Oil markets will face ‘serious problems’ as demand from China and India ramps up, IEF secretary general says
British oil and gasoline company BP (British Petroleum) signage is being pictured in Warsaw, Poland, on July 29, 2024.
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Five months ago, British energy major BP was firmly in the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate. Now, not so much.
Shares of the London-listed oil giant have climbed more than 32% since early April, outperforming many of its U.S. and European rivals.
The improving sentiment can be attributed to a range of factors, including BP’s fundamental strategic reset, a leadership shake-up, progress on its cost-cutting program and a string of recent oil discoveries.
It marks a stark contrast to earlier in the year, when BP found itself to be the subject of intense takeover speculation, with British rival Shell, UAE oil giant ADNOC and U.S. majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron all among the names touted as possible suitors.
BP CEO Murray Auchincloss insisted the company was focused on growth when asked about any approaches, saying last month: “That’s what is going to drive the share price up for shareholders.”
Shell, for its part, swiftly denied reports in late June that early-stage talks were taking place to acquire BP. The company said at the time that it had “no intention” of making a blockbuster offer for its embattled rival.
Allen Good, equity analyst at Morningstar, said he was unsure of the merit of the takeover speculation from the outset, even while the company was in turmoil and trading at a steep discount to its peers.
“Shares have since done better,” Good told CNBC. “And I think probably the most recent catalyst was the selection of the new chair, who is coming from CRH and has previous experience with meaningful turnarounds and being successful.”
Shares of BP since April 11.
Following a green strategy U-turn earlier in the year, BP announced in July the appointment of Albert Manifold as its new chairman. The former boss of building materials producer CRH has since joined the firm’s board and will formally become chair from Oct. 1.
A BP spokesperson was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
Oil discoveries and Elliott’s arrival
BP’s share price gain has coincided with some notable rating and price target upgrades. Berenberg, for instance, recently upgraded BP to buy from hold and raised its price target to £5.00 ($6.73), from £3.85, citing the firm’s significantly stronger second-quarter results.
In early August, BP reported underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $2.35 billion for the three months through June — comfortably beating analyst expectations of $1.81 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” shortly after these results, BP’s Auchincloss highlighted the growth potential of the company’s recent oil and gas discoveries, adding that he was “very optimistic” about the discovery in the Bumerangue block in Brazil’s Santos Basin, just over 400 kilometers (248.5 miles) from Rio de Janeiro.
The discovery marked the firm’s 10th since the start of the year and is regarded as a potentially significant boost as BP continues to double down on hydrocarbons.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said BP’s resilience in the face of skepticism “is interesting and can be a telling sign,” particularly as the share price rise comes despite what he described as “relentlessly negative commentary” on both the company and the oil price.
“Elliott’s arrival on the share register remains a factor, too, as the activist presses for disposals, improved cash flow, deleveraging and improved cash returns to shareholders, a clarion call to which BP appears to be listening,” Mould told CNBC by email.
Activist investor Elliott went public with a stake of more than 5% in BP in late April, bolstering expectations that its involvement could pressure the company to shift back toward its core oil and gas businesses.
A fuel pump is seen connected to a car at a gas station in Krakow, Poland on June 19, 2025.
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Given Shell’s reported interest in a takeover appears to have cooled, Mould said BP’s best defense to any potential suitors would be a higher share price and an improved valuation.
“Valuation, or the price paid, is the ultimate arbiter of investment return and the more they have to stump up, the less likely predators are to appear, as higher valuations limit upside potential and increase downside risks should anything unexpected go wrong,” Mould said.
Debt burden
Looking ahead, energy analysts singled out BP’s relatively high debt burden as a potential cause for concern, however.
BP’s net debt came in at $26.04 billion at the end of the second quarter, down from nearly $27 billion in the first three months of the year.
“If you get a situation where oil prices start falling, then they are certainly the most exposed in the peer group,” Morningstar’s Good said. “So, that would be something that could derail this momentum.”
Government researchers in the US and abroad believe we could help decarbonize and electrify the transportation sector with hardy, fast-growing plants that collect the metals needed to manufacture electric vehicle batteries in their roots, then harvest those metals later with a process that’s cleaner and cheaper than traditional mineral mining.
Nickel is just one example of a critical element in the production of modern EV batteries, but mining it is messy, expensive, and destructive. It used to be, anyway – a new French biotech startup says it has a better idea: extracting nickel from daisies.
Getting nickel and other useful metals from plants is made possible through a process called phytomining. But, as you’ve probably guessed, everyday plants don’t collect enough of these metals to make the extraction commercially viable. That’s where a French biotech startup called “Genomines” comes in.
Genomine’s relies on biologically engineered plants it calls “hyperaccumulators.” These plants naturally pull metals and minerals out from the soil they’re planted in through their roots, and store it in their stems and leaves, where Genomine can harvest it later.
