Rugged roads or easy street? Breaking down CFB’s most and least challenging schedules
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
We know all schedules aren’t created equal.
Another truism in college football is the perceived difficulty of a schedule can vary wildly depending on your vantage point. Let’s just say Alabama’s schedule is probably viewed differently in Birmingham, Alabama, than it is in Columbus, Ohio. The same goes for the perception of Ohio State’s schedule in Atlanta, TCU’s schedule in Baton Rouge and Clemson’s schedule in Los Angeles.
You get the idea.
It’s worth noting that 2023 will provide our first taste of the new-look Big 12 with BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joining the league. It’s also the last season Oklahoma and Texas will compete in the Big 12 before jumping to the SEC in 2024. In addition, the ACC will move away from divisions in 2023, leaving the Big Ten and SEC as the only Power 5 conferences still using that format.
As we do every year at this time, we’ll recognize some schedule superlatives for the 2023 season — some flattering and some not so flattering. All rankings referenced are from ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25. And yes, preseason rankings aren’t always the best guide. Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M all were in the AP’s preseason top 10 a year ago, and all three finished with losing records.
On to the selections:
Toughest overall Power 5 schedule
How would you like to play the nation’s toughest schedule as a second-year coach coming off a losing season in Year 1? Welcome to Billy Napier’s world. Florida opens the season on the road against two-time defending Pac-12 champion Utah and closes at home against bitter rival Florida State, which is ranked No. 3 and is one of the favorites to win the ACC. In between, the Gators have trips to Kentucky, South Carolina and LSU. They face No. 11 Tennessee at home two weeks after opening the season at Utah, and there’s also the annual clash with No. 1 Georgia in Jacksonville — two weeks before visiting LSU on Nov. 11. If you’re counting, that’s six preseason top-25 opponents, with four in the top 15.
Ole Miss isn’t far behind Florida on the challenge meter. The Rebels are the only SEC team playing both Alabama and Georgia on the road.
Easiest overall Power 5 schedule
Jeff Hafley could use a breakthrough season after Boston College‘s the 3-9 finish a year ago, and the good news is the schedule sets up the Eagles to make a run at their most successful season since Hafley arrived in 2020. There are no nonconference games against Power 5 opponents; the Eagles will stay in the Northeast for all four games, and the only road contest is at Army. Four of the Eagles’ first five games are at home, and their toughest ACC matchup is at home against Florida State. Clemson and North Carolina aren’t on the schedule, meaning BC will face just one preseason top-25 team.
The honorable mention in this category goes to two-time defending national champion Georgia. The only game the Dawgs play away from home against a preseason top-25 team is at Tennessee in the next-to-last week of the season on Nov. 18.
Toughest Power 5 nonconference schedule
This was a close one between Pittsburgh and Louisville, both of whom face three Power 5 opponents (including Notre Dame). The Panthers get the nod based on having to play back-to-back games against Cincinnati and West Virginia on Sept. 9 and 16, an especially difficult assignment given how heated the “Backyard Brawl” rivalry is and that it shifts to Morgantown for the first time in the series’ renewal a year ago. In addition, following their trip to Notre Dame on Oct. 28, the Panthers host No. 3 Florida State the next week.
Toughest Group of 5 nonconference schedule
Entering its second season in the Sun Belt Conference, Southern Miss isn’t fleeing from stiff competition outside the league. The Golden Eagles play at Florida State on Sept. 9, then return home to face Tulane on Sept. 16, a pair of preseason top-25 teams being picked to win their respective leagues. Then, on the next-to-last week of the season, Southern Miss visits SEC foe Mississippi State on Nov. 18.
Easiest Power 5 nonconference schedule
We have a repeat winner. For the second season in a row, Michigan has earned the “honor” of playing the nation’s cushiest nonconference schedule. The two-time defending Big Ten champion doesn’t face a single Power 5 opponent. This was also the case a year ago, marking the first time in 78 years the Wolverines didn’t play a nonconference game against a current Power 5 member or Notre Dame. Michigan opens this season with three straight home games against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green. It originally had a home-and-home series with UCLA set for 2022 and 2023, but canceled it in 2019 to guarantee at least seven home games each season.
The only team rivaling Michigan in this category is Georgia, which plays UT Martin, Ball State and UAB at home and closes the regular season against in-state rival Georgia Tech on the road. The Bulldogs were originally scheduled to play Oklahoma, but the SEC dictated that game be scrapped with the Sooners joining the league in 2024.
