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The government will fail to meet its asylum backlog target without a drastic increase in the processing of applications, a Sky News analysis has found.

At present, there are more than 136,000 asylum applications waiting for an initial decision, including 62,000 that were made before 28 June 2022 – the so-called “legacy backlog”.

In December Rishi Sunak pledged to clear the legacy backlog by the end of 2023. Since then, however, the Home Office has processed just 936 such cases per week.

If the prime minister is to meet his target of clearing all 62,000 remaining cases this year, the Home Office will need to work more than three times as fast.

At current rates, there are set to be more than 41,000 legacy backlog cases remaining by the end of the year.

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Home Office figures released today show that the prime minister is struggling to make an impact in another key area of asylum policy: the use of expensive contingency accommodation, such as hotels and B&Bs, to house asylum seekers.

Mr Sunak pledged to end the practice in December, which cost the Home Office £2.3bn in the year to March. However, new data shows the number being housed in hotels has risen from 45,775 to 50,456.

That number is unlikely to be significantly impacted by today’s arrival of the first asylum seekers on the Bibby Stockholm, a barge purchased by the government to reduce the number of claimants staying in hotels.

Fewer than 50 people are set to board the vessel today, which has a total capacity of 500. The government has said it hopes the barge will reach full capacity by the end of the week.

Even if the barge is filled, however, it will only be able to house about 1% of the 50,456 asylum seekers currently staying in hotels.

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As a result, the barge is unlikely to put much of a dent in the government’s £2.3bn bill for contingency accommodation.

That cost has ballooned in recent years amid the growing asylum backlog and a chronic shortage of accommodation.

There are more than 136,000 asylum applications awaiting an initial decision, up from about 30,000 in 2019 and less than 6,000 in 2010.

Numbers have increased sharply over the past year as a result of a surge in applications, including from thousands arriving via small boats.

Even before the recent increase, however, the Home Office was struggling to keep up with the number of people applying.

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Dr Peter Walsh, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory, a research institute at the University of Oxford, told Sky News that Home Office caseworkers are struggling to process claims efficiently.

“It used to be that the average decision maker roughly five years ago was making about 100 decisions a year and that’s now fallen to 25,” he said.

“Why? Well, the immigration inspector highlighted use of antiquated IT systems, and also low morale and a lack of training. People are going into the role without any experience of the asylum system.

“And staff turnover is very high. That’s a problem because it takes anywhere between a year and 18 months to become proficient in the role. But people are actually quitting before that period because their morale is so low.”

The fact that applications are coming in at a faster rate than they are being processed means that the backlog is growing – counteracting the government’s progress in dealing with legacy cases.

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Not only has the number of decisions not kept pace with the number of applications, but the government has also been struggling to remove those whose claims are rejected or withdrawn.

The number of asylum seekers removed from the UK fell by more than half (54%) in the five years to 2019, before halving again in 2020 amid pandemic restrictions on air travel.

The number of removals has since risen, but remains far below where it was in previous years.

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“The challenge the government faces is getting countries to take back their citizens if they failed to get asylum in the UK,” says Mr Walsh.

“It’s not entirely clear why that is, but that absolutely is a problem. Countries were not taking people back and the UK doesn’t have the kinds of agreements with countries that would enable them to return citizens to their countries of nationality. It’s a really, really tough challenge the government faces.”

Read more:
Analysis: PM’s barge promise just a smokescreen
Could migrants be sent to isolated volcanic island?

Rwanda plan won’t dent the backlog

Another key plank of the government’s plan to deal with the backlog came into force last month.

The government hopes to cut the backlog by removing asylum seekers to Rwanda before they can lodge their claims in the UK, as part of a deal signed with the African state in April 2022.

Legal challenges have prevented any asylum seekers from being sent to Rwanda so far, but if the scheme does get off the ground the Rwandan government has indicated it can handle up to 200 applications per year.

By comparison, the UK received more than 75,000 asylum applications in 2022, including 44,896 from people arriving in small boats.

