Connect with us

Published

on

It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.

On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.

When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.

Read more: New Labour MP compared to Inbetweeners character by Johnny Mercer

Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.

But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.

The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.

More on Conservatives

The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.

The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.

Read more:
Two huge Tory majorities overturned – politics latest
Labour secure record win in by-election – piling pressure on Rishi Sunak

Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.

Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.

But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.

Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.

Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.

This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.

The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.

Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.

Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.

And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?

There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.

Humiliation for Tories in Somerset

The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.

The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.

The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.

This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.

Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.

That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.

Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.

Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.

Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.

Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.

Continue Reading

Politics

Whitehall officials tried to convince Lord Gove to cover up grooming scandal, he tells Sky News

Published

on

By

Whitehall officials tried to convince Lord Gove to cover up grooming scandal, he tells Sky News

Whitehall officials tried to convince Lord Michael Gove to go to court to cover up details of a report into the grooming scandal in 2011, he has said, confirming Sky News reporting earlier this week.

Speaking to Sky’s Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, the former senior cabinet minister said it is “undoubtedly the case that more should have been done” to prevent the abuse of young girls in Britain, admitting that it weighs on him.

The allegations of an attempted cover-up were first made to Sky News by former Downing Street adviser Dominic Cummings in an interview with Sky News, and the claims were substantiated by other sources as well. Mr Cummings was working for Lord Gove, who was then education secretary.

Politics latest: Badenoch says UK should ‘support Israel’

Lord Gove explained that in 2011, he learned that the late Times journalist Andrew Norfolk, who he described as “a heroic reporter who did more than anyone to initially uncover this scandal”, was seeking to publish details of a report from Rotherham Council about the abuse and grooming of young girls.

He said: “Rotherham Council wanted to stop that happening. They wanted to go to court to prevent him publishing some details, and we in the Department for Education were asked by the council, ‘would we join in, would we be a party to that court action to stop it?’

“And I had to look at the case, advised by Dominic [Cummings] and by others, and there were some within the department, some officials who said, ‘be cautious, don’t allow this to be published, there may be risks for relatives of the victims concerned.”

More on Grooming Gangs

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How Andrew Norfolk exposed grooming gangs

Rotherham Council also argued that publication may pose “risks” to the process of “improving in the way in which it handles” grooming cases, he continued.

The judicial review wanted by officials would have asked a judge to decide about the lawfulness of The Times’ publication plans and the consequences that would flow from this information entering the public domain.

But Lord Gove said: “My view at the time, advised by Dominic and by others within the department, was that it was definitely better for it to be published.”

“So we said to Rotherham, we will join the case, but we’re joining it on the side of the Times and Andrew Norfolk because we believe in transparency.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Attempted grooming scandal cover-up claim

‘Tough questions’ for Whitehall

Lord Gove went on to say that a national inquiry could see some “tough questions” asked of the Home Office about its culture and its interactions with the police.

But those questions will also be posed to two departments he led – the Department for Local Government and the Department of Education, and he said: “I think it’s right that there should be, because the nature and scale of what the victims have endured means that there’s an obligation on all of us who’ve been in any form of elected office to be honest and unsparing in looking at what went on.”

He said he “certainly didn’t have the knowledge at my command that we now do about the widespread nature of this activity”.

‘Not nearly enough’ progress made

Sophy Ridge put to Lord Gove that despite commissioning a report on what was happening to girls in care, and not seeking to block the publication of Andrew Norfolk’s reporting, he still failed to make change.

He replied: “Yes, so it is undoubtedly the case that more should have been done.”

Read more on grooming gangs:
What we do and don’t know from the data
A timeline of the scandal

He admitted that it “absolutely” weighs on him, and that “not nearly enough” progress was made on the protection of vulnerable girls.

“With the benefit of hindsight, I do wish that I had been more vehement in trying to persuade people to take appropriate action,” he said.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Key takeaways from the Casey review

Local government ‘sought to deny scale’ of scandal

The now Spectator editor went on to say that there was “pushback, particularly but not exclusively, from those in local government” to subsequent questions about cultural background, and he said “local councillors and others sought to deny the scale of what was happening and particularly, sought to deny questioning about the identity and the background of the perpetrators”.

👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈

He continued: “I think the right thing to do is for everyone to acknowledge that sometimes there were people who were acting from noble motives, who did not want to increase ethnic and racial anxieties, who did not to fan far-right flames, and thought that it was better to step away from the really grim reality of what was going on.

“I can understand that. But ultimately, that didn’t serve anyone. It did not serve the victims.”

The Department for Education and Rotherham Council did not respond when approached for comment earlier this week on the claims first made by Dominic Cummings, revealed by Sky News.

Continue Reading

Politics

MP who introduced assisted dying bill ‘confident’ it will be voted through

Published

on

By

MP who introduced assisted dying bill 'confident' it will be voted through

The politician who introduced the assisted dying bill has said she is “confident” MPs will push it through to the next stage on Friday.

Speaking at a news conference ahead of a Commons vote, Kim Leadbeater said: “I do feel confident we can get through tomorrow successfully.”

