How the Big 12 landed Colorado and shook up college football
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
On July 21, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff took the stage for media day at a critical time for his conference. USC and UCLA were already on their way out, and Colorado was rumored to be next as the league struggled to complete a TV deal.
Kliavkoff told a room full of media members and anyone watching that “our schools are committed to each other and the Pac-12.”
While Kliavkoff spoke, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark was wrapping up a regularly scheduled Zoom call with his athletic directors. As he completed an otherwise mundane meeting, he foreshadowed the big news to come without mentioning any school by name or any details.
“He said, ‘Guys, I’m not going to tell you anything,'” a source on the call said. “‘I’m just feeling really good about it. If it doesn’t happen next week, then it’s probably not going to happen for a while. But you’ll find out five minutes before it happens.’ And that’s basically what happened.”
The near simultaneous unfolding of two vastly different messages from two of the most powerful people in college athletics on a sweltering Friday in July was uncanny. Five days later, the Big 12 presidents and chancellors held a private call during which they voted unanimously to accept Colorado as a member. The next day, on July 27, the Colorado board of regents voted in favor of the move in a public videoconference — a swift formality that lasted less than 16 minutes and put an end to months of speculation about the future home of the Buffaloes.
For the third straight summer, conference realignment has been one of the biggest stories in college athletics — and for the second straight year, the Pac-12 is the league scrambling to pick up the pieces. In 2021, Big 12 co-founders Oklahoma and Texas announced their intent to join the SEC. In 2022, USC and UCLA decided to join the Big Ten, arguably an even more shocking move, given the geographical mismatch with the Big Ten and the history of the Pac-12’s flagship schools. All of those sweeping changes combined with new leadership and media rights deals contributed to where the Power 5 pecking order sits today — with Colorado leaving the Pac-12 in a precarious position.
Colorado’s flirtation with the Big 12 was one of the worst-kept secrets of the offseason.
“Do I think I caught my peers off guard?” Colorado athletic director Rick George said. “I don’t believe so, but that’s a question you have to ask them.”
“There was smoke,” one Pac-12 source said. “Smoke was being shown everywhere on this deal. So I don’t think it’s surprising. It was pretty clear and obvious for several months that Colorado was considering this move.”
It wasn’t necessarily the decision to leave that stunned the Pac-12 — it was the timing of it. Multiple sources told ESPN that on June 30, the Pac-12’s presidents and chancellors voted unanimously — including Colorado — to authorize Kliavkoff to set July 31 as the deadline for all of the league’s bidders on its new media rights deal. Those on the Zoom moved forward — and Kliavkoff walked onto the stage in Las Vegas believing the league would stay intact at least until all the bids were in.
“Pissed off is the wrong word,” a Pac-12 source with knowledge of the vote said. “[Pac-12 presidents and chancellors] were livid. Can’t overstate the betrayal.”
The Big 12 has been burned before too.
“We were on the other end of that barely two years ago,” a Big 12 athletic director said. “What we’re trying to do is just change our position. You’re either growing and you’re moving to try to best position yourself, or you’re vulnerable. For the first time, the Big 12 is moving in the other direction. If I had to choose which side of that I’d rather be on, I’d rather be on this one, for sure.”
KLIAVKOFF’S CONFIDENCE IN his conference membership at media day was strikingly similar to the comments made by then-Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who in July 2021 also stood before members of the media, saying, “a lot of the motivation for realignment is no longer there.” A week later, there was a bombshell report that the Big 12’s biggest brands wanted out.
“If you think back when we lost Oklahoma and Texas, the Pac-12 could have been as aggressive as we were,” a Big 12 source said. “Texas Tech would have gone to the Pac-12 in 10 seconds if they would have given them a call, and they never did. They had chances long before this to take control, and they didn’t.”
In August 2021, Kliavkoff and Bowlsby met at an undisclosed location to discuss the possibility of a merger, or some sort of partnership, but it never materialized.
“They were in the driver’s seat,” said Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt. “There was a lot of speculation about the future of the Big 12. They were not in a growth mindset. Insert Brett Yormark. It’s full-tilt forward.” When Yormark was hired after Bowlsby stepped down in 2022, his message rang loud and clear.
“The Big 12 is open for business,” Yormark said in his introductory news conference at Big 12 media days last year.
“We all chuckled and laughed about that,” Hocutt said, “but there’s more behind that statement than people understood. It hasn’t changed from the day he was announced as our commissioner.”
