Sea drones appear to be giving Ukraine an avenue to strike back at Russia. But what are they?
Another Russian warship listing in the water is probably not the image Vladimir Putin had in mind for his beloved Black Sea fleet – but it does demonstrate the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s sea drones.
The last few days have seen two attacks on Russian ships, both reportedly carried out by Ukrainian unmanned vessels.
In a war where Kyiv does not have the warships to challenge Moscow’s control of the Black Sea directly, the proliferation of sea drones appears to be giving Ukraine an avenue to strike back.
While the strategic value of such attacks is uncertain it is arguably significant for propaganda purposes and as a message to Mr Putin, in the same way as the sinking of the Moskva flagship last year.
Six dead in overnight strikes – Ukraine war latest updates
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Watch: Ukrainian sea drone attacks Russian ship
What happened in the Black Sea?
While questions remain about what exactly has occurred this weekend – and who was responsible – it seems that two Russian ships have been targeted with drones.
The first attack, news of which emerged on Friday, reportedly left the Olenegorsky Gornyak landing ship with serious damage and footage appeared to show it partially submerged as it was towed to port.
A Ukrainian intelligence source said the ship “received a serious breach and currently cannot conduct its combat missions”.
Russia denied the claim, with a regional official saying that no damage or casualties have been reported as a result of the attack.
On Saturday, Moscow claimed that a Russian-flagged tanker was hit by a Ukrainian sea drone close to the Kerch Bridge that connects occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland.
The vessel targeted in Saturday’s attack was delivering oil to Russian troops based in Syria, according to Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in Ukraine’s southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.
The SIG ship, its operator, and its owner, had previously been sanctioned by the US for helping provide jet fuel in Syria.
Ukrainian sea drones have been used in Black Sea attacks. File pic
What are sea drones?
Sea drones, sometimes called USVs, are small, unmanned vessels that operate on or below the water’s surface.
Military analyst Sean Bell told Sky News that these are “relatively cheap” and “provide a relatively fast and low-profile threat to Russian military ships, particularly when the attack is conducted at night”.
He added: “Maritime drones can operate on the sea surface or just below, where it is a lot more difficult for conventional radar to detect.
“They are usually made from carbon fibre to provide an element of stealth capability, and if attacks are conducted at night they are very had to detect with the human eye. And, the sound can be masked by the sea.”
Mr Bell described Ukraine as a “David to Russia’s Goliath” and said it has had to resort to asymmetric attacks to avoid a brutal war of attrition which would favour Russia.
“This has led to the widespread use of drones, whether for tactical surveillance of the battlefield, or for long-range strikes against strategic targets.”
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The landing ship appears to be listing on its port side
What impact can they have on the war?
Drones tend to be relatively small and therefore have limited capacity to carry a large explosive charge, Mr Bell says.
“The damage caused tends to be more psychological than physical, albeit the damage to the Black Sea fleet ships might take some time to repair.
“In some respects, drones are like wasps disrupting a summer BBQ – they are unlikely to cause any lasting damage, but they can be a major distraction to the main effort.”
SIG tanker
But he added that wars can also be won by destroying the enemy’s will to fight rather than purely through victory on the battlefield.
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated he wants to take the war to Russia, to expose the Russian people to the truth behind the rhetoric, and undermine Putin’s power base with the Russian oligarchs.
“Attacks on Russian territory and on high-profile targets – such as the Black Sea Fleet – all increase pressure on the Russian president.”
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Fire crews tackled a fire in the city of Starokostiantyniv, about midway between Kyiv and Lviv.
What does this mean for the future of warfare?
War generally brings a drive to innovate new and more efficient weaponry, and the conflict in Ukraine over the past year-and-a-half has been no different.
“Although it is always difficult to directly link lessons learned from this war into future conflicts,” Mr Bell says, “most military analysts believe that huge expansion in the exploitation of drone technology will have profound implications for future defence planning.”
He gave the example of the UK’s flagship Queen Elizabeth-Class aircraft carriers, which cost around £1bn each.
“Although there is a comprehensive array of defensive capability around such ships, the ease with which the Ukrainians were able to damage Russian ships will inevitably embolden potential enemies.
“And, the pace at which such technology can be adapted and married to potentially huge quantities of drones, will create an enduring challenge for defence planners.”
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
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What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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