Adam Boulton: After Labour and Lib Dems take by-election seats from Conservatives, what happens next?
What now?
This week’s trio of parliamentary by-elections are bound to be the biggest sampling of voter opinion in an election for Westminster this side of the next general election.
That election is most likely more than a year away. November 2024 is currently the favoured date, although the prime minister could run all the way into the buffers in late January 2025.
In truth in all three constituencies there was a significant swing in share of the votes away from the Conservatives – a 21% drop in support on average – which would have swept them out of power if mirrored across the nation.
As the polling analyst Professor Sir John Curtice put it “the results confirmed the depth of the electoral hole in which the [Conservative] party now finds itself”.
Nonetheless the results were not the total wipe-out which had been widely predicted.
Conservatives are trying to take heart from the mixed headline score of 2-1 rather than 3-0. There was something for everyone.
Each party can claim a success. The Tories held Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge. That was all Rishi Sunak talked about on his quick victory dash to a local cafe when he claimed his defeat at that general election is “not a done deal”.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats each captured a seat won by the Tories under Boris Johnson at 2019 General Election.
The Lib Dem leader popped up in Somerton and Frome with a typically naff victory stunt as he fired a cardboard circus cannon emblazoned with “Get These Clowns out of No 10”.
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Lib Dems: ‘Get these clowns out of No 10!’
Analysis:
Starmer could be even more cautious after defeat
Strap in for a vicious and bloody fight for No 10
Sir Keir Starmer headed to Selby and Ainsty to say “well done Keir” to his namesake, 25-year-old Keir Mather, the Labour victor who is now the youngest MP.
Starmer re-iterated there must be no complacency while simultaneously committing “to deliver” in the next Labour government.
With the help of the performance notes from voters in suburban London, North Yorkshire and Somerset, each party leadership will now review its route map to what it hopes will be success at the general election.
The Conservative tactics are clear. The small boat crossings have not yet stopped, NHS waiting lists are still growing and the prime minister will struggle to deliver on his economic pledges.
Rather than campaign on his record, Rishi Sunak is targeting the notional next Labour government which he says would be worse.
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Sunak optimistic despite defeats
This means totting up spending ideas which Labour has long abandoned, such as the £28bn Green New Deal and pointing to problems in public services “where Labour is in power” such as in Wales and London, without pointing out that his government still ultimately holds their purse strings.
In Ruislip the Labour Mayor of London’s scheduled extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) was a gift to the Tories, even if it resulted from politically charged interplay with central government.
Steve Tuckwell, the successful Conservative candidate, ran on the single issue of this potential £12.50 daily charge for those with older vehicles and did not bother to mention the prime minister in his victory speech.
There may have been other local factors. YouGov founder Peter Kellner points out that that Conservatives have done better in this part of the capital which “seems to be linked to Labour’s support slipping among voters with Indian heritage”.
Against the worldwide crescendo of extreme weather incidents Lord Debden, the Conservative grandee and recent chairman of the UK’s Climate Change Committee and Lord Stern, the government’s former climate change advisor, have both bemoaned Sunak’s apparent lack of interest in net zero measures.
The Tories’ narrow scrape in Ruislip, surviving by just 495 votes, is unlikely to change the prime minister’s mind. He may be more attracted to the siren call of Boris Johnson loyalist Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg that “high cost green policies are not popular”.
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‘ULEZ is why we lost in Uxbridge’
Labour never took victory in Ruislip for granted and their campaign was troubled, even without some lingering affection for Boris Johnson, their big character former MP.
Their candidate attacked the mayor’s ULEZ scheme. Extra party managers were despatched from headquarters. In the wake of the defeat the local Labour constituency chairman quit with words of praise for Jeremy Corbyn.
The former leader’s brother Piers Corbyn stood in the Uxbridge by-election and was beaten into 11th place by candidates including Count Binface and the TV actor Laurence Fox.
