Strap in for a vicious and epochal fight for No 10 as Sunak and Starmer double down after by-election blows

Published

2 years ago

July 21, 2023

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Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.

Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.

But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.

Politics Live: Is Keir Starmer on course to be the next PM?

Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.

That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.

For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.

It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.

Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.

He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.

For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.

It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.

Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.

Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour

For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.

One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.

“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.

I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.

Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.

For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.

But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.

“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.

“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”

But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.

“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”

Sunak and Starmer will both double down

From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.

This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.

There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.

Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).

The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.

But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.

This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.

We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.

General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.

Politics

What are Sir Keir Starmer’s new immigration rules?

Published

1 hour ago

May 12, 2025

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What are Sir Keir Starmer's new immigration rules?

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to bring down migration numbers by tightening up the rules on those allowed to come to the UK.

The prime minister promised his new plan will reduce net migration – the difference between immigration and emigration – by the end of this parliament in 2029.

Details of the plans have been published in a white paper, a government document that outlines policy proposals before being introduced as legislation.

Politics latest: Starmer makes migration vow as he unveils crackdown

Sky News has combed through the white paper to bring you the details.

Language requirements

All visa routes will require people to have a certain level of English proficiency.

People coming with the main visa holders – dependents – will also have to have a basic understanding of English, which they currently do not.

The level of proficiency needed depends on the visa, with a skilled worker visa requiring at least upper intermediate level. Currently, it requires just an “intermediate” level.

To extend visas, people will have to show progression in their English.

Settled status

Currently, people have to live in the UK for five years before they can gain settled status.

Under the new plan, they will have to live in the UK for 10 years.

However, “high-contributing” individuals such as doctors and nurses could be allowed to apply for settled status after five years.

A new bereaved parent visa will be created so those in the UK who have a British or settled child that dies can get settled status immediately.

Settled status gives people the right to work and live in the UK for as long as they like, and provides them with the same rights as citizens, such as healthcare and welfare and the right to bring family members to live in the UK.

People with settled status can then choose to apply for British citizenship.

British citizenship

People can qualify sooner for citizenship by contributing to UK society and the economy, like settled status.

The Life in the UK test will be reformed.

Social care visa

This visa, which allowed care workers to come to the UK due to a shortage, will not exist anymore.

There will be a transition period until 2028 when visa extensions and switching to the visa for those already here will be allowed.

Skilled worker visa

People wanting to come to the UK on a skilled worker visa must now have at least an undergraduate university degree. The minimum was previously A-levels.

There will also be tighter restrictions on recruitment from overseas for jobs with “critical” skills shortages, as well as strategies to incentivise employers to increase training and participation rates in the UK.

Very highly skilled people, in areas the government identifies, will be given preferential access to come to the UK legally by increasing the number of people allowed to come through the “high talent” routes such as the global talent visa, the innovator founder visa and high potential individual route.

A limited pool of refugees will be allowed to apply for employment through the skilled worker route.

Study visas

People on graduate visas will only be allowed to remain in the UK for 18 months after they finish their studies.

Currently, students finishing degrees can stay for two years if they apply for the graduate visa, or those finishing PhDs can stay for three.

Institutions sponsoring international students will have their requirements strengthened, with those close to failing their sponsor duties placed on an action plan and limits imposed on the number of new students they can recruit.

Sponsors, who can cover tuition fees and living costs, include overseas governments, UK government scholarships, UK government departments, UK universities, overseas universities, companies and charities.

Humanitarian visa

The Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan humanitarian visa routes will remain.

However, the government will review the effectiveness of sponsorship arrangements for those schemes so businesses, universities and community groups can “sustainably” sponsor those refugees.

Domestic worker visa

To help prevent modern slavery, the government will reconsider this visa, which currently allows foreign national domestic workers to visit the UK with their employer for up to six months.

Businesses

Companies wanting to bring people from abroad to work for them in the UK will have to invest in the UK first.

