Club holding Caterpillar (CAT) delivered another strong quarter before the opening bell Tuesday, sparking a much-deserved rally of more than 8% to an all-time high above $287 per share. Revenue in the second quarter increased 22% year over year to $17.32 billion, exceeding estimates of $16.49 billion, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 75% to $5.55, well ahead of estimates of $4.58. Profit margin performance was well ahead of expectations, with operating income beating across all of the company’s product segments. CAT 5Y mountain Caterpillar 5-year performance Bottom line Strong headline results at Caterpillar were met with a very bullish conference call — giving shares another jolt to the upside, thanks to positive commentary on the operating environment and growth drivers for the remainder of the year. In addition to strong quarterly sales, Caterpillar’s backlog increased to $30.7 billion. That represents a $300 million quarter-over-quarter gain and a $2.2 billion year-over-year surge. Despite strong results in the first quarter, shares sold off on concerns that the backlog, which was flat versus the fourth quarter, indicating that the strongest demand was in the rearview mirror. At the time, we never bought into that notion because there was too much infrastructure spending coming down the pipe. In Tuesday’s results, we’re starting to see that money flow through to the backlog. Indeed, management told us as much on the call that they “expect continued growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects.” How fast those orders come in will depend on the timeline to obtain permits, but the team does expect the order momentum to “last for some time.” Combined with commentary around dealer inventories and end market dynamics, this infrastructure potential gives us confidence in sustained demand through the end of the year and into 2024. While forward guidance wasn’t expressly given, management made clear that business has improved over the past three months, with full-year results tracking above where consensus estimates had been coming into the print. This was as good of a quarter as we could have hoped for, with plenty of conviction from management for continued momentum. That said, we told investors during Tuesday’s Morning Meeting that conviction always takes a back seat to discipline. With that view in mind, if not restricted, we would be trimming 25 shares, or a little over 7% of our position, due to the strong stock move higher. In line with that view, we’re maintaining our 2 rating , however, raising our price target to $300 per share, up from $285. Companywide Q2 results All three of Caterpillar’s physical product segments, as indicated in the table above, reported strong year-over-year revenue growth that beat estimates. While Financial Products sales missed the mark, lower credit loss provisions — an estimate on loans that won’t get repaid — helped segment operating income outpace expectations. Construction Industries sales in Q2 rose 19% to $7.15 billion. North America was up thanks to an increase in both selling prices and sales volume. On the call, management called out strong demand in both North American residential and nonresidential construction. Latin America saw a decline in sales volume, however, this was partially offset by an increase in prices. In Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, an increase in prices was compounded by higher sales volumes. Sales in Asia/Pacific were largely flat versus the year-ago period. China remains weak and that’s not expected to change much in the near term. Fortunately, China represents less than 5% of sales with weakness being more than offset by strong demand elsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region. Resource Industries sales of $3.56 billion increased by 20%. Segment sales benefited from both higher prices and an increase in sales volume, two factors that also aided segment operating income performance despite an increase in material costs. Within the segment, management expects “healthy mining demand to continue as commodity prices remain above investment thresholds.” Energy & Transportation sales increased 27% to $7.22 billion. Backlog commentary Management explained on the call that backlog levels are a function of demand (which adds to the backlog), as well as the company’s production rates and ability to ship out inventory (which decreases the backlog). With the supply chain improving and Caterpillar’s ability to more quickly turnover orders, we may see that robust backlog as of the end of Q2 decline in future quarters. If that were to occur, a declining backlog would not necessaliry be viewed negatively should it prove to be a function of shorter lead times thanks to increased product availability. Dealer inventories, another forward-looking metric to monitor, increased by about $600 million on a sequential basis and provided a $1 billion benefit to total sales. Caterpillar dealers are independent businesses and they’re not going to increase inventory levels if they aren’t seeing strong demand on the near-term horizon. Guidance As mentioned earlier in the bottom line , Caterpillar didn’t provide exact guidance numbers for every line item. But, we did get positive qualitative comments on the path ahead. The team stated plainly that they now expect their full-year 2023 to be better than they thought just three months ago. Starting with the third quarter, management noted that sales are expected to be higher on an annual basis but lower on a sequential basis (which is typical given seasonal trends). The Street was modeling a 6.8% annual increase and a 7.9% sequential decrease versus the topline results we got Tuesday (or a 2.9% sequential decline versus estimates coming into the print). How exactly that matches up versus estimates is hard to say but we would bet that it’s at least as good as analysts were looking for, probably a bit better. The adjusted operating profit margin for the third quarter is expected to have a similar dynamic, expansion versus the year-ago period and contraction on a sequential basis. That commentary is also in line with Street models coming into the print. On a full-year basis, management expects Caterpillar’s operating profit margin to “be close to the top end of our target range.” The team also noted that second-half sales will be higher versus the second half of 2022. Coming into the release, the Street had been modeling second-half sales of about $33.4 billion. In the first two quarters, Caterpillar generated sales of about $33.2 billion. Add those up and we get a blended full-year sales estimate of $66.4 billion. According to the target ranges provided by the company, we should be looking for an adjusted operating profit margin of about 19%, which if achieved would be ahead of the 18% margin the Street is currently expecting. However, that would be below the 21% in Q2. As for full-year cash flow, the team expects Machinery, Energy & Transportation (ME & T) to be “around the top” of their $4 billion to $8 billion range. That’s highly positive given that management intends to “return substantially all” ME & T free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and repurchases over time. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CAT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . 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A Caterpillar (Cat) Excavator is seen working at a construction site near the New York Harbor in Brooklyn, New York, March 4, 2021.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Club holding Caterpillar (CAT) delivered another strong quarter before the opening bell Tuesday, sparking a much-deserved rally of more than 8% to an all-time high above $287 per share.
On today’s fleet-focused episode of Quick Charge, we talk about a hot topic in today’s trucking industry called, “the messy middle,” explore some of the ways legacy truck brands are working to reduce fuel consumption and increase freight efficiency. PLUS: we’ve got ReVolt Motors’ CEO and founder Gus Gardner on-hand to tell us why he thinks his solution is better.
You know, for some people.
We’ve also got a look at the Kenworth Supertruck 2 concept truck, revisit the Revoy hybrid tandem trailer, and even plug a great article by CCJ’s Jeff Seger, who is asking some great questions over there. All this and more – enjoy!
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
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Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
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March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
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However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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