Adam Boulton: After Labour and Lib Dems take by-election seats from Conservatives, what happens next?
What now?
This week’s trio of parliamentary by-elections are bound to be the biggest sampling of voter opinion in an election for Westminster this side of the next general election.
That election is most likely more than a year away. November 2024 is currently the favoured date, although the prime minister could run all the way into the buffers in late January 2025.
In truth in all three constituencies there was a significant swing in share of the votes away from the Conservatives – a 21% drop in support on average – which would have swept them out of power if mirrored across the nation.
As the polling analyst Professor Sir John Curtice put it “the results confirmed the depth of the electoral hole in which the [Conservative] party now finds itself”.
Nonetheless the results were not the total wipe-out which had been widely predicted.
Conservatives are trying to take heart from the mixed headline score of 2-1 rather than 3-0. There was something for everyone.
Each party can claim a success. The Tories held Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge. That was all Rishi Sunak talked about on his quick victory dash to a local cafe when he claimed his defeat at that general election is “not a done deal”.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats each captured a seat won by the Tories under Boris Johnson at 2019 General Election.
The Lib Dem leader popped up in Somerton and Frome with a typically naff victory stunt as he fired a cardboard circus cannon emblazoned with “Get These Clowns out of No 10”.
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Lib Dems: ‘Get these clowns out of No 10!’
Analysis:
Starmer could be even more cautious after defeat
Strap in for a vicious and bloody fight for No 10
Sir Keir Starmer headed to Selby and Ainsty to say “well done Keir” to his namesake, 25-year-old Keir Mather, the Labour victor who is now the youngest MP.
Starmer re-iterated there must be no complacency while simultaneously committing “to deliver” in the next Labour government.
With the help of the performance notes from voters in suburban London, North Yorkshire and Somerset, each party leadership will now review its route map to what it hopes will be success at the general election.
The Conservative tactics are clear. The small boat crossings have not yet stopped, NHS waiting lists are still growing and the prime minister will struggle to deliver on his economic pledges.
Rather than campaign on his record, Rishi Sunak is targeting the notional next Labour government which he says would be worse.
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Sunak optimistic despite defeats
This means totting up spending ideas which Labour has long abandoned, such as the £28bn Green New Deal and pointing to problems in public services “where Labour is in power” such as in Wales and London, without pointing out that his government still ultimately holds their purse strings.
In Ruislip the Labour Mayor of London’s scheduled extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) was a gift to the Tories, even if it resulted from politically charged interplay with central government.
Steve Tuckwell, the successful Conservative candidate, ran on the single issue of this potential £12.50 daily charge for those with older vehicles and did not bother to mention the prime minister in his victory speech.
There may have been other local factors. YouGov founder Peter Kellner points out that that Conservatives have done better in this part of the capital which “seems to be linked to Labour’s support slipping among voters with Indian heritage”.
Against the worldwide crescendo of extreme weather incidents Lord Debden, the Conservative grandee and recent chairman of the UK’s Climate Change Committee and Lord Stern, the government’s former climate change advisor, have both bemoaned Sunak’s apparent lack of interest in net zero measures.
The Tories’ narrow scrape in Ruislip, surviving by just 495 votes, is unlikely to change the prime minister’s mind. He may be more attracted to the siren call of Boris Johnson loyalist Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg that “high cost green policies are not popular”.
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‘ULEZ is why we lost in Uxbridge’
Labour never took victory in Ruislip for granted and their campaign was troubled, even without some lingering affection for Boris Johnson, their big character former MP.
Their candidate attacked the mayor’s ULEZ scheme. Extra party managers were despatched from headquarters. In the wake of the defeat the local Labour constituency chairman quit with words of praise for Jeremy Corbyn.
The former leader’s brother Piers Corbyn stood in the Uxbridge by-election and was beaten into 11th place by candidates including Count Binface and the TV actor Laurence Fox.
That will cheer Starmer, who is likely to react by strengthening his grip on the party discipline and steer policy towards the centre. Anxious to refute attempts by Sunak and his ministers to link Labour to the Just Stop Oil campaign, Starmer has already said that Labour, including London Mayor Sadiq Khan, need “to reflect” on the merits of ULEZ.
The Tories must be ruing their failure to field a nationally known candidate against Khan in next May’s London Mayoral Election.
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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics
History never repeats itself but it does have lessons. On Friday the Conservative Chairman argued that the best analogy was with the parliament leading up to the 1992 General Election.
