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There could be nearly 100,000 fewer top A-level grades awarded this year compared with 2022, an education expert has suggested.

Professor Alan Smithers’ report says almost 50,000 students could miss out on getting the A* and A grades they could have expected last year if this summer’s grading returns to pre-pandemic standards.

He predicts around 10% of grades will be an A* and around 27.5% will be an A this year, compared with 2022 when 14.6% of grades were an A* and 36.4% an A.

In 2019, 7.8% of grades were an A* and 25.5% were an A.

The government has said the number of A* and A grades awarded in England should fall back to pre-pandemic levels as exams return to normal.

Prof Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, expects the number of top A-level grades to fall significantly but not by quite as much as the government requested, as was the case last year.

The expert says teachers developed a “taste for awarding top grades” in some subjects during the COVID pandemic which markers will be “reluctant to relinquish”.

More on A-levels

He said: “During the teacher assessment years, many students and their parents will have developed unreasonable expectations.

“Whatever the extent to which top grades are brought down this year, the drop will lead to a lot of disappointment and probably a huge increase in the number of appeals.”

Prof Smithers also said disruption from teacher strikes may have led exam boards to be more lenient.

He said the percentage of top grades in performing arts and practical subjects increased sharply during the pandemic when grades were based on teacher assessments.

That figure rose less steeply for science and maths because pupils studying those subjects were already getting more top grades before the pandemic.

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2022 A-level grades lower than previous two years but higher than pre-pandemic levels
Pre-COVID A-level grading returns in 2022

However, last year more top grades were awarded for music and performing arts than physics and chemistry despite the return of exams, suggesting a “profound change” which may make it more difficult to cut the number of top grades awarded back to 2019 levels.

This trend led to girls receiving far more A* grades than boys, who had previously had the edge because far more of them studied subjects where pupils can “manifestly amass right answers”.

If more A* grades continue to be awarded for arts and humanities than before the pandemic, this could mean boys do not regain their lead.

Pupils in Northern Ireland expected to get best results

Prof Smithers said he expects pupils in Northern Ireland to get the best results, as they have done for many years, followed by those in Wales and then England.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “This year, GCSE and A-level grading is largely returning to normal, in line with plans set out by Ofqual [which regulates exams] almost two years ago, to make sure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.

“This means national results are expected to be similar to those in pre-pandemic years, and a student should be just as likely to achieve a particular grade this year as they would have been before the pandemic.

“The number of top grades also has no bearing on the number of university places available.”

A spokeswoman for Ofqual said: “This year we expect exam grades to go back to similar levels to 2019, which was the last year before the pandemic.”

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes $3.8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes .8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

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CMBI’s tokenization initiative with BNB Chain builds on its previous work with Singapore-based DigiFT, which tokenized its fund on Solana in August.

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

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