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The ex-British spy who wrote a dossier on Donald Trump and Russian interference in the US election says he believes Vladimir Putin will be out of power “within the next year”.

Christopher Steele, who ran the Russia desk at MI6 in London between 2006 and 2009, told Sky News the West needs to “prepare for the end of the Putin era”.

The fractures in the Russian president’s control were exposed during the aborted Wagner coup, and here Steele runs through some potential scenarios that could end his reign.

:: Putin dies from illness or is assassinated

Rumours of Putin’s health have been rife, including that he’s seriously ill with cancer.

Steele says the exact nature of any health complaint is unclear but “very credible sources are telling us he’s been ill for some time”- raising the prospect he could die suddenly.

It’s also possible he could be assassinated, perhaps by internal elements, or by a plot from outside of Russia.

Steele says this would be the worst scenario for the West as “all bets would be off”, with “factional bloodshed” likely before a successor is established.

FSB director Alexander Bortnikov could be one of the frontrunners to take power in such a scenario, says the ex-spy.

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Indulgence of Prigozhin Putin’s ‘big mistake’

:: Toppled due to Ukraine war failure

Putin believed a swift victory was possible when he invaded Ukraine: the reality has been very different.

Ambitions to take over the entire country were ill-founded and the fighting grinds on despite many deaths and demoralised troops.

Steele says the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive may have given Putin some “breathing space” but that disquiet over the invasion – and the tightening effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and the rich and powerful could prove pivotal.

He believes this is the most likely scenario, with the following narrative playing out: “A move is made violently, if necessary, to kill or topple Putin in favour of another securocrat or regime oligarch – but one who has distanced themselves from the war and is prepared to negotiate on ending it genuinely with the West.”

He says “rising star” Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula oblast, is one potential successor.

The others being oligarch Igor Sechin – nicknamed ‘Darth Vader’, and former Russian prime minister Viktor Zubkov.

While such a narrative could hasten the end of the war, Steele says another outcome could see control seized by nationalists in the security services who have lost faith in Putin but want to continue the fighting.

Tula governor Alexei Dyumin (L) with President Putin in December 2022
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Tula governor Alexei Dyumin (L) with President Putin in December 2022

:: Putin stands down and endorses successor

After more than 20 years in power and with pressure mounting, the 70-year-old could decide it’s time to go and step down at the next election, scheduled for March 2024.

Steele says the elections give him a “potential off-ramp” and that Putin could choose to back a successor such as Dmitry Patrushev, son of the Russian Security Council secretary, or Aleksey Dyumin.

The ex-MI6 man says one of these figures as leader would mean “little or no change to the war in Ukraine, but at least the West would be facing a Russian leader who has not proven to be untrustworthy, a liar, and is not indicted for war crimes”.

As part of a deal to step aside, Putin might also ask for immunity for him and his family – similar to the deal struck when ex-president Boris Yeltsin ceded control in 1999.

“That’s in the back of his [Putin] mind that a similar deal might be possible for him going forward,” says Steele.

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How has Wagner impacted the war in Ukraine?

:: Military coup

The attempted coup by Wagner mercenaries – said to be aimed at Russia’s military leaders rather than Putin himself – was stopped by its leader before troops could reach Moscow.

But Steele says another hypothetical would be a plot orchestrated by senior officers from the country’s mainstream armed forces “disillusioned by the failures and losses in Ukraine”.

He says it would mean “no change to the war or Russian foreign policy” but could result in a transitional regime with a figure such as General Surovikin, commander of Russia’s aerospace forces, as president.

However, while possible, he rates this scenario as “very unlikely”.

Steele adds: “I think there is real disquiet amongst key people in the leadership now.

“Not just in the armed forces where the generals have been openly criticising Putin and the Kremlin for its support for the war – which is unheard of – but more generally the idea of the trajectory of Russia now: led by a president who’s been indicted for war crimes, who’s leading the Russian economy down a certain path.”

