MLB Power Rankings: A shake-up in the top 5 before the trade deadline
Tampa Bay’s 113-day reign atop the American League East is over — there’s a new division leader in town.
The Orioles not only jumped the Rays in the division but in our power rankings as well, with Baltimore making its debut at No. 2 — its highest standing in recent memory. But that was not the only change in our top five this week.
The Dodgers secured the final spot in the top three, the Rays fell to No. 4 — their lowest standing since they were fourth in our Week 1 power rankings — and the Rangers rounded out the top five.
What’s the biggest need among these top five teams — and all 30 clubs — before the Aug. 1 trade deadline?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 16 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 64-36
Previous ranking: 1
After tearing the cover off the old horsehide in June when they hit .306/.371/.569 with 61 home runs in 25 games, the Braves’ offense has slowed down a bit in July — enough that the Dodgers now lead the National League in runs (the Rangers lead the majors). The Braves are still slugging a ton of home runs, so it’s not really a cause for concern, and they’re averaging 5.57 runs per game overall (through Tuesday), which would be their highest since 2003, when they averaged 5.60 per game (not counting 2020, when they averaged 5.80). The Braves made some minor moves to add pitching depth, claiming Yonny Chirinos off waivers from the Rays and acquiring relievers Pierce Johnson (Rockies) and Taylor Hearn (Rangers). Johnson is the one most likely to make an impact. He had 13 saves with the Rockies, although with a 6.00 ERA. — Schoenfield
Record: 62-40
Previous ranking: 4
The Orioles’ bullpen has been a strength for two years running and in Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano, they’ve had one of the most devastating one-two high-leverage combos in the majors this season. But with the Orioles angling for a division title and possible No. 1 seed in the American League bracket, they need to add depth to this area of strength. Part of it is because Cano has been on the back-pedal a bit in recent weeks, a slump that perhaps reached its nadir with a blown save loss to the Phillies on Tuesday.
On the other hand, recent pickup Shintaro Fujinami threw two perfect innings with three whiffs in that game. After a brutal start to the season, Fujinami’s numbers have been on the upswing and the Orioles just might be able to catch some lightning in a bottle with him. But they’ll need more of that with the deadline approaching, in addition to a need for rotation upgrades that has garnered much contention. — Doolittle
Record: 58-43
Previous ranking: 5
A lot could change about the Dodgers over these next five days, but before it does, let’s take some time to appreciate the state of their current iteration, which is in first place, once again, despite a litany of issues throughout their roster. Their rotation has been a mess, with Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May hurt, Noah Syndergaard struggling mightily and Julio Urias having an up-and-down year. They haven’t been strong up the middle, particularly at second base, shortstop and center field. Until recently, the back end of their bullpen had been a problem, too. And yet the Dodgers continue to dominate, at a time when so many high-profile teams are struggling. It’s truly remarkable. — Gonzalez
Record: 62-43
Previous ranking: 2
The month of July has transmogrified our perceptions about this year’s Rays. At the end of June, the Rays were rolling, with a win pace of 109, a runs scored pace of 913 and net-run pace of 311. Those numbers have since dropped to 97, 847 and 229. While much of the trade deadline chatter about the Rays centers on their need for rotation depth, Tampa Bay needs to regain its offensive prowess to get its championship train rolling again. During July, the Rays’ offense ranks 29th in both OPS and runs per game and is dead last in on-base percentage. Among the key strugglers: Wander Franco (.511) and Randy Arozarena (.499) have seen their OPSs plummet this month. — Doolittle
Record: 60-41
Previous ranking: 3
Texas should be as busy as anyone at the trade deadline, with bullpen help, a starter and perhaps another bat in its sights. It was a rough week for all Rangers pitchers, as they gave up 41 runs in a four-game span. It led to the highest ERA in baseball over a seven-day period ending Tuesday: 8.21. The Rangers had just one starter last six innings, taxing a bullpen that simply kept giving up hit after hit after hit to the Dodgers in a series loss. With Nathan Eovaldi getting a break this week, there’s a further emphasis on the need for pitching before Tuesday’s trade deadline. — Rogers
Record: 56-45
Previous ranking: 6
Most metrics-based projection models likely still favor the Rangers in the AL West race because of their overwhelming edge over the Astros in run differential. But let’s face it: With Houston closing in on the division leaders, the West once again seems like the Astros’ race to lose. That means first-year GM Dana Brown can make targeted additions at the deadline, as the Astros very much remain who we thought they were. Brown told reporters that the club will likely target rotation depth, bullpen help and a left-handed bat. On the latter front, Houston ranks last — by far — in plate appearances from lefty batters this season. They also rank first in OPS from that group and by a good margin, so perhaps Brown should be careful to not impact the quality of his lefty at-bats in pursuit of quantity. — Doolittle
Record: 57-46
Previous ranking: 7
As with pretty much every other contender, much of the Blue Jays’ deadline-related chatter has revolved around the possibility of adding to the rotation. One quick survey of the trade terrain and the long list of teams with remaining playoff aspirations tells you that there will be some disappointed general managers a week from now. But, of course, trading for a starting pitcher isn’t the only way to improve a club on the fly.
In the Blue Jays’ case, one area that might have an outsized impact down the stretch would be the acquisition of a good old fashioned take-and-rake slugger. While the Jays rank near the top of MLB in categories like batting average, OBP and lowest strikeout rate, they are in the middle of the pack in runs, which, let’s face it, is the category that matters most. While the question of where a three-true-outcomes slugger would play is a fair one, someone with the profile of Pirates veteran Carlos Santana (who just might be available) would be a nice complementary fit. — Doolittle
Record: 53-46
Previous ranking: 9
The early returns on Bryce Harper’s move to first base have been positive with Harper saying, “I feel very comfortable there.” That continues to lead to speculation that the Phillies will look to add a corner bat at the trade deadline, allowing them to move Kyle Schwarber to DH on a regular basis. It certainly makes sense, as Schwarber’s defensive metrics put his outfielder jump rating and outs above average rating both at a bottom-of-the-barrel first percentile in the majors. Jake Cave is hitting .231/.291/.333, so he’s not really the solution to take over in left field. Maybe somebody like the Rockies’ Randal Grichuk fits the bill or, knowing president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski’s penchant for thinking big, perhaps one of the outfielders from the Cardinals — or Cody Bellinger, if the Cubs decide to trade him. — Schoenfield
Record: 57-46
Previous ranking: 12
The overwhelming favorite to win the division, Milwaukee is likely to be active at the trade deadline. Annually, the Brewers need help at the plate, and this July is no different. They rank in the bottom third of the majors in OPS in three of the four infield positions. The latest injury to Rowdy Tellez — he injured his finger shagging fly balls — should make GM Matt Arnold’s job easier: There’s no doubting what the team needs. The Brewers could also probably use help on the mound if they’re thinking of winning in October, not just getting there. — Rogers
Record: 55-47
Previous ranking: 11
With the trade deadline almost here, the Red Sox have a chance to make as big of an in-season upgrade as any other contender — and it’s not because of a splashy acquisition. Indeed, they started off the deadline period by trading away their most oft-used shortstop this season, Enrique Hernandez, to the Dodgers. While the struggling Hernandez had not been used there much recently, the timing of the deal coincided with some happy news for the BoSox: the impending return of Trevor Story.
Story, who has missed the entire season because of an elbow injury, has been playing in rehab outings in the minors and after the Hernandez trade was announced, manager Alex Cora said Story could return to the majors as soon as the coming weekend. Early on it was far from certain that he’d return in 2023 at all, so getting the two-time All-Star back before the start of August is a best-case scenario.
