Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.
Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.
But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.
Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.
That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.
For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.
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It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.
Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.
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He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.
Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.
For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.
It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.
Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.
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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics
Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour
For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.
One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.
“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.
I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.
Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.
For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.
But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.
“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.
“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”
But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.
“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”
Image: Labour secured a historic victory in Selby and Ainsty
Sunak and Starmer will both double down
From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.
This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.
There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.
Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).
The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.
But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.
This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.
We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.
General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.
The combination of full prisons and tight public finances has forced the government to urgently rethink its approach.
Top of the agenda for an overhaul are short sentences, which look set to give way to more community rehabilitation.
The cost argument is clear – prison is expensive. It’s around £60,000 per person per year compared to community sentences at roughly £4,500 a year.
But it’s not just saving money that is driving the change.
Research shows short custodial terms, especially for first-time offenders, can do more harm than good, compounding criminal behaviour rather than acting as a deterrent.
Image: Charlie describes herself as a former ‘junkie shoplifter’
This is certainly the case for Charlie, who describes herself as a former “junkie, shoplifter from Leeds” and spoke to Sky News at Preston probation centre.
She was first sent down as a teenager and has been in and out of prison ever since. She says her experience behind bars exacerbated her drug use.
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Image: Charlie in February 2023
“In prison, I would never get clean. It’s easy, to be honest, I used to take them in myself,” she says. “I was just in a cycle of getting released, homeless, and going straight back into trap houses, drug houses, and that cycle needs to be broken.”
Eventually, she turned her life around after a court offered her drug treatment at a rehab facility.
She says that after decades of addiction and criminality, one judge’s decision was the turning point.
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“That was the moment that changed my life and I just want more judges to give more people that chance.”
Also at Preston probation centre, but on the other side of the process, is probation officer Bex, who is also sceptical about short sentences.
“They disrupt people’s lives,” she says. “So, people might lose housing because they’ve gone to prison… they come out homeless and may return to drug use and reoffending.”
Image: Bex works with offenders to turn their lives around
Bex has seen first-hand the value of alternative routes out of crime.
“A lot of the people we work with have had really disjointed lives. It takes a long time for them to trust someone, and there’s some really brilliant work that goes on every single day here that changes lives.”
It’s people like Bex and Charlie, and places like Preston probation centre, that are at the heart of the government’s change in direction.
“As far as I’m concerned, there’s only three ways to spend the taxpayers’ hard-earned when it comes for prisons. More walls, more bars and more guards.”
Prison reform is one of the hardest sells in government.
Hospitals, schools, defence – these are all things you would put on an election leaflet.
Even the less glamorous end of the spectrum – potholes and bin collections – are vote winners.
But prisons? Let’s face it, the governor’s quote from the Shawshank Redemption reflects public polling pretty accurately.
Right now, however, reform is unavoidable because the system is at breaking point.
It’s a phrase that is frequently used so carelessly that it’s been diluted into cliche. But in this instance, it is absolutely correct.
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Without some kind of intervention, the prison system is at breaking point.
It will break.
Inside Preston Prison
Ahead of the government’s Sentencing Review, expected to recommend more non-custodial sentences, I’ve been talking to staff and inmates at Preston Prison, a Category B men’s prison originally built in 1790.
Overcrowding is at 156% here, according to the Howard League.
Image: Sophy Ridge talking outside Preston Prison
One prisoner I interviewed, in for burglary, was, until a few hours before, sharing his cell with his son.
It was his son’s first time in jail – but not his. He had been out of prison since he was a teenager. More than 30 years – in and out of prison.
His family didn’t like it, he said, and now he has, in his own words, dragged his son into it.
Sophie is a prison officer and one of those people who would be utterly brilliant doing absolutely anything, and is exactly the kind of person we should all want working in prisons.
She said the worst thing about the job is seeing young men, at 18, 19, in jail for the first time. Shellshocked. Mental health all over the place. Scared.
And then seeing them again a couple of years later.
And then again.
The same faces. The officers get to know them after a while, which in a way is nice but also terrible.
Image: Sophy Ridge talking to one of the officers who works within Preston Prison
The £18bn spectre of reoffending
We know the stats about reoffending, but it floored me how the system is failing. It’s the same people. Again and again.
The Sentencing Review, which we’re just days away from, will almost certainly recommend fewer people go to prison, introducing more non-custodial or community sentencing and scrapping short sentences that don’t rehabilitate but instead just start people off on the reoffending merry-go-round, like some kind of sick ride.
