It would be ideal if every MLB team were so desperate to win that they would do whatever it takes. But in an industry with so many variables from team to team — roster composition, payroll commitment, market size, owner ambition, fan rabidity and history — some organizations are willing to go further and do more than others.

The New York Mets paid more in luxury taxes last season ($97 million) than the Pittsburgh Pirates have dedicated to payroll this season, and Pittsburgh could attempt to reduce salary commitments even further at this year’s trade deadline.

Some teams are more desperate than others. As we near the July 31 deadline, we present the teams most desperate to make a deal.

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New York played in the World Series last year, and in a lot of markets, that might be enough to satisfy a fan base. But not with the Yankees, whose most faithful fans judge them under the George Steinbrenner Doctrine: If you don’t win the World Series, you’ve had a bad year. This is a constant.

The Yankees could return to where they were last October. The 33-year-old Aaron Judge, one of the most dynamic hitters ever, is having another historic season. New York wants to take advantage of that — particularly because the American League is wide open with as many as seven or eight AL teams having reasonable paths to the World Series.

But the Yankees still have distinct holes. They badly need an upgrade at third base, which someone like Eugenio Suarez could fill. Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt suffered season-ending elbow injuries, leaving a need for another experienced starting pitcher. Their bullpen also needs help in the sixth and seventh innings.

After the departure of Juan Soto, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman are probably under more pressure to do something this season than any of their peers. What else is new?

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It’s remarkable how similar this version of the Phillies is to the teams that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski constructed in Detroit, with Philadelphia’s strong starting pitching (Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez playing the roles of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) and a lineup of sluggers (Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder).

The major question that hangs over this Philadelphia team, as was the case with those Tigers teams, is about the bullpen: Is there enough depth and power? For the Phillies, that is complicated by the situation with lefty Jose Alvarado, who will return in August from his 80-game suspension under the PED policy but not be eligible for the postseason.

The Phillies paid heavily for free agent reliever David Robertson, giving him the equivalent of a $16 million salary for the rest of the regular season, but they could use another reliever who is adept at shutting down high-end right-handed hitters in the postseason.

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On the days Tarik Skubal pitches, the Tigers could be the best team in baseball; it’s possible that in the postseason, he could be his generation’s version of Orel Hershiser or Madison Bumgarner, propelling his team through round after round of playoffs to the World Series.

But the Tigers might have Skubal for only the rest of this year and next season, before he, advised by his agent Scott Boras, heads into free agency and becomes maybe the first $400 million pitcher in history.

Now is the time for Detroit to make a push for its first championship in more than four decades. And for Scott Harris, the team’s president of baseball operations, that means adding a couple of high-impact relievers capable of generating a lot of swing-and-misses.

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The Mariners showed they are serious about making moves before this deadline with Thursday’s trade for first baseman Josh Naylor.

The last time the Mariners won a playoff series, Ichiro Suzuki — who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend — was a rookie. Edgar Martinez was a 38-year-old designated hitter, and Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia were the staff aces. You get the point: It has been a really long time since the Mariners have had postseason success, and the team has never reached the World Series.

An opportunity seems to be developing for Seattle. The talented rotation, hammered by injuries in the first months of this season, could be whole for the stretch run. Cal Raleigh is having the greatest season by a catcher, contending with Judge for the AL MVP Award. Julio Rodriguez has generally been a strong second-half player.

Even ownership seems inspired: After a winter in which the Mariners spent almost nothing to upgrade the roster, other teams report that Seattle could absorb money in trades before the deadline.

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5. New York Mets

Owner Steve Cohen doesn’t sport the highest payroll this year — the Dodgers’ Mark Walter is wearing that distinction — but the Mets are well over the luxury tax threshold again, in the first season after signing Juan Soto. Cohen has made it clear that generally, he will do what it takes to land the club’s first championship trophy since 1986.

But that does not include preventing David Stearns, the Mets’ respected president of baseball operations, from doing what he does best — making subtle and effective deals at the trade deadline. Rival execs expect that Stearns will work along the same lines he did last year — finding trades that improve the team’s depth without pillaging its growing farm system. That could mean adding a starting pitcher capable of starting Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series, as well as bullpen depth.

Cohen is experiencing the impact of overseeing a front office that made an impetuous win-now trade at the 2021 deadline, when the Mets swapped a minor leaguer named Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez. That clearly didn’t pan out for them. Cohen is desperate to win, but within the prescribed guardrails.

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Last winter, the Padres had to live with the knowledge that they were probably the best team other than the Dodgers and that they came within a win of knocking out L.A. There is a lot about San Diego’s 2025 roster to like: Manny Machado clearly responds to a big stage, and the bullpen could be the most dominant at a time of year when relief corps often decide championships.

However, as Padres general manager A.J. Preller navigates this trade deadline in the hopes of living out late owner Peter Seidler’s dream of winning San Diego’s first World Series title, he has a relatively thin, aging, top-heavy roster with a lot of significant payroll obligations. This is why the Padres are considering trading Dylan Cease, who is potentially the highest-impact starter available on the market. Preller could move Cease to fill other roster needs, current and future ones, and then deal for a cheaper veteran starter to replace him.

“He’ll have to rob Peter to pay Paul,” one of Preller’s peers said.

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Hope has emerged after the team’s all-in, $500 million signing of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with the Blue Jays taking the lead in the AL East.

Toronto’s rotation is comprised of an older group — 34-year-old Kevin Gausman, 36-year-old Chris Bassitt, 40-year-old Max Scherzer and 31-year-old Jose Berrios. Without a clear favorite in the AL, Toronto could break through for its first title since the Jays went back-to-back in 1992-93 — and in just the second season since the club’s expensive renovations of Rogers Centre were completed. When Alex Anthopoulos led the front office a decade ago, he made an all-in push to get the Jays back into the playoffs, adding players like David Price because he believed this was the right time for them to take their shot — and they came very close to getting back to the World Series.

Reportedly, Mark Shapiro — the team’s incoming president at the time — did not approve of Anthopoulos’s strategy. Now, Shapiro’s Blue Jays are in a similar situation in 2025 to where they were under Anthopoulos: Will they wheel and deal aggressively before the deadline, or will they be conservative?

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The Dodgers won the World Series in 2024, after taking the title in the shortened season of 2020. So, if they don’t win a championship this year, it’s not as if a bunch of people are getting fired and the roster will be jettisoned. But winning can be intoxicating, especially when the lineup and rotation are loaded with stars: The Dodgers can envision a postseason in which a starting staff of Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could propel the team to a second consecutive title.

But the Dodgers’ bullpen — heavily worked in the first months of this season because of injuries to the rotation — is in tatters due to bullpen injuries. Will the Dodgers’ push to become the first team to repeat as champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees drive them to swap valuable prospects for needed bullpen help before the deadline? We’re about to find out.

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This is a team very well-suited for the postseason: The Cubs are a strong defensive team; they have a deep lineup around Kyle Tucker, in what might be Tucker’s only season in Chicago; and they put the ball in play.

