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The government will fail to meet its asylum backlog target without a drastic increase in the processing of applications, a Sky News analysis has found.

At present, there are more than 136,000 asylum applications waiting for an initial decision, including 62,000 that were made before 28 June 2022 – the so-called “legacy backlog”.

In December Rishi Sunak pledged to clear the legacy backlog by the end of 2023. Since then, however, the Home Office has processed just 936 such cases per week.

If the prime minister is to meet his target of clearing all 62,000 remaining cases this year, the Home Office will need to work more than three times as fast.

At current rates, there are set to be more than 41,000 legacy backlog cases remaining by the end of the year.

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Home Office figures released today show that the prime minister is struggling to make an impact in another key area of asylum policy: the use of expensive contingency accommodation, such as hotels and B&Bs, to house asylum seekers.

Mr Sunak pledged to end the practice in December, which cost the Home Office £2.3bn in the year to March. However, new data shows the number being housed in hotels has risen from 45,775 to 50,456.

That number is unlikely to be significantly impacted by today’s arrival of the first asylum seekers on the Bibby Stockholm, a barge purchased by the government to reduce the number of claimants staying in hotels.

Fewer than 50 people are set to board the vessel today, which has a total capacity of 500. The government has said it hopes the barge will reach full capacity by the end of the week.

Even if the barge is filled, however, it will only be able to house about 1% of the 50,456 asylum seekers currently staying in hotels.

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As a result, the barge is unlikely to put much of a dent in the government’s £2.3bn bill for contingency accommodation.

That cost has ballooned in recent years amid the growing asylum backlog and a chronic shortage of accommodation.

There are more than 136,000 asylum applications awaiting an initial decision, up from about 30,000 in 2019 and less than 6,000 in 2010.

Numbers have increased sharply over the past year as a result of a surge in applications, including from thousands arriving via small boats.

Even before the recent increase, however, the Home Office was struggling to keep up with the number of people applying.

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Dr Peter Walsh, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory, a research institute at the University of Oxford, told Sky News that Home Office caseworkers are struggling to process claims efficiently.

“It used to be that the average decision maker roughly five years ago was making about 100 decisions a year and that’s now fallen to 25,” he said.

“Why? Well, the immigration inspector highlighted use of antiquated IT systems, and also low morale and a lack of training. People are going into the role without any experience of the asylum system.

“And staff turnover is very high. That’s a problem because it takes anywhere between a year and 18 months to become proficient in the role. But people are actually quitting before that period because their morale is so low.”

The fact that applications are coming in at a faster rate than they are being processed means that the backlog is growing – counteracting the government’s progress in dealing with legacy cases.

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Not only has the number of decisions not kept pace with the number of applications, but the government has also been struggling to remove those whose claims are rejected or withdrawn.

The number of asylum seekers removed from the UK fell by more than half (54%) in the five years to 2019, before halving again in 2020 amid pandemic restrictions on air travel.

The number of removals has since risen, but remains far below where it was in previous years.

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“The challenge the government faces is getting countries to take back their citizens if they failed to get asylum in the UK,” says Mr Walsh.

“It’s not entirely clear why that is, but that absolutely is a problem. Countries were not taking people back and the UK doesn’t have the kinds of agreements with countries that would enable them to return citizens to their countries of nationality. It’s a really, really tough challenge the government faces.”

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Rwanda plan won’t dent the backlog

Another key plank of the government’s plan to deal with the backlog came into force last month.

The government hopes to cut the backlog by removing asylum seekers to Rwanda before they can lodge their claims in the UK, as part of a deal signed with the African state in April 2022.

Legal challenges have prevented any asylum seekers from being sent to Rwanda so far, but if the scheme does get off the ground the Rwandan government has indicated it can handle up to 200 applications per year.

By comparison, the UK received more than 75,000 asylum applications in 2022, including 44,896 from people arriving in small boats.

Had the Rwanda agreement been up and running last year, it would have cut the number of small boat asylum claims processed in the UK by just 0.4%.

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That means the Rwanda plan is unlikely to have any significant effect on the asylum.

