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While pressure builds on President Zelenskyy to deliver some form of progress with the Ukrainian offensive, he is not the only leader under pressure.

Away from the battlefields, there is growing evidence that President Putin‘s authority and support base is waning as cracks start to form in the foundations of his regime.

Is there a whiff of blood in the air around Moscow, and will Putin’s evident troubles provide Ukraine (and the international community) the opportunity to capitalise?

Ukraine war – live updates

Although Putin would have felt emboldened by Russia‘s relatively simple success in annexing Crimea in 2014, he could never have imagined that, nearly 18 months into his invasion of Ukraine, Russia could have become embroiled in such an attritional and damaging conflict.

Putin’s ambitions to halt the expansion of NATO, restore Russian “greatness”, and grow the Russian economy, have all failed to materialise. Instead, NATO has expanded, Russia has become a pariah on the global stage, and its economy is suffering under a mass of Western sanctions.

Although the Russian population is fed a Kremlin-controlled diet of Russia-friendly news, the Russian elite – whose support Putin requires – are feeling the growing impact of the sanctions.

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Oil and gas revenues remain strong, but with over one million fighting-age Russian males having fled to avoid conscription, the Russian economy is contracting. And the elite will also be aware that Putin’s indictment by the International Criminal Court will have enduing impacts on Russia’s ability to recover once the conflict is over.

Putin is rapidly becoming the problem that Russia needs to solve.

Following Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s abortive coup attempt, Putin will be concerned at the apparent ease with which he was able to advance on Moscow. Did he act alone or were his actions a barometer of wide discontent?

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Sean Bell’s assessment on the progress of the counteroffensive

Authoritarian leaders generally do not enjoy a comfortable retirement – they usually suffer a swift and often brutal end as a successor sweeps to power. But, Putin cannot afford a widespread purge for fear of fanning the flames of a further coup, leaving him struggling to know who he can trust.

Russia’s limited military successes to date have been delivered by the Wagner mercenaries, but they can no longer be trusted by Putin. Russia is on the back foot in Ukraine, but Putin will also need to bolster his domestic security, and retaining his grip on power will be a priority.

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This all places increasing pressure on his limited military resources, forcing compromise and prioritisation, all of which risks diluting military forces in Ukraine.

A way out – with losing face

At the start of the war Putin probably felt that time was on Russia’s side – the longer the war continued the greater the chance that Western unity and resolve would dissipate.

However, now time appears to favour Ukraine – Russia continues to lose ground in Ukraine and Putin probably needs to find a way out of the conflict, without losing face, to consolidate his loosening grip on power.

That might go some way to explaining why he has pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal and targeted Ukrainian grain – in direct contravention of the Geneva Convention and international law. By reducing the global supply of grain, Putin has driven up prices: this will not hurt the West but will increase Russian profits as the world’s leading exporter of grain.

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The president’s days in charge appear to be ebbing away

However, it might also prompt the global community to find a way to avert a global famine disaster and bring international pressure to bear on both sides in the conflict to negotiate. Putin would probably be wary of proactively calling for a ceasefire – he would be seen as doing so from a position of weakness.

However, if the international community obliged him to negotiate, he could exploit the opportunity to conclude the war in Ukraine, perhaps retain Crimea and elements of the Donbas, cede the land bridge, and thus declare victory in his “special military operation” – at least to a domestic audience.

A pyrrhic victory from the West’s perspective, but a lifeline perhaps for a beleaguered Putin.

Read more:
Putin could be out of power within a year, says ex-British spy – here’s how

Away from the battlefields, many analysts are now predicting that Putin’s days are numbered. His unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine has diminished Russia’s credibility, damaged its economy, and increased Russia’s vulnerability by exposing the woeful state of its military capability.

It is more important than ever that the West holds its nerve and composure, maintains international pressure on the Putin regime and continues to support Ukraine’s battle to expel the Russian invaders.

Western concerns about the lack of Ukrainian progress on the battlefield are justified, but Ukrainian strategic victory in this conflict might not only be predicated on battlefield progress.

Putin has probably already lost this war, and his future is looking increasingly untenable.

