Ukraine war: The West risks tipping the conflict in Russia’s favour – here’s why
Ukraine is embroiled in a fight for its very survival as an independent state. Although Moscow is able to strike Ukrainian territory with impunity, the West will not allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike Russia across the border for fear of an escalation.
But is this limitation preventing Ukraine from striking a potentially decisive blow and therefore actually helping Russia?
At the start of the war, the West was nervous about providing “offensive” weapons to Ukraine due to Mr Putin’s regular sabre-rattling about the risks of escalation.
However, the Russian military has failed to dominate Ukrainian forces, and now finds itself on the backfoot in the conflict.
The last thing the Kremlin needs now is for the conflict to escalate, as Russian military vulnerability would be further exposed.
And over the past 16 months, as Western confidence has increased in Ukraine’s ability to push back the Russian invaders, Western aid has expanded to include modern tanks, air defence systems, and long-range missiles.
Despite the Russian rhetoric, it is increasingly evident that the Kremlin has failed in its strategic ambitions, and Russia will need a long period of post-conflict recuperation before it considers any further expansionist ambitions.
Ukraine has displayed incredible courage and tenacity in repelling the Russian occupation; however, the odds remain stacked against a Ukrainian battlefield victory.
Ukraine is the David to Russia’s Goliath and is having to mount a ground offensive without the benefit of air superiority. In addition, Russia has had time to prepare formidable, layered ground defences, and has a greater tolerance than Ukraine for an attritional battle.
Despite the critical nature of Ukraine’s current military offensive, the West continues to prohibit Ukraine using Western-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory for fear that this will be the final step to provoke the Russian bear.
Although Russia is a nuclear power and has consistently used this to intimidate the West to curtail their involvement, from an objective perspective Russia is extremely unlikely to resort to nuclear escalation unless Russia’s territorial integrity is compromised.
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Perhaps understandably, the West has not (to date) been prepared to commit combatants to this conflict as this would directly embroil the West in the war with Russia.
But by restricting how the weapons provided can be used, the West is directly limiting Ukraine’s offensive options at a crucial moment in the offensive.
Although Ukraine has mounted a series of drone attacks on targets across the border, including on the capital Moscow, President Zelenskyy will struggle to “take the war to Russia” without Western weapons.
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Why is this important? Russia’s centre of gravity. its main strength and thus vulnerability, is arguably Mr Putin’s support base. So if Ukraine is to prevail, it is vital that it finds a way to take the war to Russia, beyond the battlefields of Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy needs to undermine Mr Putin’s assertion that the war in Ukraine is simply a “special military operation” with limited implications for the Russian population.
Russian media consistently refers to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil as “terrorist acts”, thus framing Ukraine as using unlawful violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aims, rather than the acts of a nation that has been invaded by Russia and is fighting for its survival.
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Ukraine has become embroiled in a costly war of attrition, which Western support was designed to avoid.
Battlefield success is usually associated with bold tactics, surprise, deception and momentum. Instead, Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival, but in a predictable, attritional and ponderous manner.
By restricting Ukraine’s ability to take the war to Russia, the west risks emboldening Mr Putin and tipping the balance of the war in Russia’s favour.
It is an earthquake for the MAGA ecosystem.
Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene were a formidable alliance on the Republican Party’s hard-right flank.
For years, the congresswoman for Georgia embodied the combative, conspiracy-tinged politics that define Trump’s presidency.
She called him “the father of the America First movement,” campaigned to be his running mate, and was quick to defend him.
“David Cameron can kiss my ass,” she told Sky News when asked about the former UK Prime Minister’s concerns about US fading support for Ukraine.
Door-stepped by my colleague Martha Kelner, she said: “We don’t give a crap about your country or your reporting.
“The Trump administration is doing a great job and I stand by their statements,” she added.
“I’m thankful to President Trump that he is leading us out of wars.”
Watch Sky’s Martha Kelner’s encounter with Taylor Greene from earlier this year…
But in recent months, she had expressed concerns about Trump’s involvement in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere.
It escalated when she stood with victims of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein to demand justice and joined Democrats in demanding a vote on the release of all files.
Just days ago, President Trump told reporters Taylor Greene had “lost her way”, but something triggered a war of words late on Friday.
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‘Shame on everyone that protected Epstein’
The president had taken questions on Air Force One, with two reporters citing Taylor Green’s demand that the files be released.
Moments later, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was withdrawing his endorsement of the congresswoman.
He branded her a “ranting lunatic”, “wacky Marjorie”, and said all she ever does is “COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN.”
Her reply came very quickly, in a post claiming she had sent the president text messages about Jeffrey Epstein.
“Apparently this is what sent him over the edge. The Epstein Files,” she posted.
Read more on Jeffrey Epstein:
Ghislaine Maxwell ‘wants Trump to commute sentence’
What Epstein’s right-hand woman said about Trump and Andrew
She accused him of “coming after” her to “scare all the other Republicans” before next week’s vote to release the Epstein files.
“It’s astonishing how hard he’s fighting to stop the Epstein files from coming out that he actually goes to this level,” she added.
For years, they were joined at the hip – Trump the movement’s figurehead, Taylor Greene its megaphone – but it has now descended into open hostility.
Epstein, the story that won’t go away, has just cost Trump one of his most loyal allies, and rocked the internal dynamics of his political movement.
At least nine people have been killed and 32 injured after a cache of confiscated explosives detonated inside a police station in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The accidental blast occurred late on Friday in the Nowgam area of Srinagar, as forensic and police personnel were evaluating the explosive material, according to police director-general Nalin Prabhat.
