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The pastor lights his cigar as he sits down on the sofa, casting the lit match aside. The floral upholstery starts to burn, the flames get bigger.

“It’s not the job of the preacher to be a firefighter,” Doug Wilson says, as the fire spreads. “We’re supposed to be arsonists in the world.”

Wilson leads a church in Moscow, Idaho. It’s a small city nestled beside mountains and surrounded by green, home to the University of Idaho. It voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

But Wilson, who opposes same sex marriage and rails against the Pride flag, wants to turn Moscow into a “Christian town”.

Stirring across America is a movement focused on tearing down the wall separating church and state. Conservative Christians are moving to remote states to live a rural life according to their values.

A real-estate company in Idaho that sells survival homes to such people offers buyers an AR-15 rifle as a “closing gift”.

Pastor Doug Wilson of Christ Church looks on while working in his office, in Moscow, Idaho, U.S., June, 8 2022. Picture taken June, 8 2022. REUTERS/Matt Mills McKnight
Image:
Controversial Pastor Doug Wilson in his office in June 2022

Christian nationalism is the belief that America should be governed as a Christian nation according to faith.

While it is not a new concept, some experts argue it has gone from a fringe ideology to a force in Donald Trump’s Republican party and is now a threat to the very fabric of American democracy.

One professor said the movement uses Christian ideals to mask racist ideas, but others say the Christian nationalist label is simply used to dismiss any Christians who want to be involved in politics.

More than half of Republicans are at least sympathetic to Christian nationalist ideas, according to a recent survey.

Religious leaders like controversial pastor Wilson and political actors like ex-Trump national security advisor Mike Flynn are considered key figures in the movement.

Photo by: Mihoko Owada/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 1/6/21 The United States Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. was breached by thousands of protesters during a "Stop The Steal" rally in support of President Donald Trump during the worldwide coronavirus pandemic. The demonstrators were protesting the results of the 2020 United States presidential election where Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden. While there was a significant police presence attempting to keep the peace - including law enforcement of
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Crosses and flags saying “An Appeal to Heaven” were seen at the January 6 riots

So how much of a danger is Christian nationalism?

At the January 6 insurrection, flags saying “An Appeal to Heaven” and “Jesus is my saviour” appeared alongside neo-Nazi iconography as rioters poured into the Capitol.

And while hundreds of people have been charged following the events in Washington DC, experts fear that Christian nationalism poses the “greatest threat to democracy” in America, amid talk of a “spiritual war”.

“Well I gotta get home for dinner,” Pastor Wilson says as the video draws to a close. The clip then ends with sped up footage of the sofa engulfed by the fire.

‘They will tell you being gay is wrong’

Bradley Onishi spent seven years as a minister before becoming disillusioned and leaving his church.

Dressed in a flat peak cap and a black t-shirt, he cuts a fashionable figure as he warns of the dangers posed by what he calls white Christian nationalism.

“Christian nationalism is all about order”, he says. “They want everything to feel like it’s in its proper place.

“They want to go back to a time when they understand there to be two genders, a clear patriarchal structure to the family, a restricted approach to immigration, black people and other people of colour knowing their place in the country, socially and politically.”

“They will tell you that being gay is wrong, in all cases. Some of them will tell you openly that interracial marriage is a sin,” he adds.

When asked if he considers Christian nationalism to be a white supremacist movement, his answer is definitive.

“Would I say that? Totally. Are they gonna tell you that? No.”

January 6

According to Onishi, large numbers of Christians are leaving more liberal states to settle in Idaho, where they are trying to exert control over local political institutions.

Onishi is from Orange County, California but says that he could find 100 people he knew that have now moved to Idaho.

He was inspired to write his book, Preparing For War: The Extremist History Of White Christian Nationalism – And What Comes Next, by the sobering sight of rioters storming the Capitol building in Washington DC on 6 January, 2021.

“I was pretty horrified that people I knew were there and that if I hadn’t left (the church) maybe I would have been there. That’s pretty terrifying to think of.”

