An Ohtani blockbuster trade? We propose deals for Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers and six others
Two weeks before the Aug. 1 MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Angels are hovering around the .500 mark, which leaves one question hanging over the entire sport: Will the Halos trade free-agent-to-be Shohei Ohtani?
Though we don’t yet know what the Angels’ decision will be, we aren’t about to let that stop us from trying to find the best trade partner for a potential Ohtani blockbuster.
We asked our MLB experts to play GM for nine teams that could potentially pull off a deal for Ohtani, making their best possible offers to land the two-way superstar, and we enlisted Jeff Passan to decide which proposals are worth the Angels’ time.
Sorry, you must have the wrong number
Proposed deal: RHP Shane Baz, 2B/3B Curtis Mead, 1B Xavier Isaac, RHP Marcus Johnson
An Ohtani trade wouldn’t constitute a rebuild for the Angels; they’d want to try to win again next season, and they’d be looking to add players who are (1) controllable for several years and (2) ready to contribute in 2024. That’s why this is the perfect package.
Baz has the ability to become one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet, and he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery for the start of 2024. Mead, No. 34 on Kiley McDaniel’s latest prospect rankings, boasts a nice combination of contact ability and power and can be the everyday second baseman next season, plus he provides insurance for an injury-prone Anthony Rendon at third base.
This is an aggressive package, especially when you consider the lower-level, higher-ceiling guys tacked on. But the Rays are a championship-caliber team that could use a boost and would never have a chance at a superstar player like this if not for the trade market. Who knows — maybe Ohtani, who has taken to analytics since working out at Driveline three winters ago, falls in love with the infrastructure in Tampa, and the Rays, trying to finalize a new stadium in the area, do the impossible and sign him long term. Wilder things have happened. For now, though, Ohtani for the rest of this season alone would place them head and shoulders above everybody else. — Alden Gonzalez
GM Jeff says … If Junior Caminero isn’t in this deal, I’m hanging up. As good as Baz could be, as well as Mead has hit, as much as Isaac’s numbers show he wasn’t an overdraft, as gaudy as Johnson’s strikeout to walk ratio may be (74-to-6), I need a no-doubt carrying piece. Caminero’s rocketing stock — .330/.386/.588 between High-A and Double-A as a just-turned-20-year-old — and his ability to play both positions on the left side of the infield make him a must in any trade. If not him, at least give me Carson Williams, also a shortstop and also mighty dynamic. The Rays have a robust enough farm system to get Ohtani, no doubt, but for an organization that knows it has no chance of re-signing him, the offer will only go so high, even if he is the sort of player who can get them to the World Series.
Proposed deal: CF Everson Pereira, SS Trey Sweeney, RHP Chase Hampton, RHP Drew Thorpe, 2B Jared Serna
I prioritized including multiple prospects who could be on a top 100 list this winter or next rather than just one top player and skewing most of the value toward (1) position players and (2) being in Double-A now or soon. Pereira (power-over-hit outfield tweener) and Sweeney (hit-over-power lefty-hitting shortstop) are probably both in the back half of the top 100 right now. Hampton and Thorpe are arrow-up starters with above-average stuff and enough feel to start, while Serna is a nice late-blooming power/speed performer. — Kiley McDaniel
GM Jeff says … This feels a lot like the Joey Gallo deal, which, in hindsight, turned out pretty well for the Rangers. But this is Shohei Ohtani, man. I want Spencer Jones, the leviathan outfielder. I want Jasson Dominguez, The Martian. The Yankees certainly can deal in bulk, and they’re the team that might benefit most from Ohtani’s presence. And because — unlike the Rays — they’re plenty capable of signing him as a free agent, this would be as much a showcase to him as it is a rental to the club. So, sorry, Fake Cashman. Get back to the drawing board and bring me something better.
