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Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.

Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.

But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.

Politics Live: Is Keir Starmer on course to be the next PM?

Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.

That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.

For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.

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It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.

Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.

He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.

For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.

It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.

Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.

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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics

Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour

For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.

One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.

“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.

I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.

Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.

For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.

But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.

“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.

“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”

But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.

“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”

Newly elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club, North Yorkshire, after winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023.
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Labour secured a historic victory in Selby and Ainsty

Sunak and Starmer will both double down

From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.

This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.

There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.

Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).

The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.

But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.

This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.

We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.

General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.

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Anger grows over Prince Andrew’s ‘peppercorn rent’ arrangement as accuser’s memoirs released

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Anger grows over Prince Andrew's 'peppercorn rent' arrangement as accuser's memoirs released

Prince Andrew should give evidence to US authorities, a government minister has said, as anger grows after it emerged he had been paying “peppercorn rent” for two decades.

On Friday, Prince Andrew announced he was giving up his royal titles, including the Duke of York, after new, damaging reports about his relationship with paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

Passages from the memoir released on Tuesday of the late Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexually assaulting her, provide further details of their alleged encounters.

Prince Andrew has always strenuously denied the allegations.

Business Secretary Peter Kyle said on Tuesday he would “support” Prince Andrew giving evidence to US prosecutors.

He added he would also support any decision by the Met Police to investigate allegations that Prince Andrew used a Met bodyguard to gain information on Giuffre.

It comes as anger continues to grow over Prince Andrew’s housing arrangements.

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‘Victims should be in driver’s seat’

‘Peppercorn rent’

The royal has only paid “peppercorn rent” for more than two decades at his Windsor mansion, according to a National Audit Office report published in 2005.

“Peppercorn rent” is a legal term used in leases to show that rent technically exists, so the lease is valid, but it’s nominal, often literally £1 a year or just a symbolic amount.

In practice, it means the tenant pays no rent.

It also shows he was required to pay a further £7.5m for refurbishments.

A document from the Crown Estate also shows he signed a 75-year lease on the property in 2003.

It reveals he paid £1m for the lease and that since then he has paid “one peppercorn” of rent “if demanded” per year.

Read More:
Pressure grows on Andrew to be stripped of dukedom
Key claims from Andrew accuser’s posthumous memoir

The agreement also contains a clause which states the Crown Estate would have to pay Andrew around £558,000 if he gave up the lease.

Pressure is mounting on him to give up the 30-bedroom mansion.

Senior Tory Robert Jenrick called for Prince Andrew to live privately.

‘He has disgraced himself’

He said: “It’s about time Prince Andrew took himself off to live in private and make his own way in life.

“He has disgraced himself, he has embarrassed the royal family time and again. I don’t see why the taxpayer, frankly, should continue to foot the bill at all. The public are sick of him.”

Virginia Giuffre's posthumous memoir was released today. Pic: Reuters
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Virginia Giuffre’s posthumous memoir was released today. Pic: Reuters

Mr Kyle, however, said that would be a question for King Charles.

But he did say MPs could bring forward a motion to strip Prince Andrew of his remaining titles, adding it would be up to Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle to choose one of these motions for debate.

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Prince Andrew: Government faces growing calls to formally strip Duke of York title

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Prince Andrew: Government faces growing calls to formally strip Duke of York title

The government is facing increasing pressure to formally strip Prince Andrew of his dukedom.

Andrew voluntarily gave up his titles last week but will technically continue to hold them unless they are removed by an Act of Parliament.

Rachael Maskell – the independent MP for York Central – told Sky News that 88% of her constituents don’t want the duke “to carry a title bearing the name of our city”.

On the Politics Hub With Darren McCaffrey, she confirmed she is advocating for a change in the law, and argued mechanisms should be in place to remove titles.

“My legislation would be able to be applied to anybody in the future as well, so we wouldn’t have this situation ever having to occur again,” Ms Maskell added.

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‘We don’t want him bearing our city’s name’

Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party (SNP) has also warned new legislation must be put forward without “any excuses and any further delay”.

The SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said: “The public knows this is the right thing to do – and even more importantly, the victims at the heart of the Epstein scandal know that it’s the right thing to do.

“Those implicated in the Epstein scandal have been able to escape justice because they have hidden behind their power and privilege.”

A proposed bill has been put forward that would also strip Lord Mandelson of his peerage – weeks after he was sacked as the UK’s ambassador to the US because of his own ties to the paedophile financier.

Yesterday, the prime minister’s official spokesman said the question of legislation was “a matter for the palace in the first instance” – and Downing Street “supports the judgment of the King” regarding what should happen to Prince Andrew’s titles.

Read more:
How Prince Andrew allegations unfolded

What title loss means for Andrew’s family

Prince Andrew during the Garter Ceremony Procession in Windsor. Pic: PA
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Prince Andrew during the Garter Ceremony Procession in Windsor. Pic: PA

Accuser’s memoir published today

Pressure has been growing on Andrew amid continued reports of his relationship with Epstein, with the royal “vigorously denying” the allegations against him.

The posthumous memoir of Virginia Giuffre – who had accused him of sexual assault and sued him in August 2021 – is being released today. She took her own life in April.

Amy Wallace, who co-authored Nobody’s Girl, said Ms Giuffre would have regarded Andrew relinquishing his titles as a “victory”.

She told BBC Newsnight: “Virginia wanted all the men who she’d been trafficked to against her will to be held to account and this is just one of the men but … even though he continues to deny it, his life is being eroded because of his past behaviour as it should be.”

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Claims Andrew ‘tried to dig up dirt’ on accuser

The new memoir alleges that Andrew asked a royal close protection officer to “dig up dirt” on Ms Giuffre in 2021.

A Buckingham Palace source told Sky’s royal correspondent Rhiannon Mills these claims are “being viewed with very serious and grave concern” – and “should be investigated in the proper and fullest ways”.

‘Police gaslit my sister’

Meanwhile, Ms Giuffre’s brother and sister-in-law have urged the Independent Office for Police Conduct to review the Met’s decision not to continue its investigations into the allegations she made against Prince Andrew.

Sky and Amanda Roberts told Channel 4 News that Ms Giuffre had been “gaslit” by detectives – as well as British and American authorities – in what amounted to a “kick in the stomach” for her.

In other developments, questions have been raised about whether Andrew should have the right to continue living at the Royal Lodge in Windsor.

Details of the financial arrangements surrounding his 30-bedroom mansion have come to light.

A copy of the leasehold agreement obtained by the PA news agency shows he signed a 75-year lease on the property in 2003 at a cost of £1m.

Since then, he has paid “one peppercorn” of rent “if demanded” per year, a term used to describe a small payment that makes a contract legally binding.

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Families of domestic abuse victims are at breaking point – today they hope for answers

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Families of domestic abuse victims are at breaking point - today they hope for answers

What started as a WhatsApp group for dozens of grieving families has ended up gathering enough momentum to reach Westminster.

Warning: This article contains content you may find distressing.

The parents and relatives of loved ones who have taken their own life following domestic abuse are angry, at a loss, but up for a fight.

Sharon Holland is among those furious at how difficult it is to hold a potential perpetrator accountable for their loved ones’ deaths.

Sharon Holland (L), whose daughter Chloe died by suicide
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Sharon Holland (L), whose daughter Chloe died by suicide

Her daughter, Chloe, died by suicide in 2023 after being in a controlling relationship.

Chloe, 23, suffered months of torment at the hands of her former partner. At the time of his conviction, police said Chloe was a victim of a “horrific campaign of coercive and controlling behaviour”.

Two years on, Ms Holland has shared experiences and developed bonds with families who have been through the same trauma.

But charges and convictions for those potentially responsible are rare. That’s despite figures from the Domestic Homicide Project, funded by the Home Office and led by the National Police Chiefs’ Council, showing more domestic abuse victims take their own lives in England and Wales than are killed by their partner.

There were 1,012 domestic abuse-related deaths in England and Wales between 2020 and 2024, of which 354 were suspected suicides compared to 332 homicides.

