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Updated at 11:25 a.m. ET on July 20, 2023

Three years ago, while the nations attention was on the 2020 presidential election, voters in Oregon took a dramatic step back from Americas long-running War on Drugs. By a 17-point margin, Oregonians approved Ballot Measure 110, which eliminated criminal penalties for possessing small amounts of any drug, including cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine. When the policy went into effect early the next year, it lifted the fear of prosecution for the states drug users and launched Oregon on an experiment to determine whether a long-sought goal of the drug-policy reform movementdecriminalizationcould help solve Americas drug problems.

Early results of this reform effort, the first of its kind in any state, are now coming into view, and so far, they are not encouraging. State leaders have acknowledged faults with the policys implementation and enforcement measures. And Oregons drug problems have not improved. Last year, the state experienced one of the sharpest rises in overdose deaths in the nation and had one of the highest percentages of adults with a substance-use disorder. During one two-week period last month, three children under the age of 4 overdosed in Portland after ingesting fentanyl.

For decades, drug policy in America centered on using law enforcement to target people who sold, possessed, or used drugsan approach long supported by both Democratic and Republican politicians. Only in recent years, amid an epidemic of opioid overdoses and a national reconsideration of racial inequities in the criminal-justice system, has the drug-policy status quo begun to break down, as a coalition of health workers, criminal-justice-reform advocates, and drug-user activists have lobbied for a more compassionate and nuanced response. The new approach emphasizes reducing overdoses, stopping the spread of infectious disease, and providing drug users with the resources they needcounseling, housing, transportationto stabilize their lives and gain control over their drug use.

Oregons Measure 110 was viewed as an opportunity to prove that activists most groundbreaking ideasharply reducing the role of law enforcement in the governments response to drugscould work. The measure also earmarked hundreds of millions of dollars in cannabis tax revenue for building a statewide treatment network that advocates promised would do what police and prosecutors couldnt: help drug users stop or reduce their drug use and become healthy, engaged members of their communities. The day after the measure passed, Kassandra Frederique, executive director of the Drug Policy Alliance, one of the nations most prominent drug-policy reform organizations, issued a statement calling the vote a historic, paradigm-shifting win and predicting that Oregon would become a model and starting point for states across the country to decriminalize drug use.

Sam Quinones: Americas approach to addiction has gone off the rails

But three years later, with rising overdoses and delays in treatment funding, even some of the measures supporters now believe that the policy needs to be changed. In a nonpartisan statewide poll earlier this year, more than 60 percent of respondents blamed Measure 110 for making drug addiction, homelessness, and crime worse. A majority, including a majority of Democrats, said they supported bringing back criminal penalties for drug possession. This years legislative session, which ended in late June, saw at least a dozen Measure 110related proposals from Democrats and Republicans alike, ranging from technical fixes to full restoration of criminal penalties for drug possession. Two significant changestighter restrictions on fentanyl and more state oversight of how Measure 110 funding is distributedpassed with bipartisan support.

Few people consider Measure 110 a success out of the gate, Tony Morse, the policy and advocacy director for Oregon Recovers, told me. The organization, which promotes policy solutions to the states addiction crisis, initially opposed Measure 110; now it supports funding the policy, though it also wants more state money for in-patient treatment and detox services. As Morse put it, If you take away the criminal-justice system as a pathway that gets people into treatment, you need to think about what is going to replace it.

Many advocates say the new policy simply needs more time to prove itself, even if they also acknowledge that parts of the ballot measure had flaws; advocates worked closely with lawmakers on the oversight bill that passed last month. Were building the plane as we fly it, Haven Wheelock, a program supervisor at a homeless-services provider in Portland who helped put Measure 110 on the ballot, told me. We tried the War on Drugs for 50 years, and it didnt work It hurts my heart every time someone says we need to repeal this before we even give it a chance.Workers from the organization Central City Concern hand out Narcan in Portland, Oregon, on April 5. (Jordan Gale)

Measure 110 went into effect at a time of dramatic change in U.S. drug policy. Departing from precedent, the Biden administration has endorsed and increased federal funding for a public-health strategy called harm reduction; rather than pushing for abstinence, harm reduction emphasizes keeping drug users safefor instance, through the distribution of clean syringes and overdose-reversal medications. The term harm reduction appeared five times in the ballot text of Measure 110, which forbids funding recipients from mandating abstinence.

