Scientists are virtually certain that July will be the hottest month ever recorded, even with four days still to go.
Hot off the heels of the warmest-ever June globally, this month is set to be both the warmest-ever July and warmest month of any kind.
“Scientists have been warning us about this for a very long time,” Chris Hewitt, director of Climate Services at the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) told Sky News. And now “we are seeing this trend”, he said.
The WMO said the increased global average was closely linked with the fierce heatwaves that baked swathes of North America, China and Europe, which inflicted “major” impacts on people’s health.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings.
“The only surprise is the speed of the change. Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning.”
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President Joe Biden said that according to experts, extreme heat is “already costing America $100bn a year”.
He has asked Acting Labour Secretary Julie Su to issue a heat hazard alert, while the US Forest Service will award $1bn in grants to help towns and cities plant trees to repel heat.
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Image: Global daily surface air temperature (°C) from 1 January 1940 to 23 July 2023. Pic: C3S/ECMWF
July 2023 is likely to be around 16.9C on average, based on provisional figures from the EU’s Copernicus service, far above the previous record of around 16.6C.
Mr Hewitt said: “A few tenths of a degree is quite a lot in a global average surface temperature.”
It is the “quite big difference” between this month and previous records that makes the scientists so confident we are on course for a new hottest month ever.
Even if temperatures plummeted, which they aren’t forecast to, the average will still likely remain above 16.6C.
This isn’t just the hottest July ever recorded, it’s the hottest month ever recorded.
In a way, it should come as no surprise, with the three consecutive heatwaves going on in North America, Europe and China in recent weeks, as well as record-breaking temperatures in the world’s oceans.
But it might not make much sense to those of us living in the UK where we’re certainly not experiencing a record warm month.
The reason for that is the way weather patterns move the planet’s heat around.
Today’s record is a global average temperature, that includes the southern hemisphere where it’s currently winter.
And it’s a significant increase on the previous record. By about 0.3 degrees centigrade. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s sufficient for the World Meteorological Organisation to provisionally declare this record.
Even if there was a significant cooling of the atmosphere over the next five days, it wouldn’t be enough to rob July 2023 of this most dubious title.
What territory are we entering into? Well this July was about 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average for July.
So it’s a foretaste of what the climate might feel like in a few more decades when the annual average global temperature is expected to pass 1.5 degrees.
A point we will inevitably get to, and then exceed, unless we start to reduce greenhouse gas emissions far more rapidly than we currently are.
July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year.
Global average is a useful measure because it smooths out local fluctuations in the weather to give an over-arching view of how the climate has warmed since humans began burning fossil fuels at scale.
Mr Hewitt added: “The weather will continue to vary between hot and cold, wet and dry, windy and not windy. But as the climate warms, you’ll be shifting towards more likelihood for the hot days and warmer conditions.”
This year could bring further individual monthly heat records, he said.
“Over the next few months and throughout this year, we don’t see any respite in this warming at the moment.”
“It looks like the warming for the whole planet will continue this year.”
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Meanwhile, in the UK recent weather has fairly cool.
But the Met Office has now warned the staggering heat of last year, at the time considered extraordinary, will become normal by 2060.
Watch The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.
The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.
Hamas has said it has “submitted its positive response” to the latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to mediators.
The proposal for a 60-day ceasefire was presented by US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing hard for a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House next week to discuss a deal.
Mr Trump said Israel had agreed to his proposed ceasefire terms, and he urged Hamas to accept the deal as well.
Hamas’ “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defence Forces inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.
But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”
Image: A woman cries after her son was killed while on his way to an aid distribution centre. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas said it is “fully prepared to immediately enter into a round of negotiations regarding the mechanism for implementing this framework” without elaborating on what needed to be worked out in the proposal’s implementation.
The US said during the ceasefire it would “work with all parties to end the war”.
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A Hamas official said on condition of anonymity that the truce could start as early as next week.
Image: An Israeli army tank advances in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel. Pic: AP/Leo Correa
But he added that talks were needed first to establish how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage and to specify the amount of humanitarian aid that will be allowed to enter Gaza during the ceasefire.
He said negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages would start on the first day of the truce.
Hamas has been seeking guarantees that the 60-day ceasefire would lead to a total end to the nearly 21-month-old war, which caused previous rounds of negotiations to fail as Mr Netanyahu has insisted that Israel would continue fighting in Gaza to ensure the destruction of Hamas.
The Hamas official said that Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.
Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, Mr Trump welcomed Hamas’s “positive spirit” to the proposal, adding that there could be a ceasefire deal by next week.