The lack of year-to-date production from Boston’s shortstops represents one of the bigger holes on any postseason contender. If Story can return at anything close to his normal production, that’s a huge upgrade at a crucial position, arguably better than anything the Red Sox might have gotten from the trade market. — Doolittle
Record: 54-48
Previous ranking: 14
Depending on where you look, the Yankees’ chances to reach the postseason have sunk to somewhere between about 1-in-5 to 2-in-5. When you look at payroll and the career profiles of this roster, you can’t help but feel that something here just isn’t right. And whatever it is, it goes well beyond the soon-to-end absence of Aaron Judge. During Judge’s absence (since June 3), the Yankees have ranked near the bottom of the majors in OPS and runs.
The one player who has been solid at the plate all season, including during the current downturn, has been Gleyber Torres. Torres has been picking up momentum of late, with a .318/.355/.506 slash line in July. That leads us to the upcoming deadline. Torres has occasionally come up in the trade rumor mill. On one hand, it makes sense, as the Yankees have a number of young infielders at or near the majors. On the other hand, none of those players, other than Torres, have hit this season. So if you trade Torres, where does that leave this moribund attack? — Doolittle
Record: 54-50
Previous ranking: 16
When the Twins beat the Mariners 4-3 on Monday, their team temperature (a Bill James-derived measure for which 72 degrees is average) rose to 103 degrees. That marked the first time all season that the Twins’ temp reached triple digits and proved this enigmatic club is actually capable of getting hot. The 14-8 spree that began June 30 improved the chances that the eventual AL Central champion will finish with a better record than at least one team from the AL East. It might also have clarified matters for the deadline approach of a Minnesota team that will have to confront underdog status no matter who they play if and when they reach the playoffs. While every team could use more pitching, the Twins’ staff is good enough that they can put their trade resources toward much-needed offensive help. — Doolittle
Record: 54-47
Previous ranking: 8
The Giants have aggressively promoted the likes of Patrick Bailey, Casey Schmitt and Luis Matos this season — and now they’re doing the same with Marco Luciano. Luciano, the team’s top hitting prospect, was called up Wednesday morning after just a six-game Triple-A stint and will take over as the everyday shortstop, at least for the foreseeable future. Leading up to that point, the Giants had scored only 11 runs in their previous seven games (six of them losses) and were in need of a spark, particularly from their middle infield. Luciano, 21, missed the first month of the season because of a back injury but had been slashing .262/.370/.490 in the minor leagues since the start of June. Brandon Crawford is nearing his way back from the injured list, but the Giants will probably find room for Luciano if he’s hitting. — Gonzalez
Record: 55-48
Previous ranking: 10
The month of July has been especially unkind to the D-backs. They’ve dropped 14 of 19 games, going from a three-game cushion to a four-game deficit in the NL West while getting swept by the Mets, Blue Jays and Reds. Their dynamic offense is slashing only .239/.317/.410 this month, but their rotation has pitched to a 5.93 ERA and their bullpen has put up a 1.38 WHIP. So, it has all been bad. And their next five series — against the Mariners, Giants, Twins, Dodgers and Padres, respectively — won’t make things any easier. The D-backs could desperately use a boost, particularly with a pitching acquisition or two. Merrill Kelly is back, at least, and he provided six innings of one-run ball against the Cardinals on Tuesday. — Gonzalez
Record: 56-48
Previous ranking: 15
Cincinnati is scouring the pitching market. A veteran arm could solidify a staff that should be stronger down the stretch as its own pitchers get healthy. The Reds are in a tight division battle with the Brewers, who have the pitching but not the hitting. Cincinnati is the opposite. While Elly De La Cruz had a rare tough week, going 3-for-19 over a six-game span, Will Benson and Matt McClain picked him up — both OPS’d over 1.000 in the same time frame. Cincinnati is in that fun “different hero every night” stage of its rebuild. If it gets a starter with experience at the deadline, an earlier-than-expected appearance in the postseason is still possible. — Rogers
Record: 55-48
Previous ranking: 13
Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to the Rays dropped the Marlins to 3-11 in their past 14 games — before Miami’s win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday — as both the offense and pitching have scuffled since returning from the All-Star break (they lost eight in a row coming out of the break to the Orioles, Cardinals and Rockies). The Marlins hit .244 with just four home runs over a 10-game stretch and even Luis Arraez hit a mere .310 over that period, although he did deliver the walk-off base hit to beat the Rockies on Sunday. Johnny Cueto made his first start since April 3 on Saturday and allowed just one run in six innings with eight strikeouts, so that’s a good sign as Eury Perez remains in the minors to help conserve his innings (he hasn’t pitched since being sent down). — Schoenfield
Record: 52-49
Previous ranking: 19
The Angels have been doing their part on the field to try to ensure that Shohei Ohtani would not be traded before the deadline as 13-game stretch that saw them lose 11 times has been followed with six wins in seven games, allowing them to remain within striking distance of the final wild-card spot with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon out. The franchise appeared to go all-in on seeing how this plays out for the rest of the season on Wednesday night by first pulling Ohtani’s name off the trade market and then making a deal to acquire Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from the White Sox. — Gonzalez
Record: 49-54
Previous ranking: 18
Blake Snell started against the Pirates on Tuesday, pitching six innings of one-run ball to lower his ERA to 2.61 and continue his run as one of the sport’s most dominant pitchers since the start of May. The question, of course, is whether that will ultimately be his last start in a Padres uniform. The Padres won that night’s game, but by that point they had split their first dozen games since the All-Star break and thus remained below .500. They still believe they have the makings of a championship-contending team if moves are made on the margins of the roster, but they’re running out of time. And others will undoubtedly present some intriguing trade packages for Snell and closer Josh Hader, both of whom will be free agents at season’s end. It remains to be seen whether they’ll be traded. — Gonzalez
Record: 52-50
Previous ranking: 17
What a wild two games against the Twins. On Monday, Kolten Wong hit a shocking two-run, two-out go-ahead home run in the top of the ninth — only to see Andres Munoz blow the save and the Mariners lose in the 10th. On Tuesday, they were down four runs in the eighth before rallying for seven runs over the final two frames — the first time since 1991 they rallied from that far down on the road in the eighth inning. Julio Rodriguez had his second career two-homer game in the win, including a tying blast in the eighth — on the day he was dropped from second to fifth in the batting order. It was rare high-leverage production from Rodriguez, who was so good in the clutch last season but entered Tuesday’s game hitting just .183 in high-leverage situations. — Schoenfield
Record: 51-51
Previous ranking: 20
The Guardians are close enough to the Twins that they probably won’t be looking to make any big deals (meaning trading players away, because we know they are unlikely to make any big deals to bring players in), although there certainly will be a lot of interest in some of their bullpen arms.
In the meantime, with Xzavion Curry now in the rotation, the Guardians have four rookie starters in him, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams. Curry’s first two starts have each been three innings, so we’ll see if he remains more of an opener or whether they’ll look to stretch him out. Williams, the first-round pick in 2021, is seen as having the highest ceiling. He has been solid, if unspectacular, so far — he hasn’t generated a ton of swing-and-misses (except one start against the Royals) and the command is a little shaky — but he owns a nice four-pitch arsenal, with his four-seamer averaging 95 mph. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-51
Previous ranking: 22
While the Cubs were almost a sure team to deal a few weeks ago, they are clawing their way back to .500. The odds say it’s still a long shot for Chicago to make the playoffs but with an easy schedule this week — combined with tougher ones for rivals in Milwaukee and Cincinnati — the momentum in the division might favor the Cubs as the trade deadline approaches. It’s not so much what they’ll add but what they won’t give up: Bellinger. He has been on fire since returning from an injury in May. Since the All-Star break, alone, he has an OPS over 1.300. If the Cubs do add, it’ll be in the bullpen, where they desperately need a veteran lefty and another right-hander. — Rogers
Record: 47-54
Previous ranking: 21
The Mets remain one of the most intriguing teams to watch at the trade deadline, especially in regard to what they’ll do with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Both have no-trade clauses and big salaries for 2024, so trading them won’t be easy.