To prevent exploitation of low-skilled workers on temporary visas already in the UK, the government will look at making it easier for workers to move between licensed sponsors for the duration of their visa.

The right to family life

A growing number of asylum seekers have used the “right to family life” – Article 8 of the Human Rights Act – to stop their deportation.

Legislation will be introduced to “make clear it is the government and parliament that decides who should have the right to remain in the UK”.

It will set out how Article 8 should be applied in different immigration routes so “fewer cases are treated as ‘exceptional'”.

Foreign national offenders

The Home Office will be given powers to more easily take enforcement and removal action, and revoke visas in a much wider range of crimes where people did not serve jail time in other countries.

Deportation thresholds will be reviewed to take into account more than just the length of their sentence, with violence against women and girls taken more seriously.

Enforcement

Sir Keir said the immigration rules – at the border and in the system – will be more strongly enforced than before “because fair rules must be followed”.

People who claim asylum, particularly after arriving in the UK, where conditions in their home country have not materially changed, will face tighter controls, restrictions and requirements where there is evidence of abuse of the system.

Other governments will be made to play their part to stop their nationals coming to the UK, or from being returned.

Sponsors of migrant workers or students abusing the system will have financial penalties or sanctions placed on them, and they will be given more support to ensure compliance.

People on short-term visas who commit an offence will be deported “swiftly”.

Scientific and tech methods will be explored to ensure adults coming to the UK are not wrongly identified as children.

eVisas, which have now replaced physical documents, will help tackle illegal working and support raids on those overstaying their visas or on the wrong visa.

Major banks are legally obligated to refuse current accounts to individuals suspected of being in the UK illegally and to notify the Home Office. This will be extended to other financial institutions.

Politics

Nigel Farage says he would allow essential migration but numbers would be capped

Published

4 hours ago

May 12, 2025

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Nigel Farage says he would allow essential migration but numbers would be capped

Nigel Farage has told Sky News he would allow some essential migration in areas with skill shortages but that numbers would be capped.

The Reform UK leader said he would announce the cap “in four years’ time” after he was pressed repeatedly by Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates about his manifesto pledge to freeze “non-essential” immigration.

Politics latest: PM accused of ‘shameful’ language in migration crackdown

It was put to Mr Farage that despite his criticism of the government’s migration crackdown, allowing essential migration in his own plans is quite a big caveat given the UK’s skills shortages.

However the Clacton MP said he would allow people to plug the gaps on “time dependent work permits” rather than on longer-term visas.

He said: “Let’s take engineering, for argument’s sake. We don’t train enough engineers, we just don’t. It’s crazy.

“We’ve been pushing young people to doing social sciences degrees or whatever it is.

“So you’re an engineering company, you need somebody to come in on skills. If they come in, on a time dependent work permit, if all the right health assurances and levies have been paid and if at the end of that period of time, you leave or you’re forced to leave, then it works.”

Reform’s manifesto, which they call a “contract”, says that “essential skills, mainly around healthcare, must be the only exception” to migration.

Pressed on how wide his exemption would be, Mr Farage said he hopes enough nurses and doctors will be trained “not to need anybody from overseas within the space of a few years”.

He said that work permits should be separate to immigration, adding: “If you get a job for an American TV station and you stay 48 hours longer than your work permit, they will smash your front door down, put you in handcuffs and deport you.

“We allow all of these routes, whether it’s coming into work, whether it’s coming as a student, we have allowed all of these to become routes for long-term migration.”

Asked if he would put a cap on his essential skills exemption, he said: “We will. I can’t tell you the numbers right now, I don’t have all the figures. What I can tell you is anyone that comes in will not be allowed to stay long-term. That’s the difference.”

Pressed if that was a commitment to a cap under a Reform UK government, he suggested he would set out further detail ahead of the next election, telling Coates: “Ask me in four years’ time, all right?”

Mr Farage was speaking after the government published an immigration white paper which pledged to ban overseas care workers as part of a package of measures to bring down net migration.