Read more:
Trump-backing ‘fake electors’ charged
Leader of far-right militia jailed for 18 years over US Capitol riot

Moving to Idaho to prepare for civil war?

The American Redoubt movement marries Christian nationalism with the idea of armed rural living in preparation for doomsday, and civil war.

First coined in an online essay posted to a survival blog by former US Army intelligence officer James Wesley Rawles in 2011, the so-called American Redoubt refers to a mountainous area where around 90% or more of the people are white.

It covers Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and parts of Washington and Oregon, in America’s sparsely-populated northwest.

Rawles encourages “freedom-loving Christians” to vote with their feet and congregate in the American Redoubt and prepare for the collapse of society.

He has predicted that increasing polarisation in American politics will lead to armed conflict.

“It will be the second civil war, here in America and caused by the gulf between the right and left – or between the godly and the godless – or between the libertarians and the statists – or between the individualists and the collectivists.”

It’s hard to estimate how many people have been inspired to move to the American Redoubt, but there’s certainly no shortage of estate agents advertising “redoubt” homes online.

One company, Flee The City, tells prospective customers it will find them rural properties that will give them the “safety and security we all require during turbulent periods”.

Customers who purchase a property receive an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle as a closing gift.

While Flee The City’s website says its clientele “hails from diverse backgrounds” all customers must “respect the Constitution and Bill of Rights”.

Screengrab from Flee the City's website. ONLY FOR USE WITH CHRISTIAN NATIONALISM FEATURE WITH EDITORIAL SIGNOFF
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A deadly gift for buyers of survival homes. Pic: Flee the City

This is far more muted language than that used when the company was known as Black Rifle Real Estate and ruled out “snowflakes, liberals, socialists, Marxists, communists and other tyrants that hate our constitutional republic”.

“The reward for taking a stand and seeing your family safe as the sanctuary cities are burned to the ground? Priceless,” it told customers on a now-archived version of its website.

Flee The City did not respond to a request for comment.

How popular is Christian nationalism?

And it’s not just in the American Redoubt that Christian nationalist ideas have been taking hold, but nationwide.

A poll of more than 6,000 Americans by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) and the Brookings Institution asked if people agreed with various statements including “God has called Christians to exercise dominion over all areas of American society”.

The survey found that more than half of Republicans were at least sympathetic to Christian nationalism.

Christian nationalism was also tightly tied with support for Donald Trump, the data suggests, with 71% of adherents holding a favourable view of the former president.

President Donald Trump holds a Bible as he visits outside St. John's Church across Lafayette Park from the White House Monday, June 1, 2020, in Washington. Part of the church was set on fire during protests on Sunday night. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Image:
Some of those adhering to Christian nationalist views are also highly supportive of Donald Trump

“White Christian nationalism is the greatest threat to democracy and the witness of the church in the United States today,” says New York Times bestselling historian Jemar Tisby.

Speaking at a panel discussion of the survey’s findings in February, he said the racial dimensions of Christian nationalism cannot be overlooked and that it typically sees a resurgence around times when black rights are expanding.

“Christian nationalism turns around a sense of loss,” chimed in Kristin Kobes du Mez, a professor of history at Calvin University.

She said there are “clear anti-democratic impulses” in Christian nationalist beliefs, with some adherents holding the law of God above that of democracy.

Michael Flynn, a retired three-star general who served as Trump's national security adviser, speaks on stage during the ReAwaken America tour at Cornerstone Church, in Batavia, N.Y., Friday, Aug. 12, 2022. Thousands of people gathered to hear his message that the nation is facing an existential threat, and to save it, his supporters must act...(AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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Mike Flynn has been taking his talk of ‘spiritual war’ across America. Pic: AP

‘Spiritual war’ – Trump ally’s ReAwaken America tour

Former three-star general Mike Flynn was appointed as Trump’s national security advisor but resigned after just a few weeks. He pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and was later pardoned by the former president.

More recently he has been known for his ReAwaken America tour and the Christian nationalist ideas he has been preaching far and wide.

