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Scotland’s First Minister has insisted the Yes campaign would win “comprehensively” if a second referendum on independence was held tomorrow.

Despite several polls putting support for independence at less than 50%, Humza Yousaf made the claim as he published the latest paper from the Scottish government to make the case for leaving the UK.

The document proposes an independent Scotland would adopt a similar system for citizenship as Ireland, allowing people born elsewhere to apply to become Scottish citizens if they have a Scottish parent.

The paper also proposes that EU citizens living in Scotland or the UK before 31 December 2020 would be entitled to receive settled status in Scotland, and children born in Scotland after independence would automatically be a Scottish citizen if at least one of their parents is a Scottish, British or Irish citizen, or has settled status in Scotland.

Mr Yousaf, who described himself as a “proud Scottish Pakistani”, said the “welcoming” and “inclusive” approach being set out could attract more people to Scotland and help tackle the demographic challenge the country faces, with an increasingly elderly population and fewer people of working age.

He said: “We know that one of the biggest challenges we face is that demographic challenge, and therefore having more people of working age coming here contributing, living, studying, working in Scotland, I think is a good thing.”

He insisted: “If there was a referendum tomorrow, we would win it and win it comprehensively.

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“That’s also part of the reason why of course I’m publishing these papers, because they help to make the argument, give people the information they need to make that informed decision about independence.”

First Minister Humza Yousaf views records on display at the launch of a policy paper on citizenship in an independent Scotland, at the National Records Of Scotland in Edinburgh. Picture date: Thursday July 27, 2023.

He also insisted he is “confident” the Scottish government will be able to continue to publish papers in favour of independence, despite Simon Case, the cabinet secretary and head of the civil service, revealing earlier this month that civil servants north of the border could be issued with new guidance on such work within weeks.

Mr Yousaf said: “I’m confident in our position in terms of the publication of these papers.

“But I think it also speaks volumes that those who oppose independence are trying to shut down the debate instead of bringing forward their proposals for maintaining the union. They’re more obsessed with trying to shut down our case.”

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Indyref2: Does the hunger for independence remain in Scotland’s ‘Yes’ towns and cities?

Yousaf accused of putting party’s general election independence bid ‘on steroids’
First minister sets out ‘radical’ plans for independent Scotland to have written constitution

Scottish Conservative constitution spokesman Donald Cameron said: “People across Scotland will be appalled that Humza Yousaf is focusing on yet another self-indulgent paper touting independence. It is the wrong priority at the worst possible time.”

He branded the paper a “blatant misuse of public money and resources”.

Mr Cameron said: “Rather than wasting taxpayers’ money and civil servants’ time on pushing a divisive, party political agenda, a strong first minister would be concentrating on Scots’ real priorities – cost-of-living difficulties, unacceptable NHS waiting times and the ferries crisis.”

A person reads a policy paper on citizenship in an independent Scotland at its launch by First Minister Humza Yousaf, at the National Records Of Scotland in Edinburgh. Picture date: Thursday July 27, 2023.

Scottish Labour constitution spokesman Neil Bibby said the latest paper comes while the “NHS is in chaos and people are struggling to make ends meet during the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades”.

He said the Scottish government is being “distracted” from dealing with these issues by its “constitutional obsession”, and said: “Humza Yousaf is completely out of touch with Scotland’s priorities and bereft of new ideas.”

But Mr Yousaf however that independence is “inherent” to tackling issues such as the cost-of-living crisis.

He said: “Because we don’t have independence, we’re suffering austerity from a Westminster government that we didn’t elect. We’re suffering from a hard Brexit that we did not vote for. We’re suffering from a cost-of-living crisis that has been imposed upon us.

“So independence actually is central to the cost-of-living crisis.”

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James McMurdock: Reform MP previously jailed for repeatedly kicking girlfriend questioned by Sky News at party conference

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James McMurdock: Reform MP previously jailed for repeatedly kicking girlfriend questioned by Sky News at party conference

Reform UK is a party that’s vying for attention and is not ashamed of how it gets it.

With political support from Elon Musk this week amplifying Reform UK talking points on his platform X, the party has been able to make a splash in the new year ahead of the government.

