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Last year’s multi record-breaking hot and dry weather will become “typical” in the UK in under 40 years, the Met Office has warned.

The remarkable weather of last year – when almost every month was hotter than average, wildfires torched homes and more people died in the summer – was considered extreme.

But by 2060 – potentially in the lifetime of anyone now under around 40 – that persistent hot weather will become simply average, the Met Office has said in its annual State of the UK Climate report.

And by the end of the century – when many young children today will still be alive – such heat will be regarded as cool weather.

That is assuming the world warms by around 2.4C, as is expected based on current energy policies.

Not only was 2022 the first year in the UK when heat first soared to 40C (104F), shattering the previous record by a significant 1.6C, it was also the warmest year on record. Both were made more likely by climate change.

These things “emphasise” that our climate is “changing now and it’s changing fast”, lead author Mike Kendon said.

Record temperatures
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1911’s heat record stood for 80 years but was broken on four occasions in recent times

In its annual review of the previous year’s weather, published on Thursday, the Met Office found:

• 2022 was the warmest year in records dating back to 1884

• 40C heat was hit for the first time ever

• Every month other than December was warmer than the average for the past two decades

• The period from January to August was the driest across England and Wales since 1976

• 2022 was one of the least snowy years on record when compared with the past 60 years

• Almost every species regarded as indicative of spring appeared between one and 10 days early

• Temperatures in Durham and Bradford exceeded their previous records by a striking 4C

Why 2022 is a ‘milestone in climate history’

While we “shouldn’t be surprised” by the findings, which echo previous reports, last year still marked a “milestone of climate history”, Mr Kendon said.

That is partly because temperatures topped 40C for the first time.

Read more:
Scientists warn deadly extreme heat ‘rapidly on the rise’ – and predict how often heatwaves will now occur
Rishi Sunak says climate targets must not impose ‘unnecessary’ costs

But also because the summer in particular gave “a sign of things to come in future years”, said Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, which published the document.

Most recent summers have been quite wet, but last year brought the first hot, dry summer for a while. These are the type we expect to become more common with climate change, she said.

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Greek wildfires seen from space

Can the UK cope with more heat?

Last year saw a slew of new health warnings – the Met Office issued its first red warning for extreme heat. The UK Health Security Agency issued a level four – the limit – and the government triggered a national heat emergency in England.

But the government’s newly published plan to deal with heat and other climate impacts was recently criticised as “deeply disappointing”.

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Dr Ellie Murtagh, UK Climate Adaptation Lead at the British Red Cross, also said there was a “perception gap in the UK, with people not realising the danger extreme weather can pose”.

An extra roughly 2,800 vulnerable people died during last year’s extraordinarily hot summer.

We must “ensure people most vulnerable to heat risk are able to access the targeted information, advice and support they need to take action and stay safe and healthy”.

Though only projections, they are worrying


Hannah Thomas-Peter

Hannah Thomas-Peter

Climate change and energy correspondent

@hannahtpsky

By 2060, even in a scenario where carbon emissions start to level off, 2022 will be viewed as an average year, and by the end of the century might even be considered cool.

Although these are only predictions, they are striking, and worrying.

Because according to academics and campaigners, the UK simply is not ready for what is to come.

A glance at what happened last year gives you an idea of the scale of the difficulty.

Wildfires fuelled by dry vegetation destroyed nearly 20 properties on the edge of London. More over 65s died during the heat.

Train tracks buckled. Productivity dipped.

The government recognises the problem and has recently released an updated national adaptation programme.

But critics say the strategy still lacks ambition, scale and pace.

The independent Climate Change Committee has previously warned that there is “very limited evidence of the implementation of adaptation at the scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK across cities, communities, infrastructure, economy and ecosystems”.

There are those who argue that generally rising temperatures may well benefit the UK – fewer deaths from the cold, for example, or the potential to grow new crops.

But extreme heat is dangerous and disruptive, and one of the big problems for the UK is that unlike our neighbours in southern Europe, it is a relatively new challenge.

Dr Candice Howarth from the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, puts it like this:

“The UK needs to establish a more sensible ‘culture of heat’, learning from experiences of dealing with extreme heat across Europe and the globe, with effective communication, education and engagement on extreme heat and how people can prepare and respond.

“If the government fails to show more leadership on preparing for these extreme heat events, then we are likely to see a rise in heat-related deaths, wider impacts on workers’ health and productivity, and increasing rates of overheating in UK homes and buildings that are ill-equipped to stay cool in the summer.”

Creating a “culture of heat” in a place traditionally famous for its rain and mild temperatures will be a huge challenge, but it is one that must be met if we are to be prepared for the future scientists say is coming.

Watch The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Scale of Chinese espionage in UK revealed as evidence in collapsed spy trial is published

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Scale of Chinese espionage in UK revealed as evidence in collapsed spy trial is published

The extent of Chinese spying carried out on UK parliamentarians has been unveiled after evidence in the collapsed China spy trial was published.

Three witness statements from the government were released late on Wednesday night amid confusion surrounding why the prosecutions fell apart.