Putin could resign and potentially back a successor such as Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev (left)
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Putin could back a successor such as Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev (left)

:: Popular uprising

Another less likely route Putin might be ousted would be an uprising – either by a nationalist figure such as Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, or a democratic action by supporters of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

The ex-spy says this would be “very unpredictable and possibly bloody in the short term” – with outcomes obviously more favourable for the West and Ukraine if democratic figures were able to seize control.

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Brazil ‘surprised’ UK not investing in new rainforest fund it helped design

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Brazil 'surprised' UK not investing in new rainforest fund it helped design

Brazil was “a bit surprised” Britain hasn’t contributed to a new investment fund to protect tropical forests, despite having helped to design it, a senior official has told Sky News. 

The Amazon nation has used its role as host of the COP30 climate talks to tout its new scheme, which it drew up with the help of countries including the UK and Indonesia.

With Britain’s budget day looming, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer decided against chipping in when he visited the Amazonian city of Belem this month.

The news came out the day before Brazil was about to launch it.

“The Brazilians were livid” about the timing, one source told Sky News.

Lush rainforest and waterways in the Brazilian Amazon
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Lush rainforest and waterways in the Brazilian Amazon

A waterfall in Kayapo territory in Brazil
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A waterfall in Kayapo territory in Brazil

Garo Batmanian, director-general of the Brazilian Forestry Service and coordinator of the new scheme, said: “We were expecting [Britain to pay in] because the UK was the very first one to support us.”

The so-called Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) was drawn up with the help of “very bright people from the UK”, according to Mr Batmanian.

More on Deforestation

“So we are a bit surprised, but we expect that once internal situations get better, hopefully they will come through,” he added.

The UK’s climate envoy, Rachel Kyte, told Sky News: “The PM agreed the decision was about not doing it now, as opposed to not ever.

“We will look at the TFFF after the budget and are carefully tracking how others are investing.”

Forest growing back from a fire (bottom left) and deforestation alongside healthy sections of Amazon rainforest
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Forest growing back from a fire (bottom left) and deforestation alongside healthy sections of Amazon rainforest

The fund has been hailed as a breakthrough – if Brazil can get if off the ground.

Paul Polman, former Unilever boss and now co-vice chair of Planetary Guardians, said it could be the “first forest-finance plan big enough to change the game”.

Why do tropical forests need help?

At their best, tropical forests like the Amazon and the Congo Basin provide food, rainfall and clean air for millions of people around the world.

They soak up carbon dioxide – the main driver of climate change – providing a cooling effect on a heating planet.

But they are being nibbled away at by extractive industries like oil, logging, soy and gold.

Parts of the Amazon rainforest already emit more carbon dioxide than they store.

Other pockets are expected to collapse in the next few decades, meaning they’d no longer be rainforests at all.

Read more from COP30:
Climate protest in Brazilian city aims to hold governments’ feet to the fire
Are climate summits saving the world – or just hot air?

COP30 – why is it so controversial?

Greenpeace says deforested land could be better used, which would save the need for more land to be cleared
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Greenpeace says deforested land could be better used, which would save the need for more land to be cleared

Cristiane Mazzetti, senior forest campaigner at Greenpeace Brazil, said: “Science is saying we need to immediately stop deforestation and start restoring what was once lost.

“And in Brazil, we already have enough open land that could be better used for agricultural expansion… There is no need [to open up] new areas.”

Can Brazil’s new investment fund save the world’s rainforests?

For decades, forests have been worth more dead than alive.

Successive attempts to save them have fallen flat because they’ve not been able to flip the economics in favour of conservation, or ensure a long-term stream of cash.

Brazil hopes the TFFF, if it launches, would make forests worth more standing than cut down, and pay out to countries and communities making that happen.

Mining is a lucrative industry in the Amazon. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Mining is a lucrative industry in the Amazon. Pic: Reuters

“We don’t pay only for carbon, we are paying for a hectare of standing forest. The more forests you have, the more you are paid,” said Mr Batmanian.

The other “innovation” is to stop relying on aid donations, he said.

