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Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.

Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.

But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.

Politics Live: Is Keir Starmer on course to be the next PM?

Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.

That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.

For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.

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It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.

Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.

He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.

For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.

It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.

Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.

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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics

Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour

For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.

One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.

“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.

I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.

Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.

For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.

But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.

“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.

“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”

But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.

“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”

Newly elected Labour MP Keir Mather (centre), with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner at Selby football club, North Yorkshire, after winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023.
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Labour secured a historic victory in Selby and Ainsty

Sunak and Starmer will both double down

From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.

This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.

There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.

Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).

The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.

But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.

This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.

We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.

General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.

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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatens Trump-style visa ban on three countries as part of radical asylum reforms

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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatens Trump-style visa ban on three countries as part of radical asylum reforms

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood plans to impose Trump-style visa bans on three African countries if they fail to take back illegal migrants as part of “sweeping reforms” of the UK’s immigration system.

Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo will face visa sanctions, blocking their tourists, VIPs and business people from travelling to Britain if they do not improve co-operation on removals.

Ms Mahmood said: “In Britain, we play by the rules. When I said there would be penalties for countries that do not take back criminals and illegal immigrants, I meant it.

“My message to foreign governments today is clear: accept the return of your citizens or lose the privilege of entering our country.”

The move was reportedly inspired by President Trump’s homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, who has overseen the mass deportation policy in the US, according to The Times.

Ms Mahmood will address the House of Commons today to lay out “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times”, effectively since the Second World War.

Modelled on the Danish system, the aim is to make the UK less attractive for illegal immigrants and make it easier to deport them.

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Under the plans, the home secretary will bring forward a bill to change how article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), the right to family life, is applied in migration court cases.

The Home Office has said it’s seen a rise in the use of rights-based appeals in recent years as a means of avoiding deportation.

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‘Illegal migration is creating division across UK’ – Shabana Mahmood

The changes would see only those with immediate family in the UK, such as a parent or child, being able to use article 8 in future.

The home secretary, who has been in the job for 73 days, also plans to change the law so that multiple attempts to appeal against refusals for asylum will no longer be allowed.

Furthermore, refugees would face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement.

The Home Office said the “golden ticket” deal has seen asylum claims surge in the UK, drawing people across Europe, through safe countries, on to dangerous small boats.

Under the proposals, refugee status would become temporary and subject to regular review, with refugees removed once their home countries are deemed safe.

Housing and weekly allowances would also no longer be guaranteed.

Mahmood is new hard woman of British politics – and potential successor to Starmer


Amanda Akass

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.

She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.

Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.

“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.

Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.

The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.

Read more

The shake-up also envisages the introduction of safe and legal routes to the UK in a bid to cut dangerous journeys across the Channel.

A new independent body – similar to one in Denmark – is planned to fast-track the removal of dangerous criminals, and last-minute appeals would be expedited.

Ms Mahmood has denied that her plans are “racist”, instead describing them as a “moral mission”.

She said illegal immigration was causing “huge divides” in the UK, adding: “I do believe we need to act if we are to retain public consent for having an asylum system at all.”

What measures is the home secretary set to announce?

  • Refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review – with people facing removal as soon as their home countries are deemed safe
  • Asylum seekers will face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement
  • New safe and legal routes to be introduced for those genuinely fleeing war and persecution
  • Changes to the legal framework that will require judges to prioritise public safety over migrants’ rights to a family life – amid fears that Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights has been used to frustrate removals
  • Using facial age estimation technology, a form of AI ,to rapidly assess a person’s age in a bid to deter people who pretend to be children in an attempt to claim asylum
  • Capped work and study routes for refugees will also be created  

Read more:
Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics
Here’s how the Danish migration model works

Speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Ms Mahmood said she had observed how illegal migration had been “creating division across our country”.

She added: “I can see that it is polarising communities across the country. I can see that it is dividing people and making them estranged from one another. I don’t want to stand back and watch that happen in my country.”

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Govt ‘lacks empathy and understanding’ for refugees

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Britain has always been a fair, tolerant and compassionate country – and this government will always defend those values.

“But in a more volatile world, people need to know our borders are secure and rules are enforced. These reforms will block endless appeals, stop last-minute claims and scale up removals of those with no right to be here.”

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Anti-asylum seeker protest in East Sussex

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch welcomed Ms Mahmood “finally talking seriously about tackling illegal immigration”, but called the plans “weak”.

She said: “If the home secretary actually wants to cut illegal immigration, she should take up my offer to sit down with her and work on a plan that will actually stop the boats, rather than a few weak changes that will meet the approval of Labour MPs.”

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‘Mahmood’s own MPs calling her racist’ – Zia Yusuf

Speaking earlier on Sunday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “The home secretary sounds like a Reform supporter.”

“Sadly with the Human Rights Act and ECHR membership, the changes won’t survive the courts or probably even her own backbenchers,” he added.