That will cheer Starmer, who is likely to react by strengthening his grip on the party discipline and steer policy towards the centre. Anxious to refute attempts by Sunak and his ministers to link Labour to the Just Stop Oil campaign, Starmer has already said that Labour, including London Mayor Sadiq Khan, need “to reflect” on the merits of ULEZ.
The Tories must be ruing their failure to field a nationally known candidate against Khan in next May’s London Mayoral Election.
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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics
History never repeats itself but it does have lessons. On Friday the Conservative Chairman argued that the best analogy was with the parliament leading up to the 1992 General Election.
The Conservatives lost eight seats at by-elections but won them all back on polling day, when the technocratic new Tory leader John Major was unexpectedly kept on in 10 Downing Street as prime minister.
Independent observers note that the scale of Thursday’s victories by Labour and the Liberal Democrats more closely resemble those in the subsequent parliament of 1992 to 1997.
Opposition by-election victories then were harbingers of the New Labour’s massive landslide triumph in the 1997 General Election.
Voters were scared when mortgage rates shot up dramatically due to Conservative policy failures on Black Wednesday, and Major’s popularity never recovered in spite of an economic upturn. Liz Truss’s brief, disastrous, premiership last year may have administered a similar shock and the voters have much less time to forget.
The serial misbehaviour, venality and dishonesty of Boris Johnson’s time in office far outdo the ministerial “back to basics” peccadilloes which undermined Major’s premiership.
Recent by-elections certainly indicate that voters outside the capital have had enough of all that.
Starmer needs a swing as big as that which gave Tony Blair his majority of 165 just to have an overall majority of one seat. He also lacks Blair’s charisma too, in spite of the pair’s recent public love-in.
But the enormity of his victory in the Tory heartland of Selby suggests that the electorate may be prepared to give Starmer the size of victory he needs. His less arrogant, more cautious and painstaking approach may be better suited to the era of the cost of living crisis.
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The parties are urging their supporters to stay loyal to them come what may. The voters are ignoring them. There was large scale tactical voting against the Conservatives in these by-elections.
The Liberal Democrats lost their deposits in Uxbridge and Selby and Labour lost theirs in Somerton. In all three constituencies the Green Party got more votes than the squeezed party.
Some in Labour are blaming the “selfish” Greens and Lib Dems for costing them Uxbridge because they each had more votes than the Tory’s margin of victory. As the leading party rejecting any talk of pacts between parties, this is wanting to have it both ways. Votes are not in the gift of any party.
Meanwhile the Tories are spinning that their voters simply stayed at home and will turn out for them at the general election. Maybe.
Turnout this week was around 45% – lower than at a general election but respectable in by-elections. Besides, on past form, it takes longer than a year to coax back voters once they have changed parties or decided to abstain.
In the Wakefield by-election Labour beat the Tories in the so-called red wall.
In Selby they beat them in a North Yorkshire heartland. The swing was in their favour in Uxbridge, albeit not big enough. Keir Starmer has also lucked out with the other opposition parties.
A stronger performance by the Liberal Democrats, as suggested by their four by-election victories this parliament, will help tear down a Tory majority. The scandal-hit SNP are set to hand seats in Scotland to Labour.
These by-elections did not change the political weather. They confirmed what has been evident in local elections and by-elections since Boris Johnson and Liz Truss fell from grace and the economic clouds darkened.
What now? More of the same until the next election is most likely.
An alleged attack by the Manchester Arena bomb plotter on prison officers at a high-security jail “will stick with” those impacted “for the rest of their lives”, a former officer and colleague of the victims has said.
Hashem Abedi is accused of violently assaulting officers at HMP Frankland in Durham last weekend, using hot cooking oil and an improvised, or homemade, weapon.
He was serving his sentence in a separation unit, known as a “jail within a jail”, after being found guilty of 22 counts of murder for helping his brother Salman Abedi carry out a suicide bombing at an Ariana Grande concert in 2017.
The attack has raised fresh questions about the safety of prison staff.
