Interest rates are up, house prices are down, the small boats are still coming, and NHS doctors are striking.
Labour are still 20 points ahead of the Conservativesin the poll of polls.
As he contemplates his political future and the lack of progress on his five pledges, it is understandable that the prime minister might want a summer holiday break from the day job.
Rishi Sunak’s desire to get away can only have increased as he suffers personalised indignities.
Image: Greenpeace activists on the roof of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s house
Even the prime minister’s sartorial choices have come under attack with an arrows-point-to-defective-parts scrutiny of his made to measure suits.
“Sunak needs his suits to be nipped in – anything else would drown him,” the style editor of The Daily Telegraph concedes, “but the cropped proportions mean his trouser leg rides up to mid-calf.”
Crisis, what crisis?
Only a few miserable souls will begrudge the prime minister some time off, especially since we are told that he will be back at work, in Blighty, in only a few days.
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The modest length of his holiday will not take targets off his back. Prime ministers struggle to hit the right note with their holidays and usually get it wrong.
Is it too flashy? Too boring? Too foreign? Bad for the environment? And who is really paying for it?
These delicate questions explain why Number 10 spokespeople made the mistake of refusing to give details of where the Sunak family were heading.
It was an error because denial will only perk up interest.
Past form shows that newshounds were bound to sniff out the location anyway and would then pap photos more enthusiastically than if they had been served up with a photo opportunity.
David Cameron learnt this lesson the hard way after having his man boobs snapped on a Cornish beach.
Image: British Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha on holiday in Cornwall in 2015
From then on, Cameron holidays began with a posed picture, usually of the beshirted prime minister pointing at dead fish in a market.
It took less than 24 hours for Mr Sunak’s secret destination to be exposed.
The prime minister came clean in a rare extended radio phone-in which came across like a public request for permission to have a break afterwards. Sunak duly pleaded that this holiday is a “special trip”.
“We’re going to California, which is where I met my wife, so it’s very special to us,” he explained to listeners, “but the kids are very excited because I’m taking them to Disneyland”.
It later emerged that the Mickey Mouse visit may be as much for their father as for his daughters Krishna and Anoushka.
“They have sadly grown out of princesses,” the prime minister admitted – but “there’s a new, well not that new anymore, Star Wars bit of Disneyland which I’m very excited about”.
Image: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, his wife Akshata Murty and daughters Anoushka and Krishna
Not much to complain about so far. Lots of Brits take their families Disneyward, though most opt for the shorter-haul flights to Disneyworld in Florida rather than Disneyland in California.
Sunak has long advertised his softer side as a Star Wars geek. He collects merchandise from the franchise including a toy lightsabre, and called in the cameras to film his visit to the last blockbuster episode, accompanying his then “boss” Sajid Javid.
A California beach holiday is a lot grander than Cornwall or the walks in the Alps and Snowdonia favoured by Prime Minister Theresa May and her husband Philip.
The Sunaks are trying to muffle extravagance by flying “commercial” rather than indulging the prime minister’s predilection for private jets. That is canny of them – a “PJ” return trip for the family would cost around $300,000 (£235,000).
They’ll be more frugality because they’ll be no hotel or rental costs. The Sunaks will be staying in the $5m (£3.9m) penthouse apartment they already own on Ocean Boulevard in Santa Monica.
Though whether it will be big enough to accommodate the prime ministerial entourage, funded by the taxpayer, is another question.
According to Cherie Blair, her husband’s prime ministerial vacations required the presence of “three garden girls (the Downing Street secretaries) to do shifts because he has to have a 24-hour office, the comms people to take in secure lines to the White House and No 10, the detectives who come every day with the red boxes”.
Mr Sunak may get by with a smaller team since he is only expecting “daily updates from his private office”.
The Blairs did not have the wealth of Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murthy.
Image: Prime Minister Tony Blair and his wife, Cherie, on holiday in Cumbria in 2002
Cherie admits the family were “house bandits” inviting themselves as guests in other people’s property.
