The ex-British spy who wrote a dossier on Donald Trump and Russian interference in the US election says he believes Vladimir Putin will be out of power “within the next year”.
Christopher Steele, who ran the Russia desk at MI6 in London between 2006 and 2009, told Sky News the West needs to “prepare for the end of the Putin era”.
The fractures in the Russian president’s control were exposed during the aborted Wagner coup, and here Steele runs through some potential scenarios that could end his reign.
Steele says the exact nature of any health complaint is unclear but “very credible sources are telling us he’s been ill for some time”- raising the prospect he could die suddenly.
It’s also possible he could be assassinated, perhaps by internal elements, or by a plot from outside of Russia.
Steele says this would be the worst scenario for the West as “all bets would be off”, with “factional bloodshed” likely before a successor is established.
FSB director AlexanderBortnikov could be one of the frontrunners to take power in such a scenario, says the ex-spy.
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6:08
Indulgence of Prigozhin Putin’s ‘big mistake’
:: Toppled due to Ukraine war failure
Putin believed a swift victory was possible when he invaded Ukraine: the reality has been very different.
Ambitions to take over the entire country were ill-founded and the fighting grinds on despite many deaths and demoralised troops.
Steele says the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive may have given Putin some “breathing space” but that disquiet over the invasion – and the tightening effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and the rich and powerful could prove pivotal.
He believes this is the most likely scenario, with the following narrative playing out: “A move is made violently, if necessary, to kill or topple Putin in favour of another securocrat or regime oligarch – but one who has distanced themselves from the war and is prepared to negotiate on ending it genuinely with the West.”
He says “rising star” Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula oblast, is one potential successor.
The others being oligarch Igor Sechin – nicknamed ‘Darth Vader’, and former Russian prime minister Viktor Zubkov.
While such a narrative could hasten the end of the war, Steele says another outcome could see control seized by nationalists in the security services who have lost faith in Putin but want to continue the fighting.
:: Putin stands down and endorses successor
After more than 20 years in power and with pressure mounting, the 70-year-old could decide it’s time to go and step down at the next election, scheduled for March 2024.
Steele says the elections give him a “potential off-ramp” and that Putin could choose to back a successor such as Dmitry Patrushev, son of the Russian Security Council secretary, or Aleksey Dyumin.
The ex-MI6 man says one of these figures as leader would mean “little or no change to the war in Ukraine, but at least the West would be facing a Russian leader who has not proven to be untrustworthy, a liar, and is not indicted for war crimes”.
As part of a deal to step aside, Putin might also ask for immunity for him and his family – similar to the deal struck when ex-president Boris Yeltsin ceded control in 1999.
“That’s in the back of his [Putin] mind that a similar deal might be possible for him going forward,” says Steele.
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6:39
How has Wagner impacted the war in Ukraine?
:: Military coup
The attempted coup by Wagner mercenaries – said to be aimed at Russia’s military leaders rather than Putin himself – was stopped by its leader before troops could reach Moscow.
But Steele says another hypothetical would be a plot orchestrated by senior officers from the country’s mainstream armed forces “disillusioned by the failures and losses in Ukraine”.
He says it would mean “no change to the war or Russian foreign policy” but could result in a transitional regime with a figure such as General Surovikin, commander of Russia’s aerospace forces, as president.
However, while possible, he rates this scenario as “very unlikely”.
Steele adds: “I think there is real disquiet amongst key people in the leadership now.
“Not just in the armed forces where the generals have been openly criticising Putin and the Kremlin for its support for the war – which is unheard of – but more generally the idea of the trajectory of Russia now: led by a president who’s been indicted for war crimes, who’s leading the Russian economy down a certain path.”
:: Popular uprising
Another less likely route Putin might be ousted would be an uprising – either by a nationalist figure such as Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, or a democratic action by supporters of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
The ex-spy says this would be “very unpredictable and possibly bloody in the short term” – with outcomes obviously more favourable for the West and Ukraine if democratic figures were able to seize control.
Twelve British soldiers were injured in a major traffic pile-up in Estonia, close to the border with Russia, local media have reported.
Eight of the troops – part of a major NATO mission to deter Russian aggression – were airlifted back to the UK for hospital treatment on Sunday after the incident, which happened in snowy conditions on Friday, it is understood.
Five of these personnel have since been discharged with three still being kept in the military wing of the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham.
The crash happened at an intersection at around 5pm on Friday when the troops were travelling in three minibuses back to their base at Tapa.
Two civilian cars, driven by Estonians, are thought to have collided, triggering a chain reaction, with four other vehicles – comprising the three army Toyota minibuses and a third civilian car – piling into each other.
According to local media reports, the cars that initially collided were a Volvo S80, driven by a 37-year-old woman and a BMW 530D, driven by a 62-year-old woman.
The Estonian Postimees news site reported that 12 British soldiers were injured as well as five civilians. They were all taken to hospital by ambulance.
