It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.
On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.
When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.
Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.
But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.
The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.
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The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.
The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.
Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.
Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.
But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.
Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.
Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.
This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.
The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.
Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.
Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.
And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?
There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.
Humiliation for Tories in Somerset
The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.
The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.
The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.
This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.
Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.
That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.
Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.
Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.
Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.
Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.
The UK could see one of the hottest June days on record today, with temperatures reaching a scorching 34C.
Since 1960, UK temperatures in June have surpassed 34C in only three years, with the hottest being 35.6C, recorded on 28 June 1976.
It will be the fourth day of a heatwave for much of England, which is forecast to be hotter than holiday spots in Barbados, Jamaica and Mexico.
Image: People enjoy the warm weather on Durley Chine Beach in Dorset. File pic: PA
Wimbledon is set for its hottest ever opening day, with temperatures expected to beat the previous record of 29.3C set on 25 June 2001. The hottest day of the tournament was seen on 1 July 2015, when temperatures reached 35.7C.
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It could also be a tropical night, with parts of England staying above 20C overnight into Tuesday, the Met Office said.
On Tuesday parts of southeast England could hit 35C, though Scotland and Northern Ireland face heavy rain and cooler temperatures.
An amber heat health alert came into force on Friday – the second in two weeks.
The alert, which covers London, the East Midlands, the South East, and the East of England, lasts until 6pm on Tuesday.
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The UK Health Security Agency also issued a yellow alert for Yorkshire and the Humber and the West Midlands for the same period – warning of significant impacts on health and social care services.
An amber alert was previously issued for all regions in England on 19 June, the first time it had been used since September 2023.
An official heatwave is recorded when areas reach a certain temperature between 25-28C for three consecutive days. The threshold varies across the UK.
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London Fire Brigade assistant commissioner Thomas Goodall said London “is already facing its second heatwave of the year” and warned “high temperatures and low rainfall in recent months means the current risk of wildfires is severe”.
He said firefighters have responded to around 14 wildfires in the capital so far this year and said it is “important everyone acts responsibly to prevent fires from occurring”.
“As the weather has been so dry, it only takes a few sparks to lead to a fire spreading rapidly,” he said. “In London, this can be dangerous because so many of our green spaces lie close to homes and other properties.”
Image: Festivalgoers at this year’s Glastonbury. Pic: PA
It comes after major heatwaves across southern Europe left Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece in sweltering conditions of more than 40C over the weekend.
Temperatures were well above average in parts of southern Spain, with 46.8C recorded in Tresviso.
Two-thirds of Portugal was on high alert for extreme heat and wildfires, while several Italian regions banned outdoor work during peak hours of sun on Sunday.
The Italian health ministry also placed 21 out of 27 monitored cities under its highest heat alert, including top tourist spots Rome, Milan and Naples.
Greece was on high wildfire alert because of the extreme weather, after a large wildfire broke out south of Athens on Thursday, which was fanned by strong winds and damaged several houses.
Dozens of MPs have called on Sir Keir Starmer to “urgently” establish a Ukraine-style visa to allow Gazans with family in the UK to come to Britain.
In a letter seen exclusively by Sky News, the 67 MPs and Lords from across the political spectrum, have asked the prime minister and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper to create a “Gaza Family Scheme” to “reunite [Palestinians] with their loved ones in the UK until it is safe to return”.
“Just as the UK opened its doors to those fleeing persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong, we believe that the same generosity should be extended to Palestinian families,” the letter says.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the UK opened up the Ukraine Family Scheme allowing Ukrainian nationals to join family members in the UK and live, work and study in the UK for up to three years. Applications closed in February 2024.
Two years before, the UK opened the British National (Overseas) visa to allow Hong Kongers fleeing after a strict national security law was imposed by China to live in the UK for five years then apply for British citizenship.
Image: The letter is also addressed to Yvette Cooper. Pic: PA
The letter, sent to the PM on Sunday evening, has been signed by 35 Labour MPs and House of Lords members, including Marsha de Cordova, Clive Lewis, Stella Creasy, Richard Burgon, Kim Johnson, Afzal Khan, Rachael Maskell, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Andy Slaughter and Alex Sobel.
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell are among a handful of former Labour MPs suspended from the party last year to sign the letter, as are all four Green MPs, Lib Dem MPs Tim Farron and Layla Moran, several Northern Ireland MPs and SNP MPs Graham Leadbitter and Brendan O’Hara.
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The Bishop of Chelmsford, Dr Guli Francis-Dehquani, has also signed the letter.
Only one Conservative, former special adviser to William Hague, Baroness Helic, signed it.
In the letter, the politicians express their “grave concern at the immense suffering inflicted on Palestinians in Gaza”.
They accuse Israel of “shattering the temporary ceasefire agreement”, weaponising starvation, and intensifying its “campaign of bombardment and military assaults, and targeting of people accessing humanitarian aid”.
Image: Labour MP Marsha de Cordova organised the letter calling for a Ukraine-style family visa for Gazans. Pic: Parliament.uk
Labour MP Marsha de Cordova, who helped organise the letter with the Gaza Families Reunited campaign, told Sky News: “The Ukrainian Family Visa Scheme was the right response to a brutal war.
“Establishing a Gaza Family Visa Scheme would be an extension of those same principles, showing that this government is steadfast in its commitment to helping families experiencing the worst horrors of war.
“It is time for the government to act now to help British Palestinians get their loved ones to safety, enabling them to rebuild their lives.”