But interest certainly has to be increasing on Verlander after he had another excellent outing Tuesday against the Yankees with six scoreless innings. He has a 1.98 ERA over his past eight starts while limiting batters to a .184 average. It’s not a completely rosy picture — he did walk four against the Yankees and had a six-walk game against the Dodgers on July 14, plus his strikeout rate isn’t overly impressive in that span. But it’s Verlander, and he’s pitching well. Factor in that the Mets’ next seven games are against the Nationals and Royals and they might just decide to let things play out. — Schoenfield
Record: 46-57
Previous ranking: 23
Retool, retool, retool. It’s not a concept the Cardinals are used to, but they have no choice after a losing weekend in Chicago in which they won Game 1 of the series only to drop the next three. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are likely moving on, but how far will St. Louis go? Most think not that far as the division is no juggernaut, and as long as the Cardinals find some pitching for next season, they could be right back near the top of the division. Montgomery’s streak of giving up one or fewer runs came to an end at five games after he gave up five to the Cubs on Sunday. He still managed to get through six innings, though, so his stock should not have fallen much after one mediocre start. — Rogers
Record: 46-55
Previous ranking: 24
The Tigers’ postseason chances remain small, as does the likelihood of them making a splashy acquisition before the deadline. Still, the narrative of the Tigers’ season has shifted in recent weeks for the better. For a while, it seemed like the building-block young players on the roster were all either injured or struggling, but the trend has reversed in recent games.
Riley Greene has returned to the lineup and resumed his sharp upward trajectory. Spencer Torkelson isn’t there yet in terms of consistency but his numbers have been on the climb. Most importantly, the Tigers have pitched their tails off of late with young hurlers Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson all playing a part in that. Their continued progress from here to the end of the season would give Tigers fans ample reason to enter the offseason with a lot more optimism than you would have thought possible two months ago. — Doolittle
Record: 45-57
Previous ranking: 25
It has been a while since the Pirates won a series as they’ve methodically moved down the standings and into last place in the NL Central. They ranked 26th in ERA over the past month and 28th over the past two weeks as no regular starter has an ERA under 4.00. All-Star Mitch Keller‘s ERA in July is over 7.00, and that’s with a seven-inning shutout included. Teams are simply squaring him up more, unlike earlier in the year when he was inducing soft contact. He’ll set a career high in innings pitched as long as he’s healthy. That’s the good news. There isn’t much of that these days in Pittsburgh. — Rogers
Record: 41-62
Previous ranking: 26
Falling to 20 games below .500 as we near the trade deadline is the exclamation mark on a horrendous season that should result in a front office shakeup. But this is the White Sox, so it’s anyone’s guess what owner Jerry Reinsdorf will do after the team’s rebuild fell flat on its face. First up, the team moved pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in a trade with the Angels. Next to go could be Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. Statistically, there haven’t been many worse position players than Tim Anderson, but he has gotten hot at the right time if the White Sox are thinking of trading him. He hit .378 in the first nine games after the All-Star break, driving the ball to right field like he usually does when things are going well for him. Little has this season, though. — Rogers
Record: 43-59
Previous ranking: 27
Here’s a goal: Pass the Mets and finish in fourth place! Who was taking bets before the season that the Nationals would finish with a better record than the Mets? Washington heads to Citi Field for four games this weekend, so if it takes three of four or even sweeps New York that would put pressure on that “race.” One way to catch the Mets is for MacKenzie Gore to get on a roll — or at least show some consistency. He has had a weird every-other-start-is-a-good-one thing going. Look at his runs allowed since June 10: 5, 0, 5, 1, 7, 0 (lifted early because of a rain delay), 5, 0. Overall, his whiff (74th percentile) and strikeout rates (79th percentile) are strong indicators, while his control continues to be his biggest problem. It’s a learning curve, but there is still No. 2 starter potential here. — Schoenfield
Record: 40-62
Previous ranking: 28
The Rockies’ jarring pitching issues clearly extend beyond the major leagues. Three of their top four pitching prospects, as ranked by MLB.com, were scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery this week, right around the same time as Antonio Senzatela. The three prospects: Gabriel Hughes, the 10th overall pick in 2022; Jackson Cox, a second-round selection in that same draft; and Jordy Vargas, an international signing in 2021. Hughes, Vargas and Cox were ranked sixth, 11th and 12th, respectively, in the Rockies’ system by MLB.com. Now they might not pitch until 2025. The Rockies have already started selling off major league players, with veteran reliever Pierce Johnson dealt to the Braves on Monday. More will follow. — Gonzalez
Record: 29-75
Previous ranking: 29
This is hard to believe, but it is the Royals we’re talking about here: Cleveland beat Kansas City on Tuesday to hand Zack Greinke his 16th consecutive road loss. His last road win came on Aug. 21, 2021, when he was with the Astros. In 27 road starts since — 24 of them with the Royals — he has gone 0-16 with a 6.43 ERA. Of course, he also has just one win at home this season and is now 1-11 with a 5.49 ERA. And get this: In his career, Greinke is 65-87 in his two stints with the Royals and 159-65 with the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros. He’s still a future Hall of Famer, but this is not exactly the way you want to go out if it’s your final season. — Schoenfield
Record: 28-76
Previous ranking: 30
“Sell the team!” chants filled the air at Oracle Park in San Francisco on Tuesday night, followed by pleas of “Stay in Oakland!” It was a rare moment in time when A’s and Giants fans came together to protest the A’s impending move to Las Vegas, making up a sellout crowd of more than 40,000. These are clearly tough times for A’s fans in Oakland.
“Totally understand the sentiment in the bay and totally understand the sentiment in the ballpark tonight,” Giants manager Gabe Kapler said. — Gonzalez
On Monday, the next installment of the Battle of Florida will be contested between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, a rivalry that has certainly intensified in recent years.
The two teams entered the league one year apart. The Bolts in 1992 and the Cats a year later.
Although the Panthers miraculously made it to the Stanley Cup Final in their third season, the state of Florida wasn’t truly on the hockey map until the Lightning won the title in 2004.
But for most of the two teams’ existence, the rivalry was purely geographical, with the hockey world largely focusing on other feuds or thriving franchises. Despite achieving far less success in the 23 years after they made the Cup Final in 1996, the Panthers won the lion’s share of games against the Lightning. In that same 23-year span, the Cats had a sub-.500 record against the Lightning in only seven seasons, and the club’s all-time record against their in-state rival is 79-54-29.
But this truly became the “Battle” when both teams became great, and that has been in the past six seasons. The pair met in the playoffs for the first time in 2021, which is the perfect start of this era — Tampa Bay was coming off a Stanley Cup win in 2020 (in the bubble) and dispatched Florida in six games en route to their second straight Cup. The Lightning would sweep the Panthers the next season before bowing out to Colorado in the Cup Final, marking three straight trips to the Final.
Then it was Florida’s turn to do the exact same thing, making their three straight trips to the Cup Final (with the streak still active), and beating Tampa Bay 4-1 in back-to-back first rounds in 2024 and 2025 en route to Cup wins. Their playoff records against each other are identical: two series wins, 10-10 overall.
And this feud has turned ugly, bloody and downright nasty. Two preseason games (!) this October saw Lightning and Panthers players maul each other on the ice to the tune of a combined 508 penalty minutes and 26 misconducts. “It just got silly, got stupid,” lamented Panthers forward Evan Rodrigues, describing the chaos that some hockey fans absolutely relish. There were so many ejections that Florida’s Niko Mikkola got ejected, didn’t leave and then assisted on a goal, that had to be called back upon review.