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Stranded Chinese astronauts return to Earth after space capsule damaged

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Stranded Chinese astronauts return to Earth after space capsule damaged

Three Chinese astronauts have successfully returned to Earth from their nation’s space station after their capsule was damaged.

The team deployed a red and white striped parachute as they descended, before landing at a remote site in the Gobi Desert in Asia on Friday.

The astronauts – Chen Dong, Chen Zhongrui and Wang Jie – had been due to return on 5 November to end their six-month rotation at the Tiangong space station.

However, their journey back was delayed by nine days because the Shenzhou-20 return capsule they were due to travel in was found to have tiny cracks.

These were most likely caused by the impact of space debris hitting the craft, China’s space agency said.

There are millions of pieces of mostly tiny particles that circle the Earth at speeds faster than a bullet.

They can come from launches and collisions and pose a risk to satellites, space stations and the astronauts who operate outside them.

With the Shenzhou-20 out of action, the crew – who travelled to the space station in April – used a Shenzhou-21 craft instead, which had brought a three-person replacement crew to the station.

The launch of the Shenzhou-21 craft from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu province, China, on 31 October. Pic: Kyodo via AP
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The launch of the Shenzhou-21 craft from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu province, China, on 31 October. Pic: Kyodo via AP

The Chinese space agency said the stranded taikonauts – the Chinese word for astronauts – had remained in good condition throughout.

The first module of the Tiangong, which means “Heavenly Palace”, was launched by the Chinese state in 2021.

It is smaller than the International Space Station, from which Beijing is blocked, due to US national security concerns.

China’s space programme has developed steadily since 2003.

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In a long term plan to advance its orbital capabilities, China plans to land a person on the moon by 2030 and has already explored Mars with a robotic rover.

The Asian nation’s latest space mission brought four mice to study how weightlessness and confinement would affect them.

An engineer from the Chinese Academy of Sciences said the study will help master key technologies for breeding and monitoring small mammals in space.

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High Court rules company liable for Brazil dam collapse – the country’s worst environmental disaster

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High Court rules company liable for Brazil dam collapse - the country's worst environmental disaster

A judge has ruled that a company can be held liable for a dam collapse which devastated indigenous communities in Brazil and became the country’s worst environmental catastrophe.

At the High Court in London, Judge Finola O’Farrell ruled that mining giant BHP should not have continued to raise the height of the Fundao Dam before its collapse.

This, she ruled, was “a direct and immediate cause” of the disaster. BHP said immediately after that it would appeal the decision.

The case was brought in British courts because BHP was listed on the London Stock Exchange at the time of the collapse.

Brought by the international law firm Pogust Goodhead on behalf of hundreds of thousands of victims, the claim marks the first time any of the mining companies behind the dam have been held legally responsible for the disaster.

The dam’s collapse released approximately 40 million tons of toxic sludge, including arsenic, which spread 370 miles along the Doce River and out to sea. In total, 19 people died, while hundreds of homes were destroyed.

The case has become the largest environmental group action in English legal history, representing a significant milestone for holding corporations accountable and advancing environmental justice.

Gelvana Rodrigues da Silva, who lost her seven-year-old son Thiago in the flood, said in a statement: “Finally, justice has begun to be served, and those responsible have been held accountable for destroying our lives.”

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

One of the largest civil claims ever in England

The Fundao Dam near the city of Mariana was operated by Samarco, a joint venture between BHP and Brazilian company Vale.

Its collapse happened almost 10 years ago to the day.

With 620,000 claimants, the case is one of the largest civil claims ever lodged in England and Wales.

The aftermath of the disaster in Bento Rodrigues district, Brazil. Pic: Reuters
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The aftermath of the disaster in Bento Rodrigues district, Brazil. Pic: Reuters

A damaged house in Bento Rodrigues district. Pic: Reuters
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A damaged house in Bento Rodrigues district. Pic: Reuters

Brazil is currently hosting the COP30 climate summit in the Amazonian city of Belem, aiming to position itself as a climate leader and champion of indigenous rights.

Shirley Djukurna Krenak, an indigenous leader whose community has lived for generations along the Doce River, said the summit is removed from the realities faced by indigenous peoples, and full of “greenwashing” and false promises.

“If all the previous COPs had worked, we wouldn’t still be talking about crimes like this,” she said.