Had the Rwanda agreement been up and running last year, it would have cut the number of small boat asylum claims processed in the UK by just 0.4%.

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That means the Rwanda plan is unlikely to have any significant effect on the asylum.

Similarly, the opening of the Bibby Stockholm is unlikely to have much of an effect on the use of hotels to house asylum seekers.

In both cases, the government’s hopes are likely to rest not on their direct effect, but on their ability to reduce the number of people applying by presenting the UK as a hostile environment for asylum seekers.

“Part of this is about messaging and the symbolic aspect of the policy,” says Mr Walsh.

“Maybe it might have some deterrent effect. Of course, that’s not clear yet. But in terms of just the raw numbers, 500 doesn’t make a particularly big dent.

“So, if small boat arrivals continue at the rate that they are at present, that accommodation could very quickly be used up requiring the government to continue to use hotels, to continue to invest resources in retrofitting these disused military facilities and so on and so forth.

“This is really just a sticking plaster in the grand scheme of things.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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The Lib Dems want to be the nice guys of politics – but is that what voters want?

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The Lib Dems want to be the nice guys of politics - but is that what voters want?

Lib Dems don’t tend to listen to right-wing podcasts.

But if they did, they may be heartened by some of what they hear.

Take the interview Kemi Badenoch gave to the TRIGGERnometry show in February.

Ten minutes into the episode, one of the hosts recounts a conversation with a Tory MP who said the party lost the last election to the Lib Dems because they went too far to the right.

Everyone laughs.

Then in March, in a conversation with the Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson, the Tory leader was asked to describe a Liberal Democrat.

“Somebody who is good at fixing their church roof,” said Ms Badenoch.

She meant it as a negative.

Lib Dems now mention it every time you go near any of them with a TV camera.

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‘It’s a two-horse race!’

The pitch is clear, the stunts are naff

At times, party figures seem somewhat astonished the Tories don’t view them as more of a threat, given they were beaten by them in swathes of their traditional heartlands last year.

Going forward, the pitch is clear.

Sir Ed Davey wants to replace the Tories as the party of middle England.

Ed Davey rides on a rollercoaster during a visit to the BIG Sheep theme park in Bideford.
Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Ed rides on a rollercoaster. Pic: PA

One way he’s trying to do that is through somewhat naff and very much twee campaign stunts.

To open this local election race, the Lib Dem leader straddled a hobbyhorse and galloped through a blue fence.

More recently, he’s brandished a sausage, hopped aboard a rollercoaster and planted wildflowers.

Senior Lib Dems say they are “constantly asking” whether this is the correct strategy, especially given the hardship being faced by many in the country.

They maintain it is helping get their message out though, according to the evidence they have.

“I think you can take the issues that matter to voters seriously while not taking yourself too seriously, and I also think it’s a way of engaging people who are turned off by politics,” said Sir Ed.

Ed Davey tries his hand at hobby horsing during the launch of the party's local election campaign in Walled Garden of Badgemore Park in Henley-on-Thames.
Pic: PA
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Sir Ed on a hobby horse during the launch of the party’s local election campaign in the Walled Garden of Badgemore Park in Henley-on-Thames. Pic: PA
Pic: PA


‘What if people don’t want grown-ups?’

In that way, the Lib Dems are fishing in a similar pool of voters to Reform UK, albeit from the other side of the water’s edge.

Indeed, talk to Lib Dem MPs, and they say while some Reform supporters they meet would never vote for a party with the word “liberal” in its name, others are motivated more by generalised anger than any traditional political ideology.

These people, the MPs say, can be persuaded.

But this group also shows a broader risk to the Lib Dem approach.

Put simply, are they simply too nice for the fractured times we live in?

“The Lib Dems want to be the grown-ups in the room,” says Joe Twyman, director of Delta Poll.

