Ukraine’s counteroffensive is entering its seventh week and even the most ardent optimists admit that it is progressing slower than anticipated and Ukrainian forces have – as yet – failed to break through the established layered Russian defences.
But, Russia is also facing significant challenges.
Vladimir Putin is evidently struggling to re-establish command and control of Russia’s military forces following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ill-fated rebellion.
Is the current turmoil in Russian senior military leadership a sideshow to the brutal frontline battles, or is Mr Putin’s house of cards on the brink of collapse?
Credible warfighting capability is a blend of core ingredients.
Equipment is important, as is training, but the ability to “get people to fight” – the moral component of fighting power – is widely believed to be the most important.
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The moral component is focused on morale, integrity, values, and legitimacy to ensure soldiers demonstrate physical and moral courage in the “face of mortal peril”.
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2:23
Prigozhin resurfaces in grainy video
Leadership – and followership – are central to the development of the moral component, and the West invests considerable time and resources across all ranks of its services to educate, nurture and mature these battle-winning skills.
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Trust and confidence in military leaders, whether at a relatively junior rank or the most senior, enables commanders to articulate their intent, and empower those below to use their initiative, courage, and ultimately sacrifice, to achieve those aims.
But this is not the Russian modus-operandi.
In the Russian military, there is no empowerment – senior officers direct, and soldiers do.
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Infantry are seen as disposable – pawns in a brutal battle – and any latitude to “interpret” orders would provide potential justification for anarchy, which is a constant fear for the Russian military hierarchy. This creates animosity and contempt for command.
And following Prigozhin’s abortive rebellion, Mr Putin will not know which of his commanders he can trust, and which he should fear.
Mr Putin might have been expected to purge his senior military commanders to eliminate any enduring threat and serve as a clear lesson to those selected to replace them. However, his priority is to retain his grip on power, and he values loyalty over competence.
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0:36
Russia targets Odesa with air raid
Replacing General Valery Gerasimov and Defence Secretary Sergei Shoigu might improve Russia’s operational effectiveness but would risk enemies closing in on Mr Putin’s seat of power.
Meanwhile, Mr Putin is working through his senior military commanders to flush out those who might have been complicit in the rebellion; General Sergey Surovikin (head of Russian aerospace forces) had a close relationship with Prigozhin, and it is no coincidence that he has not been seen since. One can only imagine his fate.
But even loyal generals are disposable, particularly if they seek to speak “truth to power”.
Major General Ivan Popov, who oversaw forces fighting in southern Ukraine, has apparently been relieved of his duties after speaking out about the problems faced by his troops.
Image: Major General Ivan Popov has been relieved of his duties. Pic: Russian Defence Ministry/Reuters
Gen Popov was widely known for doing his best to avoid unnecessary losses – unlike many other commanders who were eager to sacrifice their soldiers to report successes.
Strong and decisive leadership is required if Russian success in Ukraine is to be achieved. Instead, a culture of suspicion and fear permeates all levels of the military – even into the Kremlin – as the ramifications of Prigozhin’s abortive rebellion continue to reverberate.
Russia’s “crisis of command” might not directly impact Russia’s immediate frontline defences, as soldiers there have no choice but to fight or be shot as deserters by their colleagues.
However, if Ukraine does manage to break through the Russian defensive line and the floodgates open, leadership shortcomings will be exposed, and Russian courage, bravery and initiative will be in very short supply.
But first, Ukraine needs a breakthrough. And soon!
European leaders who make up the ‘coalition of the willing’ are set to hold a conference call on Sunday – ahead of crunch talks between Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy next week.
The coalition – co-chaired by Sir Keir Starmer, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz – has the aim of bringing countries together to protect a peace deal in Ukraine.
Top of the agenda at Sunday’s meeting will be securing a concrete commitment from Mr Trump on a security guarantee that would act as a powerful backstop in any Russia-Ukraine peacekeeping arrangement.
European leaders seemed buoyed by the US president’s most recent hints on the subject, in the knowledge that US military might is likely to deter Vladimir Putin from advancing in the future.
They will also discuss how to bring Mr Zelenskyy into talks after Mr Trump and Mr Putin’s Alaska meeting saw him left out in the cold.
Image: The Russian and US presidents met in Alaska on Friday. Pic: AP
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Pc: Reuters
In coordinated statements, European leaders said Mr Zelenskyy must play a greater role in future talks, and that peace cannot be achieved without him.