But they’ll do it on the grounds of cost (reoffending costs £18bn a year, a prison place costs £60,000 a year, community sentences around £4,500 per person).
They’ll do it because prisons are full (one of Keir Starmer’s first acts was being forced to let prisoners out early because there was no space).
If the government wants to be brave, however, it should do it on the grounds of reform, because prison is not working and because there must be a better way.
Image: Inside Preston Prison, Sky News saw first-hand a system truly at breaking point
A cold, hard look
I’ve visited prisons before, as part of my job, but this was different.
Before it felt like a PR exercise, I was taken to one room in a pristine modern prison where prisoners were learning rehabilitation skills.
This time, I felt like I really got under the skin of Preston Prison.
It’s important to say that this is a good prison, run by a thoughtful governor with staff that truly care.
But it’s still bloody hard.
“You have to be able to switch off,” one officer told me, “Because the things you see….”
Staff are stretched and many are inexperienced because of high turnover.
After a while, I understood something that had been nagging me. Why have I been given this access? Why are people being so open with me? This isn’t what usually happens with prisons and journalists.
They want people to know. They want people to know that yes, they do an incredible job and prisons aren’t perfect, but they’re not as bad as you think.
But that’s despite the government, not because of it.
Sometimes the worst thing you can do on limited resources is to work so hard you push yourself to the brink, so the system itself doesn’t break, because then people think ‘well maybe we can continue like this after all… maybe it’s okay’.
But things aren’t okay. When people say the system is at breaking point – this time it isn’t a cliche.
The biggest night in British TV, this year’s BAFTA TV Awards saw the golden masks handed out to a wide spread of shows – with the BBC’s Mr Loverman the only show to take home two awards.
Hosted by Scottish actor and presenter Alan Cumming, the night kicked off with a Traitors skit, before handing out 29 awards, interspersed with a live performance or two.
While Baby Reindeer had gone into the night the most nominated, it took just one prize, as did the much talked about Mr Bates Vs The Post Office. Meanwhile Rivals and Slow Horses, which had also been hotly tipped, went home empty-handed.
Here are some of the top moments from the 2025 TV BAFTAs.
Image: Baby Reindeer star Jessica Gunning won her first BAFTA. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
‘Hello cheeky chops!’
Jessica Gunning took the first prize of the evening, greeting her award with joyful: “Hello cheeky chops!”
Gunning, a first-time nominee, said Baby Reindeer had “changed my life”, reminiscing about her childhood playing make believe and inventing imaginary friends, never knowing she’d eventually end up using her dramatic skills to win a BAFTA.
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The role of Martha has already won her an Emmy, a SAG award and a Golden Globe in the US.
Gunning also wished her co-star and creator of Baby Reindeer Richard Gadd a happy birthday (his 36th), calling him “nipple”, a nickname her character Martha gave to Donny (Gadd’s character) in the show.
Image: Cast and crew of Mr Bates Vs The Post Office take their award. Pic: BAFTA Pic: John Phillips/ Getty Images for BAFTA
‘Liars and bullies’
Mr Bates Vs The Post Office took the limited drama prize, with producer Patrick Spence telling the audience: “Our show didn’t change the law, the people of this nation did that,” before going on to say it showed the public “cannot abide liars and bullies.”
Flagging the journalists and the campaigners who covered the wrongful conviction of the sub postmasters convicted due to Horizon IT scandal, he called making the show, “the greatest privilege of our lives”.
Later, when accepting the special award earned by ITV for commissioning the show, the channel’s managing director Kevin Lygo said he’d “never seen anything quite like” the impact of Mr Bates Vs The Post Office.
Flagging the large number of people impacted by the scandal who were still waiting for compensation, Lygo didn’t mince his words, demanding: “Hurry up and pay these people what they’re due.”
Image: Danny Dyer is a proud – and sweary – BAFTA winner. Pic: PA
Watch your mouth
Several winners were so excited they couldn’t refrain from a little blue language.
Accepting his first BAFTA for best male comedy performance, Danny Dyer dropped the f-bomb numerous times.
In his speech, Dyer thanked his co-star and the show’s creator Ryan Sampson, calling him “one of the greatest things to have come out of Rotherham”.
He praised Sampson for “never doing the same thing twice”, adding with tongue in cheek, “It’s not something I can say”. Dyer concluded his speech with a nod to his family, and a final trademark “f***”.
Meanwhile, a very excited Sophie Willen stepped up to accept the prize for scripted comedy.
The Taskmaster alumni told the crowd: “I’m not allowed to swear and all I want to do is go beep, beep”, before calling her win “bloomin’ fabulous”.
