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Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.

This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.

Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned

No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.

And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.

And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.

By election winner and Labour Party candidate Keir Mather speaks at Selby Leisure Centre, North Yorkshire after the results were given for the Selby and Ainsty by-election, called following the resignation of incumbent MP Nigel Adams. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS ByElections. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
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By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather

But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.

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All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.

All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.

Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.

It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.

So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.

But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.

In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.

However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.

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Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty

But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.

Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.

The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.

Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.

The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.

Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.

But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?

The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.

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Grooming gangs scandal timeline: What happened, what inquiries there were and how Starmer was involved – after Elon Musk’s accusations

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Grooming gangs scandal timeline: What happened, what inquiries there were and how Starmer was involved - after Elon Musk's accusations

The grooming gangs scandal is back in the headlines after Elon Musk attacked Sir Keir Starmer and minister Jess Phillips for failing children.

The tech billionaire has accused Sir Keir of being “complicit” in the failure of authorities to protect victims and prosecute abusers while the PM was director of public prosecutions from 2008-2013.

Sir Keir has hit back at Musk, saying his record shows how he tackled the issue head-on.

Politics latest: Former child abuse inquiry chair says new inquiry not needed

The row started after it was revealed last week safeguarding minister Jess Phillips rejected calls from Oldham Council for a government inquiry into historical grooming gangs in the town, with Ms Phillips saying the council should lead an inquiry instead.

She has since hit back after Mr Musk’s subsequent attacks on her.

Sky News looks at a timeline of the grooming gangs scandal, inquiries and Sir Keir’s role.

How did the grooming gangs scandal unfold and what prosecutions have there been?

2001: Names of taxi drivers who allegedly picked up girls from care homes in Rotherham to abuse them are passed to the police and council from 2001. The first convictions were not until 2010, with the latest in 2024 – a total of 61.

2004: A Channel 4 documentary about claims young white girls in Bradford were being groomed for sex by Asian abusers is delayed as police forces warn it could inflame racial tensions. It was finally shown three months later.

2010: 11 men, predominantly of an Asian background, are convicted of offences connected with the sexual exploitation of children in Derbyshire.

2011: Times journalist Andrew Norfolk starts receiving tip-offs about child sexual exploitation by predominantly Asian men in Rotherham. It was his insistence on pursuing the story, despite being called racist and concerns the far-right would latch on to it, that eventually led to a national inquiry.

2011: A girl abused by a grooming gang in Huddersfield writes a letter to a judge about the abuse she had suffered. It was not until 2013 that another victim came forward to police to make formal allegations, then dozens of girls and men were interviewed over the next three years. Victims and their families said they repeatedly told police and authorities but nothing happened.

2011: Operation Bullfinch is launched by the police and council in Oxford to look into a child sex abuse ring in the city. The first convictions are secured in May 2013, then 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2020.

May 2012: The first grooming gangs convictions of men from Rochdale and Oldham see nine found guilty of being part of a child sexual exploitation ring run out of two takeaways in Greater Manchester since 2008. A further five from the Rochdale area were jailed the following year.

May 2013: Seven men have been jailed, it emerges, at the conclusion of child sex abuse trials relating to offences in the Telford area.

Elon Musk in December. File pic: Reuters
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Elon Musk has accused Sir Keir of being complicit in the cover up of grooming gangs. File pic: Reuters

2014: 13 men are convicted of the sexual exploitation of children in Bristol at the conclusion of Operation Brooke.

2017: A total of 29 men from a Huddersfield grooming gang are charged but a reporting restriction prevents media from reporting on the case to avoid prejudicing other cases. The ban was criticised by far-right groups, with Tommy Robinson – also known as Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – jailed for 13 months (later reduced to nine months) after admitting contempt for filming outside a court during the trial.

2018: Twenty men, mainly of Pakistani origin but the ringleader was Sikh, who were part of the Huddersfield child sex abuse ring are convicted of 120 rape and abuse offences against 15 girls, and sentenced to a total of 221 years.

Three separate trials had to be held as there were so many of them. More men have been convicted since then, bringing the total number to 41 by August 2021.