“If we are going to have one nation under God, which we must, we have to have one religion. One nation under God, and one religion under God, right?” he said at a church in Texas.

He has said that a “spiritual war” is going on in America.

FILE - Michael Flynn, a retired three-star general who served as President Donald Trump's national security advisor, autographs a picture of a girl wrapped in an American flag during the ReAwaken America Tour at Cornerstone Church in Batavia, N.Y., Aug. 12, 2022. Flynn, one of the tour's founders and its star, warned the crowd that they were in the midst of a "spiritual war" and urges people to get involved in local politics." (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Image:
Mike Flynn signs a picture of a girl at a church in New York state. Pic: AP

And it now seems Flynn could be bringing his firebrand Christian rhetoric to the White House, with Trump telling him on stage: “We’re going to bring you back.”

Sky News approached Mr Flynn for comment but did not receive a response.

Colin Beck, a professor at Pomona College and an expert in social movements, says that while it’s correct to describe Christian nationalism as “nativism and racism together dressed up in symbols of Christianity and patriotism”, it has also become something people identify with who would not consider it in that way.

He told Sky News that it has come to dominate the image of the Republican party, but he has diverged from some academics in his belief that its influence will “boomerang” and retreat from politics over the next decade.

On the ground in Idaho

In Idaho the impact of the coordinated efforts of Christians moving to the area and engaging with local politics is clear to see.

“Some of these individuals are very focussed on getting elected into office and have been for well over a decade now”, says democracy activist Alicia Abbott.

“They’re rising to different levels of power, everywhere from our library and school boards all the way up to our state legislatures.”

Cherry Lane library, Meridian . Pic: Meridian Library District
Image:
Cherry Lane library, Meridian. Pic: Meridian Library District

In Meridian, a local group campaigned to dissolve the city’s library district entirely, claiming it allowed children to access sexually explicit material. The library district said this was not true.

But Abbott, who works for anti-extremism group The Idaho 97 Project, says the Concerned Citizens of Meridian group have been trying to get books banned “under the guise that they are grooming young adults” – something she says is “blatantly false”.

“They’re targeting LGBTQIA age-appropriate material and they are organising quite effectively around the narrative that librarians are checking out ‘pornography’ to kids.”

Abbott said “manipulative efforts” are being used to recruit people into Christian nationalism, but emphasised that it doesn’t reflect the general opinions of Idahoans.

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All across America, abortion rights are under threat

Christian nationalism ‘not some means to bring white order’

But not everyone believes Christian nationalism is a racist movement.

Stephen Wolfe is a scholar who recently published a book called The Case For Christian Nationalism, in which he outlines his vision for America – and says Christian nationalists are a “threat”.

In an interview with Pastor Wilson, he said accusations that Christian nationalism is a dog whistle for white supremacy were “false”.

He adds: “It’s not some means to bring back some sort of white supremacy or white order, it’s just identifying what is true on the ground.”

Jeremy LaPointe of Lumberton, Texas, holds a cross as he joins supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump gathered outside the U.S. Capitol where Congress will meet to certify the electoral college vote for President-elect Joe Biden, in Washington, U.S., January 6, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Theiler
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A cross seen outside the Capitol in Washington DC. Pic: AP

He talks about the idea of Christian nationalism being “a Christian nation that is kind of self-conscious of itself as a Christian people”.

Wolfe says he doesn’t want religious neutrality and calls for American institutions to reflect the “fact” that the US is a Christian nation.

“We should have Christian magistrates and Christian governments that enforce Christian norms on the public, in the public, and also ensure that public institutions such as schools are Christian as well.”

Asked if secularism – the separation of church and state – is in trouble, he says: “I hope so”.

“If Christians get serious then yeah, we’re a threat…

“I’m not talking about overthrowing the government, I’m not talking about overthrowing the state. I’m talking about the regime as in the people who kind of control the forces of society…”

“I’m not calling for someone to go shoot up something,” he clarifies.

