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While pressure builds on President Zelenskyy to deliver some form of progress with the Ukrainian offensive, he is not the only leader under pressure.

Away from the battlefields, there is growing evidence that President Putin‘s authority and support base is waning as cracks start to form in the foundations of his regime.

Is there a whiff of blood in the air around Moscow, and will Putin’s evident troubles provide Ukraine (and the international community) the opportunity to capitalise?

Ukraine war – live updates

Although Putin would have felt emboldened by Russia‘s relatively simple success in annexing Crimea in 2014, he could never have imagined that, nearly 18 months into his invasion of Ukraine, Russia could have become embroiled in such an attritional and damaging conflict.

Putin’s ambitions to halt the expansion of NATO, restore Russian “greatness”, and grow the Russian economy, have all failed to materialise. Instead, NATO has expanded, Russia has become a pariah on the global stage, and its economy is suffering under a mass of Western sanctions.

Although the Russian population is fed a Kremlin-controlled diet of Russia-friendly news, the Russian elite – whose support Putin requires – are feeling the growing impact of the sanctions.

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Oil and gas revenues remain strong, but with over one million fighting-age Russian males having fled to avoid conscription, the Russian economy is contracting. And the elite will also be aware that Putin’s indictment by the International Criminal Court will have enduing impacts on Russia’s ability to recover once the conflict is over.

Putin is rapidly becoming the problem that Russia needs to solve.

Following Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s abortive coup attempt, Putin will be concerned at the apparent ease with which he was able to advance on Moscow. Did he act alone or were his actions a barometer of wide discontent?

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Sean Bell’s assessment on the progress of the counteroffensive

Authoritarian leaders generally do not enjoy a comfortable retirement – they usually suffer a swift and often brutal end as a successor sweeps to power. But, Putin cannot afford a widespread purge for fear of fanning the flames of a further coup, leaving him struggling to know who he can trust.

Russia’s limited military successes to date have been delivered by the Wagner mercenaries, but they can no longer be trusted by Putin. Russia is on the back foot in Ukraine, but Putin will also need to bolster his domestic security, and retaining his grip on power will be a priority.

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This all places increasing pressure on his limited military resources, forcing compromise and prioritisation, all of which risks diluting military forces in Ukraine.

A way out – with losing face

At the start of the war Putin probably felt that time was on Russia’s side – the longer the war continued the greater the chance that Western unity and resolve would dissipate.

However, now time appears to favour Ukraine – Russia continues to lose ground in Ukraine and Putin probably needs to find a way out of the conflict, without losing face, to consolidate his loosening grip on power.

That might go some way to explaining why he has pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal and targeted Ukrainian grain – in direct contravention of the Geneva Convention and international law. By reducing the global supply of grain, Putin has driven up prices: this will not hurt the West but will increase Russian profits as the world’s leading exporter of grain.

Image:
The president’s days in charge appear to be ebbing away

However, it might also prompt the global community to find a way to avert a global famine disaster and bring international pressure to bear on both sides in the conflict to negotiate. Putin would probably be wary of proactively calling for a ceasefire – he would be seen as doing so from a position of weakness.

However, if the international community obliged him to negotiate, he could exploit the opportunity to conclude the war in Ukraine, perhaps retain Crimea and elements of the Donbas, cede the land bridge, and thus declare victory in his “special military operation” – at least to a domestic audience.

A pyrrhic victory from the West’s perspective, but a lifeline perhaps for a beleaguered Putin.

Read more:
Putin could be out of power within a year, says ex-British spy – here’s how

Away from the battlefields, many analysts are now predicting that Putin’s days are numbered. His unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine has diminished Russia’s credibility, damaged its economy, and increased Russia’s vulnerability by exposing the woeful state of its military capability.

It is more important than ever that the West holds its nerve and composure, maintains international pressure on the Putin regime and continues to support Ukraine’s battle to expel the Russian invaders.

Western concerns about the lack of Ukrainian progress on the battlefield are justified, but Ukrainian strategic victory in this conflict might not only be predicated on battlefield progress.

Putin has probably already lost this war, and his future is looking increasingly untenable.

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What does Sudan execution video tell us?

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What does Sudan execution video tell us?

On 11 April, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its affiliates attacked Zamzam camp in North Darfur.

The RSF is a paramilitary organisation comprised of militias that used to be be aligned with Sudan’s government.

For exactly two years it has been been locked in a civil war with the government’s Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). Both sides have been accused of human rights abuses over the course of the conflict.

After the capture of Zamzam, the RSF claimed in a statement released on Telegram that the camp was being used as a barracks, accusing the SAF of using civilians as “human shields”.

