UK’s 2022 weather – which saw 40C temperature record – to become ‘typical’
Last year’s multi record-breaking hot and dry weather will become “typical” in the UK in under 40 years, the Met Office has warned.
The remarkable weather of last year – when almost every month was hotter than average, wildfires torched homes and more people died in the summer – was considered extreme.
But by 2060 – potentially in the lifetime of anyone now under around 40 – that persistent hot weather will become simply average, the Met Office has said in its annual State of the UK Climate report.
And by the end of the century – when many young children today will still be alive – such heat will be regarded as cool weather.
That is assuming the world warms by around 2.4C, as is expected based on current energy policies.
Not only was 2022 the first year in the UK when heat first soared to 40C (104F), shattering the previous record by a significant 1.6C, it was also the warmest year on record. Both were made more likely by climate change.
These things “emphasise” that our climate is “changing now and it’s changing fast”, lead author Mike Kendon said.
1911’s heat record stood for 80 years but was broken on four occasions in recent times
In its annual review of the previous year’s weather, published on Thursday, the Met Office found:
• 2022 was the warmest year in records dating back to 1884
• 40C heat was hit for the first time ever
• Every month other than December was warmer than the average for the past two decades
• The period from January to August was the driest across England and Wales since 1976
• 2022 was one of the least snowy years on record when compared with the past 60 years
• Almost every species regarded as indicative of spring appeared between one and 10 days early
• Temperatures in Durham and Bradford exceeded their previous records by a striking 4C
Why 2022 is a ‘milestone in climate history’
While we “shouldn’t be surprised” by the findings, which echo previous reports, last year still marked a “milestone of climate history”, Mr Kendon said.
That is partly because temperatures topped 40C for the first time.
Read more:
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But also because the summer in particular gave “a sign of things to come in future years”, said Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, which published the document.
Most recent summers have been quite wet, but last year brought the first hot, dry summer for a while. These are the type we expect to become more common with climate change, she said.
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Greek wildfires seen from space
Can the UK cope with more heat?
Last year saw a slew of new health warnings – the Met Office issued its first red warning for extreme heat. The UK Health Security Agency issued a level four – the limit – and the government triggered a national heat emergency in England.
But the government’s newly published plan to deal with heat and other climate impacts was recently criticised as “deeply disappointing”.
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Dr Ellie Murtagh, UK Climate Adaptation Lead at the British Red Cross, also said there was a “perception gap in the UK, with people not realising the danger extreme weather can pose”.
An extra roughly 2,800 vulnerable people died during last year’s extraordinarily hot summer.
We must “ensure people most vulnerable to heat risk are able to access the targeted information, advice and support they need to take action and stay safe and healthy”.
Though only projections, they are worrying
By 2060, even in a scenario where carbon emissions start to level off, 2022 will be viewed as an average year, and by the end of the century might even be considered cool.
Although these are only predictions, they are striking, and worrying.
Because according to academics and campaigners, the UK simply is not ready for what is to come.
A glance at what happened last year gives you an idea of the scale of the difficulty.
Wildfires fuelled by dry vegetation destroyed nearly 20 properties on the edge of London. More over 65s died during the heat.
Train tracks buckled. Productivity dipped.
The government recognises the problem and has recently released an updated national adaptation programme.
But critics say the strategy still lacks ambition, scale and pace.
The independent Climate Change Committee has previously warned that there is “very limited evidence of the implementation of adaptation at the scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK across cities, communities, infrastructure, economy and ecosystems”.
There are those who argue that generally rising temperatures may well benefit the UK – fewer deaths from the cold, for example, or the potential to grow new crops.
But extreme heat is dangerous and disruptive, and one of the big problems for the UK is that unlike our neighbours in southern Europe, it is a relatively new challenge.
Dr Candice Howarth from the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, puts it like this:
“The UK needs to establish a more sensible ‘culture of heat’, learning from experiences of dealing with extreme heat across Europe and the globe, with effective communication, education and engagement on extreme heat and how people can prepare and respond.
“If the government fails to show more leadership on preparing for these extreme heat events, then we are likely to see a rise in heat-related deaths, wider impacts on workers’ health and productivity, and increasing rates of overheating in UK homes and buildings that are ill-equipped to stay cool in the summer.”
Creating a “culture of heat” in a place traditionally famous for its rain and mild temperatures will be a huge challenge, but it is one that must be met if we are to be prepared for the future scientists say is coming.
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A crew member remains missing after an oil tanker and cargo ship collided in the North Sea off the coast of East Yorkshire.
Dozens of people abandoned the vessels after the crash just before 9.50am, with the Coastguard rescuing 36 people.
All 23 on board the oil tanker Stena Immaculate are accounted for – but one of the 14 crew members of the Solong cargo ship is still missing.
A Coastguard search was called off around 9.40pm, while both vessels were both still on fire.
One of the 36 people rescued was taken to hospital.
Sky News understands there is a five-mile air and sea exclusion zone around the location of the incident, which may be widened to 10 miles if later required.
Read more: What we know about the collision
Both ships are on fire following the collision
The Stena Immaculate was carrying jet fuel and was on a short-term charter to the US Navy at the time of the incident.
The cargo ship was reportedly carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide and an unknown quantity of alcohol.
Two maritime security sources told Reuters there was “no indication” of any malicious activity or other actors involved in the incident.
Ambulances leaving the scene
‘Multiple explosions onboard’
US logistics group Crowley, which manages oil tanker Stena Immaculate, confirmed the vessel had released some jet fuel after sustaining a ruptured cargo tank.
The firm said it initiated its emergency vessel response plan and is “actively working with public agencies to contain the fire and secure the vessel”.
Crowley added: “Our first priority is the safety of the people and environment. We will provide more updates as information becomes available.”