The Refugee Council warned that the government would accrue a cost of £872m over 10 years as a result of the need to review asylum seekers’ status to remain in the UK.

Enver Solomon, the charity’s chief executive, insisted the changes “will not deter people from making dangerous crossings, but they will unfairly prevent men, women and children from integrating into British life”.

Latest Home Office figures show 39,075 people have arrived in the UK after crossing the English Channel in small boats so far this year.

The arrivals have already passed the number for the whole of 2024 (36,816) and 2023 (29,437), but the number is below the total for 2022 (45,774).

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Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics – and potential successor to Starmer

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Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics - and potential successor to Starmer

We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.

She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.

Politics latest: Mahmood dismisses ‘tittle-tattle’ over leadership rumours

Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.

“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.

Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.

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‘Illegal migration is creating division across our country’.

The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.

More on Migrant Crisis

But speaking to Sir Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Ms Mahmood firmly hit back at suggestions today’s announcements are pandering to a racist narrative from the far right.

“It’s not right-wing talking points or fake news or misinformation that is suggesting that we’ve got a problem,” she said.

“I know, because I have now seen this system inside out. It is a broken system. We have a genuine problem to fix. People are angry about something that is real.

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Trevor’s takeaway

“It is my job, therefore, to think of a proper solution to this very real problem, to do so in line with my values as a Labour politician, but also as a British citizen, and to have solutions that work so that I can unite a divided country.”

There are many striking elements to this.

While she’s not been in the job for all that long, her government has been in power for 16 months. Her own press release highlights that over the past full calendar year asylum claims here have gone up by 18% – compared with a drop of 13% elsewhere in the EU.

The UK, she argues, has become a “golden ticket” for asylum seekers due to “far more generous terms” than other countries in Europe.

While she politely insists that her predecessor’s policies – the one in one out deal with France, closer partnership with law enforcement across Europe – are beginning to take effect, the message is clear. No one in office before Shabana has had the stomach to grasp the nettle.

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Inside Europe’s people smuggling industry

The Home Office is determined to present their boss as the new hard woman of British politics.

In a bleak warning to those in her party who will be deeply uncomfortable with this unflinching approach, we’re told she believes this is “the last chance for decent, moderate politics”.

“If these moderate forces fail, something darker will follow…. if you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”

That’s a clear reference to the anti-asylum policies of Reform and the Conservatives, who are pledging to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and deport all illegal arrivals.

Both parties have responded by effectively claiming they don’t trust Labour to deliver on this, given they believe the government has lost control of our borders and overseen a surge in asylum claims.

That much Ms Mahmood herself has already acknowledged.

It’s unusual to hear a Conservative shadow minister like Chris Philp responding to a government announcement by claiming they will support the “sensible steps” the Home Office is making.

Unsurprisingly, he went on to belittle her ideas as “very small steps” combined with “gimmicks” – but the main thrust of his critique was that Labour lacks the authority to push these kinds of measures through parliament, given the likely opposition from their own left wingers.

It’s a fair point – but the lack of fundamental disagreement highlights the threat these plans pose to her opponents.

If the government looks like it might actually succeed in bringing down the numbers – and of course that’s a colossal if – Ms Mahmood will effectively have outflanked and neutralised much of the threat from both the Tories and Reform.

That’s why she’s so keen to mention her Danish inspiration – a centre-left government which managed to see off the threat from right-wing parties through its tough approach to migration, without having to leave the ECHR.

Read more:
Migrants shopping for life jackets: Inside the route to the Channel
Here’s how the Danish migration model works

The Home Office is planning further announcements on new safe and legal routes.

But refugee charities have described the new measures as harsh, claiming they will scapegoat genuine refugees, fail to integrate them into society, and fail to function as a deterrent either.

There will surely be an almighty internal row among Labour MPs about the principle of ripping up the post-war settlement for refugees.

For a government floundering after the political chaos of the last few weeks and months, Ms Mahmood is a voice of certainty and confidence.

At a moment of such intense backroom debate over the party’s future direction, it’s hard to avoid seeing her performance this weekend as a starting pitch for the leadership.

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Bitcoin briefly erases 2025 gains as crypto bleeds over weekend

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Bitcoin briefly erases 2025 gains as crypto bleeds over weekend

Bitcoin briefly lost all of its gains this year after the crypto markets bled over the weekend, despite the US government reopening on Thursday, which was expected to provide much-needed relief to the markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, down 25% from its all-time high in October. It started the year at $93,507.

It has since rebounded to around $94,209, CoinGecko data shows.

Investments, US Government, Donald Trump, Bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin’s price information, including the change in price since Jan. 1, 2025. Source: CoinGecko

This year was tipped to be a strong one for the crypto markets after US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20 and formed the most pro-crypto administration to date, which has followed through on most of his promises.

Regulatory momentum under the Trump administration has been accompanied by an explosion in corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption and more inflows into the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.