Proposed deal: SS Ronny Mauricio, 3B Mark Vientos, C Kevin Parada, RHP Mike Vasil
You think owner Steve Cohen believes his team is too far out of contention? C’mon. DH Daniel Vogelbach and rotation filler David Peterson aren’t exactly All-Stars, and half of this team is over 34 years old. The Mets have no interest in melding these top prospects to the big club, and each is blocked. Ohtani can join former teammate Kodai Senga and see what it’s like in the top media market. Oh, and which team can spend the most money this winter? Yep. — Eric Karabell
GM Jeff says … I get it. There are a lot of names in this deal. But Mauricio and Vientos, for all their power, have troubling plate-discipline numbers, Parada is redundant with Logan O’Hoppe — a catcher in the midst of a breakout before a brutal left shoulder injury — and Vasil is more a back end of the rotation type than a top dude. This feels like a missed opportunity, frankly. If the Angels really were to move Ohtani, they could use him as the carrot to wheedle a team into taking on the rest of Rendon’s deal, which will cost about $127 million. Yes, Rendon has a no-trade clause, but he also could be in search of a change of scenery after 3½ middling years in Anaheim. Considering owner Arte Moreno operates on a finite budget, financial flexibility really would be meaningful as I try to rebuild this team post-Ohtani.
Call back when you’re ready to get serious
Proposed deal: OF/1B Heston Kjerstad, 3B Coby Mayo, LHP Cade Povich, LHP DL Hall
With the Rays faltering and the Rangers and Astros having some of the same pitching concerns as Baltimore, now is absolutely the time for the Orioles to make the biggest trade in franchise history since they acquired Frank Robinson. If they acquire Ohtani, they would be the best team in the American League — and no team is better equipped to make a deal than the Orioles, who have the best farm system in the majors. Heck, it’s so deep they won’t be able to play all these guys anyway. It’s more loaded in position players and the Angels probably want some pitching, so we’re including two hitting stars and two potential lefty starters. And, no, don’t even ask about Jackson Holliday. — David Schoenfield
GM Jeff says … So, how about Jackson Holliday? OK. Fine. But what you’ve got here isn’t enough for the Angels … and probably is too much for the Orioles. They have built their stout major league roster with patience, a plan and the understanding that as great as 2023 has been, their future competitiveness rests on a player-development run that’s almost too good to be true. Keeping their young core together is imperative. That said: I love Kjerstad’s left-handed swing, Mayo’s production is elite and in Povich and Hall you get two lefties with premium stuff. Perhaps plumbing the big league roster is in order. Colton Cowser is the sort of headliner who would make this more attractive.
Proposed deal: LHP Kyle Harrison, SS Marco Luciano, LHP/DH Reggie Crawford, OF Mike Yastrzemski
It’s painful to give up two top-20 prospects in Harrison and Luciano, but a San Francisco trade for Ohtani isn’t just about 2023. This gives the Giants a leg up on signing him long-term. We already know they have money to spend — see their pursuits of Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge for evidence. The Angels get back a few home runs in Yastrzemski while the Giants open up a spot for Joc Pederson to play the outfield when Ohtani is the designated hitter. Putting Crawford in the deal just seems right considering he’s doing an Ohtani in High-A. Yes, I’m proposing a two-way player gets traded for another two-way player. Fun. — Jesse Rogers
GM Jeff says … Not bad, but I want left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, too. And I suppose that’s my problem here. Trading for pitching prospects is scary, and this deal revolves around them. Yes, the Dodgers’ deal below does, too, but the volume — and Rushing being better than Luciano — exceeds the Giants’ offer, even if they were to include Whisenhunt. Remember, too, the Giants’ big league roster is extremely deep, and while I wouldn’t expect them to offer Patrick Bailey for a rental — even Ohtani — grabbing Luis Matos, Casey Schmitt or maybe Blake Sabol would turn this deal from an afterthought into a competitor.
Proposed deal: SS Cole Young, CF Jonatan Clase, RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Darren Bowen
I focused on trying to offer the single best prospect, because the quality depth that I’m dealing with here isn’t enough to just pick a couple players from the options at each prospect tier. It’s up for debate whether Young (or Harry Ford if you prefer) would be the best single prospect on the table, but that would at least be a discussion, with all of the players in that discussion ranking in the 26-50 tier of a top 100 list. Clase is an 80-grade runner with big tools and a big arrow up this season (now at Double-A), while Hancock is a former top-10 overall pick who is turning the corner (in Double-A) to becoming a rotation player as soon as 2024.
You get two obvious big leaguers and one intriguing lottery ticket, and none are more than two years away. Other than the already-good-in-the-big-leagues Bryan Woo, these are the best prospects I can offer who are close to the majors. Oh, and I’ll throw in the biggest arrow-up pitcher in the system this year in Bowen, who has two plus pitches and starter traits, but he’s a late-bloomer with limited pro innings. — McDaniel
GM Jeff says … This is a good offer, but if I’m the Angels — er, I am the Angels — I want a sure-thing leading man, and that doesn’t exist here. Seriously, you have a big league rotation full of productive starters, and you’re not going to even offer me one? Start with Logan Gilbert or George Kirby and you leap to the top of the list. Woo is plenty intriguing, too.
