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Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.

This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.

Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned

No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.

And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.

And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.

By election winner and Labour Party candidate Keir Mather speaks at Selby Leisure Centre, North Yorkshire after the results were given for the Selby and Ainsty by-election, called following the resignation of incumbent MP Nigel Adams. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS ByElections. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
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By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather

But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.

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All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.

All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.

Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.

It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.

So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.

But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.

In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.

However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.

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Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty

But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.

Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.

The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.

Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.

The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.

Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.

But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?

The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.

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NYC Mayor doubles down on crypto push ahead of city summit

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NYC Mayor doubles down on crypto push ahead of city summit

NYC Mayor doubles down on crypto push ahead of city summit

New York City Mayor Eric Adams announced partnerships between the city and financial firms as part of his crypto plans.

In a May 12 press conference at Gracie Mansion, the the city’s official mayoral residence, Adams said June Ou, founder of financial services company Figure, and Richie Hecker, CEO of private equity firm Traction and Scale, would be assisting the city in its crypto efforts. He spoke of Ou and Hecker acting as advisers for New York City’s next steps in “economic development and opportunities to serve the public using digital assets.” 

“We are focused on the long-term values of these technologies for our city and its people, not chasing memes or trends,” said Adams, adding:

“If you’re in the crypto, blockchain, Web3 or the fintech space, New York City is open for business.”

Cryptocurrencies, Politics, New York, Donald Trump
Eric Adams addressing reporters on May 12. Source: Yedda Araujo/Cointelegraph

Adams made digital assets a large part of his policy platform after assuming office in January 2022, when he announced plans to accept his first three paychecks in Bitcoin (BTC). In a 2023 financial disclosure, the mayor reported holding between $5,000 and $54,999.99 worth of Bitcoin, but suggested it was worth more in a December 2024 press conference.

Trump DOJ dismissed the corruption case against Adams

Adams had been facing corruption charges over alleged illegal donations from the Turkish government, but Justice Department officials appointed by US President Donald Trump stepped in and directed local authorities to intervene. The case was dismissed with prejudice, meaning it cannot be reopened, in April, and Adams traveled to the White House on May 9 to reportedly thank Trump for his “words of support” during his 2024 campaign.

Related: 8 major crypto firms announce US expansion this year

It’s unclear whether Adams’ May 12 announcement was related to his meeting with the president, who has also pushed significant policies related to digital assets since taking office. Cointelegraph reached out to the mayor’s office for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Adams announced in April that the city would be hosting its own crypto summit on May 20.

Magazine: Crypto City: Guide to New York

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Minister does not rule out ‘supermax’ jails for most dangerous offenders following alleged Rudakubana attack on prison officer

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Minister does not rule out 'supermax' jails for most dangerous offenders following alleged Rudakubana attack on prison officer

“Supermax” jails could be built to house the most dangerous offenders following a spate of alleged attacks on staff, the prisons minister has said.

James Timpson told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge that “we shouldn’t rule anything out” when asked if the most dangerous criminals should be placed in top security prisons.

It comes after Southport triple killer Axel Rudakubana allegedly threw boiling water from a kettle at an officer at HMP Belmarsh on Thursday. Police are now investigating.

Politics latest: PM has undergone a ‘miraculous conversion’, say Tories

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Is the UK prison system broken?

Before that, three prison officers were also allegedly attacked by 28-year-old Hashem Abedi – the brother of Manchester Arena bomber Salman Abedi – with hot cooking oil and “improvised knives”, potentially made from a baking tray.

Speaking from HMP Preston for a special programme of the Politics Hub, Mr Timpson told Sophy Ridge: “We inherited a complete mess in the prison system.

“Violence is up, assaults on staff is up. But for me, we shouldn’t rule anything out.”

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He added: “What we need to do is to speak to our staff. They’re the experts at dealing with these offenders day in, day out. “

Mr Timpson – who was the chief executive of Timpson Group before he was appointed prisons minister last year – said the violence in prisons was “too high”.