It took a while to get there, but the Battle of Florida is now one of the most bitter rivalries in hockey and has no signs of slowing down. Both teams have thrown haymakers (literally and figuratively) at the other throughout the years. Although this might hurt many traditionalists to hear, the rivalry is an offshoot of both team’s playoff and championship success and that means — if you’re judging this purely on glory at the highest levels — Florida is cemented as the current “State of Hockey.” I don’t make the rules, people, I just bring them to light.
The Panthers and Lightning drop the puck on Monday in Tampa Bay. It’s without a doubt one of the biggest games of the week.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps
Biggest games of the week
I have my eyes firmly on every game the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers play this week. Purely because I want to see the immediate impact the traded players will be making. And there’s some overlap!
The Quinn Hughes trade was a Friday night shocker. Minnesota! What a coup!
The Wild play the Washington Capitals on Tuesday (one of the teams rumored to be in on the Hughes trade talks), followed by the the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday, and the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday (a big test). Before the Avs, they’ll host the Oilers on Saturday … when I hope Tristan Jarry will be starting, and we get some sort of Hughes scoring chance on the new Oilers goalie.
Aside from the showdown in Minnesota, the Oilers have the Boston Bruins on Thursday and Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday (a big offensive test).
Jarry won his first game with the Oilers on Saturday, a 6-3 victory in Toronto.
The Penguins, with Stuart Skinner and Brett Kulak now in the mix, face the Ottawa Senators on Thursday, then have a home-and-home series against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday and Sunday.
But I have a big red circle around Tuesday on my calendar, because the Oilers face the Penguins. Hockey trade bingo! It’s always awesome when traded players face their old teams right away. It’s like getting early and tangible “who won the trade?” argument fodder based on how the traded players perform. Let’s hope the coaches help out the narrative and start both Jarry and Skinner in this one.
Other key games this week
MONDAY
8 p.m. ET | ESPN+
TUESDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
WEDNESDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
THURSDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
FRIDAY
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
10 p.m. ET | ESPN+
SATURDAY
12:30 p.m. ET | NHL Network
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
SUNDAY
1 p.m. ET | NHL Network
What I loved this weekend
The San Jose Sharks are a lot of people’s second favorite team, and they made a whole bunch of fans happy — outside of Pittsburgh, of course — on Saturday. Down 5-1 with 12 minutes to play in the game, the Sharks scored four unanswered goals in the third period, then won the game in overtime. And no, this was not Stuart Skinner‘s debut — his immigration paperwork was held up, so it was Arturs Silovs in goal for the Penguins.
1:51
Sharks score 5 unanswered to rally for OT win vs. Penguins
The Sharks put five unanswered goals past the Penguins over the third period and overtime in a huge comeback win.
This marks only the 26th time in NHL history a team was down four goals in the third period and won the game.
This is where I tell Maple Leafs fans to look away. Because the ESPN Research team dug even deeper, and found that there were only two instances of teams that came back from five-goal deficits in the third period and won the game.
The two teams that pulled off this feat were the Calgary Flames in 1986-87 and the St. Louis Blues in 2000-01.
Their opponents on both occasions? Yes, the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today
Nathan MacKinnon obviously gets a spot. He still leads the league in points and in goals, and has points in five straight games, with nine points total in that span.
Connor McDavid is second in scoring, back to his “I’ll score at will” video game mode, and is also on a five-game point streak, where he has a silly 15 points. Casual Connor, no big deal.
0:49
Connor McDavid lights the lamp for Oilers
Connor McDavid lights the lamp for Oilers
Finally, enough is enough; I’m putting Logan Thompson on my Hart Trophy list! I’m all for goalie Hart pushes. Deal with it.
The Caps are third in the Metro Division, and Thompson has an excellent .922 save percentage through 23 games. Scott Wedgewood will likely rotate into this spot on occasion given how much of an absolute wagon the Avs are this season. Aside from his last game where he let in five goals, Wedgewood has had a terrific stretch, including a shutout.
Social media post of the week
I said this last week, and I’m serious — the 6-7 trend is getting out of control! Now it’s on the back of warmup jerseys. STOP IT NOW!
On to my actual favorite social media from this week. As my fellow pro wrestling heads out there know, John Cena’s final WWE match took place on Saturday (and Cena’s submission to Gunther ignited a reaction from the WWE crowd more heinous than a lengthy offside review). A part of the homage this week was reflecting on the jerseys Cena wore over the years, including a few hockey ones. The Oilers, Kings, Jets and Canadiens were among the pro teams to share posts with Cena wearing their threads:
The funniest one was the Habs, because Cena mimics shooting a puck in his entrance. Which confirms in WWE retirement he will be signing with Montreal, adding bottom-six depth for a playoff push.
Stick taps
I’m going to give my ESPN colleague (and, of course, Stanley Cup champion) T.J. Oshie a lot of credit. He had a “welcome to TV” moment where, because he’s a retired NHL player-turned-citizen of hockey by being on national broadcasts, he received a Stadium Series jersey like the rest of us:
We revealed the #StadiumSeries jerseys! @espnSteveLevy @TJOshie77 @espn @NHL @NHLBruins @TBLightning https://t.co/3nlxP4pgFf pic.twitter.com/sCy6CJ0H5W
— ᴀʀᴅᴀ Öᴄᴀʟ (@Arda) December 12, 2025
The problem is, Oshie never played for the Lightning or the Bruins. But we egged him on and like the true good sport that he is, he put on the Boston jersey, explaining that it resembled his old Warroad team colors.
“I did put it on, somewhat against my will.” 😅@TJOshie77 and @Arda broke down the fine details on the Boston Bruins’ 2026 NHL Stadium Series jerseys 🐻 pic.twitter.com/XuCg9lTzCl
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 12, 2025
What a sight. I’m sure it was equally jarring to see “Oshie” on the back of the Boston jersey, and perhaps more jarring to see No. 77, Oshie’s number in the NHL that also happened to be Ray Bourque’s number — which the Bruins retired in 2001.
I will jump in here and say that I believe that the retired number rule applies only for active players on that team. Celebrities, analysts, media types, or really anyone that wants to customize a jersey … pick whatever number you want. You’re not suiting up for the team with that number. It’s fine. We can let that one go.
If you want to nominate someone for stick taps in a future column, reach out to me on social media.
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Bill Connelly
The new era of college football features a larger College Football Playoff and a lower bar (and more forgiveness) for inclusion. Meanwhile, the transfer portal and increased freedom of movement for players have meant that today’s best teams can’t quite stockpile awesome backups as easily as they could in the past.
The idea of greatness has, therefore, also changed a bit. As we saw with Ohio State’s incredible national title run in 2024, it’s more about when you peak and less about how high and how long that peak might be.
It might be more difficult, then, for a team to rise to the top of this list, in other words.
It is once again time for me to rank every College Football Playoff team to date. Is it an awkward mix of 40 teams that cleared one bar during the four-team playoff era and 24 teams that cleared a lower bar in the new 12-team era? Absolutely. Is that stopping me from continuing this tradition? Absolutely not. As always, this list is derived through a combination of numbers and my own personal opinions. I start out using my SP+ ratings as a guide, then steer whichever way I want to steer with it. The rankings for 2025’s playoff participants will obviously shift in the future, once we’ve seen how this year’s four-round tournament plays out.
Jump to:
Top 10 CFP teams
64. 2025 Tulane (11-2)
CFP matchup: First round at Ole Miss
Jon Sumrall’s final Tulane team is adaptable and resilient and certainly clears a physicality bar that not every awesome Group of 5 team might. But the Green Wave’s two losses — 45-10 against first-round opponent Ole Miss, 48-26 at UTSA — were a sign that when things go awry, the ceiling is much, much lower than what we might expect from a playoff team.
