UK’s 2022 weather – which saw 40C temperature record – to become ‘typical’
Last year’s multi record-breaking hot and dry weather will become “typical” in the UK in under 40 years, the Met Office has warned.
The remarkable weather of last year – when almost every month was hotter than average, wildfires torched homes and more people died in the summer – was considered extreme.
But by 2060 – potentially in the lifetime of anyone now under around 40 – that persistent hot weather will become simply average, the Met Office has said in its annual State of the UK Climate report.
And by the end of the century – when many young children today will still be alive – such heat will be regarded as cool weather.
That is assuming the world warms by around 2.4C, as is expected based on current energy policies.
Not only was 2022 the first year in the UK when heat first soared to 40C (104F), shattering the previous record by a significant 1.6C, it was also the warmest year on record. Both were made more likely by climate change.
These things “emphasise” that our climate is “changing now and it’s changing fast”, lead author Mike Kendon said.
1911’s heat record stood for 80 years but was broken on four occasions in recent times
In its annual review of the previous year’s weather, published on Thursday, the Met Office found:
• 2022 was the warmest year in records dating back to 1884
• 40C heat was hit for the first time ever
• Every month other than December was warmer than the average for the past two decades
• The period from January to August was the driest across England and Wales since 1976
• 2022 was one of the least snowy years on record when compared with the past 60 years
• Almost every species regarded as indicative of spring appeared between one and 10 days early
• Temperatures in Durham and Bradford exceeded their previous records by a striking 4C
Why 2022 is a ‘milestone in climate history’
While we “shouldn’t be surprised” by the findings, which echo previous reports, last year still marked a “milestone of climate history”, Mr Kendon said.
That is partly because temperatures topped 40C for the first time.
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But also because the summer in particular gave “a sign of things to come in future years”, said Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, which published the document.
Most recent summers have been quite wet, but last year brought the first hot, dry summer for a while. These are the type we expect to become more common with climate change, she said.
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Greek wildfires seen from space
Can the UK cope with more heat?
Last year saw a slew of new health warnings – the Met Office issued its first red warning for extreme heat. The UK Health Security Agency issued a level four – the limit – and the government triggered a national heat emergency in England.
But the government’s newly published plan to deal with heat and other climate impacts was recently criticised as “deeply disappointing”.
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Dr Ellie Murtagh, UK Climate Adaptation Lead at the British Red Cross, also said there was a “perception gap in the UK, with people not realising the danger extreme weather can pose”.
An extra roughly 2,800 vulnerable people died during last year’s extraordinarily hot summer.
We must “ensure people most vulnerable to heat risk are able to access the targeted information, advice and support they need to take action and stay safe and healthy”.
Though only projections, they are worrying
By 2060, even in a scenario where carbon emissions start to level off, 2022 will be viewed as an average year, and by the end of the century might even be considered cool.
Although these are only predictions, they are striking, and worrying.
Because according to academics and campaigners, the UK simply is not ready for what is to come.
A glance at what happened last year gives you an idea of the scale of the difficulty.
Wildfires fuelled by dry vegetation destroyed nearly 20 properties on the edge of London. More over 65s died during the heat.
Train tracks buckled. Productivity dipped.
The government recognises the problem and has recently released an updated national adaptation programme.
But critics say the strategy still lacks ambition, scale and pace.
The independent Climate Change Committee has previously warned that there is “very limited evidence of the implementation of adaptation at the scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK across cities, communities, infrastructure, economy and ecosystems”.
There are those who argue that generally rising temperatures may well benefit the UK – fewer deaths from the cold, for example, or the potential to grow new crops.
But extreme heat is dangerous and disruptive, and one of the big problems for the UK is that unlike our neighbours in southern Europe, it is a relatively new challenge.
Dr Candice Howarth from the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, puts it like this:
“The UK needs to establish a more sensible ‘culture of heat’, learning from experiences of dealing with extreme heat across Europe and the globe, with effective communication, education and engagement on extreme heat and how people can prepare and respond.
“If the government fails to show more leadership on preparing for these extreme heat events, then we are likely to see a rise in heat-related deaths, wider impacts on workers’ health and productivity, and increasing rates of overheating in UK homes and buildings that are ill-equipped to stay cool in the summer.”
Creating a “culture of heat” in a place traditionally famous for its rain and mild temperatures will be a huge challenge, but it is one that must be met if we are to be prepared for the future scientists say is coming.
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A senior Labour MP has said the government needs to take “corrective action” over planned disability benefit cuts – as Sir Keir Starmer faces a growing backbench rebellion.
Tan Dhesi, chair of the influential Commons defence committee, told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge the “disappointing” local election results show the government must listen and learn, particularly over welfare reforms.
The government has proposed tightening the eligibility requirements for the personal independent payment, known as PIP.
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A claimant must score a minimum of four points on one PIP daily living activity, such as preparing food, washing and bathing, using the toilet or reading, to receive the daily living element of the benefit.
