Tim Cook arrives at Sun Valley’s Allen & Company meeting in Sun Valley, Idaho.
David A. Grogan | CNBC
Apple is expected to post its third consecutive quarterly revenue decline when it reports earnings after the bell Thursday. Wall Street expects $81.7 billion in sales, which would be down about 2.3% from last year.
Apple’s stock is up over 51% so far in 2023, hitting all-time highs. Investors see it as a safe haven with strong cash flow, despite worries about slowing demand for consumer goods, including PCs and smartphones.
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Analysts will also want to hear about how the current quarter, which ends in September, is shaking out. Apple hasn’t given guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty, but it provides investors with some data points that they can use to determine whether Apple sees overall sales growing or shrinking.
The company’s forecast will be more important. It may give clues as to whether global economies are set up for a “soft landing” after two years of interest rate hikes.
The June period is typically Apple’s slowest quarter of the year, while its fourth fiscal quarter often captures back-to-school laptop spending, a few days of new iPhone model sales — which usually come out in September — and shows Apple’s momentum heading into the holiday season.
“What will matter most will be management’s September quarter,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring in July, adding that he expects Apple to guide to year-over-year revenue growth again.
Emerging markets and China
Some analysts are eager to see Apple give data points on India sales. Apple CEO Tim Cook traveled to the country in April and spoke about hopes for significant growth in the region. India became one of Apple’s top five iPhone markets during the quarter, according to analyst estimates.
“On the call, we look for additional details on its expansion in India, including its retail and manufacturing presence,” D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote this week.
But Apple’s older growth driver, China, is likely to be closely watched as well. Greater China — including Hong Kong and Taiwan — is Apple’s third-largest sales region, and it has reported two straight quarters of revenue decline, even as the region reopened after years of strict Covid lockdowns.
“In our conversations, most investors feel that a soft China could pose a risk to the numbers and further commentary, but we feel that Apple’s position in China is on a solid footing and that the company is likely to see only a small if any decline in its iPhone sales,” wrote Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar.
Kumar said if China ends up being weak, it could be offset by strong sales momentum in India.
Apple mainly manufactures in China and investors will want to hear that the company has overcome many of the supply chain snags that have hampered sales over the past two years. If Apple stockpiled parts and has enough to make what it needs to produce, it could help margins, analysts say.
Services growth and A.I. acceleration
Apple’s profitable services division includes monthly subscriptions such as Apple Music, warranties under AppleCare, fees from the App Store, advertising revenue from search licensing agreements with Google, payments from Apple Pay and other products.
Wall Street likes to see Apple’s services business grow regularly and smoothly, because the margins on services are so much higher than when Apple sells hardware. In particular, many analysts want to see services reaccelerate after a few quarters of weak growth because of lagging App Store software sales.
Apple suggested a 5% year-over-year increase in services, and FactSet’s estimates more than $20.7 billion in revenue. But analysts will want to see Apple signal more growth than that.
“For the Services business, we expect year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate from the +5% level expected in [fiscal third quarter,] with our checks suggesting online advertising has improved,” Deutsche Bank analyst Sidney Ho wrote.
Analysts will also likely ask about artificial intelligence, given the industrywide obsession with the technology and a recent Bloomberg report that Apple is developing a ChatGPT-like AI model internally. Don’t expect Apple to gush about what it’s working on internally, though.
“With the official intro of Vision Pro, we expect Apple’s updated comments on its AI aspirations to be a focus (albeit likely very high-level),” wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers.
Estimates
Apple reports its results by product line, which can give investors a look into which businesses are thriving and which ones are in a down cycle.
IPhone, iPad and Mac sales are all expected to be down on an annual basis, with iPad sales projected to drop nearly 11%, according to FactSet estimates. Wearables, the product category with headphones and Apple Watch — and what will likely be the reporting category for Vision Pro when it goes on sale — is projected to decline less than 1%.
However, analysts expect Apple’s services business to grow 5.2% on an annual basis, which would be a bright spot for the report.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, per FactSet estimates:
Revenue: $81.7 billion
EPS: $1.19 per share
Here’s what to expect from the company’s product lines, per FactSet estimates:
Super Micro Computer CEO Charles Liang at the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 5, 2024.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro Computer gave optimistic commentary for its fiscal 2026 and delayed annual report that overshadowed its slashed fiscal 2025 revenue guidance in Tuesday’s preliminary second-quarter results.
CEO Charles Liang said he is “confident” that the company will file its delayed annual report by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Feb. 25 deadline. The company also said it expects to hit $40 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026. Analysts polled by LSEG expected $30 billion in revenue for the period.
Shares of Super Micro were up as much as 10% in extended trading.
For the near term, however, the company slashed its guidance for fiscal 2025 revenue. The company said it expects revenues to range between $23.5 billion to $25 billion for fiscal 2025. That was down from a previous forecast of $26 billion and $30 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected revenues of $24.9 billion for the year.
The company also said it expects to report net sales between $5.6 billion and $5.7 billion for the quarter that ended Dec. 31. Wall Street expected $5.89 billion, according to analysts polled by LSEG. The company also offered weaker-than-expected guidance for the current period.
Super Micro also said that it “continues to work diligently” to meet the deadline to file its delayed fiscal 2024 annual and fiscal 2025 first and second quarter reports as it faces the possibility of a Nasdaq delisting.
Shares of the company, known for its servers powered with Nvidia graphics processing chips, have been on a rollercoaster ride since Hindenburg Research revealed a short position in the stock and the company delayed releasing its annual report in August. The company’s auditor quit in October, citing governance issues, and Super Micro’s drop in share price spurred the possibility of a delisting from the Nasdaq exchange.
