The Bank of England may have lifted interest rates by less than a lot of people had been expecting up until recently – up by a quarter percentage point rather than a half – but for those with mortgages, the most striking thing from the trove of analysis they’ve published today isn’t about today but about tomorrow.
Because there are heavy hints dropped throughout the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report that it expects borrowing costs to stay high for a lot longer than many had anticipated.
Only a few months ago financial markets were betting that the Bank Rate – the official borrowing level set at Threadneedle Street – would be down to 4% by 2024 and 3.7% by 2025. Far higher than the post-financial crisis period but a fall all the same.
Now, those same markets think rates will still be at 5.9% in 2024 and at 5% by 2025. And rather than challenging those assumptions, the Bank has come as close as possible to reinforcing them.
This institution doesn’t provide explicit guidance about where it’s expecting interest rates to go; it prefers to drop hints. And the hint in the minutes alongside the decision today was about as heavy as you could get.
“The [Monetary Policy Committee] would ensure that Bank Rate was sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.”
Higher for longer, in other words.
Why? Another clue is to be found elsewhere in the Bank’s forecasts today. It’s worth quoting at length: “Sharp increases in energy food and other import prices over the past two years have had second-round effects on domestic prices and wages.
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“These second-round effects are likely to take longer to unwind than they did to emerge and the Monetary Policy Committee has placed weight in its recent forecasts on the risk that they might persist for longer.
“The committee now judges that some of this risk may have begun to crystallise.”
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‘Interest rates are not going down anytime soon’
It fears, in other words, that the inflation cat is now out of the bag. And thus getting price rises to come down may involve considerably more work on its part than it previously anticipated. Higher for longer.
Which of course means pain for many households – especially those with mortgages and those renting (most landlords also have mortgages).
And unlike previous eras where most households were on floating rate mortgages and thus that pain was very quickly felt in their pockets, today that pain is being drip fed into the economy as two and five year fixed-rate mortgages gradually expire and are replaced with far more expensive monthly payments.
Again, that means the impact of these interest rate increases is going to be a long, drawn-out affair. And you can see the implications in the Bank’s economic forecast. The economy isn’t likely to face a recession, at least according to its central projection.
But it will essentially flatline – depressed by these higher rates – for three years, not showing meaningful growth until 2026.
It is a depressing prospect. Perhaps the best thing to hope for is that the Bank is wrong. This has happened before – indeed it’s already submitting to an independent inquiry into how it failed to foresee the recent spike in inflation, led by former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
It’s not altogether implausible that they fail to foresee a more meaningful economic recovery.
Former Manchester United and Scotland footballer Denis Law has died, at the age of 84.
In a statement, his family said: “It is with a heavy heart that we tell you our father Denis Law has sadly passed away. He fought a tough battle, but finally, he is now at peace.
“We would like to thank everyone who contributed to his wellbeing and care, past and much more recently.
“We know how much people supported and loved him and that love was always appreciated and made the difference.”
The Aberdeen-born footballer previously announced in August 2021 that he had been diagnosed with dementia.
A prolific striker, Law scored 237 goals in 404 appearances for Manchester United, for whom he signed for a then-British record transfer fee in 1962.
He is the only man to have two statues dedicated to him at Old Trafford – one on the Stretford End concourse, the other as part of the United Trinity statue overlooking the stadium’s forecourt beside fellow great George Best and Sir Bobby Charlton.
The only Scottish player to have won the Ballon d’Or award, in 1964, he was also part of United’s triumphant campaign in the 1968 European Cup – in which they became the first English club to ever win the competition.
In a statement, the club said: “Everyone at Manchester United is mourning the loss of Denis Law, the King of the Stretford End, who has passed away, aged 84.
“He will always be celebrated as one of the club’s greatest and most beloved players.
“The ultimate goalscorer, his flair, spirit and love for the game made him the hero of a generation. Our deepest condolences go out to Denis’s family and many friends. His memory will live on forever more.”
Wayne Rooney, former United captain and the club’s all-time record goalscorer, described Law as a “legend”.
“Thoughts with all Denis’s family and friends,” he said in an online post.
Another former United captain, Gary Neville, said: “A great footballer and a great man. It’s a privilege and an honour to have spent time in your company. The King of the Stretford End.”
A tribute from the Scotland national team said Law was “a true great”.
“We will not see his likes again,” it said.
Law also played for Huddersfield Town, Manchester City, and Italian club Torino during his club career, and made 55 appearances for Scotland, scoring 30 goals for his country.
Manchester City said in a post on X: “The whole of Manchester, including everyone at City, is mourning with you. Rest in peace, Denis.”
The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
A Nazi-obsessed man has been jailed for attempted murder after he stabbed an asylum seeker in a terrorist attack.
Callum Parslow was handed a life sentence and will serve a minimum of 22 years and eight months in prison after he knifed the man at a Worcestershire hotel on 2 April last year, as a “protest” against small boat crossings.
The victim, Nahom Hagos, from Eritrea, said it was a “miracle” he survived after being stabbed in the chest and hand.
Parslow, 32, has Hitler’s signature tattooed on his arm and used a £770 knife he had bought online to attack Mr Hagos when he was eating in the conservatory of the Pear Tree Inn at Hindlip.
During sentencing, the judge, Mr Justice Dove, told Parslow: “You committed a vicious and unprovoked assault on a complete stranger Nahom Hagos who suffered devastating injuries as a result of your violence.”
The judge also said Parslow, from Worcester, was “motivated by your adoption of a far-right neo-Nazi mindset which fuelled your warped, violent and racist views”, and added: “This was undoubtedly a terrorist attack.”
Leicester Crown Court heard at the time that Mr Hagos, who used to live at the hotel, was visiting a friend and was stabbed after Parslow asked him for directions to the toilet.
CCTV from the scene showed Mr Hagos fleeing to a car park and being chased by Parslow. He was able to run back into the main reception area, where the hotel manager locked the front door.
Parslow later re-entered through another door apparently searching for further victims, the court heard.
The hotel manager and a builder used a van to take Mr Hagos to hospital in Worcester, as they felt he was losing too much blood, where he was found to have an 8cm-long wound which had not penetrated any of his vital organs.
After trying to kill Mr Hagos, Parslow ran towards a canal and was spotted with what appeared to be blood on his hands.
Officers found blood containing a DNA profile matching that of the victim on the blade of the knife abandoned by Parslow.
Failed manifesto post
After the stabbing and as police closed in, Parslow tried to post a “terrorist manifesto” on X, tagging Tommy Robinson and politicians including Nigel Farage, Suella Braverman and Sir Keir Starmer.
He wrote that he “just did my duty to England” and had tried to “exterminate” Mr Hagos. However, it failed to send as he copied in too many people.
Others on his list included Laurence Fox, Lee Anderson, Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and various news organisations.
Nazi memorabilia at bedsit
During the trial last October, the court heard an axe, metal baseball bat and a second knife were found at Parslow’s bedsit in Bromyard Terrace in Worcester.
Police also discovered a swastika armband, a Nazi-era medallion and copies of Hitler’s book Mein Kampf.
Jurors were also told Parslow had Hitler’s signature tattooed on his arm “in order to demonstrate his affiliation to the ideals of the leader of the German Nazi party”.
He also pleaded guilty to an unconnected sexual offence and two charges of sending electronic communications with intent to cause distress and anxiety at the time.