Mr Dhesi, the MP for Slough, said “corrective action” needs to be taken but insisted if the government changed tact, it would not be a U-turn as the disability cuts were only proposals.
Tan Dhesi spoke to Sky’s Sophy Ridge
“A government which is in listening mode should be looking at what the electorate is saying,” he said.
“And we need to make sure that it’s our moral duty, responsibility, to look after the most vulnerable within our community, whether that’s in Slough, whether that’s elsewhere across the country.
“So, I hope that the government will be taking on board that feedback and many of us as MPs are giving that feedback in various meetings happening here in Westminster and then we need to take corrective action.”
Alex Davies-Jones said the government was seeking to ‘protect the vulnerable’
Minister Alex Davies-Jones told the Politics Hub a Labour government “will always seek to protect the most vulnerable” and it wants to “listen to people who have got real lived experience”.
She added she has the “utmost respect for Tan, he’s a great constituency MP and he’s doing exactly what he should be doing, is representing his constituency”.
Sir Keir is facing a rebellion from Labour MPs, with about 40 in the Red Wall – Labour’s traditional heartlands in the north of England – reposting a statement on social media in which they said the leadership’s response to the local elections had “fallen on deaf ears”.
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Starmer defends winter fuel cuts
Several backbench Labour MPs also spoke out against the plans during a debate on PIP and disabled people in parliament on Wednesday.
Ian Byrne, MP for Liverpool West Derby, said he would “swim through vomit to vote against” the proposed changes and said: “This is not what the Labour Party was formed to do.”
Bell Ribeiro-Addy, the MP for Clapham and Brixton Hill, said she feared tightening PIP eligibility would cause deaths, adding: “Lest we forget that study that attributed 330,000 excess deaths in Britain between 2012 and 2019 to the last round of austerity cuts [under the Conservative government].”
Diane Abbott, the longest-serving female MP, accused the government of putting forward “contradictory arguments”.
“On the one hand, they insist they are helping the disabled by putting them back to work,” she said.
“But on the other hand, they say this cut will save £9bn. Well, you can’t do both.”
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‘I’ll struggle if I lose disability support’
However, fellow Labour MP David Pinto-Duschinsky, said MPs cannot “ignore this issue” of health-related benefit claimant figures rising at “twice the rate of underlying health conditions”.
Responding for the government, social security minister Sir Stephen Timms said PIP claims were set to “more than double, from two million to over 4.3 million this decade”.
“It would certainly not be in the interests of people currently claiming the benefits for the government to bury its head in the sand over that rate of increase,” he added.
A man whose dismembered body was found in a suitcase had raped and blackmailed a teenager, a court has heard.
The remains of Albert Alfonso, 62, and Paul Longworth, 71, were found in a suitcase and trunk which had been left near the Clifton Suspension Bridge in Bristol in July 2024.
Yostin Mosquera is on trial at the Old Bailey in London accused of murdering and dismembering Mr Alfonso and Mr Longworth.
The 35-year-old denies both murders but has admitted the manslaughter of Mr Alfonso.
A witness, giving evidence under the pseudonym James Smith, appeared at the trial by video link on Wednesday.
Mr Smith said he met Mr Alfonso nearly 20 years ago when he was around 17 or 18 and had gone to his flat for drinks.
He said he remembered drinking heavily and then waking up with a “banging headache”.
“I said to him, ‘what’s happened?’ – he showed me a video of me on all fours and he was penetrating me,” he told the court.
“I didn’t know what to do. I was mortified. At this point, I didn’t know my sexuality – I was confused and scared.”
He said Mr Alfonso told him if he did “favours”, the video would never be shared.
Under cross-examination, defence barrister Tom Little KC asked: “Does it cross your mind, looking back, that you were raped?”
“Now, yes,” Mr Smith replied.
“And does it cross your mind that your drink may have been spiked?”, the barrister asked.
“Now, yes,” the witness responded.
“Does it cross your mind that you were groomed by Albert Alfonso?”, Mr Little asked.
“Now, yes,” Mr Smith said.
After the alleged incident, the two met regularly, with Mr Alfonso paying Mr Smith around £150 for each sexual encounter, the court heard.
During the COVID pandemic, the witness said he became closer with Mr Alfonso and began spending time with Mr Longworth.
Mr Smith told the court he was later introduced to Mosquera.
Yostin Mosquera is on trial at the Old Bailey. Pic: Metropolitan Police/PA
He said the relationship between Mosquera and Mr Alfonso was “good – very good”.
“I didn’t see anything that seemed like they disliked each other,” he added.
He described Mr Longworth as someone who “wouldn’t hurt a fly”.
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Mr Smith said the final time he saw Mr Alfonso and Mr Longworth was on a Friday evening before the bodies were discovered.
“Albert gave me a hug, Paul gave me a hug, and that was the last I heard of those two,” he said.
The trial continues.
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