When approached for comment by Sky News, Pastor Wilson acknowledged he is what some might call a Christian nationalist.

He said: “Accusations of ‘racism’ and ‘white supremacy’ are pretty easy to come by these days, and I am pleased to report to you that when it comes to the people I represent, the charge is utterly false, and ludicrous on top of that.

“Christian nationalism is not a threat to democracy, but it does pose a threat to godless secularism. If someone has simply equated ‘democracy’ with ‘atheistic secularists always getting their way’, then the charge might make some sense.

“But if one defines democracy as a reasonable mechanism for selecting our leaders via fair and free elections, then we are not opposed to democracy at all.”

Stephen Wolfe did not respond to a request for comment.

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Capitol riots: ‘Intel was a disaster’

Christian nationalism ‘a confused issue’

Dr Albert Mohler, who is president of The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, which trains new pastors, says Christian nationalism is a “confused issue” that is sometimes used as a “term of abuse”.

He told Sky News: “In a modern era in which secularisation is considered by the elites to be the norm, anyone who shows up speaking about Christianity in terms of national politics is going to be accused of being a Christian nationalist.”

Dr Mohler, who says he believes in “traditional sexual morality” and believes there are only two genders, said he understands the “propaganda value” in suggesting Christian nationalism is a cover for white supremacy as a way to dismiss it.

Asked if he considers himself to be a Christian nationalist, he said: “I’ve never used the term, but I am a Christian and I believe in the importance of the nation and a Christian influence in the nation.

“So there are some people on the left who would claim that anyone who holds such a position is a Christian nationalist. I’m not going to run from that, but it is not a term that I use of myself.”

Matias Perttula is director of the centre of American values at America First Policy Institute thinktank.

He echoes the idea that people “of other political leanings” tend to overexaggerate Christian or religious expression and “use it as a way to advance their own political agenda”.

Perttula said it was important to have civil dialogue and not approach it from an attitude of creating division.

After January 6, is American democracy under threat from Christian nationalism?

“Christian nationalism is a very serious problem for the United States and specifically for American democracy,” says Amanda Tyler.

Tyler is executive director of Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty, a non-profit dedicated to upholding freedom of religion for all people.

She argues that Christian nationalism is both “un-American and un-Christian”.

“It morphs God’s love into an ideology that subjugates our neighbours, creates an ‘us’ versus ‘them’ narrative, and can even threaten their lives,” she says.

A key “myth” associated with the movement, according to Ms Tyler, is that America was founded as a “Christian nation”.

“And until we deal with some of those underlying myths and beliefs, we won’t be able to dismantle Christian nationalism.”

MARCH 2nd 2023: The United States Department of Justice says former President Donald Trump is not entitled to immunity from civil lawsuits over the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol Building. - MAY 19th 2021: The United States House of Representatives has passed a bipartisan bill to create a special commission to investigate the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol Building. - File Photo by: zz/STRF/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 1/6/21 QAnon Shaman Jake Angeli is seen as The United States Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. was breached by thousands of protesters during a "Stop The Steal" rally in support of President Donald Trump during the worldwide coronavirus pandemic. The demonstrators were protesting the results of the 2020 United States presidential election where Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden. While there was a significant police presence attempting to keep the peace - including law enforcement officers and agents from The U.S. Capitol Police, The Virginia State Police, The Metropolitan Police of The District of Columbia, The National Guard, and The FBI - demonstrators used chemical irritants to breach the interior of The Capitol Building. This, while the Democratic Party gained control of The United States Senate - sweeping the Georgia Runoff Election and securing two additional seats. (Washington, D.C.)
Image:
The so-called QAnon Shaman, Jacob Chansley, seen at the scene of the Capitol riots

She says Christian nationalism “helped fuel” the Washington DC insurrection that sought to overturn the 2020 election, but that the ideology has been gaining steam since then.

Let’s look back at one particular moment from 6 January that might get overlooked among the frenzy and the violence.

After the braying crowd breached the barricades and poured inside, a small number emerged on the floor of the Senate chamber and – in a strange scene – gathered in prayer.

