Strap in for a vicious and epochal fight for No 10 as Sunak and Starmer double down after by-election blows

Published

2 years ago

July 21, 2023

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Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.

Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.

But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.

Politics Live: Is Keir Starmer on course to be the next PM?

Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.

That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.

For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.

It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.

Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.

He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.

For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.

It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.

Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.

Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour

For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.

One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.

“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.

I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.

Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.

For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.

But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.

“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.

“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”

But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.

“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”

Sunak and Starmer will both double down

From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.

This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.

There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.

Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).

The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.

But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.

This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.

We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.

General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.

UK

Three teenagers charged with murder after death of man, 49, in Kent

Published

3 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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Three teenagers charged with murder after death of man, 49, in Kent

Three teenagers have been charged with the murder of a man in Kent.

Kent Police were called to an incident in Leysdown-on-Sea, on the Isle of Sheppey, shortly after 7pm on Sunday.

Alexander Cashford, 49, from Kent, was found dead at the scene, having suffered multiple injuries.

He was allegedly assaulted following a “disturbance involving a small group of people”, according to police.

A 16-year-old girl and two boys, aged 14 and 15, were arrested and taken into custody shortly after.

The three suspects, who were all from London, were charged with murder by joint venture on Tuesday.

They are due to appear before Medway Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday. The teenagers cannot be named for legal reasons.

A 12-year-old girl was arrested on Tuesday in Basildon, Essex, in connection with the incident.

She remains in custody while enquiries continue.

Kent Police are appealing for witnesses who have not yet spoken to detectives to contact the force.

UK

‘Disturbing’ rise in abusive teen relationships – as experts warn of signs to look out for

Published

7 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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'Disturbing' rise in abusive teen relationships - as experts warn of signs to look out for

Marnie’s first serious relationship came when she was 16-years-old.

Warning: This article contains references to strangulation, coercive control and domestic abuse.

She was naturally excited when a former friend became her first boyfriend.

But after a whirlwind few months, everything changed with a slow, determined peeling away of her personality.

“There was isolation, then it was the phone checking,” says Marnie.

As a survivor of abuse, we are not using her real name.

“When I would go out with my friends or do something, I’d get constant phone calls and messages,” she says.

“I wouldn’t be left alone to sort of enjoy my time with my friends. Sometimes he might turn up there, because I just wasn’t trusted to just go and even do something minor like get my nails done.”

He eventually stopped her from seeing friends, shouted at her unnecessarily, and accused her of looking at other men when they would go out.

If she ever had any alone time, he would bombard her with calls and texts; she wasn’t allowed to do anything without him knowing where she was.

He monitored her phone constantly.

“Sometimes I didn’t even know someone had messaged me.

“My mum maybe messaged to ask me where I was. He would delete the message and put my phone away, so then I wouldn’t even have a clue my mum had tried to reach me.”

The toll of what Marnie experienced was only realised 10 years later when she sought help for frequent panic attacks.

She struggled to comprehend the damage her abuser had inflicted when she was diagnosed with PTSD.

This is what psychological abuse and coercive control looks like.

Young women and girls in the UK are increasingly falling victim, with incidents of domestic abuse spiralling among under-25s.

Exclusive data shared with Sky News, gathered by domestic abuse charity Refuge, reveals a disturbing rise in incidents between April 2024 and March 2025.

Psychological abuse was the most commonly reported form of harm, affecting 73% of young women and girls.

Of those experiencing this form of manipulation, 49% said their perpetrator had threatened to harm them and a further 35% said their abuser had threatened to kill them.

Among the 62% of 16-25 year olds surveyed who had reported suffering from physical violence, half of them said they had been strangled or suffocated.

Earlier this year, Sky News reported that school children were asking for advice on strangulation, but Kate Lexen, director of services at charity Tender, says children as young as nine are asking about violent pornography and displaying misogynistic behaviour.

“What we’re doing is preventing what those misogynistic behaviours can then escalate onto,” Ms Lexen says.