Similarly, the opening of the Bibby Stockholm is unlikely to have much of an effect on the use of hotels to house asylum seekers.

In both cases, the government’s hopes are likely to rest not on their direct effect, but on their ability to reduce the number of people applying by presenting the UK as a hostile environment for asylum seekers.

“Part of this is about messaging and the symbolic aspect of the policy,” says Mr Walsh.

“Maybe it might have some deterrent effect. Of course, that’s not clear yet. But in terms of just the raw numbers, 500 doesn’t make a particularly big dent.

“So, if small boat arrivals continue at the rate that they are at present, that accommodation could very quickly be used up requiring the government to continue to use hotels, to continue to invest resources in retrofitting these disused military facilities and so on and so forth.

“This is really just a sticking plaster in the grand scheme of things.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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The Belgrave Circle effect is hitting UK politics

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The Belgrave Circle effect is hitting UK politics

This is a story about a roundabout in Leicester.

It’s not a particularly special roundabout.

But it does tell us something about British politics.

Belgrave Circle, in the north of the city, was opened in March 2015 on the site of an old railway station known locally as “The Gateway to Skegness”.

Later that year, Leicester – along with the rest of the country – went to the polls in the 2015 general election.

The vote saw David Cameron win a majority and Ed Miliband resign as Labour leader.

But around the Belgrave Circle, something different was going on.

Because this is the spot where Leicester‘s three parliamentary constituencies meet, and in 2015 they were all held by Labour MPs who saw their majorities increase.

It’s a different story now.

Stand in the middle of the roundabout and face towards Abbey Park and you’ll see the city’s only remaining Labour seat – that of cabinet minister Liz Kendall.

Liz Kendall (left) and Jonathan Ashworth's (right) constituencies used to meet at Belgrave Circle roundabout until Ashworth lost his seat. Pic: AP
Image:
Liz Kendall (left) and Jonathan Ashworth’s (right) constituencies used to meet at Belgrave Circle roundabout until Ashworth lost his seat. Pic: AP

Turn around and face the B&M Home Store, and you’ll find the only place the Conservatives picked up at the last election.

This freak occurrence happened after the Labour vote was split by two independent candidates – both of whom also happened to be former MPs for the city.

Labour saw its vote share cut in half here, and then some.

The Tory vote dropped as well, but not by enough to stop the party coming through the middle and taking the seat by four thousand votes.

But walk to the south of this roundabout and you’ll get to where an independent candidate went one step further.

Local optician Shockat Adam won this seat last year, defeating frontbencher Jonathan Ashworth in a campaign focused mainly on Gaza and events in the Middle East.

Labour have begun painting themselves as the "bulwark" to Nigel Farage. Pic: PA
Image:
Labour have begun painting themselves as the “bulwark” to Nigel Farage. Pic: PA

What happened on this roundabout last July is no one-off. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest these phenomena could be on the rise around the country.

Since the election, Labour’s vote share has plunged, and its base has fractured as support for insurgent parties on the right and left surges.

A lot of the focus from this has been on Reform UK and how Labour can stop Nigel Farage in traditional ‘red wall’ seats in the midlands and the north.

And yes, Labour is leaking support to Reform on the right. But what’s often not talked about is the greater number of votes its losing on the left.

If the Greens do well, it could split the left wing vote, clearing the way for another party to win in a roundabout way
Image:
If the Greens do well, it could split the left wing vote, clearing the way for another party to win in a roundabout way

A rejuvenated Green Party under Zack Polanski is chasing Labour close in some polls, while Your Party is attempting to form a separate fighting force straddling ex-Corbynites, independent pro-Gaza candidates and those from the more hard-left tradition.

Come the next election, this could all have far-reaching consequences.

Sky News has ranked all 404 Labour seats according to how at risk they are to these new forces on the left. We created this ‘vulnerability index’ using factors like voting history, population and demographic data.

It shows several cabinet ministers in the top 25 most vulnerable, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood in fourth place, Sir Keir Starmer in thirteenth place and Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy in twenty-third place.

All three of these Labour big beasts have seen their majorities cut in the last election by a Green candidate, an independent candidate or a mix of the two.

