MLB Power Rankings: Where every team stands post-trade deadline
A fair number of MLB teams look a little different than they did just a week ago.
With the 2023 trade deadline behind us, there are some faces in new places — and others in familiar ones, most notably Justin Verlander, who returned to Houston in the biggest deal on deadline day Tuesday. Mets teammate Max Scherzer fits the former category, as he was traded to Houston’s American League West rival Texas prior to Verlander’s move.
With all the movement over the past week, where does your favorite team stand now? And how was it impacted by this year’s deadline?
Our expert panel has ranked every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 17 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 69-37
Previous ranking: 1
There was speculation the Braves might trade for a starter, which made sense because the rotation hasn’t been anything special the past two months, with a 4.82 ERA in June and 4.59 in July. Instead, Atlanta just added around the edges with relievers Brad Hand and Pierce Johnson and infielder Nicky Lopez and took a flier on Yonny Chirinos, who allowed four runs in 3⅔ innings in his Braves debut. Instead, the team will rely on Max Fried, who could rejoin the rotation Friday, and Spencer Strider to get into a more consistent groove. Strider is still racking up the strikeouts — he just passed 200 — but has a 4.23 ERA over his past 14 starts. — Schoenfield
Record: 66-42
Previous ranking: 2
The new balanced schedule was supposed to benefit the American League East more than any other division, mostly because the teams wouldn’t have to play each other as often. Indeed, the fact that all five teams were over .500 entering August suggests this has been the case. But is the new slate actually working against the Orioles? Maybe, if you want to read into Baltimore’s remarkable intradivision record. After beating the Blue Jays on Tuesday, the O’s improved to 7-1 against Toronto this season. Meanwhile, they’re 6-3 against the Rays, 3-3 against Boston and 7-6 against the Yankees, whom they will not see again during the regular season. — Doolittle
Record: 62-46
Previous ranking: 5
If they didn’t win the winter, they might have at least won the trade deadline. Or perhaps they won both, as the Rangers continue to show a flair for stealing headlines. With Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery now in the fold, there’s less pressure on Nathan Eovaldi to return from his injury and other starters can move down a notch in the rotation. Texas probably needed the energy boost the new players should bring, considering it got swept by San Diego over the weekend on the heels of losing a series to the Astros before that. Holding off Houston for the division crown might come down to the two aforementioned pitching additions. The race in the AL West is just getting started. — Rogers
Record: 62-47
Previous ranking: 6
Baseball is a funny game, in the best way possible. Framber Valdez was the AL’s leading Cy Young contender into June and had staked a claim as the best right-now starter in the majors. After that, though he remained solid, his numbers ebbed. Over eight starts, he went 2-3 with a 5.17 ERA. Gerrit Cole of the Yankees probably seized the front-runner role in the Cy Young chase during that window. And when the Astros swung big at the deadline and reacquired future Hall of Famer Verlander, it looked like Valdez had once again become a quality No. 2 starter. Not so fast. In the immediate aftermath of the Verlander news, all Valdez did was go out and no-hit the Guardians on 93 pitches. So much for the slump. — Doolittle
Record: 66-45
Previous ranking: 4
Perhaps no player has mirrored the trajectory of the Rays’ season more than Randy Arozarena. But while the Rays have shown signs of emerging from their midseason funk, Arozarena’s trend line continues to point down. After starring in the WBC, Arozarena looked like an MVP candidate over the first couple of months of the season. Through the end of May, he was hitting .297/.407/.513 and was on pace to top 30 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBIs. Since then, Arozarena has hit .209/.310/.352. There is plenty of time for Arozarena to rediscover his early-season form. If the Rays are to get where they want to go, his ability to do so is crucial. — Doolittle
Record: 61-45
Previous ranking: 3
The Dodgers’ trade deadline can’t be summed up as anything other than a disappointment. They wanted Nolan Arenado, but he ultimately wasn’t made available. They thought they might land Verlander, but then the Astros swooped in. They had a deal in place for Eduardo Rodriguez, but he used his limited no-trade clause to nix it. In the end, the Dodgers had to settle for depth: two platoon infielders (Enrique Hernandez and Amed Rosario), one struggling starter (Lance Lynn), one bullpen arm (Joe Kelly) and one hybrid pitcher (Ryan Yarbrough). The Dodgers hope that those additions, plus the return of Clayton Kershaw and the potential return of Walker Buehler, will make them a World Series representative within an inferior National League. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-49
Previous ranking: 7
As accomplished as George Springer has been during his career, he has always tended toward streakiness. In terms of bad streaks, he has never been deeper than the one he’s in right now. After going 0-for-4 against the Orioles on Tuesday — and before getting a hit on Wednesday — Springer had gone 31 straight at-bats without a hit, the longest hitless streak of his career. Springer is 4-for-55 in his past 14 contests and, as a result, his OPS+ has plummeted to 95, the first time in his career he has been below league average. His worst end-of-season figure thus far is the 114 OPS+ he posted in 2018. — Doolittle
Record: 58-50
Previous ranking: 8
The Phillies acquired starter Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers. The veteran right-hander, who was the Tigers’ All-Star rep this season, has been on a roll of late with a 2.50 ERA over his past seven starts. “I feel like I’ve been throwing the best ball I’ve ever thrown,” he told reporters. “I feel like there is still room to grow and I’m getting better. Hopefully when I get to Philly, I can apply that and they get the benefits of that.”
Lorenzen has both started and relieved during his career and Cristopher Sanchez has done a nice job as Philly’s fifth starter with a 2.66 ERA in nine starts (although somehow with no victories), so we’ll see how the Phillies use Lorenzen. Sanchez has certainly not pitched himself out of the rotation, but maybe he goes to the bullpen or perhaps the team goes with a six-man rotation. — Schoenfield
Record: 60-49
Previous ranking: 13
The Giants did next to nothing before the trade deadline, merely acquiring a right-handed-hitting outfielder — AJ Pollock, batting .173 this season — who would have probably been designated for assignment anyway. But there weren’t that many high-impact players available, and many of the others would not have represented clear upgrades. The Giants don’t have much in the way of high-end talent, but they sure are deep. And though they didn’t acquire anybody who would necessarily put them over the top, preserving that depth should serve them well over the next two months.