Image: Palestinians dispersing away from tear gas fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
Image: A girl mourns the loss of her father, who was killed while heading to an aid distribution hub. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas also said it wants more aid to flow through the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, which comes as the UN human rights officer said it recorded 613 Palestinians killed in Gaza within a month while trying to obtain aid.
Most of them were said to have been killed while trying to reach food distribution points by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
The spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, Ravina Shamdasani, said the agency was not able to attribute responsibility for the killings, but added that “it is clear that the Israeli military has shelled and shot at Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points” operated by GHF.
Image: Palestinians carry aid packages near the GHF distribution centre in Khan Younis. Pic: AP/Abdel Kareem Hana
Ms Shamdasani said that of the total tallied, 509 killings were “GHF-related”, meaning at or near its distribution sites.
The GHF accused the UN of taking its casualty figures “directly from the Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry” and of trying “to falsely smear our effort”, which echoed statements to Sky News by the executive director of GHF, Johnnie Moore.
Since that phone call, Dr Bahbah has been living temporarily in Qatar where he is in direct contact with officials from Hamas. He has emerged as an important back-channel American negotiator. But how?
An inauguration party
I first met Dr Bahbah in January. It was the eve of President Trump’s inauguration and a group of Arab-Americans had thrown a party at a swanky restaurant in Washington DC’s Wharf district.
There was a sense of excitement. Arab-Americans were crediting themselves for having helped Trump over the line in the key swing state of Michigan.
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Image: Dr Bahbah negotiating with Hamas for the release of Edan Alexander
Despite traditionally being aligned with the Democrats, Arab-Americans had abandoned Joe Biden in large numbers because of his handling of the Gaza war.
I’d reported from Michigan weeks earlier and been struck by the overwhelming support for Trump. The vibe essentially was ‘it can’t get any worse – we may as well give Trump a shot’.
Mingling among diplomats from Middle Eastern countries, wealthy business owners and even the president of FIFA, I was introduced to an unassuming man in his late 60s.
We got talking and shared stories of his birthplace and my adopted home for a few years – Jerusalem.
Image: Dr Bahbah and Trump
He told me that he still has the deed to his family’s 68 dunum (16 acre) Palestinian orchard.
With nostalgia, he explained how he still had his family’s UN food card which shows their allocated monthly rations from their time living in a refugee camp and in the Jerusalem’s old city.
Dr Bahnah left Jerusalem in 1976. He is now a US citizen but told me Jerusalem would always be home.
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1:58
Will Trump achieve a Gaza ceasefire?
He echoed the views I had heard in Michigan, where he had spent many months campaigning as the president of Arab-Americans for Trump.
He dismissed my scepticism that Trump would be any better than Biden for the Palestinians.
We exchanged numbers and agreed to meet for lunch a few weeks later.
A connection with Trump
Dr Bahbah invited two Arab-American friends to our lunch. Over burgers and coke, a block from the White House, we discussed their hopes for Gaza under Trump.
The three men repeated what I had heard on the campaign trail – that things couldn’t get any worse for the Palestinians than they were under Biden.
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2:54
Gaza deaths increase when aid sites open
Trump, they said, would use his pragmatism and transactional nature to create opportunities.
Dr Bahbah displayed to me his own initiative too. He revealed that he got a message to the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, to suggest he ought to write a personal letter of congratulations to President Trump.
A letter from Ramallah was on the Oval Office desk on 6 November, a day after the election. It’s the sort of gesture Trump notices.
It was clear to me that the campaigning efforts and continued support of these three wealthy men had been recognised by the Trump administration.
They had become close to key figures in Trump’s team – connections that would, in time, pay off.
There were tensions along the way. When Trump announced he would “own Gaza”, Dr Bahbah was disillusioned.
“Arab-Americans for Trump firmly rejects President Donald J Trump’s suggestion to remove – voluntarily or forcibly – Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt and Jordan,” he said.
Image: Letter from Abbas to Trump. Pic: Bishara Bahbah
He then changed the name of his alliance, dropping Trump. It became Arab-Americans for Peace.
I wondered if the wheels were coming off this unlikely alliance.
Was he realising Trump couldn’t or wouldn’t solve the Palestinian issue? But Dr Bahbah maintained faith in the new president.
“I am worried, but at the same time, Trump might be testing the waters to determine what is acceptable…,” he told me in late February as the war dragged on.
“There is no alternative to the two-state solution.”
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He told me that he expected the president and his team to work on the rebuilding of Gaza and work to launch a process that would culminate in the establishment of a Palestinian state, side by side in peace with Israel.
It was, and remains, an expectation at odds with the Trump administration’s official policy.
The phone call
In late April, Dr Bahbah’s phone rang. The man at the other end of the line was Dr Ghazi Hamad, a senior member of Hamas.
Dr Bahbah and Dr Hamad had never met – they did not know each other.
