Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on July 18, 2023 in New York City.
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This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
More mixed markets U.S. stocks closed Friday mixed. The Nasdaq Composite was the only major index to fall. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday as well. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.4% to start the week, but Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.22% on the back of the country’s seventh straight month of business activity expansion.
Booming U.S. economy? Morgan Stanley has made a “sizeable upward revision” to its estimates for the U.S. economy. The bank expects GDP to grow 1.9% for the first half of this year, almost four times the original forecast of 0.5%. For the second half, the bank thinks GDP will grow 1.3%, compared with 0.6%. Joe Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is “driving a boom in large-scale infrastructure,” wrote Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley.
Demand for oil Oil prices might spike in the second half of the year as supply fails to keep up with demand, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum Joseph McMonigle told CNBC. “India and China combined will make up 2 million barrels a day of demand pick-up in the second half of this year,” he said. However, McMonigle thinks OPEC+ will respond to a “big supply-imbalance.”
What Foxconn’s failure says Foxconn’s recent decision to pull out of a joint venture to establish semiconductor manufacturing in India highlights how difficult it is for new players to enter the industry. High barriers to entry like lack of specialized labor, reliance on third-party technology and intellectual property mean TSMC’s 59% market share is likely to remain unchallenged for now.
[PRO] Fully packed week This week’s packed full of economic data releases and earnings reports, and will see the Federal Reserve meet to decide on the path of U.S. interest rates. CNBC Pro’s Sarah Min breaks down what analysts are expecting and how they are positioning their portfolios to deal with the heavy week.
First, the numbers. The S&P and the Dow were essentially flat, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.22% Friday. (Technically, the Dow squeezed out a 0.01% gain to give it a 10-day winning streak, but that figure’s so negligible I don’t think it’s worth making a big fuss over it.)
On a weekly basis, the S&P advanced 0.79%, the Nasdaq fell 0.57% — but the Dow gained an impressive 2.08%.
A large part of the Dow’s showing was because of how the index is composed and calculated. It includes just 30 stocks, ostensibly chosen to represent the broader U.S. economy. To give an example, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase represent banks; Apple and Microsoft show up for technology; Nike and Procter & Gamble stand in for consumer goods.
The Dow’s other key difference from the S&P and Nasdaq is that it is price-weighted, that is, the more expensive the stock, the bigger its influence on the index. Conversely, the other two major indexes are capitalization-weighted, meaning that the higher the total value of the company’s total shares, the more sway it has in moving the index.
Now, let’s look at Friday’s stock movements.
Nvidia slumped 2.66%. It has a market capitalization of over $1 trillion. Unsurprising, then, that it had the biggest negative impact on both the S&P and Nasdaq. The Dow? The index doesn’t even include Nvidia, so it was spared.
The Dow, on the other hand, benefited from gains in firms like UnitedHealth and Goldman Sachs. Their stock prices are high — around $500 and $350 per share, respectively — but their total market capitalizations are comparatively low. Those gains wouldn’t register much on the S&P and Nasdaq, but boosted the Dow.
What does this all mean? Honestly speaking: Not much. According to CNBC’s calculations, over the past 15 years, the Dow and the S&P have moved in the same direction 94% of the time. So while it’s true the major indexes have diverged as of late — this week aside, the Nasdaq is leading by a 34% increase for the year, the S&P 18% and the Dow a meagre 6% — in the long run, it shouldn’t really matter what index you’re tracking. The lesson here? Don’t take short-term blips as long-term trends.
On today’s fleet-focused episode of Quick Charge, we talk about a hot topic in today’s trucking industry called, “the messy middle,” explore some of the ways legacy truck brands are working to reduce fuel consumption and increase freight efficiency. PLUS: we’ve got ReVolt Motors’ CEO and founder Gus Gardner on-hand to tell us why he thinks his solution is better.
You know, for some people.
We’ve also got a look at the Kenworth Supertruck 2 concept truck, revisit the Revoy hybrid tandem trailer, and even plug a great article by CCJ’s Jeff Seger, who is asking some great questions over there. All this and more – enjoy!
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
Got news? Let us know! Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.
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Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
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March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
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However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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