“Looking at the National League, I don’t really see a seismic shift based on the trades,” Giants President Farhan Zaidi said. “A lot of it’s going to just come down to who plays the best down the stretch.” — Gonzalez
Record: 57-51
Previous ranking: 10
Starting pitching will be the key for the Red Sox down the stretch. To put it another way, their rotation will be the unit most under scrutiny after the front office failed to add a starting pitcher before the deadline. While Boston can hope Trevor Story‘s looming return will be the upgrade the lineup needed, the rotation will be hoping for good injury news over the season’s final weeks. Tanner Houck is scheduled to start a rehab stint this weekend, while Chris Sale has already begun one of his own. Garrett Whitlock also isn’t far away from testing his arm against minor league competition. If things go well, Boston’s approach at the deadline will look less like an oversight and more like foresight. — Doolittle
Record: 58-51
Previous ranking: 9
A bad loss Wednesday to the Nationals added to a rough week for the Brewers after they got swept by Atlanta over the weekend. Milwaukee’s vaunted pitching staff gave up a total of 29 runs in the three losses, but that might say more about the Braves than the Brewers. Still, the brutal week on the mound led to a 7.16 ERA, highest in baseball in that span. Opposing hitters posted a .311 batting average during that time. The good news is Milwaukee had an under-the-radar good trade deadline, adding lefty Andrew Chafin along with hitters Carlos Santana and Mark Canha. All three should be factors in the NL Central race down the stretch. — Rogers
Record: 59-51
Previous ranking: 15
A minor addition to the bullpen is all Cincinnati decided to do at the deadline, mostly because it’s getting Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo back from injury soon. Besides, the Reds are a year ahead of schedule, so whatever they do in the stretch run is gravy. Either way, they could use a better pitching performance than the one they received from Ben Lively on Tuesday. He gave up 13 runs on 13 hits in just four innings. That’s the most earned runs given up by a Reds pitcher since ERA became an official stat in 1913. The point is, the Reds are going to have to hit their way to the playoffs — unless Greene and Lodolo are the second-half answers to their mound woes. — Rogers
Record: 57-52
Previous ranking: 14
The D-backs slogged through an 8-16 record in July, going from two games up in the NL West at the start of the month to 3½ back by the end of it. They’re hoping reinforcements can provide a much-needed boost. The D-backs added right-handed-hitting outfielder Tommy Pham to help balance out the lineup and acquired closer Paul Sewald to fortify the back end of their bullpen. But they didn’t add a starting pitcher. And they certainly needed one, especially with Zach Davies and Tommy Henry on the injured list.
“That market was really tough,” GM Mike Hazen said. “There weren’t a lot of starters out there available. Some of the starters that were out there got held, some got traded. We didn’t end up acquiring one. We were willing to overpay, in our mind, for a starter.” — Gonzalez
Record: 56-53
Previous ranking: 17
You might have heard by now, but the Angels didn’t just decide to keep Shohei Ohtani — they decided to go all-in with Shohei Ohtani. In a trade deadline that was generally devoid of action, the Angels — an unlikely playoff team, with Mike Trout still injured and Ohtani on the precipice of free agency — stood out for their action.
Over the past month or so, they added a first baseman (C.J. Cron), two other infielders (Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar), an outfielder (Randal Grichuk), a starting pitcher (Lucas Giolito) and two relievers (Reynaldo Lopez and Dominic Leone). All of them cost prospects from a system that was already thin. They were added in an effort to win in what could be Ohtani’s final season in Anaheim — and perhaps to convince him to stay. Now we’ll get to find out if it works. — Gonzalez
Record: 56-52
Previous ranking: 11
The Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992. Expect to hear that factoid a lot over the next few weeks unless New York is able to get on a roll soon. For one thing, it is one of the most remarkable streaks in sports. For another, the Yankees’ passive approach at the deadline will come under increasing scrutiny if things go south from here. Most of their key players have underperformed projections, with Gerrit Cole being the notable exception. Aaron Judge has also been on point when he has been in the lineup, something that is essential to the Yankees’ chances down the stretch. That much was evident during his absence — the offense more resembled a dead ball era Highlanders attack than what we’ve come to expect from the 21st century Bronx Bombers. — Doolittle
Record: 58-51
Previous ranking: 16
It was a busy week for the Marlins as they added relievers David Robertson and Jorge Lopez and then first baseman Josh Bell, third baseman Jake Burger and pitcher Ryan Weathers on deadline day. Gone are Garrett Cooper, Jean Segura, Dylan Floro and some interesting prospects in Jake Eder, former first-round pick Kahlil Watson, Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez. The switch-hitting Bell will help balance a lineup that has been too right-handed while Burger provides power (25 home runs), albeit with a low OBP (.279). They should make the Marlins offense a little better. Unfortunately, Robertson blew the save in Tuesday’s loss to the Phillies, allowing three runs in the ninth after Sandy Alcantara had pitched eight scoreless innings. — Schoenfield
Record: 55-53
Previous ranking: 21
A winning surge right before the trade deadline changed the Cubs’ fortunes — they held onto Cody Bellinger instead of trading him, and thus they have a shot at the postseason in the NL. Their one deadline addition, Jeimer Candelario, is playing first base for the first time in three years but Chicago simply wants his bat in the lineup. He became the first Cub since at least 1900 to have four hits in his debut, after playing for another team in the same season, during Tuesday’s 20-9 rout of the Reds. Six different Chicago players homered in that game, tying a franchise record. The Cubs’ offense isn’t the problem right now. Starters Marcus Stroman — who was placed on the 15-day IL on Wednesday — and Drew Smyly need to find their game or adding at the deadline might turn out to be a mistake. — Rogers
Record: 54-55
Previous ranking: 18
There were rumors at various points last week that the Padres might essentially punt on 2023 by trading Blake Snell and Josh Hader. Then they swept the first-place Rangers and instead GM A.J. Preller augmented the roster, acquiring a new DH platoon in Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper, a starter in Rich Hill and a back-end bullpen member in Scott Barlow.
The approach wasn’t as shortsighted as it might appear. The Padres have a favorable run differential, grade out well defensively, have been pitching well for most of the season and have been done in by what might be considered fluky events, most notably a poor record in one-run games, an even worse mark in extra innings and a brutal performance with runners in scoring position. They believe they’re a legitimately good team. Now they have to prove it. — Gonzalez
Record: 56-52
Previous ranking: 19
The Mariners went 17-9 in July to climb back into the playoff race but traded away closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks, believing they have enough depth with the likes of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash & Co. Infielder Josh Rojas came over in the deal, leading to the departure of Kolten Wong, who never got his bat going. Outfielder Dominic Canzone is a lefty hitter with contact skills and the Mariners look like they’ll give him a chance to play. That could mean less playing time for Teoscar Hernandez, who leads the majors in strikeouts. — Schoenfield
Record: 55-54
Previous ranking: 12
Last year’s trade deadline did not work out for the Twins. It’s more obvious now than it was then that they would be better off with the prospects they traded (Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer) than the veterans they acquired (since-traded reliever Jorge Lopez and injured starter Tyler Mahle). Did that unfortunate outcome impact the Twins’ 2023 deadline approach? Because Minnesota did nothing at the deadline, it’s a reasonable theory, though probably not what actually happened.
