It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.
On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.
When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.
Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.
But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.
The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.
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The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.
The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.
Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.
Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.
But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.
Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.
Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.
This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.
The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.
Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.
Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.
And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?
There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.
Humiliation for Tories in Somerset
The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.
The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.
The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.
This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.
Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.
That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.
Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.
Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.
Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.
Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.
It says human rights in the UK “worsened” in 2024, with “credible reports of serious restrictions on freedom of expression”, as well as “crimes, violence, or threats of violence motivated by antisemitism” since the 7 October Hamas attack against Israel.
On free speech, while “generally provided” for, the report cites “specific areas of concern” around limits on “political speech deemed ‘hateful’ or ‘offensive'”.
Sir Keir Starmer has previously defended the UK’s record on free speech after concerns were raised by Mr Vance.
In response to the report, a UK government spokesperson said: “Free speech is vital for democracy around the world including here in the UK, and we are proud to uphold freedoms whilst keeping our citizens safe.”
Image: Keir Starmer and JD Vance have clashed in the past over free speech in the UK. Pics: PA
The US report highlights Britain’s public space protection orders, which allow councils to restrict certain activities in some public places to prevent antisocial behaviour.
It also references “safe access zones” around abortion clinics, which the Home Office says are designed to protect women from harassment or distress.
They have been criticised by Mr Vance before, notably back in February during a headline-grabbing speech at the Munich Security Conference.
Ministers have said the Online Safety Act is about protecting children, and repeatedly gone so far as to suggest people who are opposed to it are on the side of predators.
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Why do people want to repeal the Online Safety Act?
The report comes months after Sir Keir bit back at Mr Vance during a summit at the White House, cutting in when Donald Trump’s VP claimed there are “infringements on free speech” in the UK.
“We’ve had free speech for a very long time, it will last a long time, and we are very proud of that,” the PM said.
But Mr Vance again raised concerns during a meeting with Foreign Secretary David Lammy at his country estate in Kent last week, saying he didn’t want the UK to go down a “very dark path” of losing free speech.
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The Trump administration itself has been accused of trying to curtail free speech and stifle criticism, most notably by targeting universities – Harvard chief among them.
The police’s use of facial recognition technology is to be significantly expanded in an attempt to catch more offenders, ministers have announced.
Under the plans, 10 live facial recognition (LFR) vans will be used by seven forces across England to help identify “sex offenders or people wanted for the most serious crimes”, according to Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.
The tech, which has been trialled in London and south Wales, will be subject to strict rules, the Home Office said, but human rights groups have warned it is “dangerous and discriminatory”.
Amnesty International UK said the plans should be “immediately scrapped”, with facial recognition proven to be “discriminatory against communities of colour”.
“It has been known to lead to misidentification and the risk of wrongful arrest,” said Alba Kapoor, the charity’s racial justice lead, “and it’s also known to be less accurate in scanning the faces of people of colour.”
The Home Office said the LFR vans will only be deployed when there is “specific intelligence”, and will be operated by trained officers who will check every match made by the cameras.
The vehicles will also only be used against bespoke watch lists, compiled for each use under guidelines set by the College of Policing.
The vans will be operated by police forces in Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Bedfordshire, Surrey and Sussex (jointly), and Thames Valley and Hampshire (jointly).
Image: The 10 vans set to be deployed to police forces across England.
Pic: Home Office
‘The most serious offenders’
Ms Cooper has said ministers are focused on making sure “there are proper safeguards in place”.
As part of the plans, the home secretary has announced she will be launching a consultation on how and when the cameras should be used, and with what safeguards, which the government will use to draw up a new legal framework for the use of the cameras.
Ms Cooper said the tech had been used in London and South Wales “in a targeted way”, and helped catch “the most serious offenders, including people wanted for violent assaults or for sex offences”.
According to the Metropolitan Police, the tech has led to 580 arrests for offences such as rape, domestic crime and knife crime in the space of 12 months.
The government has pointed to independent testing by the National Physical Laboratory, which it said found the tech was “accurate” and showed “no bias for ethnicity, age, or gender”.