Toughest open to the season
West Virginia athletic director Wren Baker said this summer he wanted to see Neal Brown and the football program build some momentum as the Mountaineers are coming off back-to-back losing seasons. That’s going to be a challenge to start the season. West Virginia opens on the road against No. 8 Penn State, and after a home game against Duquesne, plays rival Pittsburgh at home and then starts Big 12 play against Texas Tech at home and TCU on the road, both preseason top-25 teams. Talk about a five-week gauntlet to open a season that is critical for Brown and the program.
Toughest close to the season
It’s always nice to have the reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, and USC is going to need Caleb Williams at his best in October and November. Four of the Trojans’ last six games are against preseason top-25 teams, as they face Notre Dame, Utah, Cal, Washington, Oregon and UCLA. Lincoln Riley’s Men of Troy will also play nine straight weeks without a break to end the season.
Cushiest open to the season
A toss-up here between Kentucky and Michigan. The Wildcats win in a photo finish with their first three games coming at home against Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Akron, with a road game against Vanderbilt to follow. Four of Kentucky’s five games in September are at home. The schedule bites back to end the season, as the Wildcats play three of their last four on the road, and the only home game in that stretch is Alabama.
The Wolverines, meanwhile, play four in a row at home to open the season: three nonconference “buy” games against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green before the Big Ten opener against Rutgers. Yawn.
Falcons taking flight
Air Force hasn’t received nearly the love it deserves under Troy Calhoun after posting at least 10 wins in each of its past three full seasons and winning three straight bowl games over teams from the Big 12, ACC and Pac-12. The Falcons’ 2023 schedule will be interesting, to say the least. They play three Friday games, and only once in the last six weeks of the season will the Falcons play a true home game. With Falcon Stadium undergoing renovations, the Nov. 4 game against Army will be played in Denver at Empower Field at Mile High.
Rocky road
Arkansas‘ road schedule is brutal. The Hogs, who played one of the toughest overall schedules in the country a year ago, play true road games against three preseason top-25 teams — LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama — and also travel to the Swamp to face Florida. Arkansas goes four straight weeks without playing a home game, starting with the Sept. 23 game at No. 7 LSU and ending with the Oct. 14 game at No. 6 Alabama. At some point, Sam Pittman has to be wondering what he did to the people putting together these backbreaking schedules.
Road of least resistance
As Luke Fickell takes over at Wisconsin, he inherits a road schedule that looks more than manageable. The only nonconference road game is at Washington State in Week 2, and the Cougars aren’t picked to be among the Pac-12’s elite this season. The Badgers avoid Michigan and Penn State altogether in 2023 and get Ohio State at home Oct. 28. It doesn’t hurt, either, that Ohio State faces Penn State the week before making the trip to Madison. There are only two road dates the last five weeks of the season — at Indiana and at Minnesota — and no back-to-back road games all season for the Badgers.
Oregon State also is in the conversation here. The Beavers’ only nonconference road game is at San Jose State to open the season. In the Pac-12, they’re on the road at Washington State, Cal, Arizona and Colorado, in addition to a tough one at Oregon to close the season Nov. 24.
Toughest three-week stretch
The criteria here are three games in three consecutive weeks with no byes. Rutgers, Syracuse and Florida could all make strong cases, but we’re going with Washington. The Pac-12 should be as strong as it has been in years with excellent quarterback play across the league. The Huskies have their own star quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., and he and his teammates will have their hands full in November. Washington plays at USC on Nov. 4, home against Utah the next week and then back on the road against Oregon State on Nov. 18. That three-game stretch is preceded by a road game against Stanford. That’s three Pac-12 road games in four weeks.
Must-see nonconference games
The caveat here is that to be considered, these games are played on campus, not at a neutral site:
• Florida at Utah, Aug. 31 (Thursday)
• Colorado at TCU, Sept. 2
• Texas at Alabama, Sept. 9
• Oregon at Texas Tech, Sept. 9
• Ole Miss at Tulane, Sept. 9
• Pittsburgh at West Virginia, Sept. 16
• Washington at Michigan State, Sept. 16
• Ohio State at Notre Dame, Sept. 23
• Notre Dame at Clemson, Nov. 4
• Clemson at South Carolina, Nov. 25
Going back-to-back
Colorado, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Utah and Virginia Tech are the only Power 5 teams that will play nonconference games against Power 5 opponents in back-to-back weeks. Colorado travels to TCU to open the season Sept. 2, then comes back home to face Nebraska in coach Deion Sanders’ Boulder debut on Sept. 9. Pitt plays Cincinnati at home Sept. 9, then travels to West Virginia the next week. Purdue plays at Virginia Tech on Sept. 9, then at home against Syracuse the next week. Utah opens the season with games against Florida at home Aug. 31 and Baylor on the road Sept. 9. Virginia Tech plays Purdue at home Sept. 9 and at Rutgers the next week.