“Thank you Heavenly Father for this opportunity to stand up for our God-given unalienable rights,” Jacob Chansley, the so-called QAnon shaman, shouted through a megaphone.

“Thank you for allowing the United States of America to be reborn.”

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US warplanes transit through UK as Trump considers striking Iran

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US warplanes transit through UK as Trump considers striking Iran

Flight tracking data shows extensive movement of US military aircraft towards the Middle East in recent days, including via the UK.

Fifty-two US military planes were spotted flying over the eastern Mediterranean towards the Middle East between Monday and Thursday.

That includes at least 25 that passed through Chania airport, on the Greek island of Crete – an eight-fold increase in the rate of arrivals compared to the first half of June.

The movement of military equipment comes as the US considers whether to assist Israel in its conflict with Iran.

Of the 52 planes spotted over the eastern Mediterranean, 32 are used for transporting troops or cargo, 18 are used for mid-air refuelling and two are reconnaissance planes.

Forbes McKenzie, founder of McKenzie Intelligence, says that this indicates “the build-up of warfighting capability, which was not [in the region] before”.

Sky’s data does not include fighter jets, which typically fly without publicly revealing their location.

An air traffic control recording from Wednesday suggests that F-22 Raptors are among the planes being sent across the Atlantic, while 12 F-35 fighter jets were photographed travelling from the UK to the Middle East on Wednesday.

A US air tanker seen flying over England, accompanied by F-35 jets. Credit: Instagram/g.lockaviation
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A US air tanker seen flying over Suffolk, accompanied by F-35 jets. Pic: Instagram/g.lockaviation

Many US military planes are passing through UK

A growing number of US Air Force planes have been passing through the UK in recent days.

Analysis of flight tracking data at three key air bases in the UK shows 63 US military flights landing between 16 and 19 June – more than double the rate of arrivals earlier in June.

On Thursday, Sky News filmed three US military C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft and a C-130 Hercules military cargo plane arriving at Glasgow’s Prestwick Airport.

Flight tracking data shows that one of the planes arrived from an air base in Jordan, having earlier travelled there from Germany.

What does Israel need from US?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 15 March that his country’s aim is to remove “two existential threats – the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat”.

Israel says that Iran is attempting to develop a nuclear bomb, though Iran says its nuclear facilities are only for civilian energy purposes.

A US intelligence assessment in March concluded that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. President Trump dismissed the assessment on Tuesday, saying: “I think they were very close to having one.”

Forbes McKenzie says the Americans have a “very similar inventory of weapons systems” to the Israelis, “but of course, they also have the much-talked-about GBU-57”.

A GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. in 2023. File pic: US Air Force via AP
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A GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri in 2023. File pic: US Air Force via AP

The GBU-57 is a 30,000lb bomb – the largest non-nuclear bomb in existence. Mr McKenzie explains that it is “specifically designed to destroy targets which are very deep underground”.

Experts say it is the only weapon with any chance of destroying Iran’s main enrichment site, which is located underneath a mountain at Fordow.

Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant
Image:
Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant

Air-to-air refuelling could allow Israel to carry larger bombs

Among the dozens of US aircraft that Sky News tracked over the eastern Mediterranean in recent days, more than a third (18 planes) were designed for air-to-air refuelling.

“These are crucial because Israel is the best part of a thousand miles away from Iran,” says Sky News military analyst Sean Bell.

“Most military fighter jets would struggle to do those 2,000-mile round trips and have enough combat fuel.”

The ability to refuel mid-flight would also allow Israeli planes to carry heavier munitions, including bunker-buster bombs necessary to destroy the tunnels and silos where Iran stores many of its missiles.

Satellite imagery captured on 15 June shows the aftermath of Israeli strikes on a missile facility near the western city of Kermanshah, which destroyed at least 12 buildings at the site.

