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There could be nearly 100,000 fewer top A-level grades awarded this year compared with 2022, an education expert has suggested.

Professor Alan Smithers’ report says almost 50,000 students could miss out on getting the A* and A grades they could have expected last year if this summer’s grading returns to pre-pandemic standards.

He predicts around 10% of grades will be an A* and around 27.5% will be an A this year, compared with 2022 when 14.6% of grades were an A* and 36.4% an A.

In 2019, 7.8% of grades were an A* and 25.5% were an A.

The government has said the number of A* and A grades awarded in England should fall back to pre-pandemic levels as exams return to normal.

Prof Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, expects the number of top A-level grades to fall significantly but not by quite as much as the government requested, as was the case last year.

The expert says teachers developed a “taste for awarding top grades” in some subjects during the COVID pandemic which markers will be “reluctant to relinquish”.

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He said: “During the teacher assessment years, many students and their parents will have developed unreasonable expectations.

“Whatever the extent to which top grades are brought down this year, the drop will lead to a lot of disappointment and probably a huge increase in the number of appeals.”

Prof Smithers also said disruption from teacher strikes may have led exam boards to be more lenient.

He said the percentage of top grades in performing arts and practical subjects increased sharply during the pandemic when grades were based on teacher assessments.

That figure rose less steeply for science and maths because pupils studying those subjects were already getting more top grades before the pandemic.

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2022 A-level grades lower than previous two years but higher than pre-pandemic levels
Pre-COVID A-level grading returns in 2022

However, last year more top grades were awarded for music and performing arts than physics and chemistry despite the return of exams, suggesting a “profound change” which may make it more difficult to cut the number of top grades awarded back to 2019 levels.

This trend led to girls receiving far more A* grades than boys, who had previously had the edge because far more of them studied subjects where pupils can “manifestly amass right answers”.

If more A* grades continue to be awarded for arts and humanities than before the pandemic, this could mean boys do not regain their lead.

Pupils in Northern Ireland expected to get best results

Prof Smithers said he expects pupils in Northern Ireland to get the best results, as they have done for many years, followed by those in Wales and then England.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “This year, GCSE and A-level grading is largely returning to normal, in line with plans set out by Ofqual [which regulates exams] almost two years ago, to make sure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.

“This means national results are expected to be similar to those in pre-pandemic years, and a student should be just as likely to achieve a particular grade this year as they would have been before the pandemic.

“The number of top grades also has no bearing on the number of university places available.”

A spokeswoman for Ofqual said: “This year we expect exam grades to go back to similar levels to 2019, which was the last year before the pandemic.”

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CZ sounds alarm as ‘SEAL’ team uncovers 60 fake IT workers linked to North Korea

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CZ sounds alarm as ‘SEAL’ team uncovers 60 fake IT workers linked to North Korea

CZ sounds alarm as ‘SEAL’ team uncovers 60 fake IT workers linked to North Korea

Binance co-founder warned about North Korean hackers after the white hat SEAL team uncovered the profiles and fake names of 60 impersonators.

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First Channel migrant deported to France under ‘one in, one out’ deal

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First Channel migrant deported to France under 'one in, one out' deal

The first Channel migrant has been deported to France under Sir Keir Starmer’s ‘one in, one out’ deal.

The home office confirmed that a man who arrived by small boat in August was sent back on a commercial fight earlier this morning.

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Further flights are due to take place this week and next week, while the first arrivals through the new legal route are expected to arrive in the coming days.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said: “This is an important first step to securing our borders. It sends a message to people crossing in small boats: if you enter the UK illegally, we will seek to remove you.”

The treaty with France was agreed in July and came into force last month.

It allows the UK to send back a migrant who crosses the Channel illegally in exchange for accepting the same number of migrants in France who have a valid asylum claim.

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Today’s news will be seen as a win for ministers after the high court blocked the deportation of another individual on Wednesday.

An Eritrean man was granted 14 days to make representations to support his claim that he was a victim of modern slavery.

The home office has lodged an appeal to limit the time the person has to provide evidence for reconsideration, while a “rapid review” of modern slavery legislation has been launched to prevent it misuse.

Ms Mahmood said she will “challenge any last-minute, vexatious attempts to frustrate a removal in the courts”.

“The UK will always play its part in helping those genuinely fleeing persecution, but this must be done through safe, legal, and managed routes – not dangerous crossings,” she added.

The number of migrants arriving in the UK after crossing the English Channel has topped 30,000 for the year so far.

It is the earliest point in a calendar year at which the 30,000 mark has been passed since data on the crossings was first reported in 2018.

The government has come under immense pressure to get a grip on the issue.

A survey for Sky News last week found immigration is the top concern of voters for the first time since Brexit.

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It is hoped the new scheme will act as a deterrent by persuading migrants not to pay people smugglers to help them get to the UK knowing there is a risk they could be detained and deported.

The government has stressed that although the numbers will start off small, they expect removals to be ramped up over time as the scheme is tested.

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SEC approves first US multi-asset crypto ETP, from Grayscale

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SEC approves first US multi-asset crypto ETP, from Grayscale

SEC approves first US multi-asset crypto ETP, from Grayscale

The SEC approved Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund, the first US multi-asset crypto ETP offering exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and Cardano.

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