As for the names included: Young can really, really hit, Clase’s power-speed combo belies his short stature and Hancock and Bowen are both tooled-up arms. The problem with any Mariners offer, of course, is that they’re just not good enough this season to warrant selling the farm. So this trade would essentially be: a bunch of very promising players for the right to put the hard sell on Ohtani over a two-month period. And as ridiculous as this sounds, it’s the sort of gamble the Mariners might consider worth taking — and they wouldn’t be wrong. The “Come to Seattle” chants at the All-Star Game said everything the Mariners need to know. If there is anybody in baseball worth getting stupid over, it’s Shohei Ohtani.
Now we’re talking
Proposed deal: SS Jordan Lawlar, OF Alek Thomas, RHP Slade Cecconi, LHP Yu-Min Lin
The Diamondbacks are building something really nice here, so they’ll be reluctant to deal away future talent, but given Ohtani is favored to land with the Dodgers or Giants as a free agent, 2023 might actually be their best opportunity to win a division title over the next five years. Added bonus: They might be the only National League team with both the resources and motive to make a deal — the Braves and Phillies don’t have the prospects, for example, and the Dodgers could prefer to just sign Ohtani. The D-backs have two premium prospects in Lawlar and outfielder Druw Jones, and Geraldo Perdomo‘s breakout could allow them to include Lawlar in a deal. Thomas gives the Angels a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder who could be the next Kevin Kiermaier — great D, good enough at the plate. That’s a strong package right there, and we’ve included two solid pitching prospects as well. — Schoenfield
GM Jeff says … This is a strong offer — and I’m still inclined to say no. While Lawlar is a top-25 prospect, some scouts have doubts that he’s the sort of player around whom a deal of this magnitude could be built. Lin is a favorite, already up to Double-A having just turned 20 years old, but Thomas simply hasn’t hit in 600 big league plate appearances and Cecconi is faltering in Triple-A. If you want to consider shortstops Blaze Alexander and Jansel Luis in the deal, I’d be a lot more willing to listen.
Proposed deal: RHP Brock Porter, RHP Jack Leiter, UT Ezequiel Duran, 2B Justin Foscue, OF Yeison Morrobel
It’ll take a lot for any team to pry Ohtani away from the Angels, especially within the division. It’ll almost assuredly require at least three of this deep farm system’s top six prospects, a budding big league star and a promising younger pitching prospect. Might it take six players? Perhaps, but Texas has more of an in-season rental feel among prospective Ohtani destinations, which is why OF Evan Carter and SP Owen White are off-limits. Or, at least, that’s the part that’s for Jeff’s ears. The part that’s not: If it needs to be White in place of Porter or Leiter, or SS Luisangel Acuna in place of Foscue, so be it (though probably not both). When you’ve got a chance to win, you take it, and Ohtani would fill the injured Jacob deGrom‘s shoes as staff ace nicely. Ideally, we keep Jeff on the line and haggle on those final pieces. — Tristan Cockcroft
GM Jeff says … Now we’re starting to talk. Perhaps some don’t know much about Duran — who, incidentally, came over in the Gallo deal — but he’s quite a good big leaguer already. He just turned 24, isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season, is hitting .300/.336/.514 and is capable of playing every infield position and both corner-outfield spots. He’s the best current player offered so far, and Alden’s point about the Angels wanting close-to-the-big-leagues contributors makes this deal very attractive. Foscue could be a productive major leaguer right now. Porter is the best pitching prospect in Texas’ system. Leiter has the pedigree. Want a definitive yes? Flip Morrobel for Sebastian Walcott, the 17-year-old Bahamian shortstop who is wowing scouts as he destroys the Arizona Complex League.
You had me at hello
Proposed deal: OF Josue De Paula, RHP Nick Nastrini, RHP Ryan Pepiot, C Dalton Rushing, RHP Emmet Sheehan, RHP Gavin Stone
I’m not listening to suggestions that we can just wait until the winter to blow the Ohtani market out of the water. I want him in Chavez Ravine and I want him now. There is a title out there to be won — this season — and Ohtani could well be the player who gets us over the top.