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Are we sending too many people to prison?

He continued: “The number of people when you have prisons are so full, and the people in there are not going to education or into purposeful activity.

“You get more violence and that is totally unacceptable. Our staff turn up to work to help turn people.

“They want to turn people’s lives around. They didn’t turn up to work to get assaulted. It’s totally unacceptable.”

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Prison officer ‘will be killed if government does not get a grip’

Reflecting on the crisis facing the UK prison system ahead of the government’s sentencing review, Mr Timpson said a major problem was the high rate of reoffending, saying “80% of offending is reoffending”.

He said people were leaving places like HMP Preston “addicted to drugs, nowhere to live, mental health problems – and that’s why they keep coming back”.

Asked whether every prison had a drugs issue, he replied: “100%.”

“If we want to keep the public safe, we need to do a lot more of the work in here and in the community. But also we need to build more prisons.”

Put to him that making more use of community sentences – thought to be one of the recommendations in the government’s sentencing review – might be considered a “cushy option” compared to a custodial sentence, Mr Timpson said: “There are some people in this prison tonight who would prefer to be in prison than do a community sentence – but that’s not everybody.

“Community sentences need to be tough punishments outside of prison, not just to help them address their offending behaviour, but also the victims need to see punishments being done too and for me, technology has a big part to play in the future.”

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What are Sir Keir Starmer’s new immigration rules?

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What are Sir Keir Starmer's new immigration rules?

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to bring down migration numbers by tightening up the rules on those allowed to come to the UK.

The prime minister promised his new plan will reduce net migration – the difference between immigration and emigration – by the end of this parliament in 2029.

Details of the plans have been published in a white paper, a government document that outlines policy proposals before being introduced as legislation.

Politics latest: Starmer makes migration vow as he unveils crackdown

Sky News has combed through the white paper to bring you the details.

Language requirements

All visa routes will require people to have a certain level of English proficiency.

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People coming with the main visa holders – dependents – will also have to have a basic understanding of English, which they currently do not.

The level of proficiency needed depends on the visa, with a skilled worker visa requiring at least upper intermediate level. Currently, it requires just an “intermediate” level.

To extend visas, people will have to show progression in their English.

Keir Starmer during a press conference on the Immigration White Paper in the Downing Street Briefing Room.
Pic: PA
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Keir Starmer announced the changes at a podium with ‘securing Britain’s future’ on the front. Pic: PA

Settled status

Currently, people have to live in the UK for five years before they can gain settled status.

Under the new plan, they will have to live in the UK for 10 years.

However, “high-contributing” individuals such as doctors and nurses could be allowed to apply for settled status after five years.

A new bereaved parent visa will be created so those in the UK who have a British or settled child that dies can get settled status immediately.

Settled status gives people the right to work and live in the UK for as long as they like, and provides them with the same rights as citizens, such as healthcare and welfare and the right to bring family members to live in the UK.

People with settled status can then choose to apply for British citizenship.

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Sky’s Sam Coates questions PM on migration

British citizenship

People can qualify sooner for citizenship by contributing to UK society and the economy, like settled status.

The Life in the UK test will be reformed.

Social care visa

This visa, which allowed care workers to come to the UK due to a shortage, will not exist anymore.

There will be a transition period until 2028 when visa extensions and switching to the visa for those already here will be allowed.

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‘We risk becoming an island of strangers’

Skilled worker visa

People wanting to come to the UK on a skilled worker visa must now have at least an undergraduate university degree. The minimum was previously A-levels.

There will also be tighter restrictions on recruitment from overseas for jobs with “critical” skills shortages, as well as strategies to incentivise employers to increase training and participation rates in the UK.

Very highly skilled people, in areas the government identifies, will be given preferential access to come to the UK legally by increasing the number of people allowed to come through the “high talent” routes such as the global talent visa, the innovator founder visa and high potential individual route.