Matt Sutton, the director of external relations for the Drug Policy Alliance, which helped write Measure 110 and spent more than $5 million to pass it, told me that reform advocates viewed the measure as the start of a nationwide decriminalization push. The effort started in Oregon because the state had been an early adopter of marijuana legalization and is considered a drug-policy-reform leader. Success would mean showing the rest of the country that people did think we should invest in a public-health approach instead of criminalization, Sutton said.

To achieve this goal, Measure 110 enacted two major changes to Oregons drug laws. First, minor drug possession was downgraded from a misdemeanor to a violation, similar to a traffic ticket. Under the new law, users caught with up to 1 gram of heroin or methamphetamine, or up to 40 oxycodone pills, are charged a $100 fine, which can be waived if they call a treatment-referral hotline. (Selling, trafficking, and possessing large amounts of drugs remain criminal offenses in Oregon.) Second, the law set aside a portion of state cannabis tax revenue every two years to fund a statewide network of harm-reduction and other services. A grant-making panel was created to oversee the funding process. At least six members of the panel were required to be directly involved in providing services to drug users; at least two had to be active or former drug users themselves; and three were to be members of communities that have been disproportionately impacted by drug criminalization, according to the ballot measure.

Backers of Measure 110 said the law was modeled on drug policies in Portugal, where personal drug possession was decriminalized two decades ago. But Oregons enforcement-and-treatment-referral system differs from Portugals. Users caught with drugs in Portugal are referred to a civil commission that evaluates their drug use and recommends treatment if needed, with civil sanctions for noncompliance. Portugals state-run health system also funds a nationwide network of treatment services, many of which focus on sobriety. Sutton said drafters of Measure 110 wanted to avoid anything that might resemble a criminal tribunal or coercing drug users into treatment. People respond best when theyre ready to access those services in a voluntary way, he said.

Almost immediately after taking effect,Measure 110 encountered problems. A state audit published this year found that the new law was vague about how state officials should oversee the awarding of money to new treatment programs, and set unrealistic timelines for evaluating and funding treatment proposals. As a result, the funding process was left largely to the grant-making panel, most of whose members lacked experience in designing, evaluating and administrating a governmental-grant-application process, according to the audit. Last year, supporters of Measure 110 accused state health officials, preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic, of giving the panel insufficient direction and resources to handle a flood of grant applications. The state health authority acknowledged missteps in the grant-making process.

The audit described a chaotic process, with more than a dozen canceled meetings, potential conflicts of interest in the selection of funding recipients, and lines of applicant evaluations left blank. Full distribution of the first biennial payout of cannabis tax revenue$302 million for harm reduction, housing, and other servicesdid not occur until late 2022, almost two years after Measure 110 passed. Figures released by the state last month show that, in the second half of 2022, recipients of Measure 110 funding provided some form of service to roughly 50,000 clients, though the Oregon Health Authority has said that a single individual could be counted multiple times in that total. (A study released last year by public-health researchers in Oregon found that, as of 2020, more than 650,000 Oregonians required, but were not receiving, treatment for a substance-use disorder.)

From the May 2020 issue: Americas other epidemic

Meanwhile, the new laws enforcement provisions have proved ineffectual. Of 5,299 drug-possession cases filed in Oregon circuit courts since Measure 110 went into effect, 3,381 resulted in a recipient failing to pay the fine or appear in court and facing no further penalties, according to the Oregon Judicial Department; about 1,300 tickets were dismissed or are pending. The state audit found that, during its first 15 months in operation, the treatment-referral hotline received just 119 calls, at a cost to the state of $7,000 per call. A survey of law-enforcement officers conducted by researchers at Portland State University found that, as of July 2022, officers were issuing an average of just 300 drug-possession tickets a month statewide, compared with 600 drug-possession arrests a month before Measure 110 took effect and close to 1,200 monthly arrests prior to the outbreak of COVID-19.

Focusing on these tickets even though theyll be ineffectiveits not a great use of your resources, Sheriff Nate Sickler of Jackson County, in the rural southern part of the state, told me of his departments approach.

Advocates have celebrated a plunge in arrests. For reducing arrests of people of color, its been an overwhelming success, says Mike Marshall, the director of Oregon Recovers. But critics say that sidelining law enforcement has made it harder to persuade some drug users to stop using. Sickler cited the example of drug-court programs, which multiple studies have shown to be highly effective, including in Jackson County. Use of such programs in the county has declined in the absence of criminal prosecution, Sickler said: Without accountability or the ability to drive a better choice, these individuals are left to their own demise.

