Ukraine war: The West risks tipping the conflict in Russia’s favour – here’s why

Published

2 years ago

August 5, 2023

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Ukraine is embroiled in a fight for its very survival as an independent state. Although Moscow is able to strike Ukrainian territory with impunity, the West will not allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike Russia across the border for fear of an escalation.

But is this limitation preventing Ukraine from striking a potentially decisive blow and therefore actually helping Russia?

At the start of the war, the West was nervous about providing “offensive” weapons to Ukraine due to Mr Putin’s regular sabre-rattling about the risks of escalation.

However, the Russian military has failed to dominate Ukrainian forces, and now finds itself on the backfoot in the conflict.

The last thing the Kremlin needs now is for the conflict to escalate, as Russian military vulnerability would be further exposed.

And over the past 16 months, as Western confidence has increased in Ukraine’s ability to push back the Russian invaders, Western aid has expanded to include modern tanks, air defence systems, and long-range missiles.

Despite the Russian rhetoric, it is increasingly evident that the Kremlin has failed in its strategic ambitions, and Russia will need a long period of post-conflict recuperation before it considers any further expansionist ambitions.

Ukraine has displayed incredible courage and tenacity in repelling the Russian occupation; however, the odds remain stacked against a Ukrainian battlefield victory.

Ukraine is the David to Russia’s Goliath and is having to mount a ground offensive without the benefit of air superiority. In addition, Russia has had time to prepare formidable, layered ground defences, and has a greater tolerance than Ukraine for an attritional battle.

Despite the critical nature of Ukraine’s current military offensive, the West continues to prohibit Ukraine using Western-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory for fear that this will be the final step to provoke the Russian bear.

Although Russia is a nuclear power and has consistently used this to intimidate the West to curtail their involvement, from an objective perspective Russia is extremely unlikely to resort to nuclear escalation unless Russia’s territorial integrity is compromised.

Perhaps understandably, the West has not (to date) been prepared to commit combatants to this conflict as this would directly embroil the West in the war with Russia.

But by restricting how the weapons provided can be used, the West is directly limiting Ukraine’s offensive options at a crucial moment in the offensive.

Although Ukraine has mounted a series of drone attacks on targets across the border, including on the capital Moscow, President Zelenskyy will struggle to “take the war to Russia” without Western weapons.

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Why is this important? Russia’s centre of gravity. its main strength and thus vulnerability, is arguably Mr Putin’s support base. So if Ukraine is to prevail, it is vital that it finds a way to take the war to Russia, beyond the battlefields of Ukraine.

President Zelenskyy needs to undermine Mr Putin’s assertion that the war in Ukraine is simply a “special military operation” with limited implications for the Russian population.

Russian media consistently refers to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil as “terrorist acts”, thus framing Ukraine as using unlawful violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aims, rather than the acts of a nation that has been invaded by Russia and is fighting for its survival.

Ukraine has become embroiled in a costly war of attrition, which Western support was designed to avoid.

Battlefield success is usually associated with bold tactics, surprise, deception and momentum. Instead, Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival, but in a predictable, attritional and ponderous manner.

By restricting Ukraine’s ability to take the war to Russia, the west risks emboldening Mr Putin and tipping the balance of the war in Russia’s favour.

World

Prisons across France attacked ‘in response to crackdown on drug trafficking’

Published

5 hours ago

April 15, 2025

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Prisons across France attacked 'in response to crackdown on drug trafficking'

Several French prisons were attacked overnight in response to government efforts to clamp down on drug trafficking in the country, senior officials said.

Unknown assailants fired automatic weapons at a prison in the southern city of Toulon, while vehicles were burned outside other facilities across the country and staff were threatened.

France’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office said on Tuesday that it had taken charge of the investigation, while the country’s DGSI national security investigation will also be involved.

French media reported that the prisons targeted were in or near cities including Toulon, Aix-En-Provence, Marseille, and the communes of Valence and Nimes.

Prisons were also targeted in the commune of Villepinte and the suburb of Nanterre near Paris, according to reports.

It is not immediately clear whether the attacks were co-ordinated, or who carried them out.

France’s Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, who has led efforts to toughen prison security and crack down on gangsters who run their empires from behind bars, said he would travel to Toulon.

“Attempts have been made to intimidate staff in several prisons, ranging from burning vehicles to firing automatic weapons,” Mr Darmanin wrote on X.

“I am going to Toulon to support the officers concerned. The French Republic is facing up to the problem of drug trafficking and is taking measures that will massively disrupt the criminal networks.”

Meanwhile, the country’s Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said he had instructed local prefects, alongside the police and gendarmerie, to immediately step up the protection of staff and prisons.

A ‘white tsunami’ of cocaine

Years of record South American cocaine imports to Europe have supercharged local drug markets, sparking a wave of drug violence across the continent.

Gangs in France have been able to expand from traditional power bases in cities like Marseille into smaller regional towns unaccustomed to drug violence.

The rise in gang crime is thought to have led to increased support for the far-right National Rally party and have helped drag French politics rightward.

Mr Darmanin, a former interior minister, and Mr Retailleau have prioritised tackling drug trafficking.

In February, Mr Retailleau announced record cocaine seizures of 47 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to 23 tonnes in all of 2023.

Mr Retailleau said France had been hit by a “white tsunami” that had rewritten the rules of the criminal landscape.

