Ukraine war: Why Putin’s mistrust of generals is making his forces weaker

Published

2 years ago

July 23, 2023

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Ukraine’s counteroffensive is entering its seventh week and even the most ardent optimists admit that it is progressing slower than anticipated and Ukrainian forces have – as yet – failed to break through the established layered Russian defences.

But, Russia is also facing significant challenges.

Vladimir Putin is evidently struggling to re-establish command and control of Russia’s military forces following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ill-fated rebellion.

Is the current turmoil in Russian senior military leadership a sideshow to the brutal frontline battles, or is Mr Putin’s house of cards on the brink of collapse?

Ukraine war latest

Credible warfighting capability is a blend of core ingredients.

Equipment is important, as is training, but the ability to “get people to fight” – the moral component of fighting power – is widely believed to be the most important.

The moral component is focused on morale, integrity, values, and legitimacy to ensure soldiers demonstrate physical and moral courage in the “face of mortal peril”.

Leadership – and followership – are central to the development of the moral component, and the West invests considerable time and resources across all ranks of its services to educate, nurture and mature these battle-winning skills.

Trust and confidence in military leaders, whether at a relatively junior rank or the most senior, enables commanders to articulate their intent, and empower those below to use their initiative, courage, and ultimately sacrifice, to achieve those aims.

But this is not the Russian modus-operandi.

In the Russian military, there is no empowerment – senior officers direct, and soldiers do.

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Infantry are seen as disposable – pawns in a brutal battle – and any latitude to “interpret” orders would provide potential justification for anarchy, which is a constant fear for the Russian military hierarchy. This creates animosity and contempt for command.

And following Prigozhin’s abortive rebellion, Mr Putin will not know which of his commanders he can trust, and which he should fear.

Mr Putin might have been expected to purge his senior military commanders to eliminate any enduring threat and serve as a clear lesson to those selected to replace them. However, his priority is to retain his grip on power, and he values loyalty over competence.

Replacing General Valery Gerasimov and Defence Secretary Sergei Shoigu might improve Russia’s operational effectiveness but would risk enemies closing in on Mr Putin’s seat of power.

Meanwhile, Mr Putin is working through his senior military commanders to flush out those who might have been complicit in the rebellion; General Sergey Surovikin (head of Russian aerospace forces) had a close relationship with Prigozhin, and it is no coincidence that he has not been seen since. One can only imagine his fate.

But even loyal generals are disposable, particularly if they seek to speak “truth to power”.

Major General Ivan Popov, who oversaw forces fighting in southern Ukraine, has apparently been relieved of his duties after speaking out about the problems faced by his troops.

Gen Popov was widely known for doing his best to avoid unnecessary losses – unlike many other commanders who were eager to sacrifice their soldiers to report successes.

Strong and decisive leadership is required if Russian success in Ukraine is to be achieved. Instead, a culture of suspicion and fear permeates all levels of the military – even into the Kremlin – as the ramifications of Prigozhin’s abortive rebellion continue to reverberate.

Russia’s “crisis of command” might not directly impact Russia’s immediate frontline defences, as soldiers there have no choice but to fight or be shot as deserters by their colleagues.

However, if Ukraine does manage to break through the Russian defensive line and the floodgates open, leadership shortcomings will be exposed, and Russian courage, bravery and initiative will be in very short supply.

But first, Ukraine needs a breakthrough. And soon!

World

US ‘doesn’t have high expectations’ for Ukraine-Russia negotiations, Marco Rubio admits

Published

37 mins ago

May 16, 2025

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US 'doesn't have high expectations' for Ukraine-Russia negotiations, Marco Rubio admits

The United States “doesn’t have high expectations” for negotiations in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine to end the war, America’s top diplomat has admitted.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said he did not think there would be a “breakthrough” in discussions until Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet to discuss it directly.

Russia and Ukraine are preparing to hold their first direct peace talks in three years, but the negotiations will take place in the aftermath of Mr Putin declining Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s offer of an in-person meeting.