“There is a lot of demand for overseas development assistance. It’s normal to have that. We have a lot of crisis, pandemics, epidemics out there.”

Instead, the TFFF is an investment fund that would compete with other commercial propositions.

Mr Polman said: “This isn’t charity, it’s smart economic infrastructure to protect the Amazon and keep our planet safe.”

How does the TFFF raise money?

The idea is to raise a first tranche of cash from governments that can de-risk the fund for private investors.

Every $1 invested by governments could attract a further $4 of private cash.

The TFFF would then be able to take a higher amount of risk to raise above-market returns, Brazil hopes.

That means it could generate enough cash to pay competitive returns to investors and payments to the eligible countries and communities keeping their tropical trees upright.

At least 20% of the payments has been earmarked for indigenous communities, widely regarded as the best stewards of the land. Many, but not all, have welcomed the idea.

Will the TFFF work?

The proposal needs at least $10-25bn of government money to get off the ground.

So far it has raised $5.5bn from the likes of Norway, France, and Indonesia. And the World Bank has agreed to host it, signalling strong credibility.

But it’s a hard task to generate enough money to compete with lucrative industries like gold and oil, many of which governments already invest in.

Dr Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, director, Brazil Institute, King's College London
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Dr Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, director, Brazil Institute, King’s College London

Dr Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, director of King’s College London’s Brazil Institute, said TFFF has the potential to make it “very financially viable to have a forest as a forest”.

“But the problem is that TFFF would need to compete with these very profitable industries… because you need to capture as much money from governments, from investors.

“And so far it’s not quite balancing the competitiveness of other sectors that are potentially harmful for forests.”

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COP30: Climate protest in Brazil’s city of Belem aims to hold governments’ feet to the fire

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COP30: Climate protest in Brazil's city of Belem aims to hold governments' feet to the fire

Hot, humid, loud and proud: the climate protest in the city of Belem was the embodiment of the Amazonian rainforest that surrounds it.

Hawkers brought carts selling bananas, mangoes and coconuts – while demonstrators bore umbrellas, hats and fans to shelter from the scorching tropical sun.

After a week of dreary negotiations at the COP30 climate talks, the streets were alive with the drumming of maracatu music and dancing to local carimbo rhythms on Saturday.

It was a carnival atmosphere designed to elevate sober issues.

The climate protest in the city of Belem
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The climate protest in the city of Belem

Among those out on the streets were Kayapo people, an indigenous community living across the states of Para and Mato Grosso – the latter at the frontier of soy expansion in the Brazilian Amazon.

They are fighting local infrastructure projects like the new Ferrograo railway that will transport soy through their homeland.

The soy industry raises much-needed cash for Brazil’s economy – its second biggest export – but the kayapo say they do not get a slice of the benefit.

More on Cop30

The climate protest
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The climate protest

Read more:
Cop out: Is net zero dead?

COP30: Are climate summits saving the world – or just hot air?

Uti, a Kayapo community leader, said: “We do not accept the construction of the Ferrograo and some other projects.

“We Kayapo do not accept any of this being built on indigenous land.”

Many Brazilian indigenous and community groups here want legal recognition of the rights to their land – and on Friday, the Brazilian government agreed to designate two more territories to the Mundurucu people.

It’s a Brazilian lens on global issues – indigenous peoples are widely regarded as the best stewards of the land, but rarely rewarded for their efforts.

In fact, it is often a terrible opposite: grandmother Julia Chunil Catricura had been fighting to stay on Mapuche land in southern Chile, but disappeared earlier this year when she went out for a walk.

Lefimilla Catalina, also Mapuche, said she’s travelled two days to be here in Belem to raise the case of Julia, and to forge alliances with other groups.

The protest in the city of Belem
Image:
The protest in the city of Belem

“At least [COP30] makes it visible” to the world that people are “facing conflicts” on their land, she said.

She added: “COP offers a tiny space [for indigenous people], and we want to be more involved.

“We want to have more influence, and that’s why we believe we have to take ownership of these spaces, we can’t stay out of it.”