But make no mistake: This is not a mere short-term splash. We have been angling for this player since last season ended. Getting him now only enhances our ability to keep him for the rest of his Hall of Fame career. How is he going to resist a market-value offer from the Dodgers after a deep postseason run that unfolds in a setting that doesn’t require him to move house, with a club that has more than a decade of proof that every single season we are in it to win it? I don’t want him to experience the playoffs with another team. And I don’t worry about our system — it’s deep. Our scouting and development operations are fecund. We are the Dodgers. Resistance is futile. — Bradford Doolittle
GM Jeff says … Um. Yes. I almost feel bad about this, because the Dodgers would not do this in real life, but you know what? That’s cool, because it serves as a wonderful illustration of how good their farm system actually is. Rushing might be the best player offered in any deal, and while the O’Hoppe factor exists, you don’t say no to a player with his talent. Even if only two of the pitchers pan out, the upside is so high — from Sheehan’s fastball to Stone’s and Pepiot’s changeups to Nastrini’s slider — that you absolutely bet on any of them. And to get De Paula, the 18-year-old who is more than holding his own in full-season ball, as an add-on?
Perhaps this offer is a function of the reality, which is that there’s almost no chance Moreno ever would move Ohtani to the Dodgers. Then again, however rough those optics would be — especially if Ohtani fell in love with the team and signed there this winter because he so enjoyed his post-deadline time — taking six elite players, all with six years of major league control, is a far better consolation prize than not dealing him and losing him in free agency for a middling draft pick after the second round.
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David Schoenfield
The early returns from the MLB trade deadline are filtering in. The dog days of August are challenging pitching staffs. The Boston Red Sox are humming, the New York Yankees are stumbling and the New York Mets might be crumbling. Yes, it’s going to be a fun stretch drive.
How do the postseason races stand? Let’s break down the contenders into playoff tiers.
Tier I: The locks
Biggest surprise: Andrew Vaughn has been raking since coming over from the White Sox in a trade in which Chicago was clearing him off its roster. Rhys Hoskins might return from the injured list later this month, but Vaughn has hit so well that Hoskins has likely been Wally Pipp-ed and relegated to part-time DH duty (depending on how often Christian Yelich can play the outfield). Vaughn has — so far — provided some much-needed power, which had been the Brewers’ only weakness.
Injury to watch: Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is out because of a shin contusion but should be back soon, and the Brewers probably welcomed the break to limit his innings anyway. So keep an eye on Jackson Chourio, who is likely out a couple more weeks because of a strained hamstring. Chourio had been red-hot in July, with an OPS over 1.000 before hitting the IL.
Player to watch: Brandon Woodruff. The one-time Brewers ace hadn’t pitched since September 2023 before finally returning in July and has delivered six excellent starts with a 2.29 ERA, 45 strikeouts and just six walks.
His fastball velocity isn’t where it was before his shoulder injury, but Woodruff has been locating where he wants, as batters are hitting .111 against his four-seamer and .156 against his sinker. A playoff rotation with Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Quinn Priester, who has won 10 consecutive decisions, looks like one that could deliver the Brewers their first World Series title.
Biggest surprise: Well, there are two ways to look at this. The Dodgers are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto their only starter who has been in the rotation all season. Sitting in first place despite those injury issues can be viewed as a pleasant surprise. Or maybe it’s a bad surprise that a team that was a huge favorite to run away with the National West has to fight for the division title.
The Dodgers have essentially used a six-man rotation all season, with pitchers making just seven starts on four days of rest. Yamamoto hasn’t started on all four days of rest all season. With the Dodgers battling the Padres for the division crown, will manager Dave Roberts go to a five-man rotation? What about in the postseason, when four days of rest is generally the norm if you want to use just your top four starters?
Injury to watch: Just one? While the rotation is slowly getting healthier (Blake Snell is back), late-game relievers Tanner Scott (elbow) and Kirby Yates (back) are on the IL.
Player to watch: With Mookie Betts seemingly mired in seasonlong mediocrity, the Dodgers will need Freddie Freeman to heat up again. The first baseman was hitting .374 with a 1.078 OPS through May but then hit .226 with just two home runs in June and July. In late July, he said he fixed something in his swing, and he hit .400 with three home runs in his first 14 games after that proclamation. If Freeman is back, the offense might be the best in the majors again.