The consequences of Measure 110s shortcomings have fallen most heavily on Oregons drug users. In the two years after the law took effect, the number of annual overdoses in the state rose by 61 percent, compared with a 13 percent increase nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In neighboring Idaho and California, where drug possession remains subject to prosecution, the rate of increase was significantly lower than Oregons. (The spike in Washington State was similar to Oregons, but that comparison is more complicated because Washingtons drug policy has fluctuated since 2021.) Other states once notorious for drug deaths, including West Virginia, Indiana, and Arkansas, are now experiencing declines in overdose rates.

In downtown Portland this spring, police cleared out what The Oregonian called an open-air drug market in a former retail center. Prominent businesses in the area, including the outdoor-gear retailer REI, have announced closures in recent months, in part citing a rise in shoplifting and violence. Earlier this year, Portland business owners appeared before the Multnomah County Commission to ask for help with crime, drug-dealing, and other problems stemming from a behavioral-health resource center operated by a harm-reduction nonprofit that was awarded more than $4 million in Measure 110 funding. In April, the center abruptly closed following employee complaints that clients were covering walls with graffiti and overdosing on-site. A subsequent investigation by the nonprofit found that a security contractor had been using cocaine on the job. The center reopened two weeks later with beefed-up security measures.

Portlands Democratic mayor, Ted Wheeler, went so far as to attempt an end run around Measure 110 in his city. Last month, Wheeler unveiled a proposal to criminalize public drug consumption in Portland, similar to existing bans on open-air drinking, saying in a statement that Measure 110 is not working as it was intended to. He added, Portlands substance-abuse problems have exploded to deadly and disastrous proportions. Wheeler withdrew the proposal days later after learning that an older state law prohibits local jurisdictions from banning public drug use.

Despite shifting public opinion on Measure 110, many Oregon leaders are not ready to give up on the policy. Earlier this month, Oregon Governor Tina Kotek signed legislation that strengthens state oversight of Measure 110 and requires an audit, due no later than December 2025, of about two dozen aspects of the measures performance, including whether it is reducing overdoses. Other bills passed by the legislatures Democratic majority strengthened criminal penalties for possession of large quantities of fentanyl and mandated that school drug-prevention programs instruct students about the risks of synthetic opioids. Republican proposals to repeal Measure 110 outright or claw back tens of millions of dollars in harm-reduction funding were not enacted.

The fallout from Measure 110 has received some critical coverage from media outlets on the right. It is predictable, a scholar from the Hudson Institute told Fox News. It is a tragedy and a self-inflicted wound. (Meanwhile, in Portugal, the model for Oregon, some residents are raising questions about their own nations decriminalization policy.) But so far Oregons experience doesnt appear to have stopped efforts to bring decriminalization to other parts of the United States. Well see more ballot initiatives, Sutton, of the Drug Policy Alliance, said, adding that advocates are currently working with city leaders to decriminalize drugs in Washington, D.C.

Read: An anti-overdose drug is getting stronger. Maybe thats a bad thing?

Supporters of Measure 110 are now seeking to draw attention to what they say are the policys overlooked positive effects. This summer, the Health Justice Recovery Alliance, a Measure 110 advocacy organization, is leading an effort to spotlight expanded treatment services and boost community awareness of the treatment-referral hotline. Advocates are also coordinating with law-enforcement agencies to ensure that officers know about local resources for drug users. People are hiring for their programs; outreach programs are expanding, offering more services, Devon Downeysmith, the communications director for the group, told me.

An array of services around the state have been expanded through the policy: housing for pregnant women awaiting drug treatment; culturally specific programs for Black, Latino, and Indigenous drug users; and even distribution of bicycle helmets to people uable to drive to treatment meetings. People often forget how much time it takes to spend a bunch of money and build services, said Wheelock, the homeless-services worker, whose organization received more than $2 million in funding from Measure 110.

Still, even some recipients of Measure 110 funding wonder whether one of the laws pillarsthe citation system that was supposed to help route drug users into treatmentneeds to be rethought. Perhaps some consequences might be a helpful thing, says Julia Pinsky, a co-founder of Maxs Mission, a harm-reduction nonprofit in southern Oregon. Maxs Mission has received $1.5 million from Measure 110, enabling the organization to hire new staff, open new offices, and serve more people. Pinsky told me she is proud of her organizations work and remains committed to the idea that you shouldnt have to go to prison to be treated for substance use. She said that she doesnt want drug use to become a felony, but that some people arent capable of stopping drug use on their own. They need additional help.

