Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.
This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.
All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.
All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.
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Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.
It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.
So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.
But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.
In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.
However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.
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Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty
But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.
Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.
The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.
Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.
The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.
Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.
But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?
The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.
Kosovo feels a “political duty” to process failed migrants from the UK, if legal issues can be overcome, the country’s prime minister has told Sky News.
Albin Kurti said there is “limited capacity” in the small nation, which has a population of fewer than two million people, but that he expected a “successful result” from negotiations.
Talks are under way, he confirmed, between officials from both countries about a migrant returns deal for those whose claims have been ruled ineligible by the UK, and are awaiting deportation to their country of origin.
A Home Office team is exploring options for how one could work, Sky News understands, although no formal request has yet been made to Kosovo to host a facility.
Mr Kurti, who is attending a Western Balkans Summit in London this week, said: “We want to help the UK, we consider that that is our friendly and political duty.
“We have limited capacity but still we want to help, and as we speak, there is regular communication between our teams of state officials from our ministry of internal affairs and lawyers about how to do this smoothly for mutual benefit.
“Of course, we want, as a country, to benefit but we consider it first and foremost our obligation to help you because you helped us a great deal and will never forget that.”
Image: Rescued migrants are brought in by the RNLI to Dover earlier this month. Pic: PA
Western Balkans key allies
Sir Keir Starmer has identified the countries of the Western Balkans as key allies in the fight against irregular migration, with 22,000 people using this route to reach the UK last year.
The UK government has signed agreements to tackle smuggling gangs with Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Kosovo.
Keir Starmer said earlier this year that the government was in talks with unnamed countries about setting up “return hubs” which he called an “important innovation” for individuals who have exhausted all appeals in the UK system.
Kosovo is the first to confirm these negotiations are under way, and further discussions about it are likely in the margins of this week’s summit.
The small eastern European nation and the UK have strong ties, with Sir Tony Blair feted in the country for his government’s role in spearheading NATO airstrikes on Serbia in 1999, which helped end the Kosovo War.
In June, Kosovo made an agreement with the US, negotiated under the Biden administration, to take up to 50 US deportees who met certain criteria. But it is understood only one or two have arrived due to legal issues.
Kosovo would likely be seeking a defence agreement and UK investment in return, with the country concerned about Russian aggression and hostility from neighbouring Serbia.
Image: Tony Blair receiving a hero’s welcome in Kosovo in 1999. Pic: Reuters
Kosovo wants security support
Mr Kurti added: “We would like mainly to get support in security – be that through strategic agreements, or through equipment and projects we might do. Our two teams are working on this, but I think this will have a successful result.”
It is not expected the UK will make a formal request until further legal issues are worked through, which could be significant.
A controversial deal made by Italy in 2023 to send thousands of migrants to two detention centres in Albania has cost millions of euros and been halted by multiple legal obstacles.
Andi Hoxhaj, Balkan expert at King’s College, said: “Such a deal is unlikely to happen at the Summit. Nevertheless, I expect some statement indicating that the UK and one or two Western Balkan countries are close to reaching an agreement.”
“Establishing an agreement with the UK would not be politically sensitive in Kosovo. The country continues to seek deeper ties with one of its strongest allies-one that played a crucial role in its path to independence.”
Kosovo has convict deal with Denmark
Sir Keir was left embarrassed on a visit to the Albanian capital in May when he announced the UK was in talks about return hubs in the Balkans, only for Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama to say he would not allow the UK to “dump immigrants” in his country when it is in a “marriage” with Italy.
Under Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Office has shifted focus to migration – with more staff working on the issue, drawing up sanctions on people smugglers and pursuing returns agreements.
Kosovo has also ratified a deal with Denmark – another active contributor to the NATO-led Kosovo peacekeeping force – to take 300 convicts from its overcrowded prisons, due to start in 2027.
Return hubs are different from offshore processing – which is what the Conservatives had proposed with the Rwanda scheme.
It is proposed that individuals would only be sent to a return hub if their claim for asylum in the UK had been rejected – and they were awaiting deportation.
By sending them to a third country, the government hopes it will prevent people trying to frustrate and delay the process of removal and that it could act as a deterrent to people coming in small boats.
Only 3% of people of small boat arrivals in 2018-24, or around 5,000 people, were returned from the UK, according to the Oxford Migration Observatory, although removals of failed migrants from all routes has increased in the past year.
Officers should focus on “tackling real crime and policing the streets”, Downing Street has said – after the Metropolitan Police announced it is no longer investigating non-crime hate incidents.
The announcement by Britain’s biggest force on Monday came after it emerged Father Ted creator Graham Linehan will face no further action after he was arrested at Heathrow Airport on suspicion of inciting violence over three posts he made on X about transgender issues.
Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said police forces will “get the clarity they need to keep our streets safe” when a review of non-crime hate incidents by the National Police Chiefs’ Council and College of Policing is published in December.
“The police should focus on tackling real crime and policing the streets,” he said.
“The home secretary has asked that this review be completed at pace, working with the National Police Chiefs’ Council and the College of Policing.
“We look forward to receiving its findings as soon as possible, so that the other forces get the clarity they need to keep our streets safe.”
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He said the government will “always work with police chiefs to make sure criminal law and guidance reflects the common-sense approach we all want to see in policing”.
After Linehan’s September arrest, Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley said officers were in “an impossible position” when dealing with statements made online.
Image: File pic: iStock
On Monday, a Met spokesperson said the commissioner had been “clear he doesn’t believe officers should be policing toxic culture war debates, with current laws and rules on inciting violence online leaving them in an impossible position”.
The force said the decision to no longer investigate non-crime hate incidents would now “provide clearer direction for officers, reduce ambiguity and enable them to focus on matters that meet the threshold for criminal investigations”.
Justice minister Sarah Sackman said it is “welcome news” the Met will now be focusing on crimes such as phone snatching, mugging, antisocial behaviour and violent crime.
Asked if other forces should follow the Met’s decision, she said: “I think that other forces need to make the decisions that are right for their communities.
“But I’m sure that communities up and down the country would want that renewed focus on violent crime, on antisocial behaviour, and on actual hate crime.”
The Met said it will still record non-crime hate incidents to use as “valuable pieces of intelligence to establish potential patterns of behaviour or criminality”.