Yormark wasn’t just referring to conference realignment. His first priority was getting the league’s TV deal done. Yormark landed a six-year, $2.2 billion television deal with ESPN and Fox that runs through 2031. The Big 12 opened its negotiations early and completed its agreement before the Pac-12, even though the Pac-12’s current television deal ends a year earlier. Although it’s impossible to untangle previous realignment from what Colorado ultimately chose to do, the Pac-12’s slow process in negotiating its own media rights deal undoubtedly weighed heavily into the process. “It’s not like Brett’s been quiet about hinting and taking a Pac-12 school,” a source said. “He’s put some stuff out there on purpose.”
Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades told ESPN the Big 12 was able to flip its position in the national landscape because two things happened: The conference announced in September 2021 that it would add Houston, UCF, Cincinnati and BYU, which helped change the narrative that the league was falling apart, and Yormark was able to negotiate a win-win media rights deal for the league and its media partners before going to market — and before the Pac-12.
“We had no leverage because we couldn’t go to the open market,” Rhoades said. “The fact we were able to get that done … for us, goal No. 1 was stability. Goal No. 2 was finances. Make no mistake, that was the order of priority. If we don’t get that done, this is a completely different story.”
With the television deal done, and an early exit plan for OU and Texas in place — plus the assurances of four new schools joining the league this summer — the Big 12 decision-makers began a deeper dive into the possibility of adding more teams. They discussed UConn, Pac-12 schools, and even the scenario of adding Gonzaga for basketball only.
At the spring Fiesta Summit in Scottsdale, Arizona, where multiple conferences gather annually for league meetings, representatives from Endeavor presented Big 12 decision-makers with slides of various schools, including Arizona and Arizona State, and valuations of various television scenarios.
School officials from Colorado met with Big 12 officials at a neutral site in early May, a source told ESPN’s Pete Thamel. Colorado had expressed interest and emerged as a legitimate candidate so much so that athletic directors and administrators at the Fiesta Summit joked about it over beers at the resort pool after days during which the Big 12 and Pac-12 held meetings across the hall from each other.
“Colorado was the one that was consistent,” another Big 12 source said. “It was directly between Brett and Rick George the majority of it throughout the process.”
Meanwhile, the Pac-12 media deal remained slow to materialize.
“I think in May was when [it became], ‘OK, Colorado’s really nervous and probably the most interesting,'” a source said.
When asked to describe Yormark’s approach behind the scenes, one Big 12 source said, “aggressive, and I’m not apologizing for it.”
On June 2, after Big 12 spring meetings in West Virginia, Yormark publicly touted the conference as having “a plan” when it comes to expansion. The athletic directors told Yormark at that meeting that if the league was going to add another school, their priority was a Power 5 program. The Big 12’s presidents and chancellors met after the athletic directors and gave Yormark the approval “that if Brett could make Colorado happen, he had the permission from the presidents to do it.”
“Since then,” another league source said, “that’s what he’s been working on.”
ACCORDING TO BIG 12 sources, there was “a very close circle” that knew Colorado’s intentions about three weeks before it happened and discussions turned to action about 10 days before the move became official.
On July 19, just two days before Kliavkoff would speak at media day, Colorado chancellor Phil DiStefano told The Denver Post he had not had any direct negotiations with Yormark or the Big 12. He said the school’s goal “is to stay within the Pac-12 and have a media deal coming up shortly. That’s our goal. And I believe the presidents and chancellors of the Pac-12 are together on that.”
They were.
On the eve of the Pac-12’s media day, Kliavkoff met with the league’s athletic directors for what was a lengthy, substantive update, according to sources with knowledge of the discussion. Multiple sources said the Pac-12 presidents respect Kliavkoff, and the athletic directors haven’t been involved much in the expansion discussion. In Las Vegas, they were told the same timeline the university presidents and chancellors had unanimously agreed on in June.
“Yes, there were warnings,” one Pac-12 source said. “Yes, everybody in America knew they were considering this. But I also believe the decision-makers truly believed the word coming out of [Colorado] that they had until the end of [July] to make that decision, and [Colorado] did it earlier than what they said they were going to do.”
In an exclusive interview with ESPN immediately after his remarks at media day, Kliavkoff pointed to DiStefano’s comments in the Post as the source of his confidence. Kliavkoff declined further comment for this article. What Kliavkoff didn’t address was DiStefano’s comments about expecting an update on the media rights deal on the eve of media day. “You could tell he was putting them on a different timeline publicly,” a Pac-12 source said. “As soon as he did that, I was like, ‘Oh they’re gone.'”
Through a university spokesman, DiStefano issued the following statement on Aug. 3: “We disagree with the assertions that have been stated. The main reason we made the decision when we did was because it’s in the best interest of the university, CU athletics, and most importantly, our student athletes. We look forward to starting our final season in the Pac-12 and are excited about our future in the Big 12 beginning in 2024.”
