The trend of shop prices falling may be reversing as businesses face higher costs, according to industry data.

The pace of price drops slowed this month, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

November was the first time in 17 months that the inflation rate was higher than a month earlier.

While shop prices dropped 0.8% in October compared to a year earlier, the fall slowed 0.6% in November, according to BRC figures.

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The figures may signal the end of falling inflation given cost pressures being placed on big businesses, according to BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson.

Retailers face a barrage of costs which the BRC forecasts will amount to an extra £7bn for retail businesses next year.

Budget measures such as the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions and a higher minimum wage form part of those costs as does the forthcoming packaging tax to fund recycling efforts.

These extra costs will just push up consumer prices, Ms Dickinson said.

“Retail already operates on slim margins, so these new costs will inevitably lead to higher prices.”

The official measure of inflation is already on the up with the first rise in three months recorded in October as energy bills rose. The rate of price rises rose sharply to 2.3% from 1.7% recorded a month earlier as the energy price cap was hiked.

If the government wants to prevent higher shop prices it must reconsider the April 2025 timeline for the new packaging levy and reduce the commercial property tax known as business rates “as early as possible”, Ms Dickinson added.

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The minimum wage uplift will bring pay for people over 21 to £12.21 an hour and take effect in April. People aged 18 to 20 will have to earn at least £10 an hour – something the TUC (Trades Union Congress) said could benefit 420,000 young people – as part of the government’s goal of paying the same minimum wage to all workers, regardless of age.

Also from April, employers will have to pay more national insurance for their staff.

Businesses’ national insurance contributions will increase from 13.8% to 15% with the current £9,100 threshold at which employers start to pay the tax on employees’ earnings lowering to £5,000.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has defended the increase saying half of all businesses – roughly a million firms – are paying either less or the same national insurance contributions as they were before the budget due to the uprated employment allowance, a tax credit for some employers.

Jobcentre reform will be at the centre of the Labour government’s plans to “get Britain working again”.

Tackling the increasing number of people out of work and relying on the state for income has become a major priority of the state, with welfare costs taking up a sizeable portion of government spending.

According to the government, more than nine million people are economically inactive, with 2.8 million on long-term sickness – a number which has risen significantly since the pandemic.

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The government will today be publishing its plans to get more people into employment in the form of the Get Britain Working white paper.

The government says its main aim is “to target and tackle the root causes of unemployment and inactivity, and better join up health skills and employment support based on the unique needs of local communities”.

Ill health is noted as the “biggest driver to inactivity”, and “fixing the NHS” is identified as a key task to get people back into work.

The government also points out that £22.6bn was promised in the budget for the health and social care system, with hopes that clearing NHS backlogs will return unwell people to the workforce.

The government says it will in future announce measures to “overhaul the health and disability benefits system so it better supports people to enter and remain in work and to tackle the spiralling benefits bill”.

As part of this, the 20 NHS trusts in England with the highest level of economic inactivity will be given extra capacity to reduce waiting lists.

Liz Kendall, the secretary of state for the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), said: “To get Britain growing, we need to get Britain working again.

“Our reforms will break down barriers to opportunity, help people to get into work and on at work, allow local leaders to boost jobs and growth, and give our children and young people the best opportunities to get on in life.”

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£240m for reforms

Key among the plans announced today are changes to Jobcentres – with a potential for the service to be rebranded and the name changed down the line.

The “outdated” system will be changed into a “national jobs and careers service”, according to today’s announcement.

The government says staff will be allowed more flexibility to help users of the service, moving away from the current “tick box” culture.

Some £55m will be spent on the transition – linking the scheme with the National Career Service – with the government hoping to use AI to help work coaches, and move more services online.

This package forms part of a greater £240m being pledged by Labour for reform.

A £125m tranche of this will be used to invest in eight areas in England and Wales to provide work, health and skills support, which will then be used as blueprints for the rest of the country.

Those not part of these schemes will be able to claim part of a £15m pot, with the government aiming to hand local authorities more power in employment.