But Hamas had identified Dr Bahbah as the Palestinian-American with the most influence in Trump’s administration.
Dr Hamad suggested that they could work together – to secure the release of all the hostages in return for a permanent ceasefire.
Hamas was already using the Qatari government as a conduit to the Americans but Dr Bahbah represented a second channel through which they hoped they could convince President Trump to increase pressure on Israel.
There is a thread of history which runs through this story. It was the widow of former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat who passed Dr Bahbah’s number to Dr Hamad.
In the 1990s, Dr Bahbah was part of a Palestinian delegation to the multilateral peace talks.
He became close to Arafat but he had no experience of a negotiation as delicate and intractable as this.
The first step was to build trust. Dr Bahbah contacted Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy.
Witkoff and Bahbah had something in common – one a real-estate mogul, the other an academic, neither had any experience in diplomacy. It represented the perfect manifestation of Trump’s ‘outside the box’ methods.
But Witkoff was sceptical of Dr Bahbah’s proposal at first. Could he really have any success at securing agreement between Israel and Hamas? A gesture to build trust was necessary.
Bahbah claims he told his new Hamas contact that they needed to prove to the Trump administration that they were serious about negotiating.
Within weeks a remarkable moment more than convinced Dr Bahbah and Witkoff that this new Hamas back-channel could be vitally important.
We were told at the time that his release was a result of a direct deal between Hamas and the US.
Israel was not involved and the deal was described by Hamas as a “good faith” gesture. Dr Bahbah sees it as his deal.
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27:55
Doctors on the frontline
Direct talks took place between Dr Bahbah and five Hamas officials in Doha who would then convey messages back to at least 17 other Hamas leadership figures in both Gaza and Cairo.
Dr Bahbah in turn conveyed Hamas messages back to Witkoff who was not directly involved in the Hamas talks.
A Qatari source told me that Dr Bahbah was “very involved” in the negotiations.
But publicly, the White House has sought to downplay his role, with an official telling Axios in May that “he was involved but tangentially”.
The Israeli government was unaware of his involvement until their own spies discovered the backchannel discussion about the release of Alexander.
Since that April phone call, Dr Bahbah has remained in the Qatari capital, with trips to Cairo, trying to help secure a final agreement.
He is taking no payment from anyone for his work.
As he told me when we first met back in January: “If I can do something to help to end this war and secure a future for the Palestinian people, I will.”
It is one of the most notorious and secret places in Iran.
Somewhere foreign journalists are never allowed to visit or film. The prison where dissidents and critics of Iran’s government disappear – some never to be seen again.
But we went there today, invited by Iranian authorities eager to show the damage done there by Israel.
Evin Prison was hit by Israeli airstrikes the day before a ceasefire ended a 12-day war with Iran. The damage is much greater than thought at the time.
We walked through what’s left of its gates, now a mass of rubble and twisted metal, among just a handful of foreign news media allowed in.
A few hundred yards in, we were shown a building Iranians say was the prison’s hospital.
Behind iron bars, every one of the building’s windows had been blown in. Medical equipment and hospital beds had been ripped apart and shredded.
Image: Debris scattered across what Iran says was the prison hospital
It felt eerie being somewhere normally shut off to the outside world.
On the hill above us, untouched by the airstrikes, the buildings where inmates are incarcerated in reportedly horrific conditions, ominous watch towers silhouetted against the sky.
Evin felt rundown and neglected. There was something ineffably sad and oppressive about the atmosphere as we wandered through the compound.
The Iranians had their reasons to bring us here. The authorities say at least 71 people were killed in the air strikes, some of them inmates, but also visiting family members.
Image: Authorities say this building was the visitor centre
Iran says this is evidence that Israel was not just targeting military or nuclear sites but civilian locations too.
But the press visit highlighted the prison’s notoriety too.
Iran’s critics and human rights groups say Evin is synonymous with the brutal oppression of political prisoners and opponents, and its practice of hostage diplomacy too.
British dual nationals, including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe were held here for years before being released in 2022 in exchange for concessions from the UK.
Image: Inmates are held in building on a hill above, which has been untouched by airstrikes
Interviewed about the Israeli airstrikes at the time, Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe showed only characteristic empathy with her former fellow inmates. Trapped in their cells, she said they must have been terrified.
The Israelis have not fully explained why they put Evin on their target list, but on the same day, the Israeli military said it was “attacking regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran”.
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The locus of their strikes were the prison’s two entrances. If they were trying to enable a jailbreak, they failed. No one is reported to have escaped, several inmates are thought to have died.
The breaches the Israeli missiles made in the jail’s perimeter are being closed again quickly. We filmed as a team of masons worked to shut off the outside world again, brick by brick.