“It’s important because we need a lot of metal, especially for the energy transition in batteries in electric vehicles,” Fabien Koutchekian, co-founder and CEO of Genomines, told Fast Company. “Not only in batteries, but [nickel is] widely used in stainless steel as part of infrastructure. The problem is that with current traditional mining methods, we will not be able to produce enough.”
Genomines predicts that hitting the 2040 goals set out by the Paris Agreement to transition all the world’s cars to electric vehicles will require six (6) times today’s global metal output and a significant number of new, potentially destructive mining operations.
That’s bad.
More farms, fewer mines
Not only are mining operations generally destructive, they often accompany (if not cause) a number of human rights issues as they get to work. “Indigenous Peoples and rural communities are paying a heavy price for the world’s scramble for energy transition minerals,” explains Veronica Cabe, Chair of Amnesty International, Philippines. “Not only did these communities undergo seriously flawed consultation processes – blighted by misrepresentations and a lack of information – they are now being forced to endure the negative impacts of these mining operations on their health, livelihoods and access to clean water.”
Genomines thinks its high-performance custom daisies could avoid this sort of environmental and cultural harm. They’ve convinced investors of that, too, to the tune of more than $45 million from a group that includes Hyundai and Jaguar and Land Rover parent company Tata.
“Our mission is to harness plant biotechnology to extract resources essential for clean energy technology via scalable processes that preserve biodiversity, soil health and human well-being,” explains Koutchekian. “Our vision is to create an entirely new industry of plant-based metals. Genomines unlocks a scalable new resource base – we can fundamentally rebalance global mineral supply chains for decades to come.”
Genomines says its methods are not only scalable, but offer a number of additional benefits over conventional mineral mining:
- Transformation of non-productive land into economic assets, operating in areas that are too low-grade to mine traditionally, but too metal rich to farm
- Quickly deployable farms, operationalizing an asset in 1-2 years versus 12-17 years for traditional nickel mines
- Cleaner more traceable extraction, while maintaining 40-50% lower equipment and operational costs as a result of biomass farming
- Scalable modularly, deploying smaller, capital-efficient assets at profitable rates, rather than relying on the large, capex-intensive mines of traditional industry
- Superior sustainability, the hyperaccumulator plants capture carbon as they grow, making the entire process not just carbon neutral, but potentially carbon negative
“Genomines’ technology leverages underutilized assets by extracting nickel from low-concentration soils that don’t compete with traditional agriculture. Coupled with a structural cost advantage, Genomines is well equipped to fundamentally change the way we extract critical metals, and do it in a significantly more sustainable manner,” says Alex Hoffmann, General Partner at VC firm Forbion and Genomines investor. “We are excited to be part of the journey and support the team to achieve its ambitious targets.”
Genomines estimates that about 30 to 40 million hectares of land across the globe contain enough nickel for their phytomining processes to prove enough nickel for the world’s EV needs, at 7-14 times the amount currently being mined. While it’s got a long way to go, the company currently employs 23 full time staff that are making real progress at their South African site, with many more soon to come.
That’s good.
SOURCES: Genomines; via Business Insider, Good Good Good, SingularityHub.
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Peak Energy just switched on a 3.5 MWh sodium-ion battery, the largest energy storage project developed in the US. The system is the first of its kind at grid scale, and may eventually be a game-changer for delivering affordable energy in the US.
Sodium-ion batteries work well in hot or cold weather without auxiliary cooling systems. That makes them cheaper and easier to maintain, especially for utility-scale projects. They also use more abundant materials. The US holds the world’s largest soda ash reserves, a key sodium-ion ingredient, and the whole raw material supply chain can be sourced domestically or from allied countries.
The Burlingame, California-based energy storage company’s technology is designed to slash lifetime project costs, which could make a real difference as electric bills keep rising nationwide. With US household energy costs projected to climb as much as 18% in the next few years, utilities are looking for cheaper ways to meet demand. Peak Energy’s design eliminates active cooling, reduces moving parts, and cuts battery degradation by 33% over a 20-year lifespan — saving more than $100 million over a project’s lifetime.
“Storage is critical to solving America’s dual energy crises of affordability and availability,” said Landon Mossburg, Peak Energy’s CEO and cofounder. “With the lowest operating cost of any storage system in the market today, Peak Energy is proud to have developed a ready-to-deploy answer to energy affordability.”
Peak Energy’s sodium-ion phosphate pyrophosphate (NFPP) battery storage system was unveiled in July and is now running at the Solar Technology Acceleration Center (SolarTac) in Watkins, Colorado. It’s being operated in partnership with nine utilities and independent power producers, which makes it the US’s largest energy storage project. Peak Energy will gather real-world data on the battery’s performance and share it across participating utilities. Commercial-scale projects are expected to launch in 2027.
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FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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