Destroyed buildings at entrance to Kermanshah missile facility, Iran, 15 June 2025. Pic: Maxar
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Seven of the 12 destroyed buildings at Kermanshah missile facility, Iran, 15 June 2025. Pic: Maxar

At least four tunnel entrances were also damaged in the strikes, two of which can be seen in the image below.

Damaged tunnel entrances at Kermanshah missile facility, Iran, 15 June 2025. Pic: Maxar
Image:
Damaged tunnel entrances at Kermanshah missile facility, Iran, 15 June 2025. Pic: Maxar

Writing for Jane’s Defence Weekly, military analyst Jeremy Binnie says it looked like the tunnels were “targeted using guided munitions coming in at angles, not destroyed from above using penetrator bombs, raising the possibility that the damage can be cleared, enabling any [missile launchers] trapped inside to deploy”.

“This might reflect the limited payloads that Israeli aircraft can carry to Iran,” he adds.

Penetrator bombs, also known as bunker-busters, are much heavier than other types of munitions and as a result require more fuel to transport.

Israel does not have the latest generation of refuelling aircraft, Mr Binnie says, meaning it is likely to struggle to deploy a significant number of penetrator bombs.

Israel has struck most of Iran’s western missile bases

Even without direct US assistance, the Israeli air force has managed to inflict significant damage on Iran’s missile launch capacity.

Sky News has confirmed Israeli strikes on at least five of Iran’s six known missile bases in the west of the country.

On Monday, the IDF said that its strategy of targeting western launch sites had forced Iran to rely on its bases in the centre of the country, such as Isfahan – around 1,500km (930 miles) from Israel.

Among Iran’s most advanced weapons are three types of solid-fuelled rockets fitted with highly manoeuvrable warheads: Fattah-1, Kheibar Shekan and Haj Qassam.

The use of solid fuel makes these missiles easy to transport and fast to launch, while their manoeuvrable warheads make them better at evading Israeli air defences. However, none of them are capable of striking Israel from such a distance.

Iran is known to possess five types of missile capable of travelling more than 1,500km, but only one of these uses solid fuel – the Sijjil-1.

On 18 June, Iran claimed to have used this missile against Israel for the first time.

Iran’s missiles have caused significant damage

Iran’s missile attacks have killed at least 24 people in Israel and wounded hundreds, according to the Israeli foreign ministry.

The number of air raid alerts in Israel has topped 1,000 every day since the start of hostilities, reaching a peak of 3,024 on 15 June.

Iran has managed to strike some government buildings, including one in the city of Haifa on Friday.

And on 13 June, in Iran’s most notable targeting success so far, an Iranian missile impacted on or near the headquarters of Israel’s defence ministry in Tel Aviv.

Most of the Iranian strikes verified by Sky News, however, have hit civilian targets. These include residential buildings, a school and a university.

On Thursday, one missile hit the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba, southern Israel’s main hospital. More than 70 people were injured, according to Israel’s health ministry.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran had struck a nearby technology park containing an IDF cyber defence training centre, and that the “blast wave caused superficial damage to a small section” of the hospital.

However, the technology park is in fact 1.2km away from where the missile struck.

Photos of the hospital show evidence of a direct hit, with a large section of one building’s roof completely destroyed.

A general view of Soroka  hospital following a missile strike from Iran on Israel.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
A general view of Soroka hospital following a missile strike from Iran on Israel.
Pic: Reuters

Iran successfully struck the technology park on Friday, though its missile fell in an open area, causing damage to a nearby residential building but no casualties.

Israel has killed much of Iran’s military leadership

It’s not clear exactly how many people Israel’s strikes in Iran have killed, or how many are civilians. Estimates by human rights groups of the total number of fatalities exceed 600.

What is clear is that among the military personnel killed are many key figures in the Iranian armed forces, including the military’s chief of staff, deputy head of intelligence and deputy head of operations.

Key figures in the powerful Revolutionary Guard have also been killed, including the militia’s commander-in-chief, its aerospace force commander and its air defences commander.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that US assistance was not necessary for Israel to win the war.

“We will achieve all our objectives and hit all of their nuclear facilities,” he said. “We have the capability to do that.”

