Connect with us

Published

on

Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.

This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.

Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned

No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.

And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.

And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.

By election winner and Labour Party candidate Keir Mather speaks at Selby Leisure Centre, North Yorkshire after the results were given for the Selby and Ainsty by-election, called following the resignation of incumbent MP Nigel Adams. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS ByElections. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
Image:
By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather

But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.

More on Keir Starmer

All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.

All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.

Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.

It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.

So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.

But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.

In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.

However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty

But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.

Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.

The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.

Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.

The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.

Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.

But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?

The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.

Continue Reading

Politics

Andy Burnham warns Labour not to ‘underestimate the peril’ party is in

Published

on

By

Andy Burnham warns Labour not to 'underestimate the peril' party is in

Andy Burnham has hit out at allies of Sir Keir Starmer for “demanding simplistic statements of loyalty”, claiming they are underestimating the “peril” Labour is in.

The mayor of Greater Manchester insisted his recent interventions have not been about “personal ambition”, but starting an “open debate” about the direction of the party ahead of potentially catastrophic local and devolved elections next year.

In the lead up to Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool this week, the so-called “King of the North” has accused Sir Keir of having no vision for the country, while setting out his own policy proposals.

Follow the latest from our politics team

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

It has fuelled mounting speculation he could launch a future leadership challenge against the prime minister, who in turn has compared Mr Burnham to Liz Truss.

At a fringe event on the opening day of the conference, the Northern mayor said: “I was clear in the interviews I gave last week, I wanted to launch a debate about the direction of the party and getting a plan to beat Reform UK.

More from Politics

“Those out there making calls for simplistic statements of loyalty are underestimating the peril the party is in.”

Two polls this week have predicted Reform UK leader Nigel Farage will become the next prime minister, while a poll of Labour members found more than half of them don’t want Sir Keir to fight the next general election.

Mr Burnham later turned up to a rally about Proportional Representation (PR), in which he insisted he wanted “this government to work”.

He received a rapturous reception as he entered the room, flanked by over a dozen photographers.

Andy Bunrham flanked by media at a fringe event
Image:
Andy Bunrham flanked by media at a fringe event

Mr Burnham made light of the attention, quipping that “there’s nothing more unstoppable than an idea whose time has come”, in reference to PR.

But this was not the focus of the punchy speech that followed, in which he criticised the Labour leadership’s handling of dissent, saying a “climate of fear” was preventing MPs from having an “open debate” about the direction of the party.

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

A handful of Labour MPs have been suspended over the past year for criticising the government on issues like welfare reform and the two child benefit cap, but Mr Burnham has the freedom to be outspoken as he is not a member of parliament.

He said he had been accused of “all sorts of things” in the past week but had done “nothing more than launch a debate”.

Mr Burnham drew clear dividing lines in a recent interview with The New Statesman, as he said the country should be “less in hock to the bond markets”, called for a greater focus on council housing and said public utilities should be nationalised.

It fuelled speculation of an impending leadership challenge, given Mr Burnham fought twice to run the Labour Party while he was an MP, before stepping down in 2017 to run for the metro mayor position. He has not ruled out a return to Westminster and last week claimed Labour MPs have privately asked him to stand.

Sir Keir tried to shut down the narrative by suggesting Mr Burnham’s policies would unleash the economic chaos of Ms Truss, whose fatal mini budget sent the markets into meltdown, as he dismissed the “personal ambitions of the mayor”.

However, in a direct message to “those who say that I’m speaking out purely for my own ambition”, a defiant Mr Burnham said: “I can say to you tonight I am speaking out for the thousands of councillors here at this conference who are worried about going to those doorsteps next May, speaking for the members of the Senedd who, again, are working hard to keep Wales Labour… and, of course, members of the Scottish parliament as well, who want a stronger story about Labour to go to those doorsteps.

“I’m speaking out for the millions of good people around Britain who want a more hopeful direction for the country.