Blair’s image was damaged by the hospitality he accepted from Sir Cliff Richard, the Bee Gee Maurice Gibb, the Bamford JCB dynasty and the Italian aristocrat Prince Girolamo Strozzi, among others.
Having pitched her tent on a campsite in Cornwall, the Labour MP Caroline Flint was surprised to see the then prime minister walking by.
That year, following the foot and mouth outbreak, the Blairs fitted in an unconvincing “holiday at home” away from the sun.
Margaret Thatcher used to impose on a friend as well. She spent several summer breaks away from Number 10 at the Swiss lakeside schloss of Lady Elenore Glover, the widow of a Tory MP.
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By all accounts she did not enjoy her leisure time and packed in as many official trips and visitors as she could.
The surprising exception was when she turned up in Cameron territory on a Cornish beach with a spaniel called Polo on a lead, and her husband Denis.
It was the day after she had surgery on her hand, and the purpose was to demonstrate that the Iron Lady still had an iron grip under the bandages.
John Major and Gordon Brown did not attract attention with their holidays because they did not amount to much.
Major watched cricket and bought a second home in Norfolk.
A glum looking Brown took off his red tie in Suffolk but rushed back to London at the first news of anything happening.
Image: Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his wife Sarah walk through Whitlingham Country Park in Trowse in 2008
Like much else during his premiership, Boris Johnson’s holiday diary was chaotic – including Perugia, Greece, Mustique and Margate.
It remains a mystery who picked up the tab for some of his luxury trips with Carrie.
He almost certainly did pay himself for their memorable budget trip to a remote Scottish cottage in 2020 with their new baby. That idyll was cut short when photographers took unauthorised pictures of the couple.
Prime Minister Sunak has not done himself any damage with this year’s family holiday.
He claims not to have had a proper one for four years. Efforts to get away last summer were certainly blighted by his leadership battle with Liz Truss and the death of the Queen.
He has not notched up any points as a man of the people either, with the well-heeled trip to California.
The choice confirms what the world already thought of the couple who met at the elite Stanford University, not far from Disneyland.
No score with the holiday can be seen as a win for this prime minister facing the live possibility that the next general election could free him “to spend more time with the family”, as ministers thrust out of office like to put it.
Otherwise, expressed in the cruder words to errant underlings of an old Sky News boss, “go on holiday permanently, mate!”.
Lib Dems don’t tend to listen to right-wing podcasts.
But if they did, they may be heartened by some of what they hear.
Take the interview Kemi Badenoch gave to the TRIGGERnometry show in February.
Ten minutes into the episode, one of the hosts recounts a conversation with a Tory MP who said the party lost the last election to the Lib Dems because they went too far to the right.
Everyone laughs.
Then in March, in a conversation with the Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson, the Tory leader was asked to describe a Liberal Democrat.
“Somebody who is good at fixing their church roof,” said Ms Badenoch.
She meant it as a negative.
Lib Dems now mention it every time you go near any of them with a TV camera.
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4:12
‘It’s a two-horse race!’
The pitch is clear, the stunts are naff
At times, party figures seem somewhat astonished the Tories don’t view them as more of a threat, given they were beaten by them in swathes of their traditional heartlands last year.
Going forward, the pitch is clear.
Sir Ed Davey wants to replace the Tories as the party of middle England.
Image: Sir Ed rides on a rollercoaster. Pic: PA
One way he’s trying to do that is through somewhat naff and very much twee campaign stunts.
To open this local election race, the Lib Dem leader straddled a hobbyhorse and galloped through a blue fence.
More recently, he’s brandished a sausage, hopped aboard a rollercoaster and planted wildflowers.
Senior Lib Dems say they are “constantly asking” whether this is the correct strategy, especially given the hardship being faced by many in the country.
They maintain it is helping get their message out though, according to the evidence they have.
“I think you can take the issues that matter to voters seriously while not taking yourself too seriously, and I also think it’s a way of engaging people who are turned off by politics,” said Sir Ed.
Image: Sir Ed on a hobby horse during the launch of the party’s local election campaign in the Walled Garden of Badgemore Park in Henley-on-Thames. Pic: PA
Pic: PA
‘What if people don’t want grown-ups?’