GM Derek Falvey told reporters, “We see the internal guys as being as good or better than what we could access at that time.” We’ll find out if Falvey’s assessment is right, but one thing to keep in mind: The trade deadline, for all the attention it receives, is not the make-or-break moment for a franchise. If the Twins are able to get into the playoffs and play competitive baseball once there, we’ll look at Falvey’s words as prescience. — Doolittle
Record: 53-56
Previous ranking: 20
Cleveland made some interesting deals, leading with sending Aaron Civale to the Rays for Triple-A first baseman Kyle Manzardo. That now means the entire Opening Day rotation is either injured or with another team — and the Guardians are still hanging with the Twins. They also traded Josh Bell to the Marlins for Kahlil Watson, a shortstop who was a first-round pick in 2022. He hasn’t torn it up in the minors but has the tools and upside to take a gamble on. The Guardians also called up shortstop Brayan Rocchio, the team’s top prospect, and he should get an extended run the final two months. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-57
Previous ranking: 22
One thing’s for sure: The trade deadline would have been a lot less interesting without the Mets. With so many teams on the bubble deciding to play it safe and not make any big moves, the Mets traded away Scherzer, Verlander, Robertson, Canha and Pham. They included a pile of cash in the Scherzer and Verlander deals, essentially buying prospects from the Rangers and Astros.
The biggest name there: Shortstop Luisangel Acuna, the younger brother of Ronald Acuna Jr. Luisangel was hitting .315/.377/.453 at Double-A with seven home runs and 42 steals, obviously lacking his brother’s power. With Francisco Lindor at shortstop, plus Ronny Mauricio in Triple-A (although he’s played some second base and left field), it will be interesting to see what the Mets do with Acuna. Some speculate on a move to center field, although he remained at shortstop in his first game with Binghamton. — Schoenfield
Record: 48-61
Previous ranking: 23
The Cardinals will play out the final two months of the season doing something they rarely do: auditioning players for next season. Moving on from Montgomery, Jordan Hicks and Jack Flaherty means openings for others, such as Matthew Liberatore, who should get some meaningful developmental innings. Speaking of pitching, lefty Steven Matz has quietly put together a nice run. He posted a 2.17 ERA while giving up just 21 hits in 29 innings during July. Teams had a hard time squaring him up, leading to a .197 opposing batting average during that time frame. Matz is signed through 2025, so the Cardinals could use that kind of production moving forward. — Rogers
Record: 48-59
Previous ranking: 25
Pittsburgh produced back-to-back series wins last week, taking down two teams vying for playoff positions: San Diego and Philadelphia. The Pirates pitched as well as they have in some time. Against two good hitting teams, they only gave up 37 hits in 46 total innings over a seven-day span ending on Wednesday. Johan Oviedo threw the best of the bunch, going seven innings against the Tigers on Tuesday while allowing just one run on six hits. Mitch Keller also threw well last week, reminding the league of what Pittsburgh did early in the season — before its season regressed. — Rogers
Record: 48-60
Previous ranking: 24
There is a lot to ponder around Rodriguez’s decision to exercise a no-trade option. E-Rod told reporters that he wanted to stay closer to family on the East Coast than would have been possible with the West Coast Dodgers. Rodriguez’s contract allows him to veto deals to 10 teams, one being L.A. It also allows him to opt out of the final three years and $49 million of his deal with the Tigers after this season. Should the Tigers have tried to deal Rodriguez to an East Coast contender like the Orioles or Red Sox? (Of course, they may have tried.) Will the fact that they tried to trade him at all cement his decision to exercise the opt out? We’ll find out.
Meanwhile, on the field, after pitching like a Cy Young candidate early in the season, Rodriguez has been a more tepid 2-3 since then with a 4.91 ERA, a figure inflated by some bad BABIP luck. Whatever happens, one thing hasn’t changed since E-Rod signed his contract with Detroit: The Tigers’ future rotation looks a lot better with him in it than without him. — Doolittle
Record: 43-66
Previous ranking: 26
By most accounts, the White Sox did well in their trade deadline deals, as they said goodbye to the current iteration of the team that won just two playoff games after an extended rebuild. Of course, the same could be said of their deadline deals the last time they traded away veterans — and that obviously didn’t work out the way they hoped. The only question left for the White Sox this season is if ownership will look to a new front office to take over baseball decisions. It’s not likely to happen, so the organization will move forward with an unclear future. One note from the deadline: There was a lot of chatter about pitcher Dylan Cease. He didn’t move this week, but he could this offseason. — Rogers
Record: 46-63
Previous ranking: 27
As expected, the Nationals traded Jeimer Candelario, although they ended up keeping outfielder Lane Thomas. In return for Candelario, they acquired High-A shortstop Kevin Made and lefty starter DJ Herz from the Cubs. Made was a high-profile international signing a few years ago who has struggled to hit in the minors, although he has pretty good contact skills and the ability to remain at shortstop. Herz is in Double-A where he’s racked up high totals of both strikeouts and walks and looks like a probable bullpen arm. Neither are certain big leaguers but both have some potential, so it’s a solid return for a two-month rental. — Schoenfield
Record: 42-66
Previous ranking: 28
The Rockies — in what some would consider a surprising turn of events — actually did what was expected of them before the trade deadline, shedding five would-be free agents in C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Mike Moustakas, Pierce Johnson and Brad Hand. They yielded seven pitching prospects. Now the Rockies need to figure out how to develop them. — Gonzalez
Record: 34-75
Previous ranking: 29
There were rumors of a Salvador Perez trade to the Marlins, and Perez reportedly was open to a deal to Miami, where he has an offseason home, but no deal was put together. That left the Royals with a couple of small trades: Nicky Lopez to the Braves, Scott Barlow to the Padres and Ryan Yarbrough to the Dodgers. On the field, the Royals won their fourth in a row on Tuesday against the Mets, thanks to a walk-off balk. The first win came on Bobby Witt Jr.’s walk-off grand slam for an 8-5 win over the Twins on Friday. — Schoenfield
Record: 30-79
Previous ranking: 30
The A’s were clearly in “unload” mode leading up to the trade deadline, but they wound up trading away only three veteran players in a span of 12 days. The reason is quite simple: The A’s don’t have many players that other teams want. There’s a reason they’re last in winning percentage, run-differential, OPS, ERA and, of course, our Power Rankings. — Gonzalez
We’re down to the final days of the 2025 regular season and in for some exciting baseball, as there are still quite a number of teams that have something to play for — including a few who are fighting tooth and nail for their postseason lives.
The Tigers, Guardians, Mets, Reds and Diamondbacks fall into that category — and all moved significantly in our final power rankings of the season. After holding a 12½-game lead over Cleveland as recently as Aug. 25, Detroit is now a game behind the Guardians, who sit atop the AL Central after beating the Tigers Tuesday and Wednesday following what might be one of the greatest comebacks/collapses of all time over the final month of the season.
There’s a similar sentiment around the Mets, who hold a slight one-game lead over Cincinnati and Arizona for the final wild-card spot as a late losing skid highlighted their second-half woes and put their playoff hopes on the line.
Which clubs will get to keep playing into October? And which will watch their playoff aspirations come to an end?