Read more: Environmental impact of collision depends on at least three things
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Downing Street ‘monitoring situation’
The prime minister’s official spokesman said it was an “extremely concerning situation”.
He said: “We thank the emergency services for their rapid response. I understand the Department for Transport is working closely with the coastguard to help support the response to the incident.
“We’re obviously monitoring the situation, we’ll continue to coordinate the response and we’re grateful to emergency personnel for their continued efforts.”
Meanwhile, Hull City Council leader Mike Ross has called for the UK government to set out a rapid response plan in response to the events.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander later praised the work of the emergency services, adding: “The Maritime Accident Investigation Branch has begun a preliminary assessment and I am working closely with the MCA (Maritime and Coastguard Agency) as they conduct an assessment of any counter pollution response which may be required over the coming days.”
Coastguard’s emergency message
Moments after the collision, a message broadcast by the Coastguard warned other ships to stay away from the area.
In audio shared on social media, the Coastguard can be heard warning Solong “has collided” with Stena Immaculate.
“Both vessels are abandoning,” the message continued.
“Vessels who have firefighting equipment or can assist with search and rescue, contact Humber Coastguard.
“Stena is carrying Jet-A1 fuel, which is on fire and in the water. Vessels – remain at safe distance.”
East Midlands Ambulance Service sent an incident response unit
‘Inspectors are gathering evidence’
The Marine Accident Investigation Branch is now investigating the collision.
A spokesperson said: “Our team of inspectors and support staff are gathering evidence and undertaking a preliminary assessment of the accident to determine our next steps.”
The oil tanker was sailing under a US flag, while the Solong cargo ship was Portuguese-flagged, according to Marinetraffic.com.
The Solong had been due to travel to Rotterdam in the Netherlands after departing from Grangemouth in Scotland on Monday morning, Marinetraffic.com shows.
A map from Marinetraffic.com shows the oil tanker (red) and the cargo ship before the crash
Moving images on the tracking site suggest the oil tanker had remained stationary as the Solong headed straight towards it before the collision.
It is believed the Stena Immaculate, which was travelling from Greece to the UK, was anchored at the time.
David McFarlane, director Maritime Risk and Safety Consultants, told Sky News it can take up to an hour to raise an anchor – meaning the tanker might not have had time to get out of the way.
It comes as Martyn Boyers, chief executive of the Port of Grimsby East, said the container ship may have been on autopilot at the time of the crash.
“Autopilot just steers a course, they don’t deviate, there’s no bend in the sea,” he added.
The Portuguese-flagged vessel Solong. File pic: NAC
The US flagged Stena Immaculate. File pic: Kees Torn
Video shows smoke billowing from the ships. Pic: North Yorkshire Weather Updates
Visibility in the area had been poor before the collision this morning, according to the Met Office.
“Areas of fog and low cloud lifting as winds increase through the morning, with some warm, if rather hazy sunny spells expected in places for a time,” it said on Monday morning.
The crash involving a cargo ship and oil tanker off the East Yorkshire coast is bad news for the sea, fish and air in the area. What we don’t know yet is quite how bad it will be.
That depends on a few things – but the speed of the collision, clouds of filthy black smoke from the fires and the leaked fuel are certainly worrying.
Firstly, it matters what was on board those two massive vessels.
Follow live: Jet fuel spilling into sea after tanker collision
Analytics firm Vortexa estimates the 183m-long tanker was carrying about 130,000 barrels of jet fuel (kerosene), which is now leaking into the sea.
Jet fuel is not as sticky or viscous as heavier types of oil, thankfully, so it’s less likely to clog the feathers and fur of birds and seals. It can also be broken down by natural bacteria.
But it can still poison fish and kill animals and plants on the shoreline if it makes its way into the soil there.
The Marine Conservation Society has pointed out the site in the Humber estuary is close to some protected areas and is important for seabirds and harbour porpoises.
And both ships will have been powered by a dirtier, heavier kind of oil – likely marine gas oil or heavy fuel oil, though we don’t know the details yet.
Heavy fuel oil is nasty stuff.
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Cheap, thick and tar-like, it can smother animals and is very dangerous if they consume it, and is extremely difficult to clean up. Let’s hope this isn’t creeping around the North Sea already.
We don’t know how much of either the jet fuel or the oil powering the ships has leaked, or how much will be burned off in the violent fires – which themselves are ploughing black smoke and filthy air pollution into the surrounding atmosphere.
And we don’t know for sure what was on the Solong cargo ship and if, or what, will go into the sea.
Cargo ship ‘had sodium cyanide on board’
It was carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide among other cargo, according to a report from maritime data provider Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
The container vessel was also transporting an unknown quantity of alcohol, said the casualty report – an assessment of incidents at sea – citing a message from the local coastguard.
Plastic takes hundreds of years to break down, and potentially can choke or trap animals.
Many of us have seen that uncomfortable viral video of a turtle having a straw yanked out of its nose. Previous accidents on cargo ships have seen plastic Lego pieces wash up in Cornwall 25 years later.
Read more:
How UK North Sea platforms dump gas
Secondly, the impact depends on the sea and weather conditions around it.
Things like the wind and currents affect how an oil spill spreads in the sea. Scientists can draw up computer models to simulate how the oil could behave.
Thirdly, it matters how quickly this is all tackled and then cleaned up, if necessary, and if it can be.
Usually the slower the response, the worse the impact.
The coastguard has said the incident “remains ongoing” and it has started assessing the “likely counter pollution response” that will be required.
Such a response might need the help of numerous public bodies: the government environment department, the transport department, the Environment Agency and the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
So for now the best we can hope for – aside from the welfare of the people involved – is that not all the oil is spilled or burnt, that conditions are calm and that rescuers and those cleaning up can work swiftly.
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