A limited pool of refugees will be allowed to apply for employment through the skilled worker route.

EMBARGOED TO 0001 TUESDAY FEBRUARY 18 File photo dated 15/08/14 of a doctor holding a stethoscope. Rising competition for training positions is putting "immense strain" on "overburdened and burnt-out" resident doctors, according to experts. It comes amid warnings that not enough medics are being trained to "meet the needs of our future population", particularly in deprived areas. Issue date: Tuesday February 18, 2025.
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Skilled worker visas will now require at least a university degree, with preferential access for highly skilled people. Pic: PA

Study visas

People on graduate visas will only be allowed to remain in the UK for 18 months after they finish their studies.

Currently, students finishing degrees can stay for two years if they apply for the graduate visa, or those finishing PhDs can stay for three.

Institutions sponsoring international students will have their requirements strengthened, with those close to failing their sponsor duties placed on an action plan and limits imposed on the number of new students they can recruit.

Sponsors, who can cover tuition fees and living costs, include overseas governments, UK government scholarships, UK government departments, UK universities, overseas universities, companies and charities.

Humanitarian visa

The Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan humanitarian visa routes will remain.

However, the government will review the effectiveness of sponsorship arrangements for those schemes so businesses, universities and community groups can “sustainably” sponsor those refugees.

Hundreds of people gather some holding documents, near an evacuation control checkpoint on the perimeter of the Hamid Karzai International Airport, in Kabul. Pic: AP
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The government will continue to support humanitarian visas, such as the Afghanistan one after the Taliban took over Kabul in 2021. Pic: AP

Domestic worker visa

To help prevent modern slavery, the government will reconsider this visa, which currently allows foreign national domestic workers to visit the UK with their employer for up to six months.

Businesses

Companies wanting to bring people from abroad to work for them in the UK will have to invest in the UK first.

To prevent exploitation of low-skilled workers on temporary visas already in the UK, the government will look at making it easier for workers to move between licensed sponsors for the duration of their visa.

The right to family life

A growing number of asylum seekers have used the “right to family life” – Article 8 of the Human Rights Act – to stop their deportation.

Legislation will be introduced to “make clear it is the government and parliament that decides who should have the right to remain in the UK”.

It will set out how Article 8 should be applied in different immigration routes so “fewer cases are treated as ‘exceptional'”.

A group of people believed to be migrants are brought in to Dover, Kent, following small boat crossings in the Channel. Migrants will be told they need to spend up to a decade in the UK before they can apply for citizenship and English language requirements will be increased as part of the Government's immigration crackdown. Picture date: Monday May 12, 2025. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Immigration. Photo credit should read: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire
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A group of migrants was brought into Dover by Border Force as the PM announced immigration changes. Pic: PA

Foreign national offenders

The Home Office will be given powers to more easily take enforcement and removal action, and revoke visas in a much wider range of crimes where people did not serve jail time in other countries.

Deportation thresholds will be reviewed to take into account more than just the length of their sentence, with violence against women and girls taken more seriously.

Enforcement

Sir Keir said the immigration rules – at the border and in the system – will be more strongly enforced than before “because fair rules must be followed”.

People who claim asylum, particularly after arriving in the UK, where conditions in their home country have not materially changed, will face tighter controls, restrictions and requirements where there is evidence of abuse of the system.

Other governments will be made to play their part to stop their nationals coming to the UK, or from being returned.

Sponsors of migrant workers or students abusing the system will have financial penalties or sanctions placed on them, and they will be given more support to ensure compliance.

People on short-term visas who commit an offence will be deported “swiftly”.

Scientific and tech methods will be explored to ensure adults coming to the UK are not wrongly identified as children.

eVisas, which have now replaced physical documents, will help tackle illegal working and support raids on those overstaying their visas or on the wrong visa.

Major banks are legally obligated to refuse current accounts to individuals suspected of being in the UK illegally and to notify the Home Office. This will be extended to other financial institutions.

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