July has been so hot scientists are already confident it is the warmest month ever
Scientists are virtually certain that July will be the hottest month ever recorded, even with four days still to go.
Hot off the heels of the warmest-ever June globally, this month is set to be both the warmest-ever July and warmest month of any kind.
“Scientists have been warning us about this for a very long time,” Chris Hewitt, director of Climate Services at the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) told Sky News. And now “we are seeing this trend”, he said.
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The WMO said the increased global average was closely linked with the fierce heatwaves that baked swathes of North America, China and Europe, which inflicted “major” impacts on people’s health.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings.
“The only surprise is the speed of the change. Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning.”
President Joe Biden said that according to experts, extreme heat is “already costing America $100bn a year”.
He has asked Acting Labour Secretary Julie Su to issue a heat hazard alert, while the US Forest Service will award $1bn in grants to help towns and cities plant trees to repel heat.
Global daily surface air temperature (°C) from 1 January 1940 to 23 July 2023. Pic: C3S/ECMWF
The heatwaves in Europe and the US would have been “virtually impossible” without human-induced climate change, according to scientific data released on Tuesday.
July 2023 is likely to be around 16.9C on average, based on provisional figures from the EU’s Copernicus service, far above the previous record of around 16.6C.
Mr Hewitt said: “A few tenths of a degree is quite a lot in a global average surface temperature.”
It is the “quite big difference” between this month and previous records that makes the scientists so confident we are on course for a new hottest month ever.
Even if temperatures plummeted, which they aren’t forecast to, the average will still likely remain above 16.6C.
A glimpse into the future
It took a moment for this news to sink in.
This isn’t just the hottest July ever recorded, it’s the hottest month ever recorded.
In a way, it should come as no surprise, with the three consecutive heatwaves going on in North America, Europe and China in recent weeks, as well as record-breaking temperatures in the world’s oceans.
But it might not make much sense to those of us living in the UK where we’re certainly not experiencing a record warm month.
The reason for that is the way weather patterns move the planet’s heat around.
Today’s record is a global average temperature, that includes the southern hemisphere where it’s currently winter.
And it’s a significant increase on the previous record. By about 0.3 degrees centigrade. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s sufficient for the World Meteorological Organisation to provisionally declare this record.
Even if there was a significant cooling of the atmosphere over the next five days, it wouldn’t be enough to rob July 2023 of this most dubious title.
What territory are we entering into? Well this July was about 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average for July.
So it’s a foretaste of what the climate might feel like in a few more decades when the annual average global temperature is expected to pass 1.5 degrees.
A point we will inevitably get to, and then exceed, unless we start to reduce greenhouse gas emissions far more rapidly than we currently are.
July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year.
Global average is a useful measure because it smooths out local fluctuations in the weather to give an over-arching view of how the climate has warmed since humans began burning fossil fuels at scale.
Mr Hewitt added: “The weather will continue to vary between hot and cold, wet and dry, windy and not windy. But as the climate warms, you’ll be shifting towards more likelihood for the hot days and warmer conditions.”
This year could bring further individual monthly heat records, he said.
“Over the next few months and throughout this year, we don’t see any respite in this warming at the moment.”
“It looks like the warming for the whole planet will continue this year.”
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Meanwhile, in the UK recent weather has fairly cool.
But the Met Office has now warned the staggering heat of last year, at the time considered extraordinary, will become normal by 2060.
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Around 14 million people could die across the world over the next five years because of cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), researchers have warned.
Children under five are expected to make up around a third (4.5 million) of the mortalities, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.
Estimates showed that “unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030”.
“Beyond causing millions of avoidable deaths – particularly among the most vulnerable – these cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in LMICs [low and middle-income countries],” the report said.
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USAID programmes have prevented the deaths of more than 91 million people, around a third of them among children, the study suggests.
The agency’s work has been linked to a 65% fall in deaths from HIV/AIDS, or 25.5 million people.
Eight million deaths from malaria, more than half the total, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases and nearly five million from tuberculosis (TB), have also been prevented.
USAID has been vital in improving global health, “especially in LMICs, particularly African nations,” according to the report.
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Established in 1961, the agency was tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and helping economic growth in developing countries, especially those deemed strategic to Washington.
But the Trump administration has made little secret of its antipathy towards the agency, which became an early victim of cuts carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – formerly led by Elon Musk – in what the US government said was part of a broader plan to remove wasteful spending.
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What is USAID?
In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80% of USAID schemes had been closed following a six-week review, leaving around 1,000 active.
The US is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, providing around $61bn (£44bn) in foreign assistance last year, according to government data, or at least 38% of the total, and USAID is the world’s leading donor for humanitarian and development aid, the report said.
Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 natural disasters and crises worldwide – and in 2016 it sent food assistance to more than 53 million people across 47 countries.
The study assessed all-age and all-cause mortality rates in 133 countries and territories, including all those classified as low and middle-income, supported by USAID from 2001 to 2021.
Thailand’s prime minister has been suspended after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.
An ethics investigation into Paetongtarn Shinawatra is under way and she could end up being dismissed.
The country’s constitutional court took up a petition from 36 senators, who claimed dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards, and voted 7 to 2 to suspend her.
Protesters gathered in Bangkok at the weekend. Pic: Reuters
The prime minister’s call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, sparked public protests after she tried to appease him and criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.
Ms Shinawatra was trying to defuse mounting tensions at the border – which in May resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier.
Thousands of conservative, nationalist protesters held a demo in Bangkok on Saturday to urge her to step down.
Her party is clinging on to power after another group withdrew from their alliance a few weeks ago over the phone call. Calls for a no-confidence vote are likely.
Deputy prime minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over temporarily while the court looks into the case.
The 38-year-old prime minister – Thailand‘s youngest ever leader – has 15 days to respond to the probe. She has apologised and said her approach in the call was a negotiating tactic.
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The popularity of her government has slumped recently, with an opinion poll showing an approval rating of 9.2%, down from 30.9% in March.
Ms Shinawatra comes from a wealthy dynasty synonymous with Thai politics.
Her father Thaksin Shinawatra – a former Manchester City owner – and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister before her – in the early to mid 2000s – and their time in office also ended ignominiously amid corruption charges and military coups.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.
The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.
On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”
At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.
Benjamin Netanyahu, left, with Donald Trump during a previous meeting. Pic: Reuters
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.
The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.
An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.
She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.
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The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.
An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.
Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.
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