“I think we can do it. I honestly believe it can be done. We can make this government work, we can find that more hopeful direction and we can win again at the next general election.”

The speech was met with a big round of applause from members, while one Labour MP told Sky News it was a “great speech”.

And while cabinet ministers have called for the party to unite behind the prime minister to fight Reform UK – there appeared to a change in tone from Wes Streeting as the first day of conference drew to a close.

The health secretary told a fringe event that the government must be “open to challenge” from within.

He said: “We’ve got to be self-confident enough as ministers to be open to challenge, and openly debate different ideas, because it makes you stronger as a government.”

Continue Reading

Politics

French officials pressured Telegram to censor Moldova election posts: Durov

Published

on

By

French officials pressured Telegram to censor Moldova election posts: Durov

French officials pressured Telegram to censor Moldova election posts: Durov

Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov said that French intelligence pressured Telegram into censoring political content, which he refused to do.

Continue Reading

Politics

Reform’s immigration policy is ‘racist’, says Sir Keir Starmer

Published

on

By

Reform's immigration policy is 'racist', says Sir Keir Starmer

Reform’s immigration policy is “racist”, Sir Keir Starmer has said.

He was reacting after Nigel Farage‘s party said it would axe the right of migrants to apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR), ban anyone who is not a UK citizen from claiming benefits, and force those applying for UK citizenship to renounce other citizenship.

This policy could impact hundreds of thousands of people, although Reform has exempted EU citizens with settled status from its plans to ban migrant access to benefits and its policies on ILR.

Indefinite leave to remain is the status which grants legal migrants the ability to settle in the UK without the need to renew a visa every few years.

Labour conference in Liverpool – follow live updates

Speaking to the BBC, the prime minister and Labour leader said: “Well, I do think that it is a racist policy. I do think it is immoral. It needs to be called out for what it is.”

But he did not condemn those supporting Reform UK.

More on Nigel Farage

Sir Keir added: “No, I think there are plenty of people who either vote Reform or are thinking of voting Reform who are frustrated.

“They had 14 years of failure under the Conservatives, they want us to change things.

“They may have voted Labour a year ago, and they want the change to come more quickly. I actually do understand that.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Can Reform scrap common migration path?

He had said previously: “It is one thing to say we’re going to remove illegal migrants, people who have no right to be here. I’m up for that.

“It is a completely different thing to say we are going to reach in to people who are lawfully here and start removing them. They are our neighbours.

“They’re people who work in our economy. They are part of who we are. It will rip this country apart.”

Labour has proposed its own changes to indefinite leave to remain, although it does not appear to be retrospective like Reform’s.

Read more:
Labour proposes change to migration

PM mounts fightback against Reform

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘I’m proud of the job Starmer’s doing’

Responding to the prime minister on social media, Reform’s head of policy Zia Yusuf said “Labour’s new message to the British electorate just dropped:

“‘Pay hundreds of billions for foreign nationals to live off the state forever, or we’ll call you racist!'”

Polling released at the start of the Labour conference by Survation shows that 65% of party members think Labour is going in the wrong direction, 64% think Sir Keir has done badly since taking office and 53% think the party should change leader before the next general election.

A poll suggests over half of Labour members want Sir Keir to exit before the next election. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A poll suggests over half of Labour members want Sir Keir to exit before the next election. Pic: Reuters

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Housing Secretary Steve Reed defended his government’s record.

He claimed wages went up faster in 10 months under Labour compared to 10 years under the Conservatives.

But he claimed it “takes time” for improvements to really be felt by the public, “so we have to stay on course and not divert on the basis of one poll or another”.

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

Mr Reed said that the “revolving door” of Tory leaders was one of the reasons for Labour’s tricky inheritance – and he was “absolutely” sure Sir Keir should lead the party into the next general election.

The minister went on to brand Mr Farage a “plastic” patriot after the Reform UK leader “begged” the US Congress to put sanctions on British workers.

Continue Reading

Trending