It came after Mr Putin proposed direct negotiations with Ukraine over the war “without any preconditions” after the “coalition of the willing” countries threatened Russia with fresh sanctions if it failed to take part in a 30-day ceasefire beginning on Monday. In response Mr Zelenskyy had called on Mr Putin to meet him in Istanbul.

Ukraine war latest: Trump teases ‘destination unknown’

The Ukrainian president said he was sending a team headed by his defence minister, from the Turkish capital Ankara to Istanbul, to meet the Ukrainian delegation, though he said Moscow’s team did not include “anyone who actually makes decisions”.

Mr Zelenskyy accused Moscow of not taking efforts to end the conflict seriously by sending a low-level negotiating team he described as “a theatre prop”.

Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who is heading Moscow’s delegation, said: “The task of these direct negotiations with Ukraine is to establish long-term peace sooner or later by eliminating the root causes of this conflict.”

He later said he expected Ukraine’s representatives to turn up for the beginning of discussions on Friday morning.

Mr Rubio said he will meet Ukraine’s delegation on Friday, adding: “It’s my assessment that I don’t think we’re going to have a breakthrough here until the president [Mr Trump] and President Putin interact directly on this topic.”

The team sent by Russia “does not indicate a breakthrough”, he said, before going on to say: “I hope tomorrow the news says they’ve agreed a ceasefire. But it’s not my assessment.”

He was echoing remarks made by Mr Trump earlier in the day, when he said: “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together.”

Asked if any plans were under way for a meeting between the US and Russian leaders, Mr Rubio said Mr Trump was going to make a decision once his trip to the Middle East finishes.

Tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed on both sides in the war since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, along with more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, according to the UN.

Russian forces are preparing for a fresh military offensive, Ukrainian government and Western military analysts have warned.

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Sir Keir Starmer accused Mr Putin of “standing in the way of peace”, with the prime minister saying: “There was only one country that started this conflict – that was Russia. That was Putin. There’s only one country now standing in the way of peace – that is Russia, that is Putin.”

World

Iran ‘ready to make nuclear concessions’ – as Trump asks for Qatar’s help getting a deal

Published

19 hours ago

May 15, 2025

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Iran 'ready to make nuclear concessions' - as Trump asks for Qatar's help getting a deal

A top Iranian official has said the country is prepared to make a number of concessions related to its nuclear programme, in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

It comes as Donald Trump, during his tour of the Middle East, urged Qatar to wield its influence over Iran to persuade it to give up its nuclear programme.

Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke to Sky News’ US partner NBC News.

He said Tehran was willing to commit to never making nuclear weapons again, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, which can be weaponised, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use and allow international inspectors to supervise the process.

This was in exchange for the prospect of the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on the country.

Asked if Iran would sign an agreement today if those conditions were met, Mr Shamkhani told NBC: “Yes.”

His comments are the clearest public indication of what Iran hopes to get out of a deal and their willingness to do one.

“It’s still possible. If the Americans act as they say, for sure we can have better relations,” Mr Shamkhani added.

However, he expressed frustration at continued threats from the US president, describing them as “all barbed wire” and no olive branch.

Similarly, he warned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might try to derail the deal.

Trump goes to the Middle East

Elsewhere, on the second of three stops on his tour of the Middle East, Mr Trump appealed to Qatar for help in the process.

He urged the country to use its influence over Iran to persuade its leadership to reach a deal with the US and dial back its rapidly advancing nuclear programme.

Mr Trump made the comments during a state dinner.

He said: “I hope you can help me with the Iran situation.

“It’s a perilous situation, and we want to do the right thing.”

Over the years, Qatar has played the role of intermediary between the US and Iran and its proxies – including talks with Hamas as its 19-month war with Israel grinds on.

This comes after Mr Trump told a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this week that he wants “to make a deal”.

However, he said that as part of any agreement, Iran must end its support of proxy groups throughout the Middle East.

