Ukraine is embroiled in a fight for its very survival as an independent state. Although Moscow is able to strike Ukrainian territory with impunity, the West will not allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike Russia across the border for fear of an escalation.
But is this limitation preventing Ukraine from striking a potentially decisive blow and therefore actually helping Russia?
At the start of the war, the West was nervous about providing “offensive” weapons to Ukraine due to Mr Putin’s regular sabre-rattling about the risks of escalation.
The last thing the Kremlin needs now is for the conflict to escalate, as Russian military vulnerability would be further exposed.
And over the past 16 months, as Western confidence has increased in Ukraine’s ability to push back the Russian invaders, Western aid has expanded to include modern tanks, air defence systems, and long-range missiles.
Despite the Russian rhetoric, it is increasingly evident that the Kremlin has failed in its strategic ambitions, and Russia will need a long period of post-conflict recuperation before it considers any further expansionist ambitions.
More on Ukraine
Related Topics:
Ukraine has displayed incredible courage and tenacity in repelling the Russian occupation; however, the odds remain stacked against a Ukrainian battlefield victory.
Ukraine is the David to Russia’s Goliath and is having to mount a ground offensive without the benefit of air superiority. In addition, Russia has had time to prepare formidable, layered ground defences, and has a greater tolerance than Ukraine for an attritional battle.
Although Russia is a nuclear power and has consistently used this to intimidate the West to curtail their involvement, from an objective perspective Russia is extremely unlikely to resort to nuclear escalation unless Russia’s territorial integrity is compromised.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
4:00
Un-named Video
Perhaps understandably, the West has not (to date) been prepared to commit combatants to this conflict as this would directly embroil the West in the war with Russia.
But by restricting how the weapons provided can be used, the West is directly limiting Ukraine’s offensive options at a crucial moment in the offensive.
Although Ukraine has mounted a series of drone attacks on targets across the border, including on the capital Moscow, President Zelenskyy will struggle to “take the war to Russia” without Western weapons.
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
Why is this important? Russia’s centre of gravity. its main strength and thus vulnerability, is arguably Mr Putin’s support base. So if Ukraine is to prevail, it is vital that it finds a way to take the war to Russia, beyond the battlefields of Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy needs to undermine Mr Putin’s assertion that the war in Ukraine is simply a “special military operation” with limited implications for the Russian population.
Russian media consistently refers to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil as “terrorist acts”, thus framing Ukraine as using unlawful violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aims, rather than the acts of a nation that has been invaded by Russia and is fighting for its survival.
Image: Drone attack in Moscow damages two buildings and injures one person
Ukraine has become embroiled in a costly war of attrition, which Western support was designed to avoid.
Battlefield success is usually associated with bold tactics, surprise, deception and momentum. Instead, Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival, but in a predictable, attritional and ponderous manner.
By restricting Ukraine’s ability to take the war to Russia, the west risks emboldening Mr Putin and tipping the balance of the war in Russia’s favour.
Pope Francis is in a critical condition after a “prolonged respiratory crisis” that required a high-flow of oxygen and is “suffering more than yesterday”, the Vatican has said.
In an update on Saturday evening, the Vatican said “the Holy Father’s condition continues to be critical”, adding that this morning he “presented with a prolonged asthmatic respiratory crisis” which required the application of high-flow oxygen.
He also had blood transfusions after tests revealed thrombocytopenia, which is associated with anaemia.
“The Holy Father continues to be vigilant and spent the day in an armchair even though he was suffering more than yesterday. At the moment the prognosis is reserved,” the Vatican’s statement said.
In an update earlier on Saturday morning – the shortest since Francis was admitted to hospital on 14 February – the Vatican said he will not lead Sunday prayers for the second week running, adding: “The Pope rested well.”
Francis is likely to prepare a written homily for someone else to read at Sunday’s Angelus.