They’ve got a good farm system, as well as an experienced president of baseball operations in Jed Hoyer. He was part of championships in Boston in 2004 and 2007 and was the Cubs’ general manager for their 2016 title. He and Theo Epstein made the Nomar Garciaparra deal at the trade deadline in 2004, in advance of Boston’s breakthrough title in 2004, and the all-in trade for Aroldis Chapman on the way to the Cubs’ first World Series win in 108 years in 2016.

But the X factor for Chicago in recent years is whether ownership operates with the same desperation — in the way that Astros owner Jim Crane did when he pushed through a Justin Verlander trade for Houston in August 2017.

This seems to be a good time for the Cubs to be desperate, to do anything to win another championship. Will a title be a priority for owner Tom Ricketts?

The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31.

Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?

Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.

More: Top 50 trade candidates | Passan’s deadline preview

Jump to: Trending names | Completed deals | Latest intel

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MLB trade deadline trending names

1. Eugenio Suarez: The Arizona Diamondbacks star is No. 1 in our updated MLB trade deadline candidate rankings and could be the most impactful player to move this month. On pace to hit more than 50 home runs, the 2025 All-Star is on the wish list of every contender in need of third-base help.

2. Dylan Cease: The idea of Cease as a possible trade deadline candidate adds an intriguing name to this year’s starting pitching options. A free agent after the season, the right-hander is one of the game’s best strikeout artists and would be moved by the Padres only in return for major league help.

3. Jhoan Duran: This deadline is suddenly teeming with high-end relievers who will at the very least be in the rumor mill during the coming days. If the Minnesota Twins opt to move their closer — and his devastating splinker — Duran might be the best of the bunch.

Completed deal tracker

Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor

The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi are headed back to the Arizona Diamondbacks from the Seattle Mariners for first baseman Josh Naylor, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grades »

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MLB trade deadline buzz

July 24 updates

Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers

July 23 updates

Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.

The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo

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A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney

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How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers

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Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.

The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez

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July 22 updates

An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney

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Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney

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Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney

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Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers

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How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.

Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney

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What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.

But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.

It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez

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Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers

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Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.

But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney

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Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers

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Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.

The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez

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Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney

Last we saw the SEC on the gridiron, it was underachieving dramatically.

Well, sort of. SEC teams went 8-7 in bowl/playoff season, falling short against the spread by only 1.6 points per game (which is to say that the spreads were pretty accurate on average). But they underachieved by more than that against Big Ten teams, and for the second straight season — gasp! — an SEC team failed to win the national title. The league still comfortably had the best average SP+ rating in the nation thanks primarily to the small number of genuinely bad teams, but it certainly didn’t finish the 2024 season in a great mood.

With the Big Ten’s Penn State and Ohio State, Notre Dame, and the ACC’s Clemson all looking at potential top-5 hype, there’s a decent chance that the SEC’s title-free run reaches three years. But try to hold back your sympathy tears — the league still has at least three of the most talented teams in the nation and the largest selection of upper-middle-class teams with dreams of 10-2 records and playoff at-large bids. In Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers, DJ Lagway, Marcel Reed and maybe Austin Simmons, it has the most fascinating set of young quarterbacks in the sport. It has the most under-pressure Alabama head coach in a generation. It has Diego Damn Pavia. And if last year is any indication, it might have a few more shocking, playoff-turning upsets too.

This league never lacks for talent, grievance or storylines. I don’t see why that would change in 2025. Let’s preview the SEC!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly has been previewing another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC, Indie/Pac-12, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten previews.

2024 recap

The 2024 SEC race was a perfect battle of ceiling versus floor. Texas and Georgia had the high floors, losing only to SP+ top-10 teams and grinding out wins, often by margins smaller than expected. (Texas underachieved against SP+ projections in seven of its last 10 games, Georgia in four of its last six.) Alabama and Ole Miss, meanwhile, put together some of the most impressive single-game performances of the season — Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide beat Missouri 34-0 and LSU 42-13 in back-to-back weeks, while Ole Miss pummeled South Carolina 27-3 and became the first team since 2019 LSU to beat Georgia by more than 17 points (28-10).

That ridiculously high ceiling is why Bama and Ole Miss finished higher than Texas and Georgia in the final SP+ rankings. But both missed the College Football Playoff because they were also capable of losing to 4-8 Kentucky, 6-7 Oklahoma and 7-6 Vanderbilt. Granted, the latter two were statistically unlikely defeats — Ole Miss had a 76% postgame win expectancy* for its 20-17 loss to Kentucky, while Bama was at 99% for its (glorious) 40-35 loss to Vandy — but they happened.

(* Postgame win expectancy looks at all the predictive stats that a given game produces — the things that get fed into the SP+ ratings themselves — tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.)

Elsewhere, Tennessee rode brilliant defense to a CFP bid, and other hopefuls South Carolina (lost three of four early in the season), LSU (lost three in a row), Texas A&M (lost four of five to end it) and Missouri (a 3-3 midseason stretch) looked the part at times but fell short because of funks.

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Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

Only the Big 12 has a better returning production average than the SEC, which, in a universe with (legally) well-paid players, is something you would probably expect. The Big 12 ended up with the advantage because of its huge number of strong returning QBs — who carry significant weight in the returning production formula — but the SEC has the highest average of both returning starts and incoming FBS starts. This is going to be an awfully seasoned league in 2025.

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2025 projections

Of the five teams that finished in the SP+ top 10 last season, four rank 81st or worse in returning production, but the fifth, Bama, ranks in the top 30. That is by far the cleanest, easiest way to explain why the Crimson Tide start out on top here. Of course, it’s looking as if Texas is likely to start out No. 1 in the preseason polls, but because there’s no “Arch Manning is about to take The Leap” factor in these projections, the Horns are merely top-5.

Nationally, there are eight teams projected within a touchdown of the No. 1 ranking in SP+, and the SEC has only three of them. (The Big Ten also has three, while Clemson and Notre Dame are also involved.) That indeed means the SEC doesn’t exactly have overwhelming odds of producing a national champion. But as I told SEC fans when the league was winning titles nearly every season, that’s not the greatest measure of league strength. Alabama winning six titles with the best coach of all time didn’t exactly say much about how good Mississippi State or South Carolina was, right? But while the SEC has let its title grip slip, the simple fact that it has 10 of the projected top 17 teams (and 12 of the top 25) drops some pretty clear hints regarding which conference has the best overall depth. (I talked more about the effects of that depth in this piece.)

I always gush about how wide open and unpredictable the Big 12 is, and justifiably so, but “No one has a better than 1-in-6 chance of winning the conference title, and 10 teams have at least a 1-in-20 chance” is pretty dang wide open and unpredictable! If Texas’ Manning is as good as people expect, then the Longhorns’ odds obviously get a big bump, but on paper this race could go about 100 ways.

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10 best games of 2025

Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two of the biggest nonconference games of 2025 — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.

Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). I have so many questions about each of these four teams, and I’m so happy that they’ve basically paired off with each other to help answer them. Toss in Alabama at Florida State in between the noon ET kickoff in Columbus and the evening kickoff in Clemson and you’ve got yourself a solid SEC headliner for each time slot on the first Saturday of the season.

Georgia at Tennessee (Sept. 13). The Bulldogs and Volunteers meet in September for the first time since 2018. Good. I like my UGA-Tennessee games early, when they can spark the largest possible existential crises.

Alabama at Georgia (Sept. 27). A rematch of the second-best game of 2024*. Aside from Ohio State-Michigan, no game did a better job of reminding us that huge college football games will still be huge and delightful even if the national title stakes are dampened by a bigger playoff.

(* Bama gets a rematch of the best game of 2024 the next week when Vandy comes to town.)

LSU at Ole Miss (Sept. 27). Is it too late to redraw the schedules? Between the Bama-Georgia and Oregon-Penn State main events and an undercard of LSU-Ole Miss, Indiana-Iowa, TCU-Arizona State and USC-Illinois (and, on top of everything else, South Dakota at North Dakota State), Week 5 might actually be too big! Goodness.

Texas at Florida (Oct. 4). Texas benefited from a relatively easy slate (relatively speaking) in 2024, with just three regular-season opponents finishing in the SP+ top 20. But if Florida and Oklahoma improve as projected this fall, the Horns are looking at five such games, only one of which is in Austin. That’s the opposite of easy.

Ole Miss at Georgia (Oct. 18). Ole Miss might have enjoyed the single best performance of the regular season in last year’s 28-10 walloping of the Dawgs. That the Rebels turned right around and lost to Florida, eventually eliminating them from CFP contention, has to be one of the biggest on-field regrets of the last 50 years in Oxford.

Alabama at South Carolina (Oct. 25). South Carolina began turning its season around with a near-comeback win over Bama in 2024. This will be the Gamecocks’ third straight game against a projected top-20 team, so the season might have already gone in a couple different directions by the time Bama gets to town.

LSU at Alabama (Nov. 8). Bama crushed LSU in Baton Rouge last season, then pulled an Ole Miss and fell victim to a devastating upset two weeks later. Considering the expectations and pressure both of these teams are dealing with, this game could have playoff stakes and/or hot seat stakes. Or both?

Texas at Georgia (Nov. 15). Georgia was the only SEC hurdle Texas couldn’t clear last season. There’s obviously a chance this will be the first of two UGA-UT matchups in a four-week span.

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Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Head coach: Kalen DeBoer (second year, 9-4 overall)

2025 projection: Second in SP+, 9.8 average wins (6.0 in the SEC)

Heading into Week 13 last year, Alabama was chugging right along. Kalen DeBoer’s first Crimson Tide team was 8-2, second in SP+ and, despite losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, seventh in the CFP rankings. And then, almost overnight, the offense vanished.

Alabama offense, first 10 games: 39.5 points per game, 6.8 yards per play, 1.7% turnover rate, 8.3 yards per dropback

Alabama offense, last 3 games: 14.7 points per game, 4.8 yards per play, 5.1% turnover rate, 6.0 yards per dropback

The pairing of DeBoer with quarterback Jalen Milroe seemed awkward from the start, simply because Milroe was the polar opposite of Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. — with whom DeBoer’s Huskies reached the national title game in 2023 — in all ways good (far more mobile and explosive) and bad (far more sack- and mistake-prone). It worked for much of 2024, then it suddenly didn’t work at all.

Milroe is off to the NFL, and Ryan Grubb, Washington’s 2023 offensive coordinator, is back in tow after a year in the pros. Likely starting quarterback Ty Simpson was the nation’s No. 2 dual-threat quarterback prospect in 2022, and he showed solid wheels in ripping off a 78-yard should’ve-been-a-touchdown run in garbage time against Chattanooga in 2023. (He also showed the wrong kind of Milroe similarities in somehow taking five sacks in just 15 dropbacks against South Florida that same year.) Splitting the difference between Penix and Milroe, and shedding some of the negative plays that doomed Milroe late in 2024, could take Bama quite a long way.

Simpson — or, if Simpson falters, sophomore Dylan Mack or five-star freshman Keelon Russell — will certainly have solid weapons around him. After an incredible start to his freshman year (544 receiving yards at 28.6 per catch in his first five games), Ryan Williams managed just 321 yards at 11.1 per catch the rest of the way, but he was still outstanding for a first-year player. Williams, senior Germie Bernard and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton will lead the way at receiver, while high-upside youngsters like Jalen Hale, Rico Scott and, perhaps, converted corner Jaylen Mbakwe attempt to carve out niches. At running back, solid seniors Jam Miller and Louisville transfer Dre Washington will vie for carries with sophomores Richard Young and Daniel Hill. And a potentially spectacular offensive line, led by left tackle Kadyn Proctor and center Parker Brailsford, could help to turn a good skill corps into a great one.

The defense should already be great. Last season the Tide ranked fifth in points allowed per drive, combining top-20 efficiency (success rate) and big-play prevention (yards allowed per successful play) with elite red zone play and turnover capabilities. Best of all, of the 19 players who saw 200-plus snaps, 13 return. The spine of the defense — senior tackles LT Overton and Tim Keenan III, linebacker Deontae Lawson and safeties Keon Sabb and Bray Hubbard — has massive experience and known quality, and on the outside, corner Domani Jackson and sophomores such as edge rusher Qua Russaw and corners Zabien Brown and Cam Calhoun (a Utah transfer) have flashed elite upside. If coordinator Kane Wommack can figure out how to better rush the passer, quarterback might be the only question mark this team has.

Quarterback is awfully important, though, and Georgia shows up on the schedule by the end of September. Simpson has to not only be ready but ready quickly. That’s not how things always work out.

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Head coach: Kirby Smart (10th year, 105-19 overall)

2025 projection: Fourth in SP+, 9.8 average wins (5.9 in the SEC)

I talked about ceilings and floors above and how Georgia and Texas reached the SEC championship game primarily because they avoided the low lows that befell other contenders. In Georgia’s case, we got a perfect example of how a high floor can work for you.

The Bulldogs finished sixth in SP+ (their worst ranking since 2020), 10th on offense (worst since 2020) and ninth on defense (worst since 2018). The Dawgs were clearly a couple of steps off where they were while going 42-2, with three straight top-2 SP+ finishes, from 2021 to 2023. And yet, they dominated in the red zone, avoided third-and-longs, dominated on fourth downs when necessary and played great special teams. They had the depth to account for most of the injuries that came their way, and they beat Texas twice — once via a comeback engineered by backup quarterback Gunner Stockton after Carson Beck’s season-ending injury — and won the SEC in this supposed down year. Stockton couldn’t lead the Dawgs past Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals, but it’s pretty clear Georgia’s down years remain better than most teams’ great years.

