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It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.

On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.

When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.

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Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.

But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.

The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.

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The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.

The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.

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Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.

Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.

But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.

Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.

Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.

This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.

The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.

Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.

Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.

And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?

There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.

Humiliation for Tories in Somerset

The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.

The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.

The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.

This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.

Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.

That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.

Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.

Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.

Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.

Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.

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Who’s nicer – Lords or MPs?

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Who's nicer - Lords or MPs?

šŸ‘‰ Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app šŸ‘ˆ

The two baronesses of the podcast finally lift the lid on the House of Lords in this special Q&A episode. What’s it really like on the red benches in parliament? And if you’re a Lord, are you a has-been?

Also – was Tony Blair actually cool in the 90s? Or was it just a more optimistic time in politics?

Come and join us LIVE on Tuesday 20th May at Cadogan Hall in London, tickets available now: https://www.aegpresents.co.uk/event/electoral-dysfunction-live/

Remember you can also watch us on YouTube!

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Why a ‘Trump-fest’ could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

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Why a 'Trump-fest' could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

It was perhaps not quite how officials, in London at least, had envisaged the announcement of the state visit would be made.

In the Oval Office, Donald Trump revealed the news in his own way.

“I was invited by the King and the great country. They are going to do a second fest – that’s what it is. It is beautiful,” he said during an impromptu Oval Office moment.

The question was, did this “fest” – which Mr Trump suggested could happen in September – amount to the much hyped second state visit for the American president?

Or was this actually just the smaller visit that had been offered two months ago as an initial bilateral visit at which the state visit would be discussed?

Back in February, Sir Keir Starmer presented the president with a letter from King Charles and the offer of a state visit.

The letter proposed an initial meeting between the King and the president to discuss details of the state visit at either Dumfries House or Balmoral, both in Scotland, close to Mr Trump’s golf clubs.

The King wrote: “Quite apart from this presenting an opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest, it would also offer a valuable chance to plan a historic second state visit to the United Kingdomā€¦ As you will know this is unprecedented by a US president. That is why I would find it helpful for us to be able to discuss, together, a range of options for location and programme content.”

As he revealed the news of his “fest” with his “friend Charles”, Mr Trump said: “I think they are setting a date for Septemberā€¦”

Sources have since confirmed to Sky News that it will amount to the full state visit.

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Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer handed Trump the invite earlier this year. Pic: Reuters

‘Even more important’

It’s possible the initial less formal presidential trip may still happen between now and September. Mr Trump is in Europe for the NATO summit in June and is due in Scotland to open a new golf course soon too.

“It is the second time it has happened to one person. The reason is we have two separate terms, and it’s an honour to be a friend of King Charles and the family, William,” the president said.

“I don’t know how it can be bigger than the last one. The last one was incredible, but they say the next one will be even more important.”

His last state visit in 2019, at the invitation of the late Queen, drew significant protests epitomised by the giant blow-up “Baby Trump” which floated over Parliament Square.

The president was hosted by the Queen in June 2019. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The president was hosted by the Queen in June 2019. Pic: Reuters

Britain’s trump card

September is a little earlier than had been expected for the visit. It may be an advantage for it to happen sooner rather than later, given the profoundly consequential and controversial nature of the first few months of his second term.

The decision by the British government to play its “state visit trump card” up front back in February drew some criticism.

And since February, Mr Trump’s position on numerous issues has been increasingly at odds with all of America’s allies.

On Ukraine, he has seemingly aligned himself closely with Vladimir Putin. His tariffs have caused a global economic shock. And on issues like Greenland and Canada, a member of the Commonwealth, he has generated significant diplomatic shock.

A risk worth taking

Mr Trump is as divisive among the British public as he is in America. Sir Keir is already walking a political tightrope by choosing the softly softly approach with the White House.

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The UK government chose not to retaliate against Mr Trump’s tariffs, unlike some allies. Sir Keir and his cabinet have been at pains not to be seen to criticise the president in any way as they seek to influence him on Ukraine and seek an elusive economic deal on tariffs.

On that tariff deal, despite some positive language from the US side and offers on the table, there has yet to be a breakthrough. A continuing challenge is engaging with the president for decisions and agreements only he, not his cabinet, will make.