63. 2024 Clemson (10-4)
CFP result: Lost to Texas 38-24 in the first round
The first official bid thieves of the 12-team era, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers looked like their hopes were finished after an end-of-regular-season loss to South Carolina. But upsets elsewhere placed them in the ACC championship game, and they won the league with a last-second field goal. That gave them a shot at Texas in the CFP first round, and although they played well while behind, the game was never truly in doubt.
62. 2024 SMU (11-3)
CFP result: Lost to Penn State 38-10 in the first round
Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs made the absolute most of their first power conference campaign in three decades, going 8-0 in the regular season and falling just six points short of a 13-0 start. But they didn’t beat any teams that finished in the SP+ top 20, and they were utterly overwhelmed in the first round in State College, throwing two pick-sixes, suffering countless other miscues and trailing big most of the way.
61. 2024 Boise State (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Penn State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal
Behind Ashton Jeanty and his 2,601 rushing yards (not to mention a fierce pass rush), Boise State nearly took down Oregon in Week 2 and headed into the CFP having won 11 straight games. The Broncos couldn’t overcome a slow start in the Fiesta Bowl, however, trailing PSU 14-0 after about 11 minutes, clawing to within three points in the third quarter and eventually falling because of turnovers and red zone failures.
60. 2025 James Madison (12-1)
CFP matchup: First round at Oregon
Bob Chesney’s final JMU team faced only one power conference opponent and suffered offensive ups and downs early on, but the Dukes have risen to 24th in SP+ because of a dynamite homestretch. They’ve outscored their past seven opponents by an average of 28 points with aggressive defense and increasingly explosive offense. Do they have the upside to scare Oregon? Probably not, but they earned their spot.
59. 2015 Michigan State (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 38-0
Mark Dantonio’s 2015 Spartans are proof that no matter what the committee said, it was picking the four “most deserving” teams rather than the four “best” — MSU was definitively the former and in no way the latter. And that’s fine! The Spartans finished 18th in FPI and 15th in SP+ but beat a dynamite Ohio State team and outlasted unbeaten Iowa to win the Big Ten. Then they did exactly what was expected of them against Alabama in the Cotton Bowl: They lost big.
58. 2025 Alabama (10-3)
CFP matchup: First round at Oklahoma
Alabama basically earned its playoff spot in October, beating Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee to craft a dynamite résumé. But due primarily to increasing numbers of offensive mistakes, the Tide’s form slipped dramatically. The committee did them a massive favor by completely ignoring poor late performances against Auburn (narrow win) and Georgia (blowout loss). Will Alabama reward the committee for its faith?
57. 2025 Oklahoma (10-2)
CFP matchup: First round vs. Alabama
The Sooners’ defense is playoff worthy by any definition, and the offense has mastered the art of opportunism — it doesn’t create nearly enough chances, but makes the most of what it creates. Tight November wins over Tennessee and Alabama drove some late résumé boosting, and a clutch, season-ending win over LSU kept Oklahoma in the field. But that offense sure looks like a fatal flaw.
56. 2019 Oklahoma (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to LSU 63-28
After three years at No. 1, Lincoln Riley’s 2019 Sooners slipped to third in offensive SP+, and the defense wasn’t good enough to make up for this smidgen of offensive mortality. They rolled to 7-0 but stumbled against Kansas State and had to survive four tight wins in their final five games. That was enough to earn the Sooners their fourth CFP appearance in five years, but they got destroyed in the Peach Bowl.
55. 2020 Notre Dame (10-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 31-14
Brian Kelly’s Irish beat Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson in overtime, and behind consensus All-America offensive linemen Aaron Banks and Liam Eichenberg, they proved physical, mature and adaptable while starting the season 10-0. But in their final two games, against a full-strength Clemson team in the ACC championship game and Alabama in the Rose Bowl, the Irish were outscored 65-24.
54. 2024 Indiana (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Notre Dame 27-17 in the first round
Curt Cignetti’s first Hoosiers team benefited from a pretty easy Big Ten schedule but won seven games by at least 24 points and finished the regular season second in the country in points per drive and sixth in points allowed per drive. Unfortunately, quarterback Kurtis Rourke‘s season-long ACL injury finally caught up to him with a poor CFP performance, and the Hoosiers couldn’t overcome a slow start in South Bend.
53. 2025 Miami (10-2)
CFP matchup: First round at Texas A&M
The Hurricanes started and finished the season looking the part and overcame a midseason funk that included timid, turnover-plagued losses to Louisville and SMU. A smart, aggressive defense gives them the upside to compete with anyone, and the offense enjoys long runs of efficiency thanks to quarterback Carson Beck and receiver Malachi Toney. Do they have the close-game chops required to make a run? We’ll see.
52. 2024 Arizona State (11-3)
CFP result: Lost to Texas 39-31 in the Peach Bowl quarterfinal
It’s tricky figuring out where to place a team that didn’t look the part until November, then very much looked the part. As late as Week 12 in 2024, ASU’s playoff odds were minuscule. But the Sun Devils won six straight down the stretch, and star Cam Skattebo almost took them even further. Behind his 242 yards from scrimmage against Texas, they were one play away from the semifinals but fell agonizingly short.
51. 2024 Tennessee (10-3)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 42-17 in the first round
Despite Josh Heupel’s offensive tendencies, his Vols reached the CFP in 2024 by fielding their best defense since 1999. They ran the ball well, defended the run better than anyone and rode a home win over Alabama to a playoff berth. Unfortunately, their limitations were made clear in Columbus. They punted three straight times to start the game, found themselves quickly down 21-0 and couldn’t recover.
50. 2025 Texas A&M (11-1)
CFP matchup: First round vs. Miami
With bursts of spectacular upside countering frustrating funks — most vividly captured by a 27-point comeback against South Carolina — Mike Elko’s Aggies went 4-0 in one-score games; avoided Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss in SEC play; and began the season 11-0. They have a speedy skill corps, a beautifully structured offense, a fierce pass rush and a first-round home game. But a playoff tends to punish funks.
49. 2014 Florida State (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to Oregon 59-20
The Seminoles returned lots of key figures from their 2013 national title romp, but they had to eke out tight win after tight win — seven one-score games in all. While the BCS would have given us a Bama-FSU title game that year, the CFP gave the Noles the No. 3 seed and sent them to the Rose Bowl, where a 34-0 Ducks run ended Florida State’s 29-game winning streak in stark fashion.
48. 2018 Notre Dame (12-1)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 30-3
The Fighting Irish earned their spot in the playoff with increasingly dominant wins over quality Michigan, Stanford and Syracuse teams. The defense was solid and excellent (second in defensive SP+), but the offensive limitations were made crystal clear when the Irish had to face Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. The game was tied after one quarter, but it got much, much worse from there.
47. 2025 Ole Miss (11-1)
CFP matchup: First round vs. Tulane
The Rebels’ stay in the 2025 playoffs might forever be defined by who wasn’t there — Lane Kiffin left for LSU after the regular season — and they probably don’t have the same raw upside as the 2024 team that fell just short of a bid. But Ole Miss can both run through and pass over opponents, and the only test the Rebels haven’t passed this year is “Can you survive a rugged fourth quarter in Athens?” They’re capable of a run.
46. 2021 Cincinnati (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 27-6
Even adjusting for strength of schedule, Luke Fickell’s CFP debutants finished sixth in SP+. The Bearcats physically dominated a strong Notre Dame squad and absolutely earned their playoff spot, and once there, they hemmed in Bryce Young and the Alabama passing attack. The problem: They got gashed by the Bama run game and, more importantly, couldn’t even slightly protect quarterback Desmond Ridder in a Cotton Bowl loss.