There’s reason to wonder if Georgia is in for another one of these “down” years. Kirby Smart still recruits an absurd number of blue-chippers and, therefore, has one of the best roster bases in the country. And while he certainly hasn’t used the transfer portal to great effect like rival coaches, he did bring in rather proven entities in running back Josh McCray (Illinois), edge rusher Elo Modozie (Army) and maybe nickel Adrian Maddox, along with physically impressive — if relatively unproven — players such as receivers Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), defensive tackle Josh Horton (Miami) and safeties Jaden Harris (Miami) and Zion Branch (USC). I’m guessing Georgia’s floor will still be as high as anyone’s.

I struggle to see many units that might improve over last year, however. Sophomore running back Nate Frazier could be ready for a star turn, with the bull-like McCray providing a scary change of pace, and if the new safeties are solid, the secondary could improve a bit, even if it isn’t as elite as past Georgia secondaries. Special teams should remain awesome too, with the return of kicker Peyton Woodring and punter Brett Thorson and the addition of Zachariah Branch as a scary return man.

The incoming receivers’ per-route numbers, however, basically match those of the starters who just left; Beck didn’t get enough from his receiving corps last year, and there’s no guarantee Stockton will. Despite this, Beck still finished eighth in Total QBR with 3,485 passing yards and 28 TDs, and Stockton will have to play awfully well to match that. Meanwhile, last year’s top four offensive linemen are gone, as are seven of the 10 defensive linemen and linebackers who saw 300-plus snaps. The front seven’s production dipped in 2024, and now it’s double-dipping in the turnover department.

No matter how many holes Georgia has, there are countless blue-chippers vying to fill them. That could work out beautifully. But it’s easier to see a repeat of 2024 than a return to 2021-23 in Athens this year. With the right breaks, that could be enough to prompt another SEC title run or more. But it also leaves the door open for other contenders.

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Head coach: Steve Sarkisian (fifth year, 37-17 overall)

2025 projection: Fifth in SP+, 9.6 average wins (6.3 in the SEC)

Reading the tea leaves and sussing out the conventional wisdom, it sure seems like Texas is going to be the No. 1 team in the preseason polls. And I get it. There really is a chance that Arch Manning is as good as we’ve been assuming he’d become for years, and if he is, then nothing else matters all that much.

The Longhorns have only a couple of last year’s key receivers returning — DeAndre Moore Jr. and sophomore Ryan Wingo — and while both battled ups and downs in 2024, their upside is obvious. So is that of big-time freshmen like Kaliq Lockett and Jaime Ffrench. Manning will have a strong set of running backs at his disposal, with leading rusher Quintrevion Wisner returning and sophomore C.J. Baxter, a key 2023 piece, back from injury. And while the line is replacing four starters, including incredible left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., Manning’s athleticism and Manning-esque smarts would make their jobs easier up front. The defense has holes to fill up front, but it’s going to be good no matter what, and if Manning is dominating, the Horns will have more margin for error on that side.

As I asked in my Ifs List, however, what if Manning is merely very good? What if he flashes epic upside — like he did against UTSA, completing passes of 75, 51 and 36 yards and ripping off a 67-yard touchdown run in less than 30 snaps — but also gets fooled at times, like he did against Louisiana-Monroe (and in cameos against Georgia and Florida)? What if he needs an unproven receiving corps to bail him out and an unproven offensive line to protect him more?

What if, against a tougher schedule than last season, the offense gets held in the 17-point range a couple of times and the defense has to make more stops than usual? The back eight will certainly do its job, thanks to the best linebacking corps in the country — Anthony Hill Jr. (15.5 TFLs last year) is otherworldly, as are edge rushers Trey Moore and Colin Simmons — and a secondary featuring corner Malik Muhammad, safety Michael Taaffe and nickel Jaylon Guilbeau. But what about a defensive line that lost five of last year’s top six and is double-dipping turnover like Georgia’s front seven? Can senior Ethan Burke and a load of incoming transfer tackles, including the mammoth Travis Shaw (North Carolina) and Cole Brevard (Purdue), get the push required? And if the injury bug bites more than it did last year, when the Horns ranked fourth in lineup stability, will that wreck what already appears to be tenuous depth in some areas?

I have a lot more questions about Texas than I do the typical (expected) No. 1 team, but it could turn out that the answers match the hype. Steve Sarkisian has slowly built quite the juggernaut, and Manning is a Manning. Regardless, we barely have to wait another month to start getting answers. Having Texas at Ohio State in Week 1 absolutely rules.

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Head coach: Brian Kelly (fourth year, 29-11 overall)

2025 projection: Ninth in SP+, 8.5 average wins (5.2 in the SEC)

In three years at LSU, Brian Kelly has had three top-15 offenses, the best offensive player in the country (Jayden Daniels in 2023) and the best defensive player in the country (Harold Perkins Jr. late in 2022). His Tigers have beaten three top-10 teams, and they’ve spent parts of all three seasons in the AP top 10.

They’re also 0-3 in season openers, they’ve lost to three unranked teams and they’ve lost four games by at least 20 points. Their offenses have been consistently good, but they’ve averaged just a 36.3 ranking in defensive SP+ and 73.3 in special teams. When Kelly arrived in Baton Rouge, he immediately restored LSU’s top-15ish credentials after down seasons at the end of the Ed Orgeron era. But the Tigers were 10th in SP+ in 2022, 11th in 2023 and 15th in 2024. That’s good, but it’s not moving in the right direction.

This year could further the stagnation, but the Tigers remain really close to a breakthrough. Garrett Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns last season, taking few sacks and distributing the ball beautifully — seven players caught at least 20 passes, with three between 55 and 61. Of the seven primary receivers, slot man Aaron Anderson, wideout Zavion Thomas and running back Caden Durham return. They’re joined by some potentially fun transfers in Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky). Plus, tight end Trey’Dez Green hinted at great things as a freshman, and if bowl standout Chris Hilton Jr. ever achieves consistency, he’s going to be scary: He has averaged 21.2 yards per catch in his career, but he has caught only 31 balls in parts of four seasons.

Nussmeier was awesome on third-and-longs, but he had to be because the run game wasn’t giving him much help. Durham averaged a fantastic 3.8 yards per carry after contact, but he faced contact quickly, and now his line is replacing four starters. Including two transfers, six linemen have starting experience, but it’s going to be an extremely young group.

After stumbling to 52nd in defensive SP+ in 2023, LSU rebounded to 34th in Blake Baker‘s first season as coordinator. That’s pretty good considering Perkins made it just four games before getting injured for the season, but it’s not good enough for title contention. If Perkins and Whit Weeks, another disruptive linebacker who suffered a serious injury last season, are 100% healthy at the same time, that’s one of the best linebacking duos in the country. Kelly tried to sign every defensive end in the portal and came away with Florida State’s Patrick Payton, among others, plus a 10-TFL tackle in Bernard Gooden (USF). The secondary returns corner Ashton Stamps (13 pass breakups) and an active trio of transfers in corner Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech), safety A.J. Haulcy (Houston) and nickel Tamarcus Cooley (NC State). Baker loves to attack. How many times LSU gets burned in the process will determine the course of the season.