Most of the dead were officers and forensic staff, police said, adding that several of the injured remained in a critical condition.
The massive explosion tore through the police station, setting the building and several vehicles on fire.
“The intensity of the blast was such that some body parts were recovered from nearby houses, around 100-200m away from the police station,” a police source said.
A series of smaller successive blasts slowed rescue operations.
A police official lays flowers on a coffin at a ceremony for the victims. Pic: Reuters
The police station blast comes just days after a deadly car explosion in New Delhi on Monday, which killed at least eight people near the city’s historic Red Fort.
The car explosion occurred hours after police in Kashmir said they had dismantled a suspected militant cell operating from the region, arresting at least seven people, including two doctors from Indian cities.
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Police also seized a large quantity of bomb-making material in Faridabad, near New Delhi.
Indian security forces have conducted multiple raids across Kashmir during their investigation, questioning hundreds and detaining dozens.
Relatives protest following the blast. Pic: Reuters
Authorities said DNA testing identified the car’s driver as a Kashmiri doctor, and government forces demolished his family home in Pulwama district on Thursday night.
In the past, security forces have demolished the homes of individuals they allege were linked to militants opposing Indian rule in Kashmir as a form of punishment.
India and Pakistan both claim all of Kashmir, though each controls only part of the territory.
Militants in the Indian-administered region have been fighting against New Delhi since 1989, with India labeling it Pakistan-backed terrorism.
Pakistan denies the claim, saying that many Kashmiris view it as a legitimate struggle for independence.
World
Donald Trump withdraws support for Marjorie Taylor Greene after she calls for Epstein files to be released
Donald Trump has withdrawn support for Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – which she claims is over her support for releasing files about Jeffrey Epstein.
In comments made on Truth Social, Mr Trump said he would support any challenger who wants to take Ms Greene’s seat in Georgia.
It comes after weeks of the MAGA ally breaking ranks from the president – and according to a post on X after his withdrawal, she believes it’s over a possible vote on releasing all of the Epstein files.
Read more: Marjorie Taylor Greene – the MAGA ally known for embracing conspiracies and insulting journalists
After the US government shutdown ended, a petition to vote on the full release of the files about disgraced pedophile financier Epstein received enough signatures – including Ms Greene’s – to bring it to a vote in the House of Representatives.
While such a vote does not yet have a date, Mr Trump has called the files a “hoax” and accused the Democrats of using them “to try and deflect from their disastrous SHUTDOWN”.
Earlier this week, thousands of documents from Epstein were released, which reference Mr Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson, among others.
Read more: What do Epstein documents say about Trump, Andrew and Mandelson?
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The new Epstein files: The key takeaways
Trump attacks ‘Wacky’ Majorie
In his post on Truth Social overnight, Mr Trump said: “all I see “Wacky” Marjorie do is COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN!
“It seemed to all begin when I sent her a Poll stating that she should not run for Senator, or Governor, she was at 12%, and didn’t have a chance (unless, of course, she had my Endorsement – which she wasn’t about to get!).”
The president went on to claim “she has told many people that she is upset that I don’t return her phone calls anymore”, before adding: “I can’t take a ranting Lunatic’s call every day.
“I understand that wonderful, Conservative people are thinking about primarying Marjorie in her District of Georgia, that they too are fed up with her and her antics and, if the right person runs, they will have my Complete and Unyielding Support.”
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Will new Epstein emails hurt Trump?
Greene: Trump’s fight to stop files ‘astonishing’
Around an hour later, Ms Greene responded on X to say “President Trump just attacked me and lied about me”, and shared text messages to him and a White House aide about releasing information on the deceased pedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.
“Of course he’s coming after me hard to make an example to scare all the other Republicans before next weeks vote to release the Epstein files,” she added on social media.
“It’s astonishing really how hard he’s fighting to stop the Epstein files from coming out that he actually goes to this level.”
Read more: Why this is dangerous terrain for Trump
Marjorie Taylor Greene was an ardent supporter of MAGA and became a Republican Congresswoman in 2021. File pic: AP
She then said “most Americans wish he would fight this hard to help the forgotten men and women of America… that’s what I voted for”.
“I have supported President Trump with too much of my precious time, too much of my own money, and fought harder for him even when almost all other Republicans turned their back and denounced him,” she added.
“But I don’t worship or serve Donald Trump… I remain the same today as I’ve always been and I will continue to pray this administration will be successful because the American people desperately deserve what they voted for.”
Watch Sky’s Martha Kelner’s encounter with Greene from earlier this year…
Earlier this week, Mr Trump accused the MAGA loyalist of “catering to the other side” after she criticised his focus on foreign policy, which she described as “America Last”.
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Trump rebukes MAGA ally over foreign policy
Epstein took his own life in prison in 2019 while awaiting a trial for sex trafficking charges and was accused of running a “vast network” of underage girls for sex. He pleaded not guilty.
Following a conviction for soliciting prostitution from a minor in 2008, he was registered as a sex offender.
It comes after Democrats on the House Oversight Committee published several emails, which they said “raises questions about Trump and Epstein’s relationship, Trump’s knowledge of Epstein’s crimes”, and the president’s relationship to Epstein’s victims.
Mr Trump has consistently denied knowledge of Epstein’s crimes and called claims linking him to the financier a “hoax”.
Read more on Jeffrey Epstein:
Ghislaine Maxwell ‘wants Trump to commute sentence’
What Epstein’s right-hand woman said about Trump and Andrew
The White House also said the “selectively leaked emails” were an attempt to “create a fake narrative to smear President Trump”.
Republicans retaliated by releasing more than 20,000 pages from Epstein’s files and accusing Democrats of “cherry-picking” their documents.
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