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Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.

Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.

But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.

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Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.

That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.

For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.

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It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.

Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.

He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.

For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.

It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.

Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.

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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics

Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour

For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.

One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.

“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.

I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.

Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.

For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.

But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.

“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.

“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”

But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.

“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”

Newly elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club, North Yorkshire, after winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023.
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Labour secured a historic victory in Selby and Ainsty

Sunak and Starmer will both double down

From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.

This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.

There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.

Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).

The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.

But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.

This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.

We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.

General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.

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3 reasons why stablecoin growth thrives globally — Will US follow under Trump?

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3 reasons why stablecoin growth thrives globally — Will US follow under Trump?

Stablecoin use in emerging markets soars despite the absence of crypto-friendly regulations and basic banking infrastructure. Will the US catch up to this trend?

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Australia ‘should be prepared to contribute’ to securing Ukraine’s freedom, former PM says

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Australia 'should be prepared to contribute' to securing Ukraine's freedom, former PM says

A former Australian prime minister has said his country should be “prepared to make a contribution” to protect the freedom of Ukraine.

Tony Abbott told Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge that no country “will be safe against a bully” if Vladimir Putin wins the war.

He called on Britain to take the lead in protecting Ukraine even without a US backstop – but said all the free countries of the world should be “prepared to make a stand”.

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Mr Abbott, who led the conservative Liberal Party, said: “I personally think that Australia should be prepared to make a contribution to the long term freedom and security of Ukraine.

“The Ukrainians have been fighting for the freedom of everyone. And if Putin is able to snuff out the freedom and the independence of Ukraine, what smaller country anywhere is safe against a bully?

“Is Taiwan safe? Is Australia, for that matter, safe? Is Japan safe?

“This is why it’s important that whatever the Americans ultimately do, the free countries of the world are prepared to make a stand in support of the freedom of Ukraine.”

It comes after Sir Keir Starmer urged America to provide a “security guarantee” to deter Putin and said he is prepared to send British troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is made.

The UK prime minister was speaking following a summit of continental leaders that was arranged by French President Emmanuel Macron, after Donald Trump shocked the world by arranging bilateral talks between the US and Russia – excluding Europe and Ukraine.

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US must provide ‘backstop’ to deter Russia

Mr Abbott said Mr Trump “will blight his second presidency” if he hands a victory to Putin.

“If the result of anything the American president does is to leave Ukraine broken, defenceless, and ultimately a colony of imperial Russia, I think that would be a tragedy,” he said.

He said Sir Keir was “sensible and brave” to consider sending peace keeping troops, but he should be prepared to do this without America’s help, and on its own if necessary.

He said: “Britain is a substantial power. After the United States, it’s the second most powerful country, notwithstanding the current weakness of the British Army. And it should be prepared to take a stand for freedom by protecting Ukraine.

“Britain should be prepared to lead here and it should not expect yet again to ride on America’s coat tails.”

Mr Trump has said the US no longer sees the defence of Europe as its primary concern in a major change of policy since the Second World War.

It has prompted calls for the UK and other NATO countries to increase defence spending.

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Speaking after the Paris summit on Monday night, Sir Keir said a “US security guarantee” is the only path to peace in Ukraine.

But he also insisted “Europe must play its role”, adding: “I’m prepared to consider committing British forces on the ground alongside others if there is a lasting peace agreement.

“So I will go to Washington next week to meet President Trump and discuss what we see as the key elements of a lasting peace.”

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However, despite three hours of emergency talks, European leaders left the meeting without a common view.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the idea of deploying European peacekeepers as “completely premature” and said it was “completely the wrong time to have this discussion”.

And Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen said her country was “open to discussing many things” but stressed her nation was still very far off deploying its own soldiers to Ukraine.

Watch the full interview on the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge from 6.30pm

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Public services prepare for up to 11% cuts – as defence secretary says ‘we must rearm’

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Public services prepare for up to 11% cuts - as defence secretary says 'we must rearm'

Some government departments have been asked to make savings which would amount to a 11% cut in spending – as the prime minister faces calls to raise defence spending.

Sky News has been told that departments which do not have their spending protected have been asked to model two options – “flat” spending, which, adjusted for inflation, amounts to a cut; and a deeper reduction amounting to 11% in real terms.

No final decisions on departmental spending will be taken until the Treasury’s spending review, which sets departmental budgets for three years, and will be completed in June. Decisions on possible spending cuts by departments have been described by sources as “incredibly difficult”.

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It comes amid calls to increase defence spending, in the light of the Trump administration’s warning to European nations to shoulder their own security – and send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP but has not set out when this will be achieved. Ministers say a defence review to be published this spring will set out a “roadmap” to it.

Those departments with their budgets protected include the NHS, childcare and schools, defence and overseas aid at 0.5%.

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What could be hit?

This raises the prospect of more severe cuts for unprotected departments including local government – which is responsible for social care – justice, including courts and prisons; the environment, Home Office and culture.

British Army Apache helicopters on a military exercise last May. Pic: Reuters
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British Army Apache helicopters on a military exercise last May. Pic: Reuters

John Healey the defence secretary, announced a shake-up of defence spending at a speech in Westminster, to focus on “war readiness and deterrence”. He said: “At this time, we must rearm Britain.”

He said: “The decisions that we make right now over the coming weeks will not only define the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, but the security of our world for a generation to come. And the nature of government means dealing with these challenges”.

Mr Healey would not say how quickly defence spending would rise but said conversations over the past week with the US defence secretary Pete Hegseth were about the need to go further.

He said the message was “not new”, adding: “We know as European nations we need to step up on European security, on defence spending and on Ukraine, especially over the last year we’ve been doing just that. What Pete Hegseth accelerated was that recognition that we’re stepping up, but we must go further.”

Raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP would cost ‘£6bn a year’

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that increasing defence spending from its current level of 2.3% to 2.5% would mean finding approximately an extra £6bn a year by the end of the parliament.

He said: “Six billion in our overall budget is not enormous. The problem facing the government is that the fiscal situation is so tight, even finding that kind of money is going to be difficult.

“The last government and this one have increased spending quite a bit across quite a range of public services since 2020. So it’s not that we’re coming right off the back of austerity, but we are still in a position where a lot of government departments, the Ministry of Justice, for example, have got less money now than I had all the way back in 2010.

“So it’s still going to be hard for a lot of these areas to swallow any further cuts or even to cope with flat spending.”

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A Treasury spokesperson said: “The chancellor has asked all departments to deliver savings and efficiencies of 5% of their current budget as part of the first zero-based spending review in seventeen years and every pound of government spending is being interrogated, to root out waste and get the best value for taxpayers.

“National security is a foundation of this government’s plan for change, which is why we have increased defence spending by almost £3bn while delivering the highest pay rise for our armed forces in over 20 years.

“We will set out a path to 2.5% once the strategic defence review has concluded. We will not give a running commentary while the review is undertaken.”

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