Some £45m will be spent on eight “trailblazer” youth schemes in areas like Liverpool, Tees Valley and the East Midlands.

This is part of the government’s plans to increase the number of young people in work or education, and will target “those most at risk of falling out of education or employment and match them to opportunities for education, training or work”.

There will also be a “youth guarantee” – with 18 to 21-year-olds in England all having access to apprenticeship, education or help to find a job. As part of this, the apprenticeship levy will be reformed.

A review will also be launched into how employers can be better supported to employ people with disabilities.

‘An end to blaming and shaming’

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Our reforms put an end to the culture of blaming and shaming people who for too long haven’t been getting the support they need to get back to work.

“Helping people into decent, well-paid jobs and giving our children and young people the best start in life – that’s our plan to put more money in people’s pockets, unlock growth and make people better off.”

Helen Whately, the Conservative shadow work and pensions secretary, said Labour had made “no attempt to match the £12bn in welfare savings we promised in our manifesto”.

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Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, backed Labour’s plans – but said: “Success will also depend on ministers making the investment that’s needed in health services and quality training.

“Jobcentre staff must have a central role in redesigning their services, and devolution must never come at the cost of staff terms and conditions.”

Louise Rubin, who is head of policy at disability equality charity Scope, said the government must understand the “lack of trust between disabled people and the DWP” – and the potential this has to undermine the reforms.

MPs are set to vote on the Tobacco and Vapes Bill today, which the health secretary calls an “urgent intervention” to help children “avoid a life imprisoned by addiction”.

The proposed law looks to clamp down on the sale and advertising of vapes to young people, as well as provide more funding for stop-smoking services.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting said the amount of children vaping “is growing at an alarming rate and without urgent intervention, we’re going to have a generation of children with long-term addiction”.

“It is unacceptable that these harmful products are being deliberately targeted at children with brightly coloured packaging and flavours like ‘gummy bear’ and ‘rainbow burst’,” he added.

“The Tobacco and Vapes Bill provides the protection that children and young people need to avoid a life imprisoned by addiction.

“That’s why it’s so incredibly important it is voted through.”

What does the bill include?

A total ban on vape advertising and sponsorship will be brought in should the bill pass, with a possible ban on the sale of sweet vape flavours also on the table subject to consultation.

Anyone born after 1 January 2009 will also be prevented from legally smoking by gradually raising the age at which tobacco can be bought.

The sale of all vaping and nicotine products to those under 18 years old – including nicotine pouches and non-nicotine vapes – would also be banned.

Powers would also be provided to councils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland to introduce a licensing scheme for retailers to sell tobacco, vape and nicotine products.

It would also include on-the-spot fines of £200 for any shopkeepers found to be selling to those underage, and provide stop smoking services with £70m in funding.

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Another proposed stop-smoking measure would see hospitals asked to talk about smoking with patients while delivering routine care, “making every clinical consultation count”.

Around £10m will also be given to Trading Standards – which seized more than a million illegal vapes in 2023/24, according to National Trading Standards data – to crack down on illegal trade.

No ban on smoking in pub gardens

The bill would also give the government power to extend the indoor smoking ban to outdoor spaces – with children’s playgrounds, outside schools and hospitals all being considered in England.

It comes after Sir Keir Starmer said in August that the government was considering a more expansive ban on outdoor smoking – including in pub gardens and outdoor restaurants.

The prime minister said at the time it was aimed at reducing the 80,000 preventable deaths from smoking in the UK each year, but it caused an outcry within the hospitality industry.

However, earlier this month Mr Streeting confirmed to Sky News that the government would not go ahead with plans to ban outdoor smoking and vaping in pub gardens.

Separate environmental legislation to ban the sale and supply of single-use vapes will be introduced by the summer of next year.

It comes as the NHS prepares to offer tens of thousands of people in England a pill which can help them quit smoking.

Varenicline, a pill taken once a day, can be more effective than nicotine-replacement gum or patches, and as effective as vapes, in helping people to stop smoking, according to NHS England.

It is said to reduce cravings and the pleasurable effects of nicotine that keep people addicted.