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More than nine million people in England will be living with a major illness by 2040 – placing “additional demand” on the NHS and having “significant implications” for other public services, a report has warned.

The number of adults with conditions such as cancer, diabetes and kidney disease will rise by 2.5 million – an increase of 37% compared with 2019 figures, researchers said.

The analysis was part of a four-year project led by the Health Foundation’s Real Centre in partnership with the University of Liverpool, focusing on ill health in the adult population.

Researchers believe “managing these pressures is achievable with careful planning” and the “challenge of an ageing population” was an issue faced “across the globe”.

The number of people living with major disease in just over 15 years will reach 9.1 million, from almost one in six of the adult population in 2019 to nearly one in five.

Some 80% of the 2.5 million increase will be in people aged 70 or over as the “baby boomers reach old age and life expectancy increases”.

Cases of dementia are expected to rise 45% by 2040, heart failure by 92%, cancer by 31%, diabetes by 49%, chronic pain by 32% and anxiety or depression by 16%.

At the age of 70, people will have an average of three long-term conditions, rising to more than five by the age of 85, researchers said.

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Improvements in some of the main causes of poor health – such as less people smoking – will be “offset by the impact” of obesity as people who have been obese for long periods reach old age.

Director of the Real Centre, Anita Charlesworth, said: “The challenge of an ageing population with rising levels of major illness is not unique to the NHS.

“Countries across the globe face the same pressures. How well prepared we are to meet the challenge is what will set us apart.

“Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure.

“But with one in five people projected to be living with major illness in less than two decades’ time, the impact will extend well beyond the health service and have significant implications for other public services, the labour market and the public finances.”

Lead economist at the Real Centre, Toby Watt, added: “It is crucial to emphasise that these are projections, not forecasts, which are designed to support policymakers in preparing for the future.

“The rise in people living with major illness will not occur overnight.

“Managing these pressures is achievable with careful planning, investment and changes in how care is delivered.”

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Environmental impact of oil tanker collision depends on at least three things

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Environmental impact of oil tanker collision depends on at least three things

The crash involving a cargo ship and oil tanker off the East Yorkshire coast is bad news for the sea, fish and air in the area. What we don’t know yet is quite how bad it will be.

That depends on a few things – but the speed of the collision, clouds of filthy black smoke from the fires and the leaked fuel are certainly worrying.

Firstly, it matters what was on board those two massive vessels.

Follow live: Jet fuel spilling into sea after tanker collision

Tanker collision

Analytics firm Vortexa estimates the 183m-long tanker was carrying about 130,000 barrels of jet fuel (kerosene), which is now leaking into the sea.

Jet fuel is not as sticky or viscous as heavier types of oil, thankfully, so it’s less likely to clog the feathers and fur of birds and seals. It can also be broken down by natural bacteria.

But it can still poison fish and kill animals and plants on the shoreline if it makes its way into the soil there.

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The Marine Conservation Society has pointed out the site in the Humber estuary is close to some protected areas and is important for seabirds and harbour porpoises.

And both ships will have been powered by a dirtier, heavier kind of oil – likely marine gas oil or heavy fuel oil, though we don’t know the details yet.

Heavy fuel oil is nasty stuff.

Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Image:
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA

Cheap, thick and tar-like, it can smother animals and is very dangerous if they consume it, and is extremely difficult to clean up. Let’s hope this isn’t creeping around the North Sea already.

We don’t know how much of either the jet fuel or the oil powering the ships has leaked, or how much will be burned off in the violent fires – which themselves are ploughing black smoke and filthy air pollution into the surrounding atmosphere.

And we don’t know for sure what was on the Solong cargo ship and if, or what, will go into the sea.

Cargo ship ‘had sodium cyanide on board’

It was carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide among other cargo, according to a report from maritime data provider Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

The container vessel was also transporting an unknown quantity of alcohol, said the casualty report – an assessment of incidents at sea – citing a message from the local coastguard.

Plastic takes hundreds of years to break down, and potentially can choke or trap animals.

Many of us have seen that uncomfortable viral video of a turtle having a straw yanked out of its nose. Previous accidents on cargo ships have seen plastic Lego pieces wash up in Cornwall 25 years later.

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Secondly, the impact depends on the sea and weather conditions around it.

Things like the wind and currents affect how an oil spill spreads in the sea. Scientists can draw up computer models to simulate how the oil could behave.

Thirdly, it matters how quickly this is all tackled and then cleaned up, if necessary, and if it can be.

Usually the slower the response, the worse the impact.

The coastguard has said the incident “remains ongoing” and it has started assessing the “likely counter pollution response” that will be required.

Such a response might need the help of numerous public bodies: the government environment department, the transport department, the Environment Agency and the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.

So for now the best we can hope for – aside from the welfare of the people involved – is that not all the oil is spilled or burnt, that conditions are calm and that rescuers and those cleaning up can work swiftly.

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Passengers travelling to Heathrow Airport face delays on M4 after car catches fire in tunnel

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Passengers travelling to Heathrow Airport face delays on M4 after car catches fire in tunnel

Passengers travelling to Heathrow Airport are facing delays on the road after a vehicle caught fire in a tunnel.

“Due to an earlier vehicle fire, road access to Terminals 2 and 3 is partially restricted,” the airport said in a post on X shortly before 7am.

“Passengers are advised to leave more time travelling to the airport and use public transport where possible.

“We apologise for the disruption caused.”

AA Roadwatch said one lane was closed and there was “queueing traffic” due to a vehicle fire on Tunnel Road “both ways from Terminals 2 and 3 to M4 Spur Road (Emirates roundabout)”.

“Congestion to the M4 back along the M4 Spur, and both sides on the A4. Down to one lane each way through one tunnel…,” it added.

National Highways: East said in an update: “Traffic officers have advised that the M4 southbound spur Heathrow in Greater London between the J4 and J4A has now been reopened.”

The agency warned of “severe delays on the approach” to the airport, recommended allowing extra time to get there and thanked travellers for their patience.

The London Fire Brigade said in a post on X just before at 7.51am it was called “just before 3am” to a car fire in a tunnel near HeathrowAirport.

“Firefighters attended and extinguished the fire, which involved a diesel-powered vehicle. No one was hurt and the airport has now confirmed the tunnel has re-opened.”

Travellers writing on social media reported constrasting experiences, with @ashleyark calling it “complete chaos on all surrounding roads”, but @ClaraCouchCASA said she “went to T5 and got the express to T3”, describing the journey as “very easy and no time delay at all. 7am this morning. Hope this helps others”.

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Man arrested on suspicion of murder after woman shot dead in Talbot Green, South Wales

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Man arrested on suspicion of murder after woman shot dead in Talbot Green, South Wales

A man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after a 40-year-old woman was shot dead in South Wales.

The woman was found with serious injuries just after 6pm on Sunday and died at the scene despite the efforts of emergency services.

She was discovered in the Green Park area of Talbot Green, a town about 15 miles west of Cardiff.

A 42-year-old local man is in police custody.

Detective Chief Inspector James Morris said: “I understand the concern this will cause the local community, and I want to reassure people that a team of experienced detectives are already working at pace to piece together the events of last night.”

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South Wales Police said a number of crime scenes have been set up and road closures are in place.

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