Rishi Sunak’s situation is salvageable – but he’s currently on course to lose No 10 at next election
Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.
This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.
Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned
No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.
And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.
And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.
By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather
But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.
All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.
All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.
Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.
It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.
So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.
But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.
In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.
However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.
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Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty
But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.
Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.
The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.
Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.
The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.
Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.
But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?
The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.
A crew member remains missing after an oil tanker and cargo ship collided in the North Sea off the coast of East Yorkshire.
Dozens of people abandoned the vessels after the crash just before 9.50am, with the Coastguard rescuing 36 people.
All 23 on board the oil tanker Stena Immaculate are accounted for – but one of the 14 crew members of the Solong cargo ship is still missing.
A Coastguard search was called off around 9.40pm, while both vessels were both still on fire.
One of the 36 people rescued was taken to hospital.
Sky News understands there is a five-mile air and sea exclusion zone around the location of the incident, which may be widened to 10 miles if later required.
Read more: What we know about the collision
Both ships are on fire following the collision
The Stena Immaculate was carrying jet fuel and was on a short-term charter to the US Navy at the time of the incident.
The cargo ship was reportedly carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide and an unknown quantity of alcohol.
Two maritime security sources told Reuters there was “no indication” of any malicious activity or other actors involved in the incident.
Ambulances leaving the scene
‘Multiple explosions onboard’
US logistics group Crowley, which manages oil tanker Stena Immaculate, confirmed the vessel had released some jet fuel after sustaining a ruptured cargo tank.
The firm said it initiated its emergency vessel response plan and is “actively working with public agencies to contain the fire and secure the vessel”.
Crowley added: “Our first priority is the safety of the people and environment. We will provide more updates as information becomes available.”
Read more: Environmental impact of collision depends on at least three things
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Downing Street ‘monitoring situation’
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was an “extremely concerning situation”.
He said: “We thank the emergency services for their rapid response. I understand the Department for Transport is working closely with the coastguard to help support the response to the incident.
“We’re obviously monitoring the situation, we’ll continue to coordinate the response and we’re grateful to emergency personnel for their continued efforts.”
Meanwhile, Hull City Council leader Mike Ross has called for the UK government to set out a rapid response plan in response to the events.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander later praised the work of the emergency services, adding: “The Maritime Accident Investigation Branch has begun a preliminary assessment and I am working closely with the MCA (Maritime and Coastguard Agency) as they conduct an assessment of any counter pollution response which may be required over the coming days.”
Coastguard’s emergency message
Moments after the collision, a message broadcast by the Coastguard warned other ships to stay away from the area.
In audio shared on social media, the Coastguard can be heard warning Solong “has collided” with Stena Immaculate.
“Both vessels are abandoning,” the message continued.
“Vessels who have firefighting equipment or can assist with search and rescue, contact Humber Coastguard.
“Stena is carrying Jet-A1 fuel, which is on fire and in the water. Vessels – remain at safe distance.”
East Midlands Ambulance Service sent an incident response unit
‘Inspectors are gathering evidence’
The Marine Accident Investigation Branch is now investigating the collision.
A spokesperson said: “Our team of inspectors and support staff are gathering evidence and undertaking a preliminary assessment of the accident to determine our next steps.”
The oil tanker was sailing under a US flag, while the Solong cargo ship was Portuguese-flagged, according to Marinetraffic.com.
The Solong had been due to travel to Rotterdam in the Netherlands after departing from Grangemouth in Scotland on Monday morning, Marinetraffic.com shows.
A map from Marinetraffic.com shows the oil tanker (red) and the cargo ship before the crash
Moving images on the tracking site suggest the oil tanker had remained stationary as the Solong headed straight towards it before the collision.
It is believed the Stena Immaculate, which was travelling from Greece to the UK, was anchored at the time.
David McFarlane, director Maritime Risk and Safety Consultants, told Sky News it can take up to an hour to raise an anchor – meaning the tanker might not have had time to get out of the way.
It comes as Martyn Boyers, chief executive of the Port of Grimsby East, said the container ship may have been on autopilot at the time of the crash.
“Autopilot just steers a course, they don’t deviate, there’s no bend in the sea,” he added.
The Portuguese-flagged vessel Solong. File pic: NAC
The US flagged Stena Immaculate. File pic: Kees Torn
Video shows smoke billowing from the ships. Pic: North Yorkshire Weather Updates
Visibility in the area had been poor before the collision this morning, according to the Met Office.
“Areas of fog and low cloud lifting as winds increase through the morning, with some warm, if rather hazy sunny spells expected in places for a time,” it said on Monday morning.
The crash involving a cargo ship and oil tanker off the East Yorkshire coast is bad news for the sea, fish and air in the area. What we don’t know yet is quite how bad it will be.
That depends on a few things – but the speed of the collision, clouds of filthy black smoke from the fires and the leaked fuel are certainly worrying.
Firstly, it matters what was on board those two massive vessels.
Follow live: Jet fuel spilling into sea after tanker collision
Analytics firm Vortexa estimates the 183m-long tanker was carrying about 130,000 barrels of jet fuel (kerosene), which is now leaking into the sea.
Jet fuel is not as sticky or viscous as heavier types of oil, thankfully, so it’s less likely to clog the feathers and fur of birds and seals. It can also be broken down by natural bacteria.
But it can still poison fish and kill animals and plants on the shoreline if it makes its way into the soil there.
The Marine Conservation Society has pointed out the site in the Humber estuary is close to some protected areas and is important for seabirds and harbour porpoises.
And both ships will have been powered by a dirtier, heavier kind of oil – likely marine gas oil or heavy fuel oil, though we don’t know the details yet.
Heavy fuel oil is nasty stuff.
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Cheap, thick and tar-like, it can smother animals and is very dangerous if they consume it, and is extremely difficult to clean up. Let’s hope this isn’t creeping around the North Sea already.
We don’t know how much of either the jet fuel or the oil powering the ships has leaked, or how much will be burned off in the violent fires – which themselves are ploughing black smoke and filthy air pollution into the surrounding atmosphere.
And we don’t know for sure what was on the Solong cargo ship and if, or what, will go into the sea.
Cargo ship ‘had sodium cyanide on board’
It was carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide among other cargo, according to a report from maritime data provider Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
The container vessel was also transporting an unknown quantity of alcohol, said the casualty report – an assessment of incidents at sea – citing a message from the local coastguard.
Plastic takes hundreds of years to break down, and potentially can choke or trap animals.
Many of us have seen that uncomfortable viral video of a turtle having a straw yanked out of its nose. Previous accidents on cargo ships have seen plastic Lego pieces wash up in Cornwall 25 years later.
Read more:
How UK North Sea platforms dump gas
Secondly, the impact depends on the sea and weather conditions around it.
Things like the wind and currents affect how an oil spill spreads in the sea. Scientists can draw up computer models to simulate how the oil could behave.
Thirdly, it matters how quickly this is all tackled and then cleaned up, if necessary, and if it can be.
Usually the slower the response, the worse the impact.
The coastguard has said the incident “remains ongoing” and it has started assessing the “likely counter pollution response” that will be required.
Such a response might need the help of numerous public bodies: the government environment department, the transport department, the Environment Agency and the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
So for now the best we can hope for – aside from the welfare of the people involved – is that not all the oil is spilled or burnt, that conditions are calm and that rescuers and those cleaning up can work swiftly.
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