Meanwhile, Mr Darmanin has proposed a series of measures to tighten prison security, including isolating the country’s top 100 kingpins.

Lawmakers are also close to approving a sweeping new anti-drug trafficking law that would create a new national organised crime prosecutors’ office and give greater investigative power to police investigating drug gangs.

French authorities scored a win against drug crime in February, when they recaptured Mohamed Amra, a French fugitive known as “The Fly.”

His escape as he was being transported from prison to a court hearing resulted in the deaths of two prison guards and was seized upon by right-wing politicians as evidence that France had lost its grip on drug crime.

World

Katy Perry floats in space as part of star-studded all-female Blue Origin mission

Published

23 hours ago

April 14, 2025

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Katy Perry floats in space as part of star-studded all-female Blue Origin mission

Katy Perry has blasted off to space along with five other women in the first all-female space crew in over sixty years.

The Firework singer lifted off from West Texas on a Blue Origin rocket before becoming the first artist to sing in space.

Flying alongside Perry were author Lauren Sanchez, the fiancee of Blue Origin owner and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, journalist and TV presenter Gayle King, civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen, former rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, and filmmaker Kerianne Flynn.

The star-studded crew were supported on the ground by family and friends including Kris Jenner, Khloe Kardashian and Oprah Winfrey, who said she had “never been more proud” of her friend, King.

“There’s only one time all the women are going up for the first time,” Oprah said she told her friend when urging her to go on the flight, telling her she’d regret turning down the opportunity.

Weightlessness

The crew were weightless for just four minutes after passing the Karman line, a 62-mile-high boundary that is internationally recognised as the boundary of space.

They could be heard screaming as they began to feel weightless, and told each other to look at the incredible views of the moon.

As the crew were leaving space, Perry started to sing What a Wonderful World by Louis Armstrong.

Asked why she chose that song, she said: “It’s not about me or about me singing my songs, it was about a collective energy in there.

“It’s about this wonderful world that we see right out there and appreciating it.”

She confirmed she will be writing a song about the experience.

Space missions don’t get any weirder than this

A sassy crew, a billionaire and a celebrity circus in the desert. Space missions don’t get any weirder.

But this is the new world of Blue Origin and its publicity machine.

It brought together six women – all at the top of their game – and dressed them in designer flight suits. One of them, singer Katy Perry, said they “put the ass into astronauts”.

They launched in a rocket called New Shepard, rising to 65 miles above the Earth, where they unbuckled and floated.

Back on planet Earth there was a star-studded gathering. There were a couple of Kardashians. And Oprah Winfrey was there too, covering her eyes, barely able to look.

It was all a little surreal, and maybe it will have attracted an audience who wouldn’t normally watch a space launch.

It’s remarkable that this was the first all-female space mission in more than 60 years.

Read Thomas Moore’s full analysis here.

The descent

Three parachutes on their capsule opened up to bring them safely back down to Earth and just before they landed, an air cushion blew a cloud of dust up in the west Texas desert, giving a dramatic-looking touchdown.

“Excited as I am, I’ll be very glad when we come back down,” said self-confessed nervous flier King before liftoff.

When she exited the shuttle, the presenter kissed the floor and said: “Thank you, Jesus”.

She said it was “oddly quiet” in space, and it reminded her that people needed to “do better and be better” on Earth.

“It was the most incredible experience of my life to be up there and see such vast darkness in space and look down on our planet,” said Flynn, through tears.

“The moon was so beautiful and I feel like that was a special gift just for me,” she said.

World

British father and son drown off Australian coast – reports

Published

23 hours ago

April 14, 2025

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British father and son drown off Australian coast - reports

A British father and son have reportedly drowned after they were swept out to sea off the coast of a popular Australian tourist town.

The 46-year-old man and his 17-year-old son reportedly got into difficulty while swimming at a beach in Seventeen Seventy – named after the year Captain James Cook landed in Queensland.

They were declared dead at the scene after being pulled from the water by a rescue helicopter.

A third man, an Australian who is believed to have tried to rescue the pair, was taken to hospital after suffering head injuries, according to local media.

CapRescue, the emergency service that conducted the operation on Sunday, said it “was a difficult one”.

“At 2.17pm, emergency services were called to 1770 after reports three people had been swept out into the ocean,” they said in a statement on Facebook.

“Multiple crews were tasked to the scene, including CapRescue. Despite the best efforts of all involved, two people tragically lost their lives.

“One patient was transported by air to the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital in a life-threatening condition.

“Our thoughts are with everyone affected by this heartbreaking incident.”

Police confirmed the pair were visiting from the UK and said a report would be prepared for the coroner, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), while 7News reported they were father and son.

The town, at the southern tip of the Great Barrier Reef, draws visitors from around the world and is busy with tourists in the school holidays before Easter.

Surf Life Saving Queensland’s regional operations manager, Darren Everard, told ABC the deaths were “an absolute tragedy”.

“Around any of our creeks and headlands… especially on a high tide when there’s a big swell, it’s chaos in the water and… sadly, that’s where we have coastal fatalities in Australia,” he said.

“I think everyone should just take that little bit of time when they go on holidays, and it doesn’t matter where you are around Australia, seek local knowledge… but you also need to go to where those flags are.”

A foreign Office spokesperson said: “We are supporting the family of two British nationals who have died in Australia and are in contact with the local authorities.”