By-election results: Your questions answered after Tories lose two seats but cling onto a third
The Conservatives have suffered two by-election defeats in what had been seen as safe seats.
Labour won in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats triumphed in Somerton and Frome.
The opposition parties both overturned Tory majorities of about 20,000 – as polling experts said the results meant “deep electoral trouble” for the Conservatives.
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Rishi Sunak said the next general election was not a “done deal” as his party was able to narrowly hold on to Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat. Despite predictions of a Labour victory in west London, Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the capital’s outer borough angered people on the doorstep.
So is Labour on course to win power and how much are Mr Sunak’s predecessors Liz Truss and Mr Johnson to blame for the PM’s woes? Chief political correspondent Jon Craig and political correspondents Tamara Cohen and Rob Powell have been answering readers’ questions on the by-election results.
:: Is Labour set to win the next election?
Tamara Cohen: Well, the short answer is it’s looking encouraging for Labour, but it’s difficult to predict general election results from by-elections, especially when the general election could be more than a year away.
But the clear swing is away from the Tories in three very different parts of the country. Labour needs a 12% swing nationally for a majority; and even if what we saw in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is replicated nationally they could be the largest party in a hung parliament.
But there is a long way to go and the extent of Labour’s recovery in Scotland – still untested – will be crucial.
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PM: ‘By-elections are always difficult’
:: Have Truss and Johnson doomed Sunak?
Rob Powell: Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have inflicted a lot of damage to the Tory brand and that is undoubtedly harming the current government.
Polling shows voters blaming the Tories for spiralling mortgage costs and not looking fondly on the chaos of the last few years.
So far, Rishi Sunak has spent a lot of time steadying the ship and putting out fires.
But he’ll need to start offering more of a vision for what he wants to do for the country if he wants to avoid a thumping defeat next year. No 10 is suggesting that phase of his premiership will start after the summer.
Labour is also facing a similar problem, though.
Sir Keir Starmer spent the first half of his time in office trying to restore Labour as a credible party of government in the eyes of many voters. While that’s worked to an extent, pollsters say many complain that they still don’t know what he believes in or stands for.
Some Labour MPs and trade unions want him to lay out a more solid plan as well and not just stand back and hope the Tories lose the next election.
:: Will there be an imminent reshuffle, with the PM changing his top team?
Tamara Cohen: From what I’m hearing, no.
The thing about reshuffles is you never really know when they are going to happen, but while both the Conservatives and Labour will want to refresh their top teams before the election, doing so after a night that both are trying to spin as a victory looks like panic.
:: Will constituency changes affect the next general election?
Jon Craig: Oh yes! Most certainly. And ironically, two of the biggest casualties are seats contested in this week’s by-elections: Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.
The aim of boundary changes is to reflect changes in population as, traditionally, inner city constituencies lose voters and the suburbs and towns with new housing gain them.
The idea is that each constituency should have between roughly 70,000 and 77,000 voters. That means some rural seats are vast, with claims that they have more sheep than voters.
This time there’s been a big shake-up because the boundaries haven’t changed since 2010 and only 65 of the 650 Westminster seats will be unchanged.
Somerton and Frome is being carved in two new constituencies, Glastonbury and Somerton, and Frome and East Somerset.
Selby and Ainsty is being split four ways, though most of its electorate will stay in a new Selby constituency. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the other hand, is affected by only minor changes.
Reflecting population moves, the East Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West get more seats. The North West, North East and West Midlands will have fewer, and Yorkshire keeps the same.
Normally, governments make sure their party benefits from boundary changes.
This time is no different. It’s estimated that the Tories will benefit by five or 10 seats as a result of the changes.
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‘Nothing short of spectacular’
:: Does the Liberal Democrats’ victory in Somerton and Frome show they are set for a big comeback?
Rob Powell: Before being decimated after the coalition years with the Tories, the South West was a heartland for the Lib Dems.
This win – combined with similar victories in local elections in the area – suggests the bad taste left by the coalition has faded and voters here are prepared to give them a go again.