The schedule is loaded with trips to Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, but when LSU is cooking, the Tigers can romp through any schedule. It’s just been a little while since they cooked.

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Head coach: Lane Kiffin (sixth year, 44-18 overall)

2025 projection: 11th in SP+, 8.9 average wins (5.1 in the SEC)

On one hand, I was pretty satisfied with Ole Miss missing the playoff. I am happy with the idea that losses matter — even really close ones (they lost three by 13 combined points) and statistically unlikely ones.

On the other hand, damn, Ole Miss was really, really good last year. Per SP+, this was the best Rebel team since 1963, with its best offense since 1971 and its best defense since 1966. Lane Kiffin channeled John Vaught last season, but the Rebels came up just short of a playoff shot. Blow a chance to make a big title run with a squad like that, and you may end up regretting it for quite a while.

Ole Miss offensive players made 143 starts last season; those responsible for just 31 return: slot receiver Cayden Lee (12 starts), tackle Diego Pounds (nine), tight end Dae’Quan Wright (six) and tackle Jayden Williams (four). Among 17 incoming transfers, running back Damien Taylor (Troy) and receivers De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State) and Harrison Wallace III (Penn State) should be solid immediately, and young former blue-chippers in running back Kewan Lacy (Missouri) and receiver Caleb Odom (Alabama) have obvious upside. With 2024 LSU transfer Logan Diggs healthy and ready to roll, the skill corps should be solid. I don’t see any guaranteed stars among the incoming linemen, though.

The most important player on the offense isn’t actually a transfer, though. Granted, Kiffin signed three new QBs, including one of my favorites, Division II star Trinidad Chambliss (2,925 passing yards and 1,019 rushing yards at Ferris State last year). But the job is sophomore Austin Simmons‘ to lose.

Simmons is a redshirt sophomore who finished high school two years early and already earned his undergrad degree (and pitched for the baseball team as a freshman). He was pretty good in a tiny sample last season — he went 5-for-6 for 64 yards filling in for Jaxson Dart in the big win over Georgia — and if he’s awesome, the Rebels will be too.

Pete Golding’s defense enjoyed an incredible breakthrough last season, jumping from 23rd to third in defensive SP+, but of the 18 players with 200-plus snaps, only four return. The front six is exciting — outside linebacker Suntarine Perkins (10.5 sacks, 10 run stops) is dynamite, sophomore tackle Jamarious Brown is super active for his size (6-foot-1, 315 pounds) and linebacker transfers Jaden Yates (Marshall) and Andrew Jones (Grambling) were major playmakers at their last school. But the secondary will be entirely transfer-dependent. Corners Ricky Fletcher (South Alabama) and Jaylon Braxton (Arkansas) and safeties Kapena Gushiken (Washington State), Wydett Williams Jr. (ULM) and Sage Ryan (LSU) could all be good, but the hit rate needs to be about 100% among them.

By SEC standards, the Rebels’ schedule is again manageable, but it wasn’t the big games that hurt Ole Miss last year. If Simmons clicks, and the new defense doesn’t fall off too much, maybe they’ll get a chance to right 2024’s wrongs.

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Head coach: Josh Heupel (fifth year, 37-15 overall)

2025 projection: 13th in SP+, 8.8 average wins (5.0 in the SEC)

Tennessee had suffered three losing seasons in four years (and, somehow, eight in 13) before Josh Heupel took over. He has already enjoyed two top-10 finishes with no losing seasons. Better yet, his two top-10 teams were completely different from one another: Per SP+, the 2022 team was driven by the Vols’ best offense since 1940, and last year’s was driven by their best defense since 1999.

The 2025 Vols will likely also be defense-first. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks deploys a huge rotation, and at least 12 of the 25 guys with 150-plus snaps return, including one of the SEC’s best run-stopping defensive ends (Joshua Josephs), one of its most active 300-pounders (Bryson Eason), the team’s leading tackler (Arion Carter) and up to three starting defensive backs.

Why “up to four” DBs? Because the status of star cornerback Jermod McCoy remains unknown after a January ACL tear. The Vols won’t be at their best until/unless he’s 100%. They ranked sixth in lineup stability last year, but 2025 immediately got off to a poor start with McCoy’s injury.

The offense was still solid in 2024, slipping only to 23rd in offensive SP+, but the big plays have definitely vanished through the years.

Opponents have slowly adjusted to Heupel’s quick offense and seem basically to be giving the Vols the Patrick Mahomes treatment at this point (let them have whatever they want close to the line of scrimmage and form a cloud in the back to prevent the huge gashes).

Of last year’s starters, only receiver Chris Brazzell II, tight end Miles Kitselman (who was injured in the spring) and left tackle Lance Heard return. The Vols basically traded quarterback Nico Iamaleava to UCLA for Joey Aguilar in the spring. Iamaleava was the far more highly touted recruit, but Aguilar, who transferred from Appalachian State to UCLA last winter, is a far better scrambler and takes far fewer sacks. (He also throws more picks.)

Learning a third offense in less than a year isn’t optimal, and if Aguilar isn’t up to speed, redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger could take over. The Vols are probably fine at running back, where sophomores DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis could replicate new Cleveland Brown Dylan Sampson’s production, but sophomore Mike Matthews and redshirt freshman Braylon Staley both might start after combining for 10 catches last year, while the second string is littered with freshmen and, potentially, Carter, who played on both sides of the ball in the spring. It’s a similar story up front, where the two-deep will consist of Heard, transfers Wendell Moe Jr. (Arizona) and Sam Pendleton (Notre Dame) and an assembly line of redshirt freshmen and sophomores. It feels like the Vols could end up with their best defense and worst offense yet in the Heupel era.

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A couple of breaks away from a run

Head coach: Mike Elko (second year, 8-5 overall)

2025 projection: 15th in SP+, 7.7 average wins (4.5 in the SEC)

It wasn’t LaNorris Sellers, it wasn’t DJ Lagway, and it wasn’t Michael Van Buren Jr. or Michael Hawkins Jr. either. Who was the best freshman quarterback in the SEC last year, per Total QBR? Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed.

A four-star true freshman from Nashville, Tennessee, Reed first filled in for an injured Conner Weigman, then took Weigman’s job outright after leading a nearly perfect second-half performance against LSU. He wasn’t the most explosive passer, he scrambled a bit too much and opponents baited him into more mistakes late in the season. But among the 17 SEC QBs with at least 150 dropbacks, he ranked fourth in success rate with the third-lowest sack rate. He kept the Aggies moving forward with his arm and his legs (633 non-sack rushing yards).

The run game will be absolutely dynamite with Reed and seniors Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss (combined: 1,426 yards and 18 TDs last year) and sophomore Rueben Owens running behind an enormous line that returns last year’s top six, five of whom are seniors (average size: 6-6, 333 pounds). A&M will absolutely maul opponents that don’t have a good enough defensive front.

