By-elections: Rishi Sunak faces triple blow as polls close in three seats – including Boris Johnson’s old constituency
Polling stations have closed in by-elections that could deliver a triple blow to Rishi Sunak – with the Liberal Democrats already claiming victory in one seat.
The results from Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, and Somerton and Frome in Somerset, are expected in the early hours of Friday morning.
The three seats were left empty by outgoing Conservative MPs – former prime minister Boris Johnson, Nigel Adams, and David Warburton, who has been an independent since last year.
Follow by-election coverage live: Tories expect to lose all three by-elections, Sky News told
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Lib Dems declare victory
According to political editor Beth Rigby, Mr Sunak‘s party are bracing to lose all three constituencies.
Mr Johnson had a majority of 7,210 when Uxbridge and South Ruislip was last contested at the general election in 2019, with Labour coming in second place.
Selby and Ainsty saw Mr Adams elected in the same year with a majority of over 20,000, again with Labour as the runner-up.
And Mr Warburton’s seat of Somerton and Frome saw him get a 19,213 majority in 2019, though it was the Liberal Democrats who came the closest to him.
A Conservative spokesperson said they knew the votes were always going to be “very challenging”, especially “given the circumstances in which they were brought about”.
It is common for sitting governments to perform poorly in by-elections, but it is also common for parties to talk down their chances, so they can frame a positive result as an unexpected success.
The Liberal Democrats claimed victory in Somerton and Frome before midnight – although of third of ballots were still waiting to be counted – overturning a majority of close to 20,000.
Christine Jardine, MP for Edinburgh West, told Sky News: “We’ve won this quite decisively, the Conservative vote is just collapsing, and I think that’s indicative of how people here feel about how the government has let them down over the past five years.”
She added that the Lib Dems are experiencing a “new period of growth” and they have “romped home”.
Did Labour fail to manage expectations in Selby and Ainsty?
Of the three by-elections, the result in Selby and Ainsty – a Labour vs Conservative contest – is the most interesting.
I’m hearing both sides hope they’ve won it – it’s going to be close.
A Tory loss would mean Labour overturning the biggest ever Tory majority at a by-election – a record last set in 1990 in Mid Staffordshire.
I’m stunned Labour didn’t do better expectation management – they allowed the (Tory) idea to take hold that a win was priced in.
They didn’t push back at this very hard.
Now they’re having to admit they don’t know.
A Labour spokesman said they “don’t know if we’ve made it over the line” in the other two seats – but claimed that “Keir Starmer’s leadership of a changed Labour Party, back in the service of working people, has seen voters put their trust in us”.
While the cost of living was the main factor in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, local factors – specifically the ULEZ expansion – understood to have dampened Labour support in the seat, with party insiders believing the vote could still go either way.
Labour MP Steve Reed told Sky News at the Uxbridge and South Ruislip count that he was “not going to predict” which was the vote would go – and claimed the election was “always going to be close”.
Ballot boxes began to be opened and votes counted from 10pm.
Results are not expected until the small hours of the morning at the earliest – especially if the results are close.
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The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the three month period.
The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.
Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.
And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.
Pic: Reuters
Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Am I satisfied with the numbers published today? Of course not. I want growth to be stronger, to come sooner, and also to be felt by families right across the country.”
“It’s why in my Mansion House speech last night, I announced some of the biggest reforms of our pension system in a generation to unlock long term patient capital, up to £80bn to help invest in small businesses and scale up businesses and in the infrastructure needs,” Ms Reeves later told Sky News in an interview.
“We’re four months into this government. There’s a lot more to do to turn around the growth performance of the last decade or so.”
New economy data tests chancellor’s growth plan
The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector.
The UK’s GDP for the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.
The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.
It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.
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The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.
The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.
Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.
The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.
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