45. 2018 Oklahoma (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 45-34
OU lost Baker Mayfield but somehow improved offensively. Kyler Murray threw for 4,361 yards and rushed for 1,001, but unfortunately, the defense was dreck. Lincoln Riley fired coordinator Mike Stoops six games in, but the Sooners allowed 44 points per game over their final six contests and gave up 31 first-half points to Alabama in the Orange Bowl. That was too much for even Murray to overcome.
44. 2015 Oklahoma (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 37-17
Bob Stoops’ Sooners headed into 2015 with a new offensive coordinator (Lincoln Riley) and a transfer quarterback (Baker Mayfield), and after a disappointing 2014, OU reignited. The Sooners won a loaded Big 12 and were 3.5-point favorites against Clemson in the Orange Bowl. They took a 17-16 lead into halftime, but Clemson shifted into fifth gear in the second half and sent the Sooners home with a 20-point loss.
43. 2016 Ohio State (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 31-0
After what might have been Urban Meyer’s most talented Ohio State team missed the CFP in 2015, the most offensively limited one made it the next year. The defense was strong enough to limit Deshaun Watson and Clemson to just two touchdowns in the Tigers’ first 10 drives in the semifinal, but the Buckeyes’ offense, which ranked 20th in offensive SP+ (terrible by their standards), got embarrassed.
42. 2017 Clemson (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 24-6
You know your program is in great shape when “transition year” means “only making the CFP semis.” The Tigers boasted perhaps the best defense of the Dabo Swinney era, but Deshaun Watson was gone, and Trevor Lawrence wouldn’t arrive in town for another year. Clemson was too good for the rest of the ACC but gained just 188 yards against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, bowing out slightly earlier than normal.
41. 2023 Alabama (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Michigan 27-20
Nick Saban’s final team was maybe his worst since 2007 and ranked just eighth in the CFP rankings before an SEC championship upset of Georgia. The Tide mastered the art of surviving, advancing and saving their best performance for the most important games. And when they were given a lifeline by snagging a CFP spot over Florida State, they nearly made the most of it, leading eventual champ Michigan into the final two minutes before succumbing in overtime.
40. 2021 Michigan (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 34-11
A loss to Michigan State set Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines back early on, but they took down Ohio State for the first time in a decade, then stomped Iowa to win their first outright Big Ten title since 2003. This was an excellent team and the champion of an excellent conference, but the Wolverines ran into a slight problem in the Orange Bowl: They weren’t better than Georgia at a single thing. That will catch up to you.
39. 2024 Penn State (13-3)
CFP result: Beat SMU 38-10; beat Boise State 31-14; lost to Notre Dame 27-24 in the Orange Bowl semifinal
James Franklin’s Penn State tenure was defined by an extreme ability to control the controllables and a failure to rise to the biggest occasions. The Nittany Lions beat SMU and Boise State as comfortable favorites to reach the 2024 semis and came achingly close to beating Notre Dame. But they came up short, and their attempt to keep the band together and go all-in in 2025 crumpled to the ground too.
38. 2023 Texas (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Washington 37-31
Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns gave Alabama its first double-digit home loss of the entire Nick Saban era. They beat seven other bowl-eligible teams by an average of 24 points and pummeled Oklahoma State by 28 in the Big 12 championship game. They returned to relevance in a major way, but they couldn’t slow Michael Penix Jr. and Washington in the Sugar Bowl. The Huskies quarterback threw for 430 yards and made Texas’ first playoff stay a one-gamer.
37. 2022 TCU (13-2)
CFP result: Defeated Michigan 51-45; lost to Georgia 65-7 in the national championship
Heisman runner-up Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs were close-game masters, winning five one-score games during a 12-0 start and losing only to a top-10 Kansas State team in the Big 12 championship. Their big-play ability and volatility were fully on display in the CFP, where they pulled off an upset of Michigan in maybe the best game of 2022, then got absolutely trounced by Georgia in the national title game.
36. 2024 Texas (13-3)
CFP result: Beat Clemson 38-24; beat Arizona State 39-31; lost to Ohio State 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl semifinal
With a dynamite defense and an occasionally wobbly offense, Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns went 13-0 against teams not named Georgia or Ohio State in 2024. They narrowly survived Arizona State in the quarterfinals thanks to clutch late play from quarterback Quinn Ewers, and they were driving to tie their semifinal late against Ohio State before a Jack Sawyer scoop-and-score touchdown sealed their fate.
35. 2016 Washington (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 24-7
Chris Petersen’s Huskies sent a message by beating a top-20 Stanford squad by 28 points in September, then finished up by felling Colorado by 31 in the Pac-12 championship game. An outstanding defense led by Budda Baker and Greg Gaines mostly controlled Alabama in the Peach Bowl, too; Washington trailed just 10-7 late in the first half before a Ryan Anderson pick-six changed the game.
34. 2024 Georgia (11-3)
CFP result: Lost to Notre Dame 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal
Georgia survived upset bids and a late-season injury to quarterback Carson Beck to still brawl its way to the SEC title despite lacking the elite-level talent that won it the 2021 and 2022 national titles. But the Bulldogs couldn’t do Gunner Stockton enough favors against Notre Dame, in his first career start, and allowing 17 points in 56 seconds in the middle of the game was too much to overcome.
33. 2025 Georgia (12-1)
CFP matchup: Sugar Bowl quarterfinal vs. Ole Miss or Tulane
The current version of the Dawgs scraped by early with nothing but guile and second-half adjustments, then kicked into gear late. An inexperienced defense established a high level in November, and Georgia avenged its lone loss, to Alabama, with an SEC championship game blowout. Do the Dawgs have the big-play capabilities for a playoff run? I’m not sure, but as always, you do not want to find yourself in a brawl with Georgia.
32. 2025 Oregon (11-1)
CFP matchup: First round vs. James Madison
Oregon’s 2025 outfit combines the offensive upside we’re used to seeing from the Ducks — especially from a run game featuring Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. — with a Big Ten-level defense capable of driving rock-fight wins. Dan Lanning’s team fell only to Indiana in the regular season, but of the teams that didn’t receive a first-round bye this year, the Ducks are the most likely to make a big run.
31. 2017 Oklahoma (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 54-48
After a bumpy start, Lincoln Riley’s first Sooners squad found its top gear midway through 2017, winning its final six Big 12 games by an average of 23 points, earning Baker Mayfield the Heisman Trophy and surging to a 31-14 first-half lead over Georgia in the Rose Bowl. The Sooners couldn’t hold on, though. Georgia came back twice to force overtime and won what still is one of the best games of the CFP era.
30. 2025 Texas Tech (11-1)
CFP matchup: Orange Bowl quarterfinal vs. Oregon or James Madison
Tech has beaten the spread in 12 of 13 games this season, a sign that we continue to underestimate just how impressive the Red Raiders are. They might have the two best defensive players in the sport in Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey, and despite multiple injuries to QB Behren Morton (who was hurt during their lone loss), they’ve scored fewer than 29 points just once. Each of their 12 wins has come by at least 22 points.
29. 2023 Washington (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Texas 37-31; lost to Michigan 34-13
The TCU of 2023, Washington boasted both an explosive passing game — Michael Penix Jr. threw for 4,903 yards, mostly to the incredible trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan — and exquisite timing: The Huskies won eight games by one score, including two wild wins over a dynamite Oregon team and a 37-31 thriller over Texas in the CFP semifinals. They couldn’t keep up with Michigan in the national title game, but that only dampened the run so much.