That doesn’t mean all four of the Lib Dem MPs who won their seats in by-elections in the last two years or so will retain them at the general election.
But the results do suggest the Lib Dems can expect to bank some wins in the broader region next year.
So expect the Lib Dems to frame themselves as the main challenger to kick the Tories out in target constituencies.
They’ll pick out local policies to campaign on, as well as continuing to focus on national issues such as the NHS and cost of living.
:: How likely is a snap general election?
Jon Craig: The next election has to be called within five years of the last.
That means it could, in theory, be as late as January 2025, since the last one was in December 2019.
What normally triggers an early general election is when a government starts losing votes in the Commons, culminating in losing a vote of no confidence in the government, as happened to James Callaghan’s government in 1979.
But in spite of all Rishi Sunak’s current difficulties, his government isn’t losing any Commons votes, partly because every time he faces a big Tory rebellion he caves in and ducks a clash with his backbenchers.
So with inflation now beginning to fall, Mr Sunak obviously feels perfectly entitled to say, as he did last month: “We’ve got to hold our nerve, stick to the plan and we will get through this.”
Opposition leaders always demand a general election immediately and Sir Keir Starmer is no exception. But it ain’t going to happen while Mr Sunak has a hefty majority in parliament.
Newly-elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner
:: Is there going to be a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats?
Rob Powell: If you’re talking about tactical voting, then both leaders insist they aren’t stepping aside to allow other parties through.
On the chances of the two parties forming a coalition after the next election, I’m not convinced anything solid has been reached behind the scenes, but be in no doubt it will be on the minds of both leaders, because the chances of Labour ending up as the largest party but without a majority are high.
Lib Dem success is already bringing questions about whether they would support a Labour government into power.
Sir Ed Davey isn’t keen to talk about that, but notably didn’t rule it out today when I asked him about it several times.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is also very woolly on the subject as while he’s explicitly said no deal with the SNP, the possibility of teaming up with the Lib Dems is more vague.
So both sides are leaving the options open. Expect questions to get more pointed as polling day nears.
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:: Will parties struggle to implement green policies after the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge?
Tamara Cohen: That’s a really good question, and one Labour are grappling with.
Angela Rayner said low emission zones remained the right idea, but her party needed to reflect on how to help people “do the right thing” without penalising those who can’t afford a new car.
Whether it’s Tory battles over wind farms, traffic schemes or the move to electric cars, these contests are a warning to both parties that they’ll need to take voters with them on environmental policies.
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Labour leader blames the controversial ULEZ charge for Labour’s by-election defeat in Uxbridge
:: Does Labour have the power to overrule London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme?
Tamara Cohen: The ULEZ scheme is already in place in central London and its expansion to the outer boroughs, which is due to happen at the end of August, is subject to a High Court challenge by five London councils including Hillingdon – where the Uxbridge by-election took place.
We may hear the result later in the summer.
Labour’s candidate in Uxbridge called for a delay in the implementation and a more extensive scrappage scheme, not ditching it altogether.
A 92-year-old man has been found guilty of raping and murdering a woman born 133 years ago – in what’s thought to be the UK’s longest cold case to reach trial.
Ryland Headley was convicted at Bristol Crown Court of killing 75-year-old mother of two, Louisa Dunne, at her home back in June 1967.
Latest DNA technology – as well as matching palm prints taken at the scene more than 57 years ago – led a jury to find Headley guilty on both charges.
Ryland Headley, now aged 92, has been found guilty of rape and murder. Pic Avon and Somerset Police
The front of Louisa Dunne’s home. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Detective Inspector Dave Marchant from Avon and Somerset Police said forces across the country are investigating whether Headley could be linked to other unsolved crimes.
“This investigation was a blend of new and old forensic techniques – DNA being the latest and greatest…but we were able to utilise that original investigative material,” he said.
On the morning of 28 June 1967, neighbours noticed that Louisa Dunne, born in 1892, wasn’t standing on her doorstep as usual.
