Scientists are virtually certain that July will be the hottest month ever recorded, even with four days still to go.
Hot off the heels of the warmest-ever June globally, this month is set to be both the warmest-ever July and warmest month of any kind.
“Scientists have been warning us about this for a very long time,” Chris Hewitt, director of Climate Services at the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) told Sky News. And now “we are seeing this trend”, he said.
The WMO said the increased global average was closely linked with the fierce heatwaves that baked swathes of North America, China and Europe, which inflicted “major” impacts on people’s health.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings.
“The only surprise is the speed of the change. Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning.”
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President Joe Biden said that according to experts, extreme heat is “already costing America $100bn a year”.
He has asked Acting Labour Secretary Julie Su to issue a heat hazard alert, while the US Forest Service will award $1bn in grants to help towns and cities plant trees to repel heat.
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Image: Global daily surface air temperature (°C) from 1 January 1940 to 23 July 2023. Pic: C3S/ECMWF
July 2023 is likely to be around 16.9C on average, based on provisional figures from the EU’s Copernicus service, far above the previous record of around 16.6C.
Mr Hewitt said: “A few tenths of a degree is quite a lot in a global average surface temperature.”
It is the “quite big difference” between this month and previous records that makes the scientists so confident we are on course for a new hottest month ever.
Even if temperatures plummeted, which they aren’t forecast to, the average will still likely remain above 16.6C.
This isn’t just the hottest July ever recorded, it’s the hottest month ever recorded.
In a way, it should come as no surprise, with the three consecutive heatwaves going on in North America, Europe and China in recent weeks, as well as record-breaking temperatures in the world’s oceans.
But it might not make much sense to those of us living in the UK where we’re certainly not experiencing a record warm month.
The reason for that is the way weather patterns move the planet’s heat around.
Today’s record is a global average temperature, that includes the southern hemisphere where it’s currently winter.
And it’s a significant increase on the previous record. By about 0.3 degrees centigrade. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s sufficient for the World Meteorological Organisation to provisionally declare this record.
Even if there was a significant cooling of the atmosphere over the next five days, it wouldn’t be enough to rob July 2023 of this most dubious title.
What territory are we entering into? Well this July was about 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average for July.
So it’s a foretaste of what the climate might feel like in a few more decades when the annual average global temperature is expected to pass 1.5 degrees.
A point we will inevitably get to, and then exceed, unless we start to reduce greenhouse gas emissions far more rapidly than we currently are.
July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year.
Global average is a useful measure because it smooths out local fluctuations in the weather to give an over-arching view of how the climate has warmed since humans began burning fossil fuels at scale.
Mr Hewitt added: “The weather will continue to vary between hot and cold, wet and dry, windy and not windy. But as the climate warms, you’ll be shifting towards more likelihood for the hot days and warmer conditions.”
This year could bring further individual monthly heat records, he said.
“Over the next few months and throughout this year, we don’t see any respite in this warming at the moment.”
“It looks like the warming for the whole planet will continue this year.”
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Meanwhile, in the UK recent weather has fairly cool.
But the Met Office has now warned the staggering heat of last year, at the time considered extraordinary, will become normal by 2060.
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The Pope remains in a critical condition and is now showing an “initial, mild” kidney problem – but is “vigilant” and took part in Mass in hospital with those caring for him.
The Vatican statement said Francis hadn’t had any more “respiratory crises” since Saturday evening.
However, a problem with his kidneys has emerged, with blood tests showing “an initial, mild, renal insufficiency, which is currently under control”, according to the update.
The 88-year-old Pope is still having “high-flow oxygen therapy” into his nose, while his hemoglobin value has increased after being given blood transfusions on Saturday.
The Pope has been at Rome’s Gemelli hospital since 14 February and is being treated for double pneumonia and chronic bronchitis.
Sunday evening’s statement said he was “vigilant and well oriented”, but due to the complexity of his case the prognosis is “reserved”.
“During the morning, in the apartment set up on the 10th floor, he participated in the Holy Mass, together with those who are taking care of him during these days of hospitalization,” the update added.
On Sunday morning, the Vatican said the Pope had a “tranquil” night and confirmed he would not lead prayers for the second week running.
Instead, Francis, who has been Pope since 2013, prepared words to be read on his behalf at the recitation of the Angelus.