Biggest surprise: The Blue Jays were 26-28 on May 27 but have the second-best record in the majors since, and journeyman starter Eric Lauer has been a key reason. After not pitching in the majors in 2024 and finishing the season in Korea, he joined the rotation for good on June 11 and has gone 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA since then, with the Jays winning nine of his 11 starts.
Injury to watch: The Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract after a 44-homer season with the Orioles, but he has been out since May 29 because of a shoulder injury and hit just .179 before that. Getting back a productive Santander would help boost an outfield that has been mix-and-match all season.
Player to watch: The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber from Cleveland at the trade deadline, getting a pitcher still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He should have two more rehab starts before he’s ready to join the rotation — and the Blue Jays will be counting on him to be in the playoff rotation.
Depending on how Bieber performs, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to leapfrog Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter. Lauer and Max Scherzer will be in that mix, with Chris Bassitt hanging around as well. That rotation depth is why the Jays rate as the heavy favorite to win the division — and at the minimum look like a playoff lock.
Biggest surprise: Everyone knew about Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s defense, but certainly nobody expected him to hit for this kind of power and turn into an MVP candidate in his first full season. He’s doing it despite the highest swing rate in the majors, which gives him one of the worst chase rates. He would have the lowest OBP for an MVP winner. Still, he had his highest monthly batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.637) in July, although he’s slumping in August.
Injury to watch: The big one was Justin Steele going down for the season because of Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is still out because of a calf strain. The Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the deadline to help the rotation, but he lasted two innings in his first start before going down because of a sore shoulder, and his availability the rest of the season is unknown.
Player to watch: Rookie starter Cade Horton is emerging as a force. He joined the rotation in May and had a 4.80 ERA through his first two months but has allowed no runs in five of his past six starts, including his past four in a row. Coming off an injury-plagued 2024, the Cubs are being very conservative with the 23-year-old’s pitch counts (fewer than 90 pitches in his past four outings), but he has been efficient enough to give them five or six innings.
Some of Horton’s peripheral numbers — so-so strikeout rate, not a ton of swing-and-miss — don’t necessarily match up with all the zeros, but he’s limiting hard contact. With Soroka out, Horton is vital to the Cubs’ hopes of running down the Brewers in the NL Central.
Biggest surprise: Kyle Schwarber hitting a lot of home runs is hardly a surprise — he has reached 40 three times — but Schwarber as a potential MVP candidate? That wasn’t on anyone’s preseason scorecard. OK, maybe that’s still a long shot given that Crow-Armstrong’s all-around value gives the Cubs outfielder a big edge in WAR and Shohei Ohtani is now pitching to go with his Schwarber-like offensive numbers. Still, Schwarber looks unstoppable at the plate right now and leads the NL in home runs and RBIs as his OPS inches closer to 1.000.
Injury to watch: Aaron Nola has been on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib and has made a couple of rehab starts, so he should be returning to the rotation soon. The Phillies haven’t really missed him because of their pitching depth, but a healthy Nola will bump Taijuan Walker from the rotation, plus he could leap over Jesus Luzardo as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: Trea Turner hit well for three months to begin the season but went homerless in July, and his OBP dropped way off. At his best, he’s an offensive force who hits for average and some power while setting the table for Bryce Harper and Schwarber behind him. He can also have spells when he starts chasing too much and the offense dries up. The Phillies are a lock to get in, but they need the best version of Turner down the stretch to hold off the Mets in the NL East.
Tier II: Should get in
What they need to do to become a lock: The Tigers seemed like a lock when they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central before the All-Star break while playing like the best team in baseball. Then they lost 12 out of 13 games, and Cleveland got hot. The Guardians are at least close enough to put a little fear in the Tigers.
The lineup scuffled in July, but the bullpen still feels like the key here. The Tigers are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA and 28th in reliever strikeout rate. It’s not good when you’re ranked with the Nationals and Rockies. They added some reinforcements at the trade deadline, but Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero aren’t solutions.
Injury to watch: The Tigers signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract in the offseason, but the 37-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of hip inflammation. After his first rehab stint was cut short in June, he’s trying to get healthy enough to provide a boost to the rotation.
The Tigers traded for Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack, but Cobb could be in the same scenario he was with Cleveland last season, when he made just three regular-season starts but was in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: It has been an odd season for Riley Greene, whose strikeout rate is over 32% and whose walk rate has plummeted from last season (11% to 6%). The home run and RBI numbers are there, although he has been in a deep slump since the All-Star break. Can he be consistent enough to lead the Detroit offense and deliver in crunch time, or will the better pitchers in the postseason exploit his swing-and-miss tendencies?