Tender has been running workshops and lessons on healthy relationships in primary and secondary schools and colleges for over 20 years.

Children as young as nine ‘talking about strangulation’

Speaking to Sky News, Ms Lexen says new topics are being brought up in sessions, which practitioners and teachers are adapting to.

“We’re finding those Year 5 and Year 6 students, so ages 9, 10 and 11, are talking about strangulation, they’re talking about attitudes that they’ve read online and starting to bring in some of those attitudes from some of those misogynistic influencers.

“There are ways that they’re talking about and to their female teachers.

“We’re finding that from talking to teachers as well that they are really struggling to work out how to broach these topics with the students that they are working with and how to make that a really safe space and open space to have those conversations in an age-appropriate way, which can be very challenging.”

Charities like Tender exist to prevent domestic abuse and sexual violence.

Ms Lexen says without tackling misogynistic behaviours “early on with effective prevention education” then the repercussions, as the data for under 25s proves, will be “astronomical”.

At Refuge, it is already evident. Elaha Walizadeh, senior programme manager for children and young people, says the charity has seen a rise in referrals since last year.

“We have also seen the dynamics of abuse changing,” she adds. “So with psychological abuse being reported, we’ve seen a rise in that and non-fatal strangulation cases, we’ve seen a rise in as well.

“Our frontline workers are telling us that the young people are telling them usually abuse starts from smaller signs. So things like coercive control, where the perpetrators are stopping them from seeing friends and family. It then builds.”

Misogyny to violent behaviour might seem like a leap.

But experts and survivors are testament to the fact that it is happening.

UK

US accuses UK of ‘significant human rights issues’ and restricting free speech

Published

14 hours ago

August 12, 2025

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US accuses UK of 'significant human rights issues' and restricting free speech

The US State Department has accused the UK of having “significant human rights issues”, including restrictions on free speech.

The unflattering assessment comes via a new version of an annual Human Rights Practices report, with its publication coinciding with Vice President JD Vance’s holiday in the Cotswolds.

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It says human rights in the UK “worsened” in 2024, with “credible reports of serious restrictions on freedom of expression”, as well as “crimes, violence, or threats of violence motivated by antisemitism” since the 7 October Hamas attack against Israel.

On free speech, while “generally provided” for, the report cites “specific areas of concern” around limits on “political speech deemed ‘hateful’ or ‘offensive'”.

Sir Keir Starmer has previously defended the UK’s record on free speech after concerns were raised by Mr Vance.

In response to the report, a UK government spokesperson said: “Free speech is vital for democracy around the world including here in the UK, and we are proud to uphold freedoms whilst keeping our citizens safe.”

The US report highlights Britain’s public space protection orders, which allow councils to restrict certain activities in some public places to prevent antisocial behaviour.

It also references “safe access zones” around abortion clinics, which the Home Office says are designed to protect women from harassment or distress.

They have been criticised by Mr Vance before, notably back in February during a headline-grabbing speech at the Munich Security Conference.

The report also criticises the Online Safety Act and accuses ministers of intervening to “chill speech” about last summer’s murders in Southport, highlighting arrests made in the wake of the subsequent riots.

Ministers have said the Online Safety Act is about protecting children, and repeatedly gone so far as to suggest people who are opposed to it are on the side of predators.

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The report comes months after Sir Keir bit back at Mr Vance during a summit at the White House, cutting in when Donald Trump’s VP claimed there are “infringements on free speech” in the UK.

“We’ve had free speech for a very long time, it will last a long time, and we are very proud of that,” the PM said.

But Mr Vance again raised concerns during a meeting with Foreign Secretary David Lammy at his country estate in Kent last week, saying he didn’t want the UK to go down a “very dark path” of losing free speech.

The US State Department’s report echoes similar accusations made by the likes of Nigel Farage and Elon Musk.

The Trump administration itself has been accused of trying to curtail free speech and stifle criticism, most notably by targeting universities – Harvard chief among them.