At the conference’s media leading into what would be their final season, Colorado AD George bolted early without comment, further fueling the speculation that the university would soon follow him out the door.
A week later, DiStefano appeared on camera in the board of regents’ videoconference, sitting next to the school’s athletic director as it was made public that the Big 12 “has offered admittance to the University of Colorado Boulder as part of conference expansion.”
“I think there’s a misconception at least from some schools that Brett is ruthless in his pursuit, and I just don’t think it’s that way at all,” said TCU athletic director Jeremiah Donati. “Brett’s set a vision and a platform for our conference that’s incredibly attractive, candidly, and I think that’s ultimately why Colorado decided to come back to the Big 12.”
OF ALL THE schools engulfed in all of the speculation, Colorado always made the most sense because of its previous ties to the Big 12, where it was a member from 1996 to 2010, and in the Big Eight for 47 years before that. The idea gained further traction with the hire of coach Deion Sanders, who has yet to coach his first game with the Buffaloes but has already reignited interest in a program that has had no bowl wins and just two winning football seasons since joining the Pac-12 in 2011.
“Quite frankly, Deion was pushing for it,” one Big 12 head coach said.
George said he spoke with all of his head coaches about the potential move, but also acknowledged that playing in the Big 12 will align with how Sanders is recruiting.
“I will tell you there’s tremendous benefits for being in the Big 12 for the direction that Coach Prime is going as it relates to recruiting,” George said. “Being able to play in Orlando against UCF, where he’s recruited very heavily. The state of Texas has always been a priority for us, and now playing four teams in that area. … I tried to include all of our coaches in this, and Coach Prime certainly and I had conversations about this, as well as I did with other coaches.”
George, who declined to comment for this story beyond his public remarks from a July 27 news conference on campus, insisted that Colorado’s decision “wasn’t about” any failures by Kliavkoff or frustrations with a lack of a media rights deal.
“George Kliavkoff is doing as good a job as he can do, and he works his ass off and works tirelessly for the members of the Pac-12,” George said. “But this decision wasn’t about that. It was about this, and that’s the Big 12 Conference and what’s best for CU and CU athletics and our student-athletes, and that’s what we made this decision based on.”
Colorado’s departure will coincide with the end of the Pac-12’s television deal, which expires after the 2023-24 season, meaning Colorado won’t have to pay an exit fee. Colorado is expected to join the Big 12 at a pro rata basis, which is an average of $31.7 million in television revenue per year over the course of the league’s new deal starting in 2025.
“Was money a part of it? Absolutely,” one Big 12 athletic director said. “But [George] saw a better direction with the Big 12 than what was happening in the Pac-12. It was more than just the money.”
George agreed the move was “not just based on money or finances.”
“Certainly, revenue and expenses are part of the equation,” George said. “We have looked at the cost that we will be incurring from team travel in the Big 12, as well as the initial rebranding. And when we consider the Big 12 revenue, we believe it’s a great win for the University of Colorado. The revenue was not just from the media deal — and there’s a lot of talk about that — but from other revenue streams, and we believe that’s positive.
“We believe the benefits far outweigh the costs for the move into the Big 12 Conference,” he added. “Because college sports evolve, so do conferences. It’s our responsibility to put CU in a position of strength for the future. And as an AD, conference realignment is always something that we’re looking at. I feel strongly that today’s decision positions the University of Colorado for years to come.”
The question remains, though, how the move will position everyone else.
The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.
The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn’t mean Texas isn’t a playoff team — it just hasn’t proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it’s a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn’t if they are a real playoff team. They’ve got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won’t do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.
The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t face either of those teams during the regular season — which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they’d be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions — Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.
The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday’s win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones’ best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday’s home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.
The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation’s attention for all the wrong reasons — the focus was on Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs’ road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don’t clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it’s going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas …
The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn’t currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Victoria Matiash
Managers who successfully pad their rosters with underappreciated overachievers — either in later rounds or via the free agent market post-draft, while avoiding those who fall flat — are always in superior shape contending for a championship. Sniffing out such characters is the trick, of course, with skill, opportunity, health and career trajectory all playing factors in determining if a player is in position to fly unpredictably high.
We’re taking a slightly different tack this year in looking beyond a player’s fantasy potential in respect to their preseason ranking. While still acknowledging that juxtaposition, approximated Average Draft Position (ADP), plus less tangible elements like reputation and name value are also being considered. We probably don’t need to tell you that Mitch Marner is more treasured than his current No. 52 forward ranking suggests. Instead, this is a forum to discuss sleeper candidates who might not attract sufficient attention otherwise.