When Reed has to pass, he’ll lean on a new receiving corps that lost last year’s top five targets. He should have an excellent possession option in NC State slot transfer KC Concepcion, but he’ll need a few youngsters to come through, like sophomore (and former top-20 prospect) Terry Bussey, all-or-nothing Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver and less-tested options like redshirt freshmen Ashton Bethel-Roman and Izaiah Williams and freshman Jerome Myles.

The Aggies defense was spectacularly all-or-nothing last season: In their past five games, they allowed 44, 3, 43, 17 and 35 points. That’s how things go when you stop 39% of snaps at or behind the line of scrimmage (eighth nationally) but rank 119th in yards allowed per successful play. The secondary is where most of the booms and busts originated — the Ags were fourth in completion rate allowed but 121st in yards allowed per successful dropback — and experience should help to tamp down the glitches. Starting safeties Dalton Brooks and Marcus Ratcliffe and corner Dezz Ricks were all freshmen or sophomores, and they should improve alongside senior corner Will Lee III. I love the addition of nickel Jordan Shaw (Washington), another sophomore with playmaker instincts.

The Aggies ranked just 85th in sack rate despite solid work from second-round NFL draft pick Nic Scourton, but the addition of transfer ends Dayon Hayes (Colorado), T.J. Searcy (Florida) and Samuel M’Pemba (Georgia) could help in that regard. Big tackle Albert Regis and linebackers Taurean York and Scooby Williams made double-digit run stuffs last season; if the pass rush improves a hair, the defense will too.

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Head coach: Shane Beamer (fifth year, 29-22 overall)

2025 projection: 17th in SP+, 7.2 average wins (4.1 in the SEC)

Shane Beamer makes memories. He has struggled to build momentum at South Carolina, bouncing from 48th to 19th to 51st to 14th in SP+. His Gamecocks have lost nine games by at least 21 points. But he finished his first season by christening the mayo bath tradition, and his Gamecocks beat No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson back-to-back late in 2022. Last season, after a 3-3 start, they won six in a row and got two highlight-reel touchdowns from LaNorris Sellers to beat Clemson again.

South Carolina has been so all over the map under Beamer that either a charge into the top 10 or a .500 season wouldn’t be a surprise.

From a pure entertainment standpoint, you might want to root for the top-10 charge because that would mean Sellers took a spectacular leap. He took too many sacks last year and finished 42nd in Total QBR, but his great plays were unreal. The Clemson game was indicative: He took three sacks, committed two turnovers and led just one scoring drive in South Carolina’s first eight possessions but ripped off the two brilliant runs to win the game. With any consistency whatsoever, he’d be scary.

The rest of the team is retooling. The offense lost its leading rusher (Raheim Sanders) and receiver (tight end Joshua Simon) and entire interior offensive line, while the defense lost nearly its entire front six outside of end Dylan Stewart.

Stewart is fantastic — he had 11 TFLs and 6.5 sacks as a true freshman — but he’s the only known quantity, and the only semi-proven pass rusher arriving via the portal is Campbell’s George Wilson. The secondary was young, aggressive and sometimes error-prone in 2024, but it returns five of last year’s top seven, including outstanding nickel Jalon Kilgore, and added solid corners in Brandon Cisse (NC State) and Myles Norwood (Ball State).

The 6-3, 240-pound Sellers will form an imposing backfield with transfer running backs Rahsul Faison (Utah State) and Isaiah Augustave (Colorado), and the offensive line will be big, albeit patched together with transfers. The receiving corps is semi-proven at best. Former star recruit Nyck Harbor is ridiculously imposing (6-5, 235) and grew slightly more consistent late in 2024, but he has been more athlete than receiver to date.

After a somewhat manageable start, South Carolina will play seven projected top-21 teams in its final nine games. That brutal stretch will probably preclude the Gamecocks from making a serious run at the CFP, but when Beamer and Sellers are involved, anything is possible.

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Head coach: Eliah Drinkwitz (sixth year, 38-24 overall)

2025 projection: 21st in SP+, 7.7 average wins (4.0 in the SEC)

If you have sturdy quarterback play, you can properly execute a good two- or four-minute drill, and with a strong kicker who can bomb in clutch field goals, you’re probably going to win more close games than you lose. Missouri had all those things in 2023 (while ranking 10th in SP+) and 2024 (19th), but winning 21 combined games required a 10-1 record in one-score finishes. With solid QB play, the Tigers could be a top-25 team again on paper, and the schedule is friendly by SEC standards. But no one wins 90% of their close games forever.

Drinkwitz did a nice job of basically adding a transfer for every starter lost. Either Penn State transfer Beau Pribula or former blue-chipper Sam Horn will fill Brady Cook’s shoes at quarterback. As Drew Allar‘s backup at Penn State, Pribula threw mostly short, smart passes and kept PSU on schedule with his feet, but he never really had to show off his arm or make big plays in crunch time. We’ll see how that goes.

Drinkwitz also added Louisiana-Monroe running back Ahmad Hardy. Among 32 backs with 200-plus carries, Hardy ranked sixth in yards per carry after contact (3.7) and first in forced missed tackles per touch (0.33), and he was a freshman playing on an outmanned team.

With last year’s top two receivers gone, Drinkwitz added 900-yard transfers in Kevin Coleman (Mississippi State) and Xavier Loyd (Illinois State), and with five of the top seven linemen gone, in come five transfers, including key left tackle Johnny Williams IV (West Virginia). The offense will have lots of starting experience, but most of it came elsewhere.

On defense, things look awfully sound for coordinator Corey Batoon. Mizzou has ranked 24th or better in defensive SP+ for three straight seasons and returns seven starters. The pass rush was key to having the No. 5 third-down defense in FBS, and losing end Johnny Walker Jr. hurts in that regard, but returnee Zion Young and a host of defensive end transfers, led by Damon Wilson II (Georgia), should offer solid options. And if the rush is good, the secondary could be fantastic; it returns five of last year’s top six, including disruptive nickel Daylan Carnell, and adds four starters from elsewhere, including well-traveled safety Jalen Catalon (UNLV). The offense’s main job could be to control the ball, avoid mistakes and try to hand the game to an excellent defense. Come to think of it, that also sounds like a pretty good close-game recipe.

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Head coach: Billy Napier (fourth year, 19-19 overall)

2025 projection: 14th in SP+, 7.0 average wins (3.9 in the SEC)

I talked about plenty of fortunate teams above, but you know who wasn’t very fortunate in 2024? The Florida Gators. They were 134th out of 136 teams in lineup stability.

They started three different quarterbacks, three running backs, 10 receivers and tight ends, seven offensive linemen, 11 defensive linemen, three linebackers and 12 defensive backs. Among all these starters were tons of freshmen and sophomores. But somehow, despite the constant shuffling and a schedule that featured seven of the nation’s top 15 teams per SP+, the Gators proved incredibly resilient. They lost their first five games against top opponents during a 4-5 start, but they beat LSU and Ole Miss in November, then smoked Florida State and Tulane to round out an encouraging eight-win campaign.