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 25 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 96-63
Previous ranking: 1
Getting healthy on the mound is the top priority for the Brewers heading into the postseason as Jose Quintana and Brandon Woodruff are the latest pitchers to go down. With Trevor Megill, Logan Henderson and DL Hall also on the mend, it’s a good thing the Brewers have a bye and go straight to the division series. That extra time could be a difference-maker. As it stands now, it’s anyone’s guess what the roster will look like when Milwaukee hosts its first playoff game on Oct. 4, but it’s safe to say the Brewers will get at least a few of the above arms back for playoff baseball. They’ll be needed. — Rogers
Record: 93-65
Previous ranking: 2
Losing Zack Wheeler for the season was a cruel gut punch, but the Phillies’ rotation remains stout with Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo leading the charge. On the position player side, Alec Bohm returned from the injured list Sunday and Trea Turner could be activated this weekend. With Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper anchoring the lineup, and closer Jhoan Duran nailing down the ninth inning, the Phillies are a real World Series contender even without Wheeler. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 4
Shohei Ohtani reached unchartered territory in his 14th and final regular-season start Tuesday, pitching six innings while keeping the Diamondbacks scoreless. Over his past four starts, Ohtani has given up only one run in 19⅔ innings, scattering 10 hits, issuing four walks and striking out a whopping 27 batters. He is one of several Dodgers starters pitching really well heading into the playoffs. The bullpen? That’s a completely different story. After Ohtani departed Tuesday, three relievers combined to give up five runs. The Dodgers wound up losing. They’re clearly willing to stretch Ohtani a little longer, but he can’t pitch all nine innings. — Gonzalez
Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 3
The Blue Jays were the first AL team to clinch a playoff spot, but they have the misfortune of being in the same division as the team with the second-best record in the AL. As a result, winning their first division title in a decade requires a strong finish against the Red Sox and Rays to fend off the Yankees with the Jays playing without Bo Bichette (knee) and Chris Bassitt (back). Toronto activated outfielder Anthony Santander from the IL on Tuesday for the final push, designating former AL Cy Young Award finalist Alek Manoah for assignment. The pressure is on to avoid the wild-card round. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 8
The Mariners are becoming a fashionable pick for October. They’re hot and could be starting to peak on the mound, where they’ve actually underachieved this season. Not lately though. The pitching staff was fantastic during a road sweep of the Astros as George Kirby and Bryan Woo are rounding into form — that is until Woo suffered a pectoral injury. The team says he could still pitch in October as treatment continues.
Regardless, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, who has given up only one run in his last 12 innings, have also been good. Seattle has plenty of options on the mound, and that includes in the bullpen, where Andres Munoz has been stellar. The Mariners feature the AL home run king in Cal Raleigh, but it’s their pitching staff that will lead them in the postseason. — Rogers
Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 7
The Yankees clinched their postseason spot Monday. Whether they catch Toronto for the AL East title — and subsequently earn a bye to the NLDS — or settle for a wild-card spot, one question remains: Who would start a Game 3 after Max Fried and Carlos Rodon? The candidates are Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year; Cam Schlittler, who has impressed as a rookie this season; and Will Warren, who has made 32 starts. Gil and Schlittler are the favorites. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 5
A perfect storm has led to the Cubs’ longest losing skid of the season — coming right after a sweep of Pittsburgh clinched a playoff berth. Their subsequent opponents, the Reds and Mets, are playing desperate baseball in an attempt to get into the postseason themselves, leading to Cincinnati sweeping a four-game series against Chicago and New York taking the first of a three-game series.
The big concern for next week is Cade Horton. He left Tuesday’s start against the Mets because of some back/rib soreness after being ill all weekend. If it’s his last time on the mound until the postseason — assuming he’s healthy — he’ll have thrown a total of 29 pitches in two weeks, not exactly the sharpest way to enter the postseason. Offensively, the Cubs came out of their slumber against New York, putting up seven runs Tuesday, as they try to build momentum toward October. — Rogers
Record: 87-72
Previous ranking: 9
The Padres celebrated a return to the postseason after defeating the Brewers on Monday. They then beat the Brewers again Tuesday and suddenly began eyeing the NL West title once more. By that point, they trailed the Dodgers by only 1½ games. L.A. holds the tiebreaker and will also finish the season in Seattle. The Padres will finish at home against the Diamondbacks. For the Padres, winning the division would mean hosting the wild-card round at Petco Park, where they’re 49-29 this season (compared to just 38-43 on the road). It’s a big deal. — Gonzalez
Record: 87-71
Previous ranking: 10
Boston’s top three starting pitchers — Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito — give the team a real chance in a three-game wild-card series against anybody, but they need to get there first. For that to happen, the offense needs to find some life without Roman Anthony. The lineup has struggled since Anthony landed on the IL on Sept. 3 because of an oblique strain, averaging 4.7 runs in 17 games without him, but has started to pick up again more recently. The Red Sox are 9-8 in that span. — Castillo
Record: 86-72
Previous ranking: 14
The Guardians’ surge feels like a movie. On Sept. 4, they were 11 games out in the AL Central. Since then, they’ve won 17 of 19 games, the last two against the division-rival Tigers, defeating Tarik Skubal to tie them on Tuesday and cruising behind Tanner Bibee to victory on Wednesday to jump into first place for the first time since April 22. Longtime Cleveland ace Shane Bieber now pitches in Toronto while lights-out closer Emmanuel Clase is on paid leave amid a gambling probe, and yet the Guardians’ pitching staff holds a major league-best 1.58 ERA since Sept. 5. The Mariners are the only other team that even holds an ERA under 3.00. — Gonzalez
Record: 85-73
Previous ranking: 6
You probably know the numbers by now, but we might as well hash them: The Tigers held a 14-game lead in the AL Central on July 8, an 11½-game lead on Aug. 23 and a 9½-game lead on Sept. 10. At the end of last week, they still led the Guardians by a very comfortable 6½ games. Then, on Tuesday night, the Tigers fell to a surging Cleveland team despite having Tarik Skubal on the mound and found themselves not leading the division for the first time since April. It was their seventh loss in a row. Their eighth followed roughly 24 hours later. An unbelievable collapse, to say the least. — Gonzalez
Record: 84-74
Previous ranking: 11
The last week has not been kind to the Astros, especially at the plate, where they ranked near the bottom of the majors in OPS. It included three games at home against Seattle — all losses — in which they scored seven total runs. Add just a single tally in their series opener loss against the A’s on Tuesday and you can see why Houston is in danger of losing the division or even a postseason berth. The loss — again — of Yordan Alvarez obviously hurts. And perhaps the return of Isaac Paredes will give the Astros a boost, though it hasn’t yet. They need a hot finish from players such as Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena to extend their playoff streak to nine years. — Rogers
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 17
A four-game sweep of the Cubs over the weekend vaulted the Reds into the playoff picture, but they need to finish the job to make their first postseason appearance since 2020 and first in a full season since 2013. They also hold the tiebreaker with the Mets, so all Cincinnati has to do is match New York in the standings. It has become clear that the starting staff is the driving force behind anything good that happens in Cincinnati. Hunter Greene has been fantastic, as has Andrew Abbott. But despite their surge, the Reds remain just an average team at the plate, ranking in the bottom third in key offensive categories over the past couple of weeks. Some timely home runs have helped their cause. — Rogers
Record: 81-77
Previous ranking: 13
The Mets had the best record in baseball on June 13. Since then, they’ve had one of the worst — bad enough to enter the final week of the season on the edge of a historic collapse. Their fate could ultimately come down to the three rookie right-handers in their starting rotation. The Mets didn’t expect to need Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness forced the hand of president of baseball operations David Stearns. Now, the Mets are counting on them this week to help secure a spot in October. — Castillo
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 15