Clash of cultures
The culture shock game of the year has to be Auburn traveling to Cal on Sept. 9, the first meeting ever between the teams. At Auburn, they’ve been known to roll trees with toilet paper after big wins. At Cal, they’ve been known to strip naked and climb trees to save them. It’s a 2,438-mile trip for the Tigers and only Auburn’s third regular-season game ever on the West Coast. The Bears are 9-1 at home in nonconference games under Justin Wilcox. The hardwoods will be watching.
Farewell to Bedlam
This could be it for Bedlam, at least for the foreseeable future, with Oklahoma moving to the SEC in 2024. Longtime rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State meet Nov. 11 in Norman, and neither side has seemed too interested in continuing the rivalry. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said last year that OU and Texas “took the money and ran” by joining the SEC and “took a lot of history out of college football with them.” With the Big 12’s new look this season, Oklahoma State’s schedule will be virtually Texas free. The Cowboys don’t face Baylor, TCU, Texas or Texas Tech (they do travel to Houston on Nov. 18).
No napping for the Vols
Which Power 5 teams could get tripped up at home by a Group of 5 team, a la Appalachian State winning at Texas A&M last season? One game to watch is UTSA at Tennessee on Sept. 23. The Vols have an away game with Florida the week before and a home date the week after with South Carolina, which torched Tennessee 63-38 a year ago and ruined the Vols’ playoff chances. UTSA brings back 15 starters, including record-setting quarterback Frank Harris, after going 11-3 and winning two straight Conference USA titles.
What a welcome
BYU, moving to the Big 12 from independent status, has a bye week Oct. 7 after facing Cincinnati at home, then plays seven conference games in seven weeks. The Cougars are the only Big 12 newcomers to play both Oklahoma and Texas this season. In that seven-game stretch are three road games in four weeks — TCU on Oct. 14, Texas on Oct. 28 and West Virginia on Nov. 4. And talk about frequent flier points: The Cougars make a “short” 1,258-mile trip to Austin, Texas, then travel nearly 2,000 miles the next week to Morgantown, West Virginia.
Loving the Lone Star State
Another Big 12 newcomer, Houston won’t leave Texas to play a game until the final weekend of October when the Cougars travel to Kansas State. Houston’s only other game outside the state is the regular-season finale against UCF on Nov. 25. Six of Houston’s first seven games are in the city of Houston.
Rhule on the road
In his first season at Nebraska, Matt Rhule and the Huskers will play their first two games on the road against Minnesota on Aug. 31 and Colorado on Sept. 9. Not counting the 2020 COVID-interrupted season, it’s the first time since 1995 the Huskers have opened the season with two true road games. For what it’s worth, that 1995 Nebraska team is widely considered to be one of the greatest in college football history. Those Huskers went 12-0, won their second straight national championship and had an average margin of victory of 38.7 points per game. Just saying.
Hartman’s ACC encore
Sam Hartman, one of the country’s highest-profile transfers this offseason after leaving Wake Forest for Notre Dame, will face familiar ACC foes Clemson, Duke, Louisville, NC State and Pittsburgh in 2023, not to mention his old team, the Demon Deacons, on Nov. 18 in South Bend. Hartman, the ACC’s all-time leader with 110 touchdown passes, finished 4-11 against those five ACC teams during his time at Wake Forest.
Conference chaos
There’s always that one weekend in conference play that shakes things up, provides some clarity for the rest of the season and maybe even produces a few surprises. Week 8 has definite possibilities:
• Tennessee at Alabama
• Ole Miss at Auburn
• Michigan at Michigan State
• Penn State at Ohio State
• Wisconsin at Illinois
• Utah at USC
• Clemson at Miami
• Texas Tech at BYU
• TCU at Kansas State
• Texas at Houston
They’re playing where?
Seeing Power 5 teams playing on the road at Group of 5 venues is always entertaining, especially when it’s Alabama traveling to South Florida for a Sept. 16 game. Some of the others: UCLA at San Diego State on Sept. 9, Ole Miss at Tulane on Sept. 9, Cal at North Texas on Sept. 2, Oregon State at San Jose State on Sept. 3, Oklahoma at Tulsa on Sept. 16, Miami at Temple on Sept. 23, NC State at UConn on Aug. 31 and Virginia Tech at Marshall on Sept. 23.