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Former parliamentary researcher Christopher Cash, 30, from Whitechapel, east London, and teacher Christopher Berry, 33, from Witney, Oxfordshire, were charged with passing politically sensitive information to a Chinese intelligence agent between December 2021 and February 2023. They have both denied the allegations.

In a statement after the government published the statements, Mr Cash reiterated he was “completely innocent”.

The collapse of the trial, meaning he can’t prove it, has put him in an “impossible position”, he said.

“At no point did I intentionally assist Chinese intelligence,” he added.

What does the government’s evidence say?

In the documents, it was revealed information about internal Tory politics – when the party was in government – was being fed to a Chinese intelligence handler known as “Alex”, according to counterterrorism command SO15.

They were written by Matthew Collins, the deputy national security adviser, who has been in post the whole time.

This includes Mr Cash working as a researcher and “directly contributing to the policy advice being provided to Rishi Sunak”.

The evidence adds: “It is axiomatic that this is prejudicial to the safety or interests of the UK for the Chinese state to have indirect access to one of the individuals providing policy advice to the now prime minister on China, with the potential to influence that advice.”

Mr Cash described the witness statements as “completely devoid of the context that would have been given at trial”.

‘Enemy’ status?

The prosecution of Mr Cash and Mr Berry collapsed in the past few weeks – with the director of public prosecutions saying it had not received enough evidence from the government to proceed.

This related to whether China could be considered an “enemy” under the Official Secrets Act 1911.

In the most recent document from Mr Collins, dated 4 August this year, he quotes the Labour manifesto in saying the government position, saying: “It is important for me to emphasise, however, that the UK government is committed to pursuing a positive relationship with China to strengthen understanding, cooperation and stability.

“The government’s position is that we will co-operate where we can; compete where we need to; and challenge where we must, including on issues of national security.”

While the statements repeatedly highlight the “threat” of China to the UK, they also speak of the importance of the trading relationship, and do not use the word “enemy”.

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What does China spy row involve?

The publication of the documents comes after Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer confirmed he would do so in parliament at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs).

The prime minister had previously said the government would not publish the evidence as it would not have been allowed by the CPS – before the CPS then denied this was the case.

Read more on China controversy
Accusations of ‘cover-up’ over collapse of trial
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Starmer denies ministers involved in trial collapse

Speaking at PMQs, Sir Keir said: “Last night, the Crown Prosecution Service clarified that, in their view, the decision whether to publish the witness statements of the DNSA [deputy national security adviser] is for the government.

“I have therefore carefully considered this question this morning, and after legal advice, I have decided to publish the witness statement.”

Opponents of the government have accused it of deliberately collapsing the trial – something Downing Street has denied.

Stephen Parkinson, the head of the CPS, said in a statement the prosecution was dropped after attempts to get more evidence from the government “over many months” proved unfruitful.

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Go big with tax hikes or risk ‘groundhog day’, chancellor told

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Go big with tax hikes or risk 'groundhog day', chancellor told

Rachel Reeves faces the prospect of another “groundhog day” unless next month’s budget goes further than plugging an estimated £22bn black hole in the public finances, according to a respected thinktank.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said there was a “strong case” for the chancellor to substantially increase the £10bn headroom she has previously given herself against her own debt rules, or risk further repeats of needing to restore the buffer in the years ahead.

It said Ms Reeves could bring the cost of servicing government debt down through ending constant chatter over the limited breathing space she has previously given herself, in uncertain times for the global economy.

The chancellor herself used an interview with Sky News this week to admit tax rises were being considered, and appeared to concede she was trapped in a “doom loom” of annual increases.

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Tax hikes possible, Reeves tells Sky News

What is the chancellor facing?

Speculation over the likely contents of the budget has been rife for months and intensified after U-turns by the government on planned welfare reforms and on winter fuel payments.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s determination on the size of the black hole facing Ms Reeves could come in well above or below the IFS estimate of £22bn, which includes the restoration of the £10bn headroom but not the cost of any possible policy announcements such as the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap.

Economists broadly agree tax rises are inevitable, as borrowing more would be prohibitive given the bond market’s concerns about the UK’s fiscal position.

Long-term borrowing costs have recently stood at levels not seen since the last century.

What are her tax options?

While there has been talk of new levies on bank profits and the wealthy, to name but a few rumours, the IFS analysis suggests the best way to raise the bulk of sufficient funds is by hiking income tax, rather than making the tax system even more complicated.

Earlier this week, it suggested reforms, such as to property taxes, could raise tens of billions of pounds.

But any move on income tax would mean breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to target the three main sources of revenue from income, employee national insurance contributions and VAT.

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Is Labour plotting a ‘wealth tax’?

She is particularly unlikely to raise VAT, as it would risk fanning the flames of inflation, already expected by the International Monetary Fund to run at the highest rate across the G7 this year and next.

Business argues it should be spared.

The chancellor’s first budget, which raised taxes by £40bn, has been blamed by the sector for raising costs in the economy since April via higher minimum pay and employer national insurance contributions.

They say the measures have dragged on employment, investment, and growth.