28. 2022 Ohio State (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 42-41
After face-planting against Michigan for the second straight year, no team stood to gain more from a CFP bid than Ryan Day’s Buckeyes. And they almost gained everything. Thanks to an incredible performance from quarterback C.J. Stroud, Ohio State held a 38-24 Peach Bowl lead on the champs heading into the fourth quarter. And even when Georgia charged back, the Buckeyes had a field goal try at the buzzer to win it. But it missed badly.
27. 2020 Clemson (10-2)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 49-28
It’s hard to properly grade a team that was without its star quarterback for one of its two losses (Trevor Lawrence vs. Notre Dame). But while Lawrence threw for 3,153 yards in just 10 games and Travis Etienne was dangerous as both a receiver and a runner, the Tigers’ defense had a bit of a big-play issue at times. And in the semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, they got dominated in the trenches, which made the biggest difference in a 21-point loss to Ohio State.
26. 2022 Michigan (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to TCU 51-45
Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines improved significantly after their brief stay in the 2021 CFP. They were even better at their go-to manball routine, and they proved to have more explosive offensive weapons as well. (Just ask Ohio State.) They were well-rounded and probably the second-best team of 2022, but they fell victim to an onslaught of TCU big plays and couldn’t pull off a last-minute comeback.
25. 2024 Notre Dame (11-2)
CFP result: Beat Indiana 27-17; beat Georgia 23-10; beat Penn State 27-24; lost to Ohio State 34-23 in the national championship
With explosive running backs and dynamite defense, Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish overcame a baffling early loss to Northern Illinois — and a lack of high-level passing — to roll to a playoff berth. After comfortable wins over Indiana and Georgia, they overcame multiple deficits to beat Penn State and reach the championship game. Only the best team in the country was going to take them down at that point.
24. 2014 Oregon (13-2)
CFP result: Beat Florida State 59-20; lost to Ohio State 42-20
Marcus Mariota combined 4,454 passing yards with 770 rushing yards and 57 total touchdowns (and duly won the Heisman), and the Ducks ranked second in offensive SP+. They scored at least 42 points in nine straight games and put up 59 on defending national champion Florida State … but weren’t able score over the final 20 minutes of the national title game. An overwhelmed Ducks defense couldn’t hold Ohio State back.
23. 2024 Oregon (13-1)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 41-21 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal
In their first Big Ten season, the Ducks won their first 13 games behind Dillon Gabriel‘s ruthlessly efficient passing, a 1,200-yard season from Jordan James and one of the best pass defenses in the country. They beat Ohio State and Penn State and earned the No. 1 seed in the CFP, but luck of the draw was not on their side: They were swarmed by a revenge-minded Buckeyes team in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
22. 2025 Ohio State (11-1)
CFP matchup: Cotton Bowl quarterfinal vs. Texas A&M or Miami
The Buckeyes began the regular season with a tight win over Texas, ended it with a tight loss to Indiana and won 11 straight in between by an average score of 39-8. They might have the most talented players in the country on both offense (Jeremiah Smith) and defense (Caleb Downs), and they head into the CFP knowing that peaking now is what matters. It would be a surprise if we didn’t see the Buckeyes’ best in December.
21. 2014 Alabama (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Ohio State 42-35
The 2014 season saw both the dawn of the CFP era and the beginning of the Great Nick Saban Offensive Evolution. He hired Lane Kiffin to modernize a stale offense, and after an early loss to Ole Miss, the Tide won eight straight to earn the No. 1 seed in the first CFP. They jumped out to a 21-6 lead on Ohio State, but three turnovers and a famous Ezekiel Elliott touchdown run did them in.
20. 2015 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 37-17; lost to Alabama 45-40
Eight years ago, Clemson was still an upstart. Quarterback Deshaun Watson was healthy and dominant, and the Tigers began to look the part of a contender. They outlasted Notre Dame in an October monsoon and blew most of a huge lead against North Carolina before surviving. In the CFP, the Tigers surged past Oklahoma in the second half and led Bama before succumbing in what might have been the greatest fourth quarter in CFP history.
19. 2017 Georgia (13-2)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 54-48; lost to Alabama 26-23
Kirby Smart’s second UGA team all but ended a 37-year national title drought. The Dawgs won at Notre Dame in September, destroyed all comers in the SEC East and avenged their lone loss with a dominant SEC championship game win over Auburn. They outlasted Oklahoma in the greatest game in CFP history and had Alabama all but beaten in the championship game … until Tua Tagovailoa came onto the field.
18. 2020 Ohio State (7-1)
CFP result: Beat Clemson 49-28; lost to Alabama 52-24
The Buckeyes played only eight games, but they won four by at least 21 points, including a 49-28 victory over Trevor Lawrence and Clemson in the semifinals. They lived up to most of their preseason hype and avenged their 2019 semifinal loss to the Tigers. They also lost the national title game by 28 points. Still, in a year of abbreviated schedules and limited two-deeps, Ohio State was a poster child of sorts, and the Buckeyes looked the part until the final act.
17. 2021 Alabama (13-2)
CFP result: Beat Cincinnati 27-6; lost to Georgia 33-18
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide had maybe the best offensive (Bryce Young) and defensive (Will Anderson Jr.) players in the country but didn’t enjoy as much depth and experience as normal and were lucky to reach 11-1. But they walloped Georgia in the SEC championship game, then beat Cincinnati with pure physicality to reach the final. They led Georgia in the fourth quarter of the championship game, too, but the Dawgs scored the final 20 points.
16. 2025 Indiana (13-0)
CFP matchup: Rose Bowl quarterfinal vs. Oklahoma or Alabama
It’s hard to tentatively rank a team much higher than this, knowing that up to three more games will be needed to tell the entire tale. But the Hoosiers have the only unbeaten record this season, they just beat Ohio State in one of the more impressive proof-of-concept games in recent memory, and their quarterback just won the Heisman. With three more wins, they would end up well into the single digits here.
15. 2016 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Washington 24-7; lost to Clemson 35-31
Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts took over as Alabama’s starter. A rebuilding season in Tuscaloosa? Hardly. Hurts won SEC Offensive Player of the Year, and the Tide rolled to the CFP final unbeaten, with only one win by single digits. They couldn’t finish the job, though. With star running back Bo Scarbrough hurt, the Alabama offense couldn’t stay on the field, and an exhausted defense gave up three late scores to fall to Clemson.
14 and 13. 2019 Ohio State (13-1) and 2019 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: Clemson beat Ohio State 29-23, then lost to LSU 42-25
It was overshadowed by LSU’s late-season brilliance, but both the Buckeyes and Tigers were unreal for most of 2019. They went a combined 26-0 in the regular season; 22 of the wins were by at least 24 points, and only one was by single digits. And in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal, they played one of the most even and compelling games in recent college football memory.
Ohio State dominated the early proceedings, going up 16-0 but settling for field goals; that offered Clemson a lifeline, and the Tigers charged back. The second half featured three scores and three lead changes, and after controversy and countless plot twists, Nolan Turner‘s interception of Justin Fields made the difference. If they’d played 100 times, each team would have won 50.
12. 2015 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Michigan State 38-0; beat Clemson 45-40
The second Saban-Kiffin mashup showed plenty of early flaws. New starting quarterback Jake Coker was shaky early on and briefly got benched, and while the defense was mostly solid, it got torched by Ole Miss in an early loss. But the Tide manhandled No. 2 LSU in early November, and Coker caught fire down the stretch. Thanks in part to a classic surprise onside kick, Bama outlasted Clemson in a title-game thriller.