A nuclear Iran

Mr Trump has always said Iran could not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.

While Iran has always denied doing so, the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has warned that Tehran has enough enriched uranium close to weapons-grade quality for nearly six bombs.

The US and Iran reached a nuclear deal in 2015, under Barack Obama, in which Iran agreed to drastically reduce its stockpile of uranium and limit enriching up to 3.67%.

But Mr Trump scrapped that deal in his first term.

Today, Iran enriches up to 60%, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels.

Washington and Tehran have engaged in four rounds of talks since early April.

World

Guests used furniture as ‘improvised ladder’ to escape capsized Bayesian superyacht

Published

19 hours ago

May 15, 2025

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Guests used furniture as 'improvised ladder' to escape capsized Bayesian superyacht

Guests used furniture as an “improvised ladder” to try to escape after the Bayesian superyacht capsized last year, a new safety report has said.

The interim report by the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) contains the fullest account yet of how the superyacht capsized and the last-ditch efforts of those on board to get out.

It also found that the boat may have been vulnerable to high winds, with gusts exceeding 70 knots (80.05mph) on the day of the incident.

These “vulnerabilities” were said to be “unknown to either the owner or the crew of Bayesian” as they were not included in the stability information book carried on board.

The boat was owned by British tech tycoon Mike Lynch.

He was among seven people – including his 18-year-old daughter Hannah – who died when it sank on 19 August last year, off the coast of Sicily during a storm.

Work is now underway to recover the ship, although progress has been hampered after a diver recently died during salvage efforts.

MAIB principal investigator Simon Graves previously said it’s expected to be lifted and brought to shore by the end of May.

Chaos on board

The report, published Thursday, detailed the events of 18 and 19 August last year, how the Bayesian and its crew acted as a storm swept in and began tilting the boat overnight.

After the crew was woken up by the strong winds and waves, the captain prepared to manoeuvre the ship, the report said.

But winds were said to have suddenly spiked around 4.06am, causing the boat to “violently” tip 90 degrees in less than 15 seconds.

“People, furniture and loose items fell across the deck,” the report said, adding that in the carnage that followed, at least five people, including Mr Lynch and the captain, were injured.

One of the crew members, who had been keeping a lookout when the storm struck, was tossed overboard into the sea.

After much of the furniture was thrown across the deck and uprooted from the rooms, two of the guests were forced to use “drawers as an improvised ladder” to escape one room.

Others similarly climbed up the walls to get out as water began flooding in over the rails, and entering the inside of the ship.

Across the capsized vessel, the report explained how various groups scrambled to escape.

At the port forward wheelhouse door, one of the deckhands who had been on the lookout that night helped lift two stewards onto the upper deck.

Not seeing anyone else inside, they jumped into the sea, and the door was seemingly shut behind them.

According to the report, with Bayesian now sinking, a number of guests and crew found themselves trapped in an air pocket by the same door.

It was only with the help of an injured guest on the outside that they were able to open the door and escape.

Elsewhere, the chief officer had found Mr Lynch and “pushed [him] through cascading water” to get him to the captain.

The pair managed to evacuate two other guests this way.

However, amid the rough weather, the chief officer was swept to the back of the saloon.

The report details his precarious escape, jumping into the water, diving down and opening the sliding doors in the room to be able to swim free of the ship.

The report said the captain organised the “abandonment” of the ship, and as they floated there, some guests had to use cushions as improvised life rafts.

Inquest proceedings in the UK are looking at the deaths of Mr Lynch and his daughter, as well as Morgan Stanley International bank chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, who were all British nationals.

The others who died in the sinking were US lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda Morvillo, and Canadian-Antiguan national Recaldo Thomas, who was working as a chef on the vessel.

Fifteen people, including Mr Lynch’s wife Angela Bacares, were rescued.

The fatal boat trip was a celebration of Mr Lynch’s acquittal in a US trial after he was accused of a massive fraud over the sale of Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard in 2011.