The wild, nausea-inducing roller-coaster ride that is this 2025 Diamondbacks season continues. Since the start of August alone, the team has navigated three losing streaks of three or more games but also eight winning streaks of three or more games. Arizona sealed its latest one Tuesday night, when it overcame a four-run deficit against the division-rival Dodgers and remained just one game back of the Mets for the final wild-card spot. That the D-backs are even at this point, in a year when they traded two of their best hitters and one of their best starters at the trade deadline, is wild. — Gonzalez
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 12
A late win streak was followed by a later losing skid, eliminating the 2023 champs from the postseason for a second consecutive season. On the docket for Rangers brass is the future of manager Bruce Bochy and how to get more out of their inconsistent offense. That has now been a two-year question, though recent injuries to Marcus Semien and Corey Seager didn’t help. Neither was having a fantastic year anyway. As they age, the team needs new leaders at the plate. Wyatt Langford has looked the part at times. At 23 years old, he should be the next Rangers star. After an offensive evaluation is completed, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s winter goal will undoubtedly be to improve their run scoring. — Rogers
Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants blew a five-run lead against St. Louis on Tuesday and were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention by the end of it. It was only 11 days prior that they stood a half-game behind the Mets for the final NL wild-card spot. San Francisco then lost nine of 11 games to miss out on the playoffs for a fourth straight year — despite being 19-12 by the end of April and acquiring Rafael Devers in the middle of June. “This year is probably the most frustrating,” Giants ace Logan Webb told reporters. “No offense to the teams we’ve had before, but this is the most talented team I’ve been on.” — Gonzalez
Record: 79-79
Previous ranking: 18
The Royals won their third consecutive game on Sept. 6 and found themselves only one game back of the final wild-card spot. They needed a hot stretch to give themselves a chance over the final couple of weeks. Instead, they lost six of their next seven, falling seven games back and setting themselves up for what occurred Tuesday: being mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, moments before a series opener against the Angels. The Royals still have a chance at a second consecutive winning record, but they entered 2025 with far bigger expectations than that following their 2024 postseason run. — Gonzalez
Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 19
The Rays’ sale to a group led by Jacksonville real estate developer Patrick Zalupski reached another checkpoint Monday when MLB’s owners unanimously approved the transaction. Atop the new ownership group’s to-do list will be securing an agreement for a new ballpark. That will be the question hovering over the Rays this offseason — assuming the sale will be finalized — before they move back into Tropicana Field for 2026. — Castillo
Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 20
Longtime executive John Mozeliak is set to say goodbye after this weekend, handing the keys over to new Cardinals decision-maker Chaim Bloom. His first order of business could be deciding the fate of manager Oliver Marmol, who deserves some credit for holding the team together during a stated transition year. Next, Bloom needs to rebuild the pitching staff beyond Sonny Gray, who is signed for one more season. Youngsters Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy have received valuable growth time this year while the team will say goodbye to soon-to-be free agent Miles Mikolas. The bullpen also needs some work. Bloom has plenty on his plate in his first offseason in charge. — Rogers
Record: 75-84
Previous ranking: 23
The 2025 season was a nightmare littered with injuries and underperformance for the Braves, a club that entered the year with World Series expectations. While most major players on the roster are under team control through 2026, one prominent figure is considering moving on: manager Brian Snitker. The 69-year-old skipper, whose contract expires after this season, has said he is considering retiring. If he does, Snitker’s 10-season run would conclude with seven postseason appearances and a World Series title in 2021. — Castillo
Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 24
The Marlins entered Game No. 158 on Wednesday still mathematically in postseason contention. The chances are remote, but staying alive this late is a win for an organization attempting to produce a consistent contender for the first time in franchise history. Never have the Marlins, despite two World Series titles in their 33-year history, reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons. They’re slowly stacking the building blocks. And, considering they moved Sandy Alcantara‘s start back to face the Mets this weekend, Miami is thirsting to play spoiler. — Castillo
Record: 75-83
Previous ranking: 21
All in all, it’s going to be a successful year for the A’s, who blew past their preseason over/under win total for the season this week. They boast the likely Rookie of the Year in Nick Kurtz and saw positive seasons from several offensive players not named Brent Rooker or Lawrence Butler, with the latter having a quiet season at the plate. Left fielder Tyler Soderstrom and catcher Shea Langeliers count as those success stories.
On the other hand, the pitching staff will finish in the bottom five of the majors in ERA — the hitter-friendly park in Sacramento didn’t help. Perhaps with a year under their belt there, the front office will have a better understanding of what kinds of arms might be successful until the team moves to Las Vegas. That should be their sole focus this winter. — Rogers
Record: 74-84
Previous ranking: 22
Adley Rutschman‘s 2025 season is atop the list of the disappointments in a lost season for the Orioles. The two-time All-Star catcher continued his regression from last year and landed on the IL for two long stints because of oblique strains on each side. Baltimore activated him Monday for the season’s final six games. It could be his final week in an Orioles uniform; with Samuel Basallo‘s emergence — and contract extension — people around baseball wonder if Baltimore will look to trade Rutschman this offseason. — Castillo
Record: 69-89
Previous ranking: 27
Bubba Chandler is getting his feet wet during garbage time for the Pirates, and that could pay dividends for them next season. Add the return of Jared Jones early next year and Pittsburgh once again looks formidable on the mound. But what will general manager Ben Cherington do to help his offense? It’s a yearly question for the Pirates, as they are set to finish last in run scoring after ranking 24th the previous season. They’re going in the wrong direction. Their third baseman are last in OPS and their catchers aren’t much better. Improvements across the board are needed. — Rogers
Record: 71-87
Previous ranking: 26
The Angels again need to find some productive pitchers this offseason, as they rank near the bottom of the majors in ERA this season. It seems to be a yearly thing, as they ranked 26th in that category in 2024 and 23rd in 2023. Their starting staff has mostly been the culprit, but change is in the air as Kyle Hendricks is almost assuredly retiring while Tyler Anderson is set to become a free agent. One bright spot has been closer Kenley Jansen, who is 28-of-29 in save opportunities. But if a 37-year-old closer on a team out of contention is your lone bright spot, you probably have bigger problems. That’s the case for the Angels heading into the winter. — Rogers
Record: 68-90
Previous ranking: 25
It was only two years ago that the Twins ended a prolonged postseason winless drought and advanced past the wild-card round in a thrilling 2023 season. Now, it seems like two decades ago. The 2025 season was a miserable one for the Twins’ faithful, punctuated by a trade-deadline selloff that felt worse only a couple weeks later when the Pohlad family announced it would maintain ownership of the franchise, angering a fan base that clamored for a replacement who would spend more money. Byron Buxton had a really nice year and Joe Ryan was not traded. Outside of that, there isn’t much to cling to in Minneapolis these days. — Gonzalez
Record: 58-100
Previous ranking: 28
The bar for progress was obviously low after the White Sox set the modern-day record for losses last year, but the franchise nonetheless took some steps forward this season. They played a more competitive brand of baseball, particularly after the All-Star break. Prospects such as Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth showed encouraging signs. Journeymen pitchers such as Shane Smith, Mike Vasil and Jordan Leasure found success. They still have a long way to go, but the White Sox are in a better position than they were at this time last year. That’s … something, at least. — Gonzalez
Record: 65-94
Previous ranking: 29
Pressing questions, from the top down, face the Nationals this offseason after they took a substantial step back in 2025. One was answered this week when the organization decided to hire Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Tobino to run its baseball operations department as Mike Rizzo’s replacement.
