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Higher for longer.

The Bank of England may have lifted interest rates by less than a lot of people had been expecting up until recently – up by a quarter percentage point rather than a half – but for those with mortgages, the most striking thing from the trove of analysis they’ve published today isn’t about today but about tomorrow.

Because there are heavy hints dropped throughout the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report that it expects borrowing costs to stay high for a lot longer than many had anticipated.

Only a few months ago financial markets were betting that the Bank Rate – the official borrowing level set at Threadneedle Street – would be down to 4% by 2024 and 3.7% by 2025. Far higher than the post-financial crisis period but a fall all the same.

Now, those same markets think rates will still be at 5.9% in 2024 and at 5% by 2025. And rather than challenging those assumptions, the Bank has come as close as possible to reinforcing them.

This institution doesn’t provide explicit guidance about where it’s expecting interest rates to go; it prefers to drop hints. And the hint in the minutes alongside the decision today was about as heavy as you could get.

“The [Monetary Policy Committee] would ensure that Bank Rate was sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.”

Higher for longer, in other words.

Why? Another clue is to be found elsewhere in the Bank’s forecasts today. It’s worth quoting at length: “Sharp increases in energy food and other import prices over the past two years have had second-round effects on domestic prices and wages.

“These second-round effects are likely to take longer to unwind than they did to emerge and the Monetary Policy Committee has placed weight in its recent forecasts on the risk that they might persist for longer.

“The committee now judges that some of this risk may have begun to crystallise.”

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‘Interest rates are not going down anytime soon’

It fears, in other words, that the inflation cat is now out of the bag. And thus getting price rises to come down may involve considerably more work on its part than it previously anticipated. Higher for longer.

Which of course means pain for many households – especially those with mortgages and those renting (most landlords also have mortgages).

And unlike previous eras where most households were on floating rate mortgages and thus that pain was very quickly felt in their pockets, today that pain is being drip fed into the economy as two and five year fixed-rate mortgages gradually expire and are replaced with far more expensive monthly payments.

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Again, that means the impact of these interest rate increases is going to be a long, drawn-out affair. And you can see the implications in the Bank’s economic forecast. The economy isn’t likely to face a recession, at least according to its central projection.

But it will essentially flatline – depressed by these higher rates – for three years, not showing meaningful growth until 2026.

It is a depressing prospect. Perhaps the best thing to hope for is that the Bank is wrong. This has happened before – indeed it’s already submitting to an independent inquiry into how it failed to foresee the recent spike in inflation, led by former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.

It’s not altogether implausible that they fail to foresee a more meaningful economic recovery.

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UK

Girl, 3, dies after tram and van crash in Manchester city centre

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Girl, 3, dies after tram and van crash in Manchester city centre

A three-year-old girl has died after a collision between a tram and a van in Manchester city centre.

The girl was taken to hospital but died from her injuries, Greater Manchester Police (GMP) said.

“No arrests have been made and inquiries are ongoing,” the force said.

The child was a pedestrian and was not travelling in either the tram or van, GMP said.

The fatal collision happened on Mosley Street shortly before 10am, a Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) spokesperson said.

“All of our thoughts are with her family and loved ones at this incredibly difficult time. We are supporting police with their investigation,” a statement said.

A North West Ambulance Service spokesperson said two ambulances, a rapid response vehicle and two air ambulance crews attended the scene.

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TfGM said there was continued disruption across the Metrolink after the incident and advised people to check the Bee Network website and app for the latest travel information.

Manchester‘s Bee Network said: “Due to a road traffic collision on Mosley Street in the city centre, no tram services are operating between St Peter’s Square and Piccadilly Gardens.”

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An X post from GMP’s traffic officers said: “Our officers are currently in attendance at a collision, involving a tram and another vehicle in Manchester city centre.

“We are presently trying to establish the circumstances however we envisage there will be a lengthy closure of surrounding streets near to St Peters Square.”

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Jenny Hall: Drones deployed to look for missing runner – as police tell public not to join search

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Jenny Hall: Drones deployed to look for missing runner - as police tell public not to join search

Specialist drones have been deployed to look for a missing runner as police warn volunteers not to join the search.

Jenny Hall, 23, was last seen leaving her home in Barracks Farm, County Durham, in her car just after 3pm on Tuesday.