One last caveat: No rookies here. While some first-year players — Jimmy Snuggerud, Rutger McGroarty, Sam Rinzel, etc. — undoubtedly qualify, they’re receiving fantasy attention all their own elsewhere. The following dozen have at least one full season under their pads, along with a small handful of those who project to disappoint, relative to where they might be selected in respective drafts.
Sleepers
Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks (No. 23 goaltender)
With John Gibson taking over Detroit’s crease, the 25-year-old emerges as the undisputed top dog for a Ducks team on the rise. Offseason additions Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund make this club, including rising stars Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, better, as does having a successful coach like Joel Quenneville behind the bench. The addition of new assistant Ryan McGill isn’t to be underappreciated either. With more than 25 years experience, McGill possesses a well-earned reputation for improving teams defensively. Music to any goaltender’s ears. Dostal will put up his best personal numbers yet while starting at least 55 games in 2025-26. Grab this emerging gem as your No. 3 netminder and reap the fantasy rewards.
Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings (No. 230 forward)
There are worse gigs than skating on a scoring line and top power play with a center such as future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar. Just ask the former Flyer/Flame/Canuck, who contributed five goals and 12 assists in 22 games after being traded to the Kings last winter. We’re not suggesting the enigmatic forward will ever amass 74 points again, including 39 goals, like he did in Vancouver his first NHL season. But 65-plus points alongside Kopitar and Adrian Kempe is not too great an ask, with a hearty portion of them on the power play. Just ensure that’s where Kuzmenko is situated to start the season.
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Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets (No. 155 forward)
A favorite sleeper candidate heading into 2025-26, the 23-year-old will be afforded the ripe opportunity to break out in a big way. Entering his fourth full campaign, and with Nikolaj Ehlers gone to Carolina, Perfetti is pegged to again compete on a second scoring line and, extra promisingly, be full-time on a top power play with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Anticipate more than 65 points this season.
Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 138 forward)
If — and this is a Scotiabank Arena-sized if — the former Utah skater can stick on a top Leafs line in Marner’s old spot, as projected early on, he’ll be in for a career year. Anyone who gets the chance to compete with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on a regular basis is going to put up points, period. Substantially more than the 17 goals and 40 assists Maccelli collected two years ago with the Coyotes. If not, a gig on a second unit with John Tavares and William Nylander wouldn’t be too crummy either. All told, the 24-year-old should feel fairly pumped about his ceiling in Toronto.
Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (No. 117 forward)
Following last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Barzal feels good again, mentally and physically. Good and charged up to make an impact after logging only 20 points in 30 contests. At full health, and in his prime, Barzal boasts point-per-game potential. Like when he scored 80 in 80 only two seasons ago.
Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers (No. 87 forward)
Rumored to be in the mix for the Rangers’ captaincy until J.T. Miller captured the honor, the third-year skater is being saddled with extra lofty hopes. As in 30-goal/30-assist expectations. Toss in a good sum of shots and exceptional number of hits — he had 300 this past season — and the 23-year-old is poised to make a whole lot of fantasy noise in deeper, balanced leagues. A full-time gig on a scoring line with Miller and Mika Zibanejad, along with secondary power-play minutes, bolsters such promise. Cuylle isn’t yet a household name outside of New York. He will be soon enough.
Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 106 forward)
Some fresh slates feel more needed than others. As is the case with Zegras and what strikes as a rather necessary move from Anaheim to Philadelphia. While a slot on the second scoring line and top power play appears the worst-case scenario, a gig on the No. 1 unit with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny might also be in the cards. More so than with other teams, how new coach Rick Tocchet massages his lineup in camp should be monitored closely. Particularly in how Zegras is utilized. Still only 24 years old, this is a player with 70-point potential. In fresh digs, he’s positioned to provide a spark in deeper leagues.
Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins (No. 136 forward)
Somewhat quietly, the 27-year-old winger pitched in 57 points in 77 games with the Bruins this past season. Not coincidentally, an overwhelming fraction of them — 22 in the last 14 contests — came after Brad Marchand departed for Florida. A full campaign on a top forward unit and power play with center Elias Lindholm and, more significantly, David Pastrnak, should easily boost Geekie near the 70-point plateau.
JJ Peterka, Utah Mammoth (No. 79 forward)
Out of Buffalo, a spot on a scoring line with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, and power play alongside Clayton Keller, should see Peterka notch 70 points, minimum, for the first time in his young career. This young skater also likes to shoot on net. After his breakup with the Sabres, the 23-year-old is now the highest-paid forward with his new club. Time to earn that money.