If new amendments are voted through on Friday, the bill to give some terminally ill adults the right to end their lives will get closer to becoming law as it will go through to the next stage in the House of Lords.

Politics latest: PM should decide if MPs get vote on military action

Ms Leadbeater, who introduced the bill in October last year, said if MPs do not vote it through on Friday, “it could be another decade before this issue is brought back to parliament”.

But she said there was a “good majority” who voted for the bill at the last major vote, the second reading in November, when MPs voted it through by 330 to 275.

“There might be some small movement in the middle, some people might change their mind or will change their mind the other way,” she said.

More on Assisted Dying

“But fundamentally, I do not anticipate that that majority would be heavily eroded.”

A new YouGov poll found 72% of Britons supported the bill as it stands, including 59% of those who say they support assisted dying in principle but oppose it in practice, and 67% were opposed to the principle of euthanasia but are willing to back it in practice.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How will the Assisted Dying Bill work?

Criticism by doctors

The Labour MP was joined by bereaved and terminally ill people at Thursday’s news conference as she made her case for a change in the law.

The proposed legislation would allow terminally ill adults, with fewer than six months to live, to apply for an assisted death, subject to approval by two doctors and a panel featuring a social worker, senior legal figure and psychiatrist.

Recently, the Royal College of Psychiatrists, the Royal College of Pathologists and the Royal College of Physicians have raised concerns about the bill.

The Royal College of Psychiatrists said the bill, in its current form, did “not meet the needs of patients”.

It has also expressed concern over the shortage of qualified psychiatrists to take part in assisted dying panels.

Read more:
Assisted dying bill does not meet needs of patients, says Royal College of Psychiatrists
Why cancer patient is praying assisted dying bill passes major vote

People in favour of assisted dying demonstrate in Parliament Square. Pic: PA
Image:
People in favour of assisted dying demonstrate in Parliament Square. Pic: PA

But Ms Leadbeater said doctors and psychiatrists have their individual views on assisted dying and royal colleges have, over the years, been neutral because of that.

“My door is open, so if they have got concerns, they can come and speak to me about those concerns,” she said.

“But what I would say is they were very keen that there was psychiatric involvement in the process, and that’s why I included it. And I do think that’s important.”

It appears the country is ready for historic change

On the eve of one of the most important votes this current cohort of MPs will likely ever cast, it was a bold, daring claim to make.

Asked by a reporter at a news conference convened in a hot, crowded room deep inside the parliamentary estate if tomorrow’s assisted dying vote was likely to pass, Kim Leadbeater replied, confidently, yes, her controversial bill would be carried.

It would take a sizeable shift to swing it the other way, and opponents of the bill have been trying very hard to convince wavering MPs to do just that.

This week alone, there have been significant interventions from the Royal Colleges of Psychiatrists and Physicians – two professions that would be at the heart of delivering this end of life care and key in making the life or death decisions.

The setting might have been political, but the message was much less so.

Ms Leadbeater was flanked by supporters with the most compelling, heart-wrenching testimonies.

Each told their own powerful story: of lonely, painful deaths, carefully planned journeys to Switzerland’s Dignitas clinic kept secret from loved ones, and the life limiting deterioration in health and dreading what new misery the next few weeks or months would bring.

It was a powerful reminder to MPs that away from the parliamentary process and bill scrutiny, ultimately, this is what the legislation is all about.

There was a (questionable) assurance from Lord Falconer that the House of Lords would respect the will of the people and the bill will pass through the upper chamber without difficulty.

The timetable is tight, but it appears the country is ready for change – a historic one.

On Friday, MPs will vote on a number of amendments proposed by Ms Leadbeater after months of discussions with the assisted dying committee, made up of MPs both for and against the bill.

At the start of the session they will vote on a person not being eligible for assisted dying if their wish to end their life was substantially motivated by factors such as not wanting to be a burden, a mental disorder, a disability, financial considerations, a lack of access to care, or suicidal ideation.

People opposed to assisted dying demonstrate in Parliament Square. Pic: PA
Image:
People opposed to assisted dying demonstrate in Parliament Square. Pic: PA

The Speaker has indicated he will also choose these amendments for MPs to vote on:

• Supported by Ms Leadbeater – Requiring the government to publish an assessment of palliative and end-of-life care within a year of the bill passing

• Supported by Ms Leadbeater – A person cannot be considered terminally ill solely because they voluntarily stopped eating or drinking

• Not supported by Ms Leadbeater – Disapply the presumption a person has capacity unless the opposite is established

• Not supported by Ms Leadbeater – Prevent section 1 of the NHS Act 2006, which sets out the NHS’ purpose, from being amended by regulations.

Continue Reading

Politics

Polymarket gives US stablecoin bill 89% chance of becoming law

Published

on

By

Polymarket gives US stablecoin bill 89% chance of becoming law

Polymarket gives US stablecoin bill 89% chance of becoming law

The platform launched the betting market for the GENIUS Act after the US Senate passed it on Tuesday.

Continue Reading

Trending