Inmates inside separation units had access to cooking facilities, which has now been suspended.
Abedi was moved back to Belmarsh after the alleged attack
‘It will stick with them for life’
Matthew, who only wants to be referred to by his first name, worked with the officers who were hospitalised following the attack.
“I’ve spoken to ex-colleagues who I’m still friends with,” he told Sky News.
“They’ve not discussed the specifics of the incident, but they’ve said it will stick with them for the rest of their lives.”
Matthew broke down as he described the “obscene” and “ludicrous” levels of violence that staff face inside prison.
He’s worked at a number of different jails.
“I’ve been there when you’re mopping your colleagues’ blood… when you’ve seen a serious assault, and you don’t know if they’re gonna be OK, and then 10 minutes later, you’ve got to get back on with your day, you’ve got to carry on running the regime,” he said.
“It is difficult, and it is awful.”
Matthew worked with the officers who were hospitalised
‘No adequate protection’
There were 10,496 assaults against prison staff in England and Wales in the 12 months to September – a 19% rise on the previous year.
“The reality is there’s no adequate protections for prison staff, and that’s a great frustration,” the general secretary of the Prison Officers’ Association union, Steve Gillan, told Sky News.
Having visited HMP Frankland earlier in the week, and spoken to many of the officers who were involved, Mr Gillan described the mood among colleagues as one of “anger, frustration, and sadness”.
The association, which represents prison officers, is calling for a “reset” – and for staff to be given stab-proof vests and tasers in “certain circumstances”.
Read more:
Prisons now 98.9% full
Fewer criminals to be jailed
Steve Gillan
‘The entire system needs to change’
Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood said she shared “the country’s shock and anger” at the attack.
The government has launched a review that will look at how it was able to happen, and will also consider how separation centres are run.
The Prison Service is also conducting a “snap” review into whether protective body armour should be available to frontline staff.
But ex-officer Matthew said “nobody is ever truly safe” in the prison service, with staff facing “impossible challenges every day”.
“The entire system needs to change,” he added. “From the ground up.”
Unwary travellers returning from the EU risk having their sandwiches and local delicacies, such as cheese, confiscated as they enter the UK.
The luggage in which they are carrying their goodies may also be seized and destroyed – and if Border Force catch them trying to smuggle meat or dairy products without a declaration, they could face criminal charges.
The new jeopardy has come about because last weekend, the government quietly “extended” its “ban on personal meat imports to protect farmers from foot and mouth”.
This may or may not be bureaucratic over-reaction.
It’s certainly just another of the barriers EU and UK authorities are busily throwing up between each other and their citizens – at a time when political leaders keep saying the two sides should be drawing together in the face of Donald Trump’s attacks on European trade and security.
Keir Starmer’s been embarking on a reset with European leaders. Pic: Reuters
The ban on bringing back “cattle, sheep, goat, and pig meat, as well as dairy products, from EU countries into Great Britain for personal use” is meant “to protect the health of British livestock, the security of farmers, and the UK’s food security.”
There are bitter memories of previous outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in this country, in 1967 and 2001.
In 2001, there were more than 2,000 confirmed cases of infection resulting in six million sheep and cattle being destroyed. Footpaths were closed across the nation and the general election had to be delayed.
In the EU this year, there have been five cases confirmed in Slovakia and four in Hungary. There was a single outbreak in Germany in January, though Defra, the UK agriculture department, says that’s “no longer significant”.
The UK imposed bans on personal meat and dairy imports from those countries, and Austria, earlier this year.
Authorities carry disinfectant near a farm in Dunakiliti, Hungary. Pic: Reuters
Better safe than sorry?
None of the cases of infection are in the three most popular countries for UK visitors – Spain, France, and Italy – now joining the ban. Places from which travellers are most likely to bring back a bit of cheese, salami, or chorizo.
Could the government be putting on a show to farmers that it’s on their side at the price of the public’s inconvenience, when its own measures on inheritance tax and failure to match lost EU subsidies are really doing the farming community harm?