What they need to do to become a lock: In 2022, the Padres made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader and eventually reaching the NLCS. This deadline, general manager A.J. Preller was again on a mission, trading top prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller to strengthen what was already perhaps the game’s best bullpen. Preller also filled some holes in the lineup with the additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin.
The Padres have the deepest bullpen and a deeper lineup. Will that be enough to cover their lack of power (next to last in the majors in home runs) and a middle-of-the-pack rotation (getting Dylan Cease on a roll would be nice)? Maybe. But it’s clear that to not just lock up that playoff spot but also chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, Padres manager Mike Shildt will have to ride those bullpen arms.
Injury to watch: On Saturday, Michael King made his first start since May 18 after being out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. If King is at full health, having him and Nick Pivetta lead the rotation would pair nicely with that loaded bullpen.
Player to watch: Second-year center fielder Jackson Merrill hasn’t replicated his rookie power numbers, and his OBP cratered in July, when he hit .196/.262/.304. The early returns are better this month, and though the Padres upgraded their offensive depth, they need Merrill to be a force.
New York Mets
What they need to do to become a lock: It’s not so easy to buy your way into the playoffs, is it? The Mets correctly upgraded a struggling bullpen by adding Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto, but now it’s the offense that is going through some rough times. Despite adding Juan Soto and getting a much better season from Pete Alonso (he has already surpassed last year’s RBI total), the Mets are scoring fewer runs per game than in 2024.
The Mets were 21-10 at the end of April with a plus-54 run differential. Since then, they’ve gone 42-45 with a minus-24 run differential. Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have scuffled of late, and Soto has been terrible all season with runners in scoring position (.190/.331/.360). There’s too much talent here for the Mets to miss the playoffs.
Injury to watch: Tylor Megill, out with an elbow sprain, is the one injured player who could return and help, whether in the rotation or the bullpen.
Player to watch: Soto. It’s time for him to put the team on his back.
Tier III: Have work to do
How they make the playoffs: Hit better with runners in scoring position. The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS — but they’re just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Injury to watch: Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) has made two rehab starts. He threw four scoreless innings in the first outing but served up three home runs in the second. His fastball velocity was sitting at 96. He could be in line for two more starts before potentially replacing Logan Evans in the rotation — and giving the Mariners their projected five-man group for the first time all season.
Player to watch: Naylor was acquired for his bat, not his legs, but he is running like Rickey Henderson since joining the M’s, swiping 10 bases in his first 13 games — pretty remarkable for a player who ranks in the third percentile of all players in running speed. He left Thursday’s game because of some discomfort after a swing, but the Mariners said it’s likely just a day-to-day situation.
Boston Red Sox
How they make the playoffs: Keep pitching like they have. While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA. Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.
Injury to watch: Though he’s not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness. He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.
Player to watch: Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (escalators could bring the total value up to $230 million). Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn’t shown up yet, in part because he’s still hitting a lot of balls on the ground. He’s already good, but maybe he’ll be great down the stretch.
How they make the playoffs: Have Carlos Correa turn back the clock. In a shocking trade deadline deal, the Astros reacquired their former shortstop to play third base with Isaac Paredes injured. Correa was having a poor season with the Twins, with the worst OPS of his career, although he has hit better in his first week with the Astros. With an offense that has been forced to play a lot of Triple-A fillers because of injuries, Correa could provide a huge boost.
Injury to watch: Will Yordan Alvarez make it back? The superstar DH has played just 29 games, none since May 2, because of a right hand fracture. He has been taking batting practice in Florida. Meanwhile, Paredes remains out because of a serious hamstring injury, choosing rehab with the hope of returning this season. Center fielder Jake Meyers is still rehabbing a calf strain.
Player to watch: The Astros have struggled to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez because of the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti just returned from the 60-day IL and allowed 11 hits and five runs in 3⅔ innings. He had a strong second half last season, so the Astros would love for him to step up as a strong No. 3 starter.
New York Yankees
How they make the playoffs: Hit better. Field better. Pitch better. Run the bases better. The Yankees are 20-31 since June 13, losing 10 games in the standings and dropping from first to third place.