Willen – whose part autobiographical comedy Alma’s Not Normal tackles the care system, drug addiction, mental illness, and terminal cancer – called her cast and crew “shit hot”, before catching herself, then repeating “shit, shit”.
Image: Ruth Jones with her BAFTA for Gavin & Stacey. Pic: Kate Green/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
‘I love you James’
Taking the prize for female performance in a comedy, Ruth Jones channelled her inner Nessa, saying: “I’m not going to lie, this is immense.”
Thanking the cast and crew, she became emotional as she added: “The person I would like to thank most is my dear, dear talented friend James Corden.” The cameras of course then panned to a chuffed looking Corden, sitting in the audience.
She went on to say that without him, “Vanessa Shanessa Nessa Jenkins would not exist”, paying tribute to their 17 years writing together, adding, “long may it continue” – and so perhaps giving hope for a new Jones/Corden collaboration to follow Gavin And Stacey’s final act?
Image: State Of Rage director Marcel Mettelsiefen. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
War amid the awards
In a sobering moment amid the glitz and the glamour, the director of best single documentary, Ukraine: Enemy In The Woods – filmed by Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline – paid tribute to two contributors to the film who had since been killed in conflict.
Jamie Roberts spoke about two young men he’d worked with on the film, before adding: “They are not here – they are now dead.”
The winner of the current affairs category, State Of Rage, also offered a heartfelt message as they accepted the award for the programme which follows a Palestinian and Israeli family in the West Bank.
German State Of Rage director Marcel Mettelsiefen said: “It would be wrong to stand here without acknowledging what’s happening in Gaza.”
Speaking as a parent, he said: “This violence needs to stop now,” then adding, “let’s break this silence together.”
Image: Kirsty Wark celebrates her fellowship. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
‘I’ve interviewed musicians – and a few monsters’
Former Newsnight presenter Kirsty Wark received a standing ovation as she collected her BAFTA fellowship – the body’s highest accolade.
Accepting her award, Wark said: “Thank you so much to BAFTA. It is a privilege and an honour to have my name added to such an incredible roll call. My work continues to give me so much, not just wonderful friends and colleagues.”
The veteran broadcaster continued: “Things have changed so much, so radically, since the ’70s, not least the shoulder pads, the office drinks trolley, shooting on reversal for a fast edit, and film crews, the size of football teams, but always the chance to learn and grow and I’ve been lucky to interview everyone from politicians to painters, architects, economists, musicians and a few monsters.”
Wark added that the “most joyous change in television” has been “the number of women in senior roles”.
Image: ‘Mr Cruises’ aka Rob Brydon accepts Would I Lie To You’s first BAFTA. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
Would I Lie To You wins its first BAFTA
Everyone loves a conspiracy theory, and this year it could be courtesy of BAFTA and a big boat.
Accepting the entertainment award for perennial favourite Would I Lie To You, host Rob Brydon said: “This is a surprise.”
Team captain Lee Mack then added: “We’ve been nominated for eight years but now ‘Mr Cruises’ has done it for us,” referring to Brydon’s adverts for P&O cruises – the sponsor of tonight’s event.
“The whiff of scandal is in the air,” quipped Brydon.
In Memoriam
The In Memoriam section of the night was accompanied by live music by concert violinist and social media sensation Esther Abrami.
Always a poignant moment in the evening, it included a wide variety of stars who passed away this year including Shannon Doherty, Tony Slattery, Paul Danan, Henry Kelly, Linda Nolan, Michael Moseley, The Vivienne and Timothy West.
Image: Sir David Suchet became Poirot – briefly – to hand out the best actress award. Pic: John Phillips/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
Poirot presents best actress
Awarding the best actress prize, Sir David Suchet channelled his most famous on-screen character, Hercule Poirot, greeting the audience with “Mesdames, Messieurs” to wild applause.
He went on, in the words of the bumbling Belgian detective: “I expect you’re wondering why I’ve gathered you here tonight?”
Image: Marisa Abela with her BAFTA for leading actress. Pic: Kate Green/BAFTA/Getty Images for BAFTA
In a surprise win, Industry star Marisa Abela took the prize and had to be helped up on to the stage due to the length and tightness of her sparkling black gown.
Clearly surprised by her win, and becoming tearful, as she paid tribute to her drama school teacher who she said was in the audience that night, she also paid tribute to her mother, also an actress, without whom she said she’d never be on the stage accepting her first BAFTA aged just 28.