Next up: naming a manager. Looming in the backdrop is a more critical matter: Will ownership decide to sell again? If not, will it invest the necessary resources — not just in free agency but in other departments — to build another winner? And then there’s also the question about the future of their local television deal. The Nationals have some young talent — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams have all been All-Stars — but this will effectively be a soft reset in Washington. — Castillo
Record: 43-115
Previous ranking: 30
Only six teams have ever finished a season with a run differential below minus-400, and all of them played before the 21st century. The Rockies are currently on pace to join them. They’ve won only four of 21 games in September and currently sport a run differential of minus-412. The modern-day record is minus-345, set by the 1932 Boston Red Sox. And though the Rockies won’t lose as many games as last year’s White Sox, they’ll probably be outscored by 100-plus more runs than Chicago was. How this gets fixed is anybody’s guess. — Gonzalez
With less than a week remaining until the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs, our baseball insiders are ready to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable October buzz across the industry — even before the final 12-team postseason field is set.
What is the boldest prediction we’ve heard from an MLB exec? How confident — or concerned — should fans of last year’s World Series participants, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, be? Will the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers turn stellar regular seasons into deep playoff runs? And which under-the-radar players and teams are scouts raving about? Here’s the latest intel our MLB experts are hearing as Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers, Jorge Castillo and Alden Gonzalez empty their notebooks.
What is the boldest prediction you’ve heard from an MLB exec or scout?
Passan: The Seattle Mariners are going to win the World Series. Perhaps at this point that does not register as bold, but let’s not forget the Mariners are 49 years into their existence and they’ve yet to make a World Series, let alone win one.
Three weeks ago, this would have been laughable, as Seattle had lost 15 of 21 and found itself 3½ games behind Houston. Now, the Mariners have a three-game cushion, plus the tiebreaker in the AL West, and are in possession of a first-round bye.
The home-field advantage would be decidedly advantageous to the Mariners, who are 48-27 at home. Lining up their excellent front-line starting pitching and giving some rest to well-worked regulars — especially Cal Raleigh — could do the Mariners good. And with the highest-scoring offense in the big leagues in September and a bullpen that has some of the best stuff in baseball, the Mariners have the ingredients to conquer a wide-open AL and hang with the star-studded rosters in the NL.
Olney: We always hear how the bullpen and bench are difference-makers in the postseason, and one evaluator sees a clear delineation between the Padres’ bullpen and the rest of the field. The Mariners’ have played well down the stretch, but their relief corps is taxed; the Dodgers will be MacGyvering to make their bullpen rubble work; the Phillies will be without Jose Alvarado; the Yankees’ group can be wildly inconsistent. The San Diego bullpen, on the other hand, is solid, even without Jason Adam.
Is that evaluator, then, ready to say the Padres will win the World Series, or even the National League? “Are you f—ing kidding me?” he replied. “I don’t think we can count anybody out this year. Even the Tigers — they’ve got [Tarik] Skubal.”
How much faith does the industry have in the Blue Jays and Brewers turning potential No. 1 seeds into World Series appearances?
Olney: The feedback I’m getting is that execs see reasonable paths through October for all of the contenders with perhaps the exception of the Astros, who are wrecked by injuries to Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and Josh Hader.
As the case is made for the Blue Jays and Brewers, there is a consistent theme: these are teams that get guys on base, put the ball in play and pressure defenses. One evaluator said: “The Brewers just don’t play bad games — they might lose, but they are in every game.”
Rogers: There’s belief in both teams, but nobody is ready to declare either the favorite even as a potential top seed. Bo Bichette‘s injury came up in conversation as a detriment to the Blue Jays’ chances, and the latest pitching injuries were reasons to look elsewhere when it came to the Brewers. And this was the discussion among insiders before Brandon Woodruff was placed on the IL on Sunday.
Another talking point is that whichever team ends up with the best record in each league will do so by just a handful of wins — not enough to declare anyone the odds-on favorite next month.
Do MLB insiders think the Dodgers will turn it on in October again, as they did last season?
Gonzalez: They seem mixed. There are some — both inside and outside the Dodgers — who will tell you this group is deeper and more talented than the one that won it all last year. That their rotation is far superior. That their bullpen has the ability to be just as good, even if that hasn’t necessarily been the case during the regular season. That their lineup is probably still the best in the sport when it’s clicking.
But then there are those who continue to point out the obvious: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will go into October not knowing who to turn to for the final three outs of a game on any given night. It has gotten so bad — with Tanner Scott struggling, Blake Treinen reeling, Michael Kopech a mess, Kirby Yates unreliable, Brock Stewart hurt and few others outside of Alex Vesia stepping up — that Roki Sasaki is genuinely being considered for a high-leverage role. Just as much of a concern is the status of catcher and middle-of-the-order hitter Will Smith, who sustained a hairline fracture in his right hand near the end of arguably his best offensive season.
Passan: Everything Alden says is correct. And yet the absence of another team stepping into the vacuum the Dodgers have created allows them, in the minds of many, to maintain their status as the favorite.
Shohei Ohtani has been the best hitter in the sport in September, to say nothing of his 14⅔ shutout innings this month, including five hitless in a Sept. 16 start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Mookie Betts, who has not looked like Mookie Betts for much of the season, looks like Mookie Betts again. His home run stroke is back, and he’s tied with Juan Soto for the MLB lead in RBIs this month with 21.
In September, Dodgers hitters are tied for second in home runs and third in wOBA. The offense is a mammoth, even without Smith, and for all of the pitching questions Los Angeles carries, what resides in that clubhouse is enough talent to overcome them. This is the value of a deep team. There’s still enough to win another ring.
Do those in the game think the Yankees will make another deep October run?
Castillo: Yes, because the American League is wide open and the Yankees just might have the most talented roster, top to bottom, in the field. A National League front-office executive recently said he believes the Yankees are the favorite to win the pennant again because of their blend of talent, experience and ability to inflict damage on opposing pitchers. The Yankees lead the majors in runs scored and home runs. Their starting rotation has the second-lowest ERA in baseball since the trade deadline. Their bullpen is filled with relievers with real track records. The pieces are there for a run.
Olney: I think that’s easily envisioned, not only because the Yankees played in the last week of October just last year, but because the field is so wide open. But there are two problems cited constantly by evaluators with other teams.
No. 1: “They are a terrible defensive team,” said one AL coach, and he’s hardly alone in feeling that way. The Yankees push back on that notion, but that is certainly a perception. And No. 2: Their bullpen performance this year has been so erratic. The closer’s role has been passed around — what, a half-dozen times? — and Devin Williams‘ performance can range from pure dominance to total meltdown.