The British troops are serving in Estonia as part of Operation Cabrit, the UK’s contribution to NATO’s “enhanced forward presence” mission, which spans nations across the alliance’s eastern flank and is designed to deter attacks from Russia.
Around 900 British troops are deployed in Estonia, including a unit of Challenger 2 tanks.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence said: “Several British soldiers deployed on Operation CABRIT in Estonia were injured in a road traffic incident last Friday, 22nd November.
“Following hospital treatment in Estonia, eight personnel were flown back to the UK on an RAF C-17 for further treatment.
“Five have since been discharged and three are being cared for at the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham. We wish them all a speedy recovery.”
Defence Secretary John Healey said: “Following the road traffic incident involving British personnel in Estonia, my thoughts are with all those affected, and I wish those injured a full, swift recovery.
“Thanks to the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine at Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham for their excellent care.”
Two Britons are believed to be among more than a dozen people missing after a boat sank in the Red Sea off the Egyptian coast.
The yacht, called Sea Story, had 44 people on board, including 31 tourists of varying nationalities and 13 crew.
Authorities are searching for 16 people, including 12 foreign nationals and four Egyptians, the governor of the Red Sea region said, adding that 28 other people had been rescued.
Preliminary reports suggested a sudden large wave struck the vessel, capsizing it within about five minutes, governor Amr Hanafi said.
“Some passengers were in their cabins, which is why they were unable to escape,” he added in a statement.
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0:49
Passengers rescued from sunken tourist boat
The people who were rescued only suffered minor injuries such as bruises and scrapes with none needing hospital treatment.
A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development office spokesperson said: “We are providing consular support to a number of British nationals and their families following an incident in Egypt and are in contact with the local authorities.”
The foreign nationals aboard the 34-metre-long vessel, owned by an Egyptian national, included Americans, Belgians, British, Chinese, Finns, Germans, Irish, Poles, Slovakians, Spanish, and Swiss.
Sea Story had no technical problems, obtained all required permits before the trip, and was last checked for naval safety in March, according to officials.
The four-deck, wooden-hulled motor yacht was part of a multi-day diving trip when it went down near the coastal town of Marsa Alam following warnings about rough weather.
Officials said a distress call was received at 5.30am local time on Monday.
The boat had left Port Ghalib in Marsa Alam on Sunday and was scheduled to reach its destination of Hurghada Marina on 29 November.
Some survivors had been airlifted to safety on a helicopter, officials said.
The firm that operates the yacht, Dive Pro Liveaboard in Hurghada, said it has no information on the matter.
According to its maker’s website, the Sea Story was built in 2022.
A motion has been filed to drop the charges against Donald Trump of plotting to overturn the 2020 US presidential election result.
Mr Trump was first indicted on four felonies in August 2023: Conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.
The president-elect pleaded not guilty to all charges and the case was then put on hold for months as Mr Trump’s team argued he could not be prosecuted.
On Monday, prosecutors working with special counsel Jack Smith, who had led the investigation, asked a federal judge to dismiss the case over long-standing US justice department policy, dating back to the 1970s, that presidents cannot be prosecuted while in office.
It marks the end of the department’s landmark effort to hold Mr Trump accountable for the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 when thousands of Trump supporters assaulted police, broke through barricades, and swarmed the Capitol in a bid to prevent the US Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.
Trump plays blinder as accusers forced to turn blind eye over Capitol riots
In winning the White House, he avoids the so-called ‘big house’.
Whether or not prison was a prospect awaiting Donald Trump is a moot point now, as he now enjoys the protection of the presidency.
The delay strategy that he pursued through a grinding court process knocked his federal prosecution past the election date and when his numbers came up, he wasn’t going down.
Politically, and legally, he has played a blinder.
Mr Smith’s team had been assessing how to wind down both the election interference case and the separate classified documents case in the wake of Mr Trump’s election victory over vice president Kamala Harris earlier this month, effectively killing any chance of success for the case.
In court papers, prosecutors said “the [US] Constitution requires that this case be dismissed before the defendant is inaugurated”.
They said the ban [on prosecuting sitting presidents] “is categorical and does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the government’s proof, or the merits of the prosecution, which the government stands fully behind”.
Mr Trump, who has said he would sack Mr Smith as soon as he takes office in January, and promised to pardon some convicted rioters, has long dismissed both the 2020 election interference case and the separate classified documents case as politically motivated.
He was accused of illegally keeping classified papers after leaving office in 2021, some of which were allegedly found in his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida.
The election interference case stalled after the US Supreme Court ruled in July that former presidents have broad immunity from prosecution, which Mr Trump’s lawyers exploited to demand the charges against him be dismissed.
Mr Smith’s request to drop the case still needs to be approved by US District Judge Tanya Chutkan.
At least 1,500 cases have been brought against those accused of trying to overthrow the election result on 6 January 2021, resulting in more than 1,100 convictions, the Associated Press said.
More than 950 defendants have been sentenced and 600 of them jailed for terms ranging from a few days to 22 years.