11. 2016 Clemson (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Ohio State 31-0; beat Alabama 35-31
Clemson nearly lost to Auburn, Troy and Lamar Jackson‘s Louisville teams early and did lose to Pitt in mid-November. But as would become a Dabo Swinney custom, the Tigers turned into Angry Clemson after their loss, humiliating South Carolina, keeping Virginia Tech mostly at arm’s reach and shutting out Ohio State. Trailing Bama by 10 in the final, the Tigers played a nearly perfect fourth quarter, exhausting the Tide’s defense and scoring the title-winning touchdown with one second remaining.
10. 2014 Ohio State (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Alabama 42-35; beat Oregon 42-20
The ultimate “peak when you most need to” team. Ranked 16th in the initial CFP rankings, Ohio State kept getting better and rising down the stretch. Needing a huge statement in the Big Ten championship game, the Buckeyes unleashed the hugest statement, beating Wisconsin 59-0 to eke out the No. 4 CFP seed. They then proceeded to beat Bama with a 28-0 run and take down Oregon with a late 21-0 run. Late-arriving? Nope, just in time.
9. 2024 Ohio State (10-2)
CFP result: Beat Tennessee 42-17; beat Oregon 41-21; beat Texas 28-14; beat Notre Dame 34-23 in the national championship
Apparently the trick is finishing with a loss. Guess it adds motivation. The 2022 Ohio State team lost to Michigan, then nearly beat an incredible Georgia team in the CFP. The 2024 team lost to Michigan, then ripped off a four-game run that will stand as the model moving forward: Four top-10 opponents stood in the way, and four fell by an average of 17 points.
Hmm … Ohio State finished the 2025 regular season with a loss, too. Huh …
8. 2018 Alabama (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 45-34; lost to Clemson 44-16
The 2018 Bama squad was just as good as the 2020 Tide on paper but couldn’t clear the final hurdle. The Tide destroyed their first 14 opponents by an average of 32 points, and only Georgia in the SEC championship game offered any resistance (though the Dawgs offered quite a bit). The Tide combined Nick Saban’s best offense yet with a top-10 defense … but they laid the ultimate egg in the CFP finale.
7. 2017 Alabama (13-1)
CFP result: Beat Clemson 24-6; beat Georgia 26-23
Bama went scorched earth during an 11-0 start, but the offense grew rickety late. The Tide barely eked out a CFP bid after a 26-14 loss to Auburn, and they trailed Georgia 13-0 at halftime in the championship game before freshman Tua Tagovailoa tagged in, led Bama on a 20-7 run and — after the Tide nearly won in regulation — threw a famous second-and-26 strike to DeVonta Smith to win Nick Saban his sixth national title.
6. 2021 Georgia (14-1)
CFP result: Beat Michigan 34-11; beat Alabama 33-18
Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs were far and away the best team of the season’s first three months, combining steady and efficient offense with college football’s most consistently dominant defense in years. Only Bama scored more than 17 points on the Dawgs, who lost to the Tide in the SEC championship game but rebounded to pen a happy ending and, with help from a game-clinching Kelee Ringo pick-six, win their first national title in 41 years.
5. 2018 Clemson (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Notre Dame 30-3; beat Alabama 44-16
Clemson barely survived September unbeaten, needing a 2-point-conversion stop to escape Texas A&M and a rousing comeback led by backup quarterback Chase Brice to beat Syracuse. But once Trevor Lawrence was healthy and established in the starting lineup, no one had any hope against the Tigers. They beat Florida State by 49, Wake Forest by 60 and Louisville by 61, and they won two CFP games by a combined 74-19. Goodness.
4. 2023 Michigan (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Alabama 27-20; beat Washington 34-13
The Wolverines beat Penn State and Ohio State without suspended head coach Jim Harbaugh, and even with off-the-field matters swirling in the background, they were rarely challenged on the field, winning 11 games by at least 21 points. They extended their Big Ten winning streak to 25 games, they handed Nick Saban a Rose Bowl loss in his final game as a head coach, and with the national title on the line, they put on a defensive clinic. They dominated a brilliant Washington offensive line, holding the prolific Huskies to just 301 total yards and rolling to their first national title in 26 years.
3. 2022 Georgia (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Ohio State 42-41; beat TCU 65-7
Only twice did the defending national champs find themselves in a down-to-the-wire game, and only once did they have to lean on the college football gods for help (with Ohio State’s last-second field goal miss in the semifinals). They scored at least 37 points in 11 games and allowed 14 or fewer in nine. They didn’t have quite the level of high-end talent their 2021 team boasted, but they were an even more dominant team.
2. 2019 LSU (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 63-28; beat Clemson 42-25
Plenty of coaches have attempted to modernize their offenses in the hopes of giving their programs a shot in the arm. Ed Orgeron’s 2019 team set the bar impossibly high for any future modernizers. With help from an elite skill corps, Joe Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns (!!!). Once LSU’s defense got healthy late in the year, the Tigers were untouchable, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning their last six games by an average of 30 points.
1. 2020 Alabama (13-0)
CFP result: Beat Notre Dame 31-14; beat Ohio State 52-24
The Crimson Tide had the Nos. 1, 3 and 5 finishers in the Heisman voting. They played one game decided by fewer than 14 points. They bested an SEC-only schedule by an average of 30.2 points per game. Their defense struggled early but allowed only 15 points per game after mid-October. This was the best Nick Saban team ever and quite possibly the best of the 21st century.
Best team … from the best coach … with the best dynasty of the 21st century (at the very least)? Sounds like the best team of the CFP era.
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Dave Wilson
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, apologized Sunday for “being disrespectful” in a social media post he made after Indiana‘s Fernando Mendoza won the award for college football’s best player.
“F-All THE VOTERS,” Pavia wrote Saturday night on his Instagram story with a thumbs-down emoji, “BUT…..FAMILY FOR LIFE.”
The caption accompanied a photo of Pavia with his offensive linemen at the ceremony in New York.
Pavia faced criticism for his reaction, and on Sunday he posted a statement saying he didn’t handle his emotions well after losing.
Being a part of the Heisman ceremony last night as a finalist was such an honor. As a competitor, just like in everything I do I wanted to win. To be so close to my dream and come up short was painful. I didn’t handle those emotions well at all and did not represent myself the…
— Diego Pavia (@diegopavia02) December 15, 2025
“Being a part of the Heisman ceremony last night as a finalist was such an honor. As a competitor, just like in everything I do I wanted to win,” Pavia wrote on X. “To be so close to my dream and come up short was painful. I didn’t handle those emotions well at all and did not represent myself the way I wanted to.
“I have much love and respect for the Heisman voters and the selection process, and I apologize for being disrespectful. It was a mistake, and I am sorry.”
Pavia struck the Heisman pose several times this season while throwing for 3,192 yards with 27 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He also rushed for 826 yards and added nine more scores on the ground while leading Vanderbilt to a 10-2 record.
Mendoza became Indiana’s first Heisman winner, leading the Hoosiers to their first No. 1 ranking and the top seed in the College Football Playoff bracket. He threw for 2,980 yards and an FBS-leading 33 touchdowns while running for six more.
Mendoza totaled 2,362 points and 643 first-place votes, and Pavia was second with 1,435 points and 189 first-place votes.
“Fernando Mendoza is an elite competitor and a deserving winner of the award. I have nothing but respect for his accomplishments as well as the success that Jeremiyah and Julian had this season,” Pavia, a transfer from New Mexico State, wrote. “I’ve been doubted my whole life. Every step of my journey I’ve had to break down doors and fight for myself, because I’ve learned that nothing would be handed to me.
“My family has always been in my corner, and my teammates, coaches and staff have my six. I love them — I am grateful for them — and I wouldn’t want anything to distract from that. I look forward to competing in front of my family and with my team one more time in the ReliaQuest Bowl.”
No. 14 Vanderbilt faces No. 23 Iowa on Dec. 31 in Tampa, Florida (noon ET, ESPN).
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