If you survive injuries and shuffling, you come out on the other side with a wonderfully experienced team. Of the 49 players who started at least once on offense or defense, 29 return. The offense boasts a pair of potential all-conference linemen (tackle Austin Barber and center Jake Slaughter), along with ESPN BET’s current No. 6 Heisman favorite, quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway was inconsistent in typical freshman ways, running himself into pressure occasionally, throwing a pick every 21.3 passes and producing a substandard completion rate. But he also averaged a whopping 16.7 yards per completion. He was a major big-play outlier.

Lagway has plenty of familiar faces around him, including fellow sophomores in leading rusher Jadan Baugh and receivers Eugene Wilson III and Aidan Mizell. Wilson was a star in the making but missed most of last season. This isn’t the league’s deepest skill corps, but it is pretty dangerous. And in addition to Slaughter and Barber up front are four others who started at least one game.

The defense had a huge role to play in 2024’s success. The Gators pulled a solid bend-don’t-break routine, forcing enough turnovers and red zone stops to make it work. Considering injuries and general inexperience, that’s impressive. There aren’t many surefire stars here — end Tyreak Sapp and nickel Sharif Denson are the closest things, and with more snaps blue-chip sophomore Myles Graham might become one — but the depth is outstanding.

I’m pretty high on this team, but the schedule still has seven projected top-15 teams. The Gators drew the short straw in the current SEC scheduling rotation, and it could cost them status as a CFP contender.

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Head coach: Hugh Freeze (third year, 11-14 overall)

2025 projection: 25th in SP+, 6.9 average wins (3.6 in the SEC)

On paper, Hugh Freeze’s 2024 Auburn Tigers were just about the least fortunate team you’ll ever see. They were 125th in turnovers luck, and according to the postgame win expectancy measure I discussed near the top of this piece, they managed to lose games with postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76% and 61%. SP+ saw an 8-4 team that accidentally went 5-7, and that tends to almost guarantee improvement the next season. But if you actually watched Auburn, the breakdowns were so reliable — here comes another red zone breakdown, here comes another missed field goal, here comes another turnover — that it was difficult to see the losses as mere poor fortune.

Maybe no team in the country, therefore, combines raw upside with extreme burden of proof like Auburn.

There’s potential everywhere you look. Blue-chip sophomore receivers Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons return after combining for 1,049 yards and 11 TDs, and they’re joined by portal standout Eric Singleton Jr. (Georgia Tech). Longtime running back Jarquez Hunter is gone, but returnee Damari Alston and transfer Durell Robinson (UConn) are explosive. And the offensive line returns four starters and adds two more in tackles Mason Murphy (USC) and Xavier Chaplin (Virginia Tech).

On defense, end Keldric Faulk became a star in 2024, and corners Kayin Lee and Jay Crawford combined for 18 passes defended. Freeze also added two of my Group-of-5 portal favorites in edge rusher Chris Murray (Sam Houston) and corner Raion Strader (Miami-Ohio).

Notice I haven’t said the word “quarterback” in this capsule yet. Freeze hasn’t gotten what he needs from the position, and he basically flipped the entire QB room: All four players who took snaps last year are gone, and three transfers — Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma), Ashton Daniels (Stanford) and Tanner Bailey (South Carolina) — and blue-chip freshman Deuce Knight are in. Arnold, the No. 3 prospect in the 2023 recruiting class, is the presumptive favorite; he does everything with maximum urgency and intensity, and he ran all over Alabama in OU’s upset win. But he also seems to lack patience when looking to pass, and that created some awfully bad habits when he was dealing with breakdowns from a poor Oklahoma line. By the end of the season, his pocket awareness and internal clock were completely broken. That’s hard to fix, but he’ll at least get some favorable reads in Freeze’s RPO-heavy system.

Freeze has been recruiting well and could leave last year’s crippling mistakes in the past if — IF — he has a quarterback.

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Head coach: Brent Venables (fourth year, 22-17 overall)

2025 projection: 16th in SP+, 6.9 average wins (3.5 in the SEC)

The last time Oklahoma had a three-year record this bad, the Sooners won the national title the following season. They jolted from their late-1990s slide to go 13-0 in 2000 with a trendy offense and a speedy, aggressive defense. Brent Venables was the defensive co-coordinator for that run; now he’s the head coach trying desperately to arrest a slide. OU has gone 6-7 in two of his three seasons. It took until last season to get the defense up and running — per SP+, the Sooners had their best defense since 2009. But the offense completely fell apart, dragged down by its worst line in ages, a lack of healthy skill corps standouts and inexperienced quarterbacks who fell into bad habits.

The defense should be fantastic again. The line is loaded with seniors like end R Mason Thomas and tackle Gracen Halton, and Venables made a couple of fun additions in end Marvin Jones Jr. (Florida State) and tackle Siolaa Lolohea (Utah State). It’s a similar story at linebacker, where Kendal Daniels (Oklahoma State) joins standouts Kip Lewis and Kobie McKinzie. The biggest issue last year was occasional big-play breakdowns in the back, but after surviving a number of injuries, the secondary returns six players with starting experience and potential stars in safeties Robert Spears-Jennings and Peyton Bowen and nickel Kendel Dolby.

Even against a schedule featuring nine projected top-25 teams (!), the defense will give the Sooners a chance in most games. The offense’s improvement will determine whether they can actually win a few. Venables brought both offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer over from Washington State. It’s not hard to see why.

Mateer threw for 3,139 yards and rushed for 1,032 not including sacks. He can scramble into trouble sometimes, which might be an issue if the line hasn’t improved — Venables did sign three OL transfers — but the skill corps has been completely restocked with running back Jaydn Ott (Cal) and eight new pass catchers. None of the four new FBS transfers blow me away on paper, but JaVonnie Gibson (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) is one of four immensely explosive smaller-school transfers. The Arbuckle offense leans heavily on slot receivers, and if returnee Deion Burks can stay healthy, he could post huge numbers. Even just a top-30ish offense, this is a top-15ish team. The ridiculous schedule will put a ceiling on the win total, but the bar for improvement isn’t particularly high.

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Just looking for a path to 6-6

Head coach: Sam Pittman (sixth year, 30-31 overall)

2025 projection: 38th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.5 in the SEC)

Sam Pittman’s Arkansas team doesn’t stand still. In 2021, the Razorbacks surged from 3-7 to 9-4. In 2023, they collapsed to 4-8. Last fall saw a promising rebound to 7-6 and 24th in SP+, but a 1-3 record in one-score finishes kept the excitement tamped down a bit. In 2025, both the offense and defense start over to a degree.

The Razorbacks improved from 56th to 40th in offensive SP+ in Bobby Petrino’s first season back in Fayetteville as offensive coordinator. Volatile quarterback Taylen Green returns after throwing for 3,154 yards and rushing for 838 (not including sacks); he takes too many sacks and is a constant turnover threat, but he makes countless big plays as well. His line returns three starters and adds three power-conference transfers, but the skill corps is almost completely new. Sophomore running back Braylen Russell is the only noteworthy returnee, and Pittman added nine transfer pass catchers and two running backs. New receiver O’Mega Blake (Charlotte) was maybe the most all-or-nothing receiver in FBS last season, averaging 24.8 yards per catch with a barely 50% catch rate. If other newcomers like Raylen Sharpe (Fresno State) and Ismael Cisse (Stanford) can provide solid possession options, Green should have what he needs.