I bet if you gave truth serum to those in the Yankees’ organization, the general sentiment would be that they have no idea what to expect from this group in the playoffs.
Who do those in the game think could be this October’s most dangerous teams?
Rogers: The Mariners aren’t exactly flying under the radar anymore considering their recent win streak and series win in Houston, but some believe their pitching staff is just starting to peak, while others simply think they have prime-time players such as Randy Arozarena who have October upside. And that’s the word heard most often with the Mariners: They have tons of upside.
In the NL, the Chicago Cubs are starting to garner sleeper status. One executive mentioned that although their strengths don’t wow you at first glance, there’s no weakness to any part of their game. “If it’s the Cubs and Brewers in the division series,” he said, “can you pick a winner?”
Gonzalez: A current player who has been around awhile was trying recently to describe what it’s like being on the field at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia for a playoff game and couldn’t. The noise, he said, is deafening, unlike anything he had experienced anywhere else. His point was that the Phillies’ home-field advantage in October is more real than anybody else’s. And if there’s one team outside the reigning-champion Dodgers and the MLB-leading Brewers that sticks out in the minds of evaluators and players this coming month, it’s that one.
Even with Zack Wheeler out, the Phillies’ three lefty starters — Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo — are good enough to get it done. Their closer, Jhoan Duran, is considered almost impossible to hit. And then there’s the lineup littered with stars who have experience on the big stage and know this might be their best opportunity to win it all. The Phillies’ roster might be too expensive to be considered under the radar, but in what many consider to be a wide-open field, they’re the ones that come up in conversation most often as the most dangerous.
Who are some under-the-radar players with industry buzz as potential postseason stars?
Passan: None of the Reds’ elite young talent has postseason experience, and facing the Dodgers would be one hell of an introduction for shortstop Elly De La Cruz, right-hander Hunter Greene and left-hander Andrew Abbott. The latter two provide a whale of a one-two punch, especially in a best-of-three series, and if the Reds can hold off the Mets and Diamondbacks, the pitching matchups against Los Angeles would be tantalizing, regardless of whom the Dodgers choose among Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw. The first five have combined for a 1.69 ERA in September.
How Toronto chooses to use rookie Trey Yesavage in the postseason will be fascinating to see. The rare player to spend time at Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues in the same year, the 22-year-old right-hander, chosen 20th in the 2024 draft out of East Carolina, followed a dominant debut against Tampa Bay with a pedestrian outing against Kansas City. He has a mid-90s fastball that plays well high in the zone and a splitter that’s a gnarly complement.
Yesavage probably won’t start, but Toronto could piggyback him with a starter, slot him in a bulk role after an opener, deploy him as a multi-inning leverage weapon or have him eat an inning at a time. Whatever Toronto does, Yesavage, who has worked out of the bullpen in the minor leagues in anticipation of this, will be ready.
Castillo: Cal Raleigh — rightfully so — has attracted the shine in the Pacific Northwest this season, but the Mariners need their other All-Star position player to deliver in October if they’re going to play for the franchise’s first World Series title. And Julio Rodriguez has delivered since the All-Star break. Another slow start marred the center fielder’s overall numbers, but Rodriguez is slashing .295/.333/.570 with 17 home runs in the second half. His .903 OPS and elite defense registers as MVP-level production. Rodriguez was around for the Mariners’ last trip to the postseason in 2022, but the charismatic 24-year-old will have a chance to cement himself as one of the game’s superstars with a deep October run.
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Neil Paine
The NHL, especially in the salary cap era, is usually defined by change and upheaval — familiar contenders turning their rosters over, while new powers emerge in their place.
That’s why it was so striking to see the same two Stanley Cup finalists — the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers — in back-to-back seasons, the league’s first Cup rematch since 2008-09, and only the second since 1983-84. Add in Florida’s appearance in the 2023 Final as well, and the NHL hasn’t had fewer unique finalists over a three-year span (just three different teams) since 1954-56, when only the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens reached the Final in those three years.
This run of Panthers-Oilers dominance won’t last forever, and it almost certainly won’t survive past 2025-26 if Connor McDavid doesn’t re-sign with Edmonton after his current contract ends at the end of the year. But for now, ESPN BET’s preseason odds again list Florida (+300) as the East favorite and Edmonton (+400) as the West’s top pick, suggesting that another rematch is the likeliest outcome.
Of course, that’s only true until it’s not. So the question becomes: If it’s not Florida and Edmonton yet again, who’s next in line to face off for the Cup?
Let’s dive into the most plausible challengers from each conference, just waiting to skate through if the Panthers and/or Oilers slip up, plus a couple of up-and-coming teams who could crash the party as well.
Note: All odds below courtesy of ESPN BET
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EASTERN CONFERENCE
Odds to make Final: +360 | Win Cup: +800
Why they haven’t broken through yet: It’s an excellent question that the Canes are still trying to answer. Despite making the postseason seven straight years, Carolina’s 44 playoff wins have never led to a Stanley Cup Final appearance — giving them the most victories amassed in such a stretch without getting there at least once, topping Toronto’s old record of 41 from 1998 to 2004.
Along the way, the team has made the Eastern Conference finals in two of the past three seasons, but couldn’t score enough to avoid a Florida sweep in 2023. And their goaltending, always a huge concern, couldn’t stop enough Panthers (most notably Sam Bennett) in 2025.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Carolina will once again ride with Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen in net, which is reason enough to wonder if things will be different from last year (when they combined for a .823 SV% in the Eastern Conference finals loss to Florida). But new forward Nikolaj Ehlers ought to provide an offensive charge, while trade addition K’Andre Miller and prospect Alexander Nikishin give this blue line — usually a big strength anyway — more youth and upside, especially if Miller can recapture his 2022-23 form after a downturn in recent years.
Otherwise, the Hurricanes are counting on their familiar puck-possession system to finally add up to victory against a Florida core that returns mostly intact from last year. We’ll see.
Odds to make Final: +650 | Win Cup: +1400
Why they haven’t broken through (recently): Tampa Bay certainly has broken through before, winning two Cups — in 2020 and 2021 — and reaching another Final in 2022. And just when it seemed like that dynastic run was winding down, the Lightning rebounded in 2024-25, with their best goals per game differential since 2018-19 (+0.91).
But, as in the 2019 postseason, that regular-season success didn’t translate. The Lightning were bounced in the first round by Florida in five games for the second straight year, a huge reversal from the old days of Bolts domination in the cross-state rivalry.
Why 2025-26 could be different: First and foremost, the Lightning continue to boast one of the league’s most talented cores, which offers reason to think they can get back to seriously contending for the Cup again. They lost little of consequence over the offseason — defenseman Nick Perbix was the only real departure — though they also added little, and a team that was the NHL’s fifth oldest in 2024-25 isn’t getting any younger.
Someday Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman and Jake Guentzel will slow down. But until then, this team still carries the potential to go toe-to-toe with Florida, even if the past two playoff results aren’t what Tampa Bay has experienced previously in that rivalry.
