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Food prices may not fall at all, the chief economist at the Bank of England has said.

The cost of sustenance “could still remain higher than it was” before the invasion of Ukraine caused the rate of food price rises to accelerate.

“Unfortunately the days of seeing food prices fall, that does seem to be something that we may not be seeing for a little while yet, if in the future at all”, Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, said.

Speaking at a Q&A on the cost of living, Mr Pill said even if the rate of food inflation slows, food will still be more expensive than it had been, with the effects of food inflation “going to take longer to dissipate”.

Official figures show food inflation stood at 17.3% in the 12 months up to June, when the overall consumer price index measure of inflation was 7.9%.

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The UK has been particularly impacted by rising food prices. Mr Pill said “that impact on food prices in the UK has been a little bit more long-lasting than would have been expected on the back of past behaviour”.

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He placed the blame at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which scrambled the supply chain of staples grown in Ukraine such as wheat and sunflower oil, and brought up costs of raw materials and basic food.

One explanation for why the UK has been hard hit by this is UK companies responded to the price uncertainty, in the wake of the invasion, by locking in expensive contracts, Mr Pill said.

“Some firms decided to sort of lock in their purchases of commodities in international markets in order to reduce that uncertainty, but potentially locked in at quite high levels of prices and they’re still passing that through the system into what ultimately we’re paying for in shops,” he said.

Prices rises will begin to slow as those contracts come to an end and food sub processors in the UK adjust to the end of supply disruption, he added.

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Nationwide kicks off search for successor to chairman

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Nationwide kicks off search for successor to chairman

Nationwide, Britain’s biggest building society, is kicking off a search for its next chairman, months after it completed the biggest takeover deal in its 142-year history.

Sky News has learnt that Nationwide is working with headhunters to identify a successor to Kevin Parry, who has chaired the mutual since 2022.

Mr Parry has been on the building society’s board since 2016, meaning he is ‘timed out’ under the corporate governance guidelines applied to listed companies.

Although owned by its 16m members rather than listed on the public markets, Nationwide adheres to comparable governance principles.

One of Britain’s biggest high street financial services groups, it employs more than 18,000 people and has more than 600 branches across the UK.

In September, it completed the £2.3bn acquisition of Virgin Money, the London-listed banking group.

Last year, it sparked fury among its high street banking rivals by running a provocative television advertising campaign which mocked them for their approach to serving customers.

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One of the ads was banned for wrongly implying that – unlike its peers – Nationwide was not closing any of its branches.

Mr Parry, who is also a former chair of the mutual Royal London, is not expected to leave imminently, although it is possible that a succession plan could be confirmed at or before Nationwide’s next annual meeting in July.

It was unclear whether any of the mutual’s existing non-executive directors might be in the frame to succeed him.

Nationwide declined to comment on Monday.

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WH Smith buyer ‘faces 12-month ban’ on mass shop closures

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WH Smith buyer 'faces 12-month ban' on mass shop closures

The new owner of WH Smith’s high street chain has effectively been barred from launching a wave of mass store closures for at least 12 months amid plans for rapid restructurings at two other retailers it owns.

Sky News has learnt that WH Smith would have the right to cancel a year-long transitional services agreement (TSA) put in place with Modella Capital – which struck a deal to acquire the business in March – if it launched a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) before the first anniversary of the transaction’s completion.

The clause in the TSA, which enables Modella Capital to continue using WH Smith’s systems after it takes ownership, is significant, according to retail insiders.

WH Smith agreed to sell its 480 high street shops to Modella in a £76m deal, ending 233 years of high street history.

Modella plans to rebrand the chain under the name TG Jones after it takes control.

In recent weeks, Sky News has revealed plans drawn up by Modella to launch CVAs at both Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop, which it has owned for nine and three months respectively.

Both of those restructuring processes have put significant numbers of stores at risk, and industry executives say that, over time, a sizeable part of the WH Smith high street estate could also be at risk.

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A spokesman for Modella said: “We have a number of exciting plans for the future of TGJones.

“A CVA is not on the agenda, as it is a solvent business.”

WH Smith, which will become a pure-play travel retailer once the Modella deal completes, declined to comment further ahead of the completion of the sale.

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill, two of Britain’s leading bread producers, are in talks about a historic merger amid a decades-long decline in the sale of supermarket loaves.

Sky News has learnt that Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, and Hovis, which is owned by investment firm Endless, have been involved in prolonged discussions about a combination of the two businesses.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were ongoing, but that there was no certainty that a deal would be finalised.

Bankers are said to be working with both sides on the talks about a transaction.

A deal could be structured as an acquisition of Hovis by ABF, according to analysts, although details about the mechanics of a merger or the valuations attached to the two businesses were unclear this weekend.

ABF is also said to be exploring other options for the future of Allied Bakeries which do not include a deal with Hovis.

If completed, a merger would unite two of Britain’s best-known ambient food brands, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning strength of man.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair the bread industry’s financial health in recent decades.

The impact of the war in Ukraine on wheat and flour prices has been among the factors increasing inflationary pressures on bread producers, according to the most recent set of accounts for Hovis filed at Companies House last year.

The overall UK bakery market is said to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

The principal obstacle facing a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis would reside in its consequences for competition in the UK market.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector in the UK, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group a larger share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain larger because of the breadth of its product range.

Nevertheless, reducing the number of major supermarket bread suppliers from three to two would be a test of the Competition and Markets Authority’s approach to such industry-reshaping mergers at a time when the watchdog is under intense government scrutiny.

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In January, the government removed the CMA chairman, Marcus Bokkerink, as part of a push to reorient Britain’s economic regulators around growth-focused objectives.

An industry insider suggested that a joint venture involving the distribution networks of Hovis and Kingsmill was a possible, although less likely, alternative to a full-blown merger of the companies.

They added that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of cost savings from such a tie-up.

In its interim results announcement this week, ABF said the performance of Allied Bakeries had continued to struggle.

“Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market,” it said.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we expect to provide an update in [the second half of] 2025.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF described the losses at Allied as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Allied also owns Speedibake, an own-label bread manufacturer.

Hovis has been owned by Endless, a prominent investor in British businesses, since 2020, having previously been owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites and its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF and Endless both declined to comment.

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