Travis Williams’ defense improved to 35th in defensive SP+ last year, with a sturdy run defense and problems at the back with an injury-laden secondary. Linebacker Xavian Sorey Jr. is outstanding (100 tackles, 15 run stops), and big tackle Cameron Ball is a keeper, but of the 18 players with 200-plus snaps, they’re two of only six returnees. And beyond corner Julian Neal (Fresno State) and maybe edge rusher Phillip Lee (Troy), Pittman didn’t sign many surefire portal standouts. It might take Williams a while to figure out his best lineup.

With eight projected top-25 opponents, Arkansas is the third of the “short straw” teams with Florida and Oklahoma. Green is a must-watch QB, for reasons good and bad, and Blake could make the Hogs’ offense even more explosive. But I’m not sure they have the defense to overcome the schedule.

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Head coach: Mark Stoops (13th year, 77-73 overall)

2025 projection: 43rd in SP+, 4.7 average wins (1.9 in the SEC)

The last time Kentucky slipped below .500 (5-6 in 2020), Mark Stoops made an inspired offensive coordinator hire (new Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen), fielded the best offense of his tenure, won 10 games and, per SP+, fielded Kentucky’s best overall team since 1977. Four years later, the Wildcats need another shot in the arm. The defense has slipped a bit, the offense collapsed to 89th in offensive SP+ in Coen’s absence and UK went just 4-8 in 2024. Stoops kept offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan, instead attempting a portal-based rebound. Two former FCS stars might dictate the fate of the program.

If the offense is good again, it will mean redemption for Hamdan and quarterback Zach Calzada. The former Texas A&M and Auburn quarterback returns to the SEC after throwing for 6,342 yards in two seasons at Incarnate Word. He’ll get help from strong backs — burly transfers Dante Dowdell (Nebraska) and Seth McGowan (New Mexico State) join speedy sophomore Jamarion Wilcox — and a remodeled line, but the receiving corps is a question mark. Incoming receivers Kendrick Law (Alabama) and Troy Stellato (Clemson) will try to supply efficiency and free up all-or-nothing deep threats Ja’Mori Maclin and J.J. Hester (Oklahoma).

The defense has been merely good and not elite for a couple of years, and of the nine guys with 200-plus snaps in the front six, seven are gone. The return of senior tackle Josaih Hayes from an Achilles injury should help, but I’m most intrigued by the addition of the best defender in FCS, South Dakota’s Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace. He had 18.5 TFLs last season, and he’s got fantastic size (6-4, 265 pounds). The secondary lost a great nickel in Zion Childress but returns veteran safeties Jordan Lovett and Ty Bryant and corner JQ Hardaway.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the schedule isn’t going to help UK’s rebound attempt. The Wildcats are semi-comfortable favorites in only three games and play eight against projected top-25 teams. If Calzada is solid and Humphrey-Grace shines, bowl eligibility is possible, but another 10-win rebound is almost certainly not in the cards.

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Head coach: Clark Lea (fifth year, 16-33 overall)

2025 projection: 55th in SP+, 4.7 average wins (1.6 in the SEC)

The New Mexico State gambit worked!

Needing a boost in both toughness and playmaking, Clark Lea imported the former head coach (Jerry Kill), offensive coordinator (Tim Beck), quarterback (Diego Pavia) and tight end (Eli Stowers), among others, from the best NMSU team in decades. They delivered. Pavia became one of the SEC’s biggest personalities, the defense leaped from 124th to 59th in defensive SP+ (with minimal NMSU assistance) and the Commodores upset Bama for the first time in 40 years and enjoyed their first winning season in 11. Pavia evidently enjoyed the experience so much that he sued to come back for another year. And won.

Here’s where I have to be a Debbie Downer and point out that Vandy ranked seventh in turnovers luck and 11th in close-game fortune last season and might deal with comeuppance in both regards. Pavia’s willingness to both take and inflict hits is incredibly endearing, but it also meant that he spent a good portion of 2024 banged up and only somewhat effective. He gets Stowers, wideout Junior Sherrill and RB Sedrick Alexander back, and Lea added a big-play receiver transfer in Tre Richardson (Washburn). But the line lost four starters and got thinned out enough that Lea had to bring in seven transfers.

The defense should improve further. Of the 16 players with 200-plus snaps, 12 return, and I like new additions in tackle Mason Nelson (Western Michigan) and edge rusher Keanu Koht (Alabama). Honestly, the biggest loss for the defense might be punter Jesse Mirco. The Commodores benefited from major field position advantages that allowed their general bend-don’t-break act to prosper — 118th in success rate allowed, 42nd in yards allowed per successful play — and Mirco averaged 48.0 yards per punt.

If turnovers and close-game bounces (and field position) turn against Vandy, the downsides will be pretty obvious. But the Commodores return enough of last year’s key players to potentially create some more memories regardless.

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Head coach: Jeff Lebby (second year, 2-10 overall)

2025 projection: 71st in SP+, 3.8 average wins (1.0 in the SEC)

Near the bottom of each of these previews, I usually encounter a team that (A) stunk last year and (B) returns nobody. Their preview just becomes a list of transfers. With Mississippi State bottoming out last season under first-year coach Jeff Lebby, you’d have figured the Bulldogs were candidates for a total roster culling. But while Lebby brought in more transfers than anyone in the SEC and added double-digit jucos as well, he also held on to 20 players who started at least once last season. Granted, none of the returnees could prevent the Bulldogs from suffering their worst record since 2003, but some continuity is probably better than none, right?

The offense was terribly inefficient last season, but it was less so before Blake Shapen suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. He scrambles into trouble like many others in this conference, but he’s solid, and he’ll benefit from a strong pair of backs in Davon Booth and dynamic transfer Fluff Bothwell (South Alabama), one of 2024’s best freshman backs. The offensive line returns two starters and welcomes four from other FBS schools, and while the receiving corps has little known quality, it has quantity with two primary returnees (tight end Seydou Traore and wideout Jordan Mosley) joined by eight transfers.

The MSU defense bent far too much and forced far too few turnovers to pull a decent bend-don’t-break routine (133rd in success rate allowed). Lebby focused most of his portal work on the front six and landed potential upgrades in tackle Will Whitson (Coastal Carolina) and linebacker Jalen Smith (Tennessee), among others, and the addition of four new 300-pounders can’t hurt. If the push up front improves, the secondary could be solid with active safety Isaac Smith and three of last year’s top four corners returning.

The bar’s pretty low here, both because MSU was comfortably the league’s worst team last year and because there weren’t too many surefire upgrades. But the mix of newcomers and returning talent should create better depth, at least, and hey, it’s not hard to improve on 2-10.