They found her lying dead inside her home in the Easton area of Bristol – bruised, blood coming from one ear, vomit in her mouth and her underwear around her ankles.
The police investigation at the time found traces of semen on intimate swabs and on the skirt she was wearing, but it was around 20 years before DNA testing.
Louisa Dunne’s skirt. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Map showing original house-to-house coverage. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
A palm print was also found on one of the rear windows inside the house.
“The original investigation was, by all accounts, massive,” DI Marchant told Sky News.
“Over 19,000 palm print eliminations were taken from men and boys in the Bristol area and beyond. Over 8,000 house-to-house records were completed and several thousand statements were taken,” he added.
But Headley – in his 30s at the time – lived just outside the ring of houses where palm prints were taken.
A post-mortem examination found she had “extensive abrasions” on her face and that the most likely explanation was that a hand had been pressed against her mouth.
The back of Louisa Dunne’s house. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Palmprint images. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Around 20 crates of evidence were stored in Avon and Somerset Police HQ for nearly six decades alongside other cold cases.
The case was reviewed in 2024, with new DNA testing on the sperm found on the skirt Ms Dunne had been wearing.
Investigating officers were told the results showed a DNA match on the national database that was “a billion times” more likely to belong to Headley than anyone else.
“I had to read that email several times to fully digest the content of it and believe what I was reading. Then it was, okay, game on, let’s get this investigation going,” said DI Marchant.
Headley was arrested at his home in Ipswich in November 2024 – he did not give evidence during the trial.
Headley during his arrest. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
Louisa Dunne in 1933. Pic: Avon and Somerset Constabulary
The jury heard that forensic experts had matched Headley’s palm print, taken on arrest, to that of the one found on Ms Dunne’s window at the time.
The judge allowed the prosecution to raise the fact that Headley had already spent time in jail for committing two other rapes, around a decade after Ms Dunne’s murder.
Both those cases involved attacks against elderly women in similar circumstances.
Prosecutor Anna Vigars KC told the jury these offences demonstrate to all of us that Headley “has a tendency” to act in exactly the same way that we say that he did back in 1967.
“In other words, to break into people’s homes at night and, in some cases, to target an elderly woman living alone, to have sex with her despite her attempts to fend him off, and to threaten violence,” she said.
Ryland Headley is on trial for the 1967 rape and murder of 75-year-old Louisa Dunne. Pic: PA
Speaking before the verdict, Louisa Dunne’s granddaughter recalled the moment police told her of progress in the cold case, nearly six decades on: “She said, ‘this is about your grandmother’, and I said, ‘have they caught him?’ It came out, I never thought I’d say anything like that. Have you caught him? and she said, ‘we have a suspect’.”
She described the impact of the attack on her grandmother and that a conviction would bring relief:
“I accepted it. I accepted that some murders just never get solved. And some people just have to live with that emptiness and that sadness.
“I think it’s appalling, absolutely appalling. The poor woman – it must have been absolutely terrifying. And the reality of a rape, I don’t like thinking about, I don’t think anybody does,” she added.
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The Crown Prosecution Service told Sky News that it was not aware of a cold case with a longer period between the offence and trial.
DI Marchant told Sky News it demonstrates the value of reviewing such cases: “I think this investigation shows you should never give up.
“You should never look at an investigation and say, ‘oh, it’s too old, it happened X number of years ago’ and have an arbitrary cut off point. At the time we re-instigated it in 2024… there was a chance a suspect could still be alive and as it turned out – he was.”
The BBC has said it regrets not pulling the live stream of Bob Vylan’s “unacceptable” Glastonbury set – as Ofcom said the broadcaster has “questions to answer”.
The corporation has faced mounting criticism over airing the performance on Glastonbury‘s West Holts Stage, during which the rap-punk duo’s frontman Bobby Vylan led chants of: “Free, free Palestine” and: “Death, death to the IDF (Israel Defence Forces)”.
Sir Keir Starmer condemned the remarks as “appalling hate speech”, while festival organiser Emily Eavis said they “crossed a line” – and media watchdog Ofcom has now also released a statement raising concerns.