In that way, the Lib Dems are fishing in a similar pool of voters to Reform UK, albeit from the other side of the water’s edge.
Indeed, talk to Lib Dem MPs, and they say while some Reform supporters they meet would never vote for a party with the word “liberal” in its name, others are motivated more by generalised anger than any traditional political ideology.
These people, the MPs say, can be persuaded.
But this group also shows a broader risk to the Lib Dem approach.
Put simply, are they simply too nice for the fractured times we live in?
“The Lib Dems want to be the grown-ups in the room,” says Joe Twyman, director of Delta Poll.
“We like to think that the grown-ups in the room will be rewarded… but what if people don’t want grown-ups in the room, what if people want kids shitting on the floor.”
Image: Sir Ed canoeing in the River Severn in Shrewsbury, Shropshire. Pic: PA
A plan that looks different to the status quo
The party’s answer to this is that they are alive to the trap Lib Dems have walked into in the past of adopting a technocratic tone and blandly telling the public every issue is a “bit more complicated” than it seems.
One senior figure says the Lib Dems are trying to do something quite unusual for a progressive centre-left party in making a broader emotional argument about why the public should pick them.
This source says that approach runs through the stunts but also through the focus on care and the party leader’s personal connection to the issue.
Presenting a plan that looks different to the status quo is another way to try to stand apart.
It’s why there has been a focus on attacking Donald Trump and talking up the EU recently, two areas left unoccupied by the main parties.
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1:09
‘A snivelling cretin’: Your response?
The focus on local campaigning
But beyond the national strategy, Lib Dems believe it’s their local campaigning that really reaps rewards.
In the run-up to the last election, several more regional press officers were recruited.
Many stories pumped out by the media office now have a focus on data that can be broken down to a constituency level and given to local news outlets.
Party sources say there has also been a concerted attempt to get away from the cliche of the Lib Dems constantly calling for parliament to be recalled.
“They beat us to it,” said one staffer of the recent recall to debate British Steel.
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1:08
Steel might have been ‘under orders’ from China
‘Gail’s bakery rule’
This focus on the local is helped by the fact many Lib Dem constituencies now look somewhat similar.
That was evidenced by the apparent “Gail’s bakery rule” last year, in which any constituency with a branch of the upmarket pastry purveyor had activists heaped on it.
The similarities have helped the Lib Dems get away from another cliche – that of the somewhat opportunist targeting of different areas with very different messages.
“There is a certain consistency in where we won that helps explain that higher vote retention,” said Lib Dem president Lord Pack.
“Look at leaflets in different constituencies [last year] and they were much more consistent than previous elections… the messages are fundamentally the same in a way that was not always the case in the past.”
Image: Sir Ed in a swan pedalo on Bude Canal in Cornwall. Pic: PA
A bottom-up campaign machine
New MPs have also been tasked with demonstrating delivery and focusing doggedly on the issues that matter to their constituents.
One Home Counties MP says he wants to be able to send out leaflets by 2027, saying “everyone in this constituency knows someone who has been helped by their local Lib Dem”.
In the run-up to last year’s vote, strategists gave the example of the Lib Dem candidate who was invited to a local ribbon-cutting ceremony in place of the sitting Tory MP as proof of how the party can ingratiate itself into communities.
With that in mind, the aim for these local elections is to pick up councillors in the places the party now has new MPs, allowing them to dig in further and keep building a bottom-up campaign machine.
‘Anyone but Labour or Conservative’
But what of the next general election?
Senior Lib Dems are confident of holding their current 72 seats.
They also point to the fact 20 of their 27 second-place finishes currently have a Conservative MP.
Those will be the main focus, along with the 43 seats in which they finished third.
There’s also an acronym brewing to describe the approach – ABLOC or “Anyone but Labour or Conservative”.
Image: Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch aren’t exactly flying high in the opinion polls
9% swing could make Sir Ed leader of the opposition
The hope is for the political forces to align and Reform UK to continue splitting the Tory vote while unpopularity with the Labour government and Conservative opposition triggers some to jump ship.