Odds to make Final: +850 | Win Cup: +1600
Why they haven’t broken through yet: So much depends on the availability of Jack Hughes. When Hughes last played more than 62 games in a season in 2022-23, the Devils ranked No. 4 leaguewide in goals per game; with him missing 20 games in each of the past two seasons, New Jersey’s ranking in that metric fell to 12th in 2023-24 and then 20th last season.
Along with that offensive slide, the team fell out of the playoffs in 2023-24 — costing coach Lindy Ruff his job — and lost in Round 1 to Carolina in five games a year ago, a disappointing end for a team that was third best in goal differential and third youngest (a promising combo!) back in 2022-23.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Hughes’ return to health at the start of 2025-26 camp has New Jersey eyeing a return to the potential of a few years earlier. The Devils have scored 3.13 GPG over the past two seasons with Hughes in the lineup, versus 2.93 without him, which would be the difference between 12th and 21st in the league in 2024-25.
To help them score even more, the Devils added Evgenii Dadonov this summer. Russian right wing Arseny Gritsyuk might be an interesting pickup as well. If they can resolve their contract impasse with Hughes’ brother Luke, the Devils could challenge for the East — but they’ll need to figure out how to solve a Carolina team that bounced them in 2023 and 2025.
Worth a flier?
Odds to make Final: +1200 | Win Cup: +3500
Ottawa finally broke its seven-year playoff drought in 2024-25 with a young core starring Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson and Shane Pinto, who were all 25 or younger a year ago.
The Senators are still learning how to win, but they’ll return that same young core — plus good young defenseman Jordan Spence — to see if they can improve further after last season’s 19-point upgrade in the standings.
Odds to make Final: +2800 | Win Cup: +5000
The Habs have made real progress in recent seasons — three straight campaigns of an improved goals differential — culminating in their first playoff berth since 2021. Nick Suzuki‘s 89 points were the most by a Canadien in nearly three decades, and Cole Caufield‘s 37 goals were the most by a Montreal player his age since 1989-90.
With that young duo leading the way, and an upgraded roster that added defenseman Noah Dobson and forward Zack Bolduc, Montreal may finally be on the verge of something big.
The rest of the East
Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000 to make Stanley Cup Final)
Washington Capitals (+1400)
New York Rangers (+1600)
Boston Bruins (+3300)
Columbus Blue Jackets (+3300)
Detroit Red Wings (+3300)
Philadelphia Flyers (+3300)
New York Islanders (+4000)
Buffalo Sabres (+6000)
Pittsburgh Penguins (+6000)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Odds to make Final: +450 | Win Cup: +800
Why they haven’t broken through (recently): The Avs had one of the best teams in hockey history when they won the Cup in 2022, seemingly portending a run of future success in the same style the team enjoyed during the ’90s and 2000s.
Instead, they fell victim to the familiar attrition that champions face during the salary cap era, between injuries (Gabriel Landeskog) and departures (Darcy Kuemper, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky). Colorado has remained among the league’s better teams, but its goal differential has declined for four seasons running now.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar aren’t slowing down. They’ve collectively posted 438 points over the past two seasons, the most in consecutive years by any forward/defenseman duo in more than three decades.
With that kind of talent at the core — bolstered with the return of trade deadline acquisition Brock Nelson and the veteran additions of Brent Burns and Victor Olofsson — the Avs may have another run in them despite losing to the Dallas Stars in consecutive postseasons.
Odds to make Final: +450 | Win Cup: +850
Why they haven’t broken through (recently): The Golden Knights were better on paper last regular season (+0.68 goal differential per game) than they were when they won the Cup — still the only team to beat Florida in its past 12 postseason series — in 2023 (+0.52).
But the playoff offense that once carried them has vanished, dropping from 4.00 goals per game in that Cup run to just 2.44 since, capped by back-to-back shutout losses to Edmonton in the second round last spring. The talent and depth have still been there, but the results have not quite followed.
Why 2025-26 could be different: The main reason for optimism in Vegas is that the Knights reeled in the biggest fish of the 2025 offseason, acquiring star winger Mitch Marner in a sign-and-trade from Toronto in late June. Marner has averaged 29 adjusted goals, 65 adjusted assists and 94 adjusted points per season since 2020-21, making him one of the most dangerous offensive threats (particularly among setup men) in the league.
While we’ve seen players take time to adjust to new systems and teammates, Marner will ease into his new situation alongside talents like Jack Eichel, which is a scary pairing to think about in the playoffs (where Marner’s struggles have tended to be overstated).
Odds to make Final: +475 | Win Cup: +1000
Why they haven’t broken through yet: Why, indeed? Much like Carolina, the Stars keep slamming into a wall just shy of the Cup Final: Dallas has piled up 29 playoff wins over the past three seasons — the most by a team in a three-year span without reaching the Final — and all it has yielded is back-to-back losses to Edmonton in the conference finals.
Some historic franchises with similar near misses eventually broke through, but the lingering question for the Stars is whether their current group can ever take the final step.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Mikko Rantanen will be with the team for an entire season, which can only help after the Finnish winger became the best player in NHL history to skate for three different teams in the same campaign (Avalanche, Hurricanes, Stars) a year ago.
Otherwise, the Stars also shuffled the deck a fair amount over the offseason, firing coach Pete DeBoer — bringing back former bench boss Glen Gulutzan — and undergoing the biggest net loss in goals above replacement of any team. That may not seem like cause for optimism at all, but the Panthers could tell you that sometimes a drastic shakeup in identity is exactly what a team needs to finally get over the hump.
Worth a flier?
Odds to make Final: +1000 | Win Cup: +2000
It might seem wild to think the Kings, of all teams, could dethrone the Oilers in the West — seeing as L.A. has now lost to Edmonton in four straight postseasons, becoming just the fourth team in any of the big four men’s leagues to drop four consecutive playoff matchups to the same opponent (without a head-to-head win preceding the streak).
However, the Kings remain intriguing for their mix of youth and experience. And not for nothing, their offseason additions included Corey Perry, whose team has made the Cup Final in five of the past six seasons.
Odds to make Final: +2000 | Win Cup: +4000
It isn’t very hard to get excited about the Mammoth as the next potential West contender. This was the league’s seventh-youngest roster a year ago — led by Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther, all 26 or younger — and the team improved its goal differential for the third consecutive season.
Adding to that foundation, Utah traded for talented forward JJ Peterka and signed veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt and forward Brandon Tanev during an offseason that was a net positive on talent added. Dating back to its Arizona days, this franchise has made the playoffs just once (2020) since 2012, but brighter days are on the horizon in Utah.
The rest of the West
Winnipeg Jets (+1200 to make Stanley Cup Final)
Minnesota Wild (+1700)
St. Louis Blues (+2200)
Vancouver Canucks (+3000)
Nashville Predators (+3300)
Calgary Flames (+4000)
Anaheim Ducks (+5000)
Seattle Kraken (+10000)
Chicago Blackhawks (+15000)
San Jose Sharks (+30000)
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