Durham Constabulary said her last known location was on the B6278 between Stanhope and Eggleston – where her red Ford Focus was parked.

As the major search operation entered its fourth day on Saturday, police said officers – along with search and mountain rescue teams – will be working in Hamsterley Forest and the surrounding areas to look for any trace of her.

Jenny Hall. Pic: Durham Constabulary
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Pic: Durham Constabulary

Police cars that helped the search for Jenny Hall in Hamsterley Forest. Pic: Facebook/Teesdale and Weardale Search and Mountain Rescue Team
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Police cars that helped the search for Jenny Hall in Hamsterley Forest. Pic: Facebook/Teesdale and Weardale Search and Mountain Rescue Team

Specialist drones have also been brought in as the latest tool in the search.

“We want to thank the public for their ongoing support and whilst we appreciate the offer of volunteers, we would ask that people do not join the search themselves as this could disturb the ongoing work and potentially distract expert sniffer dogs,” police said in a statement.

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Police give update on the search for missing Jenny Hall

Chief Inspector Dean Haythornthwaite said families out in the forest should “allow those officers the space to carry out their search and try not to disrupt that search area”.

Ms Hall is described as white and 6ft tall with dark brown hair.

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She was last seen wearing a blue hoodie with a John Deere logo and dark jogging bottoms.

Her family told police she may have been carrying a green jacket and had her hair up in a ponytail.

Two members of the search team. Pic: Facebook/Teesdale and Weardale Search and Rescue Team
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Two members of the search team. Pic: Facebook/Teesdale and Weardale Search and Rescue Team

On Friday, officers said they were becoming “increasingly concerned” as the search concentrated on running trails between Eggleston and Hamsterley used regularly by Ms Hall.

More than 100 miles of track have been searched in the Teesdale area by officers, the rural community and local landowners.

Digital intelligence officers have also carried out extensive inquiries into Ms Hall’s mobile phone, smart watch and running apps, but the force said “none have yielded any results unfortunately”.

Anyone who believes they may have seen Ms Hall or has any relevant information about her whereabouts is asked to contact police.

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New evidence shows how UK student protests about Gaza were handled by police and universities

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New evidence shows how UK student protests about Gaza were handled by police and universities

Camping, chaos, and confrontation.

A wave of pro-Palestinian student protest engulfed UK universities last year when thousands protested against the war in Gaza. Most started out peacefully on encampments with students pitching tents on university greens.

Now new evidence, uncovered by Sky News and Liberty Investigates, has shed some light on how some of those protests were policed.

We’ve seen instances of universities reporting protesters to police, starting dozens of disciplinaries, and in some instances we found universities collaborating with private surveillance firms.

What data tells us about handling of protests

Through Freedom of Information requests to more than 150 UK universities by Liberty Investigates, shared with Sky News, we found that at least 40 universities discussed Gaza protest activity with police forces or private intelligence organisations. Thirty-six universities had direct communication with the police.

Thirteen universities also discussed protests at meetings with police, including the University of London, Cambridge, and Manchester. Twenty-eight universities launched investigations against as many as 113 students, and staff were investigated for possible disciplinary breaches linked to their pro-Palestinian activism.

More than 20 universities also disclosed emails with a professional body for campus security, and correspondence appears to show collaboration between campus security departments and police to monitor student protesters, some even using intelligence from private security firms.

Though this is currently the clearest public picture of the scale of protest activity during that time, 47 universities did not provide the information requested. Most universities refused to specify the reasons and outcomes of the disciplinary investigations against students and staff, citing confidentiality issues.

Antisemitism on campus

The Community Security Trust, a charity that protects British Jews from terrorism and antisemitism, says it would be concerned if the number of student disciplinaries had not risen alongside the uptick of student protests and that otherwise, it would worry universities weren’t responding properly to anti-Jewish hatred.

SUFFIAN NADEEM
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Suffian, head of the Leeds University Palestinian Society

Dave Rich, director of policy at the Community Security Trust, said it has seen a rise in the number of antisemitic incidents on student campuses since the 7 October Hamas terrorist attack on Israel in 2023. The Community Security Trust says these incidents have gone up fivefold compared to the previous academic year.