Sharon Holland said her group 'don't want this happening to someone else'
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Sharon Holland said her group ‘don’t want this happening to someone else’

Families at ‘breaking point’

Ms Holland’s group are now calling for “justice for all victims of domestic abuse-related suicides” by bringing their campaign to Westminster today.

Asked if this is a movement born out of families being at breaking point, Ms Holland said: “Absolutely.

“All of us mums or sisters all feel the same, that we don’t want this happening to someone else. It’s being dragged out for years and during that time the mums are becoming more and more ill, their health is going downhill, they’re stressed out all the time, on alert, and they just can’t get anywhere with it.

“There’s so many warnings with the police or with the NHS with various agencies that this could not end well for their daughters, and unfortunately it takes the person to die, and then we find out what the failings are.”

Families who believe there has been foul play, or know the abuse their loved ones suffered at the hands of an intimate partner contributed to them taking their own lives, say it’s difficult to be taken seriously.

“The majority of them have been fighting for five years,” Ms Holland said. “They’ve been waiting for the police to get back to them or waiting for the CPS to charge.

“One lady has just waited five years, only to finally hear back from the CPS only to find out they’re not going to charge.

“So that poor woman’s health has gone downhill, fighting for her daughter, who she suspects was a staged suicide and got nowhere.”

Pragna Patel said famillies 'are entirely on their own'
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Pragna Patel said famillies ‘are entirely on their own’

‘Heartbreaking’ for families

Families are often fending for themselves, according to Pragna Patel, co-founder of Project Resist, a charity that supports people affected by domestic abuse and violence.

She said families “are having to navigate the system entirely on their own as they try to find out the circumstances in which their loved ones took their lives and to find out how and why this happened”.

“It’s really heartbreaking to see these families knocking at the doors of the police, knocking at the door of coroners, saying: ‘We know these deaths are suspicious, we know there is a history of coercive and controlling behaviour and domestic abuse behind these deaths, and we want you to investigate.’

“On the whole, families are met with a culture of indifference, apathy and ignorance. They’re just not getting the attention they need.”

‘We must do more,’ says minister

Ms Holland and a host of other families will gather in parliament later to meet safeguarding minister Jess Phillips.

Ahead of the meeting, Ms Phillips told Sky News: “Every death linked to domestic abuse is a tragedy. We must do more to prevent them, and I will be meeting Project Resist to discuss how we can hold perpetrators to account more effectively.

“We are funding the Domestic Homicide Project to capture information on domestic abuse related deaths, including suicides, from all 43 police forces in England and Wales to improve our understanding of this issue.

“But more needs to be done. Our upcoming Violence Against Women and Girls Strategy will set out our plans to strengthen our response to all domestic abuse related deaths.”

Jess Phillips
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Jess Phillips

Sky News understands there are a number of active cases being pursued by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).

Part of prosecutors’ assessment of a case includes developing an understanding of the relationship history between the victim and a potential suspect and trying to understand the victim’s state of mind before their death.

But they are relying on evidence and witness statements that need to be taken in a timely manner.

They say they are raising awareness through tailored training about the links between domestic abuse and suicide, so officers are better equipped to exercise “professional curiosity”.

Ahead of the campaign’s launch, a spokesperson for the CPS said: “Domestic abuse is a heinous crime and our prosecutors are actively advised to consider murder and manslaughter charges in suicide cases where there is a known context of domestic abuse or other controlling or coercive behaviour.

“We have previously charged a number of defendants for causing the death of a partner they abused, including in proceedings which are currently active.

“We are also working with police and other stakeholders to ensure these kinds of offences are well-understood – so that we can bring perpetrators to justice for the full extent of their crimes.”

‘You cannot move forward’

Families so far have had to rely on the inquest to scrutinise the circumstances of their loved one’s death.

Chloe died two years ago and hers is yet to happen.

Ms Holland: “The way all this drags out, you cannot sit down, move forward and just grieve. You’re constantly on high alert, fighting everyone, and just hoping that it’ll be over soon.”

A delay for answers and further delay for grief.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK

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