It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added. Maybe David Bednar‘s five-out save the other day will at least settle down the closer situation, as he’s likely to take over that role from Devin Williams.
Injury to watch: Aaron Judge is back from the flexor strain in his elbow that sidelined him for 10 days, although still serving only as a DH. It shouldn’t affect his offense, but the Yankees would love to get him back on the field defensively so they can use Giancarlo Stanton, who had been hot, as the DH. Stanton is unplayable on defense, so he’s limited to pinch-hitting duties with Judge occupying the DH spot.
Player to watch: If Judge is producing, the Yankees will score. The bullpen has the talent to get hot down the stretch. But suddenly, the rotation has some concerns as well. Carlos Rodon has walked 15 over his past 20 innings across four starts. Even going back to June 8, his ERA is just 4.50 after a great first two months. Is he a reliable No. 2 starter behind Max Fried?
Tier IV: The long shots
How do they get in? Continue to ride Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, figure out the closer situation and have the offense keep hitting like it did in July, when it was better than it had been all season.
Journeyman Robert Garcia had been closing of late, but he gave up two critical home runs to the Mariners last weekend and now that role is once again in flux. The Rangers are done with the Mariners, but their six remaining games against the Astros loom large.
How do they get in? The Guardians looked out of it when they were 40-48 in early July, with the Tigers seemingly running away with the division. But Cleveland has gone 21-8 since then, and the upcoming schedule is pretty soft as they finish this series against the White Sox and then play the Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Six games against the Tigers in September means the AL Central might not be decided until then. The offense, hitting just .224 through July 6, has averaged more than five runs per game since then, with a lot more of the timely hitting we saw last season. It helps that Jose Ramirez got hot right at that time.
Tier V: The really long shots
How do they get in? They’re the seventh team in a race where only six teams get in, so they’ll need to get some help, which the Mets seem to be accommodating right now. But the Reds also need to get the rotation back in a groove.
After posting a 3.69 ERA in April and 3.17 in May, the rotation ERA rose to 4.52 in June and 4.16 in July, but there are some positive developments. Hunter Greene is about ready to return from his rehab, and Zack Littell had a terrific first start with the Reds after coming over in a deadline deal, allowing one run in seven innings with a season-high 15 swing-and-misses.
How do they get in? If the Reds need a little help, the Giants will need a lot of help. They blew up the bullpen, which had been the strength of the team, by trading Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, so we’ll see whether they have enough depth there. Same with the rotation. With Landen Roupp injured and Hayden Birdsong demoted to the minors, the rotation features recent call-ups Carson Whisenhunt and Kai-Wei Teng. Justin Verlander has reeled off three good starts in a row, although each was limited to five innings. They’ll need those three to pitch well behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
How do they get in? In the American League, anything still feels possible. Just look at last year, when the Tigers were already buried at this point, only to reel off an improbable run to the postseason. The Royals would need to leap past three teams to get a wild card, but if the Yankees keep fading, all it would take is a little hot streak to jump past Texas and Cleveland as well.
The Royals will have to score more runs, but the offense had its best month, and it has had a few big offensive games in August. Bobby Witt Jr. has had another strong season, but what if he really heats up like he did last July and August?
How do they get in? They’ve run hot and cold all season, going 16-12 in May and 17-10 in June before stumbling to 7-18 in July. The key will be the offense, which scored 151 runs in June but just 98 in July. Junior Caminero saw his OPS drop 150 points; Jonathan Aranda dropped over 100 points and then fractured his wrist; Brandon Lowe got injured and had just two RBIs in nine games (he’s back now); and Josh Lowe hit .186. The odds are slim, but we’ve learned to never count out the Rays.
How do they get in? The starting pitching will have to improve, as the Cardinals rank 25th in rotation ERA and 29th in strikeout rate. That suggests improvement — at least enough to produce a late surge — is unlikely. Oh, the offense also tanked in July.
It looks as if it will be a third straight season without making the playoffs. No wonder attendance has declined to its lowest per-game average since 1995 (not including 2021) and because that was the post-strike year, the lowest in a non-strike-affected year since 1984.
How do they get in? When the Marlins swept the Yankees last weekend to climb to .500, they momentarily offered a glimpse of hope, climbing six games out of a wild card. Then they lost three of four, so their playoff odds have dipped back to around 1%. You never know, of course, and maybe Sandy Alcantara will suddenly reel off eight Cy Young-caliber starts in a row.
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