David-Lior Banoun Rappaz, an undergraduate student at LSE, says: “There have definitely been a lot of antisemitic incidents on campus. It’s about being in the minority and having the other group being extremely loud about it.”

The rise in antisemitism has also concerned Dov Forman, author, activist and an undergraduate at a London university.

“University is a place where you should develop your opinions, where there should be freedom of speech, but that has to be within the confines of the law, and that can’t be at the expense of Jewish students like myself, who at times feel like we’re being dehumanised and even criticised on campus.”

Dov Forman, undergraduate at a London University.
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Dov Forman, an undergraduate at a London university

Universities UK acts as the collective voice of 141 universities in the UK and insists it is always trying to balance the tension between freedom of speech and freedom of expression.

The body also defends the right to police protests and says it is legitimate for universities to liaise with the police, adding that this happens only “occasionally” and where action is taken it has to be proportionate.

Universities UK vice president Malcolm Press
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Universities UK vice president Malcolm Press

Students feel unsafe after Newcastle incident

For some pro-Palestinian student activists at Newcastle, one incident stands out to them, they say, for police using “heavy-handed tactics” to break up a protest.

On 29 May last year, a rally that was described as non-violent by academics at the university quickly descended into chaos with officers intercepting protesters with batons.

From footage obtained for our investigation from protesters who were there, more than 40 officers including dog handlers are seen attending a building being occupied by students. Dozens of officers were earlier seen pushing and struggling with crowds of agitated protesters outside the entrance, before drawing their batons as the police line collapsed and skirmishes broke out.

Footage taken outside a different entrance to the university’s Armstrong building shows police carrying and dragging limp protesters out of a building by their limbs. You can make out one student collapsing – who we found out was later taken to hospital by paramedics after having a fit.

One student, Ivy*, has photos of bruising on her arm – which she says were caused by being grabbed by an officer.

She says “it was really, really overwhelming” and “it took a long time to feel okay afterwards”.

Another, Hana*, a medical student volunteering to provide first aid at the protest, shared a medical letter describing her knee injury after she was trampled by the crowd. She says “as a visibly Muslim woman, being on campus at the time, even being in Newcastle, was just terrifying”.

The student protesters we spoke to all said they no longer feel safe on campus.

Anonymous Newcastle student
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Anonymous Newcastle student

Since the summer, academics have been calling for the university’s leadership to explain the handling of the incident.

The university maintains there were “legitimate concerns for public safety” and explained that is why they contacted the police.

Anonymous Newcastle academic
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Anonymous Newcastle academic

Newcastle University said: “Where protest activity goes beyond the bounds of lawful protest, we reserve the right to seek assistance from the police to ensure the safety of everyone in our community.  All complaints to the University regarding staff and students have been investigated in line with our relevant policies.”

In a statement, a Northumbria Police spokesperson said: “Police attended the scene to engage with all parties involved, with the safety of everyone in attendance including the protesters, members of the public and officers paramount.

“While the activity mainly passed without incident, a number of protesters outside the building refused to comply with police instruction and seemed intent on gaining entry. The right to a lawful protest is a key part of any democracy, which the police uphold. However, we will not accept people using them as a means to commit crime.”

‘We have a right to speak out’

Suffian, a Leeds University student who is head of the Palestinian Society, feels that free speech on this issue is being restricted.

He was under a two-month investigation for “engaging in unauthorised protests and being a member of the encampment”.

Suffian, head of the Leeds University Palestinian Society
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Suffian says he has a right to speak out

The 21-year-old said he felt the university was using its disciplinary process to prevent students from taking part in protests.

He says: “There is no right way to protest… no protest should be authorised.

“We have a right as people to speak out about it. No child should be a child of war.”

As part of the disciplinary, he says he attended a meeting where he was shown footage of himself entering a building and leading chants.

He was then issued a “formal warning”.

Since filming with him his investigation has concluded and the university says it will not be taking any further action.

University of Leeds student protest security
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A protest at the University of Leeds last year

A spokesperson for the University of Leeds said: “The right to lawful protest must be carefully balanced between the rights of protesters to assert their views on the one hand and the rights of others to go about their business safely, unimpeded, and free from intimidation and harassment.

“The university has a clearly communicated student code and guidance on protests. Where students engage in misconduct, as outlined in our regulations, they may become subject to disciplinary action.”

* Not their actual names

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