2023: A Grooming Gangs Taskforce is set up by Rishi Sunak’s government, with qualified officers from all 43 police forces in England and Wales, and data analysts. In May 2024, 550 suspects had been arrested and 4,000 victims identified.

2023: Nine further men are charged with sexual offences in Rotherham under Operation Stovewood. Most of the offences took place between 2003 and 2008.

2024: Operation Stovewood sees 11 more men from Rotherham convicted for the abuse of vulnerable girls.

Read more:
Failure to report child sex abuse to become criminal offence

The child abuse inquiry will only protect children if police have the resources
Child sexual exploitation: ‘I’d wake up with bruises up my legs’
Raped at gunpoint: Telford child abuse victims speak out

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‘Lies’ over grooming gangs

What inquiries have there been?

There have been 10 inquiries and reports into the grooming gangs.

2013: The Home Affairs Select Committee publishes a report into the Rochdale cases, finding the failure to protect children fell to police, social workers and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) prosecutors.

2014: An inquiry into grooming gangs in Rotherham, led by Professor Alexis Jay and commissioned by the council in 2013, finds 1,400 children were sexually abused between 1997 and 2013 by predominantly British-Pakistani men.

Then home secretary Theresa May commissions the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse in England and Wales following the Jimmy Savile scandal. Professor Jay became the chair after three others resigned.

Professor Alexis Jay chaired the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse
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Professor Alexis Jay chaired the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse

2015: A West Midlands Police report from 2010 is released publicly after a Freedom of Information request by the Birmingham Mail.

It shows police knew five years before that Asian grooming gangs were targeting children outside schools in Birmingham but were worried about community tensions if it was made public.

2015: A report into Rotherham Council’s handling of child sexual abuse, commissioned by the government and led by Baroness Casey, finds the council had a bullying, sexist culture of covering up information and silencing whistleblowers.

A new police inquiry into child sexual abuse in Rotherham is launched, with 19 men and two women convicted in 2016 and 2017 of sexual offences dating back to the late 1980s.

Former detective Maggie Oliver is interviewed by members of the press outside Greater Manchester Police Force HQ, after three victims of grooming gangs in Rochdale have received "substantial" damages and a personal apology from the chief constable of Greater Manchester Police. Picture date: Tuesday April 12, 2022.
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Former detective Maggie Oliver became a whistleblower for victims. Pic: PA

2015: A serious case review by Oxfordshire Safeguarding Children’s Partnership finds 373 children (including 50 boys) could have been groomed and sexually exploited in the city. It accused Thames Valley Police of not believing children when they complained.

2019: An independent review into historic child sexual exploitation in Oldham shisha bars from 2011 to 2014 is commissioned by Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham after Oldham council requested it.

2020: The Home Office refuses to release research into grooming gangs as it said it is not in the public interest. Following public pressure it releases the report, which finds no credible evidence any one ethnic group is over represented in child sexual exploitation. It is branded a whitewash by critics.

2022: The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse by Professor Jay is published after 12 years. It finds police and councils downplayed the scale of the problem and children were often blamed for their abuse.

It makes recommendations, including mandatory reporting of child sexual abuse by people working with children, the establishment of a national financial compensation scheme for victims “let down by institutions” and the creation of a child protection authority.

Several young women have told Sky News they were abused by grooming gangs in Hull
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Several inquiries have found grooming gang victims were not believed and there were fears of racism accusations. File pic

2022: Oldham councillors called for a government inquiry into grooming gangs in the town but the Conservative government rejected it and said the local authority should commission a review.

2022: Greater Manchester’s inquiry into Oldham grooming gangs was released. It found the police and council failed to protect vulnerable children and covered up their failings.

2022: The Telford independent inquiry was published and found more than 1,000 children in the town were sexually exploited and the abuse was allowed to continue for years, with children often blamed.

The inquiry found issues were not investigated because of nervousness about race, with teachers and youth workers discouraged from reporting child sexual exploitation.

2024: Oldham councillors again called for a government inquiry but safeguarding minister Jess Phillips said the council had to carry it out.

What is Sir Keir Starmer’s involvement?