The hard bit will be to persuade the unpredictable US administration to change its approach, something that has proved almost impossible in the past.
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5:55
Trump and Putin’s body language analysed
When Mr Trump re-entered the White House and made it clear the US would no longer provide a blank cheque to protect peace in Europe, others decided they had to step up, and the ‘coalition of the willing’ was thrown together in March.
Since then, information about the allied peacekeeping effort has been patchy, but we know it includes over 30 countries, which have been asked to pledge whatever military support they can, including troops.
No deal has been reached to end the war in Ukraine – but Donald Trump has said there are “many points” he and Vladimir Putin agreed on during their highly anticipated summit.
Following the meeting in Alaska, which lasted more than two-and-a-half hours, the two leaders gave a short media conference giving little detail about what had been discussed, and without taking questions.
Mr Trump described the meeting as “very productive” and said there were “many points that we agreed on… I would say a couple of big ones”.
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2:20
Key moments from Trump-Putin news conference
But there are a few left, he added. “Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there…
“We haven’t quite got there, we’ve made some headway. There’s no deal until there’s a deal.”
Mr Putin described the negotiations as “thorough and constructive” and said Russiawas “seriously interested in putting an end” to the war in Ukraine. He also warned Europe not to “torpedo nascent progress”.
Image: Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
After much build-up to the summit – with the US president threatening “severe” consequences for Russia should it not go well – it was ultimately not clear whether the talks had produced meaningful steps towards a ceasefire in what has been the deadliest conflict in Europe in 80 years.
Mr Trump said he intended to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, who were excluded from the discussions, to brief them.
Despite not reaching any major breakthrough, the US leader ended his remarks with a thank you, and said he would probably see Mr Putin again “very soon”.
When the Russian president suggested that “next time” would be Moscow, he responded by saying he might face criticism, but “I could see it possibly happening”.
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2:10
Trump applauds Putin and shares ride in ‘The Beast’
The red carpet treatment
The news conference came after a grand arrival at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, where the US president stepped down from Air Force One and later greeted his Russian counterpart with a handshake and smiles on a red carpet.
Mr Putin even travelled alongside Mr Trump in the presidential limousine, nicknamed “The Beast”.
It was the kind of reception typically reserved for close US allies, belying the bloodshed and the suffering in the war.
Before the talks, the two presidents ignored frantically-shouted questions from journalists – and Mr Putin appeared to frown when asked by one reporter if he would stop “killing civilians” in Ukraine, putting his hand to his ear as though to indicate he could not hear.
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3:22
‘Fury, anger and disgust’ in Ukraine
Our US correspondent Martha Kelner, on the ground in Alaska, said he was shouting “let’s go” – apparently in reference to getting the reporters out of the room.
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3:02
What we learned from Trump-Putin news conference
A ’10/10′ meeting
During his first day back in the White House in January, Mr Trump had pledged confidently to bring about an end to the war in Ukraine.
But seven months later, after infamously berating Mr Zelenskyy during a meeting at the Oval Office in February, and then stanching the flow of some US military assistance to Kyiv, he still does not appear to have brought a pause to the conflict.
In an interview with Fox News before leaving Alaska, Mr Trump described the meeting with Mr Putin as “warm” and gave it a “10/10”, but declined to give details about what they discussed.
He also insisted that the onus going forward could be on Mr Zelenskyy “to get it done”, but said there would also be some involvement from European nations.
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7:06
Trump’s body language was ‘disappointed’
What happens next?
Mr Trump is expected to speak to Mr Zelenskyy, Sir Keir Starmer and European leaders about the talks.
A meeting of ambassadors from European countries has been scheduled for 8.30am UK time, EU presidency sources have told Sky News.
European heads of state and Mr Trump are also likely to have a virtual meeting later in the day.
Despite the US president’s efforts to bring about a ceasefire, Russian attacks on Ukraine have only intensified in the past few months.
A warm handshake, big smiles, and a red carpet – this was the welcome for Vladimir Putin as he touched down on US soil for critical negotiations on the war in Ukraine.
There had been much build-up to the summit in Anchorage, Alaska,not least from Donald Trump himself – with the US president having threatened “severe” consequences for Russiashould it not go well.
Image: Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
But more than two-and-a-half hours of talks resulted in just a brief news conference with little detail given away – and ultimately, no talk of a ceasefire and no deal on Ukrainereached yet.