It further claimed, “the Rapid Support Forces were able to secure civilians during the liberation operation and prevent them from being harmed”.

Satellite imagery and footage from the ground paints a darker picture, showing the execution of an unarmed man and widespread fires within the camp at the time of its capture.

Zamzam sits just to the south of Al Fashir, North Darfur’s capital city, which has been a key target of the RSF in recent months.

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Filming of an execution

Shortly after the RSF attack began on 11 April, a video began circulating on social media. It shows a group of gunmen standing over two unarmed men and a child.

One of the men squats in front of a gunman holding an assault rifle. The gunman shoots him at close range, killing him.

The child, less than a meter away, lies face down with his hands covering the back of his head.

A fighter films himself at the execution of an unarmed man.
Image:
A fighter films himself while another executes an unarmed man.

While the footage does not contain much contextual information, the person filming turns the camera to his face before showing a close-up view of the dead body behind him.

Sky News has geolocated a second video showing the same man, wearing the same clothing and equipment, at another location within the camp at the time of its capture.

The footage shows the fighter with a group of gunmen celebrating as they enter a compound in the south of the camp.

Gunfire can be heard, and smoke rises from nearby as the group cheer.

An RSF patch is visible on a fighter filmed by the man present at the execution.
Image:
An RSF patch is visible on a fighter filmed by the man present at the execution.

At one point, a uniformed fighter wearing an RSF patch can be seen, confirming that at least this individual is affiliated with the organisation.

Both videos appear to have been filmed within a short timeframe.

The fighter seen in both videos is wearing the same head covering, clothing and tactical gear. The pattern on his head covering is oriented identically in both, suggesting it has not been removed in the time between filming.

A fighter filmed at two seperate locations wearing the same head covering, clothing and tactical gear.
Image:
A fighter filmed at two seperate locations wearing the same head covering, clothing and tactical gear.

Widespread fires

Available footage and satellite images show the RSF’s capture of Zamzam was closely followed by fires being lit across the camp.

In one video, a man in an RSF uniform can be seen driving on the camp’s main road while thick smoke rises from nearby fires.

Data from FIRMS, a NASA project that uses satellite data to detect thermal anomalies, provides a wider view.

Following the arrival of the RSF on 11 April, fires were detected across the south and east of the camp.

FIRMS data showing thermal anomalies indicating fires following the RSF capture of Zamzam.
Image:
FIRMS data showing thermal anomalies indicating fires following the RSF capture of Zamzam.

More fires were detected in the east and south on 12 April, with areas in the north of the camp being affected on the 13 April.

Satellite imagery showing buildings on fire in Zamzam. Pic: Maxar.
Image:
Satellite imagery showing buildings on fire in Zamzam. Pic: Maxar.

Satellite images form Maxar confirm buildings burned across the south of the camp on April 11, close to where fighters were seen.

On Tuesday, the African Union and European government’s including the UK called for an immediate cessation of the hostilities in which tens of thousands of people have been killed in the last two years.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Ukrainian forces ‘strike Russian brigade’ behind deadly missile attack on Sumy

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Ukrainian forces 'strike Russian brigade' behind deadly missile attack on Sumy

Ukraine’s military says it has struck the base of the Russian missile brigade behind Sunday’s devastating attack on Sumy.

A Russian assault on the city killed 35 people and injured at least 119. Children were among the dead and wounded.

The Ukrainian military has now said it has struck a base of “the 448th missile brigade of the Russian occupiers”.

In a statement on messaging app Telegram, it said the base was “hit [and] a secondary detonation of ammunition was recorded”.

“The results of the strike are being clarified,” it added.

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Aftermath of deadly Russian strike

Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously shared videos of the aftermath of Russia’s Palm Sunday attack, showing dead bodies in the middle of a street in Sumy.

The Ukrainian president said “only scoundrels can act like this” and called for “tough reaction from the world” in posts on social media.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
The assault killed 35 people. Pic: Reuters

Meanwhile, Ukraine‘s foreign ministry said one of the children injured was a baby girl born this year, adding “even newborns are targets for Russia’s crimes”.

NATO on Tuesday reaffirmed its “unwavering” support for Ukraine as the alliance’s secretary-general visited the country.

As he met with Mr Zelenskyy at a hospital in Odesa, Mark Rutte said: “I’m here today because I believe Ukraine’s people deserve real peace, real safety and security in their country, in their homes.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Odesa, Ukraine April 15, 2025. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
Image:
NATO’s Mark Rutte with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Odesa, Ukraine. Pic: Reuters

Mr Rutte also said he and Mr Zelenskyy had discussed the Trump administration’s peace talks with both Russia and Ukraine.