Many will say it’s better to be safe than sorry, but the question remains whether the ban is proportionate or even well targeted on likely sources of infection.
Read more: The products you can’t bring into Britain from the EU
No more gourmet chorizo brought back from Spain for you. File pic: iStock
A ‘Brexit benefit’? Don’t be fooled
The EU has already introduced emergency measures to contain the disease where it has been found. Several thousand cattle in Hungary and Slovenia have been vaccinated or destroyed.
The UK’s ability to impose the ban is not “a benefit of Brexit”. Member nations including the UK were perfectly able to ban the movement of animals and animal products during the “mad cow disease” outbreak in the 1990s, much to the annoyance of the British government of the day.
Since leaving the EU, England, Scotland and Wales are no longer under EU veterinary regulation.
Northern Ireland still is because of its open border with the Republic. The latest ban does not cover people coming into Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, or the Isle of Man.
Rather than introducing further red tape of its own, the British government is supposed to be seeking closer “alignment” with the EU on animal and vegetable trade – SPS or “sanitary and phytosanitary” measures, in the jargon.
A ban on cheese? That’s anything but cracking. Pic: iStock
UK can’t shake ties to EU
The reasons for this are obvious and potentially make or break for food producers in this country.
The EU is the recipient of 67% of UK agri-food exports, even though this has declined by more than 5% since Brexit.
The introduction of full, cumbersome, SPS checks has been delayed five times but are due to come in this October. The government estimates the cost to the industry will be £330m, food producers say it will be more like £2bn.
With Brexit, the UK became a “third country” to the EU, just like the US or China or any other nation. The UK’s ties to the European bloc, however, are much greater.
Half of the UK’s imports come from the EU and 41% of its exports go there. The US is the UK’s single largest national trading partner, but still only accounts for around 17% of trade, in or out.
The difference in the statistics for travellers are even starker – 77% of trips abroad from the UK, for business, leisure or personal reasons, are to EU countries. That is 66.7 million visits a year, compared to 4.5 million or 5% to the US.
And that was in 2023, before Donald Trump and JD Vance’s hostile words and actions put foreign visitors off.
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Trump: ‘Europe is free-loading’
More bureaucratic botheration
Meanwhile, the UK and the EU are making travel between them more bothersome for their citizens and businesses.
This October, the EU’s much-delayed EES or Entry Exit System is due to come into force. Every foreigner will be required to provide biometric information – including fingerprints and scans – every time they enter or leave the Schengen area.
From October next year, visitors from countries including the UK will have to be authorised in advance by ETIAS, the European Travel and Authorisation System. Applications will cost seven euros and will be valid for three years.
Since the beginning of this month, European visitors to the UK have been subject to similar reciprocal measures. They must apply for an ETA, an Electronic Travel Authorisation. This lasts for two years or until a passport expires and costs £16.
The days of freedom of movement for people, goods, and services between the UK and its neighbours are long gone.
The British economy has lost out and British citizens and businesses suffer from greater bureaucratic botheration.
Nor has immigration into the UK gone down since leaving the EU. The numbers have actually gone up, with people from Commonwealth countries, including India, Pakistan and Nigeria, more than compensating for EU citizens who used to come and go.
Editor’s note: Hands off my focaccia sandwiches with prosciutto! Pic: iStock
Will European reset pay off?
The government is talking loudly about the possible benefits of a trade “deal” with Trump’s America.
Meanwhile, minister Nick Thomas Symonds and the civil servant Mike Ellam are engaged in low-profile negotiations with Europe – which could be of far greater economic and social significance.
The public will have to wait to see what progress is being made at least until the first-ever EU-UK summit, due to take place on 19 May this year.
Hard-pressed British food producers and travellers – not to mention young people shut out of educational opportunities in Europe – can only hope that Sir Keir Starmer considers their interests as positively as he does sucking up to the Trump administration.
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