Power outages
Only seven Power 5 teams do not have a nonconference game against another Power 5 team or Notre Dame — Boston College, Houston, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon State, UCF and UCLA.
Powering up
Louisville, with Jeff Brohm returning to his alma mater as coach, will play three Power 5 schools (including Notre Dame) in the nonconference part of its schedule — at Indiana on Sept. 16, home against Notre Dame on Oct. 7 and home against in-state rival Kentucky on Nov. 25 to close the season. Colorado, Pittsburgh, Utah and West Virginia are the only other FBS schools playing 11 Power 5 opponents in 2023.
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Mark Schlabach
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who led the No. 1 Hoosiers to a perfect 13-0 record and their first Big Ten title since 1967, captured the 91st Heisman Trophy on Saturday night.
Mendoza beat out quarterbacks Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) and Julian Sayin (Ohio State) and running back Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) to take home the trophy during a ceremony in New York.
Mendoza, who played two seasons at California before joining the Hoosiers this season, completed 71.5% of his pass attempts for 2,980 yards with 39 total touchdowns.
He was only the second Heisman Trophy finalist from Indiana. Running back Anthony Thompson was runner-up to Houston quarterback Andre Ware in one of the closest votes in 1989.
With Mendoza, Pavia and Love expected to move on to the NFL after this season, who are the top returning Heisman Trophy candidates for 2026?
In compiling the list of potential candidates, I projected that quarterbacks John Mateer (Oklahoma), Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Dante Moore (Oregon); receivers Carnell Tate (Ohio State), Zachariah Branch (Georgia) and Makai Lemon (USC); and running back Emmett Johnson (Nebraska) will turn pro (along with the aforementioned finalists from this year).
Here is a look at some of the top potential contenders (in no particular order):
2025 stats: 80 catches, 1,086 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns
Smith’s highlight reel of acrobatic, one-handed catches continues to grow, and he arguably has been the best player in college football this season. He was the fastest Buckeyes player to reach career marks of 2,000 receiving yards (24 games), 100 catches (20) and 25 touchdown receptions (25).
2025 stats: 78.4% completion pct, 3,323 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
Sayin might have captured the Heisman Trophy this season if Ohio State’s offense hadn’t flopped in its 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game. In his first season as a starter, Sayin is on pace to break the NCAA single-season pass completion record of 77.4%, set by Oregon’s Bo Nix in 2023.
2025 stats: 70.7% completion pct, 2,691 passing yards, 442 rushing yards, 31 total touchdowns
In his first full season as Georgia’s starting quarterback, Stockton helped guide the Bulldogs to a 12-1 record and SEC title. His legs and right arm were a big reason the Bulldogs averaged 31.9 points, despite enduring myriad injuries on the offensive line. Stockton was at his best when the game was on the line — he completed 86% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and one interception in the fourth quarter against ranked opponents.
2025 stats: 84 receptions, 970 receiving yards, 7 receiving touchdowns
Toney’s teammates call him “Baby Jesus,” and the true freshman delivered in a big way in his first season with the No. 10 Hurricanes. He ranks sixth in the FBS with 84 catches and had 1,328 all-purpose yards. Toney even threw for two scores. Not bad for an 18-year-old who would be a senior in high school if he hadn’t reclassified to the class of 2025.
2025 stats: 61.4% completion pct, 2,942 passing yards, 32 total touchdowns
Even after all the hand-wringing about Manning being overrated at the start of the season, the former five-star recruit ended up putting together a good campaign, throwing for 2,942 yards with 24 touchdowns. The No. 13 Longhorns need to find some offensive linemen (he was sacked 23 times) and receivers to help him in 2026.
2025 stats: 65.5% completion pct, 3,016 passing yards, 24 total touchdowns
Ole Miss officials have submitted a waiver to the NCAA on Chambliss’ behalf for another season of eligibility. He played his first three seasons at Division II Ferris State before transferring to Ole Miss this year. He was named SEC Newcomer of the Year after taking over the starting job in the third game of the season.
2025 stats: 1,560 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns
A transfer from Louisiana-Monroe, Hardy led the FBS with 130 rushing yards per game and was No. 2 with 1,560 total rushing yards. He had eight 100-yard games for the Tigers, including a whopping 300-yard effort with three touchdowns in a 49-27 victory against Mississippi State on Nov. 15.
2025 stats: 61.8% completion pct, 2,932 passing yards, 466 rushing yards, 31 total touchdowns
Reed announced this week that he plans to stay at Texas A&M next season, which is great news for the No. 7 Aggies. He was a threat with the ball in his hands, throwing for 2,932 yards with 25 touchdowns and running for 466 yards with six scores. His decision-making needs to continue to improve, so he can cut down on his 10 interceptions.