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How close is Iran to producing a nuclear weapon?

Forbes McKenzie says that while Israel has secured significant victories in the war so far, “they only have so much fuel, they only have so many munitions”.

“The Americans have an ability to keep up the pace of operations that the Israelis have started, and they’re able to do it for an indefinite period of time.”

Additional reporting by data journalist Joely Santa Cruz and OSINT producers Freya Gibson, Lina-Sirine Zitout and Sam Doak.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Trump’s two-week timeline: What next for Iran?

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Trump's two-week timeline: What next for Iran?

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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has said Donald Trump will make a decision on whether to militarily strike Iran in the next two weeks. That’s as diplomatic talks between Western governments and the Iranians ramp up.

In today’s episode, US correspondents Mark Stone and Martha Kelner unpick why the delay might be, and the competing voices in the ears of the president.

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

Don’t forget, you can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

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Trump’s update on Iran timeline is significant – but it still keeps everyone guessing

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Trump's update on Iran timeline is significant - but it still keeps everyone guessing

This is the most significant statement from the US president in days, though it still keeps everyone guessing.

In a message conveyed through his press secretary, he is giving diplomacy up to two weeks to work.

“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Karoline Leavitt quoted him as saying.

It is not clear what “whether or not to go” entails.

Israel-Iran conflict: Latest updates

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Trump: Iran ‘weeks away’ from nuclear weapon

We know that he has been given a spectrum of different military options by his generals and we know that the Israelis are pressuring him to use American B2 bombers with their bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s nuclear facility at Fodow.

The Israelis are encouraging no delay. But against that, he is weighing up many risks, both military and political.

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Militarily, it is not clear how successful a bunker-busting strike on Fordow would be.

Experts have suggested it would require several of the massive bombs, which have never been used in combat before, to be dropped on the site.

It is not as simple as one clean strike and job done.

Politically, the president is under significant pressure domestically not to get involved in Iran.

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MAGA civil war breaks out over Iran

Within his own MAGA coalition – influencers, politicians and media personalities are lining up in criticism of involvement in the conflict.

One of those leading the criticism, his former chief strategist Steve Bannon, who maintains huge influence, was seen entering the White House on Thursday.

His press secretary reiterated to us that the president always wants to give diplomacy a chance and she confirmed that his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has spoken to the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.

Steve Bannon speaks at a conservative conference in Maryland earlier this month. Pic: AP
Image:
Steve Bannon, seen recently at a conservative event in Maryland, is against US involvement in Iran. Pic: AP

European leaders, including the UK foreign secretary David Lammy, who is in Washington, are meeting Mr Araghchi in Geneva on Friday.

The two-week window – assuming it lasts that long – also gives space to better prepare for any strike and mitigate against some of the other risks of US involvement.

Read more from Sky News:
Is Trump losing his MAGA support?
Gantz defends conflict with Iran
‘Love Trump’ says Israeli minister

There are 40,000 troops in bases across the Middle East. It takes time to increase security at these bases or to move non-essential personnel out. It also takes time to move strategic military assets into the region.

The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and its support vessels were redeployed from the Indo-Pacific on Monday. Their last known position was the Strait of Malacca two days ago.

The Nimitz Carrier Group will overlap with the USS Carl Vinson group which was deployed to the Middle East in March.

The potential two-week window also allows for more time for a ‘day after’ plan, given that the Israeli strategy appears to be regime change from within.

Since the Israeli action in Iran began last week, the worst-case scenario of mass casualties in Israel from Iranian attacks has not materialised.

The president is said to be surprised and encouraged by this. “Israel has exceeded a lot of people’s expectations in their abilities,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

The Israeli success, the absence of a mass casualty event in Israel, and the lack of any sustained counterattack by Iranian proxies in the region remove reservations that previous presidents have had about taking on Iran.

That said, sources have told Sky News that the president is determined that the diplomatic solution should be given a chance despite current pessimism over the chances of success.

A critical two weeks ahead.

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