In Birmingham Ladywood, the total number of votes won by independent and green candidates exceed the number won by the Home Secretary.

That could trigger trouble, given the Greens and Your Party have indicated they may be open to the idea of local “progressive pacts”.

But in the neighbouring constituency of Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North, the result last year shows how an altogether different result could materialise.

Here, Labour’s vote was again split by a left-wing insurgent candidate – this time from George Galloway’s Workers Party.

But the conservative vote was also cut in half by Reform.

If Nigel Farage can unite the right in places like this, he could come through the middle – in much the same way the Tories did in Leicester.

Keir Starmer's constituency ranks thirteenth on Sky's vunerability index. David Lammy's is twenty third.
Image:
Keir Starmer’s constituency ranks thirteenth on Sky’s vunerability index. David Lammy’s is twenty third.

So how can the government fight back?

Part of the answer, according to senior figures, is attempting to tell a more appealing story about the more overly left-wing chunks of their policy platform – such as the workers rights reforms and rental overhaul.

The hope is these stories may be given more of a hearing in 2026 when (or perhaps more accurately, if) a corner starts to be turned on big domestic priorities like the economy, the NHS and migration.

If that doesn’t happen, the real saving grace for Labour could be tactical voting.

The Greens and Your Party have made it clear that they will plough on with their campaigns against the government, even if it ultimately benefits Reform.

Read more from Sky News:
Australia launches intelligence review
Engineer becomes first wheelchair user in space

If Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage split the right wing vote, it may allow Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or another party to come through the middle
Image:
If Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage split the right wing vote, it may allow Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or another party to come through the middle

What’s less clear is whether left-wingers across the country will.

If they are faced with the prospect of Nigel Farage in Downing Street, could they hold their nose and stick with Labour?

It all begs the question – who is their great enemy: the government or Reform?

Ministers are already trying to emphasise a binary choice when they talk about Labour being the one single “bulwark” to Nigel Farage.

Expect more attempts to mobilise this anti-Reform vote in the years ahead.

But that’s made more difficult by what happened around Leicester’s Belgrave Circle. The same political fracturing that’s dogged the right in years past now being replicated on the left.

Labour’s ability to pick up the electoral pieces may prove decisive in whether what took place on a shabby East Midlands roundabout in July 2024 is recreated across the country in a few years’ time.

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US lawmakers push to fix staking ‘double taxation’ before 2026

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US lawmakers push to fix staking ‘double taxation’ before 2026

A group of 18 bipartisan US House lawmakers is pushing the country’s tax agency to review its rules on crypto staking taxes before the start of 2026. 

In a letter sent to Internal Revenue Service acting commissioner Scott Bessent on Friday, the lawmakers, led by Republican Mike Carey, asked for a review and update guidance on “burdensome” crypto staking tax laws.

“This letter is simply requesting fair tax treatment for digital assets and ending the double taxation of staking rewards is a big step in the right direction,” Carey said

The letter calls for taxes from staking rewards to be applied at the time of sale, so that “stakers are taxed based on a correct statement of their actual economic gain.”

Mike Carey is leading lawmakers to change crypto staking tax rules. Source: Mike Carey

The lawmakers argued that the current laws, which see stakers taxed upon receiving rewards and again when selling them, are hindering participation in the staking market, when the laws should be designed to support a fundamental part of certain blockchains. 

Related: Crypto community ‘very sorry’ over Senator Lummis’ reelection decision

“Millions of Americans own tokens on these networks. Network security — and American leadership — requires those taxpayers to stake those tokens, but today the administrative burden and prospect of over taxation discourages that participation,” the lawmakers wrote.

The letter concludes by asking if there are any administrative barriers to updating the guidance before the end of the year, and asserts that they should be changed to support the current administration’s goal of “strengthening US leadership in digital asset innovation.”

Not the only push for changes to crypto tax rules

On Saturday, House representatives Max Miller and Steven Horsford also introduced a discussion draft aiming to ease the tax obligations on crypto users by exempting small stablecoin transactions from capital gains taxes and offering a deferral option for staking and mining rewards.