A recent pamphlet by Lord Pack showed if the Tories did not make progress against the other parties, just 25 gains from them by the Lib Dems – the equivalent of a 9% swing – would be enough to make Sir Ed leader of the opposition.
What’s more, a majority of these seats would be in the South East and South West, where the party has already picked up big wins.
As for the overall aim of all this, Lord Pack is candid the Lib Dems shouldn’t view a hung parliament as the best way to achieve the big prize of electoral reform because they almost always end badly for the smaller party.
Instead, the Lib Dem president suggests the potential fragmentation of politics could bring electoral reform closer in a more natural way.
“What percentage share of the vote is the most popular party going to get at the next general election, it’s quite plausible that that will be under 30%. Our political system can’t cope with that sort of world,” he said.
Whether Ms Badenoch will still be laughing then remains to be seen.
This is part of a series of local election previews with the five major parties. All five have been invited to take part.
It would be “foolish” to stop engaging with China, the chancellor has said, as Sir Keir Starmer held his first call with Donald Trump since he put 10% tariffs on goods imported from the UK.
Rachel Reeves will hold talks with the US next week amid efforts to establish a trade deal, which the government hopes will take the sting out of the president’s tariffs.
There has been speculation Washington may press the government to limit its dealings with China as part of that deal, having launched a tit-for-tat trade war with its economic rival.
But Ms Reeves told The Daily Telegraph:”China is the second-biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish, to not engage.
“That’s the approach of this government.”
She suggested she would back the fast fashion firm Shein launching an initial public offering (IPO) in the UK, saying the London Stock Exchange and Financial Conduct Authority have “very strict standards” and “we do want to welcome new listings”.
Shein, which was founded in China but is now based in Singapore, has faced several obstacles to its efforts to float, including UK political pressure over alleged supply chain and labour abuses.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump met in February. Pic: PA
‘Productive discussions’
When it comes to a UK-US deal, The Daily Telegraph has reported officials in Washington believe an agreement could be weeks away.
But on Thursday, Mr Trump said he was in “no rush” to reach any deals because of the revenues his new tariffs are generating.
During Sir Keir’s call with the US president on Friday, the two leaders talked about the “ongoing and productive discussions” on trade between the two nations, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
“The prime minister reiterated his commitment to free and open trade and the importance of protecting the national interest,” Number 10 said.
As well as the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.
The health secretary is taking inspiration from Japan in his bid to change how Britons are treated by the NHS.
Wes Streeting has said he’s interested in the idea of “health MOTs” for Britain’s older citizens, evoking how the Asian island nation relies on personalised medical plans for its ageing population.
Japan combines genomics and AI machine learning to offer hyper-bespoke programmes for individuals, helping to predict and prevent illnesses before they really take hold.
Mr Streeting said such an approach could be a “game-changer” in the UK, as he prepares to publish his 10-year plan for the health service later in 2025.
He has repeatedly spoken about his desire to move more of the NHS’s work out of hospitals and into local communities, focusing more on preventative care than more expensive and invasive emergency treatment.
Last year, NHS England – which is due to be scrapped – announced patients over 65 or those with frailty-related conditions would be given health MOTs outside emergency departments to avoid unnecessary admissions.
The tests checked for blood pressure, heart health and mobility.
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3:05
Why has Starmer axed NHS England?
‘A lot of opportunity’
Speaking to The Telegraph, the minister said Japan was an “interesting” case study to follow because it’s got a “very significant ageing society”.
Japan’s population has been shrinking and growing older for decades as young people delay marriage and having children largely due to unstable jobs and economic difficulties.
Mr Streeting has reportedly been briefed by an ex-Japanese health official about the country’s health programmes.
He told The Telegraph while the NHS faced “enormous challenges”, he believed advances in technology – notably around artificial intelligence – offered “a lot of opportunity and hope”.
He said he hoped personalised programmes like Japan’s could eventually be offered to everyone in the UK.