The Conservatives lost eight seats at by-elections but won them all back on polling day, when the technocratic new Tory leader John Major was unexpectedly kept on in 10 Downing Street as prime minister.
Independent observers note that the scale of Thursday’s victories by Labour and the Liberal Democrats more closely resemble those in the subsequent parliament of 1992 to 1997.
Opposition by-election victories then were harbingers of the New Labour’s massive landslide triumph in the 1997 General Election.
Voters were scared when mortgage rates shot up dramatically due to Conservative policy failures on Black Wednesday, and Major’s popularity never recovered in spite of an economic upturn. Liz Truss’s brief, disastrous, premiership last year may have administered a similar shock and the voters have much less time to forget.
The serial misbehaviour, venality and dishonesty of Boris Johnson’s time in office far outdo the ministerial “back to basics” peccadilloes which undermined Major’s premiership.
Recent by-elections certainly indicate that voters outside the capital have had enough of all that.
Starmer needs a swing as big as that which gave Tony Blair his majority of 165 just to have an overall majority of one seat. He also lacks Blair’s charisma too, in spite of the pair’s recent public love-in.
But the enormity of his victory in the Tory heartland of Selby suggests that the electorate may be prepared to give Starmer the size of victory he needs. His less arrogant, more cautious and painstaking approach may be better suited to the era of the cost of living crisis.
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The parties are urging their supporters to stay loyal to them come what may. The voters are ignoring them. There was large scale tactical voting against the Conservatives in these by-elections.
The Liberal Democrats lost their deposits in Uxbridge and Selby and Labour lost theirs in Somerton. In all three constituencies the Green Party got more votes than the squeezed party.
Some in Labour are blaming the “selfish” Greens and Lib Dems for costing them Uxbridge because they each had more votes than the Tory’s margin of victory. As the leading party rejecting any talk of pacts between parties, this is wanting to have it both ways. Votes are not in the gift of any party.
Meanwhile the Tories are spinning that their voters simply stayed at home and will turn out for them at the general election. Maybe.
Turnout this week was around 45% – lower than at a general election but respectable in by-elections. Besides, on past form, it takes longer than a year to coax back voters once they have changed parties or decided to abstain.
In the Wakefield by-election Labour beat the Tories in the so-called red wall.
In Selby they beat them in a North Yorkshire heartland. The swing was in their favour in Uxbridge, albeit not big enough. Keir Starmer has also lucked out with the other opposition parties.
A stronger performance by the Liberal Democrats, as suggested by their four by-election victories this parliament, will help tear down a Tory majority. The scandal-hit SNP are set to hand seats in Scotland to Labour.
These by-elections did not change the political weather. They confirmed what has been evident in local elections and by-elections since Boris Johnson and Liz Truss fell from grace and the economic clouds darkened.
What now? More of the same until the next election is most likely.
The UK could see one of the hottest June days on record today, with temperatures reaching a scorching 34C.
Since 1960, UK temperatures in June have surpassed 34C in only three years, with the hottest being 35.6C, recorded on 28 June 1976.
It will be the fourth day of a heatwave for much of England, which is forecast to be hotter than holiday spots in Barbados, Jamaica and Mexico.
People enjoy the warm weather on Durley Chine Beach in Dorset. File pic: PA
Wimbledon is set for its hottest ever opening day, with temperatures expected to beat the previous record of 29.3C set on 25 June 2001. The hottest day of the tournament was seen on 1 July 2015, when temperatures reached 35.7C.
Find out the latest weather forecast
It could also be a tropical night, with parts of England staying above 20C overnight into Tuesday, the Met Office said.
On Tuesday parts of southeast England could hit 35C, though Scotland and Northern Ireland face heavy rain and cooler temperatures.
An amber heat health alert came into force on Friday – the second in two weeks.
The alert, which covers London, the East Midlands, the South East, and the East of England, lasts until 6pm on Tuesday.
The UK Health Security Agency also issued a yellow alert for Yorkshire and the Humber and the West Midlands for the same period – warning of significant impacts on health and social care services.
An amber alert was previously issued for all regions in England on 19 June, the first time it had been used since September 2023.
An official heatwave is recorded when areas reach a certain temperature between 25-28C for three consecutive days. The threshold varies across the UK.
London Fire Brigade assistant commissioner Thomas Goodall said London “is already facing its second heatwave of the year” and warned “high temperatures and low rainfall in recent months means the current risk of wildfires is severe”.
He said firefighters have responded to around 14 wildfires in the capital so far this year and said it is “important everyone acts responsibly to prevent fires from occurring”.
“As the weather has been so dry, it only takes a few sparks to lead to a fire spreading rapidly,” he said. “In London, this can be dangerous because so many of our green spaces lie close to homes and other properties.”
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Festivalgoers at this year’s Glastonbury. Pic: PA
It comes after major heatwaves across southern Europe left Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece in sweltering conditions of more than 40C over the weekend.
Temperatures were well above average in parts of southern Spain, with 46.8C recorded in Tresviso.
Two-thirds of Portugal was on high alert for extreme heat and wildfires, while several Italian regions banned outdoor work during peak hours of sun on Sunday.
The Italian health ministry also placed 21 out of 27 monitored cities under its highest heat alert, including top tourist spots Rome, Milan and Naples.
Greece was on high wildfire alert because of the extreme weather, after a large wildfire broke out south of Athens on Thursday, which was fanned by strong winds and damaged several houses.
Dozens of MPs have called on Sir Keir Starmer to “urgently” establish a Ukraine-style visa to allow Gazans with family in the UK to come to Britain.
In a letter seen exclusively by Sky News, the 67 MPs and Lords from across the political spectrum, have asked the prime minister and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper to create a “Gaza Family Scheme” to “reunite [Palestinians] with their loved ones in the UK until it is safe to return”.
“Just as the UK opened its doors to those fleeing persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong, we believe that the same generosity should be extended to Palestinian families,” the letter says.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the UK opened up the Ukraine Family Scheme allowing Ukrainian nationals to join family members in the UK and live, work and study in the UK for up to three years. Applications closed in February 2024.
Two years before, the UK opened the British National (Overseas) visa to allow Hong Kongers fleeing after a strict national security law was imposed by China to live in the UK for five years then apply for British citizenship.
The letter is also addressed to Yvette Cooper. Pic: PA
The letter, sent to the PM on Sunday evening, has been signed by 35 Labour MPs and House of Lords members, including Marsha de Cordova, Clive Lewis, Stella Creasy, Richard Burgon, Kim Johnson, Afzal Khan, Rachael Maskell, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Andy Slaughter and Alex Sobel.
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell are among a handful of former Labour MPs suspended from the party last year to sign the letter, as are all four Green MPs, Lib Dem MPs Tim Farron and Layla Moran, several Northern Ireland MPs and SNP MPs Graham Leadbitter and Brendan O’Hara.
The Bishop of Chelmsford, Dr Guli Francis-Dehquani, has also signed the letter.
Only one Conservative, former special adviser to William Hague, Baroness Helic, signed it.
In the letter, the politicians express their “grave concern at the immense suffering inflicted on Palestinians in Gaza”.
They accuse Israel of “shattering the temporary ceasefire agreement”, weaponising starvation, and intensifying its “campaign of bombardment and military assaults, and targeting of people accessing humanitarian aid”.
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Labour MP Marsha de Cordova organised the letter calling for a Ukraine-style family visa for Gazans. Pic: Parliament.uk
Labour MP Marsha de Cordova, who helped organise the letter with the Gaza Families Reunited campaign, told Sky News: “The Ukrainian Family Visa Scheme was the right response to a brutal war.
“Establishing a Gaza Family Visa Scheme would be an extension of those same principles, showing that this government is steadfast in its commitment to helping families experiencing the worst horrors of war.
“It is time for the government to act now to help British Palestinians get their loved ones to safety, enabling them to rebuild their lives.”
The MPs also say in the letter that since Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking 250 hostage, at least 53,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and “the real death toll is likely to be exponentially higher”.
They say a Gaza Family Scheme would allow Palestinians in Gaza to reunite with their families – “people they may never see again unless urgent action is taken”.
The MPs say many Gazans who have attempted to come to the UK have “struggled to navigate the immigration system”, especially as they are required to provide biometrics to apply for a visa but that is “impossible due to the destruction of the visa application centre in Gaza and blockade of the Rafah crossing”.
They say there are a lack of safe zones or ways out of Gaza and some have constituents with family members who have fled Gaza to Egypt but “are stuck in limbo, with no access to schools or healthcare to begin the process of rebuilding their lives”.
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Dozens dead in Gaza after Israeli strikes
The letter adds that it would be a “vital step” towards addressing the UK government’s “historical, present, and ongoing responsibility towards Palestinians in Gaza” and the UK has a “duty to take all necessary steps to hold Israel to account for its crimes”.
Ghassan Ghaban, spokesperson for Gaza Families Reunited, said “family unity is an undeniable human right” and said Labour in opposition urged the Conservative government to do more to help British Palestinians get their relatives to safety.
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“We are still waiting for the new government to do the right thing,” he said.
“We, as Palestinians in the UK, simply want the opportunity to bring our loved ones from Gaza to safety, until it is safe to return.
“The UK welcomed those fleeing war and persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong with open arms. All we are asking for is the same treatment to be extended to our family members who have experienced unimaginable trauma as a result of Israel’s genocide in Gaza.”
He added there is “only a small number of Palestinians in the UK”, and an even smaller number with family members in Gaza.
A government spokesperson said: “The death and destruction in Gaza is intolerable.
“Since day one, we have been clear that we need to see an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages cruelly detained by Hamas, better protection of civilians, significantly more aid consistently entering Gaza, and a path to long-term peace and stability.
“There are a range of routes available for Palestinians who wish to join family members in the UK.”
UK
From Brazil to Westminster: How health pilot is proving a force for good for patients and the NHS
Jessica Ellis is a Chewie. She’s not from a galaxy far, far away but here, right now, working in one of our most deprived communities. To the people she helps, she is a force for good.
We are standing in front of a large block of council flats in Westminster, central London. The entrycom buzzes.
“Hi Mrs Dikir, how are you?” Jessica asks. And then “thank you” as we’re let in and make our way up five flights of stairs.
Inside the flat, in the living room, Mr Jaber Dikir sits on a soft, plush armchair. It has to be comfortable because Mr Dikir spends most of his days sitting here.
“I have a heart problem, I have open heart surgery and now I have heart failure,” Mr Dikir explains. “I have water in my chest and that gives me big trouble to sleep, to breathe,” he adds as he begins to wheeze.
I ask Mr Jaber how Jessica has been able to help him.
“She hears you, she listens to you,” he replies. “She understands everything. She even called the doctor and he gave me permission to stay at home (for my blood tests). That’s really appreciated. I couldn’t walk properly, I couldn’t go to the clinic.”
Jessica is a community health and wellbeing worker (CHWWs). That’s where the nickname comes from.
CHWWs work in small teams, going door to door in some of the most deprived areas of the country.
It’s part of an NHS pilot inspired by a successful programme in Brazil.
A simple but effective intervention
Jessica says her role is “to make life easier”. Mr Dakir, she tells me, is struggling with his mobility. So is organising a designated disabled bay.
“Mr Dakir is struggling to get out to his appointments, and the GP needs a blood test from him. So I was able to speak to the GP and he’s been labelled as temporarily housebound so the district nursing team can come in now and take the bloods for him at home.”
Jessica Ellis works as a community health and wellbeing worker in Westminster
A simple but effective intervention that has a huge impact on Mr Dakir and the NHS.
The project is currently being used in 15 neighbourhoods around the country. In Westminster, there has been a 7% drop in A&E admissions and an 11% reduction in hospital admissions year on year.
There has also been a 47% increase in the likelihood of households having vaccinations, an 82% increase in cancer screenings and a 7.3% drop in unscheduled GP consultations.
Taking community care right to the patient’s door
Dr Melinda Creme is a local GP. Jessica acts as a conduit between Dr Creme and her patients.
Dr Melinda Creme, a GP in Westminster
“We need to look at the costs of what might happen downstream if disease is not picked up earlier, if health inequalities are not addressed sooner, and so there should be potential huge savings down the line.
“It might take five years, 10 years to make a difference and that’s the issue, because obviously governments change within that time.
“But if there’s a long-term lens on this, then we stand a chance of being able to afford a health service free at the point of delivery.”
This is exactly what the government wants, what the NHS wants, to bring care into the community. With this project, they are taking community care right to the patient’s door.
Community health and wellbeing worker Jessica Ellis visits Jaber Dikir, who has a heart condition, at his home
Dr Creme says the days when people would go to their GP and expect their family doctor to look after anybody and everybody about everything are gone.
“We can’t possibly do that. We’re not equipped to do that because the population is expanding and we cannot address all needs.”
Labour’s 10-year health plan set for launch
The government is expected to focus on personalised and community care in its 10-year health plan when it is published on Thursday.
It will look to ease pressure on buckling emergency departments and models like this have shown early signs of good results, but they require time and investment.
Projects like this can help ease the strain on services facing record pressures and tight budgets. They could be a significant part of a wider NHS plan.
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