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Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights (No. 148 forward)
Mostly on a top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Barbashev averaged 0.73 points/games this past season. Sub in newbie Marner for Mark Stone — if that’s how it does indeed unfold in Vegas — and Barbashev could be in for a slight boost in the production department. The solid forward also likes to throw his body around, to the benefit of fantasy managers in leagues that reward hits.
Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes (No. 51 defenseman)
All he did was score more power-play points (27) than anyone not named Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, and Quinn Hughes, plus another 18 at even-strength, in only 70 games. Projected to replicate that showing as Carolina’s top unit anchor once more, Gostisbehere merits much greater appreciation in leagues that prize production with the extra skater.
Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (No. 74 defenseman)
Perennially underrated as a fantasy performer, the former Duck pounded out 36 points in only 51 contests after joining the Blues in December. Nearing 500 career points, the top power-play anchor will bang out another 45 in his first full season with St. Louis. For those who appreciate extra-incentivized skaters, know that Fowler is also in the final year of his current contract.
See also:
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Jackson Blake, F, Hurricanes
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Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights
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Busts
Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks (No. 38 forward)
Chicago’s franchise player needs to be surrounded by a stronger supporting cast. Until then, the 2024 Calder winner won’t break the point-per-game barrier. With Bedard entering the final year of his entry-level deal, Blackhawks management should start making tangible improvements to this roster asap.
Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators (No. 24 forward)
The former Lightning legend scored just 53 points in Nashville last year. While we don’t anticipate a repeat of that uncharacteristically lousy performance from the career better-than-point/game player, he isn’t likely to pitch in upwards of 75 either. So the No. 20 ranking feels off-base.
Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens (No. 18 defenseman)
In Lane Hutson‘s Calder-winning shadow, Matheson saw his production drop from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 this past season. Now Noah Dobson is aboard, so how many power-play points can we now expect from the 31-year-old? Answer: Not nearly enough to merit this high ranking.
Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche (No. 53 defenseman)
Joining his fourth NHL team in 22 years, the veteran defender will enjoy another legit shot at winning his first Stanley Cup. So we don’t expect the 40-year-old to complain much about taking a blue-line backseat to the likes of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard etc. After potting 61 points in Carolina in 2022-23, Burns eked out only 29 this past season. As a projection, that sum feels like his ceiling with the Avalanche.
Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals (No. 12 goaltender)
Making his way over from Vegas, Thompson served as a happy fantasy surprise for many in 2024-25. The concern now is can he come close to repeating his sparkling 31-6-6 record (most likely no) for a Capitals team endeavoring to replicate their 111-point campaign? (Also probably not happening.) Thompson’s .910 SV% suggests a lot else went right in securing himself such an impressive winning percentage. He’s a good fantasy goalie, no question, but not our first choice for a No. 2 in reasonable-sized leagues.
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Jake Trotter
Oklahoma quarterback and early Heisman Trophy front-runner John Mateer will miss about a month after suffering a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand in Saturday’s win over Auburn, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
The Sooners announced Mateer will undergo surgery, but did not disclose details of the injury or a timeline for return.
Mateer’s injury came in the first quarter of the 24-17 win, the seventh-ranked Sooners’ second victory over an AP Top 25 team this season.
Mateer is scheduled to undergo the surgery Wednesday in Los Angeles. Dr. Steven Shin will perform the surgery, sources told Thamel. Shin, considered one of the country’s leading hand/wrist surgeons, has worked on Drew Brees, Stephen Curry and Mike Trout.
“After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future,” coach Brent Venables said. “He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.”
Mateer’s injury is a massive blow to the Sooners, who are off to a 4-0 start with wins over Michigan and Auburn.
Mateer, who transferred in from Washington State during the offseason, has been the catalyst behind Oklahoma’s stark turnaround after a 6-7 finish in 2024.
He has completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 and six touchdowns. He’s also the Sooners’ leading rusher with 190 yards and five more touchdowns. Mateer ranks second nationally with 351.3 yards of total offense per game.
Despite suffering the injury early against Auburn, he finished the game and passed for 271 yards.
With his hot start, Mateer had emerged as the favorite to win the Heisman at +750, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+650) is the new favorite as of Tuesday.
Venables said sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will start Oklahoma’s next game against Kent State on Oct. 4 Hawkins started four games for the Sooners last season, passing for 783 yards and three touchdowns.
Oklahoma faces rival Texas on Oct. 11.
After a trip to South Carolina, the Sooners close out the regular season with five straight games against ranked opponents: No. 13 Ole Miss, at No. 15 Tennessee, at No. 18 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU.
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