Brandi Fogle, a regional manager for Maxs Mission, says her own story illustrates the complex trade-offs involved in reforming drug policy. Three and a half years ago, she was a homeless drug user, addicted to heroin and drifting around Jackson and Josephine Counties. Although she tried to stop numerous times, including one six-month period during which she was prescribed the drug-replacement medication methadone, she told me that a 2020 arrest for drug possession was what finally turned her life around. She asked to be enrolled in a 19-month drug-court program that included residential treatment, mandatory 12-step meetings, and a community-service project, and ultimately was hired by Pinsky.

Since Measure 110 went into effect, Fogle said, she has gotten pushback from members of the community for the work Maxs Mission does. She said that both the old system of criminal justice and the new system of harm reduction can benefit drug users, but that her hope now is to make the latter approach more successful. Everyone is different, Fogle said. Drug court worked for me because I chose it, and I wouldnt have needed drug court in the first place if I had received the kind of services Maxs Mission provides. I want to offer people that chance.

This article originally suggested that REIs store in Portland had closed; it is scheduled to close early next year.

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Interest rate cut – but economic growth forecast slashed in blow to chancellor

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Interest rate cut - but economic growth forecast slashed in blow to chancellor

The Bank of England has cut interest rates by another quarter percentage point, bringing down the cost of borrowing to 4.5%.

And in a sign that households can expect more cuts in the months to come, two members of the Bank‘s Monetary Policy Committee said they would have preferred to reduce rates even more, by a full half percentage point.

Follow live reaction to interest rate cut in the Money blog

However, the Bank slashed its forecast for economic growth, forecasting that the economy will skirt clear of a formal recession only by the narrowest margin in the coming months, and downgraded its estimate of the economy’s ability to generate income. And in a further blow to the chancellor, it said her latest growth plans, unveiled in a speech last week, will add nothing to gross domestic product growth in its forecast horizon.

The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said: “It will be welcome news that we have been able to cut interest rates again today. We’ll be monitoring the UK economy and global developments very closely and taking a gradual and careful approach to reducing rates further.

“Low and stable inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy and it’s the Bank of England’s job to ensure that.”

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UK interest rate cut to 4.5%

The Bank’s forecasts seem to indicate that there will be at least two further rate cuts in the coming years and that that will be enough to bring inflation down towards its 2% target. However, investors are betting on more cuts.

The Monetary Policy Report and Bank forecasts released alongside the decision today signal that the economy is due to have another few years of weakness. They cut the forecast for economic growth this year, next year and the following year, as well as raising the inflation forecast. The Bank also said that the economy’s potential growth rate had dropped, down from 1.5% this time last year to 0.75% at the moment.

It said that while it expected last October’s budget to boost economic growth by 0.75%, thanks largely to greater public investment, it also expected the National Insurance rise to weigh down on activity, in particular by pulling down employment.

Analysis: Where do interest rates go from here?

It also warned that the tariffs threatened by Donald Trump on various economies posed a risk for economic growth in the coming years, though it has yet to incorporate them into its models.

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Interest rate path is tricky to navigate in tougher economy

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Interest rate path is tricky to navigate in tougher economy

Let’s start with the simple bit: interest rates have been cut – down by another quarter percentage point to 4.5%. But what happens next?

Not long ago, the answer was quite simple: the Bank of England would carry on cutting borrowing costs, one quarter point cut every three months, until they reached, say, 3.5%.

That, at least, was the expectation this time last year.

Money latest: First-time buyers warned over auctions

But things have become more complex, more unpredictable in recent months.

Instead there are two paths ahead of us. One of them, let’s call it the high road, sees those borrowing costs being cut only gradually, down to 4% in a couple of years’ time.

Down the other road, the low road, the outlook is quite different: rates will be cut faster and more. They go down below 4%, perhaps as low as 3.5%, perhaps even lower.

More on Bank Of England

The funny thing about today’s splurge of information and forecasts from the Bank of England is that it’s not entirely clear whether we’re on the high road or the low road anymore.

Now, strictly speaking, the forecasts and fan charts produced by the Bank’s staff tend towards the former, more conservative view – the two cuts.

But then look at the voting patterns on the monetary policy committee (MPC), where two members, Swati Dhingra and Catherine Mann just voted for a full half percentage point cut, and you’re left with a different impression. That rates will go lower, and quickly.