“We like to think that the grown-ups in the room will be rewarded… but what if people don’t want grown-ups in the room, what if people want kids shitting on the floor.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey canoeing in the River Severn in Shrewsbury with North Shropshire MP Helen Morgan, while on the local election campaign trail. Picture date: Friday April 11, 2025.
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Sir Ed canoeing in the River Severn in Shrewsbury, Shropshire. Pic: PA

A plan that looks different to the status quo

The party’s answer to this is that they are alive to the trap Lib Dems have walked into in the past of adopting a technocratic tone and blandly telling the public every issue is a “bit more complicated” than it seems.

One senior figure says the Lib Dems are trying to do something quite unusual for a progressive centre-left party in making a broader emotional argument about why the public should pick them.

This source says that approach runs through the stunts but also through the focus on care and the party leader’s personal connection to the issue.

Presenting a plan that looks different to the status quo is another way to try to stand apart.

It’s why there has been a focus on attacking Donald Trump and talking up the EU recently, two areas left unoccupied by the main parties.

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‘A snivelling cretin’: Your response?

The focus on local campaigning

But beyond the national strategy, Lib Dems believe it’s their local campaigning that really reaps rewards.

In the run-up to the last election, several more regional press officers were recruited.

Many stories pumped out by the media office now have a focus on data that can be broken down to a constituency level and given to local news outlets.

Party sources say there has also been a concerted attempt to get away from the cliche of the Lib Dems constantly calling for parliament to be recalled.

“They beat us to it,” said one staffer of the recent recall to debate British Steel.

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Steel might have been ‘under orders’ from China

‘Gail’s bakery rule’

This focus on the local is helped by the fact many Lib Dem constituencies now look somewhat similar.

That was evidenced by the apparent “Gail’s bakery rule” last year, in which any constituency with a branch of the upmarket pastry purveyor had activists heaped on it.

The similarities have helped the Lib Dems get away from another cliche – that of the somewhat opportunist targeting of different areas with very different messages.

“There is a certain consistency in where we won that helps explain that higher vote retention,” said Lib Dem president Lord Pack.

“Look at leaflets in different constituencies [last year] and they were much more consistent than previous elections… the messages are fundamentally the same in a way that was not always the case in the past.”

Ed Davey in a swan pedalo on Bude Canal in Bude, Cornwall.
Pic: PA
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Sir Ed in a swan pedalo on Bude Canal in Cornwall. Pic: PA

A bottom-up campaign machine

New MPs have also been tasked with demonstrating delivery and focusing doggedly on the issues that matter to their constituents.

One Home Counties MP says he wants to be able to send out leaflets by 2027, saying “everyone in this constituency knows someone who has been helped by their local Lib Dem”.

In the run-up to last year’s vote, strategists gave the example of the Lib Dem candidate who was invited to a local ribbon-cutting ceremony in place of the sitting Tory MP as proof of how the party can ingratiate itself into communities.

With that in mind, the aim for these local elections is to pick up councillors in the places the party now has new MPs, allowing them to dig in further and keep building a bottom-up campaign machine.

‘Anyone but Labour or Conservative’

But what of the next general election?

Senior Lib Dems are confident of holding their current 72 seats.

They also point to the fact 20 of their 27 second-place finishes currently have a Conservative MP.

Those will be the main focus, along with the 43 seats in which they finished third.

There’s also an acronym brewing to describe the approach – ABLOC or “Anyone but Labour or Conservative”.

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Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch aren’t exactly flying high in the opinion polls

9% swing could make Sir Ed leader of the opposition

The hope is for the political forces to align and Reform UK to continue splitting the Tory vote while unpopularity with the Labour government and Conservative opposition triggers some to jump ship.

A recent pamphlet by Lord Pack showed if the Tories did not make progress against the other parties, just 25 gains from them by the Lib Dems – the equivalent of a 9% swing – would be enough to make Sir Ed leader of the opposition.

What’s more, a majority of these seats would be in the South East and South West, where the party has already picked up big wins.

As for the overall aim of all this, Lord Pack is candid the Lib Dems shouldn’t view a hung parliament as the best way to achieve the big prize of electoral reform because they almost always end badly for the smaller party.

Instead, the Lib Dem president suggests the potential fragmentation of politics could bring electoral reform closer in a more natural way.