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The Pope’s message said: “I am confidently continuing my hospitalisation at the Gemelli Hospital, carrying on with the necessary treatment; and rest is also part of the therapy!
“I sincerely thank the doctors and health workers of this hospital for the attention they are showing me and the dedication with which they carry out their service among the sick.
“In recent days I have received many messages of affection, and I have been particularly struck by the letters and drawings from children.
“Thank you for this closeness, and for the prayers of comfort I have received from all over the world! I entrust you all to the intercession of Mary, and I ask you to pray for me.”
The message is understood to have been written in the last few days.
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0:45
‘The Pope is like family to us’
On Saturday night, the Vatican said the Pope was in a critical condition after a “prolonged respiratory crisis” that required a high flow of oxygen.
It said he’d had blood transfusions after tests revealed thrombocytopenia, which is associated with anaemia.
Millions around the world have been concerned about his increasingly frail health – and his condition has given rise to speculation over a possible resignation.
Faith is never lost but it feels optimism is fading
By Lisa Holland, Sky correspondent in Vatican City
It’s hard to imagine a Sunday in the Vatican City without the Pope. Every week – unless he’s travelling – he is a constant, appearing at the same Vatican windows to deliver his message.
Instead, his written words were distributed by Vatican officials. In his message, the Pope thanked his doctors and people around the world for their good wishes.
But it seems the upbeat message was written before the dramatic downturn in the Pope’s health, which has left him in a critical condition. The business and the events of the Church are continuing in his absence.
Faith is never lost but it feels like optimism is fading and we are living through the last days of Pope Francis.
In St Peter’s Square the sun shone – and a gentle light fell on the ancient stone of the basilica.
The beauty and pageantry of columns of deacons and visitors filing in for a special mass as part of the Catholic Church’s jubilee year sat awkwardly with the prognosis of the Pope’s ailing health.
The visitors and deacons who’d come from around the world to take part, and hoped to see the Pope, were left disappointed. Though they said they felt his presence. “It is what it is,” said one.
They know the Pope is an 88-year-old man who has spent the last few years assisted by a wheelchair and walking stick. Throughout his life he has been dogged by lung issues.
It leaves an almost philosophical mood ahead of what the coming days may bring.
Doctors said on Friday that he was “not out of danger” and was expected to remain in hospital for at least another week.
They also warned that while he did not have sepsis, there was always a risk the infection could spread in his body.
Sepsis is a complication of an infection that can lead to organ failure and death.
Pope Francis has a history of respiratory illness, having lost part of one of his lungs to pleurisy as a young man. He also had an acute case of pneumonia in 2023.
Initial exit polls appear to confirm what we have known for weeks: that the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) have got the most votes in the federal election, with Friedrich Merz most likely to be the next chancellor.
While this result isn’t a surprise, it doesn’t mean the path to power will be easy.
First off, the CDU-CSU don’t have a majority so they need to try to build a coalition.
Image: The first exit polls displayed on a screen at the SPD’s headquarters in Germany. Pic: Reuters
Their most obvious choices as partners are the third-place Social Democrats. A two-party coalition is preferred as it can avoid excess bickering but the SPD and CDU disagree on several key points including sending long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Forming a government can take months but Mr Merz is keen to speed up the process – aware of the pressing issues both at home and abroad.
One of those is the rise of the far right, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party celebrating historic results.
The initial results suggest that for the first time since the Second World War, a far-right party has got the second highest number of votes.
That could also cause serious issues for the next government.
As a result of Germany‘s Nazi history, mainstream parties have a long-running pact known as the “firewall” which says they will not work with the far right.
Even before the polls had closed, AfD leader Alice Weidel echoed Donald Trump and released a video statement urging people to “observe” the ballots being counted and to “protect democracy”.
Image: The AfD’s Alice Weidel celebrating after the exit poll result. Pic: AP
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2:59
How will Germany election impact Europe?
Many of the AfD’s supporters have said not allowing the second most popular party into government is undemocratic, threatening to take to the streets.
The US vice president JD Vance also sparked outrage when he spoke out against the firewall at the recent Munich Security Conference and suggested the new Trump administration would be ready to work with the AfD.
Conversely, in the run-up to the election, hundreds of thousands of Germans have protested to demand that the firewall remains.
Image: German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party after the exit poll results. Pic: Reuters
In January, Mr Merz caused controversy when a draft motion got through parliament with AfD support, he’s since vowed he will not go into government with them.