Read more:
Reeves plots budget boost to entrepreneur tax incentives
Four big themes as IMF takes aim at UK growth and inflation

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘A situation of her own making’

Analysis by Barclays, revealed within the IFS’s Green Budget, suggested inflation was on course to return to target by the middle of next year but that the UK’s jobless rate could top 5% from its current 4.8% level.

Ms Reeves, who has blamed the challenges she faces on past austerity, Brexit and a continuing drag from the mini-budget of the Liz Truss government in 2022, was urged by the IFS to not harm growth through budget measures.

IFS director Helen Miller said: “Last autumn, the chancellor confidently pronounced she wouldn’t be coming back with more tax rises; she almost certainly will.

“For Rachel Reeves, the budget will feel like groundhog day. This is, to a large extent, a situation of her own making.

“When choosing to operate her fiscal rules with such teeny tiny headroom, Ms Reeves would have known that run-of-the-mill forecast changes could easily blow her off course.”

Ms Miller said there was a “strong case for the chancellor to build more headroom against her fiscal rules”, adding: “Persistent uncertainty is damaging to the economic outlook.”

‘No return to austerity’

A Treasury spokesperson responded: “We won’t comment on speculation. The chancellor’s non-negotiable fiscal rules provide the stability needed to help to keep interest rates low while also prioritising investment to support long-term growth.

“We were the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but for too many people our economy feels stuck. They are working day in, day out without getting ahead.

“That needs to change, and that is why the chancellor will continue to relentlessly cut red tape, reform outdated planning rules, and invest in public infrastructure to boost growth – not return to austerity or decline.”

The budget is scheduled for 26 November.

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PPE Medpro will be pursued ‘with everything we’ve got’ Wes Streeting says

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PPE Medpro will be pursued 'with everything we've got' Wes Streeting says

The Government has vowed to pursue a company linked to Baroness Michelle Mone for millions of pounds paid for defective PPE at the height of the COVID pandemic after a High Court deadline passed without repayment.

Earlier this month, the High Court ruled that PPE Medpro, a company founded by Baroness Mone’s husband Doug Barrowman and promoted in government by the Tory peer, was in breach of contract and gave it two weeks to repay the £122m plus interest of £23m.

In a statement, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “At a time of national crisis, PPE Medpro sold the previous government substandard kit and pocketed taxpayers’ hard-earned cash.

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“PPE Medpro has failed to meet the deadline to pay – they still owe us over £145m, with interest now accruing daily.”

It is understood that is being charged at a rate of 8%.

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“We will pursue PPE Medpro with everything we’ve got to get these funds back where they belong – in our NHS,” Mr Streeting concluded.

Earlier a spokesman for Mr Barrowman and the consortium behind the company said the government had not responded to an offer from PPE Medpro to discuss a settlement.

“Very disappointingly, the government has made no effort to respond or seek to enter into discussions,” he said.

During the trial PPE Medpro offered to pay £23m to settle the case but was rejected by the Department of Health and Social Care.

While Mr Barrowman has described himself as the “ultimate beneficial owner” of PPE Medpro, and says £29m of profit from the deal was paid into a trust benefitting his family including Baroness Mone and her children, he was never a director and the couple are not personally liable for the money.

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£122m bill that may never be paid

PPE Medpro filed for insolvency the day before Mrs Justice Cockerill’s finding of breach of contract was published, and the company’s most recent accounts show assets of just £666,000.

Court-appointed administrators will now be responsible for recovering as much money as possible on behalf of creditors, principally the DHSC.

With PPE Medpro in administration and potentially limited avenues to recover funds, there is a risk that the government may recover nothing while incurring further legal expenses.

In June 2020, PPE Medpro won contracts worth a total of £203m to provide 210m masks and 25m surgical gowns after Baroness Mone contacted ministers including Michael Gove on the company’s behalf.

While the £81m mask contract was fulfilled the gowns were rejected for failing sterility standards, and in 2022 the DHSC sued. Earlier this month Mrs Justice Cockerill ruled that PPE Medpro was in breach of contract and liable to repay the full amount.

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Baroness Mone ‘should resign’

Mr Barrowman has previously named several other companies as part of the gown supply including two registered in the UK, and last week his spokesman said there was a “strong case” for the administrator to pursue them for the money.

One of the companies named has denied any connection to PPE Medpro and two others have not responded to requests for comment.

Insolvency experts say that administrators and creditors, in this case the government, may have some recourse to pursue individuals and entities beyond the liable company, but any process is likely to be lengthy and expensive.

Julie Palmer, a partner at Begbies Traynor, told Sky News: “The administrators will want to look at what’s happened to what look like significant profits made on these contracts.

“If I was looking at this I would want to establish the exact timeline, at what point were the profits taken out.

“They may also want to consider whether there is a claim for wrongful trading, because that effectively pierces the corporate veil of protection of a limited company, and can allow proceedings against company officers personally.

“The net of a director can also be expanded to shadow directors, people sitting in the background quite clearly with a degree of control of the management of the company, in which case some claims may rest against them.”

A spokesman for Forvis Mazars, one of the joint administrators of PPE Medpro, did not comment other than to confirm the firm’s appointment.

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