British officials acknowledge the risk the state visit poses. In this presidency, anything could happen between now and September.

But they argue British soft power and Mr Trump’s fondness for the Royal Family and pomp – or a “fest” as he calls it – amount to vital diplomatic clout.

For a special relationship under strain, a special state visit is the tonic.

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Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child ‘influencers’, senior MP suggests

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Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child 'influencers', senior MP suggests

Laws may need to be strengthened to crack down on the exploitation of child “influencers”, a senior Labour MP has warned.

Chi Onwurah, chair of the science, technology and innovation committee, said parts of the Online Safety Act – passed in October 2023 – may already be “obsolete or inadequate”.

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Experts have raised concerns that there is a lack of provision in industry laws for children who earn money through brand collaborations on social media when compared to child actors and models.

This has led to some children advertising in their underwear on social media, one expert has claimed.

Those working in more traditional entertainment fields are safeguarded by performance laws, which strictly govern the hours a minor can work, the money they earn and who they are accompanied by.

The Child Influencer Project, which has curated the world’s first industry guidelines for the group, has warned of a “large gap in UK law” which is not sufficiently filled by new online safety legislation.

Official portrait of Chi Onwurah.
Pic: UK Parlimeant
Image:
Official portrait of Chi Onwurah.
Pic: UK Parlimeant

The group’s research found that child influencers could be exposed to as many as 20 different risks of harm, including to dignity, identity, family life, education, and their health and safety.

Ms Onwurah told Sky News there needs to be a “much clearer understanding of the nature of child influencers ‘work’ and the legal and regulatory framework around it”.

She said: “The safety and welfare of children are at the heart of the Online Safety Act and rightly so.

“However, as we know in a number of areas the act may already be obsolete or inadequate due to the lack of foresight and rigour of the last government.”

Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for science, innovation and technology, agreed that regulations “need to keep pace with the times”, with child influencers on social media “protected in the same way” as child actors or models.

“Liberal Democrats would welcome steps to strengthen the Online Safety Act on this front,” she added.

‘Something has to be done’

MPs warned in 2022 that the government should “urgently address the gap in UK child labour and performance regulation that is leaving child influencers without protection”.

They asked for new laws on working hours and conditions, a mandate for the protection of the child’s earnings, a right to erasure and to bring child labour arrangements under the oversight of local authorities.

However, Dr Francis Rees, the principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, told Sky News that even after the implementation of the Online Safety Act, “there’s still a lot wanting”.

“Something has to be done to make brands more aware of their own duty of care towards kids in this arena,” she said.

Dr Rees added that achieving performances from children on social media “can involve extremely coercive and disruptive practices”.

“We simply have to do more to protect these children who have very little say or understanding of what is really happening. Most are left without a voice and without a choice.”

What is a child influencer – and how are they at risk?

A child influencer is a person under the age of 18 who makes money through social media, whether that is using their image alone or with their family.

Dr Francis Rees, principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, explains this is an ā€œescalationā€ from the sharing of digital images and performances of the child into ā€œsome form of commercial gain or brand endorsementā€.

She said issues can emerge when young people work with brands – who do not have to comply with standard practise for a child influencer as they would with an in-house production.

Dr Rees explains how, when working with a child model or actor, an advertising agency would have to make sure a performance license is in place, and make sure ā€œeverything is in accordance with many layers of legislation and regulation around child protectionā€.

But, outside of a professional environment, these safeguards are not in place.

She notes that 30-second videos ā€œcan take as long as three days to practice and rehearseā€.

And, Dr Rees suggests, this can have a strain on the parent-child relationship.

ā€œIt’s just not as simple as taking a child on to a set and having them perform to a camera which professionals are involved in.ā€

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The researcher pointed to one particular instance, in which children were advertising an underwear brand on social media.

She said: “The kids in the company’s own marketing material or their own media campaigns are either pulling up the band of the underwear underneath their clothing, or they’re holding the underwear up while they’re fully clothed.

“But whenever you look at any of the sponsored content produced by families with children – mum, dad, and child are in their underwear.”

Dr Rees said it is “night and day” in terms of how companies are behaving when they have responsibility for the material, versus “the lack of responsibility once they hand it over to parents with kids”.

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