They are joined by climate protesters from around the world in an effort to hold governments’ feet to the fire.

Louise Hutchins, convener of Make Polluters Pay Coalition International, said: “We’re here to say to governments they need to make the oil and gas companies pay up for the climate destruction – they’ve made billions in profits every day for the last 50 years.”

After three years of COPs with no protests – the UAE, Egypt, and Azerbaijan do not look kindly on people taking to the streets – this year demonstrators have defined the look, the tone and the soundtrack of the COP30 climate talks – and Saturday was no different.

Whether that will translate into anything more ambitious to come out of COP30 remains to be seen, with another week of negotiations still to go.

For now, the protests in Belem reflect the chaos, the mess and the beauty of Brazil, the COP process, and the rest of the world beyond.

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Video shows Storm Claudia’s impact in Portugal as ‘tornado’ devastates Algarve

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Video shows Storm Claudia's impact in Portugal as 'tornado' devastates Algarve

Video has shown the devastating impact Storm Claudia has had on Portugal, where “tornado-like” winds battered the country, local media said.

Footage from a holiday campsite in Albufeira, where an 85-year-old British woman was killed, shows the extent of the damage caused by the extreme winds, which reached up to 114kmph in Portugal’s southern region of the Algarve.

Regional commander of the Algarve, Vitor Vaz Pinto, said dozens of people were injured in the area after Storm Claudia hit, two of whom were seriously injured.

A destroyed campsite in the aftermath of Storm Claudia in Albufeira, in southern Portugal's Algarve region. Pic: AP
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A destroyed campsite in the aftermath of Storm Claudia in Albufeira, in southern Portugal’s Algarve region. Pic: AP

The injured were of Portuguese, Spanish and British nationalities and ranged in age from six to 85 years old.

Follow the latest updates on Storm Claudia

According to media reports, the woman was initially reported missing at a campsite and later found dead.

SIC, which is Sky News’ Portuguese partner network, said an “extreme wind phenomenon” occurred around 10am on Saturday at the holiday site.

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Flooding in Portugal due to Storm Claudia. Pic: S.I.C. TV
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Flooding in Portugal due to Storm Claudia. Pic: S.I.C. TV

Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro expressed his “heartfelt condolences” to the family of the British woman and wished a “speedy recovery” to those who have been injured after the strong winds hit.

Portuguese media described the extreme weather in the Algarve as a tornado.

The storm, which was named by the Spanish meteorological service, affected Portugal and parts of Spain, Britain and Ireland.

Sky News’ weather presenter Jo Wheeler said the IPMA, or Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, had issued red rain warnings and severe wind warnings “well ahead of the storm’s arrival”.

She said there have been more than 2,434 weather-related incidents reported in the Algarve, including a downburst – a strong downward rush of air from a thunderstorm, causing similar damage to a tornado but linear rather than rotational -at Praia da Carvoeiro, with wind gusts of 114 km/hour.

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Pics: AP
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Pics: AP

Wheeler added that the presence of a tornado in Albufeira was yet to be confirmed, but it would account for the extent of the damage seen.

On Thursday, rescue workers found the bodies of an elderly couple inside their flooded home in Fernao Ferro, across the River Tagus from Lisbon.

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‘Heartbreaking scenes’ – as floods devastate South Wales

Storm Claudia in the UK

In the UK, Storm Claudia caused severe flooding in the town of Monmouth and surrounding areas in southeastern Wales on Saturday.

Senedd Member Peter Fox described the impact as being “devastating”.

Rescues, evacuations, and welfare checks were being carried out by the South Wales Fire and Rescue Service, the force said.

“Storm Claudia has caused significant flooding in parts of Wales overnight, which continues to affect homes, businesses, transport and energy infrastructure,” a spokesperson for the Welsh government said.

Natural Resources Wales has issued 11 flood warnings, four of which are severe, as well as 17 flood alerts.

In England, according to the Environment Agency’s latest update, there were 49 active flood warnings and 134 flood alerts.

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