Strap in for a vicious and epochal fight for No 10 as Sunak and Starmer double down after by-election blows
Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.
Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.
But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.
Politics Live: Is Keir Starmer on course to be the next PM?
Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.
That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.
For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.
It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.
Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.
He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.
Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.
For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.
It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.
Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.
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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics
Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour
For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.
One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.
“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.
I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.
Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.
For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.
But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.
“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.
“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”
But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.
“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”
Labour secured a historic victory in Selby and Ainsty
Sunak and Starmer will both double down
From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.
This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.
There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.
Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).
The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.
But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.
This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.
We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.
General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.
The BBC has said it regrets not pulling the live stream of Bob Vylan’s “unacceptable” Glastonbury set – as Ofcom said the broadcaster has “questions to answer”.
The corporation has faced mounting criticism over airing the performance on Glastonbury‘s West Holts Stage, during which the rap-punk duo’s frontman Bobby Vylan led chants of: “Free, free Palestine” and: “Death, death to the IDF (Israel Defence Forces)”.
Sir Keir Starmer condemned the remarks as “appalling hate speech”, while festival organiser Emily Eavis said they “crossed a line” – and media watchdog Ofcom has now also released a statement raising concerns.
This morning, a spokesperson for the prime minister did not directly answer when asked if he still had confidence in BBC director-general Tim Davie.
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What is the Glastonbury controversy?
Footage from Bob Vylan’s set on Saturday showed some of the crowd joining in, as the group performed in front of a screen that said Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to “genocide”.
Afterwards, the BBC said there had been a warning on screen about potential “strong and discriminatory language”, but described the comments as “deeply offensive”.
On Monday, a spokesperson released an updated statement, saying the comments were antisemitic and the performance should have been taken off air.
“The BBC respects freedom of expression but stands firmly against incitement to violence,” the statement said. “The antisemitic sentiments expressed by Bob Vylan were utterly unacceptable and have no place on our airwaves. We welcome Glastonbury’s condemnation of the performance.”
Pic: PA
A judgement to issue a warning on screen while streaming online was in line with editorial guidelines, the spokesperson added, and the performance has not been made available to view on demand.
“The team were dealing with a live situation but with hindsight we should have pulled the stream during the performance. We regret this did not happen.
“In light of this weekend, we will look at our guidance around live events so we can be sure teams are clear on when it is acceptable to keep output on air.”
Read more:
Who are Bob Vylan?
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An Ofcom spokesperson said: “We are very concerned about the live stream of this performance, and the BBC clearly has questions to answer.
“We have been speaking to the BBC over the weekend and we are obtaining further information as a matter of urgency, including what procedures were in place to ensure compliance with its own editorial guidelines.”
In a statement shared on Instagram on Sunday, Bobby Vylan said: “Teaching our children to speak up for the change they want and need is the only way that we make this world a better place.
“As we grow older and our fire starts to possibly dim under the suffocation of adult life and all its responsibilities, it is incredibly important that we encourage and inspire future generations to pick up the torch that was passed to us.”
The latest developments follows severe condemnation from the prime minister, who said there was “no excuse for this kind of appalling hate speech”.
Mo Chara of Kneecap at Glastonbury. Pic: Reuters
Sir Keir also referenced a previous statement that Belfast rap group Kneecap, who were on stage after Bob Vylan, should have been removed from the line-up after one member was charged with a terrorism offence.
“I said that Kneecap should not be given a platform and that goes for any other performers making threats or inciting violence,” he said.
Ms Eavis, whose father Michael co-founded the festival, said in a statement that Bob Vylan had “very much crossed a line”.
She added: “Their chants very much crossed a line and we are urgently reminding everyone involved in the production of the festival that there is no place at Glastonbury for antisemitism, hate speech or incitement to violence.”
The Israeli embassy posted on X in the hours after the set, saying it was “deeply disturbed by the inflammatory and hateful rhetoric”.
It said the slogan used “advocates for the dismantling of the State of Israel”.
In a separate post on X on Sunday, Israel’s foreign ministry published graphic footage following the attack by Hamas on the Nova festival in Israel on 7 October 2023, and the Campaign Against Antisemitism (CAA) said it would be formally complaining to the BBC over its “outrageous decision” to broadcast the performance.
Speaking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on behalf of the government, Health Secretary Wes Streeting described the chant as “appalling”, especially at a music festival – “when there were Israelis at a similar music festival who were kidnapped, murdered, raped, and in some cases still held captive”.
He added that while “there’s no justification for inciting violence against Israelis… the way in which Israel’s conducting this war has made it extremely difficult for Israel’s allies around the world to stand by and justify”.
Lucy McMullin, who was in the crowd for Bob Vylan, told Sky News: “When there’s children and civilians being murdered and starved, then I think it’s important that people are speaking out on these issues.
“However, inciting more death and violence is not the way to do it.”
Police have said they are reviewing footage of both the Bob Vylan and Kneecap sets to assess whether any criminal offences were committed.
Speaking to Sky News earlier today, women and equalities minister Baroness Jacqui Smith said the comments “clearly” over-stepped the mark.
“I’m surprised that the BBC carried on broadcasting them live when it was obvious what was happening.”
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