Here is what was expected from the meeting – based on information from the White House, Mr Trump and the Kremlin beforehand – and what happened on the night.
One-on-one turned into three-on-three
Image: Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio also attended the talks. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
It was thought this would be a one-on-one meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Putin.
Instead, the US president was joined by US secretary of state Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff, while the Russian leader was supported by his foreign affairs advisor Yuri Ushakov and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
The change seemed to indicate the White House was perhaps taking a more guarded approach than during a 2018 meeting in Helsinki, where Mr Trump and Mr Putin met privately with interpreters. The US leader then shocked the world by siding with the Russian leader over US intelligence officials on whether Russia meddled in the 2016 presidential campaign.
Rolling out the red carpet
Image: Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
Mr Putin was given the kind of reception typically reserved for close US allies, belying the bloodshed and the suffering in the war he started.
The two men greeted each other with a handshake and a smiling Mr Trump even applauded the Russian president as he approached him on the red carpet.
Our international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn, in Kyiv, gauged the Ukrainian reaction to the arrival – and said people were furious at the welcome extended by the Trump team.
Images of US soldiers on their knees, unfurling the red carpet at the steps of the Russian leader’s plane, went viral, he said, with social media “lit up with fury, anger, and disgust”.
He added: “There are different ways of welcoming a world leader to this type of event, and Trump has gone all out to give a huge welcome to Putin, which is sticking in the craw of Ukrainians.”
Any questions?
Image: Pic: Reuters/ Kevin Lamarque
Plenty. But no one was really given a chance to ask.
Ahead of the talks, cameras were allowed inside for just a minute – and while this was enough time for a few journalists to shout some questions, these were ignored by the two leaders.
“President Putin, will you stop killing civilians?” one shouted. In response, Mr Putin put his hand up to his ear as if he could not hear.
In their brief media conference after the talks, Mr Putin spoke for almost nine minutes, while Trump took just three-and-a-half to say what he wanted to say.
The two men then did not stay to answer questions from reporters.
Before the event, the Kremlin said it could last between six and seven hours, but the whole visit lasted about four-and-a-half hours.
‘Severe consequences’
Image: Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
Ever since his inauguration in January, Mr Trump had been threatening serious consequences for Russia should a deal on Ukraine not be reached soon. Just two days after the ceremony, he took to social media to declare there could be “high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions” and called for an end to the “ridiculous” war.
In February, he held what he described as a “productive” call with the Russian leader, and about two weeks later he infamously berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a visit to the Oval Office – this one taking place in front of the world’s media.
In July, he started to set deadlines for an end to the war – first giving Mr Putin 50 days and later reducing this to “10 or 12 days”, before announcing the summit last week.
Yesterday, Mr Trump insisted his Russian counterpart was “not going to mess around with me”.
However, while both men insisted the talks were “productive”, it is not clear what agreements have been reached, and whether Ukraine is any closer to finding peace. The word ceasefire was not mentioned by either leader. Instead, they praised each other, with Mr Trump describing Mr Putin’s remarks as “very profound” – and there was no mention of sanctions.
A meeting with Mr Zelenskyy?
Image: Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy met at the White House in February. Pic: Reuters/ Brian Snyder
It was expected that after the talks, Mr Trump could set the table for the next meeting with the Ukrainian president.
While he said he would call Mr Zelenskyy, he made no public commitment to a meeting during the media conference.
In an interview with Fox News after the summit, he said Russia and Ukraine would set a date to discuss next steps and a potential ceasefire deal, but did not provide further details on specifics or timings.
“They’re going to set up a meeting now, between President Zelenskyy and President Putin and myself, I guess,” Mr Trump said. He also said that European nations “have to get involved a little bit” but it is “really up to President Zelenskyy to get it done”.
Putin brought his own limo – but travelled in The Beast instead
Image: A US Secret Service agent stands next to ‘The Beast’. Pic: AP/ Luis M Alvarez
After shaking hands on the red carpet, the two leaders made their way towards their waiting vehicles.
But despite Mr Putin arriving with his “Aurus” limousine, and it being spotted on the tarmac near the planes, he got into the American presidential limousine, known as “The Beast”, to travel to the meeting location.
The Russian president was seen with a wide smile on his face, while Mr Trump appeared to be waving to the crowds.