably higher than during the last ballot back in 2021.
Giving his acceptance speech after the result was confirmed, Mr Whittle began by paying tribute to Hefin David – who was Welsh Labour’s Member of the Senedd for Caerphilly until his death in August.
“He will be a hard act to follow,” Mr Whittle said. “I will never fill his shoes – but I promise you, I will walk the same path that he did.”
The Plaid politician described how he had been “absolutely heartened” by how many young people were involved in the by-election – and said the result sends a clear message.
He said: “Listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster – this is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales. The big parties need to sit up and take notice.
“Wales, we are at the dawn of new leadership, we are at the dawn of a new beginning – and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency. I thank you with all my heart.”
Mr Whittle quipped Plaid’s victory “was better than scoring the winning try for Wales in the Rugby World Cup”.
And looking ahead to the next year’s elections, he added: “[This] result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.
“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”
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How tactical voting helped Plaid Cymru
Speaking to Sky’s chief political correspondent Jon Craig just before the declaration, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said: “There’s clearly a real significance to the result – we are seeing the disillusionment with Labour writ large. I’ve heard it on hundreds of doorsteps, we’ve seen it in opinion polls.”
He conceded there was tactical voting in this by-election – with Labour and Conservative supporters alike backing Lindsay Whittle to keep out Reform.
However, Mr ap Iorwerth added: “I’ve spoken to literally hundreds and hundreds of people who told me – time and time again – ‘I’ve been a Labour supporter all my life, and we’re backing you this time.’
“Not begrudgingly, but because they see that’s the direction we’re going in – not just in this by-election, but as a nation. I’m calling on people to get behind that positive change – not just today, but ahead of next May.”
First Minister Eluned Morgan congratulated Mr Whittle on his return to the Senedd and said: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.
“We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”
The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were among the parties who lost their deposits.
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