More on Pope Francis
Related Topics:
Image: The Pope before entering hospital. Pic: AP
Millions of people around the world have been concerned about the Pope’s increasingly frail health – and his condition has given rise to speculation over a possible resignation, which the Vatican has not commented on.
Doctors on Friday said he was “not out of danger” and was expected to remain at Rome’s Gemelli hospital for at least another week.
Sergio Alfieri, the chief of the pontiff’s medical team, said: “Is he out of danger? No. But if the question is ‘is he in danger of death’, the answer is ‘no’.”
Image: Sergio Alfieri (R) said Pope Francis was a ‘fragile patient’ but was in ‘good spirits’. Pic: AP
He said Francis was affected by seasonal flu before being taken to hospital and that, “due to his challenging duties”, he had suffered fatigue.
He is also fighting a multipronged infection of bacteria and viruses in the respiratory tract.
Image: A woman places a rosary at the statue of the late Pope John Paul II outside Rome’s Gemelli Hospital, where Pope Francis is being treated. Pic AP
The doctors warned that while he did not have sepsis – where germs enter the bloodstream – there was always a risk the infection could spread in his body, and they said that was the biggest concern.
Sepsis is a complication of an infection that can lead to organ failure and death.
Pope Francis has a history of respiratory illness, having lost part of one of his lungs to pleurisy as a young man. He had an acute case of pneumonia in 2023.
The release of more than 600 Palestinian prisoners planned for Saturday has been postponed “until the release of the next hostages is secured without humiliating ceremonies”, Israel has said.
In a statement early on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office accused the Palestinian militant group Hamas of “repeated violations” as it lashed out at “disgraceful ceremonies” during the handover of Israeli captives in Gaza.
The Israeli PM’s office said: “In light of the repeated and ongoing violations by Hamas – including the disgraceful ceremonies that dishonour the dignity of our abductees and the cynical use of captives for propaganda purposes – it has been decided to postpone the release of the terrorists that was planned for yesterday until the release of the next group of abductees is secured, and without the humiliating ceremonies.”
The statement came as vehicles apparently carrying prisoners left the open gates of Ofer prison in the occupied West Bank, only to turn around and go back in.
Image: Israeli forces at Ofer prison in the West Bank
The release of 620 Palestinian prisoners had been delayed for several hours and was meant to happen after six Israeli hostages were released on Saturday.
Five of the six captives were escorted by masked, armed militants in front of crowds – displays that the United Nations and others have criticised as cruel after previous handovers.
The final hostage was released to the Red Cross in private.
The Gaza ceasefire deal continues to hold, despite tensions rising earlier in the week when Hamas initially handed over the body of an unidentified Palestinian woman instead of Israeli mother-of-two Shiri Bibas.
The hostage-prisoner exchange earmarked for Saturday was supposed to be the last for the first phase of the ceasefire.
Israel had been expected to free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners on Saturday, including a man who has been detained for more than 40 years, and many more given life sentences.
However, as night fell across the region, they remained behind bars, with Hamas claiming their release had been delayed because some of them had been “assaulted”.
An Israeli spokesperson has denied the assaults and said the Red Cross were present at the prison.
The first two hostages released on Saturday were Tal Shoham and Avera Mengistu.
Mr Shoham, 40, was visiting his wife’s family in Kibbutz Be’eri when Hamas militants stormed into the community during the October 7 attacks in 2023.
His wife, two young children and three other relatives were also abducted, but they were freed in an exchange in November 2023.
Image: Abra Mengistu hugs his family in Israel after his release. Pic: IDF
Mr Mengistu, a 39-year-old Ethiopian-Israeli, had been held in Gaza since he entered the territory on his own in 2014.
Watching the moment he was freed on TV, his family broke out in song as he walked free for the first time in more than a decade.
Later on Saturday, Eliya Cohen, Omer Shem Tov and Omer Wenkert were handed over to the Red Cross in Nuseirat, central Gaza.