This morning, a spokesperson for the prime minister did not directly answer when asked if he still had confidence in BBC director-general Tim Davie.
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What is the Glastonbury controversy?
Footage from Bob Vylan’s set on Saturday showed some of the crowd joining in, as the group performed in front of a screen that said Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to “genocide”.
Afterwards, the BBC said there had been a warning on screen about potential “strong and discriminatory language”, but described the comments as “deeply offensive”.
On Monday, a spokesperson released an updated statement, saying the comments were antisemitic and the performance should have been taken off air.
“The BBC respects freedom of expression but stands firmly against incitement to violence,” the statement said. “The antisemitic sentiments expressed by Bob Vylan were utterly unacceptable and have no place on our airwaves. We welcome Glastonbury’s condemnation of the performance.”
Pic: PA
A judgement to issue a warning on screen while streaming online was in line with editorial guidelines, the spokesperson added, and the performance has not been made available to view on demand.
“The team were dealing with a live situation but with hindsight we should have pulled the stream during the performance. We regret this did not happen.
“In light of this weekend, we will look at our guidance around live events so we can be sure teams are clear on when it is acceptable to keep output on air.”
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An Ofcom spokesperson said: “We are very concerned about the live stream of this performance, and the BBC clearly has questions to answer.
“We have been speaking to the BBC over the weekend and we are obtaining further information as a matter of urgency, including what procedures were in place to ensure compliance with its own editorial guidelines.”
In a statement shared on Instagram on Sunday, Bobby Vylan said: “Teaching our children to speak up for the change they want and need is the only way that we make this world a better place.
“As we grow older and our fire starts to possibly dim under the suffocation of adult life and all its responsibilities, it is incredibly important that we encourage and inspire future generations to pick up the torch that was passed to us.”
The latest developments follows severe condemnation from the prime minister, who said there was “no excuse for this kind of appalling hate speech”.
Mo Chara of Kneecap at Glastonbury. Pic: Reuters
Sir Keir also referenced a previous statement that Belfast rap group Kneecap, who were on stage after Bob Vylan, should have been removed from the line-up after one member was charged with a terrorism offence.
“I said that Kneecap should not be given a platform and that goes for any other performers making threats or inciting violence,” he said.
Ms Eavis, whose father Michael co-founded the festival, said in a statement that Bob Vylan had “very much crossed a line”.
She added: “Their chants very much crossed a line and we are urgently reminding everyone involved in the production of the festival that there is no place at Glastonbury for antisemitism, hate speech or incitement to violence.”
The Israeli embassy posted on X in the hours after the set, saying it was “deeply disturbed by the inflammatory and hateful rhetoric”.
It said the slogan used “advocates for the dismantling of the State of Israel”.
In a separate post on X on Sunday, Israel’s foreign ministry published graphic footage following the attack by Hamas on the Nova festival in Israel on 7 October 2023, and the Campaign Against Antisemitism (CAA) said it would be formally complaining to the BBC over its “outrageous decision” to broadcast the performance.
Speaking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on behalf of the government, Health Secretary Wes Streeting described the chant as “appalling”, especially at a music festival – “when there were Israelis at a similar music festival who were kidnapped, murdered, raped, and in some cases still held captive”.
He added that while “there’s no justification for inciting violence against Israelis… the way in which Israel’s conducting this war has made it extremely difficult for Israel’s allies around the world to stand by and justify”.
Lucy McMullin, who was in the crowd for Bob Vylan, told Sky News: “When there’s children and civilians being murdered and starved, then I think it’s important that people are speaking out on these issues.
“However, inciting more death and violence is not the way to do it.”
Police have said they are reviewing footage of both the Bob Vylan and Kneecap sets to assess whether any criminal offences were committed.
Speaking to Sky News earlier today, women and equalities minister Baroness Jacqui Smith said the comments “clearly” over-stepped the mark.
“I’m surprised that the BBC carried on broadcasting them live when it was obvious what was happening.”
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