Already this month the party has had two conferences in two days, and with only a handful of MPs there is opportunity for all of them to speak. With one notable exception – James McMurdock MP.

Despite being the MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock, he isn’t on the schedule for the East of England conference, with Sky News initially told he wasn’t planning on attending.

Controversy has surrounded the politician since it was unveiled that he was jailed nearly two decades ago for repeatedly kicking his then girlfriend in 2006 while drunk outside a nightclub – something not made public when he was standing to be an MP.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and the new Reform MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock, James McMurdock, pose for a photo during the inaugural match of East Thurrock CFC at Wyldecrest Sports Country Club, Corringham, Essex. Picture date: Saturday July 6, 2024.
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Mr McMurdock last summer. Pic: PA

When it emerged last July that he had been jailed for attacking someone, he downplayed the incident as a “teenage indiscretion”.

When spotted strolling around the conference on Saturday, Sky News asked Mr McMurdock whether he regretted that term.

The MP would not apologise for the phrase and said he hadn’t lied or ever changed his story.

“I would like to do my best to do as little harm to everyone else and at the same time accept that I was a bad person for a moment back then,” he said.

“I’m doing my best to manage the fact that something really regrettable did happen.”

Read more from Sky News:
Nigel Farage rejects Tommy Robinson after support from Elon Musk
Is Badenoch scrambling to catch up with Farage – and dancing to Musk’s tune?

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking during the Reform UK East of England conference at Chelmsford City Racecourse. Picture date: Saturday January 4, 2025.
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Mr Farage speaking during Reform UK’s East of England conference on Saturday. Pic: PA

The MP also wouldn’t say whether the party knew about his conviction prior to becoming a candidate, but leader Nigel Farage has previously said he “wasn’t vetted”.

Mr McMurdock still has not been suspended for the conflicting accounts of what happened and the party hasn’t commented on whether he would pass their new vetting system which they say is now in place for new council candidates.

One Labour MP has urged parliament and the government to make mandatory Disclosure and Barring Service (DBS) checks for any prospective parliamentary candidates in the future.

While speaking to Sky News, Mr McMurdock said he would support that motion, though no Reform MP voted for it in an early day motion when it was laid in parliament.

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Parliament urged to begin mandatory DBS criminal record checks on new MPs and peers

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Parliament urged to begin mandatory DBS criminal record checks on new MPs and peers

MPs and peers could be forced to submit to criminal record checks under proposals submitted by a new Labour MP.

In a letter seen by Sky News, Jo White urged the leader of the Commons to examine whether a new committee set up to modernise parliament should force all new members to have checks due to their access to young and vulnerable people.

She suggests in-depth background checks by the Disclosure and Barring Service – commonly known as DBS checks – as the initial stages of introducing MPs to parliament.

Candidates are currently banned from running to be an MP if they have been jailed for more than a year in the UK.

However, there is no requirement for DBS checks, something most other jobs require when applying for positions working with vulnerable people.

Ms White previously submitted an early-day motion on this issue, with cross-party signatures including 13 other Labour MPs supporting her motion.

In her letter to the committee, the Bassetlaw MP writes: “It is a privilege that, as parliamentarians, we can work with local schools, care homes and hospitals, but we must be proactive in preserving this trust.

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“Implementing a mandatory check would protect both the people we visit and ourselves. It would be key to maintaining public trust and high workplace standards across the estate and in our constituencies.”

DBS checks are standard practices for GPs, nurses, teachers and other professions. They let potential employers know if a candidate has a criminal record or is banned from working with children or vulnerable adults.

Many local authorities already run DBS checks on elected officials but it’s not standard practice in parliament.

Prospective MPs can stand for election despite having a criminal record or appearing on the child-barred list or adult-barred list unless they have served a prison term over 12 months.

In fact, they do not need to disclose any criminal behaviour to the public prior to becoming a candidate.

The main vetting process before entering the House of Commons is done through political parties, who set their own rules for carrying out any such checks.