If he sticks to that pledge then he is likely to see right-wing demonstrations as well becoming a target of prominent AfD backers including Elon Musk.
The AfD’s result also cannot be ignored. While some of the vote may be a protest, the party has expanded its traditional base in the east to pick up support in the west.
Dissatisfaction over migration, the economy, rocketing prices and the war in Ukraine have all helped to grow its ranks as people feel ignored by mainstream parties.
Mr Merz has already tried to win back some of its voters by proposing tough migration reforms including permanent checks on the borders and potentially turning away some asylum seekers when they try to enter.
If he fails to deliver on these promises then the AfD will continue to make gains.
Other urgent to dos for the next government include sorting out Germany’s economy following two years of recession and restoring its position at the centre of the EU.
Ministers must also face up to the fact their traditional allies are no longer guaranteed.
The Trump administration appears to be ripping up the rule book when it comes to being a protector of Europe and its ongoing support for Ukraine.
If America steps back, as Europe’s largest power and Ukraine’s largest European backer, Germany will have to step up.
Again, that’s going to be a big challenge as its military needs to be transformed.
The final results are not even confirmed yet but whatever form it takes, the next government knows it has four years to fix Germany, if it fails then populists are highly likely to ride to power in 2029.
Ukraine’s president has said he would step down in return for peace and NATO membership for his country.
“If (it means) peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to leave my post, I am ready,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a news conference.
“I can exchange this for NATO [membership], if that condition is there, immediately,” he added.
Donald Trump has previously said Ukraine is unlikely to become a NATO ally and membership is a red line for Russia.
Mr Zelenskyy’s comment appeared to be a response to Mr Trump recently calling him a “dictator”as Ukraine hadn’t held fresh elections – despite laws prohibiting it during wartime
During a wide-ranging conference in Kyiv, Mr Zelenskyy also said talks on a minerals deal with the US were moving forward, adding “all is OK”, despite concerns of a stalemate in negotiations.
President Trump said on Saturday a deal was “pretty close” and he was determined to get paybackfor billionsof dollars of aid provided to Ukraine.
Ukraine wants the deal to include robust security guarantees over any future peace settlement with Russia.
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1:51
Starmer trip to US vital, Zelenskyy tells Sky News
Mr Zelenskyy also told Sky’s Deborah Hayes that next week’s visits to Washington by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron were vital.
He said Europe had to be “at the table” when a peace deal is negotiated.
“Who will represent Europe – I can’t tell you now exactly,” he said.
“But I think one person will represent the EU. And of course, the UK has to be at the table, if we speak, for example, about security guarantees.”
Image: Mr Zelenskyy said more than 260 drones were fired at Ukraine overnight. Pic: Reuters
The Ukrainian leader was speaking after his country was hit overnight with what he called the biggest drone attack since the war started.
Mr Zelenskyy condemned Russia for the “aerial terror” – a day before the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“Every day, our people stand against aerial terror,” Mr Zelenskyy wrote on X.
“On the eve of the third anniversary of the full-scale war, Russia launched 267 attack drones against Ukraine– the largest attack since Iranian drones began striking Ukrainian cities and villages.”
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A total of 138 of the drones were shot down and another 119 disappeared from radars after being jammed by electronic warfare, Ukraine’s air force said.
Damage was reported across five regions.
Mr Zelenskyy said nearly 1,150 drones, more than 1,400 guided aerial bombs and 35 missiles had been launched at Ukraine in the past week.
He thanked those operating air defences and called on allies to stand united to secure a “just and lasting peace”.
“This is achievable through the unity of all partners – we need the strength of all of Europe, the strength of America, the strength of everyone who seeks lasting peace,” he said.
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3:29
Trump calls Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’
It comes amid concerns over Mr Trump’s recent war of words with Mr Zelenskyy and his false claim that Ukraine had started the war.
At a conservative conference on Saturday, Mr Trump – who alarmed Europe and Ukraine by holding a recent call with Vladimir Putin– repeated his optimism that a peace deal is possible under his watch.
“I’ve spoken to President Putin and I think that thing [the war] is going to end,” said Mr Trump.
Ukraine has insisted it won’t accept any peace deal agreed without its participation, after it was excluded from a meeting between US and Russian diplomats in Saudi Arabia.