“These discussions are not easy – not least in the wake of this horrific violence – but we all support President Trump’s push for peace,” he said.

Read more:
Russia jails four journalists
Trump blames Zelenskyy for war

His comment came after Mr Trump accused Ukraine of starting the war with Russia.

Rebutting this, Mr Rutte added: “Russia is the aggressor, Russia started this war. There’s no doubt.”

It also follows Russian and Ukrainian diplomats accusing each other of violating a tentative US-brokered deal to pause strikes on energy infrastructure.

“The Ukrainians have been attacking us from the very beginning, every passing day, maybe with two or three exceptions,” Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said, adding that Moscow would provide a list of Kyiv’s attacks from the past three weeks.

Andrii Sybiha, his Ukrainian counterpart, dismissed the claim saying on Saturday that Russia launched “almost 70 missiles, over 2,200 [exploding] drones, and over 6,000 guided aerial bombs at Ukraine, mostly at civilians” since agreeing to the limited pause on strikes.

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Prisons across France attacked ‘in response to crackdown on drug trafficking’

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Prisons across France attacked 'in response to crackdown on drug trafficking'

Several French prisons were attacked overnight in response to government efforts to clamp down on drug trafficking in the country, senior officials said.

Unknown assailants fired automatic weapons at a prison in the southern city of Toulon, while vehicles were burned outside other facilities across the country and staff were threatened.

France’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office said on Tuesday that it had taken charge of the investigation, while the country’s DGSI national security investigation will also be involved.

French media reported that the prisons targeted were in or near cities including Toulon, Aix-En-Provence, Marseille, and the communes of Valence and Nimes.

Prisons were also targeted in the commune of Villepinte and the suburb of Nanterre near Paris, according to reports.

It is not immediately clear whether the attacks were co-ordinated, or who carried them out.

@SyndFoJustice
Image:
Damaged caused by an automatic weapon to the exterior of La Farlede Prison near Toulon. @SyndFoJustice

Pic: @SyndFoJustice
Image:
Damaged caused by an automatic weapon to the exterior of La Farlede Prison near Toulon. @SyndFoJustice

France’s Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, who has led efforts to toughen prison security and crack down on gangsters who run their empires from behind bars, said he would travel to Toulon.

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“Attempts have been made to intimidate staff in several prisons, ranging from burning vehicles to firing automatic weapons,” Mr Darmanin wrote on X.

“I am going to Toulon to support the officers concerned. The French Republic is facing up to the problem of drug trafficking and is taking measures that will massively disrupt the criminal networks.”

Meanwhile, the country’s Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said he had instructed local prefects, alongside the police and gendarmerie, to immediately step up the protection of staff and prisons.

Burnt cars at Villepinte prison parking lot
Pic: @SyndFoJustice
Image:
Burnt cars in the car park of the prison in Villepinte.
Pic: @SyndFoJustice

A ‘white tsunami’ of cocaine

Years of record South American cocaine imports to Europe have supercharged local drug markets, sparking a wave of drug violence across the continent.

Gangs in France have been able to expand from traditional power bases in cities like Marseille into smaller regional towns unaccustomed to drug violence.

The rise in gang crime is thought to have led to increased support for the far-right National Rally party and have helped drag French politics rightward.

Mr Darmanin, a former interior minister, and Mr Retailleau have prioritised tackling drug trafficking.

Read more from Sky News:
‘Exotic cat smuggling ring’ uncovered by police
Trump blames Zelenskyy for starting Ukraine war
US could deport ‘homegrown criminals’ to El Salvador jail

Bruno Retailleau, left, and Gerald Darmanin, right, have prioritised tackling drug trafficking. Pic: AP
Image:
Bruno Retailleau, left, and Gerald Darmanin, right, have prioritised tackling drug trafficking. Pic: AP

In February, Mr Retailleau announced record cocaine seizures of 47 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to 23 tonnes in all of 2023.

Mr Retailleau said France had been hit by a “white tsunami” that had rewritten the rules of the criminal landscape.

Meanwhile, Mr Darmanin has proposed a series of measures to tighten prison security, including isolating the country’s top 100 kingpins.

Lawmakers are also close to approving a sweeping new anti-drug trafficking law that would create a new national organised crime prosecutors’ office and give greater investigative power to police investigating drug gangs.

French authorities scored a win against drug crime in February, when they recaptured Mohamed Amra, a French fugitive known as “The Fly.”

His escape as he was being transported from prison to a court hearing resulted in the deaths of two prison guards and was seized upon by right-wing politicians as evidence that France had lost its grip on drug crime.

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