Rishi Sunak’s situation is salvageable – but he’s currently on course to lose No 10 at next election
Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.
This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.
Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned
No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.
And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.
And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.
By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather
But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.
All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.
All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.
Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.
It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.
So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.
But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.
In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.
However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.
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Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty
But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.
Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.
The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.
Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.
The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.
Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.
But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?
The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.
UK drivers are “confused” by the country’s electric car transition, ministers are being warned.
Although most drivers are not hostile towards electric vehicles (EVs), many are confused about what changes are coming and when, according to new research from the AA.
In a survey of more than 14,000 AA members, 7% thought the government was banning the sale of used petrol and diesel cars.
Around a third thought manual EVs exist, despite them all being automatic.
More than one in five said they would never buy an EV.
The government’s plan for increasing the number of electric vehicles being driven in the UK focuses heavily on increasing the supply of the vehicles.
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What you can do to reach net zero
In 2024, at least 22% of new cars and 10% of new vans sold by each manufacturer in the UK had to be zero-emission, which generally means pure electric.
Each year, those percentages will rise, reaching 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans in 2030.
Manufacturers will face fines of £15,000 per vehicle if electric vehicle sales fall short of 28% of total production this year.
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By 2035, all new cars and vans will be required to be fully zero emission, according to the Department for Transport.
Second-hand diesel and petrol cars will still be allowed to be sold after this date, and their fuel will still be available.
There are more EVs – but will people buy them?
In February, 25% of new cars were powered purely by battery and in January, they made up 21% of all new cars registered in the UK.
But despite the growth of electric sales, manufacturers continue to warn that the market will not support the growth required to hit government EV targets, and called for consumer incentives and the extension of tax breaks.
The AA suggested the government’s plan focuses on “supply but does little to encourage demand for EVs”.
It called on ministers to co-ordinate a public awareness campaign alongside the motoring industry which directly targets drivers who doubt the viability of EVs.
“Our message to government is more needs to be done to make EVs accessible for everyone,” said Jakob Pfaudler, AA chief executive.
Which? head of consumer rights Sue Davis said: “When it comes to making sustainable choices such as switching to an electric car, our research shows that people are often held back by high costs, complex choices or uncertainty.
“The government needs to provide the right information on electric vehicles and other sustainable choices so that people have the confidence to switch.”
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “We’re investing over £2.3bn to help industry and consumers make a supported switch to EVs.
“This includes installing a public charge point every 28 minutes, keeping EV incentives in the company car tax regime to 2030, and extending 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars for another year.
“Second-hand EVs are also becoming cheaper than ever, with one in three available under £20,000 and 21 brand new models available for less than £30,000.
“We’re seeing growing consumer confidence as a result.”
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