The MPs also say in the letter that since Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking 250 hostage, at least 53,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and “the real death toll is likely to be exponentially higher”.
They say a Gaza Family Scheme would allow Palestinians in Gaza to reunite with their families – “people they may never see again unless urgent action is taken”.
The MPs say many Gazans who have attempted to come to the UK have “struggled to navigate the immigration system”, especially as they are required to provide biometrics to apply for a visa but that is “impossible due to the destruction of the visa application centre in Gaza and blockade of the Rafah crossing”.
They say there are a lack of safe zones or ways out of Gaza and some have constituents with family members who have fled Gaza to Egypt but “are stuck in limbo, with no access to schools or healthcare to begin the process of rebuilding their lives”.
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Dozens dead in Gaza after Israeli strikes
The letter adds that it would be a “vital step” towards addressing the UK government’s “historical, present, and ongoing responsibility towards Palestinians in Gaza” and the UK has a “duty to take all necessary steps to hold Israel to account for its crimes”.
Ghassan Ghaban, spokesperson for Gaza Families Reunited, said “family unity is an undeniable human right” and said Labour in opposition urged the Conservative government to do more to help British Palestinians get their relatives to safety.
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“We are still waiting for the new government to do the right thing,” he said.
“We, as Palestinians in the UK, simply want the opportunity to bring our loved ones from Gaza to safety, until it is safe to return.
“The UK welcomed those fleeing war and persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong with open arms. All we are asking for is the same treatment to be extended to our family members who have experienced unimaginable trauma as a result of Israel’s genocide in Gaza.”
He added there is “only a small number of Palestinians in the UK”, and an even smaller number with family members in Gaza.
A government spokesperson said: “The death and destruction in Gaza is intolerable.
“Since day one, we have been clear that we need to see an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages cruelly detained by Hamas, better protection of civilians, significantly more aid consistently entering Gaza, and a path to long-term peace and stability.
“There are a range of routes available for Palestinians who wish to join family members in the UK.”
Jessica Ellis is a Chewie. She’s not from a galaxy far, far away but here, right now, working in one of our most deprived communities. To the people she helps, she is a force for good.
We are standing in front of a large block of council flats in Westminster, central London. The entrycom buzzes.
“Hi Mrs Dikir, how are you?” Jessica asks. And then “thank you” as we’re let in and make our way up five flights of stairs.
Inside the flat, in the living room, Mr Jaber Dikir sits on a soft, plush armchair. It has to be comfortable because Mr Dikir spends most of his days sitting here.
“I have a heart problem, I have open heart surgery and now I have heart failure,” Mr Dikir explains. “I have water in my chest and that gives me big trouble to sleep, to breathe,” he adds as he begins to wheeze.
I ask Mr Jaber how Jessica has been able to help him.
“She hears you, she listens to you,” he replies. “She understands everything. She even called the doctor and he gave me permission to stay at home (for my blood tests). That’s really appreciated. I couldn’t walk properly, I couldn’t go to the clinic.”
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Jessica is a community health and wellbeing worker (CHWWs). That’s where the nickname comes from.
CHWWs work in small teams, going door to door in some of the most deprived areas of the country.
It’s part of an NHS pilot inspired by a successful programme in Brazil.
A simple but effective intervention
Jessica says her role is “to make life easier”. Mr Dakir, she tells me, is struggling with his mobility. So is organising a designated disabled bay.
“Mr Dakir is struggling to get out to his appointments, and the GP needs a blood test from him. So I was able to speak to the GP and he’s been labelled as temporarily housebound so the district nursing team can come in now and take the bloods for him at home.”
Image: Jessica Ellis works as a community health and wellbeing worker in Westminster
A simple but effective intervention that has a huge impact on Mr Dakir and the NHS.
The project is currently being used in 15 neighbourhoods around the country. In Westminster, there has been a 7% drop in A&E admissions and an 11% reduction in hospital admissions year on year.
There has also been a 47% increase in the likelihood of households having vaccinations, an 82% increase in cancer screenings and a 7.3% drop in unscheduled GP consultations.
Taking community care right to the patient’s door
Dr Melinda Creme is a local GP. Jessica acts as a conduit between Dr Creme and her patients.
Image: Dr Melinda Creme, a GP in Westminster
“We need to look at the costs of what might happen downstream if disease is not picked up earlier, if health inequalities are not addressed sooner, and so there should be potential huge savings down the line.
“It might take five years, 10 years to make a difference and that’s the issue, because obviously governments change within that time.
“But if there’s a long-term lens on this, then we stand a chance of being able to afford a health service free at the point of delivery.”
This is exactly what the government wants, what the NHS wants, to bring care into the community. With this project, they are taking community care right to the patient’s door.
Image: Community health and wellbeing worker Jessica Ellis visits Jaber Dikir, who has a heart condition, at his home
Dr Creme says the days when people would go to their GP and expect their family doctor to look after anybody and everybody about everything are gone.
“We can’t possibly do that. We’re not equipped to do that because the population is expanding and we cannot address all needs.”
Labour’s 10-year health plan set for launch
The government is expected to focus on personalised and community care in its 10-year health plan when it is published on Thursday.
It will look to ease pressure on buckling emergency departments and models like this have shown early signs of good results, but they require time and investment.
Projects like this can help ease the strain on services facing record pressures and tight budgets. They could be a significant part of a wider NHS plan.