Liberty has welcomed the government’s decision to create a statutory framework for using facial recognition, but said that should be in place before the tech is rolled out.
“There’s no reasonable excuse to be putting even more cameras on our streets before the public have had their say and legislation is brought in to protect all of us,” said a statement.
The civil liberties charity cited how more than 1.6 million people have had their faces scanned in South Wales, mostly on football match days in Cardiff city centre.
But Lindsey Chiswick, from the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), has said the expansion “is an excellent opportunity for policing”, and will help officers locate suspects “quickly and accurately”.
Police should consider disclosing the ethnicity and nationality of suspects when they are charged in high-profile and sensitive cases, new national guidance says.
Coming into force today, it says there must be a policing reason to release the information, such as where there are high levels of disinformation, if it will improve public safety, or if it is significantly in the public interest.
A Home Office spokesperson told Sky News they will support the new guidance by authorising the release of relevant accompanying immigration information if appropriate.
The change comes after two men charged over the alleged rape of a 12-year-old girl in Nuneaton were reported to be Afghan asylum seekers, sparking protests.
Warwickshire Police did not confirm the immigration status, leading to Reform UK accusing them of a “cover-up”, something the force strongly denied.
Responding to the row, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said last week she wanted police to be more transparent, and that new guidance was being worked up.
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Migration protesters face off
How high-profile cases sparked debate
When considering what information to release, police must consider contempt of court laws which aim to give defendants a fair trial, as well as media guidance from the College of Policing.
Until now, the media guidance said once a suspect has been charged, police can give out information such as their name, date of birth and address. It did not mention anything about ethnicity, nationality, or immigration status.
The Southport murders committed by Axel Rudakubanalast July led to speculation about his ethnicity and immigration status, fuelling riots in many parts of the country.
In the Nuneaton case, Reform leader Nigel Farage said retaining the “basic and sober facts” was “a cover-up that in many ways is reminiscent of what happened after the Southport killings”.
Warwickshire Police said officers “did not and will not cover up such criminality”, and followed national guidance.
Image: Reform leader Nigel Farage argues releasing the information could prevent unrest. Pic: PA
How will new guidance work?
The new guidance says it is at the discretion of the police force to decide whether to release ethnicity and nationality details, and that they must consider the ethical and legal implications.
It says it is not the job of police to verify a suspect’s immigration status, which rests with the Home Office.
The advice has been developed by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) and the College of Policing, in consultation with the Home Office and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).
Deputy chief constable Sam de Reya, the NPCC lead for communications and media, said: “We saw during last summer’s disorder, as well as in several recent high-profile cases, what the major, real-world consequences can be from what information police release into the public domain.
“We have to make sure our processes are fit for purpose in an age of social media speculation and where information can travel incredibly quickly across a wide range of channels.
“Disinformation and incorrect narratives can take hold in a vacuum. It is good police work for us to fill this vacuum with the facts about issues of wider public interest.”
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One year on from the Southport riots
‘A chilling message’
The guidance is interim, and will be considered as part of a wider review of the College of Policing’s authorised professional practice for media relations later this year.
Chief constable Sir Andy Marsh, the college’s CEO, said officers will continue to police “without fear or favour”.
But the guidance is likely to provoke backlash from anti-racism campaigners. Last week, the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants warned that revealing ethnicity and migration status would “send a chilling message: that some people are inherently more ‘suspect'”.
‘Public trust requires transparency’
A Home Office spokesperson told Sky News they welcome the new guidance, adding: “Public trust requires transparency and consistency from the authorities that serve them.”
They added: “The public, and police forces themselves, want greater clarity on when, why and how information is released and the legitimate and compelling reasons it may need to be withheld.
“The Home Office will support that effort by authorising the release of relevant accompanying immigration information in future cases, where it is appropriate to do so, and where the police have requested it. All cases will of course take account of consultation with the police and CPS.
“The government also asked the Law Commission at the end of February to speed up the elements of its review around the law of contempt in relation to what can be said publicly ahead of a trial.”