2025 stats: 63.6% completion pct, 3,117 passing yards, 20 total touchdowns
There’s a reason new Bears coach Tosh Lupoi took a late-night flight to Hawai’i to make sure Sagapolutele was staying at Cal. He was only the second true freshman in FBS history to pass for 200 yards or more in each of his first 11 starts. In the Bears’ late-season upsets of then-No. 21 SMU and No. 15 Louisville, Sagapolutele passed for a combined 653 yards with six touchdowns and no picks.
2025 stats: 1,279 rushing yards, 20 touchdowns
After transferring from Missouri, Lacy helped the No. 6 Rebels win 11 games in the regular season for the first time. He ranks No. 2 in the FBS with 20 rushing touchdowns and piled up 1,279 yards on the ground. Will he follow former coach Lane Kiffin to LSU or remain with the Rebels in 2026?
2025 stats: 66.2% completion pct, 3,431 passing yards, 29 total touchdowns
If Maiava returns to the No. 16 Trojans for another season, he’ll probably flourish in Lincoln Riley’s offense. This year, he threw for 3,431 yards with 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He ranks No. 1 with a 91.2 total QBR. According to Pro Football Focus, he was second in the FBS with 26 big-time throws. (A big-time throw is defined as a high-difficulty, high-value pass.)
2025 stats: 1,035 rushing yards, 6 total touchdowns
Jackson became the fifth true freshman in OSU history to produce a 1,000-yard season, joining Robert Smith (1990), Maurice Clarett (2002), JK Dobbins (2017) and TreVeyon Henderson (2021). That’s good company. And, of course, he’d be the second Bo Jackson to collect a stiff-armed trophy.
2025 stats: 70.2% completion pct, 4,129 passing yards, 36 total touchdowns
Mestemaker is one of the best stories in college football. He didn’t start a single game in high school, then joined North Texas as a walk-on. This season, he led the FBS with 4,129 passing yards, helping him capture the Burlsworth Trophy as the top walk-on in the country. Will he join former Mean Green coach Eric Morris at Oklahoma State in 2026?
CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
2025 starts: 66.6% completion pct, 2,741 passing yards, 24 touchdowns
Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman entrusted Carr to lead his offense after a heated battle in preseason camp. The decision paid off, as Carr put together one of the best performances by a first-time starter in Notre Dame history. He threw for at least one touchdown in each of his first 12 starts, becoming the first Irish player to do that since Everett Golson in 2012-14. Carr’s 24 passing touchdowns are tied for the most in the first 12 starts by a Notre Dame player since 1966.
2025 stats: 70% completion pct, 2,850 passing yards, 595 rushing yards, 27 total touchdowns
Williams is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the FBS, and his ability to run and throw was on display in the Huskies’ 38-19 victory against Rutgers on Oct. 10. He became the first player in school history to pass for at least 400 yards (400) and run for at least 100 (136) in the same game. Williams was second on the team with 595 rushing yards.
Others to watch: Sam Leavitt, QB, TBA; Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn; Brendan Sorsby, QB, Cincinnati; Josh Hoover, QB, TCU; Darian Mensah, QB, Duke; Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia; LJ Martin, RB, BYU; Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU; LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina; Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
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Adam Rittenberg
Maryland quarterback Malik Washington, who set the team’s freshman passing record this fall, will return to the Terrapins for the 2026 season.
Washington set Maryland freshman records for passing yards (2,963) and completions (273) this season, while connecting on 17 touchdown passes. He reached 200 passing yards in all but one game and finished as just the second Big Ten freshman since 1996 to record at least 2,500 passing yards and at least 300 rushing yards.
“Representing this team, this area, means so much to me and my family,” Washington said in a statement Saturday. “This is home and we’re going to continue keeping the best athletes from this area here with the Terps. I believe in everyone in our facility and I know we’re building something that our fans will be excited about for years to come.”
Washington, the nation’s No. 134 recruit in the 2025 class, grew up in Severn, Maryland, about 30 miles from Maryland’s campus. Despite a 4-8 record that included only one Big Ten win, Maryland announced that coach Mike Locksley, who recruited Washington, would return in 2026. Locksley will enter his eighth season as Maryland’s coach.
“Malik is a Terp through and through and I’m thrilled he’s coming back to lead this football team,” Locksley said in a statement. “He means so much to this area and this area means so much to him. What we saw from Malik this past season is only the tip of the iceberg. He has such a bright future and he’s already started putting the work in towards the 2026 season.”
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