MP James McMurdock (right) was convicted of assaulting his then girlfriend in 2006. Pic: PA
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MP James McMurdock (right) was convicted of assaulting his then girlfriend in 2006. Pic: PA

None of the Reform UK MPs have signed the early-day motion and leader Nigel Farage said last election there was “no vetting” of candidates.

This has already caused some controversy.

One Reform MP, James McMurdock, was jailed 19 years ago for repeatedly kicking his then girlfriend, according to court documents disclosed by The Times.

The South Basildon and East Thurrock MP attacked her in 2006 while drunk outside a nightclub and spent 21 days in a young offenders’ institution.

He had not publicly disclosed the conviction and described it as a “teenage indiscretion” when asked about the incident last year.

Under new rules, new MPs might have to fully disclose their criminal past.

Read more from Sky News:
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The creation of a modernisation committee was a Labour manifesto promise and now sits as a cross-party group tasked with reforming House of Commons procedures and improving standards.

The committee said it would not be commenting on submissions until it’s had time to fully consider all options, but is due to publish an initial report early this year.

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Nigel Farage rejects Tommy Robinson after support from Elon Musk

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Nigel Farage rejects Tommy Robinson after support from Elon Musk

Nigel Farage has said Tommy Robinson “won’t be” joining Reform UK after Elon Musk showed support for the jailed far-right activist on social media.

The billionaire owner of X, who has spoken positively about Reform UK and is reportedly considering making a donation to the party, has been critical of the government’s handling of child sexual exploitation across a number of towns and cities more than a decade ago.

While the Reform UK leader described the billionaire owner of X as “an absolute hero figure, particularly to young people in this country”, he distanced himself and his party from Robinson, who is currently serving an 18-month prison sentence for contempt of court.

Mr Musk endorsed the far-right activist and claimed Robinson was “telling the truth” about grooming gangs, writing on X: “Free Tommy Robinson”.

Speaking to broadcasters ahead of the start of Reform UK’s East Midlands Conference tonight, party leader Mr Farage did not directly address Mr Musk’s comments, but said: “He has a whole range of opinions, some of which I agree with very strongly, and others of which I’m more reticent about.”

He went on to say that having Mr Musk’s support is “very helpful to our cause”, describing him as “an absolute hero figure, particularly to young people in this country”.

He continued: “Everyone says, well, what about his comments on Tommy Robinson? Look, my position is perfectly clear on that. I never wanted Tommy Robinson to join UKIP, I don’t want him to join Reform UK, and he won’t be.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking to broadcasters
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said that Tommy Robinson will not be joining the party

Read more:
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Later on GB News, Mr Farage added that Mr Musk “sees Robinson as one of these people that fought against the grooming gangs”.

“But of course the truth is Tommy Robinson’s in prison not for that, but for contempt of court,” he said.

Mr Farage added: “We’re a political party aiming to win the next general election. He’s not what we need.”

How did Elon Musk become involved?

The online campaign from Mr Musk began after it emerged that Home Office minister Jess Phillips had denied requests from Oldham Council to lead a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in the borough, as the Conservatives had done in 2022.

In a letter to the authority in Greater Manchester, Ms Phillips said she believes it is “for Oldham Council alone to decide to commission an inquiry into child sexual exploitation locally, rather than for the government to intervene”.

An Oldham Council spokesman previously said: “Survivors sit at the heart of our work to end child sexual exploitation. Whatever happens in terms of future inquiries, we have promised them that their wishes will be paramount, and we will not renege on that pledge.”

Read more:
Is Kemi Badenoch dancing to Elon Musk’s tune?
Labour lose control of council as 20 councillors quit

Mr Musk posted on X multiple times about the scandal, and claimed Sir Keir Starmer had failed to bring “rape gangs” to justice when he led the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). In 2013, Sir Keir introduced new guidelines for how child sexual abuse victims should be treated and how a case should be built and presented in court.

The SpaceX and Tesla boss also endorsed posts about Robinson.

Robinson, who is 42 years old and whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, admitted at Woolwich Crown Court in October to breaching an injunction banning him from repeating libellous allegations against a Syrian refugee schoolboy, after he was successfully sued for libel in 2021.

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