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Britain has ‘huge potential’

And in truth, that’s what often happens when the economy is weakening.

When gross domestic product, the best measure of economic output, is flatlining or shrinking, when inflation is low (especially when you look beyond the temporary bump caused by energy prices) – that’s usually precisely the time the Bank slashes rates with abandon.

And that’s precisely the situation the UK finds itself in at the moment.

Read more from Sky News:
Tesco eyes delivery of Crown Post Office branches
Starmer to slash red tape to build nuclear reactors
Race to avoid Trump tariffs as US imports hit record high

But the problem is that a few things have complicated matters.

One is that the government decided to splurge more money in last October’s budget. That extra money sloshing around in the economy makes the Bank somewhat less willing to cut rates.

Another is that although the economy is weak, inflation is still high – indeed, the Bank actually raised its forecast for the consumer price index in today’s forecasts. Another is that the world economy has become a significantly more unstable place in recent months.

Germany is in recession. The US, under Donald Trump, is threatening tariffs on its nearest allies.

It’s not altogether clear whether the response to all this is lower interest rates.

Added to this, despite the chancellor’s best efforts, there is little evidence that her pro-growth policies are boosting economic growth – at least according to the Bank’s own forecasts.

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Reeves risks economic ‘doom Loop’

These are tricky waters to navigate.

All of which helps explains why it’s no longer quite as clear as it once was what happens next.

My suspicion is that the Bank will end up cutting rates, probably more than those two cuts baked into its forecasts. But such forecasts are even more fraught than usual.

Continue Reading

UK

Interest rate path is tricky to navigate in tougher economy

Published

on

By

Interest rate path is tricky to navigate in tougher economy

Let’s start with the simple bit: interest rates have been cut – down by another quarter percentage point to 4.5%. But what happens next?

Not long ago, the answer was quite simple: the Bank of England would carry on cutting borrowing costs, one quarter point cut every three months, until they reached, say, 3.5%.

That, at least, was the expectation this time last year.

Money latest: First-time buyers warned over auctions

But things have become more complex, more unpredictable in recent months.

Instead there are two paths ahead of us. One of them, let’s call it the high road, sees those borrowing costs being cut only gradually, down to 4% in a couple of years’ time.

Down the other road, the low road, the outlook is quite different: rates will be cut faster and more. They go down below 4%, perhaps as low as 3.5%, perhaps even lower.

More on Bank Of England

The funny thing about today’s splurge of information and forecasts from the Bank of England is that it’s not entirely clear whether we’re on the high road or the low road anymore.

Now, strictly speaking, the forecasts and fan charts produced by the Bank’s staff tend towards the former, more conservative view – the two cuts.

But then look at the voting patterns on the monetary policy committee (MPC), where two members, Swati Dhingra and Catherine Mann just voted for a full half percentage point cut, and you’re left with a different impression. That rates will go lower, and quickly.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Britain has ‘huge potential’

And in truth, that’s what often happens when the economy is weakening.

When gross domestic product, the best measure of economic output, is flatlining or shrinking, when inflation is low (especially when you look beyond the temporary bump caused by energy prices) – that’s usually precisely the time the Bank slashes rates with abandon.

And that’s precisely the situation the UK finds itself in at the moment.

Read more from Sky News:
Tesco eyes delivery of Crown Post Office branches
Starmer to slash red tape to build nuclear reactors
Race to avoid Trump tariffs as US imports hit record high

But the problem is that a few things have complicated matters.

One is that the government decided to splurge more money in last October’s budget. That extra money sloshing around in the economy makes the Bank somewhat less willing to cut rates.

Another is that although the economy is weak, inflation is still high – indeed, the Bank actually raised its forecast for the consumer price index in today’s forecasts. Another is that the world economy has become a significantly more unstable place in recent months.

Germany is in recession. The US, under Donald Trump, is threatening tariffs on its nearest allies.

It’s not altogether clear whether the response to all this is lower interest rates.

Added to this, despite the chancellor’s best efforts, there is little evidence that her pro-growth policies are boosting economic growth – at least according to the Bank’s own forecasts.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Reeves risks economic ‘doom Loop’

These are tricky waters to navigate.

All of which helps explains why it’s no longer quite as clear as it once was what happens next.

My suspicion is that the Bank will end up cutting rates, probably more than those two cuts baked into its forecasts. But such forecasts are even more fraught than usual.

Continue Reading

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