2008-2013: Sir Keir Starmer was director of public prosecutions (DPP), head of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) which conducts criminal prosecutions in England and Wales, for five years.

2009: The CPS was criticised for not prosecuting Rochdale grooming gang suspects in 2008 and 2009. It said the main victim was “unreliable” so dropped the case.

2010-2011: In that financial year, child sexual abuse prosecutions reached 4,794 – the highest during Sir Keir’s time as DPP. In 2016/17, nearly there were nearly 7,200 prosecutions.

2011: The decision to not prosecute in Rochdale was overturned by Nazir Afzal, chief prosecutor for northwest England, appointed by Sir Keir.

2013: A Home Affairs Committee report said unlike other agencies, the CPS had “readily admitted victims had been let down by them and have attempted both to discover the cause of this systemic failure and to improve the way things are done so as to avoid a repetition of such events”.

Keir Starmer during a visit to Elective Orthopaedic Centre in Epsom, Surrey.
Pic: PA
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Keir Starmer and Elon Musk have been sparring over the PM’s role in the grooming gangs scandal. Pic: PA

The report added: “Mr Starmer has striven to improve the treatment of victims of sexual assault within the criminal justice system throughout his term as DPP.”

Maggie Oliver, a former Manchester detective and whistleblower, told the BBC the CPS “bears a great deal of responsibility for the failures around this issue”, including bringing inadequate charges and blaming victims.

2013: Sir Keir revised guidance on child sexual exploitation to make future prosecutions easier. Before, victims may not have been viewed as credible if they had not complained immediately, if they had used drugs or alcohol, or dressed and acted in particular ways.

2013: The Child Sexual Abuse Review Panel was created by Sir Keir to review CPS decisions not to bring charges or terminate proceedings after 5 June 2013.

What has Elon Musk said?

The billionaire, who posts on X, which he owns, many times every day, has also given a series of interviews, and has commented on the grooming gangs and child sex exploitation cases in the past. He has shown support for both Reform and Tommy Robinson and began to post about the grooming gangs scandal regularly, in response to others, in late December and early January.

31 December: In response to an X post referencing the grooming gangs and claiming “out of political correctness, the government did everything it could to cover up the crimes”, Mr Musk replied: “The government officials responsible, including those in the judiciary, need to fired in shame over this”

In response to a post that claimed that “Parents who attempted to rescue their children were arrested when the police arrived”, he said on X: “So many people at all levels of power in the UK need to be in prison for this.”

1 January: Then, after a series of other posts responding to people expressing similar views, including sympathy for Tommy Robinson and support for Reform, he responded to a post saying “Labour’s Jess Phillips, Minister for Safeguarding, refused to back a public inquiry into child exploitation in Oldham” by saying: “Shameful conduct by Jess Phillips. Throw her out.”

2 January: He responds to a poster by calling for a new election, then…

He posts: “In the UK, serious crimes such as rape require the Crown Prosecution Service’s approval for the police to charge suspects. Who was the head of the CPS when rape gangs were allowed to exploit young girls without facing justice? Keir Starmer, 2008 -2013

“Who is the boss of Jess Phillips right now? Keir Stamer. The real reason she’s refusing to investigate the rape gangs is that it would obviously lead to the blaming of Keir Stamer (head of the CPS at the time).”

Responding to a post criticising what someone called the legacy media, he said: “This is the same media that hid the fact that a quarter million little girls were – still are – being systematically raped by migrant gangs in Britain. They are beneath contempt. Despicable human beings.”

3 January: In response to a post talking about the cost of another public inquiry, he says: “No UK government inquiry for the gang rape of innocent little girls, but £22M spent on an obviously violent lunatic. Shame, shame, shame.”

He went on to accuse Keir Starmer of being “guilty of complicity” and accusing Jess Phillips of being a “rape genocide apologist”.

4 January: He responded to an article in The Daily Telegraph, which claimed to show how the grooming scandal was “covered up”, by saying “How the rape of Britain was covered up” and then later added: “The sniveling cowards who allowed the mass rape of little girls in Britain are still in power … for now”.

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