Rishi Sunak’s situation is salvageable – but he’s currently on course to lose No 10 at next election
Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.
This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.
Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned
No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.
And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.
And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.
By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather
But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.
All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.
All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.
Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.
It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.
So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.
But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.
In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.
However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty
But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.
Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.
The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.
Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.
The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.
Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.
But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?
The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.
Sir Keir Starmer has joined other European leaders in Kyiv to press Russia to agree an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
The prime minister is attending the summit alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It is the first time the leaders of the four countries have travelled to Ukraine at the same time – arriving in the capital by train – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
Leaders arrive in Kyiv by train. Pic: PA
It comes after Donald Trump called for “ideally” a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, and warned that if any pause in the fighting is not respected “the US and its partners will impose further sanctions”.
Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Samantha Washington the European leaders are “rowing in behind” the US president, who referred to his “European allies” for the first time in this context in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“So this meeting is all about heaping pressure on the Russians to go along with the American proposal,” he said.
“It’s the closest the Europeans and the US have been for about three months on this issue.”
Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Trump calls for ceasefire. Pic: Truth Social
Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine and its allies are ready for a “full, unconditional ceasefire” for at least 30 days starting on Monday.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement.
European leaders show solidarity – but await Trump’s backing
The hope is Russia’s unilateral ceasefire, such as it’s worth, can be extended for a month to give peace a chance.
But ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian sources told Sky News they are still waiting for President Donald Trump to put his full weight behind the idea.
The US leader has said a 30-day ceasefire would be ideal, but has shown no willingness yet for putting pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree.
The Russians say a ceasefire can only come after a peace deal can be reached.
European allies are still putting their hopes in a negotiated end to the war despite Moscow’s intransigence and President Trump’s apparent one-sided approach favouring Russia.
Ukrainians would prefer to be given enough economic and military support to secure victory.
But in over three years, despite its massive economic superiority to Russia and its access to more advanced military technology, Europe has not found the political will to give Kyiv the means to win.
Until they do, Vladimir Putin may decide it is still worth pursuing this war despite its massive cost in men and materiel on both sides.
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Putin’s Victory Day parade explained
The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈
Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire
The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for a coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
A special constable has been jailed after taking pictures on his phone from bodycam footage showing a dying man.
Former police volunteer William Heggs, 23, was sentenced to 12 months’ imprisonment at Leicester Crown Court on Friday after showing the photos of victim William Harty, 28, to a female colleague and storing them on his Snapchat account.
Mr Harty was found seriously injured in a residential street in Leicester on 25 October 2021 and Heggs had attended the scene, helping with CPR before paramedics arrived.
Mr Harty died in hospital a day later and the man responsible for his injuries, his brother-in-law Martin Casey, was subsequently convicted of his manslaughter.
Heggs showed the pictures he had taken of bodycam footage of Mr Harty’s body to a Leicestershire Police constable, who reported Heggs and said she did not like seeing blood.
His phone was seized and officers discovered other photographs and video clips of bodyworn footage of incidents Heggs had attended on duty, including of a knife seizure, use of baton and pepper spray, and a man with an injured hand receiving first aid.
He also took pictures of a police computer screen, showing details of crimes and suspects, without consent.
Heggs stored the materials in a Snapchat folder and disclosed graphic details – most of which were not in the public domain – about the injuries to a woman who was killed in a road traffic collision he had attended, to a friend on the social media platform.
Heggs was suspended from the force in November 2021 and resigned in October 2024 before pleading guilty to 11 computer misuse and data protection offences this March.
William Harty’s widow Mandy Casey. Pic: PA
‘He has traumatised me’
Mr Harty’s widow, Mandy Casey, said in a victim impact statement read to the court that Heggs “took (her) husband’s dignity when he was most vulnerable”.
“You don’t take someone’s dignity and pride from them on their deathbed.”
She continued: “When I found out special constable Heggs had done this, I just wanted to ask why. He has traumatised me. I feel I will never know if he showed them to others.”
Ms Casey said she was still scared that photos of her husband’s body might appear on social media.
She added that she had lost trust in the police.
Public trust in police ‘significantly undermined’
Judge Timothy Spencer told Heggs, who has autism and ADHD, that he was “probably too immature to be working as a police officer” as he handed down the sentence.
He said Heggs had received “extensive training”, including on the importance of data protection, and knew he should only share materials for “a genuine policing purpose”.
Heggs’s actions had “significantly undermined” public trust and confidence in police, according to the judge.
Read more from Sky News:
Man charged with murder of 87-year-old
Iranian arrested in counter-terror probe
Malcolm McHaffie, from the Crown Prosecution Service, added: “William Heggs abused the public’s trust in the office he held as a special police constable.
“He violated the dignity of the deceased victims for no apparent reason other than what could be considered personal fascination and to gain credibility among his peers.”
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway