An Ohtani blockbuster trade? We propose deals for Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers and six others
Two weeks before the Aug. 1 MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Angels are hovering around the .500 mark, which leaves one question hanging over the entire sport: Will the Halos trade free-agent-to-be Shohei Ohtani?
Though we don’t yet know what the Angels’ decision will be, we aren’t about to let that stop us from trying to find the best trade partner for a potential Ohtani blockbuster.
We asked our MLB experts to play GM for nine teams that could potentially pull off a deal for Ohtani, making their best possible offers to land the two-way superstar, and we enlisted Jeff Passan to decide which proposals are worth the Angels’ time.
Sorry, you must have the wrong number
Proposed deal: RHP Shane Baz, 2B/3B Curtis Mead, 1B Xavier Isaac, RHP Marcus Johnson
An Ohtani trade wouldn’t constitute a rebuild for the Angels; they’d want to try to win again next season, and they’d be looking to add players who are (1) controllable for several years and (2) ready to contribute in 2024. That’s why this is the perfect package.
Baz has the ability to become one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet, and he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery for the start of 2024. Mead, No. 34 on Kiley McDaniel’s latest prospect rankings, boasts a nice combination of contact ability and power and can be the everyday second baseman next season, plus he provides insurance for an injury-prone Anthony Rendon at third base.
This is an aggressive package, especially when you consider the lower-level, higher-ceiling guys tacked on. But the Rays are a championship-caliber team that could use a boost and would never have a chance at a superstar player like this if not for the trade market. Who knows — maybe Ohtani, who has taken to analytics since working out at Driveline three winters ago, falls in love with the infrastructure in Tampa, and the Rays, trying to finalize a new stadium in the area, do the impossible and sign him long term. Wilder things have happened. For now, though, Ohtani for the rest of this season alone would place them head and shoulders above everybody else. — Alden Gonzalez
GM Jeff says … If Junior Caminero isn’t in this deal, I’m hanging up. As good as Baz could be, as well as Mead has hit, as much as Isaac’s numbers show he wasn’t an overdraft, as gaudy as Johnson’s strikeout to walk ratio may be (74-to-6), I need a no-doubt carrying piece. Caminero’s rocketing stock — .330/.386/.588 between High-A and Double-A as a just-turned-20-year-old — and his ability to play both positions on the left side of the infield make him a must in any trade. If not him, at least give me Carson Williams, also a shortstop and also mighty dynamic. The Rays have a robust enough farm system to get Ohtani, no doubt, but for an organization that knows it has no chance of re-signing him, the offer will only go so high, even if he is the sort of player who can get them to the World Series.
Proposed deal: CF Everson Pereira, SS Trey Sweeney, RHP Chase Hampton, RHP Drew Thorpe, 2B Jared Serna
I prioritized including multiple prospects who could be on a top 100 list this winter or next rather than just one top player and skewing most of the value toward (1) position players and (2) being in Double-A now or soon. Pereira (power-over-hit outfield tweener) and Sweeney (hit-over-power lefty-hitting shortstop) are probably both in the back half of the top 100 right now. Hampton and Thorpe are arrow-up starters with above-average stuff and enough feel to start, while Serna is a nice late-blooming power/speed performer. — Kiley McDaniel
GM Jeff says … This feels a lot like the Joey Gallo deal, which, in hindsight, turned out pretty well for the Rangers. But this is Shohei Ohtani, man. I want Spencer Jones, the leviathan outfielder. I want Jasson Dominguez, The Martian. The Yankees certainly can deal in bulk, and they’re the team that might benefit most from Ohtani’s presence. And because — unlike the Rays — they’re plenty capable of signing him as a free agent, this would be as much a showcase to him as it is a rental to the club. So, sorry, Fake Cashman. Get back to the drawing board and bring me something better.
Proposed deal: SS Ronny Mauricio, 3B Mark Vientos, C Kevin Parada, RHP Mike Vasil
You think owner Steve Cohen believes his team is too far out of contention? C’mon. DH Daniel Vogelbach and rotation filler David Peterson aren’t exactly All-Stars, and half of this team is over 34 years old. The Mets have no interest in melding these top prospects to the big club, and each is blocked. Ohtani can join former teammate Kodai Senga and see what it’s like in the top media market. Oh, and which team can spend the most money this winter? Yep. — Eric Karabell
GM Jeff says … I get it. There are a lot of names in this deal. But Mauricio and Vientos, for all their power, have troubling plate-discipline numbers, Parada is redundant with Logan O’Hoppe — a catcher in the midst of a breakout before a brutal left shoulder injury — and Vasil is more a back end of the rotation type than a top dude. This feels like a missed opportunity, frankly. If the Angels really were to move Ohtani, they could use him as the carrot to wheedle a team into taking on the rest of Rendon’s deal, which will cost about $127 million. Yes, Rendon has a no-trade clause, but he also could be in search of a change of scenery after 3½ middling years in Anaheim. Considering owner Arte Moreno operates on a finite budget, financial flexibility really would be meaningful as I try to rebuild this team post-Ohtani.
Call back when you’re ready to get serious
Proposed deal: OF/1B Heston Kjerstad, 3B Coby Mayo, LHP Cade Povich, LHP DL Hall
With the Rays faltering and the Rangers and Astros having some of the same pitching concerns as Baltimore, now is absolutely the time for the Orioles to make the biggest trade in franchise history since they acquired Frank Robinson. If they acquire Ohtani, they would be the best team in the American League — and no team is better equipped to make a deal than the Orioles, who have the best farm system in the majors. Heck, it’s so deep they won’t be able to play all these guys anyway. It’s more loaded in position players and the Angels probably want some pitching, so we’re including two hitting stars and two potential lefty starters. And, no, don’t even ask about Jackson Holliday. — David Schoenfield
GM Jeff says … So, how about Jackson Holliday? OK. Fine. But what you’ve got here isn’t enough for the Angels … and probably is too much for the Orioles. They have built their stout major league roster with patience, a plan and the understanding that as great as 2023 has been, their future competitiveness rests on a player-development run that’s almost too good to be true. Keeping their young core together is imperative. That said: I love Kjerstad’s left-handed swing, Mayo’s production is elite and in Povich and Hall you get two lefties with premium stuff. Perhaps plumbing the big league roster is in order. Colton Cowser is the sort of headliner who would make this more attractive.
Proposed deal: LHP Kyle Harrison, SS Marco Luciano, LHP/DH Reggie Crawford, OF Mike Yastrzemski
It’s painful to give up two top-20 prospects in Harrison and Luciano, but a San Francisco trade for Ohtani isn’t just about 2023. This gives the Giants a leg up on signing him long-term. We already know they have money to spend — see their pursuits of Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge for evidence. The Angels get back a few home runs in Yastrzemski while the Giants open up a spot for Joc Pederson to play the outfield when Ohtani is the designated hitter. Putting Crawford in the deal just seems right considering he’s doing an Ohtani in High-A. Yes, I’m proposing a two-way player gets traded for another two-way player. Fun. — Jesse Rogers
GM Jeff says … Not bad, but I want left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, too. And I suppose that’s my problem here. Trading for pitching prospects is scary, and this deal revolves around them. Yes, the Dodgers’ deal below does, too, but the volume — and Rushing being better than Luciano — exceeds the Giants’ offer, even if they were to include Whisenhunt. Remember, too, the Giants’ big league roster is extremely deep, and while I wouldn’t expect them to offer Patrick Bailey for a rental — even Ohtani — grabbing Luis Matos, Casey Schmitt or maybe Blake Sabol would turn this deal from an afterthought into a competitor.
Proposed deal: SS Cole Young, CF Jonatan Clase, RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Darren Bowen
I focused on trying to offer the single best prospect, because the quality depth that I’m dealing with here isn’t enough to just pick a couple players from the options at each prospect tier. It’s up for debate whether Young (or Harry Ford if you prefer) would be the best single prospect on the table, but that would at least be a discussion, with all of the players in that discussion ranking in the 26-50 tier of a top 100 list. Clase is an 80-grade runner with big tools and a big arrow up this season (now at Double-A), while Hancock is a former top-10 overall pick who is turning the corner (in Double-A) to becoming a rotation player as soon as 2024.
You get two obvious big leaguers and one intriguing lottery ticket, and none are more than two years away. Other than the already-good-in-the-big-leagues Bryan Woo, these are the best prospects I can offer who are close to the majors. Oh, and I’ll throw in the biggest arrow-up pitcher in the system this year in Bowen, who has two plus pitches and starter traits, but he’s a late-bloomer with limited pro innings. — McDaniel
GM Jeff says … This is a good offer, but if I’m the Angels — er, I am the Angels — I want a sure-thing leading man, and that doesn’t exist here. Seriously, you have a big league rotation full of productive starters, and you’re not going to even offer me one? Start with Logan Gilbert or George Kirby and you leap to the top of the list. Woo is plenty intriguing, too.
As for the names included: Young can really, really hit, Clase’s power-speed combo belies his short stature and Hancock and Bowen are both tooled-up arms. The problem with any Mariners offer, of course, is that they’re just not good enough this season to warrant selling the farm. So this trade would essentially be: a bunch of very promising players for the right to put the hard sell on Ohtani over a two-month period. And as ridiculous as this sounds, it’s the sort of gamble the Mariners might consider worth taking — and they wouldn’t be wrong. The “Come to Seattle” chants at the All-Star Game said everything the Mariners need to know. If there is anybody in baseball worth getting stupid over, it’s Shohei Ohtani.
Now we’re talking
Proposed deal: SS Jordan Lawlar, OF Alek Thomas, RHP Slade Cecconi, LHP Yu-Min Lin
The Diamondbacks are building something really nice here, so they’ll be reluctant to deal away future talent, but given Ohtani is favored to land with the Dodgers or Giants as a free agent, 2023 might actually be their best opportunity to win a division title over the next five years. Added bonus: They might be the only National League team with both the resources and motive to make a deal — the Braves and Phillies don’t have the prospects, for example, and the Dodgers could prefer to just sign Ohtani. The D-backs have two premium prospects in Lawlar and outfielder Druw Jones, and Geraldo Perdomo‘s breakout could allow them to include Lawlar in a deal. Thomas gives the Angels a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder who could be the next Kevin Kiermaier — great D, good enough at the plate. That’s a strong package right there, and we’ve included two solid pitching prospects as well. — Schoenfield
GM Jeff says … This is a strong offer — and I’m still inclined to say no. While Lawlar is a top-25 prospect, some scouts have doubts that he’s the sort of player around whom a deal of this magnitude could be built. Lin is a favorite, already up to Double-A having just turned 20 years old, but Thomas simply hasn’t hit in 600 big league plate appearances and Cecconi is faltering in Triple-A. If you want to consider shortstops Blaze Alexander and Jansel Luis in the deal, I’d be a lot more willing to listen.
Proposed deal: RHP Brock Porter, RHP Jack Leiter, UT Ezequiel Duran, 2B Justin Foscue, OF Yeison Morrobel
It’ll take a lot for any team to pry Ohtani away from the Angels, especially within the division. It’ll almost assuredly require at least three of this deep farm system’s top six prospects, a budding big league star and a promising younger pitching prospect. Might it take six players? Perhaps, but Texas has more of an in-season rental feel among prospective Ohtani destinations, which is why OF Evan Carter and SP Owen White are off-limits. Or, at least, that’s the part that’s for Jeff’s ears. The part that’s not: If it needs to be White in place of Porter or Leiter, or SS Luisangel Acuna in place of Foscue, so be it (though probably not both). When you’ve got a chance to win, you take it, and Ohtani would fill the injured Jacob deGrom‘s shoes as staff ace nicely. Ideally, we keep Jeff on the line and haggle on those final pieces. — Tristan Cockcroft
GM Jeff says … Now we’re starting to talk. Perhaps some don’t know much about Duran — who, incidentally, came over in the Gallo deal — but he’s quite a good big leaguer already. He just turned 24, isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season, is hitting .300/.336/.514 and is capable of playing every infield position and both corner-outfield spots. He’s the best current player offered so far, and Alden’s point about the Angels wanting close-to-the-big-leagues contributors makes this deal very attractive. Foscue could be a productive major leaguer right now. Porter is the best pitching prospect in Texas’ system. Leiter has the pedigree. Want a definitive yes? Flip Morrobel for Sebastian Walcott, the 17-year-old Bahamian shortstop who is wowing scouts as he destroys the Arizona Complex League.
You had me at hello
Proposed deal: OF Josue De Paula, RHP Nick Nastrini, RHP Ryan Pepiot, C Dalton Rushing, RHP Emmet Sheehan, RHP Gavin Stone
I’m not listening to suggestions that we can just wait until the winter to blow the Ohtani market out of the water. I want him in Chavez Ravine and I want him now. There is a title out there to be won — this season — and Ohtani could well be the player who gets us over the top.
But make no mistake: This is not a mere short-term splash. We have been angling for this player since last season ended. Getting him now only enhances our ability to keep him for the rest of his Hall of Fame career. How is he going to resist a market-value offer from the Dodgers after a deep postseason run that unfolds in a setting that doesn’t require him to move house, with a club that has more than a decade of proof that every single season we are in it to win it? I don’t want him to experience the playoffs with another team. And I don’t worry about our system — it’s deep. Our scouting and development operations are fecund. We are the Dodgers. Resistance is futile. — Bradford Doolittle
GM Jeff says … Um. Yes. I almost feel bad about this, because the Dodgers would not do this in real life, but you know what? That’s cool, because it serves as a wonderful illustration of how good their farm system actually is. Rushing might be the best player offered in any deal, and while the O’Hoppe factor exists, you don’t say no to a player with his talent. Even if only two of the pitchers pan out, the upside is so high — from Sheehan’s fastball to Stone’s and Pepiot’s changeups to Nastrini’s slider — that you absolutely bet on any of them. And to get De Paula, the 18-year-old who is more than holding his own in full-season ball, as an add-on?
Perhaps this offer is a function of the reality, which is that there’s almost no chance Moreno ever would move Ohtani to the Dodgers. Then again, however rough those optics would be — especially if Ohtani fell in love with the team and signed there this winter because he so enjoyed his post-deadline time — taking six elite players, all with six years of major league control, is a far better consolation prize than not dealing him and losing him in free agency for a middling draft pick after the second round.
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Andrea Adelson
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — After Alabama beat Tennessee 37-20 on Saturday night, coach Kalen DeBoer wanted to make sure his players enjoyed their postgame cigars to celebrate another win in their storied rivalry.
There is still a long road to go, but what Alabama has done to get to this point is worthy of a celebratory cigar, too.
After a Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama has stacked one victory after the next, winning six straight, finding an edge and different ways to motivate themselves. Proving they were better than that team that opened in Tallahassee is certainly one of those reasons. But there were others — proving they could win on the road and doing so against Georgia. Beating Vanderbilt after losing to them last year. And Saturday night, regaining the edge against Tennessee after losing to them last year, too.
The result? Alabama is the first team in SEC history to win four straight games, all against ranked teams, with no bye week mixed in, according to ESPN Research.
“They’ve got an edge to them still, and haven’t lost it since the beginning there after week one. That’s hard to do,” DeBoer said afterward. “It’s really hard to do. As you go through the weeks, there’s been enough reasons, different motivation factors, to get up for games, and our guys, each and every week, find a way to do it. So we’ve got to keep the pedal down.”
The key turning point happened just before halftime. Tennessee was on the Alabama 1-yard line with eight seconds left in the quarter, down 16-7. Joey Aguilar dropped back and threw right toward tight end Miles Kitselman, who appeared to be open in the end zone. But Zabien Brown jumped the route and intercepted the pass, returning it 99 yards for the score to give Alabama a 23-7 lead.
“The ball fell right in my hand,” Brown said. “I [saw] open field and I started running. I’m like, if I get tackled, the time [will] go out. So I gotta find a way to get in that [end] zone.”
It was a triumphant day for the defense, which had struggled at times to limit explosive plays throughout the course of the season and put their stamp on a game. Alabama also had a safety in the first half and made life uncomfortable for Aguilar all night. Tennessee came into the game as the highest scoring offense in the SEC, but Alabama held them to a season-low 20 points and 410 total yards. The Vols only scored on two of their five red zone chances.
Alabama fans lit their cigars in stadium well before the game ended. It was Alabama’s 11th straight home win in the series, and also ran DeBoer’s record at home to 11-0 since his arrival last year. He has also won six straight since switching to a black hoodie on the sideline, something that has become a major talking point among the Alabama fan base.
When asked if he was giving the fans what they wanted by continuing to wear the black hoodie, DeBoer said, “This isn’t new. I’ve done this for years. But we’re going to ride the momentum. I told the guys not to get any [cigar] ashes on it.”
The Crimson Tide sit at 4-0 in SEC play and are one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, along with Texas A&M. Up next is a trip to South Carolina before an open date.
“I think we understand the week of preparation gets you mentally in the right space to where you’re confident going out on the football field,” DeBoer said. “When you’re confident, you got a little more energy. And that’s really what I see with our guys, and that fires me up.”
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Adam Rittenberg
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — When the clock expired on a 34-24 win over USC, Notre Dame took a dig at its West Coast rival by playing a modified version of the song “California Love,” which began instead with the lyric “Jeremiyah Love.”
The serenade for USC players and coaches as they left a rain-soaked Notre Dame Stadium certainly didn’t sound good, but it wasn’t as bad as facing the actual Jeremiyah Love and his sidekick, Jadarian Price. Love rolled up 228 rushing yards, the most by a Notre Dame player in the 512-game history of Notre Dame Stadium, and the most by a Notre Dame player against USC in the storied rivalry. Price added 87 rushing yards and a 100-yard kick return touchdown that put the 13th-ranked Irish ahead for good.
Notre Dame kept its College Football Playoff hopes alive with its third straight win against USC in the final scheduled game of the historic intersectional rivalry.
“It’s not very common in college, not very common in life, to see two guys that are so talented, that deserve the ball in their hands every snap, put the team above themselves, and then make the most of their opportunities,” coach Marcus Freeman said. “They’re not pouting, they’re each other’s biggest supporter.
“That might be one of the hardest things we ask our plays to do — put team before me. Everything outside of here says, ‘No, you come before team.'”
After getting only 20 touches combined in a season-opening loss at Miami, Love and Price knew they would be featured against No. 20 USC, as the forecast called for heavy rain. Love raced 63 yards on his first carry and finished Notre Dame’s opening drive with a 12-yard touchdown run. On the team’s next scoring drive, Price had 56 rushing yards and a 16-yard touchdown.
“We believe that every game goes through the running back room,” Love said, “so if we’re on our stuff, the offense is going to be on their stuff. Just be great backs, be great teammates.”
Price’s biggest play came on special teams, after USC had taken a 24-21 lead with 4:32 left in the third quarter. He initially erred by going outside his blocker on the kick return, but eventually found room and sliced through USC’s defense.
He became the first Notre Dame player with multiple 100-yard kick returns, as he had one Sept. 20 late in the first half against Purdue. Price also had a 99-yard scoring return against USC in 2023 on the same field.
“I am sitting there like, ‘God, I get you, now,'” Freeman said, smiling. “Notre Dame, there is something [here]. At that moment I’m like, ‘What is going on?’ … That was a huge play for this team.”
A preseason All-America selection, Love only received 14 total touches — 10 rushes and four receptions — in Notre Dame’s season-opening loss at Miami, while Price had just six carries against the Hurricanes. But both backs have seen their workload increase as Notre Dame shapes its offensive identity around them.
“It’s really dangerous,” Price said. “We start with the run game.”
USC answered for much of the night with its passing attack, which piled up 328 yards. But after converting a third-and-9 with a 42-yard pass from Jayden Maiava to Makai Lemon into Notre Dame territory, USC called for a wide receiver option pass, and Lemon lost the ball, recovered by Irish linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa.
“Stupid call,” coach Lincoln Riley said. “It was a stupid call.”
Notre Dame and USC met for the 96th time Saturday night, but the future of the series is in doubt despite a desire on both sides to continue. The schools have differing views on the length of a future scheduling agreement and where games are played.
The rivalry hasn’t lost its zest, as players and coaches barked at each other after the game, and several USC players were whisked away as the Irish gathered to sing their alma mater.
“This is the biggest intersectional rivalry in college football,” Notre Dame linebacker Jaylen Sneed said. “It just means more to us. … It should still be played. It’s a game that I circle every year on my calendar, and I think everybody else does.”
On Sunday, the 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will do something they’ve never done before — they’re going to meet for two days at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, for what they’re calling a “level set” meeting. It’s an early opportunity for the entire group to get together and discuss what they’ve seen so far without releasing a ranking.
And they saw a lot in Week 8.
Undefeated Miami went down in a stunning loss at home to Louisville. Undefeated Ole Miss went down. Undefeated Texas Tech went down. Undefeated Memphis went down. And Alabama made a case to move up.
There was a lot of movement in Week 8, and the committee members will do their own mock ranking to help the new members better understand the process. They will use the results to-date, but the first of six real rankings won’t be revealed until Nov. 4. The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 8’s top 12 projection is a snapshot of who has the early edge if the ranking were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes’ grip on the top spot got tighter after Miami’s home loss to Louisville on Friday night, but the Hoosiers are on their heels. Ohio State beat Wisconsin with ease, earning its third Big Ten road win. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiencies — and No. 2 in total efficiency — according to ESPN Analytics. They were also No. 2 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record — all metrics that indicate the total package the committee is looking for with eye test and résumé.
Why they could be lower: There would be some committee members who consider Indiana for the top spot, as the undefeated Hoosiers’ road win at Oregon remains the best in the country. IU is on par with Ohio State statistically, ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and No. 3 in Game Control. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas, though, would loom large in the room as a separating factor.
Need to know: Ohio State and Indiana are on track to face each other in the Big Ten title game. If that comes to fruition and they are both undefeated, the loser of the game can still earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye because those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions. ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games and the best chance in the league to reach the Big Ten championship.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: Indiana moved up one spot after beating Michigan State and as a result of Miami losing to Louisville, but the Hoosiers are here because they won at Oregon on Oct. 11. The double-digit win snapped the Ducks’ 18-game home winning streak and legitimized IU’s playoff hopes. More than that, it put the Hoosiers in contention for a top-four seed and first-round bye. They continued to build upon that Saturday against the Spartans, earning their fourth straight Big Ten win, including two on the road. One of the biggest differences between IU and Ohio State in the eyes of the committee would be the Buckeyes’ nonconference win against Texas, which trumps IU’s wins against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: Indiana’s win against Oregon is still better than Ohio State’s best win, and the Hoosiers entered Week 8 ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. That means the average top 25 opponent would have just an 11% chance to achieve the same 7-0 record against the same opponents. The committee also considers common opponents, and while Ohio State beat Illinois with ease 34-16, Indiana beat the Illini in historic fashion 63-10.
Need to know: Indiana has the second-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game behind Ohio State, according to ESPN Analytics. The Hoosiers have at least a 70% chance to win each of their remaining games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Penn State. It’s certainly not the obstacle it appeared to be a month ago, but it’s still the most difficult road trip remaining and a tougher environment to win in than Maryland.
Why they could be here: With the win against Tennessee, Alabama has beaten four straight ranked opponents, including Georgia and Missouri on the road. This has been one of the most grueling stretches any team in the country has played, and Alabama hasn’t just won — it’s gotten better each week. Since the inception of the CFP, the committee has never shied away from ranking a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team if it has played better against better competition, and the Tide has done that.
Why they could be lower: The loss to Florida State did happen, and the Noles have since spiraled into irrelevance in the national picture and the ACC race. Texas A&M has a better nonconference win at Notre Dame, while Alabama beat a beleaguered 2-5 Wisconsin team at home on Sept. 13.
Need to know: Alabama entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, well above No. 21-ranked Texas A&M.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. Alabama won’t face a quarterback better than John Mateer in the second half of the season. Rival Auburn continues to struggle, and LSU still seems incapable of putting together a complete performance.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M is still undefeated — the only one left in the SEC — but it hasn’t racked up the statement wins like Alabama. And Saturday’s 45-42 victory against a 2-5 Arkansas team didn’t come easily. The Aggies allowed 527 total yards, including 268 on the ground. Still, the Aggies earned their second road triumph of the season, a double-digit victory against a pesky Arkansas team playing inspired football under interim coach Bobby Petrino. Texas A&M entered Week 8 No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and the 41-40 win at Notre Dame is a big reason why. It’s the Aggies’ lone win against a ranked opponent.
Why they could be higher: If the committee keeps the Aggies ahead of Bama, it will be because of the Tide’s season-opening loss to FSU and Texas A&M’s win at Notre Dame.
Need to know: Texas A&M and Alabama don’t play each other during the regular season but could meet in the SEC title game — if the Aggies survive a more difficult back half of the season. Texas A&M still has three tough road games against LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. A Friday night road trip against a ranked rival is a tricky way to end the season.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs have two wins over what should be CFP Top 25 opponents in Tennessee and Ole Miss, and some committee members will consider the three-point loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 a better loss than Miami’s home loss to Louisville after a bye. The head-to-head result will keep Georgia behind the Tide, though, as long as their records remain the same. Saturday’s win against previously undefeated Ole Miss is the Bulldogs’ best victories of the season and one of the better ones in the country.
Why they could be lower: Miami’s loss to Louisville wasn’t a bad loss, but it was a poor performance. There could still be some committee members who believe Miami’s overall résumé is better than Georgia’s with nonconference wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. Georgia’s nonconference triumphs are over Marshall and Austin Peay. And prior to the Louisville game, Miami was playing better defense more consistently than the Bulldogs.
Need to know: With Georgia Tech’s win at Duke on Saturday, Georgia’s in-state rival is on track to reach the ACC championship game. If Georgia can capture the regular-season finale between the two schools, it could wind up being one of its best wins in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns will likely be the last ranked SEC opponent the Bulldogs face.
Why they could be here: The loss to Louisville will be less of a problem in the committee meeting room than how Miami lost. The four turnovers from Carson Beck — plus converting just five of 12 third downs — are the kinds of stats former coaches and players in the room will bring up. There will also be a respect, though, for one-loss Louisville, which would probably be a CFP Top 25 team. Miami’s overall schedule will still carry a lot of weight with the committee, as wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida are a significantly tougher nonconference lineup than most other contenders.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss had a better loss in Week 8 on the road to Georgia than the Canes’ home defeat by Louisville.
Need to know: The Canes’ chances of earning a first-round bye as a top four seed took a hit with their loss to Louisville. In the straight seeding format, the selection committee’s top four teams will earn the top-four seeds — they are no longer reserved for conference champions. Miami could finish as a one-loss ACC champ, but still finish outside of the top four. The selection committee compares common opponents, and will consider that Miami beat Florida State and Alabama did not, but the Tide could win the overall debate with a stronger résumé. The committee also considers how teams lost, and the Canes made too many mistakes on both sides of the ball against Louisville, but the Cardinals are a talented team that could be in the CFP Top 25 on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami has left its state. The Mustangs beat Clemson 35-24 on Saturday, but the Tigers were without starting quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Why they could be here: A close road loss to a CFP contender isn’t going to knock the Rebels out of the field, but their overall résumé could use a boost after LSU’s loss to Vanderbilt. It helped a bit that Tulane found a way to escape Army on Saturday — though the Green Wave needed two touchdown passes in the final two minutes to do it. Tulane remains in contention for a playoff bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and Ole Miss beat the Green Wave soundly, 45-10 on Sept. 20. The selection committee pays close attention to how these games are won and lost, and will have seen Ole Miss struggle with Washington State and its inability to make some critical defensive stops against Georgia.
Why they could be lower: Statistically, Oregon has been the more complete team, entering Week 8 No. 5 in total efficiency while Ole Miss was No. 30. The Ducks were No. 4 in the country in points margin, and No. 13 in scoring defense. Ole Miss has also been one of the nation’s most penalized teams, ranking No. 118 with 7.83 per game and No. 126 with 74 penalty yards per game, while Oregon is in the top 10 in both categories for fewest penalties and yards. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss also ranked No. 63 in schedule strength while Oregon was No. 25.
Need to know: The Rebels are under some pressure to beat Oklahoma in Week 9 because a 10-2 record might not be good enough for an at-large bid. Ole Miss would have lost two of its top three chances to impress the committee against ranked opponents — the one they got was against LSU.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. The Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas with a win on Saturday at South Carolina. It will be the second straight road trip for Ole Miss.
Why they could be here: The Ducks returned to their dominating form, albeit against a now 3-4 Rutgers team. Oregon has flourished against lesser competition all season, leaving no doubt it’s the better team and padding its stats along the way against teams like 1-6 Oklahoma State and FCS Montana State. They needed double overtime to win at Penn State, though, and lost at home by double digits to Indiana. Quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times against the Hoosiers. Their best wins so far have come on the road against Northwestern and Penn State, but selection committee members also consider the extraordinary amount of travel involved, including the nearly 3,000 miles in Week 8 to Piscataway, N.J.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has simply played better more consistently than Ole Miss, and the Ducks entered Week 8 ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Game Control metric.
Need to know: If Oregon runs the table and finishes as a one-loss team without a conference title, this No. 8 spot would still give the Ducks a first-round home game as the higher seed, pitted against No. 9 Oklahoma in this case.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. Road trips to Iowa and Washington aren’t gimmes — and Minnesota should be bowl bound — but the Trojans will likely be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face.
Why they could be here: The Sooners earned their first true road win of the season on Saturday at South Carolina. The win against Michigan continues to be a valuable nonconference result, but the committee would probably be more impressed with Miami’s overall résumé. The Sooners’ narrow home win against Auburn has taken a hit over the past few weeks. Oklahoma’s win against South Carolina was further proof that quarterback John Mateer remains one of the most talented players in the country, as he added a 40-yard punt to his résumé in his second game back from hand surgery.
Why they could be lower: Georgia Tech is undefeated and that would be the biggest reason the committee would flip the two. Oklahoma’s defense has been significantly better against a tougher schedule.
Need to know: The Sooners end the season with five straight ranked opponents, including back-to-back November trips to Tennessee and Alabama.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will have a much-needed bye week before traveling to Alabama.
Why they could be here: With LSU’s loss and Georgia Tech’s win at Duke, the door opened for the Yellow Jackets to enter the field. Georgia Tech has two road wins against ACC teams over .500 (at Wake Forest and now at Duke). Its out-of-conference schedule includes wins over power conferences foes Colorado and Virginia Tech, but that pair is just 5-9 combined. None of the Yellow Jackets’ opponents are currently ranked, and entering this week, Georgia Tech’s schedule strength was No. 94 in the country. Still, the selection committee would see on its game film cut-ups that Haynes King threw for 205 yards against Duke and ran for a game-high 120 yards. It’s a talented team that continues to find ways to win, including with a school-record 95-yard scoop n’ score on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Jackets have found ways to win, but they haven’t exactly asserted themselves against unranked opponents. Their only double-digit win came against the 2-5 Hokies. Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, 30-29, and the committee would know that the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.
Need to know: Georgia Tech might not have any wins against CFP Top 25 teams on Selection Day, but it wouldn’t matter if the Jackets locked up a spot as the ACC champion. It would be a part of the committee’s deliberations, though, if Georgia Tech finished as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with those losses coming to the ACC winner and rival Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could be here: The Cougars beat their toughest opponent to-date, a ranked Utah team that now has two losses. BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12, and continues to find ways to win. They’ve also got three road wins (East Carolina, Colorado and Arizona), and benefited from Texas Tech losing to ASU.
Why they could be lower: Wins against FCS Portland State, 2-4 Stanford, 3-4 Colorado and 2-5 West Virginia don’t stack up with the other contenders. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Need to know: BYU would lock up a spot as the Big 12 champion, but if the Cougars can manage to stay undefeated until the conference title game, they would keep their hopes alive for earning an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The committee would consider how the title game unfolded, and if BYU lost a close game or in convincing fashion. It helps BYU that Cincinnati is having a good season and could be a CFP Top 25 team, but that’s a double edged sword because the Bearcats are also in their way.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. Even though the Red Raiders lost on Saturday, they’re still the most talented team left on the Cougars’ schedule.
Why they could be here: The Irish have won five straight since their 0-2 start, but it’s the way they have played during that stretch that would impress the committee enough to consider them for a top-12 spot. Notre Dame put it all together against USC, its first win against a ranked opponent this season. The Irish won the old-school way, with a strong running game and a defense that has shown measurable improvement in each of the past four games. Special teams was also a factor against the Trojans.
Why they could be lower: Two losses. Period. And it doesn’t help that the first was to Miami, which lost to Louisville.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — South Florida as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against a team that found a way to win at Florida State.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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