“What percentage share of the vote is the most popular party going to get at the next general election, it’s quite plausible that that will be under 30%. Our political system can’t cope with that sort of world,” he said.

Whether Ms Badenoch will still be laughing then remains to be seen.

This is part of a series of local election previews with the five major parties. All five have been invited to take part.

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PM and Trump step up trade talks – as chancellor warns it’s ‘foolish’ not to engage with China

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PM and Trump step up trade talks - as chancellor warns it's 'foolish' not to engage with China

It would be “foolish” to stop engaging with China, the chancellor has said, as Sir Keir Starmer held his first call with Donald Trump since he put 10% tariffs on goods imported from the UK.

Rachel Reeves will hold talks with the US next week amid efforts to establish a trade deal, which the government hopes will take the sting out of the president’s tariffs.

There has been speculation Washington may press the government to limit its dealings with China as part of that deal, having launched a tit-for-tat trade war with its economic rival.

But Ms Reeves told The Daily Telegraph:”China is the second-biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish, to not engage.

“That’s the approach of this government.”

She suggested she would back the fast fashion firm Shein launching an initial public offering (IPO) in the UK, saying the London Stock Exchange and Financial Conduct Authority have “very strict standards” and “we do want to welcome new listings”.

Shein, which was founded in China but is now based in Singapore, has faced several obstacles to its efforts to float, including UK political pressure over alleged supply chain and labour abuses.

Read more from Sky News:
Trump says he might give up on Ukraine peace talks
Pub hours extended for 80th VE Day celebrations

How Japan could shape the future of the NHS

Sir Keir Starmer the Trump charmer.
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Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump met in February. Pic: PA

‘Productive discussions’

When it comes to a UK-US deal, The Daily Telegraph has reported officials in Washington believe an agreement could be weeks away.

But on Thursday, Mr Trump said he was in “no rush” to reach any deals because of the revenues his new tariffs are generating.

During Sir Keir’s call with the US president on Friday, the two leaders talked about the “ongoing and productive discussions” on trade between the two nations, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.

“The prime minister reiterated his commitment to free and open trade and the importance of protecting the national interest,” Number 10 said.

As well as the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.

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How Japan could shape the future of the NHS

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How Japan could shape the future of the NHS

The health secretary is taking inspiration from Japan in his bid to change how Britons are treated by the NHS.

Wes Streeting has said he’s interested in the idea of “health MOTs” for Britain’s older citizens, evoking how the Asian island nation relies on personalised medical plans for its ageing population.

Japan combines genomics and AI machine learning to offer hyper-bespoke programmes for individuals, helping to predict and prevent illnesses before they really take hold.

Mr Streeting said such an approach could be a “game-changer” in the UK, as he prepares to publish his 10-year plan for the health service later in 2025.

He has repeatedly spoken about his desire to move more of the NHS’s work out of hospitals and into local communities, focusing more on preventative care than more expensive and invasive emergency treatment.

Last year, NHS England – which is due to be scrapped – announced patients over 65 or those with frailty-related conditions would be given health MOTs outside emergency departments to avoid unnecessary admissions.

The tests checked for blood pressure, heart health and mobility.

Read more from Sky News:
Why families face agonising funeral delays
‘Andrew Tate phenomena’ sweeping schools

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Why has Starmer axed NHS England?

‘A lot of opportunity’

Speaking to The Telegraph, the minister said Japan was an “interesting” case study to follow because it’s got a “very significant ageing society”.

Japan’s population has been shrinking and growing older for decades as young people delay marriage and having children largely due to unstable jobs and economic difficulties.

A 2023 survey found more than 1 in 10 people in Japan were aged 80 or older for the first time.

Mr Streeting has reportedly been briefed by an ex-Japanese health official about the country’s health programmes.

He told The Telegraph while the NHS faced “enormous challenges”, he believed advances in technology – notably around artificial intelligence – offered “a lot of opportunity and hope”.

He said he hoped personalised programmes like Japan’s could eventually be offered to everyone in the UK.

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