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In October 2024, Brazil’s government and the states of Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo signed a 132bn Brazilian real (£20bn) compensation settlement with Samarco, Vale and BHP, to fund social and environmental repairs.

BHP had argued that the court case in Britain duplicates other legal proceedings and reparations work.

Reacting to Friday’s judgment, the company said that settlements in Brazil would reduce the size of the London lawsuit by about half.

Vale, the co-owner of the company operating the dam, announced after the verdict that it estimated an additional expense of about $500m (£381m) in its 2025 financial statements to cover obligations linked to the disaster.

A second trial to determine the damages BHP is liable to pay is due to begin in October 2026.

The entrance of the Fabrica Nova iron ore mine in Mariana, Brazil, in November 2015. Pic: Reuters
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The entrance of the Fabrica Nova iron ore mine in Mariana, Brazil, in November 2015. Pic: Reuters

How the Mariana dam disaster unfolded

On 5 November 2015, the Fundao tailings dam collapsed in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

It released approximately 40 million tons of toxic sludge, including arsenic, which buried the small town of Bento Rodrigues and poured pollution into the Doce River.

The mud travelled so quickly that residents did not have time to escape, and it killed 19 people. Around 600 people lost their homes.

The toxic waste made its way to the Atlantic Ocean, destroying water supplies, vehicles, habitats, livestock and livelihoods.

Ten years later, reconstruction and reparations have dragged on through legal disputes, and the indigenous Krenak people are still struggling to live along the Doce River that remains contaminated with heavy metals.

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Sudan’s top paramilitary adviser says US calls to cut supply of weapons may ‘jeopardise ceasefire’

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Sudan's top paramilitary adviser says US calls to cut supply of weapons may 'jeopardise ceasefire'

A top adviser to the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, has said US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s remarks on halting weapons supplies “jeopardise ceasefire efforts”.

In his remarks yesterday, Mr Rubio called for international powers to stop sending military support to the RSF, the paramilitary group which has been at war with the Sudanese Army since 2023.

“This needs to stop. They’re clearly receiving assistance from outside,” Mr Rubio said.

In a statement on X, Elbasha Tibeig, adviser to RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, dismissed Mr Rubio’s comments as “an unsuccessful step” that does not serve global efforts aimed at reaching a humanitarian ceasefire.

Mr Tibeig said Mr Rubio’s comments may lead to an escalation of the fighting.

The US, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt – known as the Quad – have been working on ways to end the war.

The war began in April 2023 after the Sudanese army and RSF, then partners, clashed over plans to integrate.

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Last week, the RSF said they had agreed to a US-led proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire. Mr Rubio doesn’t believe the RSF intends to comply with that agreement.

“The RSF has concluded that they’re winning and they want to keep going,” he said yesterday.

He added that they’re “not just fighting a war, which war alone is bad enough. They’re committing acts of sexual violence and atrocities, just horrifying atrocities, against women, children, innocent civilians of the most horrific kind. And it needs to end immediately”.

Sudanese women who fled intense fighting in Al Fashir sit at a displacement camp in Al Dabba. Pic: Reuters/El Tayeb Siddig
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Sudanese women who fled intense fighting in Al Fashir sit at a displacement camp in Al Dabba. Pic: Reuters/El Tayeb Siddig

The war has killed at least 40,000 people, according to the World Health Organisation, and displaced millions more. Aid groups say that the true death toll could be much higher.

The RSF is accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity across Sudan since the war started. Most recently, there were reports of mass killings during the fall of Al Fashir, a city which was recently captured by the RSF.

A Sky News investigation into events in Al Fashir found thousands were targeted in ‘killing fields’ around the Sudanese city.

Grab from RSF social media channels in Al Fashir, Sudan
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Grab from RSF social media channels in Al Fashir, Sudan

Marco Rubio did not specify which countries he was referring to in his calls to halt arms supplies, but US intelligence assessments have found that the United Arab Emirates, a close US ally, has been supplying weapons.

Previous reporting on Sky News has supported allegations that the UAE militarily supports the RSF, though the country officially denies it.

“I can just tell you, at the highest levels of our government, that case is being made and that pressure is being applied to the relevant parties,” Mr Rubio said.

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