UK government ‘complacent’ in countering growing risk from Wagner Group
The UK government’s sanctions targeting Wagner have been “underwhelming in the extreme” and it should act faster to exploit the mercenary group’s current weakness, a new report has found.
MPs on the foreign affairs committee say ministers have taken their eye off the ball over the last decade as Wagner expanded its reach across Syria, Ukraine and Africa.
The committee’s report, entitled ‘Guns for Gold: the Wagner Network exposed’, details the nefarious, destabilising nature of Wagner, especially in Africa, where the group makes most of its money, and highlights what it describes as government complacency in failing to recognise and act in a coordinated fashion to mitigate the risk that Wagner, as a slippery Russian proxy, represents.
The report says the UK’s efforts to sanction individuals and entities associated with Wagner’s wide-ranging network have been poor compared with those of the EU and US and says it is not equipped to track Wagner’s activity as it transforms in the aftermath of Evgeny Prigozhin‘s coup.
A lack of clarity as to what exactly the Wagner network represents means Wagner-linked entities may still have access to UK financial markets, the report claims, and the tendency to view the group through the prism of Ukraine has stymied the government’s ability to protect the international order and UK interests as the network expands.
Yevgeny Prigozhin recently led his men on an aborted coup attempt
Wagner has spread its tentacles incredibly fast across the African continent, providing an array of services from counter-insurgency operations to security assistance, military training and political influence campaigns in exchange mostly for hugely lucrative mineral concessions which in turn bolster Russia’s heavily sanctioned state coffers.
The Kremlin appears to have recognised that despite Prigozhin’s waywardness, it cannot afford from a foreign policy perspective to dismantle the group’s network in countries like the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan and Libya.
This is why it appears, at least in part, that Evgeny Prigozhin has been allowed to sit easy for now in Belarus, with Wagner forces taking a break from their Ukraine activity to focus instead on Africa.
African countries meanwhile continue to rely heavily on the Wagner model to prop up weak and unstable regimes.
‘State capture’ in Africa
The Central African Republic (CAR) has just announced that Wagner will be providing security around this Sunday’s referendum which seeks constitutional changes to enable President Touadera to run for a third term (echoes of Vladimir Putin there).
The report describes the CAR’s reliance on Wagner as an example of ‘state capture’ and a warning of what may happen elsewhere given the country’s continued and bloody instability.
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Wagner fighters ‘train soldiers in Belarus’
The UK should make it clear to countries looking to engage with malign PMCs like Wagner, the report says, that the downsides of instability, corruption and a tendency towards extreme violence outweigh any perceived benefit and that cooperation may carry financial and diplomatic consequences.
Read more:
Wagner troops leave CAR after ‘refusing contracts with Russia’
Is this where Wagner Group fighters could be based in Belarus?
Russia, alongside China, has deepened its influence in Africa as the UK has been preoccupied with security threats closer to home.
France has been forced out of the CAR and Mali as actors like Wagner assert their influence in these deeply unstable countries. The UK’s stabilisation efforts in Libya seem like policy from a bygone era.
Despite the obvious priority afforded Ukraine as it battles Russia’s unconscionable invasion, this report argues the UK must up its game if it is to keep on top of the significant threat that Wagner continues to represent to UK security interests across the globe.
World
‘Better late than never’: Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be ‘courageous step’
Britain will be taking “a courageous step at a very difficult time” by officially recognising a Palestinian state, according to the authority’s foreign minister, who told Sky News she believes the announcement – expected in the coming days – will inspire more nations to follow suit.
The Palestinian Authority’s foreign minister, Varsen Aghabekian, told me Britain’s move was “better late than never”, and said “Britain, with its weight, can influence other countries to come forward and recognise, because that is the right thing to do”.
But she also said she is “very angry” with the White House over its “unwavering support” for Israel, and said that Israel’s refusal to pass on tax revenue was pushing Palestinian civil society to the brink of “collapse”.
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Could recognition of Palestine change the West Bank?
Aghabekian was speaking as Britain, along with France, Canada and Australia, prepares to recognise the State of Palestine officially at the United Nations.
She told me: “Britain has been supporting the existence and the flourishing of Israel for some time, but I think today Britain is looking at the matter objectively, in terms of the right of people, in terms of complying with international law, and in terms of the future of this area for both the Israelis and Palestinians.”
She rejected the idea that recognising Palestine was a reward for Hamas terrorism, saying that “non-recognition” would also be a “reward to the extremists” and said that “if we wait until Israel decides it wants to go into negotiations with the Palestinians, then it won’t happen”.
Aghabekian told me she expected Gaza to be returned to the Palestinians, but I put it to her that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was being empowered by the diplomatic support he receives from America, and in particular, US President Donald Trump.
So is she angry with the White House? “Very angry, because I expect the White House and the United States of America to align with international law, with human rights, with having no double standards.
“This unwavering support for Israel, this blind support, is not only harming the Palestinians but also Israeli society.”
Read more:
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Gaza could be ‘real estate bonanza’, Israeli minister says
Varsen Aghabekian speaks to Sky’s Adam Parsons
The state of Palestine is already recognised by three-quarters of the United Nations’ members. It comprises two separate territories – the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. Together, they are officially known as the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
The West Bank has been subject to Israeli military occupation since 1967, while Gaza has been attacked by Israel since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, when nearly 1,200 Israelis were killed and around 250 people were taken hostage.
Since then, more than 65,000 people have been killed in Gaza as Israel has sought to destroy Hamas and recover its hostages. There are 48 hostages still in Gaza, with 20 believed to be alive.
She confirmed to me that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, “has given guarantees in letters to various leaders around the globe that said Hamas will not be part of the governance of the Gaza Strip” and insisted there was “probably a worldwide consensus” on the topic.
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How has UK responded to Israel-Gaza conflict?
But she also insisted it was “not reasonable” to talk of completely erasing Hamas: “Hamas is an ideology, not a building that you bring down. Hamas is in people’s minds; in their heads.
“Those who support Hamas need to see a future, need to see something that is moving on the political level, need to see that there might be a state in which their children and their grandchildren might prosper.
“What people see today, whether they are Hamas supporters or not, they see darkness and they see destruction all over. They see violation of rights. They are helpless and hopeless. People need to see things are moving forward, and once that happens, there will be a shift in the mood, and they will look for a better future.”
But just as the Palestinians prepare to welcome recognition, Aghabekian said the West Bank was facing financial collapse as Israel continues to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars of tax revenue that, under a 30-year-old agreement, it collects on the Palestinian Authority’s behalf.
Israel has retained a proportion of the money since the start of the war in Gaza, but, encouraged by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, it has recently withheld a much higher amount.
“People have not been paid, civil servants are only receiving small parts of their salaries. We can’t buy medical supplies, equipment, you name it,” said Aghabekian.
“How can a government run a country under such conditions? So yes, we are very worried.”
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