The former Brexit Party leader claimed the proposals were a “knee jerk reaction” to his party’s success at the local elections and accused the prime minister of not having the vigour to “follow them through”.

However he said he supports the “principle” of banning foreign care workers and conceded he might back some of the measures if they are put to a vote in parliament.

He said: “If it was stuff that did actually bind the government, there might be amendments on this that you would support. But I’m not convinced.”

Politics

Will Bitcoin hodlers be the reason more countries adopt wealth taxes?

Published

4 hours ago

May 12, 2025

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Will Bitcoin hodlers be the reason more countries adopt wealth taxes?

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly

Is there a catch for Bitcoin hodlers, with the asset’s price up over 600,000% since the beginning of 2013?

Perhaps — if governments keep waking up to Bitcoin’s value, the whole “you only pay tax when you sell” mantra could soon be a thing of the past.

What if a wealth tax is the answer for revenue-hungry tax agencies with no time to lose? It’s a yearly tax on a person’s total net worth — cash, investments, property and other assets — minus any debts, applied whether or not those assets are sold or generating income. The idea is to boost public revenue and curb inequality, mainly by taxing the ultra-rich. A wealth tax takes a clip off what you own, not what you earn.

Countries such as Belgium, Norway and Switzerland have had wealth taxes baked into their tax systems for ages, yet some of the world’s biggest economies — like the US, Australia and France — have largely steered clear.

That might be changing. More governments are eyeing wealth taxes for crypto. In December 2024, French Senator Sylvie Vermeillet took it a step further, suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) be labeled “unproductive,” which would mean taxing its gains every year — whether or not it’s ever sold.

Yep, every asset holder’s favorite word is unrealized capital gains tax. It would be naive to assume other countries are not thinking about the same idea.

With Bitcoin’s significant gains and industry executives such as ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood eyeing a $1.5-million price tag by 2030, I’d bet a magic 8-ball would say, “Signs point to yes.”

The growing global interest in wealth tax

It might seem far-fetched, but it is hard to ignore the gains. The average long-term Bitcoin holder is already sitting on significant profits.

The incentive is obvious. Switzerland’s wealth tax goes up to 1% of a portfolio’s value, and governments know there is plenty to collect.

Countries catch on — sooner or later. Consider how capital gains tax became the norm.

The US introduced capital gains tax in 1913, the UK jumped on board 52 years later in 1965, and Australia followed in 1985.

Governments likely considering the wealth tax

Governments are likely entertaining the idea — whether they admit it or not. If any country seriously considers it, Germany could be a prime candidate, even though it scrapped its wealth tax back in 1997.

Recent: Ukraine floats 23% tax on some crypto income, exemptions for stablecoins

In July 2024, offloading 50,000 seized BTC at $58,000 might have seemed like a smart move for the German government, but when Bitcoin hit $100,000 just months later in December, it became clear they left a fortune on the table.

In retrospect, a costly mistake…

Will this be remembered as a blunder on par with Gordon Brown selling half of the UK’s gold reserves at $275 an ounce?

Imposing such a rule on the wealthy comes with obvious risks.

To understand the real effect of taxation on a country, just follow the money — specifically, where millionaires are moving. Recent data shows that high-net-worth individuals are leaving countries like the United Kingdom in droves, heading for tax-friendly havens like Dubai.

The potential repercussions of a wealth tax

Will nations risk losing these individuals to tap into unrealized gains on Bitcoin and other assets?

Bitcoin is volatile and full of unknowns. While some events could lead to massive losses, governments may still push forward with policies that ultimately drive away millionaires, only to realize the trade-off wasn’t worth it.

Conversely, US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve — a clear nod to the hodl mentality. No doubt, this has other nations considering a similar move.

If nations are embracing the hodl mindset, could that mean wealth taxes are off the table in those countries? Only time will tell.

One thing is sure: Bitcoin hodlers have amassed enough wealth to put themselves on the radar of tax authorities. Whether this sparks fundamental policy changes or just political grandstanding, the crypto community won’t sit back quietly.

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.