Super Micro’s prime position in the artificial intelligence world catapulted the stock to new heights as ChatGPT’s 2022 debut set off a craze for AI infrastructure. Recent earnings reports and commentary suggest that megacaps Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft plan to invest as much as $320 billion into AI projects this year.
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk joins U.S. President Donald Trump during an executive order signing in the Oval Office at the White House on Feb. 11, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Tesla shares dropped 6% on Tuesday after Chinese rival BYD announced plans to develop autonomous vehicle technology with DeepSeek, and said it would offer its Autopilot-like system in nearly all of its new cars, adding to fears that Elon Musk’s company is falling behind the competition.
There’s also growing concerns surrounding Musk’s distractions outside of Tesla, after news surfaced that the world’s richest person is offering to lead an investor group in purchasing OpenAI, while he steps up his work with President Donald Trump’s White House.
Tesla’s stock price has slid for five straight days, falling close to 17% over that stretch to $328.50, and wiping out over $200 billion in market cap.
BYD, which has emerged as Tesla’s fiercest rival on the world stage, said on Monday that at least 21 of its new model vehicles will come equipped with its partially automated driving systems that include features for automatic parking and navigating on highways.
Tesla doesn’t yet offer a robotaxi and its EVs currently require a human driver to remain at the wheel, ready to steer or brake at any time. On Tesla’s earnings call last month, Musk said the company is aiming to launch “Unsupervised Full Self-Driving,” and a driverless rideshare service in Austin, Texas, in June. Alphabet’s Waymo already operates a robotaxi service in Austin as well as in parts of Phoenix, San Francisco.
“In our view, competition between Waymo, Tesla and a host of Chinese players is a key driver on the path to commercialization” of robotaxis,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients after the BYD announcement. The firm recommends buying the stock and has a price target of $430.
Waymo said on Tuesday that it added 10 square miles of coverage to its robotaxi service in Los Angeles.
In a report on Tuesday, Oppenheimer analysts wrote that the “autonomy competition may limit [Tesla] profitability.” Even if Tesla meets its June 2025 timeline for driverless cars in Texas, the company is “one of several autonomous technology providers, suggesting competition on price and performance,” they wrote.
In addition to running Tesla, Musk is CEO of SpaceX, owns social media company X and is head of artificial intelligence startup xAI. He’s also spending significant time these days in Washington, D.C., running the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) as a special government employee, aiming to slash federal spending, personnel, regulations and even entire agencies.
Many projects, many distractions
Investors already concerned about Musk’s hefty commitments beyond his trillion-dollar EV company have more reason for trepidation after events that unfolded on Monday. Musk’s attorney, Marc Toberoff, confirmed to CNBC that Musk was leading a consortium of investors in a $97.4 billion bid for OpenAI.
Musk was among the founders of OpenAI in 2015, when the AI startup was created as a nonprofit research lab. Musk sought to have Tesla acquire OpenAI, and he later departed the organization’s board.
OpenAI has since commercialized numerous products, most notably ChatGPT. Co-founder and CEO Sam Altman is seeking to restructure OpenAI as a for-profit entity. Musk has sued OpenAI to prevent that transition, and started xAI as a direct competitor.
The Oppenheimer analysts wrote that, “While [Tesla] has shifted focus to being a Physical AI play, we view Elon Musk’s bid for Open AI as a distraction from [Tesla’s] challenges.”
Altman told employees in a memo on Tuesday that OpenAI’s board hasn’t received an official offer from Musk and reminded staffers that “Elon has a history of making claims that don’t hold up.”
Later on Tuesday, Toberoff said in a statement that he emailed the bid for OpenAI on behalf of the Musk-led consortium a day earlier to OpenAI’s outside counsel William Savitt and Sarah Eddy “for transmission to their client.” Toberoff said the bid was “in the form of a detailed four-page letter” and was addressed to OpenAI’s board.
“Whether Sam Altman chose to provide or withhold this from OpenAI’s other Board members is outside of our control,” he wrote.
Oppenheimer’s analysts also highlighted the added risks associated with Musk’s extensive work with the Trump administration.
While Musk’s behavior “has fans in certain circles,” his public life “risks alienating consumers and employees as the Trump administration tests the limits of its power,” they wrote. For example, they referenced recent vehicle registration data that showed steep year-over-year declines in California and across several European markets.
Tesla and Musk didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Amazon is opening a beauty and health products store in Milan, Italy, marking the company’s latest brick-and-mortar experiment.
The store is located in the city center of Milan, and features a range of beauty and personal care items, as well as nonprescription drugs, Amazon said in a blog post. The first store, which is called Amazon Parafarmacia & Beauty, will open its doors to the public on Wednesday.
The store will be stocked with products from beauty and skin-care brands including La Roche-Posay, Eucerin and Vichy. There are also “Derma-bars,” where shoppers can get a “complimentary digital skin analysis” of their skin type and condition, and receive product recommendations.
Amazon says the store includes a section staffed by on-site pharmacists where shoppers can purchase “non-prescription, over-the-counter medications.”
By launching its first “parapharmacy,” the e-commerce giant is hoping to parlay its online success in the beauty and personal care category into sales in the physical world. Beauty and personal care items, which include everything from hairspray and cosmetics to deodorants and Q-tips, make up one of the fastest-growing verticals on Amazon.
The company began offering health and beauty products in 2000, but its selection was initially limited to most mass-market brands. It has since added more luxury brands such as Estée Lauder and La Mer.
The new store format also marks Amazon’s latest experiment in physical retail. The company opened and then shutteredall of its bookstores, pop-up shops, four-star stores and apparel stores. It has also shrunk its footprint of Amazon Go convenience stores, shutting down a storefront in Woodland Hills, California, last month. In grocery, Amazon’s portfolio includes Whole Foods supermarkets and its own chain of Fresh stores.