Image: Omer Shem Tov, a hostage held in Gaza since October 2023, pictured as he is released. Pic: Reuters
Mr Shem Tov, 22, was taken during the October 7 attacks on the Nova music festival.
The computer programmer had shared his live location with his family, who eventually noticed he was headed towards Gaza and contact with him was lost.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:59
Hostage reunited with parents
Mr Cohen, 27, was also taken from the Nova festival, alongside his fiancee.
Released hostages have said that he was kept in chains and deprived of food and sunlight during his time in captivity, according to reports.
Mr Wenkert, 23, was taken from Nova. He suffers from colitis and requires special medical care, it has been reported.
Finally, Hisham al Sayed, 28, was handed over in a private ceremony.
The Bedouin-Israeli, from the village of Hura in the Negev desert, has been a captive since he crossed into Gaza in 2015.
Image: Nael Barghouti pictured in 2011. Pic: Reuters
Who were the Palestinian prisoners due to be released?
More than 600 Palestinian prisoners had been set to be released on Saturday.
According to the prisons office, which is run by Hamas, they included 50 who had been sentenced to life imprisonment, 60 described as having “high” sentences, 47 prisoners from the “Wafa al Ahrar” 2011 prisoner exchange deal who had since been re-arrested, and 445 who were arrested after 7 October attacks.
The “Wafa al-Ahrar” deal was the 2011 prisoner exchange agreement that saw the release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for 1027 Palestinian prisoners.
Among the most high-profile Palestinians who had been set to be released was Nael Barghouti – the longest-serving prisoner, who has been inside for 43 years.
Also on the list were several journalists, many of whom covered events at al Shifa hospital, and Yousef al Mansi, a Palestinian minister in Gaza.
It had been expected that Dr Hussam Abu Safiya, the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital in Gaza, would be among those being released on Saturday.
However it later emerged that he was not on the list of those set to be freed.
Pope Francis is in a critical condition after a “prolonged respiratory crisis” that required a high-flow of oxygen and is “suffering more than yesterday”, the Vatican has said.
In an update on Saturday evening, the Vatican said “the Holy Father’s condition continues to be critical”, adding that this morning he “presented with a prolonged asthmatic respiratory crisis” which required the application of high-flow oxygen.
He also had blood transfusions after tests revealed thrombocytopenia, which is associated with anemia.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:43
Pope Francis ‘not out of danger’
“The Holy Father continues to be vigilant and spent the day in an armchair even though he was suffering more than yesterday. At the moment the prognosis is reserved,” the Vatican’s statement said.
In an update earlier on Saturday morning – the shortest since Francis was admitted to hospital on 14 February – the Vatican said he will not lead Sunday prayers for the second week running, adding: “The Pope rested well.”
Francis is likely to prepare a written homily for someone else to read at Sunday’s Angelus.
More on Pope Francis
Related Topics:
Millions of people around the world have been concerned about the Pope’s increasingly frail health – and his condition has given rise to speculation over a possible resignation, which the Vatican has not commented on.
Doctors on Friday said he was “not out of danger” and was expected to remain at Rome’s Gemelli hospital for at least another week.
Sergio Alfieri, the chief of the pontiff’s medical team, said: “Is he out of danger? No. But if the question is ‘is he in danger of death’, the answer is ‘no’.”
Image: Sergio Alfieri (R) said Pope Francis was a ‘fragile patient’ but was in ‘good spirits’. Pic: AP
He said Francis was affected by seasonal flu before being taken to hospital and that, “due to his challenging duties”, he had suffered fatigue.
He is also fighting a multipronged infection of bacteria and viruses in the respiratory tract.
The doctors warned that while he did not have sepsis – where germs enter the bloodstream – there was always a risk the infection could spread in his body, and they said that was the biggest concern.
Sepsis is a complication of an infection that can lead to organ failure and death.
Pope Francis has a history of respiratory illness, having lost part of one of his lungs to pleurisy as a young man. He had an acute case of pneumonia in 2023.